Chapter 8

Uncertainty Quantification of Spray

Nozzle Fatigue Analysis Under Transient
Load

Zhenyu Liu, Lijuan Li, Liping Zhang, Hui Li, Xuejiao Shao, Lu Jiang,
and Ying Zhang

Abstract In this paper, the randomness concept of input parameters is introduced

into the design of nuclear equipment, and the uncertainty analysis of input param-
eters is carried out for fatigue analysis. Taking the pressurizer spray nozzle as the
research object, considering the random fluctuation of temperature and pressure of
the transient load, the reliability and distribution of the fatigue usage are obtained
by performing fatigue analysis according to the fatigue analysis method of nuclear
power equipment with Monte Carlo sampling method. Taking section No.3 as an
example, the thermal analysis and stress analysis models are established. Through
the parameter sensitivity analysis, the relative sensitivity of the fatigue usage to
each input parameter is obtained. From the results, it is clear which parameters have
a significant impact on the results. The results can further optimize the structural
design of the nuclear power equipment and improve its fatigue resistance, which has
great application value to the life extension of nuclear power equipment.

Keywords Uncertainty quantification · Nuclear equipment · Parameter

sensitivity · Fatigue reliability · Reactor structural mechanics

8.1 Introduction

The main structures of the nuclear power equipment are very complicated, which
are subjected to the fluctuating load from various transient conditions during the
service life thus generating alternating stress. Damage occurs at one or some high
stress areas and then accumulates, resulting in performance degradation, crack initi-
ation, expansion until complete fracture. As a result, fatigue damage occurs, causing
serious accidents. Due to severe safety requirements, the effects of these loads must
be fully considered in the reactor design, because fatigue damage can occur even
when the stress is much less than the yield strength of the material [1]. However,

Z. Liu (B) · L. Li · L. Zhang · H. Li · X. Shao · L. Jiang · Y. Zhang

Science and Technology On Reactor System Design Technology Laboratory, Nuclear Power
Institute of China, No. 328 Changshun Avenue, Chengdu 610200, Sichuan, P. R. China
e-mail: zhenyuliuchn@foxmail.com

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 91

J. Xu and K. M. Pandey (eds.), Mechanical Engineering and Materials,
Mechanisms and Machine Science 100,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-68303-0_8
92 Z. Liu et al.

for the fatigue analysis of structures, the deterministic method is used in the current
nuclear equipment design [2, 3]. It is considered that the material properties, struc-
tural dimensions and bearing loads are all specific values, regardless of the random
fluctuations of the input, thus not taking into account the calculation error caused by
the uncertainty of the design parameters.
In order to reflect the fatigue performance of the analyzed object more realistically,
it is necessary to consider the uncertainty of the input parameters [4]. The uncertainty
quantification study of input parameters of fatigue analysis can not only analyze the
failure probability, which can guide the structural design according to the allowable
failure probability value, but also fully consider the sensitivity of each parameter to
further optimize the structural design [5–7].
In this paper, the nuclear power equipment pressurizer spray nozzle is taken as
the research object, and the uncertainty analysis of the input parameters of fatigue
analysis is carried out. The randomness is introduced into the transient fluctuation,
and the sensitivity of the transient parameters is analyzed, thus proposing advice for
structural optimization. The research results show that the uncertainty analysis of the
parameters can obtain the influence degree of each parameter on the analysis results,
which can greatly guide the structure design and optimization.

8.2 Method

8.2.1 Nuclear Power Equipment Fatigue Analysis Method

Since the structure of nuclear power equipment is mostly designed by the finite life
design method (safe life design method), the amplitude of the alternating stress is
generally higher than the yield limit of the material. Therefore, in the fatigue analysis
of nuclear power equipment, the maximum stress may not be considered only, but the
total fatigue damage should be estimated according to a certain cumulative damage
theory. The alternating load amplitude of the nuclear power equipment structure is
sometimes non-constant. If the amplitude of the alternating stress is always calcu-
lated according to the maximum amplitude, it is too conservative. An approximate
engineering treatment method is to use the linear fatigue cumulative damage theory.
The fatigue damage of the material is independent under various stresses and the
total damage can be linearly accumulated. The most representative method of these
is the PalmgrenMiner theory, and Eq. (8.1) defines Miner damage rule:
 ni
U= (8.1)
Ni

