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Any Logic-Based Analysis of Maintenance Efficiency of Aging Railway

Telecommunication Equipment

Conference Paper · October 2018

DOI: 10.1109/APEIE.2018.8545954

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 XIV Международная научно-техническая конференция АПЭП – 2018
AnyLogic-based Analysis of Maintenance Efficiency
of Aging Railway Telecommunication Equipment
Alexander A. Lyubchenko1, Evgeniy Y. Kopytov2, Vasilii A. Maystrenko2, Member, IEEE,
Alexander A. Bogdanov3
1
University of Burgos, Burgos, Spain
2
Omsk State Technical University, Omsk, Russia
3
Omsk State Transport University, Omsk, Russia
Abstract – The paper is devoted to the efficiency analysis of
preventive maintenance in relation to the telecommunication
facilities, utilized in the organization of railway transportation.
This equipment has an influence on the safety of the
technological process that points out the relevance of the
performed research, taking into account the complexity of the
development of adequate techniques. The proposed approach is
based on a discrete-event simulation model that is built in
AnyLogic 7. The model simulates the operational process of
telecommunication equipment with deteriorated reliability
characteristics, collects statistical data and calculates reliability
and quality indicators. Using the proposed technique, it is
possible to analyze the influence of input parameters on the
estimated indices. The model is also quite flexible and can be
easily adapted in order to consider new exploitation factors. By
simulation experiments, it is shown that the strategy with
changeable maintenance intervals can assure the minimum of
required availability.
Index Terms – Reliability, quality, maintenance, simulation,
AnyLogic.
I. INTRODUCTION
T HE CRUCIAL property of telecommunication
equipment, utilized as a part of railway infrastructure, is
a reliable operation that influences the safety of
transportation processes. One of the methods for the required
safety level ensuring is the reliability maintenance of
corresponding facilities. This property depends on many
factors, for example, such as failure rates of blocks and
components, qualification of operation staff, periodicity and
length of preventive operations, as well as the period of time
for renewal.
The main integrated reliability indicator of railway
telecommunication equipment is the Inherent Availability. A
popular method for the estimation and analysis of properties
and characteristics of systems and technological processes in
different sectors of industry, as well as in transportation field,
is simulation, and in case of a stochastic process, it is
supposed as statistical modeling or Monte-Carlo modeling.
In references [1,2], an advantage of this approach with a
comparison to empirical technique is underlined for high-
reliable systems, when it is quite complicated to estimate
reliability measures with acceptable accuracy owing to the
rare appearance of failures. As a result, statistical modeling is
used for the reliability estimation of motor transport [2,3], for
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the determination of the most efficient alternatives of traffic
flow processing [4,5], for the analysis of railway line
capacity [6,7]. This simulation approach also finds
application in reliability indicators estimation [8,9] and
preventive maintenance planning of radio telecommunication
equipment [10,11], as well as for software reliability
assessment [12].
Nowadays, AnyLogic as simulation modeling instrument
gains more and more popularity among researchers [13-17].
This modeling environment provides an opportunity for
model visual design and it aggregates three modern
paradigms of a simulation model development: system
dynamics, agent, and discrete-event [18]. Moreover, the
hallmark of the instrument is the powerful programming
language allowing to consider various details and a user-
friendly graphical interface providing simplification and
speeding-up of a model development process. The mentioned
advantages with reference to models of varying complexity
have determined the widespread application of this
instrument in different fields. AnyLogic is used for
evaluation of integrated reliability measures of radio
engineering systems [15], for modelling of preventive
maintenance process of railway radio stations [19], for
predictions of elements reliability of information systems
[16], for analysis of computer networks performance [20,21],
and also for modelling of vehicle timetables [17] and
assessment of indices of railway junction operation [14].
II. PROBLEM DEFINITION
The objective of the work is the development of a
simulation model for the estimation of preventive
maintenance procedures efficiency as applied to
telecommunication facilities, utilized as a part of the
infrastructural equipment. The model imitates the operation
of the considered devices taking into account various factors
that correspond to the real-life technological processes. This
fact leads to a representation of functioning process as a state
diagram which implementation can be done using the
discrete-event approach of AnyLogic software. Thus, in the
proposed simulation technique two main blocks that can be
identified, the first element is a stochastic discrete-event
model imitating the operation of devices and the second one
is a module for statistical data processing and calculation of
quality indicators, such as Inherent Availability and Quality
