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ENGINEERING
Newnan, Lavelle, and Eschenbach
ECONOMIC
ANALYSIS, 12/e Copyright © 2014 by Oxford University Press
Chapter 8
• Incremental Analysis
• Graphical Technique in solving problems
with mutually exclusive alternatives
• Using Spreadsheets in Incremental
Analysis
A B C D E
Cost 4000 2000 6000 1000 9000
EUAB (A) 639 410 761 117 785
PWB 7330 4700 8730 1340 9000
IRR 15% 20% 11% 10% 6%
P/A 6.26 4.88 7.88 8.55 11.47
12
Incremental Analysis
1. Rank from lowest cost to highest cost
2. Start with two lowest cost alternatives
3. Compare increments using MARR criteria
4. Repeat until a “winner” is determined
D B A C E
Cost 1000 2000 4000 6000 9000
EUAB (A) 117 410 639 761 785
25
Present Worth of Benefit
0.06
20
15
0 $26.42
0 $26.42
10
NEGATIVE NPW
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Present Worth of Cost
14
Graphical Solution
• Projects B, A, C and E shown.
• Incremental analysis looks at adjacent points on the Benefit-Cost Graph
15
Graphical Incremental Analysis
If line between two alternatives is > 45 degrees, accept
higher cost alternative. Alternative A wins.
16
Graphical Incremental Analysis
• Graphical solution has a logical connection to NPW
•Incremental analysis seeks out the alternative with highest NPW.
Alternative A maximizes NPW.
17
Choosing an Analysis Method
Method MARR Computations* Explanation
200k 200k
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1500k
610k
7
EGR 403 - Cal Poly Pomona - SA10
Example 7A-1
8
EGR 403 - Cal Poly Pomona - SA10
Cash Flow Rule of Signs
0 0
1 1
2 2 or 0
3 3 or 1
4 4, 2 or 0
Engineering
9
Economic
Cash Flow Rule of Signs
Expands on This Notion
• There may be as many positive values of
“i” as there are sign changes in the cash
flow.
• Sign changes are counted when:
– + to -
– - to +
• A zero cash flow is ignored
Engineering
10
Economic
Cash Flow Rule of Signs
- Possibilities -
0
0
1
1 or 0
2
2, 1 or 0
3
3, 2, 1 or 0
4
4, 3, 2, 1 or 0
Engineering
11
Economic
Zero Sign Changes
• Receiving a gift
• Giving your friend a loan and not being
paid back
Engineering
12
Economic
What to do if cash flow has two or
more sign changes?
• Traditional approach tends to focus attention on
hypothetical possibilities.
• A simpler approach is to graph present worth values over
an appropriate range of negative and positive interest rates.
• In general, the range (−100%, 100%] includes the interest
rates and present worth values that are useful for decision
making.
• When multiple roots occur, there is usually a negative root
that can be ignored and a positive root that can be used.
• If there is only one root and it is negative, then it is a valid
IRR.
50k
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
70k
180k
4 +50k $50,00
5 +50k $-
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
6 +50k $(50,00)
7 −$70k
$(100,00)
$(150,00)
• In this case, there is one positive root of 10.45%. The value can be
used as an IRR.
• There is also a negative root of −38.29%. This root is not useful.
Copyright Oxford University Press 2014
Example 7A-3
Cash Flow with Multiple Solutions
Adding an oil well to an existing field costs $4M. It will increase
recovered oil by $3.5M, and it shifts $4.5M worth of production
from Years 5, 6, and 7 to earlier years. Thus, the cash flows
for Years 1 through 4 total $8M and Years 5 through 7 total
−$4.5M. If the well is justified, one reason is that the oil is
recovered sooner. How many roots for the PW equation exist?
Is one useful as an IRR, and should the project be funded?
3.5M
2.5M
1.5M 0.5M
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
-0.5M
-1.5M
4M
-2.5M
$0,40
1 +3.5M $0,30
2 +2.5M $0,20
3 +1.5M $0,10
4 +0.5M $-
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
5 −0.5M $(0,10)
$(0,20)
6 −1.5M
$(0,30)
7 −2.5M $(0,40)
$(0,50)
$(0,60)
• In this case, there are positive roots at 4.73 and 37.20%. These
roots are not useful.
