MINISTRY OF INDUSTRY AND TRADE

ELECTRICITY AND RENEWABLE ENERGY AUTHORITY

OVERVIEW OF THE VIETNAMESE ENERGY SECTOR

VIETNAM ENERGY OUTLOOK REPORT 2021

Dr. Nguyen Tuan Anh

Deputy Director General - EREA

Hanoi, June 2022

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 TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY
TPES in 2015-2020
o Total primary energy supply (TPES) 100

MTOE
increased considerably. Significant 80
increase of emissions.
60

40
o Coal accounted for the largest share
(52%), mainly used for power plants. 20

0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
o Renewable energy (including Than Dầu thô và các sản phẩm dầu
Khí tự nhiên Năng lượng tái tạo
hydropower) accounted for 15% in Nhập khẩu điện
2020.
✓ Vietnam’s energy intensity is still significantly
higher than that of other neighboring countries.
✓ The Herfindahl - Hirschmann Index (HHI) shows the
increasing diversification of energy sources in
TPES due to the recent rapid increase in coal
demand (the lower the HHI, the higher the
diversity).

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

HHI 2773 2792 2806 3046 3316 3597

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 DOMESTIC ENERGY EXPLOITATION
Domestic commercial energy mix
Năm 2015 Năm 2020
Thủy điện Thủy điện
8,0% 11,9%
NL Tái tạo
15,5% Than NL Tái tạo Than
34,0% 16,1% 40,2%

Khí
13,7%
Khí
14,8%
Dầu thô Dầu thô
28,7% 17,0%

o Crude oil, coal, gas, hydropower and renewable energy Domestic energy mix in 2015-2020
(wind, solar, biomass) are the domestically exploited energy 70

MTOE
sources. 60
o In 2020, due to the impact of COVID, the total amount of 50
energy domestically exploited is 52.8 MTOE, a significant
40
decrease compared to 2019, which was 58.1 MTOE.
30
o In the period 2015-2020, crude oil decreases from 28.7% in
20
2015 to 17.0% in 2020. The share of remaining fuel groups
increased, notably coal increased from 34.0% in 2015 to 10

40.2% in 2020. 0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Than Dầu thô Khí NL Tái tạo Thủy điện

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 ENERGY IMPORT/EXPORT
100%
60 60%

MTOE
90%
Nhập khẩu 50 48%
Primary energy supply [%]

80% điện 50%

40 40%
70% NLTT 40%
30
60%
20 27% 30%
50% Khí tự
nhiên 10 18%
40% 16% 20%
30% Dầu thô và 0
8%
sản phẩm 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 10%
20% -10
từ dầu
10% Than -20 0%

0% Nhập khẩu Xuất khẩu

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Nhập khẩu tịnh Phụ thuộc nhập khẩu trong TPES

o Vietnam became a net energy importer in 2015 with increasing energy

import.
o Coal accounts for a large proportion in the import mix and TPES.

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 TOTAL FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
TFEC structure by fuel type
❖ In 2010-2019, annual Năm 2019demand went
energy Năm 2020
up by an average of 4.3%. During 2015-2019,
Điện
the total
27,9%
final energy consumption (TFEC) Than Điện
24,1% 28,4% Than
grew quite rapidly, by 7.9% per year,
31,0%
reaching 64.5 MTOE in 2019. Due to the
impact of the pandemic, the TFEC growth in
2020 compared to the previous year was
only 2.28%, reaching 66 MTOE.
NLTT NLTT
❖ Energy11,5% consumption structure had a strong 8,6%
shift from
Khí other fuels to electricity, reflecting
Các SP Dầu Khí
2,3% 2,3%
the competitiveness and accessibility 34,2% of Các SP Dầu
29,7%
electricity.
❖ By 2020, the industrial sector accounted for TFEC structure by sector
53% of TFEC, followed by the transport and
Năm 2019 Năm 2020
residential sectors, 19%Nôngand nghiệp
15.5%
respectively. 5,2% Nông nghiệp
❖ Under the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, GTVT
Công nghiệp
4,9%
Công nghiệp 53,1%
47,5% energy demand in 2020 in the Transport 23,0% and GTVT
Services sectors decreased, but 18,9%

consumption in the Industrial sector still

increased. Dịch vụ Dịch vụ
4,1% 3,7%
Phi năng Phi năng
lượng Dân dụng lượng Dân dụng
4,0% 16,2% 4,0% 15,5%
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 POWER SYSTEM
o In 2021, the total installed capacity of power sources was 78.4 GW. The scale of the
Vietnamese power system is the top of ASEAN.
o Vietnam is one of the 10 leading countries in the world in investment in RE power
sources (wind and solar).

