Decision Science

December 2022 Examination

Ans 1.

The current scenario and the progression of these activities are dependent on the Indian
Premier League's final season, which features their favourite side, Garuda. According to a
professional, Raj Kaul, Garuda has a 60% chance of winning based on the existing
circumstances. According to the outcomes of the previous programme, teams win the first
game of the championship when they win 70% of the time. After losing 25% of the time, they
win the opening game of the series. Following the original instance, their team was
unsuccessful. As a result, they stand an excellent chance of winning their series.
W: A situation or event in which team Garuda wins the series.
L: Any instance in which the Garuda team suffers a series loss
F: A case in which the Garuda team wins the first match
F: A case where the Garuda team loses the first game

From the given data:

P (W) = 0.6, it tracks that p (L) = 1-0.6 = 0.4

P (F/W) = 0.70, it tracks that p (F’/W) = 1-0.70 = 0.3

P (F/L) =0.25, it tracks that p (F’/L) = 1- 0.25 = 0.75

With the help of data, they draw a Tree Diagram:

GARUDA

WIN THE SERIES LOST THE SERIES

0.6
0.4
 WIN THE FIRST GAME LOST THE FIRST GAME WIN THE FIRST GAME LOST THE FIRST
GAME

0.70 0.30 0.25

0.75

A probability space can be visualised as a tree diagram for analytical inference. These
pictures could show a variety of things. The steps that should be performed to solve a
problem are shown in a tree diagram. Beginning with a single node, the tree diagram takes on
a tree-like shape as the connections between the nodes branch out into more branches. It
implies that an occurrence could occur without requiring intricate computations (Blitzstein &
Hwang, 2004). (2015). It reveals every consequence a circumstance might have.

A probability tree keeps track of all possible outcomes of an event, together with their
probabilities. They help reduce the possibility because they consider all possible outcomes.
When events are arranged according to potential and data, the tree graph determines how
many outcomes are possible. The branching directions of the tree diagram reflect possible
directions for an event. It is an easy way to show how things develop and takes into account
every scenario (Choi) (2021).

A garuda can start at one point on a diagram of a tree, move down its branches, come across
situations that are mutually exclusive, or reach conclusions that are mutually incongruent.
Garuda, who is viewed as the initial node, has the choice to win or lose the collection, which
is the justification for this design. It provides a tactical action by combining the possibility,
options, prices, and incentives of a choice. The figure starts with a single object and spreads
out to a number of nodes, each of which represents a different event or possibility. Before
going to the second node, though, more decisions or judgments must be made. The
probability tree's conclusion is as follows:

The Required probability is p (W/F)

P (W/F’) = p (WՈ F’) / P (F’)

0.18 / 0.18 +0.3

0.180 / 48

0.375

OR

Ans 2.

Calculations of Regression Analysis:

X Y X*Y χ2 y²
5 5 25 25 25
5 5 25 25 25
4 5 20 16 25
4 5 20 16 25
5 5 25 25 25
5 5 25 25 25
3 5 15 9 25
5 5 25 25 25
4 4 16 16 16
4 4 16 16 16
4 4 16 16 16
4 4 16 16 16
3 4 12 9 16
3 4 12 9 16
4 4 16 16 16
2 4 8 4 16
3 3 9 9 9
3 3 9 9 9
3 3 9 9 9
2 3 6 4 9
2 2 4 4 4
2 2 4 4 4
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
3 1 3 9 1
1 1 1 1 1
Sum = 86 Sum = 93 Sum = 340 Sum=320 Sum=377

With the given data

X = 1/𝑛 ∑𝑛𝑖=0 Xi

= 86 /27 = 3.185185

Y = 1/𝑛 ∑𝑛𝑖=0 Yi

= 93/27 = 3.444444444
𝒏 𝟏 𝒏
𝑺𝑺𝒙𝒙 = ∑ 𝑿𝟐 − ( ∑ 𝑿𝒊 )
𝒊=𝟏 𝑵 𝒊=𝟏

= 320 - 862 / 27 = 46.0740

𝒏 𝟏 𝒏
𝑺𝑺𝒚𝒚 = ∑ 𝒀𝟐 − ( ∑ 𝒀𝒊 )
𝒊=𝟏 𝑵 𝒊=𝟏

= 377 - 932 /27 = 56.66666

Therefore,
𝟏 𝒏
𝑺𝑺𝒙𝒚 = ∑𝒏𝒊=𝟏 𝑿𝒊 𝒀𝒊 – 𝒏 (∑𝒊=𝟎 𝐗𝐢) (𝟏/𝒏 ∑𝒏𝒊=𝟎 𝐘𝐢)