3.5M
2.5M
1.5M 0.5M
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
-0.5M
-1.5M
4M
-2.5M
F
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0.5M(F/P, 15%,3)+
1.5M(F/P, 15%,4)+
3.5M
2.5M 2.5M(F/P,15%,5)+
1.5M 3.5M(F/P,15%,6)
0.5M =FW(Rt)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0.5M
1.5M 4M +
2.5M
0.5M(P/F, 8%, 5) +
4M 1.5M(P/F, 8%, 6) +
2.5M(P/F, 8%, 7)=PW(Et)
ENGINEERING
Newnan, Lavelle, and Eschenbach
ECONOMIC
ANALYSIS, 12/e Copyright © 2014 by Oxford University Press
Chapter 9
𝐹𝑊𝑁𝑒𝑤 𝑃𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑡
= 85,000 𝐹 Τ𝑃 , 8%, 3 + 200,000 𝐹 Τ𝐴 , 8%, 3
+ 1,000,000(𝐹 Τ𝑃, 8%, 1)
= $1,836,000
𝐹𝑊𝑅𝑒𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙 = 850,000 𝐹 Τ𝑃 , 8%, 3 + 250,000 𝐹 Τ𝐴 , 8%, 3
= $1,882,000
Copyright Oxford University Press 2014
Benefit-Cost Ratio Analysis
Situation Criterion
Neither input nor output Incremental B/C Ratio Analysis:
fixed: Typical situation • Compute incremental B/C ratio
• If ΔB/ΔC≥1, choose higher-cost
alternative
• If ΔB/ΔC<1, choose lower-cost
alternative
Fixed input: amount of Maximize B/C
money or other input
resources are fixed
Fixed output: fixed task, Maximize B/C
benefit, or other outputs
P=350
P=1000
P=1350
𝐵 𝑃𝑊(𝐵𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑓𝑖𝑡𝑠)𝐴 300(𝑃Τ𝐴 , 7%, 5) 1230
= = = = 1.23
𝐶 𝐴
𝑃𝑊(𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑠)𝐴 1000 1000
𝐵 𝑃𝑊(𝐵𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑓𝑖𝑡𝑠)𝐵−𝐴 50(𝑃Τ𝐺 , 7%, 5) 382
= = = = 1.09
𝐶 𝐵−𝐴
𝑃𝑊(𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑠)𝐵−𝐴 350 350
B/C=0.5
PW of Costs
6000
5000 B B/C=0.5
4000
3000
2000
1000
D
0
$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000
PW of Costs
$2,500 $2,500
Accumulative Benefits
Accumulative Benefits
$2,000 $2,000
$1,500 $1,500
$1,000 $1,000
Payback Period
$500 Payback Period =2.33 years
$500
=2.5 years
$0 $0
0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5
Year Year
Alternative A Alternative B
Accumulative Benefits
Accumulative Benefits
$3,000 $3,000
$2,500 $2,500
$2,000 $2,000
$1,500 $1,500
$1,000 $1,000
Payback Period Payback Period
$500 = 4.4 years $500 = 5 years
$0 $0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
$35,000 $35,000
Accumulative Benefits
Accumulative Benefits
$30,000 $30,000
$25,000 $25,000
$20,000 $20,000
$15,000 $15,000
$10,000 Payback Period $10,000
= 4 years Payback Period
$5,000 $5,000 = 5 years
$0 $0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Tempo Year Year
Dura
22
Contoh 5.8
PBP = $500,000/$92,500
= 5.4054 years
=NPER(0%,92500,-500000)
= 5.4054
Payback Period(3)
Four points to be understood about payback period
calculations :
1. This is an approximate, rather than an exact,
economic analysis calculation
2. All cost and all profits, or savings of the
investment, prior to payback are included
without considering differences in their timing.
3. All the economic consequences beyond the
payback are completely ignored.
4. Being an approximate calculation, payback
period may or may not select the correct
alternative. That is, the payback period
calculation may select a different alternative
from that found by exact economic analysis
techniques.
Metoda Discounted Payback
Period
Cari jangka waktu dimana investasi telah
kembali secara keseluruhan sambil
memperhitungkan time value of money
Tingkatkan popularitas
Cari nilai terkecil m sehingga
m
A
t =0
(1 +
t i ) 0−t
(cari titik waktu dimana kumulatip discounted cash flow > $0)
Contoh 5.6
# years =NPER(10%,92500,-500000)
= 8.16 years
Sensitivity and Breakeven Analysis
• Sensitivity Analysis:
– Projections of expenditures and returns ultimately affect
economic decisions
– To what extend do variations in the data affect the
decision?
• Breakeven Analysis
– It is a form of sensitivity analysis
– In what conditions, two alternatives are viewed as
“indifferent”?
– One application is “staged construction”
PW(Costs)
$150,000
Full capacity
$100,000
𝑃𝑊(𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑠)𝐹𝑢𝑙𝑙 = 140000
𝑃𝑊(𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑠)2 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒
$50,000 Breakeven
= 100000 + 120000(𝑃Τ𝐹 , 8%, 𝑛) point
$0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Year
NPW
𝑁𝑃𝑊𝐶 = 700 𝑃Τ𝐴 , 6%, 20 − 5000
$3,000
= 3029
$2,000
𝑋 ≤ 4300 X
$0.75 $5,165.93
32
What is the impact of the variability of resale
value on the analysis?