2018 14th International Scientific-Technical Conference APEIE – 44894
Index of Maintenance Efficiency, denoted here as AI and QI,
respectively. AnyLogic instruments give an opportunity to
change easily the structure of the model so as to consider
new factors or to delete any of states that are already
incorporated, as well as to implement simulation experiments
for the calculation of quality indicators depending on the
input parameters. Thus, the AnyLogic-based model
represents a useful instrument for the maintenance efficiency
analysis of technological equipment which reliable operation
is important for railway transportation processes.
III. THEORY
The proposed simulation model considers the following
input parameters: failure rates of equipment, misalignment
rates during the operation, repair time, preventive
maintenance length and its periodicity, probability of
erroneous actions of service staff, probability of spare and
replacement parts lack, extra spent waiting time of spare
parts, type I (α) and type II (β) errors of external and
embedded diagnostic devices. Taking into account the
mentioned parameters, the operational process can be
approximated by the following set of states: S0 – operable
state, S1 – preventive maintenance of operable system, S2 –
non-operable state, S3 – latent failure, S4 – fictitious failure,
S5 – maintenance of system being in latent failure, S6 –
misalignment state and S7 – maintenance of system with
misalignment.
Consequently, a graphical model of the considered
functioning process can be interpreted by a state diagram in
Fig. 1.
Fig. 1. The state diagram of the considered operational process.
The basic AnyLogic instruments that were used for the
model development are “Statechart”, “Event” and
“Database”.
“Statechart” is a directed graph of a state machine that
describes the behavior of the model and events, causing the
transitions between the states, as well as it performs actions,
occurring with the states change. Using this instrument, it is
possible to set graphically a discrete behavior of complex
processes and objects. Transitions between states could occur
as a result of a meeting of specified conditions, by timeout or
receiving a message.
169
“Event” is an instrument for modeling of time intervals of
the occurrence of events. Its operation is realized in three
modes: by timeout, if the condition is met and with the
specified rate. In this research, the mode with the specified
rate was used.
“Database” is a data set of model parameters values,
presented in tabular form. Using this instrument, the
collection of statistics for output model parameters such as
Inherent Availability AI and Quality Index of Maintenance
Efficiency QI is performed in the described model.
The input model parameters include: failure rate of
operable system (Lf), system misalignment rate (Lm), failure
rate of system with misalignment (Lmf), maintenance interval
(Tint), system testing time during maintenance (Tt), repair
time (Tr), probability of spare and replacement parts lack
(Psrp), extra spent waiting time of spare parts (Tsrp), type
I errors of external and embedded diagnostic devices (α1,α2),
type II errors of external and embedded diagnostic devices
(β1, β2), probability of erroneous actions of service staff
(Per), number of model runs (Np) and simulation time during
a run (Ts). As it was mentioned before, the model performs
the collection of statistics, that is the total time of stay in
each state of the process in Fig. 1. On the basis of these data,
two main model output parameters, AI and QI, are calculated.
The Inherent Availability AI for the considered model is
evaluated as follows:
TS0 + TS4 + TS6
AI = , (1)
TS0 + TS2 + TS3 + TS4 + TS6
where TS0 is the total time of stay in operable state S0; TS2 is
the total time of stay in non-operable state S2; TS3 is the total
time of stay in the state of latent failure S3; TS4 is the total
time of stay in the state of fictitious failure S4 and TS6 is the
total time of stay in misalignment state S6.
The calculation of the Quality Index QI is implemented
using a user-defined function that is based on the current
methodology of maintenance quality evaluation of
telecommunication facilities on Russian railways. According
to this methodology, all break downs of equipment are
divided into failures and technological disruptions. Failures
have three categories regarding the gravity of
consequencesand disruptions are characterized by two
classes. For both kinds of operation break (failures and
disruptions), a certain number of penalty points are accrued
owing to the methodology. Moreover, inside each category
of failures, there are subcategories with a specified number
of penalty points with respect to their gravity. For example, a
failure of the 1st category corresponds to the maximum of 80
penalty points for a railroad accident (train crash), whereas if
a failure resulted in a train traffic delay for one hour or more,
the same 1st category failure is estimated at 24 points.
The total number of penalty points also depend on repair
time that is necessary for restoring of operable state of
telecommunication equipment and is calculated as follows:
Q = QI 0 + 0.5 ⋅ QI 0 (tac ⋅ tav ) / tav , (2)
where Q is the final penalty score; QI0 is the number of
penalty points for a failure or a disruption regarding the
methodology; tac is the actual restore time of equipment and
tav is the average restore time regulated by the methodology.
 XIV Международная научно-техническая конференция АПЭП – 2018

