SPE-217318-MS

Quantifying Variation in Unconventional Gas Production Using the

Continuous Wavelet Transformation

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Matthew McPherson, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia; Dan Kuznetsov, Arrow
Energy, Brisbane, QLD, Australia

Copyright 2023, Society of Petroleum Engineers DOI 10.2118/217318-MS

This paper was prepared for presentation at the Asia Pacific Unconventional Resources Symposium held in Brisbane, Australia on 14 – 15 November 2023.

This paper was selected for presentation by an SPE program committee following review of information contained in an abstract submitted by the author(s). Contents
of the paper have not been reviewed by the Society of Petroleum Engineers and are subject to correction by the author(s). The material does not necessarily reflect
any position of the Society of Petroleum Engineers, its officers, or members. Electronic reproduction, distribution, or storage of any part of this paper without the written
consent of the Society of Petroleum Engineers is prohibited. Permission to reproduce in print is restricted to an abstract of not more than 300 words; illustrations may
not be copied. The abstract must contain conspicuous acknowledgment of SPE copyright.

Abstract
Within the Queensland energy industry, unconventional gas, such as Coal Seam Gas (CSG) production holds
significant importance. This study employs the Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) to analyze variations
in CSG production, aiming to comprehend its complex production dynamics. The primary objectives of
this research are to identify and categorize gas rate production variations, quantify their attributes—such as
frequencies, durations, and magnitudes—and explore their integration into forecasting models.
The study's results demonstrate successful identification and categorization of significant variations,
specifically categorizing two types of variations impulse and step events. Through the CWT, the attributes
of these events are quantified. Moreover, the obtained attributes are used to refine production forecasting via
applying recreated production variations to conventionally smooth forecasting models such as type curves
or history matching.
The broader impact of the study lies in its ability to provide deeper insights into CSG reservoir behavior.
By uncovering patterns often obscured by traditional analysis methods, the CWT approach allows for better
understanding of the operational dynamics. Quantifying the production variation into meaningful metrics
results in more accurate and reliable production forecasts and more informed decision-making in optimizing
production strategies.

Introduction
Unconventional gas sources such as Coal Seam Gas (CSG), have become essential contributors to
the Queensland energy portfolio, prompting the need for comprehensive understanding and effective
management of their production dynamics (Geoscience Australia 2023). This paper endeavors to introduce
a methodology for discerning and modelling the intricate production behaviors of CSG wells. Notably,
CSG production manifests a level of stochastic behavior, as evidenced by the dynamic fluctuations. The
underlying drivers of these dynamics are multifaceted, encompassing phenomena like slugging, operational
practices, and the occasional surface and artificial lift equipment anomalies (Khan and Islam 2007,
Nobakht and Mattar 2009). Understanding and characterizing these production dynamics holds significant
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implications for the prediction of well availability, identification of potential failures, and informed decision-
making regarding interventions.
In the realm of CSG production forecasting, prevalent techniques rely on tools like decline curves and
reservoir models. This yields production profiles that often exhibit a smooth, continuous trajectory (Poston
et al. 2019). However, these approaches tend to overlook the inherent stochastic component that pervades
the CSG production process (Nobakht and Mattar 2009). While an ideal solution would encompass a
holistic model capturing all relevant physical processes, this is often difficult due to the complexities of
data requirements, model intricacy, and computational time constraints. In response to these challenges, a

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novel approach emerges—a signal processing methodology harnessing the power of the Continuous Wavelet
Transform (CWT) to scrutinize CSG production variations (Torrence and Compo 1998). This endeavor
aims to characterize operational and reservoir events concealed within the data, revealing their frequencies,
durations, and magnitudes. Furthermore, this approach seeks to encapsulate the essence of production
variability as a stochastic process, applying statistical techniques to model these variations and enhance the
fidelity of forecasts.
The core objectives of this study are to resolve the following key questions:

• How can gas rate production events be effectively identified and categorized?

• What are the fundamental attributes—frequencies, durations, and magnitudes—of these gas rate
production events?
• How can the statistics of these events be incorporated into forecasting modelling?

The paper is structured to explore the application of the CWT in quantifying CSG production variation.
The subsequent section delves into the theory and definitions, elaborating on the CWT and classification
of events. The methodology section details the steps involved in applying the CWT to production data,
including data preparation, preprocessing, and event detection. Additionally, the section is divided into 3
segments, examining impulse and step events, and the application of impulse event statistics to forecasting.
In the Results section, the methodologies’ performance is assessed by evaluating forecasting accuracy.