By varying the resale value, we find that at about $4200 resale value for the
gasoline powered vehicle the EUAC is almost equal
ENGINEERING
Newnan, Lavelle, and Eschenbach
ECONOMIC
ANALYSIS, 12/e Copyright © 2014 by Oxford University Press
Chapter 11
Depreciation
6
Basic Aspects of Depreciation
Expenses:
• Part of regular business operations
• “Consumed” over short period of time
• Sometimes recurring
• Do not lose value gradually over time
• Subtracted from business revenues as they
occur
• Reduce income taxes as they can be written off
when they occur
• Examples: labor, utilities, materials, insurance,…
Depreciation:
• Business costs due to capital assets are not fully
written off when they occur
• Capital assets lose value gradually over time
• Capital cost must be written off or depreciated
over its depreciable life or recovery period
• Reduce the taxable income, and thus reduce
income taxes as they were written off
• It is a non-cash cost
• Examples: building, plants, machines,…
Taxable Income:
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Gross income $200 $200 $200
All other expenditures -140 -140 -140
Depreciation charges -20 -20 -20
Cash flows for the year $40 $40 $40
Book Value
Depreciation
Cost basis = 𝐵 = Dollar amount being Charges
depreciated including the asset’s Curve values depend
purchase price and any other On depreciation method
costs necessary to make the asset
“ready to use” Salvage value
S
𝐷𝑗 = Depreciation deduction in year 𝑗
Depreciable Life
𝐷𝑗 = Accumulated depreciation
charges from time 1 to 𝑗
Book Value
500 166
0 900
400
1 166 166 734 166
300
2 166 332 568 200
3 166 498 402 100 Salvage value
166
4 166 664 236 0
5 166 830 70 0 1 2 3 4 5
Year
18
Sum-of-Years-Digits (SOYD)
19
Example 11-3 SOYD Depreciation
Cost of the asset, 𝐵 $900
Depreciable life, in years, 𝑁 5
Salvage value, 𝑆 $70
900.00
𝑑𝑡 𝑑𝑡 𝐵𝑉 800.00
Year 277
($1,000) ($1000) ($1000) 700.00
0 $900.00 600.00
Book Value
500.00 221
1 $276.67 $276.67 623.33
400.00
2 221.33 498.00 402.00 166
300.00
3 166.00 664.00 236.00
200.00 111
4 110.67 774.67 125.33 Salvage value 55
100.00
5 55.33 830.00 70.00 0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5
Year
21
Example 11-4 DDB Depreciation
Cost of the asset, 𝐵 $900
Depreciable life, in years, 𝑁 5
Salvage value, 𝑆 $70
900.00
800.00
𝑑𝑡 𝑑𝑡 𝐵𝑉 700.00
360
Year
($1,000) ($1000) ($1000) 600.00
Book Value
500.00 216
0 900.00
400.00
1 360.00 360.00 540.00
300.00 130
2 216.00 576.00 324.00
200.00 78
3 129.60 705.60 194.40 100.00 Salvage value 47
4 77.76 783.36 116.64 0.00
5 46.66 830.02 69.98 0 1 2 3 4 5
Year
24
Example of DDB with Conversion to
SL
• Same example, except that the Salvage Value is $ 30
instead of $ 70
• Year Depreciation Book value at the
end of year
1 $ 360 $ 540
2 $ 216 $ 324
3 $ 129,6 $ 194,4
4 $ 77,76 $ 116,64
5 $ 46,656 $ 69,984
25
Declining Balance depreciation with conversion
to Straight-Line depreciation
where
𝑑𝑡 = Depreciation charge in year 𝑡
𝐵 = Cost basis
𝑟𝑡 = Appropriate MACRS percentage rate
125000
Book Value
100000
SL
75000
SOYD
50000
MACRS
25000 DDB
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Year
0 0 0
Cost Market Book Cost Market Book Cost Market Book
Basis Value Value Basis Value Value Basis Value Value
45
Item is sold for below Book
Value - Ordinary Loss
46
Item sold for more that what was
paid for it-Ordinary & Capital Gain
47
Example 11-9
Depreciation and Asset Disposal
3-year property class, B=$10000
MACRS
Year MACRS, 𝑟𝑡 Depreciation, 𝑑𝑡 Book Value Market Value
0 $10,000
1 33.33% $3,333 6,667
2 44.45% 4,445 2,222
3 14.81% 1,481 741
4 7.41% 741 0
5 0 0 0 X
where
𝑑𝑡 = Depreciation charge in year 𝑡
𝐵 = Cost basis
𝑆 = Estimated salvage value after depreciable life
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑡 = Production for year 𝑡
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 = Total lifetime production for asset
Clay and shale used or sold for use in making sewer pipe or bricks or 7½%
used or sold for use as sintered or burned lightweight aggregates
Clay used or sold for making drainage and roofing tile, flower pots, and 5%
kindred products, and gravel, sand, and stone (other than stone
used or sold for use by a mine owner or operator as dimension or
ornamental stone)
100,000
𝑑1 = $35,000 − 5,000 = $2,000
1,500,000
• Example:
A coal mine has a gross income of $250.000 for the
year. Mining expenses equal $ 210.000. Compute the
allowable percentage depletion deduction !
• Compute percentage depletion :
Gross income from mine
$250000
Percentage depletion x 10%
Computed percentage depletion $ 25000
Percentage Depletion (3)
• Taxable income limitation:
Gross income from mine $250000
less: expenses other than depletion - 210000
Taxable income from mine 40000
Deduction limitation x 50%
Taxable income limitation $ 20000