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A detailed explanation and validity of this 1990s when major retail chains like Barnes &
assertion can be found in Rosenbloom and Noble and Borders Inc. introduced
Christensen (1994) and Christensen (1997). superstores with up to 60,000 sq. ft of retail
In order to manage the disruptive technologies space with 175,000 titles in stock, with
so as to gain advantage in the marketplace, espresso cafeÂs, they changed the process of
organizations need to have the ability to buying books into a social atmosphere. Then
harness the ``laws of organizational nature'' or in 1995, Amazon.com opened its Web site,
the forces ensuing from disruptive allowing consumers to browse 4.5 million
technologies. Christensen (1997) identifies a titles from the comfort of their own home.
set of four principles, and argues that a Today these three entities (Amazon, Barnes &
consideration of these would enable the Noble and Borders Inc.) account for 45 per
success of enterprises faced with disruptive cent of total trade sales.
technologies. Christensen's four principles In order to assess the successes and failures,
are: given the backdrop of the Internet, we have to
(1) Companies depend on customers and consider two particular pieces of information.
investors for resources. First is the revenue growth rate of Web retail
(2) Small markets do not solve the growth sales, which, according to Forrester Research,
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a disruptive technology and the customers The whole exercise to reposition Amazon
seem to like it, but it has a negative cash flow requires a large amount of capital. Already
and has a bad debt load, there is a strong investors are not expecting Amazon to have
likelihood that the investors (or venture positive earnings until 2005 and it still will not
capitalists) would not be as enthusiastic as be a profitable company until 2015 because of
they would have been. According to the all the accrued losses over the years. If it has
theory of resource dependence, such a to go to the equity markets again and push
situation puts the company on to the failure these timetables back again, Wall Street and
(or not too successful) path. the investment banks could react in a very
The theory of resource dependence negative manner towards Amazon. Evidence
assertions is evidenced within the B2B of nervousness in the marketplace can be
marketplace. Although venture capitalists gauged from the fact that on 22 July 2000
have been rather aggressive in pouring money Lehman Brothers Inc. released a grating
into the B2B arena (nearly $800 million was report about Amazon's credit rating situation.
invested in 77 e-exchanges in early 2000 and The report suggested that, in the first
another $500 million in mid-2000), the dquarter of 2000, Amazon's operating cash
customers have not been too responsive. For flow decreased from $31.5 million to a
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example, within the chemical industry, when negative $320.5 million. The report also
Industrialvortex.com attempted to aggregate asserted that the company's inability to make
products from numerous suppliers, they faced hard cash on unit sales was a consequence of a
stiff resistance since the suppliers felt that
weak balance-sheet, poor working capital
such an e-marketplace would give buyers an
management and a massive negative
easy access to cheap suppliers (as reported in
operating cash flow.
Business Week, 11 September 2000). In this
Lehman Brothers Inc.'s report has come
case, although the venture capitalists had
under criticism from a number of quarters,
supported the initiative, the customers were
but the debate has been rather academic as to
simply overwhelmed with the idea and did not
whether the analysis presented by debt
come on board.
analysts should prevail over that of the equity
Let us for a moment consider the case of
analysts. One aspect is, however, certain, and
Amazon.com. One of the primary problems
that relates to the decreased confidence that
facing Amazon was to build a brand image
the market might have in Amazon. Already,
within the book industry. This it was able to
following Lehman Brothers' report, Amazon's
do with relative ease by leveraging its future
stock dropped 19 per cent in one day; and the
earnings potential in the equity market to
raise capital to spend huge amounts of money question that arises is: do the investors have
on advertising and to form key alliances with faith in Amazon's business? Would they back
Internet service providers and search engines. its attempt to diversify and grow?