Background
This section covers the previous approaches to resolving the CSG production variation problem. Followed
by, defining key characterizations of step and impulse events and elaborate on the application of the CWT.
There has been extensive work done in enhancing the effectiveness of traditional tools such as decline
curves; these technics aim to minimize the effect of variation rather than incorporate the variation (Poston
et al. 2019, Ilk et al. 2010). Although some efforts have been made to include variation in type curves
and reservoir models (Dennis 2017), limited technics are available to extract variation statistics critical to
effectively model the variations.
The introduced methodology leverages the CWT as a signal processing approach to analyze CSG
production variations, revealing operational and reservoir events' frequencies, durations, and magnitudes.
By incorporating statistical techniques, this approach aims to enhance the fidelity of production forecasts,
leading to more accurate budgeting, operational planning, and development decisions. The research
addresses the need for a more nuanced and realistic representation of CSG production behavior, reducing
the gap between deterministic models and the stochastic nature of operational events. This gap is crucial
to the understanding of CSG production, offering insights into past operations and enabling more robust
production forecasting.
In the preliminary investigation, various traditional signal processing methods were explored to decipher
the production dynamics. Techniques such as Autocorrelation, Cross-Correlation, and the Fourier Transform
were examined to understand the underlying patterns within the CSG production data (Hussain, Sadik,
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and O'shea 2011). However, these methods proved to be insufficient in capturing the complexities of the
production variations. It was evident that the stochastic and localized nature of the events required a more
refined approach. Subsequently, the study turned to the CWT, a technique that has shown promise in similar
fields for analyzing time-frequency events.

Event Definitions
The initial step toward effectively quantifying and categorization CSG production variations event hinges
on precisely defining events. Two prominent forms of CSG production variations—namely, impulse and

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step events—have been identified as critical variations. These are defined as follows:
Impulse events can be characterized as abrupt drops swiftly succeeded by a sharp rebound that creates a
distinctive shape reminiscent of steep bell curve with a short response.
Step events involve a relatively rapid transition from one system response to another, characterized by
an abrupt shift in behavior.
Both forms of events are typically caused by well anomalies or operational actions. Impulse events are
predominantly caused by actions such as liquid loading, slugging, and workovers (Khan and Islam 2007,
Nobakht and Mattar 2009). However, step events are mostly the result of well-bore blockages or intervention
such as well stimulation (Baker, Yarranton, and Jensen 2015). With a clear understanding of the different
events, the next major component critical to the methodology is the CWT.

Continuous Wavelet Transform

The CWT characterizes the variations embedded within the production data (Torrence and Compo 1998).
Fundamentally, through a process of convolution, a small, localized waveform (wavelet) is slid along an
input signal, producing coefficients that reveal the likeness between the signal and the wavelet at diverse
scales and positions. This convolution procedure is central to the CWT, wherein the wavelet's size is
systematically altered by a factor, and its position is adjusted by an offset. The following expression presents
this process mathematically:

Where a is the scale, b is the position, Ψ is the wavelet function, and x is the input signal. When practically
implementing the CWT, signals are discrete and computational resources are finite, therefore approximating
the transformation by discretizing scale and translation parameters is necessary. This yields a discrete array
of scales and translations. Utilizing these, CWT coefficients are determined using the following expression:

Where am is the scale array, bn is the position array, Ψ is the wavelet function, and x[k] is the discrete
input signal.
An example of CWT is shown in Fig 2. The CWT coefficients are organized in a two-dimensional
array that represents the time-frequency domain. This array is structured to capture variations in the
data across different scales or durations and their corresponding frequencies. The array's horizontal axis
represents time, progressing from left to right, while the vertical axis signifies frequency, increasing from
bottom to top. The coefficients' values are depicted as colors or shades in the array, with deeper hues
indicating higher coefficients. The arrangement from negative to positive frequencies reflects the likelihood
of occurrences, where negative values denote low-frequency components and positive values signify high-
frequency components. This organization facilitates the identification of patterns, shifts, and events within
the dataset by providing a visual representation that aligns with the signal's underlying dynamics.
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Critically, when applying the CWT an appropriate wavelet function needs to be selected. Different
wavelet families proffer distinct characteristics, with each one achieving a unique balance between time and
frequency localization. In this paper the Ricker wavelet is selected for its well-localized time and frequency
properties (Guo et al. 2022). While it might not align perfectly with the frequency content of the signal,
it excels at capturing transient events due to its symmetric shape, this trade-off is essential to recognize.
This symmetrical structure results in high performance when identifying transient behaviors, making it
particularly useful for detecting abrupt changes or singular events within a signal. The Ricker wavelet can
be expressed as:

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Where a is the scale, b is the position, Ψ is the wavelet function, and x is a time signal. This formula can
be used to recreate the exact wavelet that produced critical coefficients (The SciPy Community 2023).

