Derivation of Basic Reliability

Function/Expression
Jayanta Bhattacharya
Importance of Reliability
1. Reliability as a term and concept has been used from
advertising/marketing to the engineering and making of critical
equipment like spacecrafts , aircrafts and high speed trains.
2. People in general have a notion/understanding, either qualitative or
quantitative, of the term “reliability”.
3. A shop owner impresses a customer by saying that this product is
more reliable than the other, many times not knowing what he or
she actually means by that and what the customer actually
understands.
4. In a quantitative sense, if a shop owner says that the customers of
this vehicle comes to the repair shop once in 10 years as against
another vehicle the customer of which comes once in 2 years.
Importance of reliability
• In a survey in the US, when asked about the most important product
attributes, this was the scoring:
Attribute Average Score
Standard Performance 9.5
Lasts a long time 9.0
Service convenience 8.9
Easily Repaired 8.8
Warranty 8.4
Easy to use 8.3
Appearance 7.7
Brand name 6.3
Packaging 5.8
Latest model 5.4
Definition of the term “Reliability”
Reliability is defined to be the probability that a component or a
system will perform a required function at a certain capacity for a
given period of time when used under stated operating conditions (
similar conditions of dust,heat,pH,temperature,humidity,and
vibration ).
Reliability is the probability of a device performing its purpose
adequately for the period of time intended under the (acceptable)
operating conditions encountered .
( Note: though in most of the literature reliability is expressed in terms
of probability there are other expressions of reliability like failure rate (
higher less reliable, and vice versa), repair rate ( higher the repair rate
more is the reliability))
Reliability Assessment
• Basic understanding :
• 1. Probability of failure increases with time ( 0 to 1).
• 2. Probability of success reduces time ( 1 to 0).
• 3. At any time duration failure rate can change.
• 4. When either probability or failure rate changes, we always consider
that the environmental conditions remain the same.
• 5. When we consider two/multiple units/components , or
subsystems/equipment or two same or similar systems in terms of
reliability both of them would be considered to have entered the test
or work at the same condition of age, development and under
same/similar working condition.
Reliability Estimation

•1.Parametric Estimation.
•2.Non-parametric Estimation
Non-parametric estimation of reliability
• In a mine , the power unit of a shovel shows the following time to
failure data ( from start to failure, time to failure=Duration ( (start
time to work finish time)1 + (start time to work finish time)2…….
(start time to work finish time)30 + ((start time to failure time ))
• Then the shovel undergoes the repair, the failed part is replaced or
repaired and then the shovel starts again as new.
• The sample data looks like this : ( in 100 hours): 5,4,10,15, 17,3, 7,
20,12, 24.
• This analysis is also called non-parametric data or discrete analysis.
 The sample data looks like this : ( in 100 hours): 5,4,10,15,
17,3, 7, 20,12, 24.
Class ( hrs) No of Number of Reliability Failure density Function
failures surviving (number
units at the surviving
end of time divided the
number of
samples)
0< <= 5 3 7 7/10 3/10.5
5< <= 10 2 5 5/10 2/10.5

10< <= 15 2 3 3/10 2/10.5

15< <= 20 2 1 1/10 2/10.5

20< <= 25 1 0 0/10 1/10.5

Cumulative Failure Instantaneous Failure Rate Comments
Distribution Function Function ( the number
failing / the number
currently surviving
3/10 3/10.5 This analysis can help us making decisions. For
example, we consider that it is not advisable to run a
system beyond say, 2000 hours when the reliability is
0.1. In such cases, we will stop the equipment and
shall either do
5/10 2/7.5 Preventive maintenance by oiling and greasing and
checking the circuits ( a mine equipment )

7/10 2/5.5 Or by corrective maintenance of replacing the parts

or the total power unit ( hospital critical operation
ward)
9/10 2/3.5
10/10 1/2. 5
• So instatntaneous hazard rate can be written as ,

• Pr (t<T<t +del t)= R(t)-R(t+del t)

• The conditional probability of a failure in the time interval from t to
t+del t, given that the unit has survived to/till time t is,
Surviving till warranty period increases design
life

The value of reliability 0.90 is

considered here as the
reliability at design life
Considering a constant hazard
rate,lambda
Constant Failure Rate Model (CFR)
Exponential models alos
have another property that
is called memorylessness. It
is pointless to have warranty
period in the contstant
hazard rate period.
Constant failure rate model
Non-linear Hazard Rate
Please look into standard
gamma function table.
System Reliability: When number of components , either physically connected, or in standby
mode or not physically connected- work together to achieve a certain objective and their
individual contribution leads to system success or, lack of it , to failure.

Series parallel system

Series System Parallel system
= R1.R2.R3…Rn
Different Complex System Reliability Models