Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1 David Hume (1711-1776) developed a model that became known as the gold automatism.
It is based on simplifying assumptions. Only the free circulation of the gold coins is considered and the role of
the banks is neglected. There is also a free trade in goods and no flow of capitals over borders.
When an exporter was paid for his exported goods with gold, he brought it to a mint for minting coins. When
an importer imported goods into his country, he paid for the goods with gold. This was considered as an export of gold.
For country A, which exports more gold for imported goods than it receives for its exported goods it generates
a gold outflow and thus a deficit of balance of payments. Since less gold coins remain in circulation in the country A, a
falling of prices resulted. As an outcome of the price decrease, imported goods became more expensive in the deficit of
payment of country A and their sales declined.
For the other country B, with an inflow of gold, it had the effect of increasing the prices due to an increased
gold in circulation (the gold coin inflow is causing an increase in relative prices). For country B, the goods from the
deficit country A become cheaper, so their consumption could be increased. This resulted in a rise in exports from the
deficit country A and, in turn, imports from B will fall.
This automatic mechanism should lead to a balancing of trade in the medium to long term.
also add not just the free trade of goods (including movement of gold) but also free flow of capitals
over the borders.
The main tool was the discount rate (the rate at which the central bank would lend money to
commercial banks or financial institutions) which would in turn influence market interest rates.
A rise in interest rates would speed up the adjustment process through two channels. First, it would
make borrowing more expensive, reducing investment spending and domestic demand, which in
turn would put downward pressure on domestic prices, enhancing competitiveness and stimulating
exports.
Second, higher interest rates would attract money from abroad, improving the capital account of the
balance of payments. A fall in interest rates would have the opposite effect.
The central bank could also directly affect the amount of money in circulation by buying or selling domestic assets
though this required deep financial markets (this was only done to a significant extent in the UK and, latter, in
Germany).
The use of such methods meant that any correction of an economic imbalance would be accelerated
and normally it would not be necessary to wait for the moment when substantial quantities of gold
have been transported from one country to another.
-The reality is even more complex. The system worked simply because the central banks of the bloc
of gold standard countries agreed that they should be bound by the instructions of a single central
bank-the Central Bank of England, the most influential bank at that time, which was playing by the
''rules of the gold standard''.
When we look at Britain's balance of payments, we see a large deficit on the balance. With such a
deficit, we expect a golden exit and deflationary consequences. However, other aspects play an
important role in this adjustment. Something else is putting pressure on the balance of payments. It
is the fact that there is very significant foreign investment from the British.
The question is how is it possible for Britain to have a trade deficit, and an outflow of gold through
investment abroad?
Flows are coming into Britain and in particular, the stock of foreign investment is providing returns
to Britain that we see in terms of accumulated dividends. We also see that there are exports of
services, particularly finance. This means that not everything is determined by a deficit on the
commodity balance. The situation is not completely unique, but it is rare. Britain was the world's
largest international investor and also the most successful country in terms of exporting its services.
It is the fact that London was the financial centre of the world that made these financial services to
be exported.
It is not surprising that Britain follows the rules of the game because the rules did not weigh as
heavily on Britain as on any other country. It worked smoothly for most (capital) debtor countries
only because Britain and the other creditor states regularly pumped so much capital out and across
their borders. Fortunately for the debtors, most of this capital was supplied in long-term forms
which could not readily be pulled back home in time of trouble, whether real or imagined.
After the First World War, the gold standard was restored in most countries insofar as the Central
banks' gold redemption obligation was reintroduced and correlated with the condition that the
Central banks had to be independent institutions.
By 1919, thanks to wartime lending and a continuing current account surplus, the United States had become
a net creditor in relation to the rest of the world. In the 1920s the surplus remained, and in most years the
American gold stock grew, almost tripling between 1914 and 1930.