Methodology
This methodology comprises a series of steps driven by the CWT to unveil and comprehend significant
variations or events in the dataset (Torrence and Compo 1998, Taspinar 2018). It begins with Data
Preparation, emphasizing data quality, followed by Preprocessing, where variations are isolated through
denoising using the Lowess technique.
The approach then splits into two analyses: Impulse Events and Step Events. Impulse Events
involve CWT, peak coefficient identification, event duration extraction, frequency calculation, magnitude
measurement, and event removal. Step Events, focusing on abrupt transitions, encompass CWT application,
scale selection, coefficient identification, gradient calculation, duration extraction, frequency quantification,
and magnitude measurement.
The methodology also advances into Forecasting, where impulse events are created using recalibrated
Ricker wavelets. Applying these wavelets to the forecast involves a Poisson distribution that captures event
frequency for accurate representation.

Data Preparation
The quality of data forms the bedrock for effective analysis and forecast modelling (Walker 2020). Accurate,
complete, consistent, relevant, and reliable data is pivotal for informed decisions and precise results. Before
utilization, data must undergo cleaning, transformation, and organization to adhere to stringent criteria:
accuracy (free from errors and biases), completeness (containing all necessary information), consistency
(adhering to established standards), relevance (pertinent to the problem), and reliability (verified correctness
and quality).
Data cleaning seeks to differentiate genuine operational variations from spurious data. This involves an
automated identification of errors, treatment of missing values, and detection of outliers. Manual quality
checks complement automated techniques such as comparing CSG production and bottom hole pressure.
While automation may slightly impact accuracy, its suitability for extensive datasets remains pragmatic.
The automated procedure consists of two phases: elimination of incomplete values and the exclusion of
extreme outliers. It's important to note that this step compromises timeseries completeness, representing a
notable limitation. However, by utilizing relevant data, we improve the quality of the subsequent analysis.

Preprocessing
Critically, to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the subsequent CWT, the initial preprocessing step of
variation isolation is required. This is a procedure to separate the underlying system response from the CSG
SPE-217318-MS 5

production variations. This step is not critical, however, in most cases drastically improves the robustness
of the CWT. To achieve the variation isolation, the data undergoes denoising using the Lowess (locally
weighted scatterplot smoothing) technique (Derkacheva et al. 2020). Lowess is a powerful non-parametric
regression method specifically designed to mitigate the influence of variations and outliers within datasets.
It operates by fitting polynomial functions to localized subsets of the data rather than processing the entire
dataset. This localized approach employs a weighted moving average, where each data point's contribution
is determined by its proximity to the center of the subset.
The crucial parameter known as the "fraction of points" governs the width of these subsets, playing

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a pivotal role in controlling the extent of smoothing applied to the data. The resulting smoothed curve
accurately captures the underlying signal while effectively diminishing the impact of variations and outliers.
Lowess is particularly adept at handling noisy datasets, making it an appropriate choice for the nuanced
variations often present in CSG production data. However, the correct calibration of the "fraction of points"
parameter is essential to prevent overfitting, where the smoothed signal replicates the data rather than
revealing genuine system behavior. Thus, careful adjustment of this parameter ensures that the denoising
process enhances the underlying patterns without distorting the intrinsic characteristics of the system.
After Appling Lowess to the production data, a smoothed system response is obtained. Subtracting the
smoothed data from the original data effectively isolates the variations, resulting in a variation data centered
around zero. The three resulting data sets can be observed in figure 1. This preprocessing step not only
refines the dataset but also enables subsequent analyses.

Figure. 1—Original CSG production vs smoothed CSG production data vs isolated CSG production variations.

Impulse Events
After preprocessing, the methodology for detecting impulse events in the production data utilizes the CWT
to systematically uncover significant events. The steps within this methodology are outlined as follows:
1. Apply Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT).
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2. Select a scale or duration for analysis.

3. Identify maximum coefficients exceeding a threshold.
4. Extract event duration from coefficient sign changes.
5. Calculate event frequency based on occurrence count.
6. Measure event magnitude using the absolute value of max coefficient.
7. Remove events by slicing data between coefficient sign changes.
8. Repeat process iteratively for remaining scales or durations.

