ERGONOMICS

ISSN: 0014-0139 (Print) 1366-5847 (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/terg20

A FURTHER STUDY OF ESTIMATING AVERAGES

J. SPENCER

To cite this article: J. SPENCER (1963) A FURTHER STUDY OF ESTIMATING AVERAGES,

ERGONOMICS, 6:3, 255-265, DOI: 10.1080/00140136308930705

To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/00140136308930705

Published online: 27 Apr 2007.

Submit your article to this journal

Article views: 48

View related articles

Citing articles: 3 View citing articles

Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at

https://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=terg20
 A FURTHE]'/, STUDY OF ESTIMATING AVERAGES

By J. SPENCER
University of Bristol

An investigation is described of the types of averaging response made to several

values ora variable when these are presented symbolically or gruphicnl1y. Symbolic
information was presented to subjects on small white cards on which were typed
either 10 or 20 two-digit numbers. Graphical information was presented as 10 or
20 points on inch ruled tenths graph ·paper. Sets of data differed according to
whether they were normally or skew distributed about t-he arithmetic mean value,
and in the extent of scn.t.ter about the mean,
The results confirmed previous work in showing that error of judgment increased
as scatter increased, and to a greater extent with symbolic than with gr-aphical
material. Error wns also greater with skew than with normal information.
Cornparison bet.ween the results obtained wit.h the two types of distribution
showed that the previously reported finding that error also increased with incrensing
amount of information was Incorrect nnd was due to inadequate experiment.al
control of scatter for different amounts of informat.ion.
Analysis of individual performn.nees showed that subjects' responses differed
in type and that their int.rospeot.ive reports related to their performance. In
particular the proportion of judgments which could be classed as of ' arithmetic
mean' type varied significantly wit.h t.hc methods described.
Further experiments are suggested to try to discover which of two possible
models of mental averaging is COIToct and why error increased with increased
scatter in the information.

§ 1. INTRODUCTION
A PREVIOUS study of averaging performance (Spencer 1!l61) showed that people
are able to average sets of ten or twenty two-digit numbers with surprising
accuracy. The factors which affect this accuracy were found to be
(I.) amount of information presented for judgment
(2.) scatter of the information;
(3.) presence of one item which differed markedly from the remaining values
of the set.
All numbers on the sets used were approximately normally distributed
about their respective mean values, so that modal, median and mean values
were practically indistinguishable. This prevented any assessment of the
nature of people's estimates of the average: whether for example, the averaging
process might be such as to produce median responses rather than arithmetic
mean responses. Some departure from arithmetic mean averaging was suggested
by the fact that the effect of single items which differed markedly from the
rest was unduly great.
The experiments to be described were therefore carried out to examine the
nature of averaging responses in a situation which allowed the arithmetic mean
of the presented information to be distinguished from the median and other
possible measures of central tendency.
R2
256 J. Spencer

§ 2. SYMBOLIC AV.ERAGING

2.1 Material and .Method

The information presented for averaging judgments consisted of two-digit
numbers printed on white cards, 3 in. square. The numbers were arranged in
columns of five and varied in three ways ;-
(I.) thcy were distributed either normally or-were skewed about their mean;
(2.) there were either ten or twenty on a card;
(:q they were distrillllt~d
about their mean with either low 01' high scatter.
A total of eight conditions was thus provided by the three factors. Three
cards were prepared for each condition, making a total pack of twenty-foul'.
The pack was presented in a different random order to each subject. The means
and standard deviations of the different cards are shown in the Appendix.
At the beginning of the experiment thc nature of the task was described to
thc subject and hc was shown example cards. He was told to estimate the
single value which best represented those shown on the card. The same
precautions about avoiding too detailed a definition of average were taken as
were described in the previously reported experiment. When the subject was
satisfied that he understood the requirements, the twenty-foul' cards of the
pack were presented for 10 see. each. After each presentation the subject
called out his estimate before the next card was shown to him. He was allowed
unlimited time to make his judgment. When the pack had been judgcd, he was
shown his results and introspections were requested.
Ten male undergraduates and postgraduates with ages mnging from 18 to
27 years, acted as subjects.

