Black Pepper

Global Balance Sheet -2024

Jasvinder Singh Sethi

1
Operational Definitions

• Stock Brought forward/Opening (A)

• Production (B)
• Imports (C)
• Domestic Consumption(D)
• Exports (E)
• Stock Carry Forward /Closing (F)

A + B + C – D- E = F

All stocks are in Tradeable form.

Weight losses on processing have been factored.

2
 Balance sheet Adopted at IPC 2023 Conference –Kuching , Malaysia

2023 (Estimation) 2024 (Projection)

COUNTRY Opening Closing Stock Closing
Production Import Dom. Cons Export Production Import Dom. Cons Export
stock /Carry FWD Stock

Global India
Indonesia
40
38
87
65
40
0
114
35
20
22
33
47
88
65
40
0
115
37
21
28
26
47

Estimates for Malaysia

Sri Lanka
21
3
20
25
2
0
10
14
8
12
21
1
21
27
2
0
11
14
8
13
24
1

2023 Vietnam
Brazil
74
40
190
95
36
1
10
10
245
90
45
36
170
105
44
1
10
10
210
95
39
37

& China
Thailand
26
4
27
2
60
6
85
9
3
1
25
3
27
2
60
6
85
9
3
1
24
3
Madagascar 0 5 0 2 4 0 5 0 2 4 0
2024 Cambodia 11 19 0 1 18 11 19 0 1 18 11
Ecuador 5 4 0 1 1 7 4 0 1 1 9
TOTAL 262 543 146 291 423 229 533 154 294 401 221

1. Qty in ‘000 MT or KMT

2. It was pointed out by the moderator that Vietnam is perhaps under balling their numbers and the crop numbers could be higher.
3. India, Indonesia, Malaysia provided clarifications and also accepted to correct their numbers per the Industry feedback.

3
Global Level : Balance Sheet Analysis 2024* compared to 2023

2023 2024 Qty ''000 MT or KMT

Global Production 2024 : Expected to be
600 lower by 2% or 1000 MT . Vietnam
543 533
expects a lower crop whereas Brazil
500
423
expects a higher crop in 2024. Others
401 expect marginal Change.
400

291 294
300 262 Opening stock 2024:
229 229 221 In 2023 despite slow growth from other
200 146 154 regions, Chinese opening of borders has
led to lower opening stock in 2024 as
100 compared to 2023.
-
Closing stocks/Carryover end of 2024:
Opening Stock Production Import Domes Cons Export Carry Over
Weak export demand and modest
10% 6% growth in domestic consumption will
1% lead to a drop by a modest 3% in closing
0%
stocks, despite lower production.
-2% -3%
-10% -5%

-20% -13% % Difference

* Essentially a projection based on initial surveys.

4
Country Wise Analysis

• India
• Indonesia
• Malaysia
• Sri Lanka
• Vietnam
• Brazil
• China
• Cambodia

5
Cambodia Harvest : April
Growing Region Area in Ha Balance Sheet Analysis

Tboung Khmum

Battam bang Kampong Thom Kratie

Cambodian Pepper : Stabilised close to 20 KMT finds home in Vietnam and Thailand through
the Porous Borders.
2024 Crop looks ok and estimated to be similar to previous year at close to 19-20K MT.

6
China Harvest : March/April
Growing Area Balance Sheet Analysis

Source : Chinese Spice Association
The second largest consumer of Pepper after India, China grows only 20% of its 85000MT
annual demand and is dependent mostly on Vietnam for the balance close to 60,000 MT of
Imports. In 2022 a lock down brought the pepper markets down followed by a revival in
prices once China reopened in 2023. Typically, Chinese traders start buying after TET and are
able to go deep into the Vietnamese countryside and purchase leading to a squeeze whenever
they enter.

7
Vietnam Harvest : March/April
Growing Area Balance Sheet Analysis

Opening stock 2024:

Qty '000 MT/KMT With opening of the lock
down in China followed by
300 massive imports the
245
250 carryover from previous
210
190 year reduced by almost 30
200 170
K MT or 40%.
150
100 74 *Production 2024:
45 36 44 45 39
50 Though reported by VPA at
10 10
165 KMT and then revised
-
to 170 KMT, appeared to
Opening Stock Production Import Domes Cons Export Carry Over
be under balled by atleast
2023 2024 15-20 KMT.

Exports 2024 : Despite an

Opening Stock Production Import Domes Cons Export Carry Over export of 245 KMT ,
40% 22% Vietnam expects that this
20% would reduce by 14% to
0%
0% 210KMT in 2024 due to the
non- Chinese markets
-20% -11% -14% -13% importing more from Brazil
-40% than Vietnam.
-39% % Difference
-60%
Imports 2024 : Expected
higher in 2024 from other
* Namagro Feels that new crop 2024 is decent as compared to previous year and could +/- 5% of 2023 . We also feel that
origins to full fill the
Source : VPA exports will not drop to 210 and will be in the vicinity of 240KMt to 250kMT (assuming no geopolitical event leads to closure of demands of the processing
a big market t like – India/China/USA/EU or the Middle east.) industry in Vietnam.