Now the problem for the future is that it did The happenings at Amazon hark back to
such a good job building a brand name in the the basic argument proposed by the theory of
book business it is finding it tough to move resource dependence and Christensen's
into other markets. Therefore, as it tries to re- principle. The course of events and
position itself to enter other markets with a management decisions are indeed setting the
new marketing campaign, its flank is exposed company on to a failure (or not too
to other online book retailers like Barnes & successful) course. The firm and the equity
Noble to come in and take away some of the analysts are banking on the customers alone
online market share Amazon developed. To a for a recovery. The company is expecting a 59
limited extent this was evidenced recently per cent jump in sales to $4.5 billion, while
(September 2000) when Barnes & Nobel the operating and marketing expenses would
moved in to occupy the privileged spot on the increase by 8 per cent and 7 per cent
US Yahoo.com site, which for the past three respectively. Amazon CEO Bezos contends
years had been occupied by Amazon.com. To that in the end his company would be far
go a step further, Barnes & Nobel has also more profitable than any conventional brick
entered into a strategic partnership with and mortar firm. Although this may be true,
Yahoo.com. Such a move clearly does not the competition for Amazon does not come
please the Amazon investors, although it may from a traditional retailer, but from
have a limited impact on the customers. companies such as Barnesandnobel.com, the
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Interpreting the role of disruptive technologies in e-businesses Logistics Information Management
Gurpreet Dhillon, David Coss and Ray Hackney Volume 14 . Number 1/2 . 2001 . 163±170
online arm of the brick and mortar Barnes & high quality customer service over the Web
Nobel. (as quoted in Business Week, 10 July 2000).
Amazon's behavior could be explained using
Principle # 2: small markets do not solve Christensen's second principle that small
the growth needs of large companies markets do not solve the growth needs of the
It goes without saying that it is the disruptive large firms. Amazon clearly has become a
technologies that enable new markets to large firm with $1.6 billion in annual sales and
emerge; and many companies that 7,500 employees; and the online trade
successfully leverage the disruptive segment of the book publishing industry is
technologies to their benefit gain significant but a relatively small market. In order to
first mover advantages. However, once these remain on the growth path, Amazon strategy
companies get entrenched in their specific has been to reposition itself such that it
market, they find it difficult to enter newer should no longer remain just in the business
small markets, which could potentially be very of selling books online.
profitable. Evidence suggests (for example, Compare Amazon's strategy with that of
refer to the Apple case as described by Barnes & Nobel. In order to compete with
Christensen (1997, pp. 134-6)) that large Amazon and have a stake in the business of
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companies, enabled by disruptive selling books online, the traditional brick and
technologies, which have successfully seized mortar firm decided to launch a totally
opportunities within new markets have done separate firm that would look at the online
so by creating a separate entity to side of the business. This company did not
commercialize the disruptive technology. affect the current working on the brick and
The B2B chemicals sector is a good example mortar firm. In fact Barnes & Nobel has been
to illustrate this point. There are nearly 15 criticized for the lack of integration between
different electronic marketplaces to support the the online and the traditional lines of business.
complex supply chain within the chemical Such a move can be compared to the online
industry. There are a multitude of buyers and B2B forms backed by Bayer, Du Pont and
sellers; and the market is valued at almost $1.6 Dow Chemicals in the chemical industry.
trillion. Apart from Indie ChemConnect Inc., In considering the strategies of Amazon and
which had significant first mover advantage by Barnes & Nobel in light of Christensen's
entering the market in 1995, the other successes principle, it seems clear that Barnes & Nobel
have been the e-business backed by traditional is on the right course and that Amazon may
brick and mortar firms. Prominent among these have to work extremely hard to maintain its
are Elemica, Omnexus and Envera, which have position in the online book sales business.
been backed by Bayer, Du Pont and Dow This is especially when Amazon has invested
Chemicals respectively. This clearly supports nearly $300 million to build five distribution
the above assertion that a large firm wanting to centers in 1999 and hired scores of customer
wear an entrepreneur's hat and enter a relatively service representatives. In many ways, the
smaller market could possibly do so by Amazon model is moving in the direction of a
launching a new venture that has the capacity to click to brick model. However, one thing is
capitalize on the disruptive technology. certain, that, if Christensen's principle holds
From Amazon's stand-point it is in a ground, Amazon may not remain a major
dilemma. On the one hand, CEO Bezos wore competitor to Barnes & Nobel, at least in
an entrepreneur's hat to launch a very online book sales; although in the long run
successful online firm; on the other, at the Amazon might succeed overall and may
present time, the company has become so big equate itself more with an ``online Walmart''
that it finds it hard to enter newer markets. than with Barnes & Nobel.
