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Topic 11 Copia Finance
Topic 11 Copia Finance
Topic 11
This is a situation when an investor places his capital and waits for a
financial return.
In the case of listed shares, taking into consideration that the markets
are not perfect, there are differences between the share value and its
market price that lead to the different valuation methods.
The value of any stock is the present value of its future cash flows that
is represented by the DCF formula (discounted cash flows formula).
Dividends represent the future cash flows of the firm.
D1 + P1
P0 =
(1 + re)
Where:
Assuming that the market is efficient the market price per share at the end
of the year 1 can be determined as follows:
D2 + P2
P1 =
2
(1 + re)
Where:
D1 D2 + P2
P0 = +
( 1 + re) ( 1 + re)2
Where:
Current forecasts for XZ Company are to pay dividends of $3; $3.24 and
$3.50 over the next three years respectively. At the end of three years you
anticipate selling your stock at a market price of $94.48. What is the
estimated price of the stock given a 12% expected return?
PV = 75.00 $
11.1. VALUING EQUITY BASING ON EXPECTED DIVIDENDS U
B
The theoretical and intrinsic value of a share
D1 D2 D3 Dj
P0
( 1 + re) ( 1 + re)2 ( 1 + re)3 j=1 ( 1 + re)j
The present value of a stock is just the sum of the present values of the
expected dividends streams.
11.1. VALUING EQUITY BASING ON EXPECTED DIVIDENDS U
B
The theoretical and intrinsic value of a share
D1
P0 =
re - g
11.1. VALUING EQUITY BASING ON EXPECTED DIVIDENDS U
B
The theoretical and intrinsic value of a share
The Gordon and Shapiro model can be applied at any period of time:
Dn+1 Dn
Pn = = (1 + g)
re - g re - g
The annual average growth rate g can be determined multiplying the rate of
retained benefits b (Plowback ratio) by return on share ROE Return on
Equity = EPS/ book equity per share.
g = b x ROE
11.1. VALUING EQUITY BASING ON EXPECTED DIVIDENDS U
B
The theoretical and intrinsic value of a share
A company s plowback ratio (the opposite of the dividend payout ratio) is calculated as
follows:
Plowback ratio = 1 (Annual Dividend Per Share / Earnings Per Share)
Example: Let s assume Company XX reported earnings per share of $5 last year and paid
$1 in dividends. Using the formula above, Company XX s dividend payout ratio is:
$1 / $5 = 20%
Company XX distributed 20% of its income in dividends and reinvested the rest back into
the company. That means that the company plowed the remaining 80% back into the
company. Using the formula and the information above, we can show it this way:
Plowback ratio = 1 ($1/$5) = 1 0,20 = 0,80 or 80%
Plowback ratios indicate how much profit is being reinvested in the company rather than
paid out to investors. Some investors prefer the cash distributions associated with low
plowback-ratio companies, while other investors prefer the capital gains expected from a
company s reinvestment of earnings. More mature companies generally have a lower
plowback ratio than fast-growing companies, which are more focused on reinvesting cash in
order to grow the business. Thus, the ratio is one way to identify growth companies.
11.1. VALUING EQUITY BASING ON EXPECTED DIVIDENDS U
B
Example 1: Determining g
The expected ROE of a company is equal to 20% and the plow-back ratio is
equal to 56.8 %. What is the corresponding rate of the dividends growth g?
Solution:
The expected ROE of a company is equal to 20% and the plow-back ratio is
equal to 55 %. What is the corresponding rate of the dividends growth g?
Solution:
D1
From (11.6) P0 = +g
re - g
* g = the constant growth rate of the dividends
Solution:
D1 0.5
(11.6) P0 = = = 16.67 euros
re - g 0.14 0.11
11.1. VALUING EQUITY BASING ON EXPECTED DIVIDENDS U
B
Example: Determining return on equity
If the market price per share were also 16,67 euros what would be the
IRR divided into the expected dividend yield and capital earnings yield
(return on capital earnings).
Solution:
D1 0.5
(11.10) re = +g= + 0.11 = 0.03 + 0.11 = 0.14
P 16.67
Expected dividend yield = 3%
Capital gains yield (return on capital gains) = 11%
11.1. VALUING EQUITY BASING ON EXPECTED DIVIDENDS U
B
Example: Determining g
If the market price per share were 24.5 euros, what would be the the
growth rate g?
Solution:
0.5
24.5 =
(0.14 g)
0.14 - g = 0.5/24.5
To resume, the Model of Gordon and Shapiro, for the case of a dividend that
grows at a constant and cumulative annual rate g, involves the following:
4) Capital gains yield (return on capital gains) should be constant and equal to g.
5) The expected return for an investor, re, will be equal to the sum of the expected
dividend yield and the capital earnings yield.
