Santa Claus Rally

The Santa Claus rally refers to gains in the stock market that often take place at
the end of December. The pattern is one of a number of "calendar effects" that
occur, or at least are believed to occur, over the course of the year. It's not
fully clear whether it's purely psychological or there are some underlying
financial reasons for the year-end rally, but history has shown that stocks tend to
gain at the end of the year and into the first days of January. In this examination
of the Santa Claus rally, we'll discuss the origins of the rally, why it happens,
and the history behind it. Image source: The Motley Fool Understanding the Santa
Claus rally Generally, the Santa Claus rally refers to the stock market's history
of rising over the last five trading days of the year and the first two market days
of the new year. Yale Hirsch first documented the pattern in 1972, writing in
"Stock Trader's Almanac" that the S&P 500 had gained an average 1.5% during
that seven-day period from 1950 through 1971. The pattern has held true since 1950,
with the broad market index increasing an average of 1.3%. Additionally, the market
has gained during those days in 34 of the previous 45 years, or more than 75% of
the time. To Hirsch, the Santa Claus rally wasn't just a clever name for a frequent
occurrence but an indicator of the coming year for the stock market. In fact, that
was where he saw value in tracking the rally, saying, “If Santa Claus should fail
to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall,” a reference to the location of the New
York Stock Exchange. Hirsch monitored three similar indicators as gauges for the
next year's performance: the Santa Claus rally, the first five days of the market
in the new year, and the January barometer, or the market's performance in the
first month of the year. Of the three, the Santa Claus rally is the best known.
Causes of the Santa Claus rally There isn't any clear cause for the Santa Claus
rally, although there are number of possible reasons to explain stock market gains
over the seven-day trading period. They include: Trading volume tends to be low
since institutional investors take off the week after Christmas. The market can be
more volatile and give more influence to retail investors, who tend to be more
bullish. Investors buy stocks ahead of an anticipated rally in January, known as
the January effect, which may come from reinvesting money after tax loss harvesting
in December. Investors may already be reinvesting tax loss harvesting money at the
end of December. The week between Christmas and New Year's can offer a hopeful and
optimistic sense about the coming year. End-of-year bonuses and gifts during the
holidays give people money to invest in the stock market. Once the Santa Claus
rally is commonly known, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. If people believe
in it, they will invest accordingly. History of the Santa Claus rally In 2018, the
S&P 500 finished the month with a 6.6% gain after December 24, which were the
last four trading days of the month. Although the index fell on Jan. 3 -- the
second day of the new year -- December 24 proved to be the market bottom. Similarly
in 2008, during the stock market crash caused by the financial crisis, stocks
actually got a Santa Claus rally in the midst of a larger bear market rally. During
the seven-day period, the S&P 500 gained 7.5%, although it would crash again in
the first two months of 2009 before bottoming out on March 9. In both 2008 and
2018, the Santa Claus rallies successfully predicted bull markets for the coming
year. In 2009, the broad-market index gained 23%; in 2019, it rose 29%. However, a
Santa Claus rally isn't always an accurate predictor of gains the next year. In
2021, the S&P 500 gained 1.4% in the seven-day period, but the market peaked on
Jan. 3 and entered a bear market in June, falling more than 20% as the Federal
Reserve Board aggressively raised interest rates. Since 1994, stocks have risen 23
times during the Santa Claus rally period. The following year has been positive for
the S&P 500 18 times. Of the six times that stocks have fallen during the Santa
Claus rally period, the market has fallen in four of the following years. That
makes the Santa Claus rally a surprisingly accurate market predictor. Related stock
market topics The bottom line Like other calendar effects, including the January
effect and phrases such as, "Sell in May and go away," there is strong evidence
that the Santa Claus rally is real and can predict the market's outcome. Stocks
usually rise over the last five days at the end of the year and the first two days
of the following year. Based on the results since 1994, the behavior of stocks
during the Santa Claus rally is also usually an accurate predictor of the direction
of the stock market for the following year. However, it's a mistake to confuse
correlation for causality here. Just because the Santa Claus rally does usually
happen, and it often predicts the market the following year, that doesn't mean it
will continue to do so. Market sentiment can change. If investors anticipate it,
they are likely to behave differently, and market participants may adjust according
to the expectation of a Santa Claus rally. Still, investors should be aware of how
the market moves at different times of the year. Although there's no clear
expectation for the Santa Claus rally, history has shown that stocks often
outperform during the end-of-the-year period. After Hirsch wrote about the pattern,
it seemed to become part of the investing lexicon by the early 2000s when a number
of references were made to the term in the financial media. At times, the Santa
Claus rally has proven strikingly prescient. For example, in 2018, the S&P 500
fell through much of the fourth quarter as Treasury yields rose. However, it hit
bottom on December 24 and then surged. Santa Claus rally FAQs What days are the
Santa Claus rally? angle-down angle-up According to Yale Hirsch, who first noticed
the trend of stocks gaining at the end of the year, the Santa Claus rally refers to
stocks moving higher on the last five trading days of one year and the first two
trading sessions of the next year. However, market commentators will sometimes use
the phrase to describe any rally that takes place around the end of December. How
long does the Santa Claus stock rally last? angle-down angle-up By definition, the
Santa Claus rally refers to gains in the market that typically happen in the last
five days in one year and the first two days of the next. However, a Santa Claus
rally could last longer. The term is sometimes used to refer to any rally that
takes place around the end of the year. Is the Santa Claus rally real? angle-down
angle-up Yes, the Santa Claus rally is real. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has gained
an average of 1.3% during the seven-day period in which the rally takes place, and
it's gained in 34 of the past 45 years. However, there is no clear cause for the
Santa Claus rally, and there's no guarantee that it will continue. It's impossible
to predict its future performance. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Operation Santa Claus will provide holiday dinners to local families for 40th year

