Quarterly Data for Cars Sales

aka Yt baseline Yt/CMA

t Year Quarter Sales (1000s) MA (4) CMA (4) St, It St

1 Year 1 1 4.8 0.93
2 2 4.1 0.84
3 3 6.0 5.4 5.5 1.10 1.09
4 4 6.5 5.6 5.7 1.13 1.15
5 Year 2 1 5.8 5.9 6.0 0.97 0.93
6 2 5.2 6.1 6.2 0.84 0.84
7 3 6.8 6.3 6.3 1.08 1.09
8 4 7.4 6.4 6.4 1.16 1.15
9 Year 3 1 6.0 6.5 6.5 0.92 0.93
10 2 5.6 6.6 6.7 0.84 0.84
11 3 7.5 6.7 6.8 1.11 1.09
12 4 7.8 6.8 6.8 1.14 1.15
13 Year 4 1 6.3 6.9 6.9 0.91 0.93
14 2 5.9 7.0 7.1 0.83 0.84
15 3 8.0 7.2 1.09
16 4 8.4 1.15
17 Year 5 1 0.93
18 2 0.84
19 3 1.09
20 4 1.15

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistic
Multiple R 0.959579
R Square 0.920791
Adjusted 0.915133
Standard 0.212671
Observatio 16

ANOVA
df SS MS F gnificance F
Regression 1 7.36093258 7.361 162.748 4.20E-09
Residual 14 0.633206832 0.045
Total 15 7.994139412

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept 5.09961 0.111525743 45.73 1.20E-16 4.86041 5.33881
t 0.147139 0.011533718 12.76 4.20E-09 0.1224 0.17188
Yt/St
Deseasonalize Tt Forecast
Time series plot of car Sales
5.15 5.25 4.89
4.89 5.39 4.52 10.0
9.0
5.49 5.54 6.05
8.0
5.66 5.69 6.53
7.0
6.22 5.84 5.44 6.0
6.21 5.98 5.01 5.0
4.0
6.23 6.13 6.69
3.0
6.44 6.28 7.21 2.0
6.44 6.42 5.99 1.0
0.0
6.68 6.57 5.50 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
6.87 6.72 7.34
6.79 6.87 7.88 Sales (1000s) CMA (4) Forecast

6.76 7.01 6.54

7.04 7.16 6.00 Quarter
7.33 7.31 7.98 1
7.31 7.45 8.56 2
7.60 7.09 3
7.75 6.49 4
7.90 8.62
8.04 9.24

Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

4.86041166 5.33881
0.122401352 0.17188
ar Sales

4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
Year 4 Year 5

) Forecast

St
0.93
0.84
1.09
1.15
Sayuri Martinez Dominguez