Reliability and Life

An Introduction to Reliability Terminology,

Modeling, Prediction, and MTBF

Summary
This article provides an introduction to reliability engineering
terminology and concepts, such as reliability functions, failure
rates, typical failure patterns, Weibull and exponential failure
distributions, and Mean-Time-Between-Failure (MTBF). Life
concepts of rolling element bearings are explained. Examples
and references for further reading are also provided.

GS02005
Gerard Schram and René Klerx
SKF Engineering & Research Center
14 pages
April 2003

SKF Reliability Systems

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Introduction
High reliability and maintainability levels are
crucial for asset availability, which is the
ultimate goal of maintenance practices. Often,
the term reliability is (miss)used in qualitative
sense without a sound understanding of failure
rate patterns and real data. This article
provides an introduction to this field without
creating a mathematical burden. Rudimentary
terms and concepts are explained, followed
with examples. For detailed treatment of the
subject, refer to the various references.
Definitions
This article begins by defining common
terminology.
Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF): A
basic measure of reliability for repairable
items. Mean time between failures is
calculated from the total accumulated
operating time divided by the number of
failures during the same period.
Total Accumulated Operating Time
MTBF =
Number of Failures
Mean Time Between Critical Failure
(MTBCF): A measure of system reliability,
which includes the effects of any fault
tolerance that exist. The average time between
failures that cause a loss of a system function
defined as “critical” by the customer.
Mean Time to Failure (MTTF): A basic
measure of reliability for non-repairable items.
Mean time to failure is calculated from the
total elapsed time or operating time divided by
the total number of failures (in case of more
than one item).
Total Elapsed Time
MTTF =
Number Of Failures
While MTBF excludes time that the
equipment is not available or in use, MTTF
© 2004 SKF Reliability Systems All Rights Reserved
Reliability and Life
includes the full period of time regardless of
actual operation time. It is common for these
two terms to be confused or misunderstood.
Failure rates reported or collected from
maintenance management systems tend to be
in terms of MTTF.
Reliability: The probability that equipment,
machinery or systems will perform their
required functions satisfactorily under specific
conditions within a certain time period. This
could be measured by mean time between
failure (MTBF) - the duration or probability of
failure-free performance under stated
conditions. The term reliability may also be
used to denote the probability of success or
success ratio.
Often a distinction is made between inherent
and operational reliability. Inherent reliability
relates to a product reliability from design
point-of-view. Operational reliability stands
for the product being operational in the field.
In the context of maintenance, we generally
speak in terms of operational reliability.
Failure rate: The total number of failures
within an item population, divided by the total
time expended by that population during a
particular measurement interval under stated
conditions. Other formats include the number
of failures per year, and in some cases, it is
common to express failure rate as the number
of failures per hour, or the number of failures
of an item per unit time.
Pump example (1): Assume 2 pumps failed
out of a population of 16 pumps during three
months. The failure rate is (2/16) / (0.25 year)
= 0.5/year.
Hazard rate: Hazard rate is the instantaneous
speed of failure - being the instantaneous
failure rate. Hazard rate is the ratio of failures
that occur in an interval to the size of the
population at the start of the interval, divided
by the length of time. Of course, in case of
2
 Reliability and Life

constant failure rate, the hazard rate is properties. These failures are due to old
constant. age.

Typical Failure Rate Curves • Bathtub: infant mortality, constant hazard

When a failure rate is plotted against a
arbitrary continuous time scale, the resulting
chart can exhibit different patterns (Figure 1).
The percentages refer to the typical spread of
equipment that show this failure rate curves.
Failure rate patterns are:
rate, and distinct wear out.
• Constant: constant (random) hazard rate
with little or no changes over life. No
memory of previous stress history (i.e. an
old running product may be as good as a
new one). Typically a curve that fits for
electronic components.

• Wear out: constant hazard rate with a • Infant mortality: high failure rates that
distinct wear out region. Failure rate show up early in usage followed by a
increases with operating time. Process constant hazard rate.
indicates a deterioration of material

Figure 1. Different Failure Rate Patterns. The Percentages Refer to the Typical Spread of Equipment that Show
These Curves.

