Projet de communication

"EnergyPLAN case study"

Title Modelling the Scenario towards a 52% renewable energy-system

for Morocco by 2030
Technologies Considered Hydropower, Geothermal, Solar Photovoltaic, Wind Power,
Biomass cogeneration, Condensing Power, & Synthetic fuel
Location Considered (Countries) Morocco

I. Description of the Case Study:

The main objective of this Phd’s thesis is to examine the possibilities and barriers for Neo-Carbon Energy
concept and related business in Morocco. The main idea in Neo-Carbon Energy ecosystem is a 52%
renewable energy (RE) system where mainly solar, wind, and other renewables such as hydro,
sustainable biomass, and geothermal are used as energy sources. This calls for the analyses about the
energy and environmental policy, electricity market design, business and operational environment, and
available energy resources in this country. In addition, energy system scenarios for Morocco are
developed and their impacts on CO2 emissions and costs are analysed using EnergyPLAN simulation tool.

The analysis indicates that Morocco offer one of the largest and dynamic market, but again there are
numbers of challenges to renewable energy infrastructure. The country have abundant forms of energy
resources ranging from hydropower to geothermal, biomass, wind, solar, uranium, coal and natural gas,
which remain largely untapped. Presently, the main source of energy services in Morocco is the
traditional energy (oil and charcoal). Further, the electricity generation market in both countries is partly
liberalized with significant and growing Independent Power Producers (IPPs). the government have
designed some regulatory tools (such as Feed-in tariff scheme, Standardized Small Power Purchase
Tariffs, among others) in order to attract private capital investment in renewable power generation,
while at the same time accelerate the national electricity access rate. Yet, the level of investments in
renewable electricity is currently not sufficient to meet the rapid growing demand for electricity in the
country. In the quest for quick expansion of energy access, Morocco have therefore planned to diversify
their power generation sources and the bulk of the power generation capacities are expected to come
from fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas). Of notable concern is the prominent role given to fossil fuels
in their respective power expansion strategy, which could possibly defer investment in RE technologies
and at the same time put the country in an unsustainable and carbon-intensive path. The high initial
cost of RE technologies possibly is the biggest barrier to RE development in Morocco, coupled with risk
credit and financing mechanisms, ageing and weak electricity transmission and distribution system to
take advantage of the geographically diverse RE resources in the country, and regional mismatch
between main demand centres and hydropower .

In the other part of the analysis, a reference energy system scenario based on actual 2019 data, which is
the most recent year with complete data, was first developed and simulated using EnergyPLAN
simulation model for morocco respectively. Further, three (3) future scenarios - the 2020 BAU scenario,
2030 52 % RE scenario, and finally, the 100% RE scenario - were developed and analysed for each of the
countries. The scenario results suggest that with the wider use of RE particularly, solar, wind power and
different storage technologies, the nation can achieve increased energy access while at the same time
reducing CO2 emissions in a highly cost-effective manner. The results therefore conclude that an energy
system based on 52% renewables is not only technically achievable in Morocco, but also competitive in
term of cost.

