Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Advanced Geotechnics
RELIABILITY BASIS of
STRUCTURAL/GEOTECHNICAL
DESIGN
JV RETIEF
1
TITLE - Key Concepts
• STRUCTURE: Organized combination of
connected parts including GEOTECHNICAL
structures designed to provide resistance and
rigidity against various actions (load bearing)
• FINAL WORD
3
1. INTRODUCTION
General Concepts
LECTURE OBJECTIVES –
• Apply reliability concepts at different levels:
• Understand underlying reliability principles of LS-D to apply properly
• Advanced application, where needed
• Advancement through research
RELIABILITY / PROBABILITY –
• Levels of reliability representation & modelling
– Design variables (based on probability models)
• CHARACTERISTIC VALUES – based on ‘specified’ information
• DESIGN VALUES – contributes (partially) to overall reliability
Elements of a structure
• Induced loadings – never completely known
• Material – “collection of defects”!
– acceptable material – “fortuitous or organised collection”
Design
• Simplified process – simple but logical model, still containing essential
elements of actual system [“seek simplicity, and distrust it”]
Reliability Analysis of
Structural Performance
Structural Systems –
Robustness
10
Theoretical Framework
Probability Reliability Design
• Interpretations • Basis: Risk • Deterministic !!
– Frequency – Probability • Framework
– Bayesian – Consequences – Reliability classes
– L states, situations
• Axioms (Annex) • Consistent proc’s
• Design variables
• Random variables • Basic variables – Classification
– Representation – Normal – Characteristic v’s
– Correlation – N-equivalent • Verification f
• Performance f – Separate {R; E}
• Function (f)
– Combinations
– Linear – Approx solutions – Partial factors
– Non-linear – Inverse pf’s
11
Probability
• Interpretations:
– Frequency:
• Statistical treatment requires sufficient quantitative data of
• ALL aspects of the function and random variables
– Bayesian
• Expresses degree of belief, including experience based judgement
• Allows for combination of various sources of information
12
Bayes Theorem
A U
• Sample space U
• Events A & B B
• Intersection:
P( A B) P( A)P( BIA) P( B)P( AIB)
Additional
• BAYES: Information
Prior : P'(A)=P(A)
P( BIA)
Posterior : P''(A)=P( AIB) P( A)
P( B)
13
REFERENCES - Selection
– Ang A H-S & Tang WH (1984). Probability Concepts in Engineering
Planning and Design, Volume II. Decision, Risk, and Reliability, John
Wiley & Sons
15
2. RELIABILITY THEORY
Elementary & Applied
• Performance function
expressed in probabilistic terms for basic variables
16
Reliability Based Performance
Probabilistic modelling of
• Resistance (R); Action effect (E)
g RE
probability density function
σE
σR
µE µR
17
Limit State Function
Performance function (g)
• Also a probabilistic function
0
g RE 0
PF ( )
-0.3
βσg g / g
g g R E
g ( R ) ( E )
2 2
0
µg X X /g 18
-0.2 1.8
EXAMPLE 0.0005
• R = N{100; 15}
0.0004
0.0002
• β = 3.33 0.0001
• PF = 0.4 x 10-3 0
-10 -5 0 5 10
0.05 0.03
0.04
0.03 0.02
0.02
0.01 0.01
0
-20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
-0.01 0
-10 10 30 50 70 90 19 110
Geometrical Representation
Dʹ = (D-µD)/σD
g1 = R – D = 0
(µR -µD)/σD
𝝁𝑹 − 𝝁𝑫
𝜷 =
(𝝈𝑹 )𝟐 +(𝝈𝑫 )𝟐 Design Point
D*
β
-(µR -µD)/σR R*
Rʹ = (R-µR)/σR
20
Semi-Probabilistic Design
Rd Ed 0
Rd R (1 R TVR )
Design values:
• Rd & Ed
– Derived from
Performance Limit Ed E (1 E TVE )
Function
X d X X
• Key concept: βT
– Replacing FS X X /g
Partial factor γX
X 1 X TVX 21
Partial Factor – Main Components
X 1 X TVX
X sensitivity factor
T target reliability
VX CoV (dispersion)
22
Resistance Partial Factor:
Characteristic Value Adjustment
• Normal Distribution
𝑿𝒌 𝟏 − 𝟏. 𝟔𝟒𝟓𝑽𝑿 𝑹𝒌 𝟏 − 𝟏. 𝟔𝟒𝟓𝑽𝑹
𝜸𝒎 = = 𝒐𝒓 𝜸𝑹𝒅 = =
