Environmental and Energy Management

EM6763

Lecture # 04

Course Teacher: Dr. Ghulam Asghar

 Today’s Lecture
 Future Energy Demand
 Sustainability and Green Science/Engineering
 Introduction

 Historical Perspective

 Resource Limitations

 Sustainable Development Considerations

 Future Trends of Sustainability

 Future Energy Demand
 The demand for energy throughout the world obviously impacts every
country.
 Although it is difficult to estimate and a strong function of time, rough
estimates of world energy demands are provided in Table 3.1.
 Future Energy Demand
 It is obviously difficult to predict future demands of energy. One simple
approach is to generate mathematical equations (models) for predictive
purposes based on earlier/past data.

 There are, of course, other approaches that can be employed, particularly

when little-to-no information is available.

 A viable and popular method is to employ a Delphi panel approach or

Theodore panel approach.

 The practicing engineer often encounters applications (e.g., describing

future energy demands) that require the development of a mathematical
relationship between data for two or more variables.

 For example, if Y (a dependent variable, e.g., energy demand) is a

function of or depends on t (an independent variable, e.g., time), that is:
 Future Energy Demand
 One may be required to express this
(Y, t) data in equation form.

 This process is referred to as

regression analysis, and the regression
method most often employed is the
method of least squares.

 An important step in this procedure—

which is often omitted—is to prepare
a plot of Y versus t.

 The result, referred to as a scatter

diagram, could take on any form.
Three such plots are provided in
Figure 3.1(a–c).
 Future Energy Demand
 The first plot (a) suggests a linear
relationship between Y and t—that is:

 The second graph (b) appears to be best

represented by a second-order (or
parabolic) relationship—that is:

 The third plot suggests a linear model

that applies over two different ranges;
that is,

 In any event, a scatter diagram and

individual judgment can suggest an
appropriate model at an early stage in
the analysis.
 Future Energy Demand
 Some of the models often employed by technical individuals are as follows:

 Procedures to evaluate the regression coefficients a0, a1, a2, etc. are provided
as follows:

 The analysis is based on the method of least squares.

 This technique provides numerical values for the regression coefficients ai

such that the sum of the square of the difference (error) between the actual
Y and that predicted by the equation or model Ye is minimized.

 This is shown in Figure 3.2 (on next slide).

 Future Energy Demand
 In Figure 3.2, the dots (experimental value of Y)
and triangles (equation or model value of Y, i.e.,
Ye) represent the data and model values,
respectively.

 On examining the two figures, one can conclude

that the error (Y – Ye) squared and summed for
the four points is less for the lower figure.

 Also note that a dashed line represents the

error. The line that ultimately produces a
minimum of the sum of the individual errors
squared—that is, has its smallest possible
value—is the appropriate regression model
(based on the method of least squares).
 Future Energy Demand
 A cubic model takes the form of;
 For n pairs (more than four) of (Y, t) values, the constants a0, a1, a2, and a3
can be obtained by the method of least squares so that Σ(Y – Ye)2 again
has the smallest possible value (i.e., is minimized).
 The coefficients a0, a1, a2, and a3 are the solution of the following system
of four linear equations:

 Because there are four equations and four unknowns, this set of
equations can be solved for a0, a1, a2, and a3.
 This development can be extended to other regression equations (e.g.,
exponential, hyperbolic, higher order models, etc.).
 Future Energy Demand
 The correlation coefficient (r) provides information on how well the
model, or line of regression, fits the data.
 It is denoted by r and is given by;

 The correlation coefficient satisfies the following six properties:

 Future Energy Demand
 The correlation coefficient satisfies the following six properties:

 It should be noted that the correlation coefficient (r) only provides

information on how well the model fits the data.

