2k Factorials

Black Belt Wave 4

Week 3 Black Belt Training

Define Measure Analyze Improve Control

Overview Partial Tool List Deliverables

• Utilize all the • 5S  Results of Experiments
knowledge gained so • Kaizen and/or Improvements,
far to develop the • DOE including variance from
solution. • Control Charts objectives (if any)
• Conduct tests, • RTC (SMED)  Updated FMEA
experiments, and pilots. • TPM  Updated Process Map
• At the end of this • Standard Work  New Process Capability
phase, we will have our • Future State VSM  Training Plan
solution, the new • Team-Building Tools
process, and its new
capability.

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Week 3 Black Belt Training

Define Measure Analyze Improve Control

 DOE Introduction  Catapult Exercise

 Full Factorials  TPM
 2K Factorials
 2K Center Points &
Blocking
 Fractional Factorials
 Multiple regression

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Do you know 2k Factorials?

I’m a I’ve read I’ve had I’ve I could

beginner about it training used it teach it

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Learning Objectives

 Introduce 2k factorial designs.

 Learn how main effects and interactions are
calculated from contrasts.
 Demonstrate and practice the use 2k factorial designs
with Minitab

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 2k Factorials

 2k designs are experiments where we have k factors, each one at two

levels.
 These levels may be quantitative, such as two values of temperature,
pressure or time; or they may be qualitative, such as two machines,
two operators, and high or low levels of a factor; or perhaps the
presence and absence of a factor.
 A complete replicate of such a design requires 2*2*2*…*2=2k
observations and is called a 2k factorial design.
 Because there are only two levels of each factor we assume that the
response is approximately linear over the range of the factor levels
chosen.

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 2k Factorial Designs -- Notation

 2k designs are experiments where all factors have only two levels.
 How many factors and levels in a 2k factorial?
 How many treatment combinations?
 Notation:
 In General: How many factors and levels in a 2 x 2 x 2?
 How many treatment combinations in a full factorial?
 How many factors and levels in a 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2?
 How many treatment combinations in a full factorial?
 How many factors and levels in a 27 experiment?
 How many treatment combinations?

Key concept! 2k Factorials 7

 Adding to the DOE Method
1. State the practical problem and experimental objective
2. State the factors and levels of interest
3. Select the appropriate sample size
 Stat>Power and Sample Size>2-Level Factorial Design
4. Design the experiment
 Stat>DOE>Factorial>Create Factorial Design…
5. Run the experiment/Collect the data
6. Construct the ANOVA table for the full model
 Stat>DOE>Factorial>Analyze Factorial Design…
7. Re-run a reduced model by eliminating non-significant (high-p-value)
or low Sum-of Squares effects (Pareto or Normal Plot)
8. Investigate the residual plots to ensure model adequacy
 Stat>DOE>Factorial>Analyze Factorial Design…
Then click the Graphs button and under “Residual Plots”,
select “Four in one”.
Key recipe! 2k Factorials 8
 DOE Method (continued)
9. Investigate the significant interactions (p-value < .05) – highest order first
 Stat>DOE>Factorial>Factorial Plots or
 Stat>ANOVA>Interaction Plots
10. Investigate significant Main Effects (p-value < 0.05)
 Stat>DOE>Factorial>Factorial Plots or
 Stat>ANOVA>Main Effects Plots
11. State the mathematical model obtained (Y=f(x)). Calculate %SS’s
and evaluate for practical significance.
12. Translate the model into real process terms. Draw conclusions and make
recommendations.
13. Replicate the optimum conditions. Plan next experiment &
institutionalize the change

Key recipe! 2k Factorials 9

Factorial Design Notations

 One factor level is designated “low” and coded as –1.

 The other level is designated as “high” and coded as 1.

It does not really matter which level is designated as high or low.

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Exercise

Assume a chemical process which has two

reactants. As an example, consider an
investigation into the effect of the concentration
of these two reactants on the yield
(conversion) of the chemical process.

How many factors???