Among them, ni is the cycle under the alternating stress; N i is the allowable cycle
under the alternating stress, which is determined by the S–N curve, U is the fatigue
usage. Figure 8.1 is a schematic diagram of linear accumulation of fatigue damage.
8 Uncertainty Quantification of Spray Nozzle Fatigue … 93

Fig. 8.1 The diagram of linear accumulation of fatigue damage

In the figure, Fig. 8.1a shows the alternating stress and Fig. 8.1b shows the S–N
curve.
According to the requirements of fatigue analysis in ASME [8], the transient
calculation of the model is first carried out to obtain the stress time history of each
position on the structure. Then, the peak point of the stress is selected as the event
point in the fatigue analysis. The stress at these event points is used as the input value
of the event storage stress. Combining with the corresponding cycle number and the
material fatigue curve, the fatigue analysis coefficient can be calculated by ANSYS
fatigue analysis module. The calculation method of the fatigue usage is as follows.
Each point is subjected to a plurality of cyclic stresses, and the cumulative fatigue
usage is calculated by the following steps (1) to (5):
(1) Select the extreme point of each stress parameter as the event point and the
load point for each transient stress, and record each transient as 1,2,3,…,n, and
the corresponding cycle number is specified as n1 ,n2 ,n3 ,…,nn ;
(2) Determine the magnitude S a1 ,S a2 ,S a3 ,…,S an of the alternating stress intensity
required for the design calculation for each stress cycle;
(3) For the magnitude of the alternating stress intensity in step (2), when each
type of cyclic stress is considered separately, the number of permitted cycles
is determined according to the design fatigue curve N 1 ,N 2 ,N 3 ,…,N n ;
(4) Calculate the fatigue usage using damage theory U = ni
Ni
;
(5) The fatigue usage is less than 1.

8.2.2 MCMC Sampling Technology

Markov Chain-Monte Carlo (MCMC) [9–11] simulation is a method of determining

the probability of failure Pf by mass sampling to each random variable, which is also
called random sampling method or statistical test method. It is the most intuitive,
accurate, and most information-intensive method, which is the most effective method
for high-order nonlinear problems of structural reliability calculation.
The theoretical basis comes from the Law of Large Numbers of probability theory:
94 Z. Liu et al.

Let x 1 , x 2 , …, x n be n independent random variables, if they are from the same

parent, which have the same distribution and the same finite mean and variance,
denoted by μ and σ 2 , respectively. Then, for any ε > 0, we have Eq. (8.2) below.
 n  
1  
 
lim P  x i − μ ≥ ε = 0 (8.2)
n→∞ n 
i=1

Bernoulli Trials: If the probability of occurrence of random event A is P(A), in n

independent experiments, the frequency of event A occurs is m, and the frequency is
W (A) = m/n. Then for any ε > 0, we have Eq. (8.3) below.
 m  
 
lim P  − P(A) < ε = 1 (8.3)
n→∞ n
The core content of the Monte Carlo method is to obtain the ratio of the number of
structural failures to the total number of samples by a large number of samples, which
is the failure probability of the structure. As the number of simulations increases, the
Monte Carlo method will gradually become more accurate. Therefore, in structural
reliability calculations, Monte Carlo calculations are considered to be quasi-accurate
calculations, while the accuracy of the other approximation method is often verified
by the Monte Carlo method.