= 93/27 = 43.777

As a result, using the computations above, the regression coefficients (the inclination m and
the Y-intercept n) were just as follows:

M = SSxy / SSxx = 43.77777/ 46.074074

 = 0.9502

N = Y – X *m = 3.4444444- 3.185185185 *0.9502

= 0.418

Through this, the regression equation is = Y = 0.418 + 0.9502 X

Therefore, based on the information provided above, the following scatter plot and regression
plot are obtained:

The Line of regression Y on X is

Y = 0.418 + 0.9502 X

Therefore, based on the information provided above, the following scatter plot and regression
plot are obtained:

A.

Regression is a quantitative statistical technique that allows researchers to examine the

relationship between two or more significant factors. Although there are many variations of
the regression version, they all generally concentrate on how one or even many random
parameters affect the predictor variables. When you only have the predictor variables, you
can look into how a certain piece of information might affect financial performance or make
reasonable guesses about what a dependent variable's value might be.
The three subsequent steps are required:
• Examining the connections and trends in the data
• It approximates the model or matches the line.
• It attests to the design's accuracy and applicability.
Regression forecasting can surely be useful from a commercial standpoint for someone
managing data in the future. Regression analysis comes in a variety of forms, including
linear, square, and sequential. Direct models that are easy, plentiful, and routine are much
more prevalent. Nonlinear regression analysis is typically employed on substantially more
complex data sets when the dependent variable and the connections between the variables are
exponential. One of the many uses for multivariate regression in a variety of fields is the
development of economic solutions.
• It projects revenue for the present and the future.
• It acknowledges both need and availability.
• They are familiar with the common degrees.
• Consider and comprehend how each of these elements is impacted by the variables.

According to calculations and analysis, the line of regression for the provided data is Y =
0.418 + 0.9502 X. The term "Y on X," which means "regression of y on X," is used to
represent this relationship, in which y is the dependent variable and x is the independent
variable. The regression equation, a straightforward formula, can be used to show the
association.

B. The regression formula's slope, b1 = 0.9502, which employs a scale from 1 to 5, indicates
that there is a positive association between them. When more units with higher ratings are
provided by customers, customer satisfaction levels increase.
Why do we remember businesses that have let us down more than those that have made us
happy? There are plenty of other ways to say this. We guarantee that a product or service will
meet our needs by paying for it.We don't joyfully exclaim, "Isn't it amazing?" It got good
reviews. We paid for that service out of our cash on hand. More stringent international laws
should be added. We have access to things that would amaze our kind grandparents, but we
do not give them much thought because we are used to using them. The base is lifted higher
and higher. As our lives become more complicated, stress levels increase. Maintaining high
levels of customer satisfaction in this context is becoming increasingly challenging. Even if
every client is happy with the products and services you offer, there is a significant
probability that a sizable percentage of them will choose one of your rivals.

Market investors pay close attention to and regularly assess their clients' contentment.
Continual interaction with clients reveals his abilities and potential growth areas. Any
business can benefit from such disorganised responses, but formalising and managing
anything bigger than a tiny shop is difficult. Therefore, conducting client surveys is essential
in order to gauge and monitor satisfaction levels.

Shopping websites also perform their own studies, just like conventional businesses with
physical locations. You must research a significant rival in your sector. They are there
because of what they do.
Your target market (the customers most likely to make purchases from you), the competition
(retailers that provide comparable goods and services), as well as the current trends and
actions in the industry (Probably a specialised under-vertical.)
One of the best ways to comprehend the viewpoints of the people in your target audience is to
use critical sources, sometimes known as "crucial research." The main methods used to
collect data for this independent study include internet surveys, focus groups, and interviews.
Because you have control over the data you collect, surveys are a realistic solution. This
suggests that you have some degree of influence over the characteristics of the survey
participants and the questions you ask them.
Abstract thought is a technique for analysing the relationship between two or more objects.
Regression design is a tool that businesses may use to better understand the significance of
their data points and make good use of them.
A value of 0.9502 or higher in the regression equation for variable b1 denotes a significant
correlation between them. A rise in customer superiority ratings correlates with a rise in
consumer satisfaction ratings because the scale ranges from 1 to 5. Shivani Raje's business is
expanding as a result of her use of internet purchasing, claims the poll. Therefore, it can be
used to comprehend any kind of data trend. With the aid of this fresh viewpoint, it was
frequently possible to identify the elements that might change Khakhra.

