How Long Could it Take for the World to be Unlivable

for Humans if the Earth Continues to Warm?

By Anna Golobin

You’ve probably heard about climate change. And if you know about that,
maybe you even know about the Doomsday Vault- a vault in Norway that is
meant to ensure all of our agriculture is kept safe, no matter the catastrophe.
But how long do we have until global warming forces us to use that vault?

Well, most scientists say that we only have 50 years before facing the
consequences of our actions. Today, most people live in climate niches, which
are the most hospitable part of the planet, and have annual average
temperatures of about 52-59°F (11-15°C). But by 2070, the mean average
temperature will rise by 13.5°F (7.5°C), and the global temperature will rise by
5.4°F (3°C). This rise in temperature could easily result in an increase of land
that’s too hot to live on- the increase that could be as great as from 0.8% in
2020 to 19% in 2070.

According to Tim Lenton, a climate specialist at the University of Exeter “...each

degree warming above present levels corresponds to roughly one billion people
falling outside of the climate niche.” Simply put, for every 1° Celsius increase in
global temperatures, 1 billion people experience climate conditions that are too
hot, too dry, or otherwise extreme for their health.

Even though all this already looks like disaster, rising temperatures are only the
start. Or rather, the end, as many of the results of global warming are going to
happen sooner- if not now.

Greenhouse Gasses in the Atmosphere

Earth’s been warming up twice as fast as previously thought since 1998.
Whether it’s glaciers, permafrost, or
even just snow, lots of ice has been
melting because of this temperature
rise. And the problem with that is that
ice contains lots of gasses. In fact,
arctic permafrost contains 1.8 trillion
tons of carbon, twice the amount in the
atmosphere, which can be seriously
damaging when released.

With all these gasses, it’s only a matter

of time before disaster. Most scientists
believe that places that suffered the
most from global warming, like
Bangladesh and Miami, are too far gone to have any hope of returning them
back to normal. In addition, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) predicts that if we keep doing what we’re doing, then we’ll increase the
global temperature by about 4 degrees, although some predictions expect as
much as an 8 degree increase. According to Peter Brannen, the last time the
planet’s temperature was increased by 8 degrees, the oceans were hundreds of
feet higher. This is really bad news, as at least 600 million people live within 10
meters of the coast.

Of the 5 previous extinctions, 4 of them were caused by greenhouse gasses. The

most famous one was 252 million years ago, when the planet warmed 5°C, which
led to the rapid release of methane trapped in the Arctic ice. Methane is 34
times more powerful at trapping heat compared to CO2, and this extinction led
to the death of 97% of all life. Today, we’re adding carbon to the sky at least
ten times faster.
Say Bye to Food
When the planet warms by 1 degree, crops produce 10% less. This means if the
planet’s temperature increases by 5°C, crop failure will be at least 50%. While
some people might say we can just plant crops further north when it gets too
hot, we’ll eventually run out of enough space to feed everyone. Also, soil quality
is much worse in northern countries.

Another problem with climate warming is the more frequent and severe
droughts. Many parts of the world are turning into deserts, and by 2080, many
parts of the world will experience droughts worse than any droughts from the
previous thousand years. For example, in 2005-2010, the Amazon went through
two “hundred year droughts.”

Frozen Horrors
Ice holds the history of the world- along with any organisms that can be revived
when the ice melts. Scientists found many prehistoric plagues tapped in the ice-
including the Spanish Flu of 1918, which killed 10 million, about 5% of the world’s
population, and 6 times as many that died in the war. Remnants of the bubonic
plague and smallpox have also been found in Siberian ice. If these disastrous
diseases get unleashed, who knows how many people would get infected.

When we Can’t Breathe Air

CO2 air levels have increased to 400 parts per
million (ppm),and are expected to increase to 1,000
ppm by 2100. That means that in about 70 years,
humans will see 21% worse. This vision loss is due to
something called smog. Smog is the addition of
microparticles in the air, which make it look dusty
or murky. Today, more than 10,000 people die from
smog inhalation. By 2050, America will likely have
a 70% increase in smog levels, and by 2090, about
2 million people will be breathing air that’s above
“safe” levels.

Another source of smog that’s becoming

increasingly common is wildfires. The US Forest
Service predicts that by 2050, wildfires will be twice
as destructive as they are now, and in some places
they will be 5 times as destructive. The cycle of global warming causing fires
and vice versa is only getting worse.
Another Economic Depression is on the Horizon
Most people believe that the recent rapid economic growth was mainly caused
by the discovery and exploitation of fossil fuels. Historians call this phenomenon
“fossil capitalism”. Once we use up all available fossil fuels, however, the
economy is expected to take a sudden drop, which is predicted to result in a
23% loss in average incomes by the end of the century.

There is also a 51% chance that climate change will lower global GDP (the
standard measure of economic health) by 20% or more. In comparison, the
Great Recession of 2008 lowered global GDP by 6%. Keep in mind, every round
flight from NY to London costs the Arctic 3 square meters of ice.

Way Too Hot for Us

Heat is the main source of weather related deaths in the US, with extreme heat
stress levels doubled within the last 40 years. One way to measure heat is by
heat-bulb temperature. This is the lowest temperature at which something can
cool down through moisture evaporating off it. When relative humidity is high,
the less water can evaporate off an object before it and the surrounding
temperature is the same. Colin Raymond, a NASA scientist, says that the
highest wet-bulb temperature humans can survive for a minimum of 6 hours is
95°F (35°C). So by 2070, 19% of land will have average temperatures of 95°F.

What Does This Mean for People?

Basically, if we don’t change our ways, we’ll be screwed by the end of the
century. But that doesn’t mean we can’t change. The Paris Agreement of 2015
was a good start, but we need to get better. We need to cut out carbon
emissions, find other sources of energy, and we need everyone to participate.
This is a group effort, and there’s no point if only one person or country
contributes. But it is possible. We have to fix our mistakes, otherwise…

We risk being the cause of another mass extinction.

 References
Buis, A. (2022, March 9). Too Hot to Handle: How Climate Change May Make
Some Places Too Hot to Live – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet.
NASA Climate Change. Retrieved November 29, 2023, from
https://climate.nasa.gov/explore/ask-nasa-climate/3151/too-hot-to-handle-h
ow-climate-change-may-make-some-places-too-hot-to-live/
Conners, D. (2020, June 23). Will large parts of Earth be too hot for people in
50 years? | Earth. EarthSky. Retrieved November 29, 2023, from
https://earthsky.org/earth/global-warming-areas-of-earth-too-hot-for-peop
le/
Wallace, D. (2017, July 9). When Will Climate Change Make the Earth Too Hot
For Humans? New York Magazine. Retrieved November 29, 2023, from
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for
-humans.html