Infant mortality is clearly the primary failure Infant - Inadequate stresses during
pattern. Scheduled maintenance activities do mortality running-in / burn-in (e.g. due to
little or nothing to defend against the portion bad installation, procedures)
of infant mortality failures. Assets where - Quality problems components
failures are a significant problem should be - Rework / refurbishment
examined using root cause failure analysis to problems
identify the root causes and prevent them from
occurring again. Random - Maintenance / human errors
- Inherent failures, not induced
In order to give some idea of possible failure - Mixtures of failure modes
reasons, consider the table below.

© 2004 SKF Reliability Systems All Rights Reserved 3

 Reliability and Life

Wear out - low cycle fatigue In other words, the probability of a failure
- constant corrosion / erosion occurring can be expressed as a number in the
failure modes range 0 to 1, where zero means that it will not
- Scheduled replacement may be occur, and 1 means that it will occur.
cost effective
By way of an example consider a quantity of
100 components that all fail within a year of
purchase, as shown at table 1 below.
Of the bearings that fail in service, past SKF
research shows that approximately 16% fail Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
due to faulty mounting, 36% due to
Failures 4 10 15 17 15 13 10 8 6 2 0 0
inadequate lubrication, 14% due to ingress of
contamination, and 34% from fatigue. Fatigue Table 1Example - component failures
failure often occurs because of abuse in
service (e.g. result of overloading). Therefore, The data shown above can be represented
in practice, bearings fail prematurely graphically in the form of a Relative
according to a combination of infant and Frequency Histogram, as at figure 1 below:
random failure patterns. In principle, pure
fatigue or wear under normal conditions
follow a wear out curve.

Reliability Modeling
Failure Distributions, Failure and
Survival Probabilities
First we introduce failure distribution f(t): the
probability density function of failure
distributed over time.

The probability of failure F(t) is then derived,

which is the cumulative failure distribution: Figure 2Relative Frequency Histogram

t
F (t ) = ∫
o
f (t )dt
Notice that the probability of failure starts
from zero and converges to one over time.
The reliability (or survival) function R(t),
which means the probability of survival is the
complement of the failure function:
R (t ) = 1 − F (t )
Being the complement of failure probability,
the reliability starts from one and converges to
zero over time.
The total number of failures occurring in the
first six months is 74. Dividing this number by
the total population (in this case 100) gives
0.74, a number that represents the cumulative
probability of failure F(t) occurring within the
first half year.
By transforming the number of failures by
month into these probabilities the data shown
above can be represented in a different form
known as the probability density function F(t).
This can be plotted as represented at figure 2
below, such that the area under the curve
between time 0 and any time t represents the
cumulative probability of failure.

© 2004 SKF Reliability Systems All Rights Reserved 4


Figure 3 Probability Density Function
In figure 2, the area F(t) represents the
probability of failure at or before time t. The
area R(t) represents the probability that an
item will not fail by time t.
For early failure, low percentiles such as 1%
or 10% points are often used, which
correspond to R(t)=0.99 and R(t)=0.90. Often,
these points are then called L1 and L10 life,
respectively. The Mean Time Between Failure
(MTBF) stands for the average life. This
means that half of the items failed. An easy
mistake is to assume that this corresponds to a
failure probability of 0.5; however, as failure
distributions vary, there is not one relation to a
specific failure probability.
"Life" Corresponds to:
t= L0 R(t) = 1.0
t= L1 R(t) = 0.99
t= L5 R(t) = 0.95
t= L10 R(t) = 0.90
In case of multiple system components,
multiplying individual components
reliabilities can approximate reliability:
© 2004 SKF Reliability Systems All Rights Reserved
Reliability and Life
n
[R(t )]system = ∏ R j (t )
j =1
This holds for components “in series,”
meaning that if one fails, the system fails.
Calculations are different for components “in
parallel,” as reliability increases with the
number of parallel components. This is also
known as parallel redundancy, and is applied
to increase reliability (i.e., triple redundant
systems in aircraft) [11]. The reader is referred
to [xx] for more information about system
reliability modeling.
Instantaneous Failure Rate and MTBF
The hazard function h(t) is the instantaneous
failure rate, or the probability of failure within
a small interval from t, when it is known to
survive up to time t. The hazard function can
be expressed as:
h(t ) = f (t ) / R (t )
This function is sometimes referred to as the
hazard function or failure intensity function.
The MTBF means the average time between
two failures of a product governed by a
specific failure distribution.
If the reliability or survival function is known,
MTBF is found to be equal to the average life:
∞
MTBF == ∫ R(t )dt
0
If the instantaneous failure rate h(t) is constant
over time, we can rewrite the equation as:
∞ ∞
MTBF = ∫ R(t )dt = ∫ f (t ) / h(t )dt = 1/ h(t )
0 0
In case of multiple system components, the
system hazard function can be approximated
by the sum of the individual components:
5
 Reliability and Life
n
[h(t )]system = ∑ h j (t ) λ 0.5
j =1
1