2.2 Results
The results are shown in Table I, where it can be seen that mean errors were
remarkably low for all conditions. But it is clear that rnean error was appre-
ciably greater with skewed material in three out of the four possible comparisons.
This provides some confirmation that averaging, in the sense of finding the
arithmetic mean, is affected by the type of distribution presented.
When the mean errors for the whole group of subjects were correlated witb
thc degrec of skewness of dlatribution in the twelve skew distributed examples
used, the product-moment correlation coefficient was r=+0·7ll!l (for signifi-
cance at p=0·05, n= 10, I' should be 3> 0'576.) Subjects therefore over estimated
the effects of ' outliers' in a distribution to a demonstrable and significant
extent. .
The results for modulus, mean errol' are also shown in 'I'ahle 1. They show
that accuracy was lowe!' with skew distributions except for the high scatter
condition with twenty items. For normally distributed material, 01'1'01' increased
with increasing amounts of information, whereas for skewed material, the
effect was reduced 01' even reversed.
A four-factor analysis of variance (distribution X amount X scatter X
subjects) was made on the total errol' scores and yielded a highly significant
second order interaction term (distribution X amount X scatter). Accordingly
three-factor analyues were made for each of the two types of distribution
separately. These showed that amount and scatter and their interaction were
 A Further Study of Estimating Averages 257
Table 1. Menu error's made when averaging symbolic material

Distribution Normal Skew

NU11Ibcr of items 10 20 10 20

Scatter Low High Low High Low High Low High

Mean on-ora
(taking sign in to IH':COUIlL) -0·31.1· -0,20 -0-2ti -0-75 -}·32 -2'07 -1·25 +O·li7

Modulus mean error

(regardless of sign) U·68 1·81 1·16 6·10 2·29 4·83 3·79

• .Each entry is the averuge of 30 judgments-IO subjects each making 3 judgments.

significant for normal distributions but that only scatter was significant for
skew distributions. There was no indication of significant differences between
subjects.
As an additional check on the possibility of systematic differences between
subjects thc total errors for all normally distributed sets combined were
correlated with total errors for all skew distributed sets combined for the ten
subjects. This yielded a product moment correlation coefficient of r= ·-0,\ UJ
which is quite insignificant (for p=0·05 and n =8, r must be ~ 0·6:32). Since
this procedure lumps together what have already been' shown to be important
sources of variation in performance, rank correlations between subjects'
performances on t.he two distributions, were made separately for the different
conditions of "mount and scatter. None of these was significant, so it must be
concluded that there were no marked differences in general averaging ability
between subjects.
A further analysis was made of subjects' performances on skew material.
Each response was compared with the various possible measures of central
tendency that could be used to define the 'card average'. The measures
chosen were (I) arithmctic mean, (2) median, (3) maximin value (i.e. half thc
sum of the lowest and highest values on the card). Responses were classified
according to which of these they most closely resembled. Where a response
was equidistant from two possible measures, or seriously in error, it was
classified as ' not known'. Table 2 shows the results of this procedure.

'I'ublo 2. Types of response made when overeging skew distributed syrnbolic infor-mat.ion ,

Typo of 1'6Sp0I1:;e Number of responses Percentage of tobnl

Medinu 22 18·3
Arithmetic mean 43 35·8
Maximin 44 :16·(\
Not known 11' 9·2
Total 120 100·0

,. Four of the devon were mnjor errors, all ill the direct,ion of out.licrs.