The values of repair time (Tr), maintenance testing time In order to obtain relevant estimations of the considered
(Tt) and extra spent waiting time of spare parts (Tsrp) are indicators, it is necessary to perform simulation experiments
generated randomly according to Gaussian distribution law with a certain number of runs. An adequate number of model
with specified mean and standard deviation. The monthly runs Np can be estimated on the basis of the Chebyshev’s
rate of maintenance quality that corresponds to the inequality [22]. Hence, if we want the estimations of output
abovementioned Quality Index of Maintenance Efficiency parameters to fall within the range μ ± σ/20 with the
(QI) is calculated per 100 units of maintained equipment as probability of 0.95, the required number of runs is calculated
follows: as 202/0.05=8000. As it is shown in [22], a number of runs
Q obtained with the Chebyshev’s inequality are significantly
QI = ⋅100, (3) greater than it is necessary for a set of random numbers with
TO
the normal distribution. However, this method allows
where TO is the overall number of technical units of
achievement of guaranteed accuracy with a deviation of the
maintained facilities.
ensemble distribution from the normal.
The obtained estimation QI can be interpreted by one of
As an initial state at the beginning of each run is set as the
four categorical quality score: “Excellent” if the estimation is
operable state S0, since it is assumed that the
in an interval from 0 to 14.5, “Good” if it is more than 14.5
telecommunication equipment is used in responsible
but less than the target value, “Satisfactory” if it is more than
technological processes, and it imposes requirements of
the target value but less than 80 and “Unsatisfactory” if it is
guaranteed operability at the start of exploitation. In each
more than 80 points. The availability of the quality target
state of the process, a random selection of the next transition
value introduction makes it possible to manage the
to other state is carried out with a timeout, corresponded to
operational process of the telecommunication equipment.
the time interval through which the event occurs. For the
Thus, in order to obtain estimations of the mentioned
operable state S0, it is specified five events which are an
reliability indicator AI, the AnyLogic-based model
occurrence of an apparent failure, latent and fictitious
implements a multivariate simulation of the considered
failures, as well as existing misalignments of system
operational process collecting the statistical data about
parameters through random time interval τ andthe advent of
duration of stay in each state TSi, i ∈{0,7}. In the case of the the scheduled maintenance period with time interval Tint. In
quality indicator QI, the model operates with the value of the state of preventive maintenance of operable system S1,
actual repair time and set of input parameters that are four events can take place: an occurrence of a failure within a
constant and regulated by the methodology of maintenance
random period of time τs as a result of erroneous actions of
quality evaluation. The user-defined function calculates Q
the service staff during maintenance (1); termination of
and updates QI every time when the process passes the non-
maintenance after the specified period of the testing time Tt
operable state S2. Simultaneously with the simulation of the
(2); and an occurrence of a latent (3) or fictitious (4) failure
operational process in Fig. 1, the storage of statistics is
during maintenance due to diagnosis errors of external
carried out in a database once in a month according to the
diagnostic devices. The non-operable state S2 has two
model time using the AnyLogic instruments, such as
possible events. This is the termination of system repairing
“Dataset”, “Collection” and “Event”. Consequently, the
after time Tr, as well as an occurrence of a failure after a
update of two main output parameters, AI and QI, is done
random time interval τs in the wake of erroneous actions of
with the same periodicity so as to figure curves of indicators
the service staff during repair procedures.
changing in time.