 It is emphasized that r provides no information on how good the model is

or, in other words, whether this is the correct or best model to describe
the functional relationship of the data.
 Future Energy Demand
 Finally, it should be noted that any energy or energy-related models
developed in this manner should be adjusted for projected market effects
(if applicable) such as the cost of adding SO2 flue gas removal equipment,
higher price for crude, strip mining legislation, increased exploration
costs, global supply and demand, etc.
 The cost of energy will no longer enjoy its coveted position of the past; it
will cost more, much more, and be harder to obtain.
 Fossil fuels and their utilization will almost certainly have to fill both the
demand and the price gap.
 In the final analysis, one can either accept or reject the harsh projections
for the future obtained by extending the consumption patterns and
trends of the past, which establish the basis for defining “energy
demand.”
 Once it has been determined that the demand exists, the choice among
the various means of energy conversion systems, either available at
present or in some stage of development, can be made.
 Future Energy Demand
 This requires an evaluation for each means of power generation of the
available fuel resources, the environmental implications, the advances in
waste energy recovery, technology improvements, and the relation to
relevant economic and social issues.

 However, all of these considerations are themselves influenced by

assumptions regarding future demands for power, and these, too, must
be re-examined.

 For example, by analyzing the various components that presently

constitute energy demand, various alternatives can be devised to
maximize the long-term social return per unit of energy consumed.

 In turn, such alternatives may have important implications for the

economic system, for social processes, and for lifestyles.
 Sustainability and
Green Science/Engineering
 Introduction
 The term “sustainability” has different meanings to different people. To
sustain is defined as to “support without collapse.”
 The broader definition of sustainability is: Humanity has the ability to
make development sustainable—to ensure that it meets the needs of the
present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet
their own needs.
 In a very real sense, “sustainability” involves simultaneous progress in
four major areas: human, economic, technological, and environmental.
 The United Nations (UN) defined sustainable development as
development that meets the need of the present without compromising
the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.
 Sustainability requires conservation of resources, minimizing depletion of
nonrenewable resources; and using sustainable practices for managing
renewable resources.
 Introduction
 There can be no product development or economic activity of any kind
without available resources. With the exception of solar energy, the
supply of resources is finite.

 Efficient designs conserve resources while also reducing impacts caused

by material extraction and related activities. Depletion of nonrenewable
resources and overuse of otherwise renewable resources limit their
availability to future generations.

 Another principal element of sustainability is the maintenance of the

ecosystem structure and function. Because the health of human
populations is connected to the health of the natural world, the issue of
ecosystem health is a fundamental concern to sustainable development.

 Thus, sustainability requires that the health of all diverse species, as well
as their interrelated ecological functions, be maintained.
 Introduction
 The term “green” should not be considered a new method or type of
chemistry or engineering.

 Rather, it should be incorporated into the way scientists and engineers

design for categories that include the environment, manufacturability,
disassembly, recycle, serviceability, and compliance.