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The process begins by applying the CWT to the data, with each analysis focusing on a chosen scale or
duration (Taspinar 2018). This scale serves as the basis for analyzing the data, determining the temporal
window within which events will be assessed and essentially determining the resolution at which the wavelet
is matched against the data. Critically, the initial scale is the largest with subsequent scales reducing in size.
Applying the CWT to the production data results in coefficients, which are examined to identify peak values
that surpass a predefined threshold. This process is implemented using a local maxima algorithm. These
peak coefficients serve to emphasize significant variations or events present in the dataset. The utilization
of a threshold operates as a filter, directing the method's attention towards deviations that hold substantial
importance. Figure 2 illustrates the detection of impulse events across a range of scales, varying from short
to extended duration events.

Figure. 2—Impulse event detection for varying scales, not using a threshold to only identify significant
events. Black circles show the gas rate. The CWT coefficients are depicted through the colormap.

Upon identifying these peak coefficients, the next step involves extracting the duration of the events.
This is achieved by determining the points in the coefficient series where the values transition from positive
to negative or vice versa. The time interval between these transition points provides an accurate measure of
the event's duration, allowing for a precise temporal understanding of the variations.
SPE-217318-MS 7

To quantify the frequency of these events, the number of occurrences of the identified duration is tallied.
This frequency information provides insights into how often these events manifest within the dataset,
helping to grasp their periodicity and recurring patterns.
The magnitude of the events is gauged by evaluating the absolute value of the highest coefficient point
within each event. This magnitude value signifies the amplitude of the variation or event, indicating the
extent of the departure from the normal dataset. Moreover, this magnitude can be recorded as a percentage,
measuring the percentage drop or rise from baseline. This percentage method is critical for recreating
wavelets for forecasting.

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A crucial part of this method involves removing the identified events from the data. This is achieved
by slicing the dataset between the transition points where the coefficients switch from positive to negative
or vice versa. By removing the event-specific portion of the data, subsequent analyses can focus on the
remaining variations and events, allowing for a more refined and precise exploration of the dataset.
The process is repeated iteratively, with each cycle of analysis concentrating on the remaining variations
in the data after removing the previously identified events. This approach offers a systematic way to
uncover, characterize, and quantify significant events within production data, facilitating a comprehensive
understanding of the temporal dynamics governing the production processes.

Step Events
Again, after preprocessing the methodology for uncovering and comprehending step events within the
dataset is through a structured series of defined steps. The sequential stages of this methodology are:
1. Apply Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT).
2. Select a scale or duration for analysis.
3. Identify coefficients exceeding a threshold.
4. Calculate gradients between successive maxima and minima points.
5. Extract event duration based on point time gaps.
6. Determine event frequency by tallying occurrences.
7. Quantify event magnitude through drop or rise between points.
The process commences by applying the CWT. Again, a pivotal decision is to select a scale or duration.
This decision profoundly influences the subsequent analysis, dictating the level of granularity at which
variations will be scrutinized. This granularity is especially pertinent when identifying step events – those
instances marked by an abrupt and rapid transition from one system response to another.
Once the scale is determined, the methodology advances by setting a threshold against which maximum
coefficients are assessed. These coefficients, surpassing the established threshold, identify moments of
crucial significance. These are instances where the wavelet and the signal coalesce to mark significant
shifts in the system's behavior. However, step events are more elaborate than mere deviations. Therefore,
the calculation of gradients between consecutive maxima and minima points is required. The threshold for
gradients serves as another filter, allowing the methodology to pinpoint instances where the drop or rise
between points is particularly pronounced. This can be indicative of a step event – a sharp transition from
one response to another. The calculation of gradients enriches the understanding of the abrupt nature of
these events, encapsulating their essence within a quantitative metric.
After identification it is critical to quantify these events. The temporal span of each event is determined
by evaluating the time gap between successive maxima points. Frequency is measured through the
straightforward tallying of occurrences of events. This value reveals the prevalence and regularity of step
events within the dataset. Finally, event magnitude is quantified by gauging the difference in value between
consecutive points. This quantification captures the extent of the rapid shift characteristic of step events.
8 SPE-217318-MS

Incorporating scales, thresholds, gradients, durations, frequencies, and magnitudes, this methodology
provides a holistic toolkit for detecting, characterizing, and interpreting step events. By capitalizing on the
CWT's capabilities and integrating a gradient metric, this approach identifies abrupt transitions, enriching
the comprehension of the underlying dynamics in the dataset.

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Figure. 3—Step event detection on well with intervention, displaying negative (black-orange) and positive (orange-black)
step events. The thick black line shows the gas rate. The CWT coefficients are depicted through the underlying colormap.