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22 Design Example (continued)

 Let the reactant concentrations be factors A and B.

 Let factor A’s levels be 20 percent and 40 percent and factor B’s
levels be 15 percent and 30 percent.
 The experiment is replicated three times and the data is as
follows:

Treatment
Replicate
Factors combination
Average

A B I II III
- + A low, B high 28 30 26 84/3=28
+ - A high, B low 24 28 26 78/3=26
- - A low, B low 18 20 22 60/3=20
+ + A high, B high 38 40 36 114/3=38

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 22 Example Graphically
a denotes the effect of factor A, b denotes the effect of factor B
and ab denotes the AB interaction
b = 28
ab = 38
High 30%

concentration B
Reactant

Low 15%
(1) = 20 a = 26
Treatment
combination Replicate
Factors
Average
Low High
A B I II III
40%
- + A low, B high 28 30 26 84/3=28
20%
+ - A high, B low 24 28 26 78/3=26
- -
A low, B low 18 20 22 60/3=20
+ +
A high, B high
38 40 36 114/3=38 Reactant concentration A

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Main Effects

 In a 2K DoE:
 The main effect for a factor is the average of all the data
when the factor is at the high level minus the average of all
the data when the factor is at the low level

Main Effect = Response high – Response low

 For the previous example, the Main Effect of factor A

is: 32  24  8
(a +ab)/2=
(26 +38)/2 (1 +b)/2=
(20 +28)/2

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 2k Example
 An engineer wants to determine the change in alloy hardness (HRC)
with changes in the Heat Treat process. He designs an experiment
using:
 two different temperature profiles (Low and High)
 two time profiles (short and long)
 furnaces from two different Temp Time Furnace
manufacturers. -1 -1 -1
 He only has enough resources 1 -1 -1
to run one replicate.
-1 1 -1
The DOE matrix would be:
1 1 -1
-1 -1 1
1 -1 1
-1 1 1
1 1 1

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Calculating Main Effects From Contrasts
 Multiply the response by the contrast for that factor
 Sum the values and divide by n (the number of values for any level).
 In other words, if there are eight total runs, and a factor has two levels, there are
four runs at the high level of the factor and four at the low level of the factor. In
this case n = 4.
Temp Time Furnace HRC HRC*Temp HRC*Time HRC*Furnace
-1 -1 -1 43
1 -1 -1 45
-1 1 -1 45
1 1 -1 49
-1 -1 1 43
1 -1 1 46
-1 1 1 45
1 1 1 49
Sum
n
Sum/n

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 Calculate Main Effects
From Contrasts
 Multiply the response by the contrast for that factor
 Sum the values and divide by n (the number of values for any level).
 In other words, if there are eight total runs, and a factor has two levels, there
are four runs at the high level of the factor and four at the low level of the factor.
In this case n = 4.

Temp Time Furnace HRC HRC*Temp HRC*Time HRC*Furnace

-1 -1 -1 43 -43 -43 -43
1 -1 -1 45 45 -45 -45
-1 1 -1 45 -45 45 -45
1 1 -1 49 49 49 -49
-1 -1 1 43 -43 -43 43
1 -1 1 46 46 -46 46
-1 1 1 45 -45 45 45
1 1 1 49 49 49 49
Sum 13 11 1
n 4 4 4
Sum/n 3.25 2.75 0.25

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Contrasts and Calculations
for Interactions
 How do you calculate the contrasts for the interactions?
 Multiply them together!
 Calculate the magnitude of the interactions the same way, too.
Temp Time Furnace T*Tm*HRC T*F*HRC Tm*F*HRC T*Tm*F*HRC HRC
-1 -1 -1 43 43 43 -43 43
1 -1 -1 -45 -45 -45 45 45
-1 1 -1 -45 45 45 45 45
1 1 -1 49 -49 -49 -49 49
-1 -1 1 43 -43 -43 43 43
1 -1 1 -46 46 46 -46 46
-1 1 1 -45 -45 -45 -45 45
1 1 1 49 49 49 49 49
13 11 1 3 1 1 -1 Sum
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 n
3.25 2.75 0.25 0.75 0.25 0.25 -0.25 Sum/n

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DOE Method Demonstration

An engineer wants to determine the change in alloy hardness with

changes in the Heat Treat process. He designs an experiment
using:
 two different temperature profiles (Low and High)
 two time profiles (short and long)
 furnaces from two different manufacturers.
He only has enough resources to run one replicate.