A rough estimate of MTBF, assuming

constant failure rate, is then achieved: λ .exp( λ .t )

exp( λ .t )
[MTBF ]system ≈ 1 /[h(t )]system 0.5
λ

This only holds for components in series. For

components in parallel, the calculations are
0
different. 0 5 10
t
Exponential Failure Distribution Figure 4. Example of Exponential Failure Distribution,
Reliability Function, and Hazard Rate for λ = 0.5 .
Consider the exponential distribution:
Pump example (2): Assume a constant failure
f (t ) = λ exp(−λt )
rate of 0.5/year. This means R(t) = exp(-0.5 t),
with t in years. The MTBF is simply 1/0.5 = 2
This distribution is applied in domains that years. Some values for R(t) are denoted in the
tend to exhibit a constant failure rate λ (for table below, and depicted in Figure 4.
example electrical components). To fail
exponentially means that the distribution of Years h(t) R(t)
failure times fits an exponential distribution.
The reliability function is then: 0.01 0.5/year 0.99
R (t ) = exp( −λt ) 0.05 0.5/year 0.98

with λ being the constant failure rate: 0.1 0.5/year 0.95

h(t ) = f (t ) / R(t ) = λ 0.2 0.5/year 0.90

This means that the chance of failure remains 1 0.5/year 0.60

constant, independent of component age. The
exponential function is often applied to model 2 (MTBF) 0.5/year 0.37
failure data of electronic equipment.

The MTBF (or MTTF if it concerns a non- Weibull Failure Distribution

repairable item) is then written as: The so-called Weibull distribution is
important, as it can be used to model many
MTBF = 1 / h(t ) = 1 / λ different reliability functions:
The MTBF corresponds to the 63.2nd β −1
β t −γ   (t − γ ) β 
percentile of the exponential failure f (t ) =   exp − 
distribution (F(t) = 0.632 at t=MTBF). Thus, θ θ   θ 
probability of failure is 0.632, and probability
of survival is R(t)=0.368. with:

© 2004 SKF Reliability Systems All Rights Reserved 6

 Reliability and Life

• β is the shape parameter, which makes
the shape of the distribution, when the
Weibull function reduces to the
exponential distribution function. When
β ≈ 3.4 , the distribution comes close to a
normal distribution.
1< β < 4 Implies early wear out; the failure
rate is increasing over time.
β >4 Implies old age and rapid wear
out; the failure rate is increasing
quickly.

• θ is a scale parameter, which represents a

The MTBF can be derived as:
value that occurs at the 63.2 percentile of
the distribution and is called the ∞ ∞
(t − γ ) β
characteristic life. MTBF = ∫ R(t )dt = ∫ exp(− )dt
0 0 θ
• γ is the location parameter, which
represents a failure free period. If not This integral can not be derived in a generic
applicable, γ = 0 , and the Weibull way, only solutions exist for specific values:
distribution becomes two parameter. For
example, for rolling element bearings, the  1
MTBF = γ + θ Γ1 + 
L0 period of no failure (R(t)=1.0) is set to  β
zero, as it should be neglected based on
the assumption of a random sample. with Γ (x) being the "gamma function":
Reliability functions based on Weibull failure ∞
distributions are then derived: Γ( x) = ∫ y x −1 exp(− y )dy
0

