Subject: Decision Science

Ans 1.

It depends on the current situation; the series of these occasions, i.e., The Indian Premier League's
last season, includes their favoured group, Garuda. As indicated by experienced, i.e., Raj Kaul,
Garuda's possibility to win is 60% in light of his examination of the ongoing situation. At the point
when groups win 70% of the time, they win the series opener in the title, Records from the past
program. In the wake of losing 25% of the time in the series, they take the initial game. The initial
suit is done, and their group is lost or defeated.

Therefore, the probability that it will win their series i.e.

P: A situation or event whereby team Garuda wins the series

Q: A situation that the team Garuda loses the series

R: A situation that the team Garuda wins the first game

R’: A situation that the team Garuda loses the first game

We can take the different Probability values from the given data which are given below:

P (P) = 0.6, it tracks that P (Q) = 1-0.6 = 0.4

P (R/P) = 0.70, it tracks that P (R’/P) = 1-0.70 = 0.3

P (R/Q) =0.25, it tracks that P (R’/Q) = 1- 0.25 = 0.75

With the help of data, Lets draw a Tree Diagram:

Team Garuda

Probability Probability
win the lose the
series 0.6 series 0.4

Probability If Probability if Probability if Probability If

win the First lose the first lose the first Win the first
Game 0.7 Game 0.30 Game 0.25 Game 0.75
Therefor,

Probability of wining the series and wining the first game = (0.6) * (0.7) = 0.42

Probability of wining the series and losing the first game = (0.6) * (0.3) = 0.18

Probability of losing the series and winning the first game = (0.4) * (0.25) = 0.1

Probability of losing the series and loosing the first game = (0.4) * (0.75) = 0.3

A tree outline can address a probability space in scientific derivation. These photos could address an
assortment of various events. The dominance hierarchy of the means that ought to be taken to fix an
issue is displayed in a tree outline. The tree outline begins with a singular hub, and as all hub's
associations transform into new branches, a tree-like engineering is delivered. It demonstrates the
Probability that an occasion will happen without the prerequisite of intricate computations. It
uncovers each outcome that an event could have.

A Probability tree intends to list all potential impacts of an event and work out the opportunity of
everyone. Since they catch every single imaginable repercussion, they are useful in possibility. In
plausibility and information, the tree diagram ascertains the quantity of choices for an occasion when
they are surrendered in a deliberate technique. Each branch's way in the tree outline compares to a
potential course for an occasion. It is a straightforward procedure for depicting the improvement of
events and catches each conceivable outcome.

With the assistance of a tree outline utilized for a situation study, a Garuda can begin at a singular
point, go on an outing a course along the tree's parts, experience on the whole prohibitive occasions,
or take commonly conflicting decisions. The idea of this outline is that Garuda has a choice to win
or lose the assortment and is contemplated as an underlying hub. It supplies an essential activity by
consolidating the opportunity, decisions, costs, and motivating forces of a choice. A solitary
substance fills in as the outline's starting component, from which branches arise to different hubs that
substitute for similarly restrictive choices or happenings. In any case, in the second hub, different
decisions or options need to occur till the technique forward gets to. The decision of the probability
tree is as follows:

The Required probability is P (P/R) :

P (P/R’) = P (PՈ R’) / P (R’)

= 0.18 / (0.18 +0.3)

= (0.180 / 0.48)

P (P/R’) = 0.375.

Therefor the Probability that Team Garuda will win the series is 0.37.
Ans 2.

Calculations of Regression Analysis:

X Y X*Y χ2 y²

5 5 25 25 25
5 5 25 25 25
4 5 20 16 25
4 5 20 16 25
5 5 25 25 25
5 5 25 25 25
3 5 15 9 25
5 5 25 25 25
4 4 16 16 16
4 4 16 16 16
4 4 16 16 16
4 4 16 16 16
3 4 12 9 16
3 4 12 9 16
4 4 16 16 16
2 4 8 4 16
3 3 9 9 9
3 3 9 9 9
3 3 9 9 9
2 3 6 4 9
2 2 4 4 4
2 2 4 4 4
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
3 1 3 9 1
1 1 1 1 1
Sum = 86 Sum = 93 Sum = 340 Sum=320 Sum=377