8
Brazil
Growing Area Balance Sheet Analysis

2023 2024 Opening stock 2024:

Para-30 KMT
Qty '000 MT/KMT With a lower than
120 expected crop in 2023 due
105 to weather issues the
95 95 opening stock for 2024 is
100
90 expected to be lower by
11%
80
*Production 2024:
Bahia- 15 KMT The crop for 2024 is
60
expected to be higher by
Espiroto Santo 40 close to 10% or 10 KMT
36 36 37
40 due to planting in previous
60k MT
years.
20
10 10
Exports 2024 :
1 1 With the advent of
Total close to 40 K Ha -
infrastructure such as
Opening Stock Production Import Domes Cons Export Carry Over
steam sterilisation the
Para country expects to regain
its traditional market of
Opening Stock Production Import Domes Cons Export Carry Over EU.
20% 11%
10% 6% 3% Carry over :A better crop in
Espiroto Santos and Bahia 0% 0%
2024 may lead to a slightly
0%
higher inventory at the end
-10% % Difference
-11%
of 2024.
-20%

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India Harvest : Dec/Jan-Feb
Growing Area Balance Sheet Analysis

Opening stock 2024:

Opening stock is expected
Qty '000 MT/KMT to be marginally lower due
to increasing consumption.
140 2023 2024
114 115
120 *Production 2024:
100 87 88 The crop for 2024 is
80 expected to be marginally
60 higher by close to 1%
40 33 40 40
33 26
40 20 21 Exports 2024 :
20
Indian exports are mainly
-
for re-exports and striking
Opening Stock Production Import Domes Cons Export Carry Over feature are the essential
oils and the oleoresins.
100% of Indian exports are
after value addition.
Opening Stock Production Import Domes Cons Export Carry Over
10% 1% 0% 4% Carry over : Lower opening
0%
0% , growing domestic
-10% consumption and exports
Major growing provinces -20% are reasons for slightly
-17% % Difference -20% lower closing stocks for
Indian pepper is mostly intercropped with coffee, -30%
2024.
areca nut etc .
*after many years India corrected its production and consumption figures from 65 K to 88K and 70K to 115K respectively.

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Indonesia Harvest : Aug-Sep
Growing Area Balance Sheet Analysis

2023 2024 Qty '000 MT/KMT

At the outset We appreciate
70 65 65 Indonesian team to admit
that data seemed implausible
60 and their agreement to revise
the production numbers In
50 47 47 47 line with the expectations of
the trade.
38
40 35 37
28
30 Indonesia production figures
22 were revised from 88k Mt to
20 65KMT. Exports in 2023
dropped as Indonesian
10 pepper prices were much
0 0 higher that export prices due
- to a robust domestic
Opening Stock Production Import Domes Cons Export Carry Over consumption .

Opening and closing stocks

continue to remain a mystery
Opening Stock Production Import Domes Cons Export Carry Over
in this origin. With reduction
40% 32% on production figure the
30% 23%
% Difference stocks have been rationalized
20% /normalized a bit . More
10% 6%
0% 0% needs to be done to decipher
0% the stock levels.
-10% 0%
Source : MOA, Indonesia

11
Malaysia Harvest : Aug-Sep
Growing Area Balance Sheet Analysis

Qty '000 MT/KMT

30
2023 2024
24
25
21 21 21 21
20
20

15
11
10
10 8 8

5
2 2

-
Opening Stock Production Import Domes Cons Export Carry Over

At the outset we thank the Malaysian delegation to agree to correct the stock numbers. Due to an ever-increasing crop number not
Source : MOA, Malaysia supported by tantamount exports and domestic consumption led to balancing numbers of carryover stock to bloat. The stock level
was reported at 50KMT after years of mismatch in the equation.

This year with the consent of all participants numbers were rationalised. Domestic consumption was expected to rise due to industrial
use through innovation of SMES – pepper used in hand sanitizers and soaps.

2024 crop is expected to be similar with small increases in consumption and exports. Opening and closing stocks were still high in
values and may not reflect reality which may require another round of deliberation.

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Sri Lanka Harvest : Two seasons : Jun- Jul and Oct-Jan
Growing Area Balance Sheet Analysis

2023 2024 Qty '000 MT/KMT

30
27
25
25

20

14 14
15 12 13

10

5 3
Major growing provinces
1 1 1
- -
-
Opening Stock Production Import Domes Cons Export Carry Over
• Pepper is the widely used spice in Sri Lanka. Nearly 40% is
locally consumed
• Subsistence income for large no. of families.
• Grown throughout the country, mainly as
home garden crop.
A very stable origin which consumes 40% and exports 60% of its produce.
• Second most important spice in terms of
Exports are mostly to Extraction companies in India.
exports and earnings.
• High intrinsic quality due to high piperine.
2024 crop outlook remains similar to previous year. Carry over remains very low in this origin traditionally . This
• High potential for expansion to other parts of
year due to currency depreciation export prices were attractive for importers of this Origin.
the country.

13
Closing Remarks
Sum -total of Crop
in origins is
Demand for expected to be
exports is similar or slightly
expected to stable less as compared
to marginally to previous year.
lower/ assuming
no Geopolitical
surprises

Carryover stocks
are lower to
previous year due
to offtake by China
in 2023

Market is expected to be Range bound for 2024 unless impacted by speculative forces or
Jasvinder Singh Sethi
Geopolitical events. Downside is very limited as farmers/collectors tend to hold after a particular
level.

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• IPC 2023 – Kuching , Malaysia
• Moderated The 2-day session.
• Finalized the Global Balance sheet with Key stake holders..

Jasvinder@namagro.com
+84902362683

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