(t − γ ) β Various values for Γ (x) are shown in the

R(t ) = exp(− )
θ Table below. In various textbooks, extensive
tables can be found for quick calculation.
The hazard rate is written as:
x Γ (x) x Γ (x)
β −1
β t −γ 
h(t ) = f (t ) / R(t ) =   1.01 0.99433 2.05 1.02218
θ θ 
1.1 0.95135 2.1 1.04649
The failure rate depends strongly on the shape
parameter β . In short, we can summarize as in 1.2 0.91817 2.2 1.10180
the following table.
1.3 0.89747 2.3 1.16671
β <1 Implies infant mortality. If
1.4 0.88726 2.4 1.24217
product survives infant mortality,
its resistance to failure improves 1.5 0.88623 2.5 1.32934
with age.
1.6 0.89352 2.6 1.42962
β =1 Implies failures are random;
constant failure rate! An old part 1.7 0.90864 2.7 1.54469
is as good as a new part.
1.8 0.93138 2.8 1.67649

© 2004 SKF Reliability Systems All Rights Reserved 7

 Reliability and Life

1.9 0.96177 2.9 1.82736 Finally, assume a case with increasing hazard
rate, β = 1.2, γ = 0, θ = 1 , which
2.0 1.00 3.0 2.00
represents wear-out failure behavior. The
MTBF is calculated as 0.94 (Figure 7).

β 1.2 γ 0 θ 1
A few examples follow. First assume
β = 1, γ = 0, θ = 1 . This means the
2

Weibull failure distribution becomes β. t γ

β 1
.exp (t γ)
β
1.5
exponential with hazard rate = 1. Notice the θ θ θ

β
MTBF becomes 1. The functions are plotted exp
(t
θ
γ)
1

in Figure 5. β 1
β. t γ
θ θ 0.5

β 1 γ 0 θ 1

2 0
0 2 4
t

β. t γ
β 1
.exp (t γ)
β
1.5
Figure 7. Example Weibull Distribution, Reliability
θ θ θ Function, and Hazard Function
exp
(t γ)
β
1
β = 1.2, γ = 0,θ = 1 .
θ

β 1
β. t γ
θ θ 0.5
For the sake of completeness, the Weibull
failure distribution is shown for
0
0 2 4
β = 3.4, γ = 0, θ = 1 . In this specific case,
t the Weibull distribution approximates a
Figure 5. Example Weibull Distribution, Reliability normal distribution. The MTBF is calculated
Function, and Hazard Function
as 0.90 (Figure 8).
for β = 1, γ = 0,θ = 1 .
β 3.4 γ 0 θ 1
Next, assume a case with decreasing hazard 2
rate, β = 0.8, γ = 0, θ = 1 , which
represents infant mortality failure behavior. In β. t γ
β 1
.exp (t γ)
β
1.5
θ θ θ
this case, the MTBF is calculated as 1.13. The β
functions are plotted in Figure 6. exp
(t
θ
γ)
1

β 1
β. t γ
β 0.8 γ 0 θ 1 θ θ 0.5

0
0 2 4
β 1 β
β. t γ .exp (t γ) 1.5 t
θ θ θ
Figure 8. Example Weibull Distribution, Reliability
exp
(t γ)
β
1
Function, and Hazard Function
θ
β = 3.4, γ = 0,θ = 1 .
β 1
β. t γ
θ θ 0.5
The Weibull distribution can be used to
0
0 2 4
determine points on a bathtub curve where the
t failure rate is changing from decreasing, to
Figure 6. Example Weibull Distribution, Reliability constant, to increasing. The bathtub curve
Function, and Hazard Function accounts for failure patterns according to
β = 0.8, γ = 0,θ = 1 . Weibull distributions ß <1, ß = 1 and ß >1.