So, from the given information and data: n = 27

X = 1/𝑛 ∑𝑛𝑖=0 Xi

= 86 /27

= 3.185185

Y = 1/𝑛 ∑𝑛𝑖=0 Yi

= 93/27

= 3.444444444
 𝒏
𝟏 𝒏
𝟐
𝑺𝑺𝒙𝒙 = ∑ 𝑿 − ( ∑ 𝑿𝒊 )
𝒊=𝟏 𝑵 𝒊=𝟏

= 320 - 862 / 27

SSxx = 46.0740
𝒏 𝟏 𝒏
𝑺𝑺𝒚𝒚 = ∑ 𝒀𝟐 − ( ∑ 𝒀𝒊 )
𝒊=𝟏 𝑵 𝒊=𝟏

= 377 - 932 /27

= 56.66666

Therefore,
𝟏 𝒏
𝑺𝑺𝒙𝒚 = ∑𝒏𝒊=𝟏 𝑿𝒊 𝒀𝒊 – 𝒏 (∑𝒊=𝟎 𝐗𝐢) (𝟏/𝒏 ∑𝒏𝒊=𝟎 𝐘𝐢)

= 340 – ((1/27) * (86*93))

= 340 – 296.22

SSxy = 43.777

Subsequently, utilizing the calculations over, the relapse coefficients (the tendency m and the Y-
capture n) were similarly as follows:

M = SSxy / SSxx

= 43.77777/ 46.074074

Therefore, M = 0.9502

N = Y – X *m

= 3.4444444 – (3.185185185 *0.9502)

Therefore, N = 0.418

Through this, the regression equation is,

Y = 0.418 + 0.9502 X

Therefore, based on the information provided above, the following scatter plot and regression plot
are obtained:
 Scatterpot of X verses Y
8
7.0694
7
6.1192
6
5.169
5
4.2188
Y values

4
3.2686

3
2.3184

2 1.3682
1.08314
1

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
X Values

The Line of regression Y on X is

Y = 0.418 + 0.9502 X

Therefore, based on the information provided above, the following scatter plot and regression plot
are obtained:

1.

Regression is a quantitative statistical approach that empowers specialists to inspect the connection
between at least 2 indispensable boundaries. Albeit the relapse rendition has various varieties, at its
centre, they look at the consequences of one or even significantly more arbitrary boundaries on
indicator factors. They investigate exactly the way in which a specific enlightening effect would
impact the monetary presentation or conjecture the upsides of a dependent variable for people who
approach some data about the indicator factors. It comprises of consenting to three phases.

• Inspecting the information's relationship and directional signs.

• It appraises the model or matches the line.

• It sorts out the plan's appropriateness and accuracy.

Relapse anticipating can, unquestionably, be useful for an individual overseeing information in

ongoing headings from a business perspective. Relapse assessment comes in different sorts: straight,
square, and back-to-back. Significantly more run of the mill ones are simple, different, and routine
direct models. Nonlinear relapse investigation is typically utilized for substantially more confounded
informational collections when the reliant and the connection between factors are outstanding.
Multivariate relapse has a few applications in a determination of enterprises, unequivocally financial
arrangements.

• It approximates future and existing incomes.

• It perceives need and accessibility.

• They perceive the stock degrees.

• Look at and appreciate the impacts of the factors on every one of these components.

In light of the given information, through examination and computations, Y= 0.418 + 0.9502 X is
the Line of Relapse Y on X, which demonstrates that the Relapse of y on x is the term used to make
sense of this relationship where y is the dependent variable and x is the autonomous variable. A direct
recipe called the relapse condition can be utilized to delineate the relationship.

2.

B1 is the incline of the relapse equation, as b1 = 0.9502, which shows a positive connection between
them as the scale is from 1 to 5. An expanded unit in quality evaluations presented by purchasers
supports an expansion in the score of customers satisfaction.

Can any anyone explain why it is more straightforward for us to contemplate instances of
organizations that neglected to satisfy us rather than instances of organizations that did satisfy us?
There is a broad scope of potential depictions for this. We set up that it will fulfil our prerequisites
when we pay for an item or administration. We don't screech with satisfaction and shout, "Isn't it
exceptional? It worked!" That is the assistance that we have paid for with our money. To this,
incorporate the globe's consistently progressively severe prerequisites. In spite of the fact that we
approach items that would flabbergast our phenomenal grandparents, we don't really think about
them since we've become acclimated with utilizing them. The fundamental keeps on being raised
more noteworthy and higher. Meanwhile, our lives are progressively turning into significantly more
confounded, bringing about upgraded levels of pressure. In this climate, it is turning out to be ever
more enthusiastically to achieve high levels of consumer loyalty and enjoyment the purchasers you
have. What's more, regardless of whether all of your clients is really glad with the item and
administrations you offer, there is as yet a chance for a significant piece of them to surrender and
begin teaming up with your rivals.