Critics of Amazon's strategy contend that
most powerful brands in the world stand for Principle # 3: markets that do not exist
something simple (e.g. Microsoft for cannot be analyzed
software, Gateway for computers), but Disruptive technologies present an interesting
Amazon seems to be moving away from just dilemma. Management principles suggest
books to toys, furniture and cars. In Bezos' market research and good planning as critical
mind this may be a conscious move to aspects of implementing a strategy. However,
reposition the company image. Bezos has since research about future success can only be
been quoted as saying that Amazon stands for carried out for technological impacts that have
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Interpreting the role of disruptive technologies in e-businesses Logistics Information Management
Gurpreet Dhillon, David Coss and Ray Hackney Volume 14 . Number 1/2 . 2001 . 163±170
already taken place, it is difficult, if not newer products. And on $676 million in sales
impossible, to analyze a market for disruptive for the fourth quarter (1999), Amazon had to
technology. Such analysis can only be carried write down $38 million on inventories,
out for sustaining technologies. A good particularly for electronics and toys. Whereas
example can be found in the case of E*Trade. at one time Amazon could boast of excellent
Although E*Trade redefined the manner in inventory management, today apparently there
which stocks could be traded, the company fell are problems managing it adequately. Inability
short of understanding the nature and scope of to turn over its inventories rapidly can be
the market, i.e. to what extent it could succeed attributed to poor retail management, and
in being an exclusive online firm? Since it was largely so because it is hard, if not impossible,
easier for E*Trade to judge the conventional to forecast various aspects of the marketplace.
markets (the typical brick and mortar firms), it This is evidenced when considering Amazon's
decided to pursue the strategy where its online rate of inventory turnover. It plummeted from
brokerage and banking operations would be 8.5 times in the first quarter of 1998 to 2.9
supported by real-world outlets. In realizing times in the first quarter of 2000. In 1999,
this strategy, E*Trade is building a network of while Amazon's sales grew 170 per cent over
18,000 ATMs in drugstores, supermarkets and 1998, its inventories soared to 650 per cent.
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gas stations. Likewise, the first standalone Classic supply chain management suggests
E*Trade offices are expected to go up on a that, when inventories are growing faster than
30,000 square-feet area in midtown New York. sales, it means that a company is not selling as
Considering the moves and marketplace for much as it is buying. Ideally, inventory
Amazon, two possibilities can be interpreted. increase should grow along with growth in
First, as mentioned earlier, Amazon felt the sales rates.
dire need to build warehouses since it did not To a large extent the two possibilities
want to disappoint holiday customers in pursued by Amazon are a consequence of an
1999. It did achieve this, which is evidenced inability of the firm to adequately judge the
by repeat orders constituting 76 per cent of marketplace. As has been suggested, ``markets
sales. Although investments in warehouses are that do not exist cannot be analyzed''.
one time investments and could potentially be Christensen affords further evidence by
used in the future, one thing is certain, that bringing to bear data from the conventional
Amazon would have to go beyond the online disk drive manufacturing industry. While it
book sales business to positively realize the was possible to forecast the demand for
earnings. In contrast, Barnes & Nobel sustaining technologies such as the 2.5 inch
acquired the Ingram Group. Stephen Riggio, and the 14 inch Winchester drives, it was next
CEO of barnesandnoble.com, the vice chair to impossible to come to grips with the
at Barnes & Noble itself, gave the following forecasts for the 5.25, 3.5 and 1.8 inch drives,
statement about why it acquired the Ingram which were the disruptive technologies at that
Group. ``It has great management, it has great time. The actual shipments for the 2.5 and 14
technology, it has great expertise in logistics inch Winchesters matched the actual
and fulfillment. And in order to be successful demand. However, the actual shipments far
in e-commerce going to the next century, we exceeded the forecast for the 5.25 inch drives.
think a company needs that core competency. In the case of 3.5 inch drives, what they
Our core competency is book selling, actually shipped marginally exceeded the
Ingram's is logistics, technology and demand, and in the case of 1.8 inch drives the
fulfillment and they have ten centers.'' Clearly actual shipments were far less than had been
the original core competence of Amazon (i.e. forecasted.