Fig. 2. The user interface of the developed model during simulation.

170
2018 14th International Scientific-Technical Conference APEIE – 44894
The state of latent failure S3 has only one possible event that
is an advent of scheduled preventive maintenance after
interval Tint which is implemented within testing time Tt. In
the state of fictitious failure S5, there is only one exit that is
realized after testing time Tt. Transitions from the state of
maintenance of system being in latent failure S5 proceed
after two possible situations of a discovering or a failure of
identifying of latent failure during testing time Tt of
preventive maintenance. The events of states S6 and S7,
where the system is misaligned and subsequently is subject
to maintenance procedures, are similar to the states S0 and
S1, respectively.
AnyLogic provides an opportunity of creating a user-
friendly interface that helps in models debugging and
analysis of simulation results. The graphical user interface of
the proposed simulation model for modeling operation
process, depicted in Fig. 1, and calculation of the Inherent
Availability AI and Quality Index of Maintenance Efficiency
QI is presented in Fig. 2.
After the carrying out an experiment with the specified
number of runs Np = 8000, all collected statistical data are
averaged and model output parameters are calculated. In the
following section, some computational results of the
performed simulation experiments are presented for a set of
input parameters. However, it should be mentioned that the
model is flexible in configuration and can be easily used for
other values of input parameters and, moreover, can be
modified and adapted in order to consider new exploitation
factors.
IV. EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS
For a demonstration of the performance of the developed
model, series of simulation experiments have been carried
out for an example of railway telecommunication equipment
that is stationary radio RS-46MC. The rates of sudden λS and
gradual λG failures were calculated using the method of
group average failure rates of radio elements, consequently,
λS = 5.91⋅10-4 1/h and λG = 1.35⋅10-4 1/h. Totally two groups
of experiments have been performed, the first is without
maintenance when the described process of eight states is
converted to a 5-states process. The second set has supposed
the implementation of six simulations with different values
of preventive maintenance periodicity Tint when Tint is a
constant during simulation time and is chosen from the set: 1
month (720 hours), 3 months (2160 hours), 6 months (4320
hours), 1 year (8640 hours) and 1.5 years (12960 hours). And
the last experiment has been done for variable periodicity as
it is shown in Table I. This variation of Tint has been
concluded after the analysis of the obtained curves for the
Inherent Availability AI with an objective to maintain the
minimum required level of availability AImin that equals to
0.998. The obtained curve, showing a variation of AI for all
performed experiments, are presented in Fig. 3.
171
TABLE I
THE CHANGE OF MAINTENANCE PERIODICITY DURING
SIMULATION TIME
Simulation time Ts, months Maintenance periodicity Tint
0≤Ts≤54 12960 hours / 1.5 years
54<Ts≤72 4320 hours / 6 months
72<Ts≤102 2160 hours / 3 months
Ts>102 720 hours / 1 months
The rest of the input parameters have the following values.
1. Failure rate of operable system Lf = λS = 5.91⋅10-4 1/h.
2. System misalignment rate Lm = 2.7⋅10-4 1/h.
3. Failure rate of misaligned system Lmf = λG = 1.35⋅10-4
1/h.
4. System testing time during maintenance Tt =1 h.
5. Repair time for failures of the 1st and 2nd category Tr =
9 h, for the 3rd category Tr= 5 h and Tr= 2 h for technological
disruptions.
6. Probability of spare and replacement parts lack
Psrp = 0.05.
7. Extra spent waiting time of spare parts Tsrp = 12 h for
failures and Tsrp = 6 h for technological disruptions.
8. Type I errors of external and embedded diagnostic
devices α1= 0.005 and α2 = 0.01.
9. Type II errors of external and embedded diagnostic
devices β1= 0.001 and β2= 0.002.
10. Probability of erroneous actions of service staff
Per = 0.05.
The estimations of two types for the Quality Index of
Maintenance Efficiency QI have been obtained, monthly
average QIM and outcome accumulated during the whole
operation period QIO. The obtained results for QIM showed
that the estimations tend to the constant value of 10.5 penalty
points in all performed experiments, thus, the fixed value of
QIM does not depend on the maintenance periodicity. The
experimental curves for QIO are illustrated in Fig. 4.
Fig. 4. The experimental curves of Quality Index with accumulated
outcome QIO for different maintenance interval Tint.