Market financial backer continually keeps their finger on the beat of the satisfaction of their clients.
Sequential correspondence with clients reveals insight into the places where he sticks out and those
in which he requires redesign. Such disarranged reactions are valuable to any association; in any
case, it is trying to formalize and deal with much else critical than a corner store. Subsequently,
directing client overviews is significant to measure and screen levels of client fulfilment.

The statistical surveying accomplished for a shopping site is practically identical to the statistical
surveying accomplished for conventional organizations with actual areas. You will expect to achieve
research on one of the fundamental adversaries in your market. These are the accompanying.

Your objective market (clients most likely to purchase from your business).

Your adversaries (shopping organizations are selling comparative items/administrations).

The ongoing designs and exercises that are happening inside the area. (Most likely a sub-vertical or
a particular specialty market).

Utilizing key sources, furthermore called fundamental examination, is without a doubt one of the
best strategies for getting inside the heads of members of your ideal interest group. Interviews, center
gatherings, and web overviews are the essential techniques for this autonomous examination
assortment.

Overviews are a down to earth elective since they place you responsible for the data you accumulate,
which makes them incredibly common sense. This recommends that you have command over the
attributes of individuals who answer to your review and the inquiries presented to them.

An assessment instrument called conceptual idea is used to decide the connection between at least 2
variables. The relapse configuration helps an organization in understanding the meaning of its data
of interest and utilizing them fittingly through the utilization of business scientific ways to deal with
settle on better decisions.

The worth of the relapse condition of b1 is equivalent to or more than 0.9502, recommending a decent
web interface between them. Since the cluster is 1 to 5, an expansion in the predominance scores
presented by clients brings about a blast in the purchasers' fulfilment evaluations. In this manner, in
light of the review, Shivani Raje is selling through web-based business, and her business is piling up
at a more noteworthy level. That is the reason understanding any sort of pattern that appears in data
might be utilized. This new point of view could every now and again be instrumental in finding what
can change its Khakhra business.

Ans 3a.

State Name District Name Number of Micro, Small Relative Result

and Frequency
Medium Enterprises
Tripura WEST 2915 2915 / 6651 0.43
TRIPURA
Tripura SOUTH 586 586 / 6651 0.08
TRIPURA
Tripura DHALAI 439 439 / 6651 0.006

Tripura NORTH 854 854 / 6651 0.12

TRIPURA
Tripura KHOWAI 514 514 / 6651 0.06

Tripura UNAKOTI 447 447 / 6651 0.06

Tripura SEPAHIJALA 383 383 /6651 0.05

Tripura GOMATI 513 513 / 6651 0.07

Sum 6651 1
Formula for Calculating the Relative Frequency in the Excel file given below:

Relative frequency = F1/Total frequency ex.

Relative frequency = F1/Total frequency

= 2915/6651

Relative frequency = 0.438279958

When stood out from the hard and fast number of discernments, the repeat of occasion of a
specific event characterization is insinuated as its relative commonness. A repeat includes using
degrees, parts, and rates.

Assessments considering relative repeat include disconnecting the total number of

discernments by the count of a particular characterization of events to show up at a rate
depiction of the count. Complying with constitutes its method:

Relative frequencies furthermore capability as observational possible results. Chances assess

the probability that particular events will occur. Calculations of possible results every now and
again use the thought. In case, on the other hand, you notice the overall repeat of an occasion,
you are managing an observational likelihood. To spread it out doubtlessly, specialists register
them considering certifiable life discernments as opposed to educational models.

Relative Frequency
0.5
0.45 0.43
0.4
Relative Frequency

0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15 0.12
0.1 0.08 0.07
0.06 0.06 0.05
0.05 0.006
0
WEST SOUTH DHALAI NORTH KHOWAI UNAKOTI SEPAHIJALA GOMATI
TRIPURA TRIPURA TRIPURA
District Name

From the above chart we can conclude that west Tripura of Tripura state has maximum
numbers MSME's.
Ans 3b.