Operation Santa Claus is back for its 40th year — with the goal of feeding 2,500
families in eight counties. The campaign is an annual cooperative effort by Trib
Total Media, Shop ’n Save and the Salvation Army to provide holiday dinners to
local families. This year, the campaign had to reduce the number of families it
will serve by about half. “We’re afraid that if the donations continue to decline,
we won’t be able to pay for the groceries,” said Lindsay Bock, Operation Santa
Claus chairperson and Trib Total Media director of marketing. “It was a very
difficult decision to make.” The decision is best for the long-term sustainability
of the program, she said. Last year was “a difficult year,” according to Bock, as
expenses increased and donations decreased. “Inflation is inflation, whether you
are a nonprofit or a for-profit,” Bock said. Operation Santa Claus buys the
groceries from Shop ’n Save at cost instead of at retail price, but wholesale
prices have gone up as well, Bock said. “Everyone’s budget is tight, but the people
that we’re serving — they are the neediest of the needy,” Bock said. “So we’re
doing our very best to provide them with a little relief over the holidays.” This
year’s fundraising goal is $50,000, which go toward purchasing the meal items,
including a ham, canned fruits, vegetables, boxed potatoes, pasta, snack crackers,
flavored gelatin and more. Bill Lipsky, vice president of merchandising for Shop ’n
Save, said the grocery chain will be shipping the boxes of food to families who put
in requests. “We want to try to feed as many families as we can. You always want to
feed more,” Lipsky said. Tom Charley, owner of the three Charley Family Shop ’n
Save stores in Murrysville and Greensburg, said his father started working with the
Trib when Operation Santa Claus began. He said the campaign is all volunteer work.
He agreed that fundraising has been challenging, which is “disappointing.” Reducing
the amount of meals this year was “a necessary step” to ensure the viability of the
campaign for years to come, he said. Meanwhile, the Salvation Army is prepared to
cover the meals this year for families unable to be served by Operation Santa
Claus, according to Maj. Laurie Greenfield, the core commanding officer at the
Salvation Army in Greensburg. “We don’t want to turn anybody away,” Greenfield
said. “We want to be able to serve everyone that comes to us.” She said she is
finding this year’s need to be greater than last year’s — “and it’s only October.”
“We normally see an incremental increase, but we have more than double our requests
from last year,” Greenfield said. She said she believes it’s because of cuts in
assistance programs and pandemic funds. “Donations were down last year and
throughout the year as well, so therefore, we need a little more assistance this
year in order to meet the greater need,” Greenfield said. Though Bock said
Operation Santa Claus can’t accept actual food donations, the Salvation Army can.
She said it’s “wonderful” that the Salvation Army is going to try and feed the
families that Operation Santa Claus will be unable to help this year. Greenfield
said the Operation Santa Claus partnership is “a huge blessing.” “It means the
difference between having Christmas or not having Christmas for a lot of our
families — and having a nice warm family meal together,” Greenfield said. The
campaign runs from Nov. 1 until the end of December, but Bock said financial
donations “absolutely” will be accepted any time, as some bills don’t come due
until later. Donations can be made in multiple ways: through coupons in Trib Total
Media’s daily, weekly or monthly newspapers, by purchasing $1 or $5 donation cards
at participating Shop ’n Save stores until Dec. 17 or by visiting osc.triblive.com
to donate online or print a donation coupon and send via mail. Additionally,
families can order a “Letter from Santa” at the same site through Nov. 30, which
will be personalized for each child. Operation Santa Claus also is in need of new
and gently used books, which can be donated by calling 412-320-7872 or emailing
marketing@triblive.com. Megan Swift is a Tribune-Review staff writer. You can
contact Megan at 724-850-1204, mswift@triblive.com or via Twitter .

Santa Claus returning to Walden Galleria starting November 17

CHEEKTOWAGA, N.Y. (WKBW) — "Here comes Santa Claus," Walden Galleria announced
Santa Claus will return to the shopping center starting November 17 at 11 a.m.
Santa will be located at the temporary fireside lounge on the lower level near the
Apple Store through December 24. Walden Galleria said reservations are strongly
encouraged and walk-up visits will be available as space allows throughout the day.
You can make reservations online here. The following special events will be held:
Pet Photo Nights: Mondays & Tuesdays (Nov. 20th – Dec. 12th) from 5:00 p.m. –
7:00 p.m. — Bring your furry or not so furry friend(s) to take a picture with
Santa! All pets must be on a leash. Santa Cares: Sunday, December 3rd from 10:30
a.m. – 11:30 a.m. — Santa Cares is an event held exclusively for children with
sensory issues. Held in partnership with Autism Speaks, Santa Cares takes place
during off hours with low lighting and no music. Autism Speaks is dedicated to
promoting solutions for the needs of individuals with sensory issues and their
families. Walden Galleria previously announced its extended hours for the holiday
shopping season, which you can find here. You can find more information on visits
with Santa here.