 And, it should be noted that activities in the field of green engineering

(and green chemistry as well) are increasing at a near exponential rate.
 Sustainability: Historical Perspective
 To develop an understanding of why sustainability is a topic of urgency
today, one should understand the history behind it.
 As agriculture developed, social structure supporting agriculture grew as
well. Social stratification (classification) became increasingly widespread
as humanity proceeded from agriculture to industry.
 Eventually, a new class-based society led to differences in standards of
living between the rich and the poor. As population grew, technical
development spiraled up as well.
 The increase in demand for goods and more powerful equipment led to
increased extraction of natural resources. Environmental effects built up
slowly, gaining momentum as the problem worsened.
 Due to population’s uncertainty and limited understanding when a
problem is identified, the problem is often so bad that even an immediate
response may not be able to solve it.
 Examples of such delay and momentum have been exhibited by damage
to the ozone layer and possibly global warming.
 Sustainability: Historical Perspective
 In 1983 the UN Commission was created to address growing concern
“about the accelerating deterioration of the human environment and
natural resources and the consequences of that deterioration for
economic and social development.”
 In establishing the Commission, the UN General Assembly recognized that
energy and environmental problems were global in nature.
 It was determined that it was in the common interest of all nations to
establish policies for sustainable development.
 A total of 178 governments participated, with 118 sending their heads of
state or government.
 Some 2,400 representatives of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs)
attended, with 17,000 people at the parallel NGOs.
 One of the issues addressed, which deals with carbon dioxide-related
global warming, was alternative sources of energy to replace the use of
fossil fuels, which are linked to global climate change.
 Resource Limitations
 Most have defined the Earth as consisting of four parts:
 Atmosphere
 Lithosphere
 Hydrosphere
 Barysphere
 The atmosphere is the gaseous envelope that surrounds the solid body of
the planet. Without air, the average individual cannot survive for more
than 2 or 3 minutes.
 The lithosphere is the solid rocky crust of the Earth, extending to a depth
of perhaps 40 km (25 miles).
 The hydrosphere is the layer of water, in the form of the oceans, that
covers approximately 70 percent of the surface of the Earth.
 The barysphere, sometimes called the centrosphere, is below the
lithosphere. It is the heavy interior of the Earth constituting more than
99.6% of the Earth’s mass.
 Resource Limitations
 From a sustainability perspective, the two major resources available to
humans are the lithosphere and, to a lesser degree, the hydrosphere.
 These are finite, and for all intents and purposes, nonrenewable.
 The rocks of the lithosphere primarily consist of 11 elements, which
together account for about 99.5% of its mass.
 The most abundant is oxygen (about 46.60% of the total), followed by
silicon (about 27.72%), aluminum (8.13%), iron (5.0%), calcium (3.63%),
sodium (2.83%), potassium (2.59%), magnesium (2.09%), and titanium,
hydrogen, and phosphorus (totaling less than 1%).
 In addition, 11 other elements are present in trace amounts of 0.1–0.02%.
These elements include carbon, manganese, sulfur, barium, chlorine,
chromium, fluorine, zirconium, nickel, copper, and vanadium.
 The elements are present in the lithosphere almost entirely in the form of
compounds rather than in their free state. The most common compounds
of the Earth’s crust are silicates & aluminosilicates of the various metals.
 Resource Limitations
 The hydrosphere consists chiefly of the oceans, but technically includes all
water surfaces in the world, including inland seas, lakes, rivers, and
underground waters.

 Traditionally, humans have viewed Earth’s resources as a source of

economic wealth—minerals, food, forests, and land on which to place
buildings and other structures.

 These were looked upon as assets to be exploited. The loss of these

resources would be catastrophic.

 In addition to food, humans obtain shelter, health, security, mobility, and

other necessities through activities involving energy resources that are
carried out by individuals, businesses, and government entities.

 By their very nature, these utilize resources (renewable and

nonrenewable) and all tend to produce wastes.
 Resource Limitations
 One of the greatest challenges facing humanity during the 21st century
will surely be that of providing every individual on the planet access to
safe, clean, and sustainable energy supplies.

 The use of energy has been central to the functioning and development
of human societies throughout history. However, in recent years, fossil
fuel energy usage has run into several issues.

 World petroleum resources are presently strained as prices for petroleum

reached painfully high levels (the price of crude oil exceeded $100 per
barrel).

 Natural gas and crude oil supplies are being expended at a growing rate.

 Furthermore, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projected that more

than 80% of world energy demand will continue to be met by fossil fuels
in 2030.
 Resource Limitations
 Therefore, there is an immediate need to increase the present efficiency
of fossil fuel usage. This can include:
 Increasing the mileage efficiency of transportation sources
 Improving the energy efficiency of new power plants
 Developing “green” buildings and sustainable communities
 Waste heat recovery
 Energy efficiency analyses
 Natural resources were initially abundant relative to needs.
 In the earlier years of the Industrial Revolution, production was limited by
technology and labor.
 However, today, labor population is in surplus as technology has reduced
the need for human labor.
 Resource Limitations
 Increasingly, production is becoming limited by the Earth’s natural
environment that includes the availability of natural resources.

 The demand for most resources has increased at a near exponential rate.

 The emergence of newly developing economies, particularly those in the

highly populated countries of China and India, has further increased the
demand for resources.

 Humans need to realize that reducing material demand, particularly from

nonrenewable sources, is essential to sustainability.

 There are some elaborate systems in place to reduce material demand

and the potential exists for much greater reductions.

