Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Table of Contents
TASK 1. FINANCIAL STATEMENT PROJECTION (2022-2026).........................................................................2
A. FOUNDATION.....................................................................................................................................................2
INCOME STATEMENT.......................................................................................................................................2
BALANCE SHEET:..............................................................................................................................................4
CASH FLOW STATEMENT:...............................................................................................................................5
B. FILL UP THE MISSING VALUE................................................................................................................................8
BALANCE SHEET FILL UP:..............................................................................................................................8
INCOME STATEMENT FILL-UP:......................................................................................................................9
A. SIMPLE WACC.....................................................................................................................................................10
B. MODIFIED WACC CALCULATION ........................................................................................................................15
REFERENCE..............................................................................................................................................................25
APPENDIX..................................................................................................................................................................31
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
COGS (% of 61.72 54.82
65.51% 63.11% 56.71% 53.57% 55.66% 57.74% 57.29% 57.23%
Revenue) % %
Gross Margin (% of 38.28 45.18
34.49% 36.89% 43.29% 46.43% 44.34% 42.26% 42.71% 42.77%
Revenue) % %
SG&A (% of 17.70 18.39
18.32% 18.99% 13.22% 13.12% 18.39% 18.39% 18.39% 18.39%
Revenue) % %
Effective Tax Rate 15.66 16.76
-31.55% 3.59% 16.41% 16.76% 16.76% 16.76% 16.76% 16.76%
% %
Table 2: Key margin & Ratio
COSG: has a historical positive-linear relationship with Revenue (OLS method):
SG&A contains of SG&A and Advertising Expenses, and Unusual Expenses which shall
have average ratio keep constant.
R&D is increasing as Netflix being a technology-service providers.
BALANCE SHEET:
Working capital
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
AR day =
135 119 18 20 21 21 21 21 21 21
AR/Revenue *365
Prepaid Expenses
1.45% 1.43% 2.04% 1.64% 1.64% 1.64% 1.64% 1.64%
(% of COGS)
AP day =
141 121 92 74 63 63 63 63 63 63
AP/Revenue*365
Accrued Expenses 13.25 15.32 17.39 19.46
4.11% 4.79% 6.78% 7.77% 9.11% 11.18%
(% of COGS) % % % %
Table 3: Working Capital Assumptions
AR and AP, the average day is utilized to forecast, by multiplying back for the future
value
Prepaid Expenses is kept as an average constant rate
Accrued Expenses with an upward trend:
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Leftovers
(% of Total 34.68 53.55 50.46 3.41 37.63 35.95 35.95 35.95 35.95
D&A) % % % % % % % % % 35.95%
Table 6: Leftovers forecasted rate
Leftover rate is kept constant as an average rate
Non-cash item is calculated as the total outflow of D&A and Leftovers.
d. Changes in Working Capital
Based on the changes each year from the Balance Sheet
2. Investing Activities
a. Capital Expenditure of Netflix only accounts for Fixed Assets Purchase
Fixed assets purchase, with its increasing spending (negative CF) would be deducted
each year by historical fluctuations.
3. Financing Activities
a. Financing Cash Flow Item: only accounts for Other Financing Cashflow
This is kept as an average of historical value for 5 years
b. Issuance (Retirement) of Stock
3. Equity
a. Common Stock:
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Debt
Interest -4.97% -4.98% -4.94% -4.83% -4.93% -4.93% -4.93% -4.93% -4.93%
Rate
Cash
interest 0.61% 1.30% 2.06% 0.63% 0.11% 0.94% 0.94% 0.94% 0.94% 0.94%
Rate
Table 10: Debt/Cash Interest Rate
These Interest Rate are kept constant as average of historical rate
Interest Expenses/Income then be calculated back with the reverse of the above
formulas
2. Cost of debt
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Interest Expense (IE) 749.029 774.140 860.217 868.719 840.601
Total Liabilities (D) 27,752 29,167 30,687 29,676 30,820
Cost of Debt (IE/D) 2.70% 2.65% 2.80% 2.93% 2.73%
Average Cost of Debt ( 2.76%
Table 12: Average Cost of Debt of Netflix
3. Cost of Equity
a. Market Rate of Return and Risk-Free Rate
Government bond yields can be considered as risk-free rate of return due to it low default risk
from being backed by the government (Investopedia 2021). Therefore, we will be using the 10-
Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate. Also, Netflix Inc’s historical stock price return will
be used to calculate the market rate of return, as it is a listed public company in the stock
market.