The first point that can be made about Table 2 is the low proportion of
, median' responses. The majority of judgments are biased towards the
outliers as the positive correlation between mean enol' and skewness demon-
strates. If the basis of mental averaging is assumed to be a mechanism which
258 J. Spencer

produces arithmetic mean responses modified by random error, then onc would
expect that the majority of responses would be classified as ' arithmetic mean'
responses. The remaining responses would be approximately evenly divided
betwcen the' median' and the' maximin' classes. This should occur because
the median and the maximin values for a skew set of numbers lie on opposite
sides of the arithmetic mean for that set, with the maximin value lying on the
same side of the mean as the outliers. The low proportion of 'median'
responses and the high proportion of ' maximin' responses in Table 2 make it
appear that the averaging mechanism approximates to a maximin process
rather than to an arithmetic mean process.

2.:3 Introspective Evidence

From the reports made by subjects, it seemed that three methods of
averaging were experienced.
Four subjects said that they used a maximin technique - " J noted the
runge - upper and lower limits - and then 1 picked a centre balance point ",
and another subject" J looked for the highcst and lowest values and took their
average if the numbers between were evenly spaced. "
Five su bjects reported that they used what can be called a 'sampling method'.
One variety of this was to break the information into blocks, estimate these and
obtain a final grand estimate, e.g. " 1 judge'd the average of each column and
thcu compared them to get the average for the whole lot. If I did not have
time to see all the columns, then 1 made the best judgment I could on what]
had seen." The second variety consisted in selecting a sample of the informa-
tion, uvcraging it and then comparing this average with the remaining
information and modifying it accordingly. -The two sub-categories of this
variant are distinguishable by the type of initial sample used. One subject
reported that he used the first items he saw as his starting point, Two others
reported that they picked a group of values close together: " I tried to see all
the numbers as quickly as possible, then I took the mean of the group close
together in value and varied it to allow for extremes. When spaced groups
occurred, I tried to do the separate extremes and 'then get a final average".
" Again I took the average of the most predominant group and then checked it
for the extreme values; if there were a lot of these 1 corrected for them".
The third method which might be called 'synoptic averaging' and is
suggestcd by one subject's report: "1 was trying to pick a middle number-
if there were lots of 40's one 70 and one 20, then I'd choose about 4:3 ". This
seems to be a very different tcchnique from those previously described, being
a less analytic approach to the problem.
Subjects usually expressed grave lack of confidence in their judgments.
The most frequently mentioned attribute of the information which Jed to lack
of confidence was its scattcr: "Values all over the place - I would'nt put any
money on those estimates". Skewness was never mentioned, so presumably
it was very difficult to recognise, but one subject may have been making an
oblique reference to it when, in the course of describing how he averaged the
material using a maximin technique, he made the somewhat cryptic statement:
 A Further Study of Estimating Averages 259

" But if the middle values were not even, then I took a blind swipe - nothing
very systematic". Only two subjects said that they were more confident of
their estimates based on ten rather than twenty numbers.
How well do reported methods agree with the performances achieved by
subjects? Table 3 shows the distributions of responses classified as median,
Table 3. Pcrcnntnges of different types of response with different types of averaging technique.
Symbolic material.

Tochniquu reported Sampling Maximin Synoptic

Number of subjects 5 4

Responses classed as :
l\ledian 2U-U 10·4 41·8
Arit.hrnet.ie menu 46·7 23·0 33·2
Maximin 23·3 58·3 16·7
Not known lO'O 8·3 8·3
Total 100·0 100·0 100·0

arit.hmetic mean or maximin for each of the three main methods reported by
subjects.
There is a significant difference between the distributions achieved by the
sampling and maximin groups. (X 2 = 14.7, which, with 3 degrees of freedom
corresponds to p<O·OI). ~Thc one person representing the synoptic method
had to be left out of the examination because expectancies calculated for his
method were too small to be reliable.
It is clear from these results that type of performance and reported method
are related and that the sampling method gives a very close approach to an
arithmetic mean type.