11.2. VALUATION USING MULTIPLES OR RELATIVE EVALUATION U
B
Definition:
I II III IV V
The analysis The analysis Calculation and Applying the Defining the
of a target and selection selection of results to a range of
company of comparable market based target acceptable
companies, multiples company values for a
peer group target firm
11.2. VALUATION USING MULTIPLES OR RELATIVE EVALUATION U
Once we know the main data about a company such as its activity, origin,
history, capital structure, size, etc., it is necessary to deepen the study of the
following factors (fundamentals):
The key issue of this valuation method is to select companies which provide a
reliable basis for the comparison.
To sum up, analysts try to find a firm that looks like a target firm in
terms of growth, risk characteristics and key economic dimensions.
11.2. VALUATION USING MULTIPLES OR RELATIVE EVALUATION U
III. Choosing and calculating multiplies
B
The multiples express the relationship between the market price (or
analyst s valuation), and some financial indicators( even some
pyshical indicators).
Key data - including industry metrics and multiples - is readily available from investor
services like Multex, Reuters and Bloomberg for a small fee.
The computation of the value of the company is obtained using the following
simple relation:
From where:
EV (comparable)
EV (company) = x X (company)
X (comparable)
Multiple
11.2. VALUATION USING MULTIPLES OR RELATIVE EVALUATION U
Valuing the company s shares using multiple PER
B
P
PER earnings =
EPS
P
PDR =
D
Value of a share
Multiple
11.2. VALUATION USING MULTIPLES OR RELATIVE EVALUATION U
Valuing the company s shares basing on multiple PCFR
B
Where: PCFR = Price to Cash Flow Ratio (PCFR)
P = Current stock price of a share
CF = Cash flow per share
N = Nº of outstanding shares
P
PCFR =
CF
Value of a share
Value of a share
P
PSR =
SPS
Value of a share
P *N
EBITDAR =
EBITDA
It is easy to understand.
It is practical.
Normally, it is used for the initial assessments, than the DCF method
is applied (Topic 12).
In terms of ratios/multiples, Price-to-Book ratio and Price-to Earnings ratio are most
commonly used.
In some case, it is appropriate to use other multiples, for instance, Market Value of
Equity /Total Assets, or Market Value of Equity /Sales.
Another possibility for the companies is to use instead of market equity values in
the nominator so called Enterprise Value (market value of equity + net debt).
11.2. VALUATION BY MULTIPLES - EXAMPLE U
B
Determining the value of company Virus Control using PER multiple:
The value of the target company after the forecasted period can be calculated by:
Average corrected PER* net earnings of Virus Control at the end of the forecasted
period.
At the end of the year Virus Control is going to get net earnings of about 2,2
million. They use the following calculation to determine their future value of
equity:
General references
Topic 11
Problems Set
EXERCISE 1 U
B
Required: Determine the value of Gospel Company using the multiple method
and expected dividends. The expected return on equity (re) is equal
to 3 % and the average growth rate for the dividends (g) is 0,2%
EXERCISE 1 U
Solution 1/2:
B
D 30.000
VALUE based on expected dividend without growth = = = 1.000.000
re 0,03
D 30.000
VALUE based on expected dividend = = = 1.071.429
with an annual average growth rate re - g 0,03-0,002
Exercise 2
Characteristics:
It has 10 supermarkets, mainly in Catalonia, two of which are owned by it.
The rest are leased.
Its Debt ratio in recent years is 60%.
Its growth rate in recent years is 40%.
In view of the possible entry of a foreign partner that wishes to take over
40% of the company, a valuation of the company based on the multiples
approach has been requested.
Exercise 2
A search for comparable companies that have been transferred in the last year was
performed, using the following selection criteria:
Similar growth
That have made few property investments
That operate in Spain
With a similar centre size
Similar Debt ratio.
five years:
Exercise 2
* The share prices (P) correspond to the whole company, i.e., without deducting
debts.
Exercise 2
Concept
Sales 172.886
EBITDA 10.800
Amortisations 2.225
Taxes 3.441
Debt 110.400
Calculate the value of the PROXIM company using the following multiple approaches
of comparable companies,
PSR = Share price/Sales
EBITDAR = Share price/EBITDA
EBITR= Share price/EBIT (or alternatively NOPAT Net Operating Profit
After Tax)
Exercise 2
Solution 1/4
Concept
COMPANY A COMPANY B COMPANY C COMPANY D Average PROXIM
(3)
Amortisations 5.400 3.200 3.600 5.200
(4) Taxes 5.000 6.200 5.670 0.800
(7) = EBIT
(8) = NOPAT
Exercise 2
Solution 2/4:
Concept
COMPANY A COMPANY B COMPANY C COMPANY D Average PROXIM
(6) Value of the debt 150.400 120.800 140.300 95.600 126.775 110.400
(7) = (2) - (3) EBIT 12.200 12.800 15.300 4.600 11.225 8.575
Solution 3/4:
Solution 4/4:
Comparable Company Company Debt Net
Multiple multiples variable Value Equity