Forecasting
The forecasting methodology introduces a targeted approach focused on generating impulse events. By
employing specific statistical attributes derived from the analysis of impulse events, a distinctive technique
is developed to recreate the Ricker wavelet at varying durations and magnitudes. This allows for the precise
calibration of the wavelet to represent the characteristics of impulse-type variations in the dataset.
Subsequently, the reconfigured Ricker wavelet is applied to the forecast. This application involves
leveraging a Poisson distribution to incorporate the frequency of occurrence of these impulse events (Fox
and Bolton 2002). The Poisson distribution, a widely used probability distribution, is particularly suitable
for modelling rare and infrequent events that occur independently in a fixed interval. It's characterized by a
single parameter, λ (lambda), which represents the average number of occurrences within the given interval.

Where e is the Euler's constant, λ is the frequency of identified impulse events, and x is a discrete time
signal. The more frequently these impulse events occur, the higher the value of λ will be, reflecting a higher
expected occurrence rate. The application of the Poisson distribution ensures that the generated impulse
events align with their observed occurrence patterns, effectively capturing the sporadic and distinct nature
of these events.
SPE-217318-MS 9

Results
This section reveals the methodology's precision in comparing real well data variations to estimated
variations, indicating its potential for enhanced production forecasting. The approach taken to assess the
effectiveness of the methodology involves assessing the cumulative gas production of the isolated variations.
The isolated variations from real well data and forecasted variations applied to smoothed data of the same
well are compared. An example of the estimated variations compared to the actual production is shown
in Figure 4. This comparative evaluation aims to determine the methodology's ability to provide accurate
predictions that closely align with the actual production behavior. Additionally, as the estimation method

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is random the difference is the average of 10 iterations.

Figure. 4—Estimated vs actual gas production variations. Displaying how the

difference between estimated and original production variations were compared.

Firstly, individual tuning was carried out for 30 wells that had been in operation for over 5 years. To
optimally adjust the methodology's variables—namely, iterations, thresholds, and scales—a basic visual
technique is employed to gauge the methodology's efficacy. This involves iteratively modifying these
parameters while maintaining other aspects constant. The effectiveness of the methodology is assessed
through a straightforward observational process, involving the examination of data at each iteration to
identify the events that have been removed.
Notably, the results from the specific subset of 30 wells demonstrated a high level of accuracy between
the cumulative gas production from the real well variations vs the estimated variations. The disparity
between the two was minimal, at less than 0.1%. This indicates a remarkable degree of predictive precision,
highlighting the methodology's potential to offer highly accurate forecasts for established wells.
Broadening the assessment, the methodology was performed on a larger dataset comprised of production
data from 250 wells, operating for longer than 5 years. This involved the extraction of the average magnitude,
frequency, and duration of impulse events from these wells. Subsequently, the average attribute statistics
10 SPE-217318-MS

were used to generate estimated variations for each well. Again, comparing the difference in cumulative
gas production of the estimated and actual variations resulted in an average difference of 1%.
These results carry significant implications for the production forecasting. As forecasting methods
produce smooth estimations, the average disparity between the cumulative gas production for smoothed data
and the actual well data was approximately 5% of total gas. By reintroducing the gas production variation,
the methodology could significantly reduce this discrepancy. Figure 5 shows the results of the production
forecasting with the smooth decline curve combined with the noise generated using the average event
statistics obtained. The thin solid blue curve shows the exponential decline curves fitted to the declining

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part of the actual production data (blue circles). The resulting forecast is shown as orange circles and
demonstrates excellent similarity to the actual data.

Figure. 5—Forecast applied to exponential type curve vs original data.

Displaying the use of forecast on type curves or smooth forecasting.

Conclusions
In conclusion, this study presents a novel methodology employing the CWT to analyze variations within
CSG production. By identifying and characterizing impulse and step events, the approach quantifies and
replicates the dynamics of production behavior. This addresses the limitations of traditional tools, capturing
the stochastic components inherent in CSG production processes. The results present comprehension
of production behavior and offer practical implementations for enhancing forecasting. Furthermore, the
findings underscore the potency of the CWT technique in quantifying temporal variations within production
datasets. By identifying events and their attributes, such as frequencies, durations, and magnitudes, the
methodology provides a holistic perspective on production dynamics.
The study's success in harnessing CWT for quantifying variation in CSG production opens avenues for
further research. Refining the wavelet analysis techniques to suit specific reservoir types and integrating
machine learning methodologies could enhance accuracy and applicability. Ultimately, this research
SPE-217318-MS 11

underscores the potential of CWT in optimizing production strategies, advancing the understanding of
reservoir behavior, and contributing to informed decision-making in the dynamic energy landscape.

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