§ :~. GRAPHICAL AVBRAGING

3.1 Material and Method

The sets of numbers used for symbolic averaging judgments were translated
into a graphi'cal presentation using paper ruled in tenths of an inch. Numbers
were represented by varying distances (1/10 in. per unit) along the y-axis of a
graph, and were indicated by small dots with circles around them. Successive
numbers in a sct were spaced at half-inch intervals along the z-axis of the
graph,
The y-value estimated to represent the average for a particular graph was
selected by positioning a black hair line, inscribed on a celluloid cursor, which
moved in the y-dimension of the graph.
The procedure was idcntical to that described for symbolic averaging except
that the graphical information had to be absorbed and a decision achieved
within the ten seconds viewing time.
Ten undergraduate and postgraduate students of both sexes with ages from
18 to 33 years took part in the experiment.

3.2 Results
It can be seen from Table 4- that mean error with skew distributions was
greater than with normal for three of the four comparisons but the differences
were less pronounced than those obtained with symbolic averaging. The
260 J. Spencer
Tublo 4. Menu errors mndo when nvurugiug graphical material

Dist.ribuuon NOl'IIlul Skew

N umber of items 10 20 10 20

Scatter Low High Low High Low High

Mcuu errors
(l.nking sign into account) -0'17* +0·:18 +0'50 + 1·5U -O'4~ -1·5U -0,33 -2·55

1\ludultlS moan errors

(rognrdless of sign) 0·37 I·3:J 3·38 1·85 2·84 I·7U ;)·4U

* Ench entry is HII average of 30 judgmonts-IO subjects ouch ruukiug a judgments.

product-moment correlation between mean error and skewness of the material

was r=+0·1!l5 which is not stat.istically significant. This means that subjects
were not responding very consistently to the outlying members of the set of
graph points. This was not unexpected because in the previously reported
experiments, the presence of a single' rogue' value had a smaller influence on
graphical than on symbolic judgmcnts.
The modulus mean errors show a more pronounced and consistent effect of
skewness in the material, For cquivalent conditions error was greater for
skewed than for normally distributed information, and showed less change ill
error tLS between I () and 20 items. The tendency for the amonnt of material
presented to affect jndgmcnt when it was normally but not when it was skew
diatributed was therefore com mon to both symbolic ami graphical averaging.
An analysis was made of individual responses to skew material in relation
1.0 possible measures of central tendency by the same method as described for
symbolic material. The results are set out in Table 5.

Tu.hlc fi. Types or respouse mudo when uvol'uging skew distributed graphic infor-mnt.ion,
Type of response Number of responses Percentage of total

Median 17 14·'
Arithmetic IllUUIl ti8 5G·8
Maximin ;)2 26·6
Not known 3" 2·5
Total 120 100·0

* One of tile t.hrue wus n. mnjor error ill the direction opposite to outlier's.

Compared with Table 2, the proportion of ' arithmetic mean' responses was
greater than with symbolic averaging, the increase being derived from nearly
equal reductions in the proportions of ' median' and' maximin' judgments.

:~.:~ l ntrospectioe Evidence

Reports obtained from subjects when they had completed their judgments
suggested that they used one of two ltvemging methods. The first of these
methods is one of achieving' visual balance' of the graph points about the
cursor. The second method involved two stages. Firstly, the thickest cluster
 A Further Study of Estirn.ating Averages 261

of graph points was established and the centre chosen as a preliminary average.
Secondly, this preliminary avemgc was adjusted according to the distribution
of the outliers.
It can be seen from Table 6 that the visual balance method provided a

Table 6. Percentages of different types of response with different types of averaging technique.
Graphical method.