10
The Covid-19 outbreak had sent the US into a recession (Figure 2). The bond market faced a
massive sell-off when the pandemic hit in March 2020, partially because of mutual funds
pressure (Johannes & Victoria 2021). It caused the market yield of U.S. Treasury Securities
(Figure 1) to massively decrease, which affect the accuracy of the average risk-free rate.
11
Figure 2. Netflix Inc from the period May 2021 – May 2022
(Reproduced from Yahoo Finance 2022)
Moreover, Netflix Inc stock index plummeted in 2022 (Figure 2) after growing throughout the
pandemic period (Samira et al. 2020; Anja et al. 2020), which can affect the accuracy of the
market rate of return. Speculation was made like pandemic restrictions ease, increasing
competition, but the uncertainty remained due to these events being too recent.
Additionally, Inflation is another concern, as higher inflation rate will push investors to demand a
higher yield rate to compensate for the higher risk (Geert & Eric 2008). In turn, it erodes the
bond's future cash flows and damages the bond/stock prices (Margaret & Amos 2016). The US
Federal Reserve set an annual inflation target of 2% (The Fed 2020). But in 2021, it is reported
to have risen to 4.5%, therefore, an outlier that can affect the result accuracy.
12
b. Beta
According to Babcock (1972), Beta is a measurement of securities volatility related to the market
rate of return. Since Netflix is one of the major companies in streaming service industry, we will
be using the industry beta value.
Beta (5Y monthly) = 0.97 (Yahoo Finance 2022)
13
4. Corporate Tax (
The Corporate Tax of Netflix is 21% (TPC 2022)
14
CAPM is mostly based on historical data, raising concerns about its suitability for long-term
investment (Tao et al. 2021).
Over time, beta tends to regress toward 1.0. (Pinto, Robinson & Stowe 2019). Rather than the
raw beta, beta reflects the average systematic risk, "Beta smoothing" correction is used (Boyle,
Guthrie & Murray 2021). A beta of 0.98 will indicate the movement of systematic risk in the
future.
Annema and Goedhart (2003) presented a beta that eliminates the influence of the high-tech
bubble distortion in the market. Telecommunications, media, and technology sectors dominated
the market, resulting in biased beta for sectors. Although the phenomenon is not very vivid, the
corporation should anticipate a reduced beta because Indonesia is a significant target market for
investments in telecommunications, media, and technology (Lee & Wei 2021).
15
Discounted cash
1 2 3 4 5 5
flow
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Terminal value
Cash Flow 5,152 3,976 1,280 -2,598 -6,606 -355,892
Discount factor 1.03 1.05 1.08 1.11 1.14 1.14
PV of Future Cash
5,018 3,772 1,183 -2,338 -5,790 -311,945
Flow
WACC 2.67%
Perpetual Growth 0.80%
Value as of
December 31st, -310,101
2022
Table 17: Netflix’s Discounted Cash Flow
The value of Netflix (December 2022) is $-310,101million. Thus, we could conclude that this is
the worst case of Netflix, of not being able to generate any profit in the upcoming years, in which
discourages investors.
16
Disney
Netflix
Warner Bros
Figure 4: Normal distribution of daily rate of returns of Disney, Netflix, and Warner Bros.
(Reproduced from Investing.com 2022)
17
The Beta coefficients of Netflix, Disney and Warner Bros being 0.97, 0.98 and 0.88, respectively
(Finbox 2022) indicates that they are all less volatile than the general market because the Beta is
less than 1 (Ayub et al. 2022). In general, the risk level of Netflix stock is greater than that of its
peers regarding the same industry, but they are still relatively safe compared to the market.