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Heat Treat Example

Step 1: State the practical problem

The Engineer would like to improve the hardness of a steel alloy.

Step 2: State the factors and levels of interest

Temp Profile 1 & 2, Time Profile 1 & 2, Furnace A & B

Step 3: Select the sample size

Given: 1 replicate (How many runs?)

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Step 4: Design the Experiment

In Minitab; go to Stat > DOE > Factorial > Create Factorial Design
Click the “Designs” button and then select the “Full factorial” design. Click OK.

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Step 4: Design the Experiment
(continued)

Select the “Factors” button and enter the names of the Factors.

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Step 4: Design the Experiment
(continued)

 Select the “Options” button and set the fields as shown:

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Step 4: Minitab Output

Click on OK on the main DOE menu and you should get this:

Step 5: Run the experiment/Collect the data

Data is in Minitab file HeatTreat.mtw
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Step 6: Analyze the Full Model
Open the Minitab worksheet HeatTreat.mtw.
Select Stat>DOE>Factorial>Analyze Factorial Design…
Click on the “Graphs” button, and under “Effects Plots”, select “Normal”
and “Pareto”, then click OK, OK.

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 Minitab Output – Full Model
Estimated Effects and Coefficients for HRC (coded units)
Term Effect Coef
Constant 45.6250  The value of effect is calculated as the
Temp 3.2500 1.6250 amount of the change that occurred when
Time 2.7500 1.3750 the factor was moved from level –1 to 1.
Furnace 0.2500 0.1250  The coefficient is the amount of the change
Temp*Time 0.7500 0.3750 that occurs with a one unit change, thus in
Temp*Furnace 0.2500 0.1250 a two level factorial, the coefficient is half
Time*Furnace -0.2500 -0.1250 of the calculated effect.
Temp*Time*Furnace -0.2500 -0.1250
S = *

Analysis of Variance for HRC (coded units)

Source DF Seq SS Adj SS Adj MS F P
Main Effects 3 36.3750 36.3750 12.1250 * *
2-Way Interactions 3 1.3750 1.3750 0.4583 * *
3-Way Interactions 1 0.1250 0.1250 0.1250 * *
Residual Error 0 * * *
Total 7 37.8750

The DOE analysis routine does not show the ANOVA table for the details. It only
shows the table for the main categories.
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Using Minitab Graphs to Select Terms

Normal Probability Plot of the Effects

(response is HRC, Alpha = .10)
99
Effect Type
Not Significant
95 Significant
90 A F actor N ame
A Temp
80 B Time
B
70 C F urnace
Percent

60
50
40
30
20

10
5

1
-1 0 1 2 3
Effect
Lenth's PSE = 0.375

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The Pareto Diagram
Pareto Chart of the Effects
(response is HRC, Alpha = .10)
0.995
F actor N ame
A Temp
A
B Time
C F urnace
B

AB
Term

AC

ABC

BC

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5

Effect
Lenth's PSE = 0.375

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Step 7: Re-run With the Reduced Model

Select Stat>DOE>Factorial>Analyze Factorial Design…

Click on the “Terms” button. Remove terms ABC, BC, AC, and C, then click OK.

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Turn on the Residual Plots
Click the “Graphs” button, then under “Residual Plots”, select “Four in one” and
click OK, OK.

