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The Seaford rail (lower Onkaparinga River) occur greater than that shown on the map, but
catchment includes parts of the suburbs of Old more or less frequently.
Noarlunga, Port Noarlunga, Port Noarlunga
South, Seaford, Seaford Meadows, Seaford
One in twenty (1:20 ARI) or 5% AEP flood
Heights and Seaford Rise. The catchment of the The 1:20 year flood is another recognised
Onkaparinga River extends upwards into the standard measure of a large flood expected to
Mount Lofty Ranges up to Birdwood. This study occur, on average, once every 20 years, or
focusses on the portion of the catchment and alternatively, there is a 5% chance of this flood
floodplain from Old Noarlunga and downstream. occurring in any year. While still an exceptional
event, there is a higher chance of this flood
The Seaford rail (lower Onkaparinga River) flood
event occurring than the 1:100 year flood. Like
plain mapping study shows the one in one
the 1:100 year flood, flooding is irregular and we
hundred (1:100) year and one in twenty (1:20) cannot predict the likelihood of when and how
year floodplain for the major watercourses of the
often a flood will occur, if in fact, if it will occur at
Seaford rail (lower Onkaparinga River)
all. It is also possible that flooding may occur
catchment. The maps reflect the estimated
less than or greater than that shown on the map,
extent and behaviour of potential floods arising
but less frequently.
in the Seaford rail (lower Onkaparinga River)
catchment. What is a floodplain map?
This will assist property owners, government A floodplain map shows the depth of water over
and council to better prepare for and manage a certain area in a given rainfall event. The
floods. floodplain map provides us with a guide for
future urban development and assists planning
What is a floodplain? to reduce and manage flood risk. It predicts the
A floodplain is an area of land subject to flooding extent of flooding under a given set of conditions
from creeks. Land along creeks is typically liable using the technology available. The map does
to flooding. The floodplain can extend for a not affect the level of flooding over an area or
considerable distance either side of creeklines. property.
One in one hundred (1:100 ARI) or 1% AEP How were the maps created?
flood We generated the maps using computer
The 1:100 year flood is an internationally modelling. This predicts how water from a series
recognised statistical measure of extraordinary of storms in rural and urban catchments will
flooding expected to occur, on average, once affect the local creek system, based on the likely
every 100 years. The frequency (regularity) of volume of water and the ground level across the
such a flood is expressed either as the average catchment.
recurrence interval (ARI) or likelihood per year
Data and models
or years, or also as the percentage "chance" of
such a flood occurring or the Annual The map detail is based on survey, flow, rainfall
Exceedence Probability (AEP). A 1:100 average and computer modelling (as at December 2010).
recurrence interval flood has a 1 % chance of Wherever possible, the modelling is compared
occurring in any year. As an alternative with actual flow and rainfall records from
example, statistically, a 1:1 ARI event has a historical events to confirm reliability of the
100% chance of occurring in any year. model. However in many areas we do not have
this level of historical information.
However, rainfall and flooding is irregular and
It is important to note that there are limitations
we cannot predict the likelihood of when and
and assumptions associated with the data and
how often a flood will occur, if in fact, if it will
the models. The extent of the flood shown on
occur at all. It is also possible that flooding may
Seaford rail (lower Onkaparinga River)
floodplain mapping project
this map cannot be regarded as exact fences, landscaping and buildings, and so care
predictions. should still be taken.
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