Technique reported Visual balance Cluster

Number of subjects 6 4

Responses classed as :
Median 12·5 16-6
Arithrnet.ic mean 65·2 4;{'8
Maximin Ig·r. 37·fi
Not known 2-8 2·1
Total 100-0 100-0

significantly greater proportion of 'arithmctic mean' responses, (X 2=5·2(i,

which with I degree of freedom corresponds to p<O·05). There is less difference,
however, between the two methods when they are compared for the distribution
of responses into three classes, (X 2 = 5 ·(ifi, which with 2 degrees of freedom -
ignoring the 'not known' category -corresponds to p<O·I)_ With both
methods there was a definite bias towards outliers since thc proportion of
, maximin' responses is roughly twice the proportion of 'median' responses.
These results strongly suggest that the same bias is operating with both
methods of averaging, but that the visual balance technique givcs significantly
more consistent performance in achieving an arithmetic mean type of judgment.
This suggests that the same process is being performed by all subjects, whereas
in the case of symbolic averaging, it was found that different reported techniques
.yielded significantly different proportions of the various types of response.
Only one subject reported that some of the graph points appeared to be
, skewed away from the others'. Hence it seems that it is not much easier to
spot this characteristic on a graph than in a string of printed numbers. Again,
most ofthe subjects were not at all confident of the accuracy of their judgments.

§ 4. DISCUSSION
The results of these experiments show good general agreement with
previously published results (Spencer I fiGI). Performances obtained with skew
distributed information agree with expectations derived from the previous
experiments in which a single deviant value was used. Individual differences of
performance at averaging symbolic material were not statistically significant
and it can be accepted that the same was true for graphic material since
individual differences were found by inspection to be even smaller. The
previous experiments showed that although individual differences existed
between process operators they did not exist between students, and the students
averaged more successfully than the majority of process operators. The
present results could, therefore, be expected because all the subjects were
students.
262 J. Spencer

Although differences octween subjects were small in terms of error there were
uevort.heless significant differences in the averaging methods used, and these
were related to the type of averaging response made. From the introspective
reports that were obtained it appeared that the differences in technique were
primarily differences in the way subjects perceptually structured the presented
information. All the reports described what subjects chose to use as a basis for
estimation: none gave nny clear idea about what they did with the information
when they had perceived it. In other words any computation was apparently
performed unconsciously and only the process of acquisition was recalled.
It was found that judgments were biased towards the outliers to a signifi-
cant extent with sym belie but not with graphical information. In addition,
It significantly greater number of judgments were classifiable as ' arithmetic
menu ' responscs with graphical as compared with symbolic information (X 2 =
7·21 which with 2 degrees of freedom corresponds to p<0·05). Since the same
basic information was used for both conditions it must be concluded that the
graphical form of presentation facilitated arithmetic mean responses. Two
possible explanatory models may be suggested for these results. It may be
thn.t ' averaging' is an inherent characteristic of all sensory systems such that
auy series of similar stimuli or events gives rise to It generalised perception
which corresponds with an average for the series. Some sensory systems lIlay
be better adapted to produce' arithmetic mean' responses than others. The
nltcrnative model is to suppose that averaging involves two stages or mechan-
isms, oue of which is perceptual and the other computational. The computing
stnge is ut a high level of the central nervous system and deals with informat.ion
from all t.hc relevant sensory ohannols. I t might be further suggested that
this ccnt.ral com putor is so constituted that it inherently gives arithmetic
mean responses provided thaf the perceptual system transmits the information
without distortion. At present it is impossible to decide in favour of one of these
models rat.her than the other, but it seems more probable on general grounds
thnt the second is nearer the true facts.
A striking feature of the results is the fact that although increases in
information lead to increases in error for normally distributed information,
this is not consistently the case with skew distributed information. This was
probably due to inadequate control of the normally distributed material in
that when the amount of information increased so did the standard deviation.
This was not so with the skew distributed material. The rise in modulus mean
enol' which occurs with increased amounts of normally distributed information
is, therefore, almost ocrtainly due to therise in standard deviation. It was not
upprcciatcd when the material was prepared how sensitive people would be to
small but consistent changes in scatter. The same explanation applies to some
of the results described in the previous paper (Spencer HJ61 , top of p. 318).
This docs not affect the principal findings or discussions of the present paper
which are based almost entirely on the skew information results. It must
now be concluded, however, that performance does not deteriorate in a
consistent manner as the amount of information is increased over the range
studied in these experiments.
A mom general question is raised by the results reported in this and the
previous paper. Why should performance deteriorate as the scatter of the
information increases! The present results show t hut the modulus mean error
 A Further 8tnrly of Estimatiny Averages 263