1).

State Name District Name Number of Micro, Relative Result

Small and Frequency
Medium
Enterprises
ANDHRA SRIKAKULAM 10895 10895/379903 0.028
PRADESH
ANDHRA VIZIANAGARAM 30186 30186/379903 0.079
PRADESH
ANDHRA VISAKHAPATNAM 29070 29070/379903 0.076
PRADESH
ANDHRA EAST GODAVARI 26546 26546/379903 0.0698
PRADESH
ANDHRA WEST GODAVARI 33541 33541/379903 0.088
PRADESH
ANDHRA KRISHNA 23231 23231/379903 0.061
PRADESH
ANDHRA GUNTUR 25479 25479/379903 0.067
PRADESH
ANDHRA PRAKASAM 45171 45171/379903 0.118
PRADESH
ANDHRA SPSR NELLORE 54059 54059/379903 0.14
PRADESH
ANDHRA Y.S.R 37500 37500/379903 0.098
PRADESH
ANDHRA KURNOOL 15362 15362/379903 0.04
PRADESH
ANDHRA ANANTHAPUR 21193 21193/379903 0.055
PRADESH
ANDHRA CHITOOR 27670 27670/379903 0.073
PRADESH
Total = 379903

In light of the given information, it examinations the Relative Frequency is the series of results
made by point by point information that sort out the relative recurrence. Each time they
complete the review, they can change this periodicity. The decided relative frequency of an
event will move toward the anticipated chance of happening in the various examinations they
run. It is uncovered that the Prakasam and the SPSR Nellore in Andhra Pradesh are two regions
that show higher worth in Relative Recurrence (McManus, (2015 ). Therefore, they assess the
top 2 districts based on relative frequency as Prakasam and SPSR Nellore has the highest
relative frequency, i.e., 0.118 and 0.14 respectively.

District Name
56000

54000

52000

50000

48000

46000

44000

42000

40000
Prakasam SPSR Nellore

District Name

2).

State Name District Name Number of Micro, Small and

Medium Enterprises
ANDHRA SRIKAKULAM 10895
PRADESH
ANDHRA VIZIANAGARAM 30186
PRADESH
ANDHRA VISAKHAPATNAM 29070
PRADESH
ANDHRA EAST GODAVARI 26546
PRADESH
ANDHRA WEST GODAVARI 33541
PRADESH
ANDHRA KRISHNA 23231
PRADESH
ANDHRA GUNTUR 25479
PRADESH
ANDHRA PRAKASAM 45171
PRADESH
ANDHRA SPSR NELLORE 54059
PRADESH
 ANDHRA Y.S.R 37500
PRADESH
ANDHRA KURNOOL 15362
PRADESH
ANDHRA ANANTHAPUR 21193
PRADESH
ANDHRA CHITOOR 27670
PRADESH

The median is the measurement that shows up in the centre of a group of data of interest. The
median is the worth that depends on the centre of the appropriation. The realities ought to
initially be classified from ideal to most horrendously terrible or as least to generally important
to get the median. A populace's upper and lower 50%, a dissemination capability, or a choice
of information are addressed by the top and diminished half of the median — the median
changes for various populaces. Half of the measurements are on a more regular basis, and half
are emphatically diminished. The median allows the declaration of a few data factors utilizing
a singular one. The median is the most direct scientific move toward register.

Here is the technique for deciding the median of an informational collection with a restricted
measure of perceptions. At the point when there are additionally abnormal assortments of
perceptions, the median equation is different. Subsequently, it is indispensable to decide
whether a specific information assortment has an odd assortment of things or a significantly
number of values. There are total no of districts, N = 13

N+1
Median = ( )
2
𝟏𝟑+𝟏 𝟏𝟒
So median = = = 𝟕𝒕𝒉 𝒊𝒕𝒆𝒎
𝟐 𝟐

So, MEDIAN VALUE = 27670.

So, the above median value is consisting of the district is CHITTOOR in Andhra Pradesh.

The lists of districts above median value are VISAKHAPATNAM, VIZIANAGARAM,

WEST GODAVARI, Y.S.R, PRAKASAM, SPSR NELLORE respectively.