 Naturally, wherever possible, materials should come from renewable

sources and materials should be recyclable as much as possible.
 Sustainable Development Considerations
 Sustainable development demands change. Consumption of energy,
natural resources, and products must reduce or hopefully eliminate
waste.

 The manufacturing industry can develop green products that can meet
the sustainability requirements.

 Life cycle analyses, design for environment, and toxic use reduction are
elements that help sustainability.

 Reliability is the ability of a product or system to perform its function for

the length of an expected period under the intended environment.

 Reducing the number of components in a system and simplifying the

design can enhance the reliability.

 Screening out potentially unreliable parts and replacing them with more
reliable parts helps to increase system reliability as well as sustainability.
 Sustainable Development Considerations
 Adaptable designs rely on interchangeable parts. For example, consumers
can upgrade components as needed to maintain state-of-the-art
performance.

 Design continuity between models in the same product line increases

interchangeable parts.

 The parts must be designed for easy disassembly to encourage

remanufacturing.

 Design of products that emphasizes efficient use of energy and materials

reuse and recycling reduces waste and supports sustainability.

 By effective recycling, material life can be extended. Materials can be

recycled through open-loop or closed-loop pathways.

 For example, postconsumer material is recycled in an open loop one or

more times before disposal.
 Sustainable Development Considerations
 However, in a closed-loop pathway, such as with solvents, materials
within a process are recovered and used as substitutes for raw material.
 Minimizing the use of raw materials supports sustainability.
 Thus, resource conservation can reduce waste and directly lower energy
demand and environmental impacts.
 Finally, responsible businesses can begin moving toward sustainability by
taking seven following steps:
1. Foster a company culture of sustainability.
2. Initiate voluntary performance improvements.
3. Apply eco-efficiency (material and energy conservation, toxic use
reduction, recycling, etc.) concepts.
4. Grasp opportunities for sustainable business growth and
sustainability.
 Sustainable Development Considerations
5. Invest in creativity, innovation, and technology for the future.
6. Reward employee commitment and actions for sustainability.
7. Encourage thinking “outside the box.”
 It has been estimated that only 1 out of 15 proposed new processes ever
reaches the production stage.
 So project knowledge at the preliminary stage is vital to prevent financial
loss on one hand and provide opportunity for success on the other.
 It is important to determine whether a sustainable project has promise as
early in the development stage as possible.
 Life cycle analysis (LCA) has developed over the past 20 years to provide
decision makers with analytical tools that attempt to account for the
energy and environmental consequences and benefits of competing
projects accurately and comprehensively, including those in the
sustainability basis.
 Sustainable Development Considerations
 LCA is a procedure to identify and evaluate “cradle-to-grave” natural
resource requirements and environmental releases associated with
processes, products, packaging, and services.

 LCA concepts can be particularly useful in ensuring that identified

sustainable opportunities are not causing unwanted secondary impacts by
shifting burdens to other places within the life cycle of a product or
process. LCA is an evolving tool undergoing continued development.

 Corporations are recognizing the benefits of sustainability activities.

 Sustainability openly allows companies to reduce the cost of doing

business, create consistency, improve public image, and be recognized on
a national level as environmental leaders.

 However, before the cost of a project can be evaluated, the factors

contributing to the cost must be recognized.
 Future Trends of Sustainability
 Sustainable development is feasible. Sustainable development means a
change in consumption patterns toward energy and environmentally
more gentle products, and a change in investment patterns.
 It will require a shift in the balance of the way economic progress is
pursued.
 Environmental concerns must be properly integrated into rearrangement
policies and the environment must be viewed as an integral part of
human well-being.
 Finally, some very pivotal steps that must be taken in the near future,
must include implementing greatly improved technologies for the
harnessing of fossil and nuclear fuels in order to ensure that their use, if
continued: creates much lower energy environmental, and social impacts;
developing and deploying renewable energy sources on a much wider
scale; and, making major improvements in the efficiency of energy
conversion, distribution, and use.
 Quiz No. 1
 It is a reminder that there would be a
Quiz# 1 from Assignment No. 1.
Thank You