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Waterloo-Oxford District Secondary School

MDM4UJ-01
Mathematics Department /53
Mrs. K. van Lierop Unit 4 Test Probability Distributions
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Name: S Date: Wednesday October 25, 2017

FORMULAS

E(X)=x7P(X=x1)+x,P(X=x2)+...+xP(X =x)

P(X = k)
= fl](p)k
(1-
p)fl•k E(x) = np

aCz X n_aCr_x
rca
= E(x) =
P(x) —
71
ncr

Multiple Choice (11 marks)

n.
Identify the letter of the choice that best completes the statement or answers the questio

4 1. Which of the following is an example of a DISCRETE random variable?

a. the number of heads observed for ten coin tosses
b. the mass of an apple randomly chosen from a supermarket bin
c. The depth of a scuba diver during a dive
d. The height of the rebound after a basketball is dropped from various heights

ci What is the expected value E(X) for the sum a single roll of two fair 6-sided dice?
a. 3.5 c. 7
b. 6 d. 1
6
are dealt from a
3. A random variable Xis defined as the number of hearts observed when five cards
regular deck. The probability distribution for this random variable is shown below.
x o i s1
P(X) 0.2215 0.4114 1*0.2743 j 0.0815 0.0107 {
0.0005

Which of the following statements is false?

a. The probability of zero hearts is the same as the probability of 5 hearts.
b. The most likely outcome is I heart.
c. The expected value is 1.25.
d. The probability of not getting 2 hearts is greater than the probability of getting 2
hearts.

4. The following table is a valid probability distribution for a random variable X. What must be the
value for P(2) to complete the table?
X 0 1 2 3
P(A9 0.2 0.2 0.4
a. 0.15 C. 0.25
b. 0.2 d. 0.3

Page 1 of6
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Unit 4 Test — Probability Distributions

5. In the expression [7)0.6)2(0.4)5, which value represents the probability of failure?

a. 0.6 c. (0.4)2
b. 0.4 d. (0.6)

6. In the expression [(0.6)2(0.4)5,which value represents the expected value?

a. 0.6 c. 2.8
b. 0.4 d. 4.2

7 Which expression describes the probability of k “3s” being rolled on 20 successive rolls of a six-
sided die?
a. (2oi(5’2° Ic c. (2oy3(3yo
kJ16j1.,6J tkJ6J6)
b. d.
k)6J6J 3J6)6)

8. In a swim meet, there are 16 competitors, 5 of whom are from the Eastern Swim Club. Which
expression gives the probability that 2 of the S swimmers in the first heat are from the Eastern
Swim Club?
a. 5 4 c. (5”
2)’\16) U61
b. 5C2 x 11C3
d. None of the above

9. If, in a probability distribution, the probability is a percentage, then the distribution:

a. must be binomial
b. must by hypergeometric
c. may be either binomial or hypergeometric
d. may be neither binomial nor hypergeomefric

10. The probabilities on the outcomes for the roll of a fair die is:
a. uniform
b. binomial
c. hypergeometric
d. noneoftheabove

A ii. Which of the foljowing is an exampie of a hypergeomethc?

a. probability of the number of aces in a seven-card hand
b. probability of each sum when two dice are rolled
c. probability of a number being randomly chosen from the numbers I to 10
d. probability of the number of times a 3 occurs when rolling a die six times
 Unit 4 Test — Probabflity Distributions

Short Answer (19 marks)

1) A baseball player has an on base percentage of 0.63. Let getting on base represent a success so that p
= 0.63

a) X represents the number of times he reaches base if he is at bat 4 times in a game. Create a
probability distribution (in chart form) displaying each possible outcome (to 4 decimal places).
(4marks) ,.

/ tvz
(o.”r’ Y (o.37-’ o.oiR
1 qCo

c, (o.&(o.3?Y o. i2-:1,b
o 3zO
2
5 ‘163 (o.b3)5
(cx3d 0.

LI (o39fra} O.i55
2) The following chart represents the probability distribution for the number of women on a civil court
jury selected from a pool of 8 men and 10 women. Graph a probability histogram for the given data
and interpret its meaning. (5 marks)

Number of P(x)
women. x
0 0.00151
1 0.03017
UI
2 0.16968
3 0.36199
4 0.31674 —u
5 0.10860
6 0.01131 -o

Interpretation:
ci
0.

nQ prvh’thJ1 I_ .