8.2.3 Calculation Model

The pressurizer spray nozzle and the adjacent structure mainly include the upper
head, the surfacing layer, the thermowell, the safety end, the spray head connecting
pipe and the forging, etc. Considering that the analyzed object has the axisymmetric
geometric characteristics, the calculation is performed using a two-dimensional
axisymmetric model in ANSYS. Two models are built in total. The first is the thermal
analysis model, which is established by the two-dimensional 8-node thermal element
(PLANE77). The second is the thermal stress analysis model, which is established by
the 8-node harmonic element (PLANE83), which is used to calculate the secondary
stress due to thermal gradient and different material expansion coefficients. Both
models contain non-pressure boundary portions such as nozzle tips and heat pipes,
while also considering the effect of the weld overlay on heat transfer.
In order to eliminate the influence of the boundary effect, the nozzle and the lower
part of the cylinder should be extended. Equation (8.4) defines the extension length.

L = 2.5 Rm t (8.4)

where Rm is the average radius of the nozzle or the head, and t is the corresponding
minimum wall thickness. After calculation, the extension length of the nozzle and
8 Uncertainty Quantification of Spray Nozzle Fatigue … 95

the head should be at least 0.0582 m and 0.732 m, respectively. Then the actual
extension length is 0.08 m and 0.803 m respectively.
The types of loads considered include self-weight, design external loads, LLSE,
thermal expansion loads, and normal and upset condition transients. In thermal anal-
ysis, the transient temperature is applied to the inner surface, and other surfaces that
are not in contact with water or steam are subjected to adiabatic boundary conditions.
In the stress analysis, internal pressure is applied to the inner surface of the structure,
and the external mechanical load and hydrostatic end force generated by the internal
pressure are applied to the top of the extension of the nozzle. And a circumferential
and vertical displacement constraint is applied on the bottom of the lower cylinder
of the model.

8.3 Result and Discussion

In this paper, section No. 3 is taken as an example to carry out calculations. From
the point of view of the pressure, the wall thickness of section No. 3 should be as
thick as possible, while from the perspective of thermal stress, in order to avoid
excessive thermal gradient of section No. 3, which will greatly affect its fatigue
performance, its thickness should be reduced if necessary. Therefore, in order to
achieve the balance between the two schemes in the structural design, it is necessary
to carry out quantitative study of the transient load uncertainty, including the pressure
and temperature, thus calculating the sensitivity of parameters to the fatigue strength
using design transient and allowable cycle numbers. Finally, suggestions from the
point of view of mechanics can be proposed for structural design and optimization
according to the calculation results.
When the fatigue analysis is carried out to the pressurizer spray nozzle in normal
and upset conditions, a total of 40 transients are involved in the fatigue calculation,
and the fatigue usage of the inner point of section No. 3 is calculated to be 0.37851.
After sorting out, transient combinations that contribute most to the final results are
obtained, which can be seen in the Table 8.1.
Therefore, the sum of the fatigue usage of transients 4, 7, 10, 12 and 16 is 0.28417,
which accounts for 75.08% of the final result. In this paper, randomness is introduced

Table 8.1 Several transient combinations that contribute most to fatigue usage
No Transient 1 Time Point 1 Transient 2 Time Point 2 Cycle number Fatigue usage
(s) (s)
1 10 78.8 10 230.8 54,000 0.19528
2 16 1816.5 16 3609.5 21,000 0.03769
3 7 27.5 7 800.0 2500 0.03046
4 4 1200.0 12 39.0 2000 0.02074
96 Z. Liu et al.

into transient data fluctuations to study the sensitivity of fatigue strength to input
parameters, including temperature and pressure.
Transient fluctuations are considered that temperature and pressure data points
obey a normal distribution within a certain range. In order to process transient data
efficiently, each transient is processed into dimensionless variables. In other words,
the value of each data point is divided by the first data point of each transient.
Finally, 10 temperature–time curves and 5 pressure–time curves are obtained after
the process.
Taking the first data point as an example, the uncertainty quantization assumed
in this paper of the parameters is shown in Table 8.2.
The above parameters are sampled using Monte Carlo method. The Latin square
sampling method is chosen to avoid sample point repetition, and the sampling
frequency is 3000 times. Based on OPTIMUS platform, fatigue analysis process
is established for nuclear power equipment, as can be seen in Fig. 8.2, with which a
data pool of input random variables is generated. Taking the first stochastic input vari-
able as an example, the probability density function and the cumulative distribution
function graph are shown in Fig. 8.3 (Taking the first data point as an example).

