INTRODUCTION TO FUTURES THINKING

AND SCENARIO PLANNING

Farrell Rasu
Program Pengajian Pengurusan dan Kepimpinan
National Institute of Public Administration (INTAN)
 Course Coverage
Time/ 0830-1030 1030- 1100- 0100- 0230-0430
Date 1100 0100 0230

Day 1 Introduction To Futures Thinking Break Models Break Phase 1: Pre-

And Scenario Planning in Scenario
Scenario Building
Building

The course content is a work of collaboration (2014) between:

 Course Coverage
Time/ 0900-1030 1030- 1100-0100 0100- 0230-0430
Date 1100 0230

Day 2 Phase 1: Pre-Scenario Break Phase 2: Scenario Break Phase 2:

Building Building Scenario
Building

The course content is a work of collaboration (2014) between:

 Course Coverage
Time/ 0900-1030 1030- 1100-0100 0100- 0230-0430
Date 1100 0230

Day 2 Phase 3: Post-Scenario Break Phase 3: Strategy Break Group

Building Formulation Presentation
Summary

The course content is a work of collaboration (2014) between:

Course
Objectives
1. Understand the important concepts in FTSP;

2. Understand the 5 basic approaches/

models in scenario building;

3. List down the steps needed in

implementing FTSP initiatives.

FTSP Content
1. Overall view regarding FTSP
2. Understanding Futures Thinking Concept
3. Understanding Scenario Planning
Concept
4. Link between Strategic Thinking,
Strategic Planning, Strategic
Management and FTSP
5. Steps Involved in Executing FTSP
Initiative
6. Summary.
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 “What You are Now is
What You Manifest/Focus
Previously”

“Whatever you are thinking

& feeling today is
creating your FUTURE”

“You are the AUTHOR

of your Destiny”
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• Long-term - “where do we want to be?”
• Short-term - “so what do we do next?”
Watch :

Why is it
Important to
Understand
Futures
Thinking?
Futures
Thinking
Scenario
Planning
What is FTSP? “Futures Thinking and
Scenario Planning (FTSP) is
basically an interdisciplinary
field of knowledge for
studying the futures and
generating a number of
plausible scenarios for us to
decide on a future course of
action.”
- Rafael Ramirez (2015) and Rene Rohrbeck
(2017)
 “FTSP is the study and understanding of how future works”
– Dr. Verne Wheelwright, author of It’s your future: Make it a good one

“FTSP are methods to reassess and challenge our thought

processes and practices in order to response to the new insights”
– Dr. Rachel Armstrong

“Future is a place where we will live tomorrow, thus it important

that we try to grasp and understand it”
– Dr. Fabienne Goux-Bandiment

“FTSP helps in making preferable futures more probable”

– Dr. Linda Goff

“In FTSP, ask yourself, what is your metaphor or narrative of the

future? If you can figure out your narrative of the future, you can
use your story and leverage on it, to enable you to achieve your
preferred future”
– Dr. Sohail Inayatullah
 Scenario
“A discipline for developing multiple imagined Planning
futures in which decisions about the future can be
played out.”
- Dr. Thomas Chermack (2011), Scenario Planning Institute, Colorado
State University

“A systemic method of thinking creatively about

possible complex and uncertain futures.”
- Gary Peterson et al (2003), University of Wisconsin

“A tool for improving decision making against a

background of possible future environments”
- Dana Mietzner and Guido Reger (2005), University Potsdam, Germany
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FTSP = Foresighting / Strategic Foresight,
Futurology / Future Studies
FTSP Overview
Strategic Thinking is a thinking skill in ‘seeing’ issues,
problems and opportunities in a larger and broader
Futures perspective and being able to understand the inter-relation of
all the elements involved so that the best course of action
Thinking could be formulated to achieve the desired goals

Scenario Strategic Management

Planning
Analysis → Formulation → Implementation → Evaluation

Strategic Strategic
Thinking Planning
FTSP Concept

Future A
One
Future VS.
Future Future
B C
Types of The Future
Wildcards/
Might happen Possible Surprise
(Basic range of alternatives) Future
We thought of as low
Plausible probability high impact
Could happen Future events
(Most likely)

Probable
Future
Likely to happen
(Likely given current trends)

Preferred
We want to happen Future
(The desired future)
Watch:

Malaysia
in 2050
Source: ASM,322022
Source: ASM,
33 2022
 34
Source: ASM, 2022
Source: ASM,352022
Source: ASM, 202236
 37
Source: ASM, 2022
 38
Source: ASM, 2022
 Aging Society = 7% >
65 YO

In 2020:
34.3 million population
2.4 million aged > 65

In 2050 = 15% > 65 YO

Star Online (3 Nov 2018)

26 April 2017
FTSP Uses & Output
FTSP is used to facilitate the following:
• Identify future opportunities, barriers & risks
• Critical thinking into long term development
• Participatory engagement
• Shaping the future through policy intervention & creation

Output includes but not limited to:

• Scenarios
• Policy papers
• Blueprints & Roadmaps
• Strategic white papers
• FTSP Report
Futures thinking in Policy Making
• Make better policy through understanding the long-term
issues or challenges shaping the future.
• Identify and test the assumptions that are influencing how the
policy issue is being considered and update those
assumptions as the world changes.
• Explore beyond the assumed future to consider a much wider
range of possible contexts.
• Generate new insights into possible future developments
• Think through future intended and unintended consequences
different contexts.
• Reduce risk by developing policy that is more resilient to
changing conditions and takes advantage of new
opportunities.