© 2004 SKF Reliability Systems All Rights Reserved 8

 Reliability and Life

Reliability Prediction Hub No. Wheels used Failed/ Total

per Hub Suspended Hours
There are many applications where reliability Run
must be proven using real data. For example,
in supplier-customer relations, the supplier CC995-1 20 Flange 57.2
must provide evidence that products are Failure
reliable according specific criteria. Within
CC995-2 7 Flange 29
SKF, reliability of rolling element bearings, or Failure
other related products, are generally modeled
by endurance testing. Products are tested to CC995-3 8 Flange 34.6
estimate reliability functions and related life Failure
values within a desired confidence region.
CC995-4 16 Suspended 56.9
Specific customer request need special
acceptance testing. In aircraft, automotive, and CC995-5 5 Flange 24.3
Failure
railway industries, reliability based on real
data is a major requirement. Generally, there CC995-6 25 Suspended 60.8
are two key questions:
CC995-7 3 Suspended 11.5
1. How do you estimate reliability functions
from test data?
For the derivation of failure functions, a
2. How do you design an endurance /
software product called Weibest is used. This
acceptance test (number of pieces, test
program was developed by SKF and is
time, etc.), such that the functions can be
commercially available on request.
estimated with desired confidence?
In this article, we only demonstrate an Notice that the number of hours appear to be
example of estimating a Weibull function small due to the fact that in this kind of
based on test data. The second topic is outside endurance testing, extreme conditions are
the scope of this article. Please refer to basic applied to minimize the test period.
book references, or contact SKF for more
information. Result from WEIBEST (v3.00), Inner Ring
Flange Fatigue (1.39 g) Test. Wheels used
to test BARB-636215 HBU
Example Hub Units Acceptance Test
A large automotive manufacturer tests the Estimates with 80% and 90% confidence
reliability of hub units with the requirement limits. Bias corrected values shall be
used when comparing tests.
that the units are more reliable than the
wheels. In other words, the hub units should Wheels Beta Theta L10 L50 L90
survive the wheels significantly. (hr) (hr) (hr) (hr)

Based on experience, a test is designed and Raw 2.31 4.4 1.65 3.73 6.27
Est
performed on 7 hub units over 3 months.
Within that test, 84 wheels are used. For both Bias 2.29 4.4 1.63 3.72 6.29
corr
wheels and hub units, a 2 parameter Weibull 50%
failure distribution is estimated ( β ,θ ) , from
Bias 1.97 4.0 1.34 3.39
which L10 , L50 , L90 are distillated (R(t)=0.9, Corr
R(t)=0.5, R(t)=0.1, respectively). 5%

© 2004 SKF Reliability Systems All Rights Reserved 9

 Reliability and Life

Bias 2.03 4.1 1.41 3.46

Corr
10% Hub Beta Theta L10 L50 L90
Bias 2.55 4.7 1.87 4.00 units (hr) (hr) (hr) (hr)
Corr Raw 2.41 55.9 21.98 48.02 79.02
90% Est
Bias 2.63 4.8 1.94 4.08 Bias 1.73 65.6 17.81 53.03 106.3
Corr corr
95% 50%
Bias 0.57 41.2 2.19 30.29
Result from WEIBEST (v3.00), Inner Ring Corr
Flange Fatigue (1.39 g) Test Hub Unit 5%
BARB-636215 HBU. Bias 0.75 45.1 4.70 35.58
Corr
Estimates with 80% and 90% confidence 10%
limits. Bias corrected values shall be
Bias 3.19 129.6 30.84 89.10
used when comparing tests.
Corr
90%
Bias 3.72 197.6 34.12 122.1
Corr
95%

WEIBEST Output for Wheels

Inner Ring Flange Fatigue (1.39 g) Test
Wheels Used to Test BARB-636215 HBU

Figure 9. Weibull Plot for Wheels. Vertical Axis Show the Failed Percentage of the Population Wheels, Horizontal
Axis Show the Hours that Were Run (Life). The Blocks Indicate the Individual Wheel Failures. The Solid Line is the
Estimated Failure Function.

© 2004 SKF Reliability Systems All Rights Reserved 10

 Reliability and Life

WEIBEST Output for Hub Units

Figure 10. Weibull Plot for Hub Units. Vertical Axis Show the Ailed Percentage of the Population Hub Units,
Horizontal Axis Show the Hours that Were Run (Life). The Stars Indicate the Individual Hub Units that Failed: 4
Out of 7. The Solid Line is the Estimated Failure Function.