Table 8.2 Uncertainty quantization assumed in this paper

Transient Temperature 1 (°C) Pressure (MPa) Temperature 2 (°C)
number Average Standard Average Standard Average Standard
deviation deviation deviation
4 213.89 10.69 2.07 0.10 213.89 10.69
7 213.89 10.69 2.07 0.10 213.89 10.69
10 345.00 17.25 15.51 0.78 345.00 17.25
12 345.00 17.25 15.51 0.78 345.00 17.25
16 345.00 17.25 15.51 0.78 345.00 17.25

Fig. 8.2 Fatigue analysis process for nuclear power equipment based on OPTIMUS platform
8 Uncertainty Quantification of Spray Nozzle Fatigue … 97

Fig. 8.3 Probability density function and cumulative distribution function of the first data point

Taking the obtained sample data as an input, the fatigue analysis of the nuclear
power equipment is performed, and the fatigue usage of each sample is obtained.
At the same time, the parameter sensitivity analysis is carried out, and the corre-
lation coefficient (Pearson) between the transient input parameters and the fatigue
usage is obtained as well, as shown in Fig. 8.4 and Table 8.3.
Therefore, from the results, after five transient calculations, the fatigue usage of
section No. 3 is more sensitive to changes in temperature 2 data, and less sensitive
to transient pressure changes. Some inspiration can be obtained that in the structural
design, from the perspective of design life, the section No. 3 should be appropriately
thinned to reduce the thermal stress gradient during operation and reduce the fatigue
usage under the condition of satisfying the pressure requirements.

Fig. 8.4 The result of

correlation coefficient
calculation
98 Z. Liu et al.

Table 8.3 The summary of correlation coefficient calculation

Transient Number P3U_in P3Sn1_in P3Sn2_in
4 Temperature 1 0.00686 0.06615 −0.09945
Pressure 0.02431 0.02709 0.05680
Temperature 2 0.06089 0.00581 0.12589
7 Temperature 1 −0.00473 0.10689 −0.31247
Pressure −0.00885 -0.04816 −0.03382
Temperature 2 0.33761 0.85050 0.44026
10 Temperature 1 −0.11815 -0.05421 0.22461
Pressure 0.00722 0.18774 −0.02298
Temperature 2 0.88492 0.23845 −0.13772
12 Temperature 1 −0.03692 -0.06088 0.01226
Pressure 0.02690 0.12920 −0.06825
Temperature 2 0.04568 0.16483 −0.14625
16 Temperature 1 −0.04783 0.02073 0.26300
Pressure 0.05657 0.12006 0.01626
Temperature 2 0.24098 0.11669 −0.10351

8.4 Conclusions

In this paper, the uncertainty is introduced into the transient load, and the uncertainty
quantification study of spray nozzle fatigue analysis is carried out. The results are as
follows:
(1) Based on the Optimus platform, this paper introduces the concept of uncertainty
quantification into the complete process of fatigue analysis and evaluation of
nuclear power equipment, establishes the fatigue strength reliability calcula-
tion process, and realizes the transition from the deterministic theory to the
fatigue probability evaluation of nuclear power equipment. The results of the
mechanical analysis are closer to the physical reality.
(2) This paper takes the pressurizer spray nozzle as the research object. The calcu-
lation results show that for the transient and cycle times of this paper, consid-
ering the fatigue design and ensuring the pressure bearing requirements, the
wall thickness of the section No. 3 should be appropriately thinned, which can
not only improve the economics of the structure, but also extend the life of the
equipment structure.
(3) In the design phase, the uncertainty quantification study of input parameters
can be used to further optimize the structure by considering the randomness of
the parameters more widely. The analysis method of this paper can be extended
to other equipment in the field of nuclear power, providing quantitative analysis
means and effective tools for the reliability of fatigue analysis.
8 Uncertainty Quantification of Spray Nozzle Fatigue … 99

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