Had the United States not exported such large amounts of capital in the 1920s the golden tide would have
flowed even higher. As it was, American gross external assets quadrupled, far outgrowing foreign claims on
the USA. Even though much of the gold was immobilised by American dollars' rules, the American position
was far stronger than the British one (American gold reserves were enormously larger than her external
short-term obligations, while the British situation was exactly the reverse). Fortunately for the world's
confidence in the pound, until 1931 no one knew just how precarious Britain's situation had become.
3. The move away from the gold standard in the interwar period
Initial shape
Unlike the pre-World War I era, the gold standard system was no longer stable during the inter-war
period.
The United States generated large current account surpluses in world trade during the First World
War and the Golden Twenties.
Under the gold standard, current account deficits in many countries, especially Germany, would led
to a steady outflow of gold. For Germany the destabilizing effect of the reparations payments after
the First World War was an added problem. But these current account deficits were offset by
generous lending by the United States (chapter in capital account).
First actions of the US Federal Reserve
-In US The Federal Reserve had become increasingly preoccupied over the course of 1927 by the
Wall Street boom, which they saw as diverting resources from more productive uses. To discourage
stock market speculation, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York raised its discount rate from 3.5
to 5 percent in the first half of 1928.
-In addition, the Fed was concerned by the decline in its gold cover ratio. The late-1920s boom
having augmented stocks of money and credit more dramatically than U.S. gold reserves, the Fed
raised interest rates in what it saw as the responsibility of any central bank.
Its actions were felt both abroad and at home. Higher interest rates kept American capital from
flowing abroad. Tighter money slowed the expansion of the U.S. economy.
Effects abroad
At the turn of the year 1928/1929 the weakness of balance payments of many countries became
apparent. As we saw the US Federal Reserve, in order to curb US overheated economy (the stock
exchange bubble), introduced a policy of high interest rates. That caused a gold inflow from
countries with lower interest rates.
In 1927-28 American capital outflows were of the same order of magnitude as the American current-account surplus.
But these outflows then began to fall, so that in 1930 they financed barely half of that surplus. It used to be thought that
this development had exported the depression from America to Germany, dependent as it was on American capital.
Given the dependence of other countries on capital imports from the United States, the collapse of the recycling process
in 1928 was a difficult blow. The interest-rate increases initiated by the Fed to slow the Wall Street boom and stem the
decline in the gold cover ratio increased the attractiveness of investing in U.S. fixed-interest securities. Higher interest
rates also damaged the creditworthiness of heavily indebted countries suddenly saddled with higher interest charges.
U.S. foreign lending, which had been running at high levels in the first half of 1928, fell to zero in the second half of the
year.
Once capital stopped flowing in, demand in the debtor countries was curtailed. The consequent fall in the relative prices
of the goods they produced was the mechanism by which they boosted their exports and compressed their imports to
bridge the gap created by the evaporation of capital inflows. In other words, the price-specie flow mechanism finally
began to operate.
But with the onset of the Great Depression in 1929, export markets were dealt a further blow, which made the earlier
changes in relative prices wholly inadequate.
Effects in the US
Run for gold and a new raising of interest rates in the US
When the stock market crashed in 1929, the US investors began trading in currencies and
commodities. As the price of gold rose, people exchanged their dollars for gold. The conditions
worsened when banks began failing. People began hoarding gold because they didn't trust financial
institutions.
The Federal Reserve kept raising interest rates, since it was trying to make dollars more valuable
and dissuade people from further depleting the U.S. gold reserves. These higher rates worsened the
Depression by making the cost of doing business even more expensive. Many companies went
bankrupt, creating record levels of unemployment.
The other countries were forced to surpass the US high-yield policy, dramatically reducing bank
lending. At the same time, public spending had to be cut drastically (austerity policy). That caused
worldwide contraction of the money supply and was the impulse that triggered the global economic
crisis.
Bank crisis in the US
Another effect was the severe banking crisis in the early 1930s, which led to credit crunch and mass
bankruptcies. To combat the banking crisis, especially the Bank Runs, banks would have had to be
provided with liquidity. But the gold standard was an insurmountable obstacle to such a policy. The
reason for this obstacle was that the amount of money actually needed in countries with gold
standard currencies was much higher than the ability of central banks to issue gold-backed cash.