Test conclusion: The hub units with • Minimum number of pieces

L10 = 17.81 and β = 1.73 are shown to be
significantly more reliable than the wheels
with L10 = 1.63 and β = 2.29 .
However, this was not the particular request of
the SKF customer. The customer needed to
design a test where less hub units / wheels are
necessary to come to the same conclusions.
The 84 wheels and 7 hub units are quite a cost
for this acceptance test!
For this purpose, an acceptance test was
designed: L10 (Hub unit) > L90 (Wheel) with
L90 = 6.29 hours and β = 2.29 . Following are
the requirements:
• Minimum test time
• Confidence level 90%
• Consumer's risk is 10%
• Producer's risk is 10%
With this data, SKF experts determined that
the test run duration can be reduced to about
15 hours. The derivation of this acceptance
test design is outside the scope of this
introductory article; however, it does illustrate
the applicability of reliability prediction. SKF
has a wide reputation and history in endurance
and acceptance testing that can be generally
applied to any products.

Sources of Reliability Data

By searching general databases with reliability
and maintainability data (referred to as RAM
© 2004 SKF Reliability Systems All Rights Reserved 11
 Reliability and Life

data), relevant information may be found. A typical failure modes for common
few example databases: components.

• OREDA for Offshore Reliability Data, Another list of typical life numbers for various
with turbines, compressors, etc. equipment and components can be found at
(http://www.oreda.com) this website [2]:
http://www.barringer1.com/wdbase.htm
• Process Equipment Reliability Database
(PERD) of the American Institute of Rolling Element Bearing Life
Chemical Engineers
(http://www.AIChe.org) Generally speaking, suppliers provide L10
values for their bearings, but what does that
• Reliability Analysis Center (RAC), see mean in the context of reliability? And what
also [1]: http://rac.iitri.org/
is the relation between L10 and MTBF?
Typical MTBF numbers are listed at the
Reliability Analysis Center’s site. To give an Generally, MTTF is used instead of MTBF, as
idea, some data is provided below. bearings are often replaced after failure. Only
large and relatively expensive bearings are
MTBF (Hours) worth repairing.
(Adapted from [1])
Reliability of rolling element bearings are
Air handling unit 24,000 - 70,000
modeled with Wiebull failure distributions:
Boiler 18,000 - 31,000
β
Chiller 18,000 - 82,000   1  L − L0  
Compressor 34,000 - 66,000 R ( L) = exp −  ln 
  1 − P  L p − L0  
  
Condensor 26,000 - 200,000
Control Panel 465,000 - 780,000 Notice that β , L0 , L p are known as parameters,
Diesel Engine 7,000 - 14,000
and P stands for the probability of survival
Generator
corresponding with L p . Compared to the
Gas Turbine 5,000 - 30,000
Generator general Wiebull function, L p corresponds to
Motor Generator Set 71,000 - 145,000 the scale parameter, and L0 is the location
Pump 31,000 - 143,000 parameter. Generally, a value β = 10 / 9 is
Computer Controller 19,000 - 22,000 used for rolling element bearings. The
assumption of minimum life may hold (for
Switchgear 240,000 -
example L0 = 0.05L10 ), but usually a value of
(insulated bus) 2,5000,000
zero is used L0 = 0 .
Transformer, High 179,000 -
Voltage 12,000,000
Uninterruptible 38,000 - 785,000
Power Supply

Apart from the MTBF, the Reliability

Analysis Center provides information on

© 2004 SKF Reliability Systems All Rights Reserved 12

 Reliability and Life

Assuming the scale parameter L p = L10 , the MTTF

reliability function can be written as: Accounting for variations of h(L), we can
derive the average life (MTTF) as a function
L ≤ L0 ; R( L) = 1 of β and L0 :
β
 L − L0 
 
 L −L 
L ≥ L0 ; R( L) = 0.9  10 0  Γ(1 + 1 / β )
MTTF = L0 + ( L10 − L0 )
(− ln(0.9))1 / β
The corresponding failure probability function
is written as: with:

10 Weibull Γ(1 + 1 / β ) MTTF

β ln  L − L0 
( β −1)
9 slope β (for L0 = 0
f ( L) =   R ( L)
L10 − L0  L10 − L0  and L10 = 1 )

The instantaneous failure rate h(L) is then 0.5 2.000 180.2

easily derived: 0.8 1.133 18.9
1.0 1.000 9.49
10
β ln
 L − L0 
( β −1) 10/9 0.962 7.29
f ( L) 9
h( L) = =   1.2 0.940 6.13
R( L) L10 − L0  L10 − L0 
1.4 0.911 4.54
With β = 10 / 9 , h(L) is a slowly increasing 2.0 0.886 2.73
function of the attained life L, as we 3.5 0.899 1.71
remember from the Wiebull discussion earlier
in this article. Notice that in case of β = 10 / 9 , we can
approximate:
Example: The instantaneous failure rate is
useful; for example, an estimate of the number MTTF ≈ 7L10
of failed bearings per unit of time may be
obtained by multiplying by N (number of
bearings). Therefore, if the calculated life Conclusion
L10 = 3.35Mkm , the total number of bearings Reliability stands for the probability of
in service is N = 648. Assuming β = 10 / 9 satisfactory functioning (operating) over time.
and L0 = 0.05L10 , we can calculate that the A common measure is Mean Time Between
Failure (MTBF) for repairable products, or
number of fatigued bearings within the rating Mean Time To Failure (MTTF) for non-
life L10 is: repairable products.

h( L) × N = (0.1232 / 3.35) × 648 = 23.8 Based on different type of failure

Further, if the running mileage per year is 0.4
million km then h(L = 0.4) = 0.0265. This
means that we can expect the numbers of
failure as 0.0265 × 648 = 17.2 bearings per
year.
distributions, different reliability functions can
be derived. Typical distributions are
exponential or Weibull based. When real
failure data is available from testing or
operation, a failure distribution can be
estimated with specific software like Weibest.

© 2004 SKF Reliability Systems All Rights Reserved 13

 Reliability and Life

Moreover, various (charged) databases with Applied Mechanics, Vol. 18, No. 3, September
RAM data exist. 1951.

Predictions can be made of MTBF and MTTF [10] ReliaSoft Corporation.

of components and/or systems with these
reliability and failure rate functions. This is
generally useful for planning maintenance
activities. Further reading on system reliability
is provided in [11].
References
[1] Reliability Analysis Center, Reliability
Toolkit: commercial practices edition. 1995.
http://rac.iitri.org/
[2] Bloch HP, Geitner FK, Machinery Failure
Analysis and Troubleshooting. Gulf
Publishing Company, 1997 (3rd edition).
[3] Wayne B. Nelson, Applied Life Data
Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, 1982.
http://www.weibull.com/
[11] Schram, G., System Reliability, GS03002,
http://www.aptitudexchange.com
Further Reading
O'Conner, Patrick D.T., Practical Reliability
Engineering - 4th Edition. John Wiley &
Sons, Ltd, 2002.
Schram, G., Maintainability, GS03003,
http://www.aptitudexchange.com
Schram, G., Availability, GS03004,
http://www.aptitudexchange.com

[4] Abernethy, Robert B. The New Weibull

Handbook, 4th Edition, 2000, published by
the author. ISBN 0-9653062-1-6.
http://www.baringer1.com and the related site:
http://weibullnews.com

[5] Bergling G. "The operational reliability of

rolling bearings", Ball Bearing Journal, no
188, 1976, pp. 1-10.

[6] Thyr L.S. Andersson, "Endurance Testing

in Theory", Ball Bearing Journal no. 217,
1983, pp. 14-23.

[7] Thyr L.S. Andersson, "Reliability Tests

within SKF", Ball Bearing Journal no. 243,
1994, pp. 33-40.

[8] Waloddi Weibull, A Statistical Theory of

the Strength of Materials, The Royal Swedish
Institute for Engineering Research (IVA),
Proceedings no. 151, 1939.

[9] Waloddi Weibull, "Statistical distribution

function of wide applicability", Journal of

© 2004 SKF Reliability Systems All Rights Reserved 14