and the "scanter of information (measured in terms of standard deviation) am

highly correlated. (Normal material: symbolic, r= +0,073; graphic, r=
+0·!)(i!J. Skew material: symbolic, r=+0·688 ; graphic, r=+0·708).
Several reasons for this close relationship suggest themselves. The most
obvious explanation is that it is in some way more difficult to average informa-
tion with high than with low scatter. It is also possible, however, that
performance reflects the subject's attitude which he spontaneously develops
about the accuracy required from the appearance of the information. 01' it may
be that the range of values within which a response appears satisfactory to the
to the subject widens as scatter increases. A way in which the correctness of
these suggestions might be tested would be to measure the time taken for
averaging as a function of scatter. If the effect is due to the greater difficulty of
handling high scatter information one would expect these times to rise with
increase in scatter. The opposite might occur if the effect were due to the
spontaneous development of an attitude regarding the required accuracy. If
the third possibility were true there should be no relationship between scatter
of information and averaging time.
Finally, the graphical averaging performances obtained in the present
experiments can be compared with those obtained by Bartlett and Mackworth
(1 !J50) in their investigations of bomb-aiming performance in the Royal Air
Force. Their problem was to improve the accuracy of bomb-aiming when the
position of the target was indicated by flares dropped from aircraft of Path
Finder Force. Flaro patterns were simulated by holes in a sheet of brass
illuminated from below. This moved towards the subject in a manner which
gave thc effect of thc gradual approach of the target area as seen from an
uircruft flying towards it. The aiming display oonsisted of a cross of light sccn
by reflection from a strip of glass, so that it appeared to be superimposed in the
plane of the target flares. The subject had to align the cross laterally with
respect to the target flares and then wait until the cross came into thc correct
position along the line of flight, before pressing a 'bomb release' button,
which stopped the movement of the brass slide. The target was defined as thc
arithmetic mean position of the target flares i.e. the intersection of the lines
defining the mean position in the lateral and line-of-flight dimensions. The
subjects were, therefore, performing a two-dimensional graphical averaging
operation.
Bartlett and Mackworth found that the chief determinants of accuracy
were thc compactness and the shape of the target patterns. Accuracy deterior-
ated as pattern became less compact and judgments were biased towards the
outliers of the pattcrn. Compactness and shape in Bartlett and 1\fackworth's
experiments are equivalent to scatter and symmetry of the distributions in the
present experiments. Despite the large differences between the two experi-
mental situations there is clear agreement in the main findings.
The effect of outliers was however, more pronounced in the bomb-aiming
experiments than in the present ones where they affected performance signifi-
cantly only when information was presented symbolically: with graphical
material the effect was still present but very much less. A feature of'Mackwort.h's
experiments was that the flares forming a pattern were not equally bright.
They were gradcd in brightness to simulate the effect of haze usually encountered
over target areas, so that a more distant flare would look much less bright than
2M .:t. Spencer

one ncar by. This may, as Bartlett and Mackwort.h suggested, have created an
illusion of distance for the outliers, so that their deviation appeared to be
gmtLter tluu. it really was.

The nuf.hor is grateful to P. F. Powoslund for helpful discussion and to the students who
volunteered to be subjects.
The work WlLS carried out with tho finunciul support of the Depurt.ment of Seiennifie and
Industrial Rcsearcl r.