𝑿𝒅 𝟏 − 𝜶𝑹 𝜷𝑽𝑿 𝑹𝒅 𝟏 − 𝜶𝑹 𝜷𝑽𝑹
• Lognormal Distribution
𝑿𝒌 𝒆𝒙𝒑(−𝟏. 𝟔𝟒𝟓 𝑽𝑿 ) 𝑹𝒌 𝒆𝒙𝒑(−𝟏. 𝟔𝟒𝟓 𝑽𝑹 )
𝜸𝒎 = = 𝒐𝒓 𝜸𝑹𝒅 = =
𝑿𝒅 𝒆𝒙𝒑(−𝜶𝑹 𝜷𝑽𝑿 ) 𝑹𝒅 𝒆𝒙𝒑(−𝜶𝑹 𝜷𝑽𝑹 )
23
Allowable/Working Stress Design
• Design Function
– At working conditions Allowable
Nominal Load
Working Stress
• Advantages
– Simple to use Rn
– Captures experience Ln
• Disadvantages
FS
– Indirect account of SAFETY
Assigned Factor
– Limited to < Experience Base >
– Cannot utilise reserve capacity
of Safety
(Based on working
– Cannot be improved of optimised experience)
24
Limit States Design & Reliability
Semi-Probabilistic Partial Factor LS-D
Rn Fd Rd 0
Ln ( i i Fk,i ) l R( f k / m ) 0
FS
Multiple Partial Factors
25
General Reliability Theory
Extended linear functions
• Multiple basic variables
• Non-normal basic variables
• Correlated basic variables
Non-linear functions
• Geometric representation
• Iterative solving algorithms
26
Reliability Modelling (F/SORM)
• Basic case: R – E = 0
• General linear performance function
– Uncorrelated basic variables
– Correlated basic variables
• Non-linear performance function
– Uncorrelated – iterative solution
– Correlated – special procedure (Ker-Fox)
• Non-normal basic variables
– Normal equivalent procedures
• Reliability-based design (inverse analysis)
• Numerical First Order Reliability method (FORM) solutions
27
General Linear Performance Function
g a0 a1 X 1 a2 X 2 ....... ai X i ..... an X n 0
g g ( xd ,1 ; xd ,2 ..... xd ,n ) 0
g g ( 1d ,1 ; 2 d ,2 ..... n d ,n ) 0
xd ,i x *
i i T i
*
i
i (1 T Vi ) *
i i i
i (1 T Vi ) *
i x / i
*
i
29
Functions of Random Variables
• Linear function; correlated variables
n
Y ai X i
i 1
n n
E(Y ) Y aiE( X i ) ai Xi
i 1 i 1
n n n
Var (Y ) E(Y Y ) 2 ai2 Var ( X i ) ai a j cov( X i ; X j )
i 1 j i i 1
n n
Var (Y ) ai a j cov( X i ; X j )
j i
30
Correlated Basic Variables
g a0 a1 X 1 a2 X 2 ....... ai X i ..... an X n
n n n n n
g ai a j i, j i j
i 1 j 1
i i 2 ai a j i , j i j
( a
i 1
) 2
i j j i
g
g
Where i , j is the correlation coefficient between X i and X j
Note sign of i through sign of ai , a j and i , j
31
Geometrical Representation
Linear function Nonlinear Function
Dʹ = (D-µD)/σD
g1 = R – D = 0 Dʹ = (D-µD)/σD
= (µR + RʹσR) - (µD + DʹσD)
(µR -µD)/σD
g1 = 0
Design Point
Design Point g2 = 0
D*
β D*
β
-(µR -µD)/σR R*
Rʹ = (R-µR)/σR
R* Rʹ = (R-µR)/σR
2 2 2
𝜇𝑅 − 𝜇𝐷 g g g
𝛽 = g2 x1 x2 ... xn
(𝜎𝑅 )2 +(𝜎𝐷 )2
x1 x2 xn 32
Non-linear Performance Function
g g ( X 1 ; X 2 ;.... X i ;.... X n ) 0
2
g g 2
g x *
i ;
2
i
X i * X i *
i g
g
g
g
i
X i *
xi* i i i ; i g
33
Numerical Algorithm to Solve for β
34
Non-linear g with Correlated Xi
• According to Ang & Tang – transformation into
uncorrelated variables required
– Transformation for each iteration to determine
design point
36
General FOSM Algorithm
37
Reliability-Based Design
• Select value for βT
X i *
i
40
Splitting of reliability level in Eurocode
Action and resistance reliability index
Reliability index
Moments
1 2
E( X ) X exp( )
2
Var ( X ) X X [exp( ) 1]
2 2 2
42
Generic Partial Factor Models
• Permanent Load G :
– Normal/Lognormal distribution
– Parameters: Mean µ = 1,05; CoV {0,05; 0,10; 0,15}
– Partial factor N ; LN
Normal G 1 E TV
Lognormal G EXP E TV
43
EV Type I (Gumbel)
fY ( y ) exp[ ( y u ) e ( y u ) ] y
FY ( y ) exp[ e ( y u ) ] y
dispersion parameter
u scale parameter
6 2 44
Generic Partial Factor Models (2)
• Variable Load Q :
– Gumbel distribution: F(y) = EXP(-EXP(y))
– Parameters:
• IMPOSED Mean µ = 0,96; CoV = 0,25
• WIND Mean µ = 0,65; CoV = 0,35
Wind sensitive CoV = 0,50
n
1,2 i ,1 i ,2
i 1
(ci ,1/2 i )
i ,1/2 (direction cosine; sensitivity factor)
g
(1 ) 2 ( 2 ) 2 .....( i ) 2 .....( n ) 2 1
Correlation between failure modes derive from common basic