Industrial crisis
This fragile financial situation was superimposed on a more fundamental problem: the collapse of industrial production.
The industrial world had seen recessions before, but not like the one which began in 1929. U.S. industrial production
fell by a staggering 48 percent between 1929 and 1932 (German industrial production by 39 percent). Recorded
unemployment peaked at 25 percent of the labor force in the United States; (in Germany unemployment in industry
reached 44 percent).
Conclusion: Impossibility of anti cyclical policies of countries under gold standard
Governments naturally wished to stimulate their moribund economies.
But injecting credit and bringing down interest rates to encourage consumption and investment was
inconsistent with maintenance of the gold standard.
Additional credit meant additional demands for merchandise imports. Lower interest rates
encouraged investment abroad. The reserve losses they produced raised fears of currency
depreciation, prompting capital flight. Governments trying to use policy to halt the downward spiral
of economic activity were confronted by the incompatibility of expansionary initiatives and gold
convertibility.
Unilateral economic policies to combat the economic crisis proved impossible under the gold
standard. The initiatives to increase monetary supply and / or anti-cyclical fiscal policies (reflation)
in the United Kingdom (1930), the United States (1932), Belgium (1934) and France (1934-35)
failed because such measures caused a deficit in current account and thus endangered the gold
standard.
Economic historians agree that the gold standard was the transmission mechanism for spreading the
Great Depression and contributed significantly to the genesis and its length. Over the time, such
mistakes of monetary policy became evident. Gradually, all states suspended the gold standard and
moved to a reflationary policy.
By almost unanimous opinion, there is a clear temporal and contextual connection between the
global shift away from the gold standard and the beginning of the economic recovery.
of the following three policies—free capital flows, a fixed exchange rate, and an independent
monetary policy.
In contrast, Hong Kong essentially fixes the value of its currency to the U.S. Dollar and allows free
capital flows. The trade-off is that Hong Kong sacrifices the ability to use monetary policy to
influence domestic interest rates. Unlike the United States, Hong Kong cannot decrease interest
rates to stimulate a weak economy. If Hong Kong’s interest rates were to diverge from world rates,
capital would flow into or out of the Hong Kong economy as in the U.S. case above. Under a
flexible exchange rate, these flows would cause the exchange value of the Hong Kong dollar to
change relative to that of other currencies. Under a fixed exchange rate, the monetary authority
must offset these capital flows by purchasing domestic or foreign currency in order to keep the
supply and demand for its currency fixed and the exchange rate constant. Hong Kong loses the
ability to have an independent monetary policy if it allows free capital flows and maintains a fixed
exchange rate.
Similar to the case of Hong Kong, until 2005 China tied its exchange rate to the U.S. dollar. China
could conduct an independent monetary policy because it sets restrictions on capital flows. In
China’s case, world and domestic interest rates could differ because controls on the transfer of
funds into and out of the country limited the resulting changes in the money supply and the
corresponding pressures on the exchange rate. As these three examples show, if a country chooses
to allow capital to flow freely, it must also choose between having an independent monetary policy
or a fixed exchange rate.
How does a country decide whether to give up a fixed exchange rate, an independent monetary
policy, or free capital movements? The answer largely depends on global economic trends.
The post-World War II era saw substantial integration of markets and increasing international trade.
Countries such as the United States wanted to facilitate this increase in trade by eliminating the risk
of exchange rate fluctuations. In 1944, representatives from major industrial countries designed and
implemented a plan that encouraged fixed exchange rates for the dollar and other currencies while
maintaining independent monetary policies.
Just as with the systems described above, something had to be given up—the free movement of
capital flows.