Ans 3a.

By using excel

Relative frequency = F1/total frequency ex.

Relative frequency = F1/total frequency

= 2915/6651 = 0.438279958

Relative regularity is the frequency of occurrence of an event type relative to the total number
of observations. It is frequently necessary to use proportions, fractions, and percentages.
A percentage representation of the count is given in calculations based on relative frequency
demand by dividing the count of a specific type of occurrence by the total number of
observations. Following is a description of its methodology:

As empirical possibilities exist, relative frequencies are also beneficial. Chances indicate the
likelihood that a particular event will take place. Calculations of the likelihood of events
routinely and significantly employ this idea. On the other hand, managing empirical
likelihood necessitates keeping an eye on its relative frequency. In other words, analysts base
their judgments on evidence from the real world rather than depending on theoretical models.

State Name District Name Number of Relative Result

Micro, Small Frequency
and = Subgroup
Medium frequency, the
Enterprises total frequency
Tripura WEST 2915 2915 / 6651 0.43
TRIPURA
Tripura SOUTH 586 586 / 6651 0.08
TRIPURA
Tripura DHALAI 439 439 / 6651 0.006
Tripura NORTH 854 854 / 6651 0.12
TRIPURA
Tripura KHOWAI 514 514 / 6651 0.06
Tripura UNAKOTI 447 447 / 6651 0.06
Tripura SEPAHIJALA 383 383 /6651 0.05
Tripura GOMATI 513 513 / 6651 0.07
Sum 6651 1
From the above chart it is seen that west Tripura of has maximum numbers MSME's

Ans 3b.

1).

Based on the provided data, it analyses the relative frequency, which is a series of outcomes
brought about by certain data that establishes the relative frequency. Each time they run the
study, they are free to alter this frequency. The relative frequency of an occurrence will be
close to the possibility that it will occur in the numerous tests they do. The Andhra Pradesh
districts of West Puducherry and North Puducherry had higher relative frequency rates,
according to the study (McManus, 2016). (2015). West Tripura and North Tripura have the
highest relative frequencies, 0.43 and 0.12, respectively; hence, they are used to compare the
top two districts.

Number of Micro, Small and

Medium Enterprises
West Tripura 2915
North Tripura 854
 Two districts of data
3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
West Tripura North Tripura

2).

State Name District Name Number of Micro, Small and

Medium Enterprises
ANDHRA SRIKAKULAM 10895
PRADESH
ANDHRA VIZIANAGARAM 30186
PRADESH
ANDHRA VISAKHAPATNAM 29070
PRADESH
ANDHRA EAST GODAVARI 26546
PRADESH
ANDHRA WEST GODAVARI 33541
PRADESH
ANDHRA KRISHNA 23231
PRADESH
ANDHRA GUNTUR 25479
PRADESH
ANDHRA PRAKASAM 45171
PRADESH
ANDHRA SPSR NELLORE 54059
PRADESH
ANDHRA Y.S.R 37500
PRADESH
ANDHRA KURNOOL 15362
PRADESH
ANDHRA ANANTHAPUR 21193
PRADESH
ANDHRA CHITOOR 27670
PRADESH

The median is the statistic that falls in the middle of a collection of data points. The median
value is the one that lies roughly in the middle of the distribution. The facts should be
prioritised from best to worst or from least to most important before calculating the median.
Depending on the population, the upper and lower halves of the median represent a
population's upper and lower halves, a circulation function, or a choice of data. While 50% of
the occurrences are occurring more frequently, 50% of the data has been severely reduced.
The median makes it possible to express several informational components with just one. The
median is the analytical step that is the simplest to compute.

Here is a formula for computing a data set's median when there are few readily available
observations. When there are unusual types of observations, the median formula might take
on a variety of distinct forms. It is very important to know if a set of data contains an odd
number of values or an even number of values.

There are total no of district = 13

N+1
Median = ( )
2
𝟏𝟑+𝟏 𝟏𝟒
So median = = = 𝟕𝒕𝒉 𝒊𝒕𝒆𝒎
𝟐 𝟐

So, MEDIAN VALUE = 27670

The list of the district is CHITTOOR in Andhra Pradesh