variables, as the sum of the product of the respective sensitivity
factors
46
3. BASIS of STRUCTURAL DESIGN
Overview
47
Risk-Based Metric for Semi-
Probabilistic Design
• Symbolic expressions for Risk (Ri) (Expected Outcome)
– Function of Probability of failure (PF) and
– Consequences (Co) for
– Selected scenarios (Sc)
Ri PF Co{Sc}
Reliability Framework
PF P{g ( X i ) 0} ( )
(Reliability Management)
Design verification • Consequences (Co)
(Quantitative) – {Consequence Classes}
• Based on function g(Xi) • Scenarios (Sc)
– {Design Situations} 48
BoSD – Design Management
& Verification
1.1 Conceptual basis:
49
Guidelines of BoSD Application
Meta-Standard considerations – Context
– Function & ownership:
• Regulatory Professional
– Reference base & background:
• SANS 10160 Eurocode
Basis-of-Design requirements
– General requirements Management
• Performance levels & design approach to verify compliance
52
Classification of Function
• Primary function in design:
– Action combination schemes for limit states
• Integral function:
– Imbedded reliability framework
• Auxiliary function:
– Reliability management;
– Design by testing;
– Localised failure / robustness;
– Serviceability criteria
53
Structural (/) Reliability Issues
ISSUE ASSESSMENT Basis-of-Design
Scope of application Experience base for class Define scope of code
of structures of importance • Take care beyond scope
Structural concept as selected • Competently selected Suitable competence
/ designed stipulated as pre-requisite
Design on element basis: Element/system relation Treated indirectly:
• Reliability based on • f{structural concept} • Competence; concept;
performance of system • Advanced reliability analysis; (robustness)
Performance level(s) Calibration of procedures Select target reliability
• Key function of reliability- • To set reliability levels • Differentiated LS’s
based design • Approximate; generic • Structural Rel-Classes
Actual/modelled (notional) • Failure @ execution Reliability not absolute
reliability from experience • Use back calibration • Residual systematic
• Significantly lower • Relative reliability deviation of reliability
• Human gross error • During design • Quality management
significant cause • During execution • Robustness
requirement
54
Multiple Functions of BoSD
BASIS of STRUCTURAL DESIGN
- Requirements – Competence & Experience
GENERAL - Reliability framework – Limit states & Design situations
- Verification procedures – Quantitative design expressions
ACTIONS RESISTANCE
Reliability Provisions Material-Independent Provisions
Actions
Structural Mechanics Models for Characteristic Values
Resistance
Structural Mechanics Models for Characteristic Values
Selected Input
Judgement
Based
61
Eurocode Options vs SA Procedures
• Alternative Eurocode options for action combinations: B – Dual scheme;
– C – Finnish interpretation
• Compared to SABS 0160 Scheme - E
62
Eurocode Expressions: Single (E 6.10);
Dual (E 6.10 a&b) & (a-Mod)
2.4
2.4
Expression 6.10
2.0
2.0
Expression 6.10 (a) 6.10 (b)
GSF k
GSFk
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.6
6.10(a) Modified
1.4
2.4
2.4
4 (e) 4 (f)
2.0 2.0
Expression 6.10 (a) 6.10 (b)
GSFk
GSFk
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.6
6.10(a) Modified
1.4
EN 1991 Actions
Structural Mechanics Models for Characteristic Values
EN 199X Resistance
Structural Mechanics Models for Characteristic Values
Actions
EN 1997 Geotechnical design
&
Resistance EN 1998 Earthquake resistance & seismic design
69
PART 1
Basis of Structural Design
Partial factor limit states design procedures for
ACTIONS
RESISTANCE according to Materials-Based Standards
71
Assessing Eurocode as Reference
for SA Loading Code
SANS 10160