V. DISCUSSION OF RESULTS
The experimental results, presented in the previous section
in Fig. 3, have demonstrated the efficiency of the preventive
maintenance. As it is shown, the operation of the considered
radio equipment will result in decreasing ofthe Inherent
Availability AI less than AImin = 0.998 after 20 months or less
than 2 years of exploitation. Implementation of preventive
maintenance allows keeping the desired level of availability,
 XIV Международная научно-техническая конференция АПЭП – 2018
and more frequently it is done the higher the availability is
during the operation. However, it could be seen that too
frequent maintenance results in lesser availability at the
beginning of operation till 6 months approximately. It is
caused mainly by the taking into account possible erroneous
actions of service staff during maintenance. Despite the fact
that the probability of service staff error Per was quite low
and equaled to 0.05, its influence is clearly visible. Also, it
could be mentioned that more frequent maintenance is more
efficient than the maintenance with intervals 8640 and 12960
hours relating to gradual failures as the availability is
decreasing slower after 5 years (60 months). The considered
strategy with the variable maintenance intervals, described in
Table I, efficiently assures the minimum of availability
AImin = 0.998.
Regarding the monthly average Quality Index QIM, its
value of penalty points corresponds to “Excellent”
categorical quality score. The main conclusion relating to
this output is its tending to the constant value, and it was
observed that for the considered values of maintenance
periodicity the constant level is achieved at the same moment
of time, approximately after 3.5 years of operation. Thus,
monthly average Quality Index is independent of the
maintenance periodicity Tint.
The experimental curves of Quality Index with
accumulated outcome QIO, presented in Fig. 4, show an
inverse relationship between quality indicator and
maintenance intervals. More frequently the maintenance is
performed, the higher is QIO, whereas the changeable Tint
illustrates the best result. This fact confirms the necessity for
the planning of variable maintenance periodicity that
provides better reliability and quality measures.
Fig. 3. The simulation results for the Inherent Availability AI for different
maintenance interval Tint.
VI. CONCLUSION
Quality control of technological equipment operation plays
an important role in providing and ensuring the safety of
responsible processes in the majority of fields of industry and
transportation. In most cases, the assessment of quality
indicators is performed posteriori that has evident
disadvantages. Consequently, the development of
instruments for the estimation of quality measures that help
to organize an efficient operation process is an actual
problem.
In this paper, the results of an attempt of simulation model
development for solving the abovementioned problem
172
relating to the railway telecommunication equipment are
presented. The model was created in AnyLogic 7 with the
application of the discrete-event approach. The current
version of the model is the continuation of our previous
research and it has significant differences applying to the
consideration of aging equipment through its misalignments
and occurrence of latent and fictitious failures. The model
allows the estimation of the Inherent Availability and Quality
Index of Maintenance Efficiency of railway
telecommunication facilities. Consequently, it can be used
for efficiency evaluation of modernization of preventive
maintenance system of equipment already in use and/or
newly implemented telecommunication systems by the
deployment of more flexible maintenance strategy with
variable periodicity.
Our future research we will concentrate on the
development of algorithms for the automated design of
maintenance strategies with variable maintenance intervals.
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Alexander A. Lyubchenko received his B.Sc. and

M.Sc. in Automation and Control from Omsk State
Transport University, Russia, in 2007 and 2009,
respectively. In 2013, he got the Cand.Sc. (Ph.D.)
degree in Computer-aided design from Siberian
State Automobile and Highway Academy, Omsk,
Russia. Currently, he is a post-doctorate researcher
at the University of Burgos, Spain.

Evgeniy Y. Kopytov, the candidate of technical

science (Ph.D.), the lecturer of the department
“Communication and Information Safety” of Omsk
State Technical University, Russia. The range of
academic interests – reliability of technical systems,
systems of the professional and special radio
communication.

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