II. Steps of Paper :

1. Introduction

Nowadays the world is facing a double challenge in the energy area, the first challenge is the absence of
a secure and adequate energy sources and the second is the environmental losses generated by
excessive energy consumption and using the primary energy sources, such as oil and coal. The energetic
development in the world oriented to the renewable energy development sector, due to the increasing
of electricity demand, the industrial sector growth, and a high price of power conventional energy
resources [1]. The geographical conditions of Morocco mean that it has large potential in terms of the
wind, solar and hydropower [1]. In 2009, Morocco launched the national energy strategy, for renewable
energy and energy efficiency plan as the main pillars. The strategic and general conditions in the country
are oriented to the development of renewable energies. Energy projects in Morocco stand out big time
with a bold target of sourcing more than 52% of its electrical energy from renewable sources by 2030
which 4560 MW solar, 4200 MW wind, and 3100 MW hydropower and plan to have 2000 MW of wind,
2000 MW of solar and 2000 MW of hydropower plants by 2020 [2]. The increasing of the renewable
energy installation has an increasing impact on the electrical grid due to the difficulty in forecasting
production, the maximum capacity that can be injected into the grid, and a deterioration in the energy
quality. In our case, we have estimated the maximal capacity for the renewable energy precisely solar
and wind energy based on the load power of Morocco toward 2030, for this forecasting we are using the
time series methods of forecasting. Excel and MATLAB will be used as aids for analysis.
2. Current Situation of the Energy in Morocco
As electricity demand increase with economic development, Morocco’s current electricity demand
grows strongly with an average rate of 6.5 % per year. Consequently, electricity demand more than
doubled from 16 TWh (TeraWatt-hour) in 2002 to 34 TWh in 2014. For this reason, the production of
energy in Morocco increased by 6 -7% per year between 2002 and 2012 to provide this demand grows.
The total capacity installed in Morocco in 2015 it is 8154 MW, with 34% of renewable energies with the
following mix: Carbon (32%), natural gas (11%), hydropower (22%), fuel oil and

3. Renewable energy potentials in Morocco

Morocco is ready to lead the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in the renewable energy
sector. The limitation of conventional hydrocarbon resources, high energy import from other countries
to satisfy its demand for energy, the Moroccan government historically resorted to fossil fuel
importation and rapidly rising electricity demand have provided Morocco with the impetus to increase
the RE development and appear as a stable target for power sector investment [16]. To resolve its
energy challenges, the kingdom of Morocco is turning to renewable energy development, comprising
the wind, solar and hydro. Morocco has the most ambitious renewable energy targets in the MENA
region, pledging to increase the energy from renewable source to 42% of the country’s
electricityproducing by 2020 and 52% by 2030, evenly separated between the wind, solar and hydro.
4. Load Forecasting for the Morocco Power System over 2030
The electricity demand in Morocco is predictable to increase at a sustained rate over the next few years.
This growing need for electricity is driven primarily by Morocco’s increasing wealth and industry. In this
section, we make an estimate of the electricity demand in Morocco between 2017 and 2030. For that,
we applied the Time Series methods [35] on energy consumption in Morocco between 2008 and 2016
for estimating the energy forecast between 2017- 2030. There are several methods of forecasting, it’s
based solely on historical values for making the forecasts of the future.

1. Characteristics of energy consumption in Morocco

The power consumption is characterized by three cycles of time:

• The annual cycle: The annual peak of the year 2016 was recorded on July 20.

• Weekly cycle: Stable consumption on all days and significantly decreasing at the weekend.

• The daily cycle is characterized by three types: the full time starting at 7h, peak hour (at 12 o’clock),
an evening peak (around 8 pm), and off-peak hour corresponding to the hours of sleep with a minimum
consumption (from 23h to 6h).

Components of time series

The analysis of time series presents a body of techniques to completely understand a data set. We can
decompose the time series into 4 parts:

• The trend is the increment or a reduction in the series over a long period of time. Also known as the
long-term trend.

• The cyclical fluctuation is the undulating up and down variations about the trend that is attributable to
business or market conditions.

• The seasonality in a time series is the variation that happens each month, each year, etc. Seasonal
variations tend to be reproduced from year to year.