EUROCODE Serves as professional code of practice to
Serves as reference European Standard for discharge responsibility of designer towards
implementation by Member States as: public and clients
• Harmonised MS EN Standard • No institutional / official sanction or
sponsorship & resources
– Adapted to accommodate Member State – Except for publication as industry standard
safety & regulatory responsibility
• Standard therefore needs to be optimised in
• To serve the European political & trade terms of development & scope of
objectives application
– Providing for comprehensive use – For use in general practice – selected scope
– Across wide range of institutional & natural – With minimum resources for development
conditions
73
EN 1990 SANS 10160-1
• Scope of application
– EN 1990: General Annex A1 Buildings;
• A2 Bridges
– SANS 10160-1: Buildings
• Compact layout – deleted alternative & advanced concepts
• Simplified procedures as required for regular practice/buildings
• Reference reliability
– Default Eurocode value βt = 3,8
– Implicitly NDP, selected by Member States
– From SABS 0160:1989 Maintain βt = 3,0
• Reliability Classes (Reference RC2)
– EN 1990: 3 classes
• EN 1992-1-1 provides for RC2
– SANS 10160-1: 4 classes
• EN RC2 split into RC2 & RC3 (at ~ 4/5 storey buildings)
– Also for other classification systems: Quality; Robustness; etc
74
Eurocode Parts relevant to SANS 10160
STRUCTURAL FIRE
EN 1992 Concrete structures General; buildings Fire design Concrete Bridges Liquid retaining
EN 1993 Steel structures General ; buildings Joints Shells Crane support
BRIDGES
Plated I Plated II Cold formed Stainless S Fire design Steel Bridges Silos Tanks Towers & masts
Toughness Tension High strength Fatigue Pipelines Chimneyg Piling
EN 1994 Composite General; buildings Fire design Composite Bridges
EN 1995 Timber General, buildings Fire design Timber bridges
EN 1996 Masonry General Execution Simplified Fire design
EN 1997 Geotechnical design General rules
Investigation & testing
EN 1998 Earthquake General rules, actions
resistance Tower, mast,
Strengthening & repair Bridges Silos, tanks, pipes
chimney
Foundations, retaining
EN 1999 Aluminium Alloy General rules Shells
Fire design
Fatigue Sheeting
75
Outline of SANS 10160
– Relation to Eurocode Parts
SANS 10160 Parts Reference Eurocode Part
PART TITLE PART TITLE
1 Basis of structural design EN 1990 Basis of Structural Design
–Accidental situations EN 1991-1-7 Accidental actions: Impact & explosions
Updated PART 1
New Basis of Structural Design
77
BoSD Roots for SANS 10160-5
EUROCODE SOUTH AFRICA
• ISO 2394 General • ISO/SANS 2394
principles on reliability – International harmonisation
78
Outline of Part 1 – General
• Scope of application
– Defining structures: BUILDINGS & SIMILAR INDUSTRIAL
– Included & excluded actions
• Notably actions during FIRE not provided for (yet) refer to materials
standards
– Associated standards – Materials-based design standards
• Requirements:
– General; Robustness; Reliability management;
– Design life; Durability; Quality management
• Principles of LSD: General specification of
– Limit states {ULS; SLS};
– Actions {classification; characteristic values};
– Material & product properties; Geometry;
– Geotechnical (refer to Part 5)
79
Outline (Part 1) – Design Verification
• Combination values for actions
– Important deviation from Eurocode
• Maintain SABS 0160 Turkstra approach
85
Limit States & Design Situations
Limit State Design Situation
Geotechnical (GEO)
Equilibrium (EQU)
Transient Execution
Serviceability LS Irreversible
Reversible
89
Consequences: SA & Eurocode
Class SANS 10160-1 EN 1990 Class
Low loss of life, economic, Low for loss of human life, and
RC1 social; economic, social or RC1
