Where Democrats and Republicans Differ On Gun Control Fivethirtyeight

12/5/23, 10:45 PM Where Democrats And Republicans Differ On Gun Control | FiveThirtyEight
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PUBLISHED JUN. 7, 2022, AT 6:00 AM
Just How Far Apart Are The Two Parties On Gun

Control?
By Ryan Best, Mary Radcliffe and Kaleigh Rogers
After what feels like a relentless sequence of high-profile mass shootings,

Americans are once again debating whether the country needs stronger
regulations on guns. Many lawmakers and activists contend that, even in a
country as bitterly polarized as the United States, some gun-control
measures actually attract wide support — whether Americans actually vote
for the measures they say they support is another matter. However, when
you compare specific questions by party response, there’s a gap.
Consider background checks. Morning Consult and Politico asked about this
gun-control measure in March 2021. How do you think Republicans and
Democrats responded?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/gun-control-polling-2022/ 1/8
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What percentage of Republican and Democratic respondents do you think said they
“strongly” or “somewhat” support requiring background checks for all gun purchasers?
0% 25 75 100
Source: Morning Consult/Politico, March 6-8, 2021, among 1,990 registered voters
Guess
That’s pretty close to consensus, but already we can see that even broadly
popular measures like background checks aren’t as appealing to some
Republican voters as they are to Democratic voters. Let’s take a look at some
other measures. In April 2021, the Pew Research Center asked about barring
people with mental-health issues from buying guns. How do you think
Republicans and Democrats responded?
“strongly” or “somewhat” favor preventing people with mental illnesses from purchasing
guns?
0% 25 75 100
Source: Pew Research Center, April 5-11, 2021, among 5,109 adults
Guess
Again, we see a lot of agreement from both sides of the political spectrum.
But this question was a little vague — what does it mean to prevent people
from buying guns? And which mental illnesses should be included? An APM
Research Lab survey on Extreme Risk Protection Orders tried to go deeper
by asking about these so-called “red flag” laws. These laws would allow
family members, the police or certain other officials to seek an ERPO, a  

court order to temporarily take guns away from someone who may harm
themselves or others. When asked whether they supported family-initiated
ERPOs, how do you think Republicans and Democrats responded?
“strongly” or “somewhat” support allowing a family member to seek a court order to
temporarily take away guns if they feel a gun owner may harm themselves or others?
0% 25 75 100
Source: APM Research Lab, July 16-21, 2019, among 1,009 U.S. adult residents
Guess
Once again, a majority of both Democrats and Republicans support this kind
of measure, though the gap is wider. When asked whether they would
support the police initiating such an action, support dropped among both
groups, to 78 percent among Democrats and 66 percent among Republicans.
How about a law banning assault weapons, something that Congress passed
in 1994 (but let expire 10 years later) and an option that President Biden
recently promoted?
“strongly” or “somewhat” favor banning assault-style weapons?
0% 25 75 100
Guess  
While Democratic support remains high, Republican support drops

dramatically, even though the previous ban enjoyed some bipartisan support
when it passed.
Another proposal that has been floated by politicians is allowing teachers to

carry weapons in school. How far apart do you think Republicans and
Democrats are in supporting this measure?
“strongly” or “somewhat” favor allowing teachers and school officials to carry guns in K-12
schools?
0% 25 75 100
Guess
While a majority of Republicans support this idea, it’s not nearly as popular
with them as some other measures — and it’s clearly unpopular with
Democrats.
But getting gun-control laws passed is not just about whether voters support
certain measures but also about how passionate voters are that those
measures will work. If a voter generally supports a new law but doesn’t think
it will actually change much, they may not be as active in supporting it. A
2019 poll by ABC News/The Washington Post asked about this:
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were “very” or “somewhat” confident that passing stricter gun-control laws would reduce
mass shootings in this country?
0% 25 75 100
Source: ABC News/The Washington Post, Sept. 2-5, 2019, among 1,003 adults
Guess
However, when asked about improving mental-health monitoring and

treatment, Republicans were much more confident that this would reduce
mass shootings, even slightly more so than Democrats: 78 percent of
Republicans said they were “very” or “somewhat” confident that this would
work, and 75 percent of Democrats agreed.
Some differences in thinking about gun control may have to do with whether
people own guns themselves.
What percentage of Republican and Democratic respondents do you think said they, or
anyone in their household, own a gun of any kind?
0% 25 75 100
Source: Morning Consult, Feb. 12-13, 2022, among 2,210 adults
Guess
Although most Americans don’t own a gun, a small share own a lot of them,
which is why the U.S. has more guns than people.
While both Democrats and Republicans support some gun-control  

measures, broad support for extensive gun control is its own constitutional
knot thanks to the Second Amendment. In April, YouGov/The Economist
asked Americans which was more important: the right of people to own guns
or protecting people from gun violence. (Respondents could also say if they
thought both were equally important.)
believe the right of people to own guns is more important than protecting people from gun
violence?
0% 25 75 100
Source: YouGov/The Economist, April 16-19, 2022, 1,500 U.S. adult citizens
Guess
While a plurality of Republicans (49 percent) said both are equally

important and a majority of Democrats (57 percent) said protecting people
from violence is more important, the difference is striking. As the country
debates how to end mass shootings like the ones that happen in the U.S.
every day, this gap may be the most meaningful of all.
Edited by Chadwick Matlin and Jennifer Mason. Art direction by Emily Scherer.
RELATED STORIES
In Red States, ‘Gun Reform’ Means Making It Easier To Buy And Carry Guns
Republicans Amplified Pro-Gun Control Protesters In Tennessee
The Hardest Part Of Red Flag Laws Isn’t Getting Them Passed
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12/5/23, 10:45 PM Where Democrats And Republicans Differ On Gun Control | FiveThirtyEight

PUBLISHED JUN. 7, 2022, AT 6:00 AM

Just How Far Apart Are The Two Parties On Gun

After what feels like a relentless sequence of high-profile mass shootings,

family members, the police or certain other officials to seek an ERPO, a  

While Democratic support remains high, Republican support drops

Another proposal that has been floated by politicians is allowing teachers to

However, when asked about improving mental-health monitoring and

Source: Morning Consult, Feb. 12-13, 2022, among 2,210 adults

While both Democrats and Republicans support some gun-control  

While a plurality of Republicans (49 percent) said both are equally

Republicans Amplified Pro-Gun Control Protesters In Tennessee

Get more FiveThirtyEight

About Nielsen Measurement

Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information

Your US State Privacy Rights  

© 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. All rights reserved.

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