The Security Market Line (SML) is a tool for calculating the risk-return connection for
individual stocks, with (SML), risk is only systematic risk (β) (Corelli et al. 2021). With a risk-
free rate of 2.31%, market return of 3.3%, E(RNetflix) is 3.27%.
With the current price (P0) is $186.51, expected price (P1) in the end of year is $331, dividend
forecast 2022 (d1) is also $0 as previous years (CoinpriceForecast 2022). The expected rate of
return on equity has been calculated to be equal to
The required rate of return E(RNetflix) = 3.27% is less than the actual/forecasted rate of return
r(Netflix) = 76.93%, the equity holder will buy the stock, causing the price to rise, besides, it is clear
from the above equation that an increase in will cause the actual/forecasted rate of return to fall
until it equals the required rate of return (Donelson & Hopkins 2016).
18
19
20
potential film studios that have massive fans and subscribers such as Sony pictures which have
most iconic and favorite characters such as Spider-man, Lionsgate with popular film John Wick
and Discovery with a great film technique that Netflix can utilize (The Entertainment Strategy
Guy, 2021). What is more, by using the M&A campaign not only increase revenue or expanding
market but also reduce labor cost, especially indirect employment and raise the level of
technology that firms can leverage each other's technology or techniques to create a competitive
advantage (Adam, 2021).
21
$16.94 billion to $54.58 billion, in which represents a dynamic, liquid market (Nicenko 2022).
Netflix could release its NFT in the form of character avatar, iconic film moments which are
exclusively designed for each NFT (Spangler 2021). Taking Disney as referenced, it boosted the
SVOD sales through coupons provided for NFT purchase: 3-12 months credit for DisneyPlus,
Netflix could provide the same programs for boosting its sales (ibid.). However, while NFT has
cerfiticates and contracts between suppliers and customers, it has not earned a verification
(Nahar 2021). This is quite ambiguous for long-term development, yet Netflix should consider
this as a short-term revenue stream, with low set-up cost but could help catching up with the
competitors as well as the on-trend demands, together with maintaining its sustainable
development in SVOD and M&A strategies (ibid.)
22
Enterprise value vs. Equity value, where under Commercial sense theory, we as an investor of a
corporation must assume that we will also pay the enterprise value when we pay the equity value
to obtain a share of a company.
There are two closing mechanisms: Lock Boxes and Completion Account.
A locked box instrument, according to Lewis Silkin, is an elective evaluation mechanism for the end
accounts. The "locked box" system's primary purpose is to provide guarantee on the money thought at the
location where the SPA (Sale and Purchase Agreement) is agreed upon. With a Locked Box system, the
most recent value esteem adjustments are applied to an asset report prepared at a date prior to completion,
which is known as the 'locked box monetary record.' Locked boxes are very common in Europe. This
might be because locked box components lend themselves well to multibidder deal processes: they avoid
time spent post-exchange on completion systems and provide certainty for the two parties on the final
value esteem at consummation (Figure 8).
Figu
re 8: Mechanism of Locked Box
According to Dcslegal, completion accounts are simply a collection of documents generated with the
purpose of the deal/procurement and then used as a rationale for adjusting the pricing. The difference will
be noticed in how specific figures in the final accounts are compared to the same objective numbers that
were agreed upon prior to fulfillment. The "underlying" acquiring cost in a Completion Accounts
circumstance is specified in the agreed-upon Share Purchase Arrangement (or SPA). In any event, the
"last" purchase cost is only determined based on the true monetary record of the goal element as of the
transaction's completion date.The Completion Accounts must at the very least disclose the net resources
of the acquired business as of the completion date. They typically include a closing balance sheet and a
23
profit and loss account that demonstrates the outcomes for the period beginning with the most recent
arrangement of verifiable monetary records and ending on the date of fruition (Figure 9).
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