• The residual effect is what leftovers having, removed the Trend, Cyclical and Seasonal elements of a
time series. It represents the random error effect of a time series, created by events as widespread as
wars, hurricanes, strikes, and randomness of human actions. The time series models are an equation
specifying how the components articulate with each other to form the time series. There are two classic
models for time series forecasting decomposition based on trend as well as seasonality: The additive
model and multiplicative models.
This section discusses short-, medium-, and long-term load forecasting timescales. Each of these
timescales provides different information and operational value to energy system decision makers
(Hahn, Meyer-Nieberg, and Pickl 2009). Long-term forecasts predict how the system will change over
years and decades, and how that system demand can be met by a portfolio of resources some of which
may need to be constructed. Medium-term forecasting predicts the next months to years of demand
with the goal of planning operations such as near-term impacts of power plant commissioning,
decommissioning, and scheduled outages, as well as reserve margins. Short-term planning is concerned
with hour to week-ahead forecasts that help to produce daily dispatch.
5. Methodology
To identify how Morocco can transform from a fossil-fuel based energy-system to a renewable energy-
system, the first step is to create a model of the Moroccan energy-system. Therefore, a study was
carried out to identify which tool would be most suitable for this investigation. A detailed report of the
various tools considered has been completed and therefore this will not be discussed in detail here.
Instead the two primary reasons that EnergyPLAN was chosen are discussed. Firstly, EnergyPLAN
considers the three primary sectors of any national energy-system: electricity, heat and transport. To
date Morocco has no integration within its energy-system and therefore, the electricity, heat and
transport sectors of the Irish energy-system are completely segregated. However, the integration of the
three sectors is crucial in order to achieve large-scale penetrations of renewable energy, which has been
outlined . Therefore, in order to meet Morocco's energy targets outlined previously, it will be imperative
that Ireland begins to integrate its energy-system more. With this in mind, the EnergyPLAN model had a
key advantage over a number of others considered. Secondly, EnergyPLAN has already been used to
complete several studies that would be beneficial if applied to Morocco. These include studies analysing
the effects of large wind-penetrations , the optimum combination of various renewable energy
technologies in an energy-system , the benefits of energy storage and finally, the pathway towards a
52% renewable energy-system for Morocco . These are typical of the studies that will identify how
Morocco can work towards its 2030 energy targets and beyond. EnergyPLAN is a deterministic
input/output model. General inputs are the demands, renewable energy sources, energy station
capacities, costs, and a number of optional regulation strategies.

Once these assumptions were reflected in the model of the Moroccan energy-system, the capacity of
wind power was increased incrementally to identify an ‘optimum’ solution. The ‘optimum’ solution was
defined as that which enabled the largest utilisation of wind power. Wind power was chosen as the
variable due to the large potential resource currently available in Ireland: there is enough onshore wind
and solar to supply 52% of Morocco’s electricity demand . As the Renewable power capacity increases,
the amount of excess electricity produced also increases: this is referred to as critical ex cess electricity
production (CEEP). In addition, as more Renewable generated electricity is added to the system, the
primary energy supply (PES) of the system varies: typically falling as renewable power is added, reaching
a minimum, and then increasing again as renewable power begins to have a negative impact on the
system. To identify the ‘optimum’ wind capacities for each energy-system, the amount of wind, solar,
and hydro energy, CEEP, PES, and imported electricity required was measured for an installed wind
energy of 25–100% of electricity demand in each energy-system.

6 Results and discussion

Once the data was gathered and the model created using EnergyPLAN, three analyses were completed.
Firstly, a comparison was made between the reference model created, and the actual performance of
the Irish energy-system in 2007. This was completed to ensure that EnergyPLAN was capable of
providing an accurate simulation of the Irish energy-system and follows a less detailed comparison
which was completed in [33]. Secondly, the sensitivity of the existing Irish energy-system to various
economic parameters was analysed: these include fuel prices, CO2 prices, and interest rates. This
analysis was completed to identify future energy costs within the Irish energy-system. Finally, as wind is
the most abundant fluctuating renewable energy available in Ireland, a study was completed analysing
the maximum wind penetration that could be achieved in Ireland, from a technical and economical
point-of-view. The objective of this investigation was to illustrate the potential for immediate
integration of a fluctuating renewable energy onto the Irish energy-system, without any major
redevelopments. To reinforce this argument, the impact of large fluctuating renewable energy
penetrations on conventional power-plants is also examined in detail.
7 Futur work