Small environmental environmental small or negligible
Moderate loss of life,
economic, social
RC2
Considerable Medium for loss of human life,
environmental economic, social or RC2
High loss of human life, Environmental considerable
RC3 Very great economic,
social, environmental
Post-disaster function / High for loss of human life, or
RC4 beyond the boundaries economic, social or RC3
Environmental very great
SANS 10100-5 should provide for both RC2 & RC3 (to EC7-1), but in a
differentiated manner (to SANS 10160-1) 90
Reliability Differentiation
Accidental
Reliability
class
t Consequence
Seismic
class
Geotech
Category
Crane Class
class
CC1
RC1 2,5 low risk I 1 C1
group
Reference CC2
RC2 3,0 II 2 C2
class medium risk
CC3
RC3 3,5 III 3 C3
high risk
CC4
RC4 4,0 very high IV 4 C4
risk
91
Reliability & Related Classification
t
Accidental Seismic class Geotech
Consequence Class (Public safety) Category
Small structure; no
Single occupancy
RC1 2,5 Minor (agriculture) stability or
≤ 3 storeys
movement
Conventional
Residential, office etc;
RC2 3,0 Ordinary structure /
≤ 4 storeys
foundation
Important Ground / structure
Residential, office etc;
RC3 3,5 (schools; require
5 – 15 storeys
assembly) geotechnical input
Vital
Public in large # ; Large; unusual;
RC4 4,0 (hospital; fire;
stadia > 5 000 complex; risk;
power)
92
Consequence Classes
(Local Failure – Robustness)
Consequence
Building type and occupancy
Class
CC1 Single occupancy residential buildings ≤ 3 storeys.
low risk group Agricultural buildings. Buildings which people rarely enter.
95
Inspection Levels (SANS)
Minimum recommended
Inspection Level Characteristics requirements for inspection
levels during execution
IL1
Basic inspection Self inspection
relating to RC1
IL3
Extended inspection Third party inspection
relating to RC3
96
Characteristic Values
Basic Variable General Specification Comments
ACTIONS
Permanent Nominal dimensions and mean unit Expected (average) value
masses
- large variability - not specified Principle not applied for
limited scope of structures
Variable Probability of 0,02 per annum Expected (average, mean)
maximum value, 50 years
- combination - arbitrary-point-in-time value Expected value at any time,
(ψQk) based on Turkstra rule
Accidental Specified for individual situations, Not expected during design
projects life
Fatigue According to materials standards Generally average fatigue
actions
Geotechnical According to EN 1997-1 Cautious estimate of expected
Geotechnical design – General values
97
Characteristic Values (II)
Basic
General Specification Comments
Variable
99
Action Combination Scheme
Fundamental Combination:
j 1
G, j Gk , j " " Q ,1Qk ,1 " "
i 1
i Qk ,i
Q ,i " " Ad
Permanent LeadingVariable CombinedVariable Accidental
101
Action Combination Scheme
• STR Partial factors {1,2; 1,6} Same as SABS 0160 scheme
1,2 G
j 1
k,j " " 1,6(1,3) Qk ,1 " " 1,6
i 1
i Qk ,i
• EN 1990
– Similar to: E-6.10(a)&(b) ~ {1,15; 1,5} & {1,35; 1,05}
– E-6.10 {1,35; 1,5} Unacceptable
102
Partial Action Factors
STR STR-P
Un-F F Un-F F
PERMANENT ACTIONS
Self-weight 1,2 0,9 1,35 -
Fluids (physical control of maximum level) 1,2 0 1,35 0
Imposed deformations due to pre-stressing 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0
Other imposed permanent deformations
1,2 - 1,2 -
(e.g. settlement)
VARIABLE ACTIONS
Imposed loads: floors and roofs, balustrades 1,6 0 1,0 0
Wind action 1,3/1,5 0 1,0 0
Imposed variable deformation (e.g. temperature) 1,6 1,0 0
Overhead travelling cranes, machinery 1,6 0 1,0 0
Loads from fluids that vary with time. 1,6 0 1,0 0
Other variable loads not listed 1,6 0 1,0 0
103
Combination Factors
Specific use ψ
Domestic and residential areas;
Public areas; Shopping areas.