Installed capacity growth in 2010-2021

90
78.4 NK Lào (thủy điện)
80
69.3 Điện mặt trời
70
Installed capacity (GW)

Điện gió
60 55.9
49.4 Thủy điện nhỏ (dưới 30MW)
50 46.0
42.0 Thủy điện lớn
38.9
40 34.1
29.9 Điện sinh khối &khác
30 26.3
23.4
20.4 NĐ khí, dầu +Diesel
20
Tua bin khí
10
NĐ than nhập
0
NĐ than nội
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

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 ENERGY IN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR

❖ Energy supply for the transport sector in Vietnam accounted for 23% of the total
primary energy supply in 2020.
❖ The transport sector accounts for about 15% of CO2 emissions excluding other
pollutants and is the industry that causes significant air pollution, negatively
affecting people's health.
❖ The transport sector is currently facing several challenges: Traffic congestion in
cities; Air pollution; Dependency on fuel imports and climate impacts
350
250 Đường

Cargo volume [billion tons-km]

300
hàng không
200
Passenger volume [billion

250
Đường hàng Đường biển
passengers-km]

không 200
150
Đường thuỷ
Đường thủy
150 nội địa
100 Đường bộ
100 Đường bộ
50 Đường sắt
50
Đường sắt
0 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Prel. 2020 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Prel. 2020

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 CLIMATE IMPACTS AND POLLUTION

Current status of GHG emissions in Vietnam

Sector 1994 2000 2010 2015 2020

Energy 25.6 52.8 141.2 171.6 247
Industrial activities 3.8 10.0 21.2 38.6 68.2
Agricultural production 52.5 65.1 88.4 89.8 88.3
Land use, land use change and
19.4 15.1 -19.2 -37.5 -45.9
forestry (LULUCF)
Waste 2.6 7.9 15.4 21.5 13.1
Total 103.8 150.9 246.8 283.9 370.7

o In 2020, the total GHG emission in Vietnam was 370.7 million tons of CO2 equivalent, of
which the energy sector accounted for 67%.
o GHG emissions from energy use and exploitation increased from 141.2 million tons of CO2
equivalent in 2010 to 247 million tons of CO2 equivalent in 2020, of which 45% was related
to power production in 2020.

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 KEY POLICY GOALS

The Vietnamese Government has issued a number of key policies for

sustainable energy development with four main pillars: energy efficiency,
renewable energy, energy market, and climate change.

Goal 2020 2025 2030 2045 2050

Renewable energy
RE proportion in primary
energy supply
15-20% 25-30%
(Resolution 55/NQ-TW)

Energy saving compared to BAU

Energy savings in final
energy demand (VNEEP3)
5-7% 8-10%

GHG emissions reduction compared to BAU

Resolution 55/NQ-TW 15% 20%
Net zero commitment at Net zero
COP26 emission

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CHALLENGES (1)

Sufficient energy supply to meet the rapidly increasing energy demand for socio-economic
development

• With an estimated annual economic growth of 7%, energy/power demand for

socioeconomic development will be maintained at a high level. Forecasted power
demand will increase by about 10% in the next decade. Thus, to adequately and
timely develop infrastructure for the energy system is a big challenge.

Limited domestic energy reserve and supply

• Domestic energy sources with limited reserves such as natural gas, oil, coal,
hydropower and biomass are being exploited.
• Increased dependence on imported fuel
• Challenges in building new ports to import coal and LNG
• Challenges in integrating wind and solar power into the power system in terms of
timing and geographic aspect
• Effective policy tools for RE development expansion

Low compliance of EE regulations and limited adoption of EE solutions

• VNEEP3 sets an energy saving target of 5 - 7% of the total national energy

consumption in the period 2019 - 2025 and from 8 - 10% of the total national
energy consumption in the period 2019 - 2030. The implementation of energy
saving targets in this period still faces many challenges.
• Low energy/electricity price demotivates businesses and people in investing in
energy efficient technologies

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CHALLENGES (2)

Capital needs for energy development, especially in the context of high public debt and
the capital allocation requirement for other sectors of the economy
• To meet investment capital needs for energy infrastructure in light of the reduction of
Government guarantees for energy projects, it’s necessary to consider the liberalization
of competitive service sectors and fair treatment for new market participants.