5
cjnc(
is 3 tjurn.t_ w-ftkr\
as o(A rncvC -1
‘nc veoi 3 ±L

/Ic,,’ a I/C c
c/ic/f
 Unit 4 Test — Probability Distributions

Problems (23 marks) - To earn full marks on these questions, you must show some related work,
with proper form and concluding statements.

Binomial Distribution
7) In an exam only ten percent chance a student will qualify for a scholarship. If a group of 10 students have
written the exam find the following:
a) The probability exactly 3 people will qualify.[4 marksj 3
3) P(ccc+)
g)(o.o5o.9)
p
= 0.05 -+

r3
77o
WIIJ er -H-s c(Lho)cncki6?
b) The probability that at least two 14
students will qualify. marksl
P(Z )- P(oPCj)
I -
1- o.3qg- O,3&7-P—
-
OI73

Qjp ‘7 a 7 C4flu 4 IaY c%Y*%e,i1S

Hypergeometric Distribution cc- tLi sCu?G I1 (5 &4
8) Suppose a researcher goes to a small college with 200 faculty, 12 bf which have blood type 0-negative.
She obtains a simple random sample of 20 from the faculty. Let the random variable X represent the
number of faculty in the sample of size that have blood type 0-negative.
a) What is the probability that 3 of the faculty have blood type 0-negative? 14 marksj

o (ui U-
2 (Ia

D.o33
b) What is the probability that at least one of the faculty has blood type 0-negative? [4 marksj

PH,/S:
: 7ar/0
12 C i 20 ) 4
CAonu
2w hk/
)Pt_ O-iuJQvt
 Unit 4 Test — Probability Distributions

Uniform Distribution
• 9) A multiple choice trivia quiz has 10 questions, each with four possible answers. If someone simply
guesses at each answer, what is the probability of only one or two correct guesses?(4 marksj

PC cte&4) =
4 er )‘( o.35

O, /fl9+ 62?/5
O ‘-floQL

1(0. ?% cko cO.- br 2

10) One sumner, conservation officials caught and tagged 150 rainbow trout the Saugeen River. Later, 60
rainbow trout were caught and 35 had been tagged. Estimate the size of the rainbow trout population. (3
marks)
aI5O (x’*35

- : appri>’
,+iU 4(
[Y))U /‘ frc-
Bonus
Determine the probability of the following poker hand. A pair of Jacks or better (Two J or Q or K or A). [2J
Tip: Determine how many ways you can get the 4 types of pairs and combine this with choosing 3 other cards
that do not create any pairs)
 Unit 4 Test — Probability Distributions

3) In a game where a player can earn points based a particular outcome has the expected value is -0.5.
Explain what this means.12 marksl

Cr1 ove(a9t c ecri -€77 ti ID /oc

0. 5 points (?r *-fYI

4) Given the following probability distribution, determine the expected value, [2 marksl
X P(x) z9) .4
/ oocyo1 15) + 100 oco(o, Z5)t i000ccv3(O,
1000 0.25 ) oo
L)

100000 0.25
1000000 0.25
10J00000 0.25 -
%5o

5) In a lottery there are 2 000 000 tickets to be sold. The prizes are as follows:
Prize($) Number of Prizes
What should the lottery operators charge per
1000000 1 ticket in order to make a 40% profit?13 marksj
50000 5
1000 10
50 50 (K)
50 d5)t1ccJØ4 ccXS — Chc4rCdC
O.Oj ioooLi)
a c

ëh suicM/d c*i2
(7doic
$‘ )Vf 1,c/cW
6) State which type of probability distribution (uniform, binomial, hypergeometric, none of these)
would model each situation. (3 marks)

a) A veterinarian gives 15 of 150 cattle in a herd an antibiotic. 10 cattle are selected at random to
test for infections to see if the antibiotic was effective.

TI
b) Ten percent of the keyboards a computer company manufactures are defective. The random
variable is the number of defective keyboards in the next shift.

c) ceifldtEimesithmber