0,3
Light industrial use 0,5
Industrial use 0,6
Storage areas 0,8
Traffic and parking areas for vehicles ≤ 25 kN 0,8
Traffic and parking areas for vehicles 25 – 160 kN 0,3
Fork lifts 0,6
Wind – Accompanying/SLS-Reversible 0/0,3
104
Accidental (ACC) & Seismic (SEIS)
• General considerations
– Exceptional situation – not expected during life
– Accept damage, but not out of proportion with cause
• Design value of Accidental (Ad) & Seismic (AEd)
actions:
– Directly specified by taking CONSEQUENCES into account
• Risk = f {reliability; consequences}
– Permanent action @ characteristic value
– Variable action @ point-in-time value
– Resistance unfactored (characteristic i.e. somewhat
conservative),
• Provided sufficient ductility can be maintained
105
Accidental Combination
• General expression (see Table for partial factors)
j 1
G, j Gk, j " " Ad " "
i 1
Q, i i Qk, i
• Practical expression
G
j 1
k, j " " Ad " "
i 1
i Qk, i
107
SLS Combination Scheme
1,1G
j 1
k,j " "
i 1
i Qk ,i
108
Criteria – Irreversible SLS
Deformation Effect Criterion
Damage at supports Span/300-
Span/500 to
Medial deflection of Partition damage Span/300
floors Partition isolated from floor
10 mm
(for span/height <3,5)
10 to 15 mm
Damage at supports Span/300
Medial deflection of
Partition damage – isolated
roofs or roof 10 – 15 mm
(for span/height<3,5)
members
Roof covering damage Span/250 – Span/125
Terminal deflection of Damage at supports Span/100
non-cantilever
horizontal members Partition damage Span/500
112
C. Reliability-based Enhancement
The level of structural performance can be raised by:
• Modifying standardised normative reliability framework
– To reflect specific properties of specific structure/class of structures
– To derive specific design parameters which complies with reliability levels
Such elaborate process may generally not be justified for a single structure
– May be the only way in which Reliability Classes 3 & 4 structures can be treated
– Can also be devised for a class of structure in which the design office specialises
113
C. Advanced: Generic Process
The generic process should consist of the following steps,
Which should include proper justification, substantiation :
• Reliability levels: Adjusting reference and differentiated reliability levels
as based on the application of Risk Assessment procedures
114
Quality Management
• QM ( Reliability): Strictly outside scope of design:
– Structural performance is closely related to limiting
• Gross & human error:
– Therefore proper QM measures are most effective in improving
performance
• Implementation by Eurocode
118
Sample of Standards related to BoSD
119
Classification of Standards Relevant
to BoSD
SEMI-PROBABILISTIC
STANDARD
ORGANIZATION
RISK RELIABILITY COMMENTS
General Operational
Pre-normative /
JCSS RAE PM-Code
Model
120
ISO 2394 – Central Role
ISO 2394 General Principles on Reliability for Structures
• Leading international standard: Norm for concepts of structural reliability
• Four Editions since 1973: Evolution of these concepts
Safety Levels from
– 1973: Semi-probabilistic verification: R* ≥ S* Cost Optimization
• Expressed in terms of partial factor & characteristic value {γm; Xk}
Ri PF Co{Sc}
Reliability Framework
PF P{g ( X i ) 0} ( )
(Reliability Management)
Design verification • Consequences (Co)
(Quantitative) – {Consequence Classes}
• Based on function g(Xi) • Scenarios (Sc)
– {Design Situations}122
International Harmonization
ISO 22111 Bases of Structural Design – General Requirements
• Objectives: Convert reliability principles to operational design, using
Semi-probabilistic partial factors LS-D
– Provide common basis for operational design
– Serve as reference for standards importing countries
123
ISO 2394:2015 Annex D
Reliability of Geotechnical Structures
ISO 2394 Provision for Geotechnical Structures Further elaboration in Annex D (in press)
• Clause 6 Uncertainty Representation & Enhance consistency between geotechnical &
Modelling structural practice
– Predominantly soil properties & modelling • Reliability basis for geotechnical design
• Annex D: • Reliability principles of ISO 2394
– Sources & representation • Uncertainty representation
– Multivariate data
• Multivariate data characterization
– Model factor characterization
– Implementation
• Model uncertainty
• Semi-probabilistic geotechnical design
• Direct probabilistic based geotechnical design
124
6. Complementary Topics
• Target reliability
125
6.1 Target Reliability
• Reliability expressed i.t.o. PF expressed as Target
Reliability 𝜷𝑻 = 𝚽 −𝟏 (𝑷𝑭 )
– EXAMPLE: PF = 10-3 𝛽𝑇 = 3,0; PF = 10-4 𝛽𝑇 = 3,8
– Reference performance level
126
Reference Reliability
• Level of structural performance is set by
– The selection of a reference target reliability (βt) Deterministic Probabilistic Methods
• For selected conditions
– Class of buildings, practice (quality control), etc – Methods
Standard
– Ductile failure (important motivation for LS-D)
– On which procedures are based (see below again)
• Judgement based procedures
• Reliability based calibration
127
Target Reliability for South Africa
• South Africa / Buildings βt = 3,0
– From SANS 10160-1
• Maintained from SABS 0160:1989
– Based on extensive calibration by Milford
– Consistent with practice in USA; Canada (amongst others)
– Allowable by Eurocode (although deviating from default)
– Defendable from ISO 2394 & JCSS PMC
• Interpretation:
See comparison:
128
JCSS Target Reliability 𝜷𝑻 /𝐏𝐅 (y-1)
Coarse Classification COST : Total (incl. failure) / Constr.