selling books online) got diluted and it had to
search for new greener pastures. Principle # 4: technology supply may not
The possibility pursued by Amazon has been equal market demand
to diversify into other products. This was Since the pace of technological improvement
essential because of the existing over-capacity usually far exceeds the performance
in warehouses and in the distribution channels. improvement rate that mainstream customers
Furthermore, there was limited space within can absorb, the companies whose
the online book market to grow, at least within technological features match customer
the USA. Again, it has been rather difficult for demands today may overshoot mainstream
Amazon to adequately forecast demand for market needs tomorrow. Such a trend harks
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Interpreting the role of disruptive technologies in e-businesses Logistics Information Management
Gurpreet Dhillon, David Coss and Ray Hackney Volume 14 . Number 1/2 . 2001 . 163±170
back to the classic product life cycle model claims that it has ownership of the technology
often used by marketers to develop and and that it has approved patent rights. The
implement their marketing strategies (for Amazon argument has, however, been
example, see Tellis and Crawford (1981) for diluted, primarily because of its efforts to
review and critique). In the initial stages, reposition itself, in an endeavor to move far
when no product or service is available in a beyond an online book selling business.
given market, emphasis tends to be on Barnes & Nobel, however, have continued to
``functionality''. This emphasis then gradually mature in the online book selling business. By
shifts to reliability, convenience and price. focusing on reliability and convenience
Within the scope of the Internet acting as a aspects in the first quarter of 2000
disruptive technology, a good example comes barnesandnoble.com experienced a 147 per
from the business of developing conventional cent growth in revenue and obtained a 67 per
photographic films. The first mover cent second time user rate. It has also been
advantage clearly went to America On Line able to realize the benefits of innovative ideas
and Kodak, albeit at a price. The service was like e-publishing. During spring 2000 it
carefully positioned to address the needs of offered Steven King's new short story that
those who wanted to have the ability to share could be purchased and instantly downloaded
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earlier core competence of selling books bonus structure of retail managers and their
online to servicing the customer needs, bottom line. Recently, with Stephen Riggio
Barnes & Nobel capitalized on managing the taking control of barnesandnoble.com, whose
supply chain better and has only recently older brother runs Barnes & Noble, the 550
started focusing on the customer needs. stores have been helpful in promoting the
Barnes & Nobel has, however, done so within Web site by offering online discount coupons
the scope of online book selling business. to customers who buy products in the stores.
Amazon, because of external pressures to This type of communication between the
show a profit has expanded its product companies will help to position
offerings, simply to spur customers to spend barnessndnoble.com to leverage the
more. In many ways, Amazon has gone to the management skills that exist within brick and
other extreme of overwhelming the mortar Barnes & Noble.
customers. Research has shown that, in Third, it goes without saying that the ability
structuring organizations for competitive of a company (i.e. the capability) to compete
advantage, overwhelming the customer might within a given context is a function of the
have a negative consequence (cf. Dhillon and idiosyncratic skills and processes in place (cf.
Hackney, 1999) Dhillon and Lee, 2000). Whenever firms used
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addressed four important strategic issues, customers like. Wal-Mart has been successful
with which all companies entering the e- in the traditional retail market because of its
commerce arena should be concerned. It is core competence in logistics; now it plans on
aligning the IT activities with corporate using this core competence to establish itself
business strategy by answering the questions in the e-commerce market. Other brick and
of how its IT activities are going to reach new mortar companies like Gap, Macy's, Sears,
markets, generate revenue, and make a profit. Tower Records, Toys'R'us are being forced
It has a good understanding of its core to dive into the e-commerce market to
competencies and IT capabilities, which it develop their online brand identity or lose
allows to influence its corporate strategy. It is their market share to a start-up dot.com. As
starting to realize the benefits it can gain from these different companies bring their core
leveraging the knowledge pool from managers competencies with them to the online
in the 550 retail stores. It has also developed
community they should be able to develop
an effective Web site, which has the easy to
and maintain a profitable e-business strategy
use platform customer's desire. By adopting a
to maintain, or at least compete for, their
proactive role (cf. Cortada, 1998), Barnes &
market share within their core industry. In the
Noble has been able to develop a strong and
end, success will be defined by the ability of
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170
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