Energy market is only at a nascent stage

• To effectively transition to market-based pricing, Vietnam should consider: (i) to develop

a comprehensive and flexible price reform plan; (ii) to develop a strong communication
strategy; (iii) to appropriately adjust the price from time to time, (iv) to improve the
efficiency of SOEs, (v) to encourage energy efficiency, and (vi) to minimize the
interventions of the state on energy pricing

Sustainable energy development

• Total GHG emissions in the four sectors, i.e., energy, agriculture, LULUCF and waste
went up from 225.6 million tons of CO2 equivalent in 2010 to 466 million tons in 2020
and is forecasted to reach about 760.5 million tons by 2030. The energy sector remains
the largest source of GHG emissions with 381.1 million tons of CO2 equivalent in 2020
and 648.5 million tons in 2030.
• Vietnam committed to achieve the net zero emissions by 2050 at COP26.
• The promotion of renewable energy and energy efficiency still faces many barriers as
follows: it is necessary to improve and stabilize mechanisms and policies on investment
encouragement, price support and technology localization; High investment costs; The
capacity and level of domestic production technology is limited, the product quality and
lifetime are low, and the core equipment of the system has not yet been produced, etc.

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 BASIS FOR EOR21

Energy Partnership Program with Ministry of Industry and Trade:

Enhancing capacity on long-term energy planning through
cooperation between the two Governments

DATA ADVANCED IN-DEPTH

IMPROVEMENT MODELING ANALYSIS

Technology
Balmorel power
Catalogue system model EOR 2019

Fuel price
Energy sector
forecasting overview model Support for
TIMES PDP 8
Input
database New modelling
server
EOR 2021
Energy
Power grid
demand
model
forecasting
PSS/E

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ENERGY OUTLOOK REPORT 2021

❖ The new contents of EOR21 compared to EOR19 are:

1. The scenario is consistent with the net zero emissions target by
2050.
2. In-depth study on the impact of energy transition on emissions
and pollution reduction in the transport sector.
3. Update and supplemented analysis of air pollution costs: including
air pollution cost by sector and air pollution cost optimization
scenario.
4. Update of power generation technology and related parameters.

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 RELEVANT STAKEHOLDERS

Local
Implementing agencies:
consultant:
Electricity and Renewable Energy
Institute of Energy
Authority (EREA)
(IE)

International Danish Energy Agency (DEA)

consultant:
EA Energy Analyses
Embassy of Denmark in Hanoi
Energy modelling lab
E4SMA

Vietnam Project Office

Power system modelling
experts of: Consultation of:
IE, NLDC, HUST, EPU and
All energy planning
others
stakeholders
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 EOR21 REPORT FORMULATION PROCESS

June 2021:
Workshop on key
findings and
October 2020: preliminary
Kick-off workshop recommendations

March 2021: June 2022:

Workshop on Launch of
methodology and EOR21
initial results

Balmorel data report

TIMES data report
Technical report EOR
Technology Catalogue
Fuel price projection report
• Input data for modelling • Analysis viewpoints • Policy viewpoints
• Finalization of draft reports • Finalization of the draft • Based on Technical
• Development of data and report report
documents for modelling • Based on massive amounts
of data and modelling work

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 SCENARIOS AND TOPICS IN THE EOR 2021

All five main scenarios are calculated based on a combination of three closely linked energy
models: TIMES, Balmorel, and PSS/E.
Comply with Resolution 55/NQ-TW on renewable energy and CO2 emission
Baseline (BSL) reduction in the energy sector. Committed power capacity according to the data
of the draft PDP8 until 2026, no new coal-fired power plants after 2035

The share of RE in the total electricity production of the system is high (38% in
Green power (GP) 2030 and 75% in 2050). Share of RE and CO2 emission reduction in the energy
sector are as in the Baseline Scenario

Green transport High share of electrification in the transport sector combined with a higher share
(GT) of RE in the power sector and modal shift to public transport

Include the cost of air pollution (NOx, SO2, PM2.5 ) in the planning calculation for
Air pollution (AP) the energy sector. Policy constraints are as in the Baseline Scenario

Net zero emissions The NZ scenario assumes with 66% confidence that Vietnam energy system
development will be constrained by a carbon budget corresponding to the 2°C
by 2050 (NZ) global temperature increase set forth in the Paris Agreement

The report is built around seven main topics, reflecting the key challenges facing the future
green transition of Vietnam energy system.
Power Power Transport
Energy system system sector Energy Air
The path to net pollutio
zero emissions security development balanci energy demand
investment ng transition n

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THANK YOU

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