(typical logarithmic MINOR : 2 (agricultural, silos, masts)
scale of risk MODERATE : 2 – 5 (office, apartment)
classification) LARGE : 5 – 10 (high-rise, hospital)
> 10 : Risk-based cost/benefit (abort?)
• Cost optimisation:
– 𝛽𝑇 {safety; failure} │ (uncertainties)
137
Limit State / Design Situation 𝜷𝑻
Hierarchy
LIMIT STATE DESIGN SITUATION EXAMPLE & COMMENT 𝜷𝑻
Serviceability Long-term; Creep; consolidation 0
appearance
Reversible Dependent on period 0 – 1,5
Irreversible Requiring repair 1,5 – 2
Ultimate Transient Adjusted Q; Consequences 3,0*
Persistent Reference case: 50y; ductile 3,0
Standard structure Brittle – sudden failure 4,0
Increasing (RC-2) & failure
consequences Connections – low cost 4,5
Severity
Accidental Risk < Persistent situation > 3,0
- Seismic PF /10; limited failure
- Fire Rational / prescriptive
- Extreme Q e.g. Wind
- Project specific e.g. Impact Risk optimum
138
Robustness Sensitivity of structure
Critical Assessment of 𝜷𝑻 (2)
• Serving as common basis for all elements of
structural design
– Actions & effects; structural analysis
– Materials based resistance: inter-comparison;
composite; geotechnical/foundations
• Consideration of harmonisation:
– Adjust standard procedures to local conditions
(Eurocode NDP’s)
• Uncorrelated :
– Series – cumulative failure PF = PFi ;
– Parallel – cumulative reliability PF = 1 - (1−PFi)
P P P
Δ Δ Δ
Ductile Brittle Intermediate 146
Ductility – Reliability Treatment
Element based design
– Not captured by generic partial material factors
– In principle to be captured by Model Partial Factor, which is not
(yet) done systematically in materials standards
• Indirectly done: Detailing (concrete; connections); section classification
(steel)
– Basis-of-design guidance – only given at general level
148
Nature of Structural Damage/Failure (2)
Matousek/Schneider:
• Actual causes –
– Ignorance, carelessness, negligence (37%)
– Insufficient knowledge (27%)
– Underestimating influences (14%);
– Forgetfulness, errors, mistakes (10%); unjustifiably trusting
others (6%)
– Objectively unknown influences (6%)
1. Hazard recognition
– Objectively known/unknown
– Subjectively recognised/not
– Taken into account/ignored
2. Applying measures
– Suitable/unsuitable
– Correctly applied/incorrectly
3. Residual risk
– Consciously accepted 10% – 15%
– Human error (unknown; not recognised; ignored; etc.) 90% – 85%
150
Hazard Recognition; Treatment;
Acceptance – COUNTER MEASURES
(Schneider)
1. Hazard recognition
– Objectively known/unknown – RESEARCH, INVESTIGATION, EXPERIENCE
– Subjectively recognised/not – BASIC EDUCATION
– Taken into account/ignored – RESPONSIBILITY ALLOCATION
2. Applying measures
– Suitable/unsuitable – EXPERT KNOWLEDGE IMPROVEMENT
– Correctly applied/incorrectly – CONTROL MEASURES
3. Residual risk
– Consciously accepted 10% – 15%
– Human error (unknown; not recognised; ignored; etc.) 90% – 85%
• QUALITY MANAGEMENT / ASSURANCE
151
Quality Management & Assurance
• QM/QA is formally treated in Basis-of-Design
– Management:
• Identification of reliability aspects as f{quality}
– Assurance:
• Specific actions – Quality plan, documentation
– Control:
• Collection of information to prove compliance to criteria
155
6.4 GUIDANCE on APPLICATION
• Principles of reliability are deeply imbedded in BoSD
– Only appearing to be nominally treated explicitly (*)
– Mostly masked as judgement-based stipulation
As stipulated in Part 1
157
Assessment per Clause
Part 1 TOPIC DISCUSSION
1 SCOPE 1. Does the project fully / sufficiently comply with
the scope to benefit from its experience base?