Participating countries imposed ceilings on the interest rates that banks could offer depositors and
restrictions on the types of assets that banks could invest in. Governments intervened in financial
markets to direct capital toward strategic domestic sectors. Although none of these controls alone
prevented international capital flows, in combination they allowed governments to reduce the
amount of international capital transactions. EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEM
Few nations have allowed their currencies’ exchange values to be determined solely by the forces of
supply and demand in a free market. Until the industrialized nations adopted managed floating
exchange rates in the 1970s, the practice generally was to maintain a pattern of fixed exchange
rates among national currencies. Changes in national exchange rates presumably were initiated by
domestic monetary authorities when long-term market forces warranted it.
III. Examining Bretton Woods (1944-1973) and post Bretton Woods systems
After the Second World War, the Bretton Woods system was created as an international monetary
system with an exchange rate bandwidth, which was determined by the partially gold-backed US
dollar as an anchor currency. The architects of the Bretton Woods system had sought to address
and combine the benefits of the gold standard, as a fixed exchange rate regime (exchange rate
stability + avoiding competitive depreciation) with the benefits of a flexible exchange rate regime
(in particular, the ability to respond unilaterally to macroeconomic shocks with appropriate
monetary policy).
But the Bretton Woods system suffered from the design flaw known as the Triffin dilemma. The
growing world trade has led to an increasing demand for dollar currency reserves. These currency
reserves could only be generated by constant current account surpluses against the USA.
The US, as a reserve currency country, was not subject to the current account adjustment constraints
of other countries, because the debt was financed in foreign currency flowing from abroad, as long
as foreign countries had an interest in investing in currency reserves.
However, constant US current account deficits eventually eroded confidence in the dollar. This system ended in 1973.
On August 15, 1971, US President Richard Nixon raised the link of the dollar to gold ( Nixon shock ). In 1973, the
exchange rates were abandoned.
In 1976, the International Monetary Fund recommended to its members the abandoning of the gold bond for their
currencies. Many states still maintain gold reserves, but a certain gold value of any currency is no longer guaranteed.
Conclusion
The obvious conclusion is that greater exchange rate flexibility is an inevitable consequence of rising international
capital mobility. It is important, therefore, to recollect the period prior to 1913 when high international capital mobility
did not preclude the maintenance of stable rates. Before World War I there was no question of the priority attached to
the gold standard peg. There was only limited awareness that central bank policy might be directed at targets such as
unemployment. And any such awareness had little impact on policy, given the weakness of trade unions, and the
absence of parliamentary labor parties.
There being no question of the willingness and ability of governments to defend the currency peg, capital flowed in
stabilizing directions in response to shocks. Workers and firms allowed wages to adjust because they knew that there
was little prospect of an exchange rate change to erase the consequences of disequilibrium costs. Together these factors
operated as a virtuous circle that lent credibility to the commitment to pegged rates.
v
t 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006
e
61.74 62.72 65.36 65.73 65.14 61.24 61.47 62.59 62.14 62.05 63.77 63.87 65.04
US dollar
% % % % % % % % % % % % %
Euro (until 20.67 20.16 19.13 19.14 21.20 24.20 24.05 24.40 25.71 27.66 26.21 26.14 24.99
1999 - ECU) % % % % % % % % % % % % %
Deutsche
mark
Japanese 5.20 4.89 3.95 3.75 3.54 3.82 4.09 3.61 3.66 2.90 3.47 3.18 3.46
yen % % % % % % % % % % % % %
Pound 4.42 4.54 4.34 4.71 3.70 3.98 4.04 3.83 3.94 4.25 4.22 4.82 4.52
sterling % % % % % % % % % % % % %
French
franc
Chinese 1.89 1.23 1.07
renminbi % % %
Canadian 1.84 2.02 1.94 1.77 1.75 1.83 1.42
dollar % % % % % % %
Australian 1.62 1.80 1.69 1.77 1.59 1.82 1.46
dollar % % % % % % %
Swiss 0.14 0.18 0.16 0.27 0.24 0.27 0.21 0.08 0.13 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.17
franc % % % % % % % % % % % % %
Dutch
guilder
Other 2.48 2.50 2.37 2.86 2.83 2.84 3.26 5.49 4.43 3.04 2.20 1.83 1.81
currencies % % % % % % % % % % % % %
Source: World Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves International Monetary