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 Minitab Results – Reduced Model

Estimated Effects and Coefficients for HRC (coded units)

Term Effect Coef SE Coef T P

Constant 45.6250 0.1250 365.00 0.000
Temp 3.2500 1.6250 0.1250 13.00 0.000
Time 2.7500 1.3750 0.1250 11.00 0.000
Temp*Time 0.7500 0.3750 0.1250 3.00 0.040

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Step 8: Investigate the Residuals
Do the residuals look normal? Are the Residuals vs. Fits plotted randomly
About zero with no trends? Are there any trends in sample order or outliers?
Residual Plots for HRC
Normal Probability Plot of the Residuals Residuals Versus the Fitted Values
99
0.50
90
0.25

Residual
Percent

50 0.00

-0.25
10
-0.50
1
-0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 44 46 48
Residual Fitted Value

Histogram of the Residuals Residuals Versus the Order of the Data

6.0 0.50

4.5 0.25
Frequency

Residual

3.0 0.00

1.5 -0.25

-0.50
0.0
-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Residual Observation Order

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Step 9: Investigate the Interactions
Select Stat>DOE>Factorial>Factorial Plots…

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Minitab Output – Interactions Plots

Interaction Plot (data means) for HRC

-1 1

Temp
48
-1
1
46
T emp

44

Time
48 -1
1
46
T ime

44

Furnace
48
-1
1
46
Fur nace

44

-1 1 -1 1

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Step 10: Investigate the Main Effects

Main Effects Plot (data means) for HRC

Temp Time

47

46

45
Mean of HRC

44
-1 1 -1 1
Furnace
47

46

45

44
-1 1

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Step 11: Mathematical Model

From the Minitab analysis:

Estimated Effects and Coefficients for HRC (coded units)

Term Effect Coef SE Coef T P

Constant 45.6250 0.1250 365.00 0.000
Temp 3.2500 1.6250 0.1250 13.00 0.000
Time 2.7500 1.3750 0.1250 11.00 0.000
Temp*Time 0.7500 0.3750 0.1250 3.00 0.040

HRC = 45.6 + 1.6 x Temp + 1.4 x Time + 0.4 x (Temp*Time)

2k Factorials 36
 Step 11 (cont.): Calculate %SS

To get all of the Sums-of-Squares, you must run the Balanced ANOVA.
Go to Stat>ANOVA>Balanced ANOVA… In the “Responses” field, enter
“HRC”. In the “Model” field, enter “Temp Time Temp*Time”. Next
click on OK.

Analysis of Variance for HRC %SSTemp = 21.125/37.875*100% = 55.8%

%SSTime = 15.125/37.875*100% = 39.9%
Source DF SS %SSTemp*Time = 1.125/37.875*100% = 3%
Temp 1 21.125
%SSError = 0.500/37.875*100% = 1.3%
Time 1 15.125
Temp*Time 1 1.125
Error 4 0.500
Total 7 37.875

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Step 12: Translate into Practical Terms

HRC = 45.6 + 1.6 x Temp + 1.4 x Time + 0.4 x (Temp*Time)

Conclusions:
 On average, if the process parameters are set neither high nor
low, the mean hardness will be 45.6
 Temp & Time are both important to hardness.
Recommendations:
 To maximize HRC, set Temp & Time to the high level. The
estimate for HRC at this operating point is 49.
 A control system might want to address the interaction between
Temp & Time, but the effect of the interaction is small.

Step 13: Replicate the optimum conditions. Plan the next experiment and
institutionalize the change.

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2k DOE Homework

During the heat treat experiments, the engineer also

included Samples of a different steel alloy. This data is in
column HRC2 in the Minitab worksheet HeatTreat.mtw.

Use the DOE Method to analyze the data for this second
alloy.

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Summary

 2k basics
 Factorial Design Notations
 Calculating the Main Effect & Interaction
values from contrasts
 How to apply the 2k DOE steps and translate
the outcome in practical terms.

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 Questions?

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Nypro LSS
Training Material Change Log

Date Name Description

7 August 2009 Scott Ford Updated for Wave 3. Based upon Wave 2 Material.

19 Feb 2010 Scott Ford Updated for Wave 4

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