APPI~NI)LX
Details of the Norll/ally Distributed. Sets of Data

Sot' 1\101111 Stnndard deviation Number of items

I fi2·:l 1·87 If)
~ UU·:I 2·2a 10
:I U'!I ]olJ7 10
4 2:1·U 8'40 10
28·2 ;'·20 10
"
U
7
:14·4
~2'O
G·50
4·10
10
20
8 2(i·' 3·2f.i 20
!I :11·9 4·10 20
II) 4!i'S 20'~ 20
II :{!i.lj Ilj·7 20
12 !)o·!) 18·0 20

... Sets 1, 2, a, 7, 8 n.nd D were Lhe 'low scetacc ' sct.s, tho remainder' high scntter '.

Details oj the Skew SC/8 (if Data

~tlllldlll'J Number
~ot,· l\Jenn 1\:lcdinH Muxirnin. dcvin.t.ion Skewness'[ uf Items

I 4;"5 48,,, 42·;' 7·:1:1 -1·)f) 10

~ 82·fi 78·:; 84·1) 8·41 +1·4:1 II)
:I :11) .1) :l2'!i 21;·0 (j'59 -1,14 10
4 71),4 S8·0 7:3·5 18·(;;) -1·:lU IU
r, ;):I'~ 20':) 42·0 J5·al +I';J] ]l)
(; 41),2 :i2'r, 47·0 14·27 +1·(;2 10
7 41)·2 42·5 37·5 7·47 -0,9;) 20
8 48·25 50'r, 45·5 8·U4 -0·78 20
iJ 71)·;; U7'1) 74·0 9·00 +1·17 20
10 :18·4 44·0 :12·0 14·03 -1,20 20
II (HJ. H; H}';' 7Ii'!) Hi·fi2 +1·4U 20
I~ 24·15 ] ,.f) 32·5 17·27 +1·1(; 20

* ~OLH 1,2,3,7,8 uud !) WCl'U the' low Meatier' sots, the romuiuder 'high scnttcr ".
t Skewness was est.imuted ItS 3 (mcfill-mediau)/6.

A triul and error method was adopted in preparing the skew distributed sets of
numbers. A dcxired mean value and two values to define It range were chosen to
give either IL high 0" IL low scatter. This range was then divided into five sub-ranges
which diminished in width from one end to the other of the total mnge. Into each
sub-runge two (01' foul') numbers were fitted from random number tables. The
mean lend median of the set were calculated lend the extreme numbers were adjusted
to increase their difference if it appeared to he too small.
 A Further Study of Estimating Averages 261'i

Cet ar-t.icle est consacre it une etude de I'est.imat.ion de la moyenne stir plusicurs vnriubles
lorsque cellos-e! sont presentees, soif sous forme symbolique, soit eous forme gruphique.
L'jnforrnat.ion symbolique est presentee nux sujets sur de petites cartes blanches 01'1 Bout
impruue» Bait 10, soit 20 Hombres it deux chiffres. L'infonnation graphique est, presentee au
moyen de J 0 ou 20 points partes sur du pepier R graphiques gr-adue en dixiemcs de pouce. LeH
donnees different pars leurs diatr-ibut.icns qui peuvent et.re OU, symcu-iques ou asyrnetr-iques pOl'
rapport it ln. rnoyenne ar-inhmet.ique et par leur dispersion nut.our de cette moyenne. Los
rl~~liltats. tout, conunc ceux des recherches entcriouros, rnonbrenf que l'erreur d'nppreoiuuion
crolt. lorsquc In dispersion augmcnto ct que cut. nceroiasemcnt est. pins important pour I'Inforuuu.ion
aytuboliquc qne pour rinformntion grnphique. L'crrcur eat. egnlement. plus irnport nnoe duns
le ens de In. dista-ilnn.ion usymet.rjque qtle duns lc cas do In. dist.ribut.lon symct.rfque.
La compu.rnison des result.ots oht enus avec Ius deux types do dist.i-ibut.ions, mont.re quo l'errctu-
no emil, pm~ en fonct.ion de In quant.ite d'Informur.ion presentee, corrtrn.iremcrrt it ce qu'Iudiqunicnt.
certaines recherches »ntcrieures : muis duns cos recherches, il raul. inct-iminer Ie oont.rolo inaufflsnnt,
de In dist.rf but.ion des rtiverses quent.ites d'Infot-mat.ion.
L'onalysc des pcrfot-numcca individuelles monta'e qu'il existe pluaieurs t.ypes de reponse ct.
que Ie t.ypc ddcrif par los sujeta se fondant sur leur int.rospoct.ion est. en su-pport. nvec leur
perfor-mance. En part.ioulior-, In, proportion des est.imnt.ions que I'ou pout, designer cotnrne (Stunt,
<In typo v moycnne ru-it.hmet.ique ", vat-ic significet.ivemcnt avec los t.uct.iqucs decritcs PUl' los
sujets.
II cat sllggl~rc oer-tn.incs experiences fuuures qui devm.iont, pet-mct.ta-c de determiner loqucl dOR
deux modclcs possj bles de l'eet.imat.ion de la moyenne est. 10 lion ct. pom-quoi l'crreur el'oit, en
IUClllO temps q'u'n.ugtuent.e In d'isperaion de I'Juformnt.ion.