2. If not, where does it deviate; what measures?
4 REQUIREMENTS Design base only valid under strict conditions:
1. Competence of designer/team – judgement basis
2. Related construction experience – unknown at
design, but need to be ensured
3. Use and maintenance by owner
4.4 INTEGRITY & Additional performance level explicitly treated
ROBUSTNESS 1. Consequences of failure of particular importance
2. Higher reliability classes and/or non-standard
4.5 RELIABILITY Requirement where all aspects influencing
MANAGEMENT performance are integrated:
1. Compliance conditional on requirements; RC2
2. Adjustment required for any deviation
158
Assessment per Clause (2)
Part 1 TOPIC DISCUSSION
4.8 QUALITY Not part of design procedure, but vital to structural
MANAGEMENT performance. Consider Q-aspects of Reliability:
1. QM provides verification of compliance with
requirements
2. QA provides planning for required actions
3. QC collection of information
5 PRINCIPLES LS-D Identification of design situations sufficiently severe &
varied for foreseen conditions to be provided for:
1. LS & design situations represent range of
performance levels
2. Set of cases defined for standard RC2
3. For {Actions(combinations); Resistance(fm)}
7; 8 ULS; SLS Design verification procedures for each design situation
159
Reliability Management
• Differential reliability classes based on assumed
failure consequences (Risk principle)
– Generic consequences; illustrated by example
buildings
• Design measures
– Actions : Adjust partial factors x KF
• Maintain QM levels
– Resistance: Adjust QM levels
• In agreement with sound engineering practice
160
Extended Design for Higher RC’s
Accidental Seismic class Geotechnical
RC t QA
consequence class (public safety) category
Small structure; no
Single occupancy Minor
RC1 2,5 Basic stability or
≤ 3 storeys (agriculture)
movement
Residential, office Conventional
RC2 3,0 Normal etc. Ordinary structure /
≤ 4 storeys foundation
Residential, office Important Ground / structure
RC3 3,5 Extended etc. (schools; require geotechnical
5 – 15 storeys assembly) input
Public in large Vital Large; unusual;
RC4 4,0 Regulated numbers (hospital; fire; complex; abnormal
Stadia > 5 000 power) risk
161
Categorisation of
CONSEQUENCE CLASSES
CC BUILDING TYPE & OCCUPANCY
CC1 a) Single occupancy residential buildings not exceeding 3 storeys
b) Agricultural buildings
c) Buildings which people rarely enter, < 1,5 times height of building with people
CC2 a) Buildings < 5 storeys: residential occupancies, apartments, hotels, offices
b) Industrial buildings not exceeding 3 storeys
c) Retailing premises not exceeding 3 storeys < 1000 m2 floor area in each storey
d) Educational buildings not exceeding 2 storeys
e) Public buildings not exceeding 2 storeys not exceeding 2000 m2 in each storey
CC3 a) Hotels, flats, apartments, residential buildings, office buildings, 4 - 15 storeys
b) Retailing premises with more 4 – 15 storeys
c) Educational buildings exceeding 3 – 15 storeys
d) Hospitals not exceeding 3 storeys
e) Public buildings with floor areas 2000 m2 - 5000 m2 in each storey
f)Stadiums accommodating less than 5000 spectators
CC4 a) All CC2 and CC3 buildings exceeding limits on area, or number of storeys or both
b) All buildings to which members of the public are admitted in significant numbers
c) Stadiums accommodating more than 5000 spectators 162
Resistance: Examples
Examples of the reliability
treatment of resistance:
• SANS 10160-5:2011
Basis for Geotechnical
Design and Actions