Es wird untorsucht., auf welchc Art der Mit.tclwerf einor Roiho von \Verten oiner Vru-inhlen
gefoichiltz,L wirrl , wei III diese \Vete symbolisch oder graphisch dru-gebot.en wet-den. AI~ syrnbolischc
Information wurden den Verauchspersonen klcinc weissc Karten mit, 10 odor 20 xwcisr elllgcn
Kut-ten vorgelegt.. Cruphischc Lnfot'mat.ion wurdc in Form von 10 odor 211 Purikt.en nuf
l\Jillilnetcrpapier gegebeu. Die Dutonreihen untersohieden Rich dndurch. dass sic ent.woder
not-mal odcr ungleich urn dell nr-it.hmcr.ischcn l\littelwert, vert.eilt, wnren , und dnss sic vcrschicdcu
st.nrk nm den Mlt.tolwer-t sbreut.en.
Die Heault.a.te bestiitigten friihero Ergehuisse dur-in, dess die Beurteilungs-Fel-ler mit, del'
St.reutmg zunnhmen. und des in gr-oeserem Auamaxs bei del' symbolischen ala hei del' gt-aphischen
Juformnr.ion. Die Fehler waren nuch grosser, wenn die Verteilung UUl dns m-it.hmet.ische l\lit.lel
unglcich WOT. Del' frUhere Befund, rlass die Fehler mit der Znnahme del' dnrgebot.onen Datcn
grosser "'unlon, cnvies sich als irrig, Er beruhte auf einer ungenligenden Beriick$liehtignng del'
St,r-cuung hoi vcrschiedener Zuhl del' dargehotencn Daten.
Dio Analyse dol' individuellen Leist,ung zeigte. dass die Art. del' Sc:hiil.zung del' VersuchsperRonen
wcch."ldto und dH~~ die selhst,amtlyt,ischen Angaben immer 7.U1' Lei:.<t.ung in Hez,iehung st.anden.
BC~()lldel'~ die Znhl dol' Urteile. die aIR" arit,hmetiseher Mit,tclwel't,-Typ" klassifiziert worden
konnte, itndert, sich f>.ignifiknnt; mit, del' i\lethode des Schiitzens.
Es werden weitere E:'xperimcntc vorgeschlngen, llln Zli crmit,teln, welche Art, des Sehiitzens
richt,ig ist, und warum die Fehler hei grosserer Streuung del' Infol'mnt,ion zunehmen.

REFEREXCES
HAHTLETT, F. C., and l\[ACKwORTH. N. H., 19;')0, Planned 8eein{/, Air :l\lillisj,I·~·. A.P,313gB
(London: .H.1\LS.O.),
S"r,;xCEH, :T.. I ll61, Estimflt,ing 11 vCI'ages. fiJrgonomit;8, 4, 317-328.