STORM SURGE INUNDATION ASSESSMENT IN POBLACION LAWAAN, EASTERN SAMAR

USING GIS

Abstract

The Philippines is one of the countries most vulnerable to typhoons and storm surges.
Recent years have seen an increase in storm surges in the country's coastal areas have
resulted in massive economic losses and human casualties, particularly in rural areas near
the coast. Knowing the inundation range and water depth of storm surges at various
typhoon intensities could help with pre-disaster risk assessment and evacuation planning, as
well as decision support for responding to storm surges. As an example, consider the town
of Lawaan in the province of Eastern Samar. To determine the different typhoon intensities
that could cause various storm surge levels, parameters such as typhoon tracks, the radius
of maximum wind speed, astronomical tide, and upstream flood runoff will be used. Using
these parameters, numerical simulations and GIS mapping will investigate the inundation
range and water depth distribution of the previous five typhoons and storm surges that
passed through Lawaan, Eastern Samar. The researcher will consider the impact of seawall
collapse under five different intensity scenarios. The proposed method is simple to
implement and serves as an effective tool for decision-making in storm surge disaster risk
reduction practices.

Keywords: Eastern Samar, Intensity scenarios; Inundation simulation; Lawaan, Typhoon-

induced storm surge; Philippines
Chapter I: Introduction

Background of the Study

The Philippines is one of the few countries that experience multiple typhoons in a single
year, resulting in storm surge. Approximately 25 cyclones are named each year; however,
only 16 hurricanes strike the country, with nine classified as major typhoons (Masters, J.,
2021). A storm surge is an abnormal increase in water caused by a storm that exceeds the
astronomical tide. The presence of the battery is attributed to the change in water level.
Because storm surge is a variation in water levels, it lacks a reference level. Storm surge
flooding could last for several hours, depending on the size and track of the hurricane. The
storm passes and then dissipates. Water level heights during a hurricane can reach 20 feet
or more above average sea level. A hurricane's storm surge, with powerful waves on top,
can cause catastrophic damage. The precise height of a storm surge is difficult to predict
because it is affected by so many variables. The storm's strength, forward velocity, distance,
angle of approach to the coast, pressure, and the shape of the coastline all have an impact.
Storm surges and massive battering waves can cause loss of life, the devastation of homes,
beach erosion, and damage to roads and bridges along the coast. The storm surge will travel
many miles inland (National Hurricane Center- NOAA).

The lack of a long-lasting sea wall in the country's coastal areas increases the risk of storm
surge. The government's focus on storm surge disasters has shifted from disaster loss
reduction to disaster risk mitigation. As a result, research on storm surge risk has gotten
much attention (Shi et al., 2019). The goal of storm surge risk assessment is to estimate the
risk level of storm surges in a specific region using deterministic numerical simulation in
conjunction with mapping and designed probabilistic storm surge scenarios (Wang et al.,
2018). The calculation of storm surge under different storm intensity scenarios is an
essential part of storm surge risk assessment. Lawaan is a coastal town on the Lawaan Bay,
facing the Leyte Gulf. Water flows directly to Lawaan from five rivers and five creeks.
Lawaan is vulnerable to various hydro-meteorological, geologic, and climate hazards. As a
result, planning for hazards such as storm surge, flood, and tsunami must be considered
(Lawaan MDRRMO). Because of its location, the municipality is vulnerable to typhoons and
storm surge events. The findings are intended to contribute to the quantitative assessment
methodology and the development of mapping storm surge hazards and affected areas of
the province's coastal places.

Statement of the Problem

Storm surge is typically caused by a rapid rise in sea level during a typhoon. Because of a
lack of storm surge barriers and flood control walls surrounding the municipality's coastline,
Lawaan's coastal areas are always affected whenever a storm surge occurs. Fishers provide
the majority of the town's income; however, whenever a storm surge occurs, some of the
fisherman's motorboats are destroyed, rendering them unable to do their jobs. Storm surge
forces those living near the coastline and river bunks to evacuate, eliminating some of the
parts of houses it meets. To obtain all the essential knowledge, data, and information; the
research sought to answer the crucial questions as follow:

1. What is the extent of the previous five storm surge in Lawaan Eastern Samar
specifically in their Poblacion barangays?
2. How does the local government unit and its agencies observe and measure the
storm surge data in the Poblacion barangays?
3. What is the land elevation of the Poblacion barangays near the coastline?
4. What are the at risks areas in Lawaan Eastern Samar Poblacion barangay in terms of
a 10 meter, 30 meter, 60 meter, and 90 meter exposure of rising sea level during a
storm surge?

Objectives of the Study

This propose research will determine the extent of storm surge inundation in Lawaan
Eastern Samar Poblacion barangays in terms of storm surge distance from the coastline to
the Poblacion barangays.

Specific Objective

1. Using a digital elevation model, provide a map of the elevation of the Poblacion
barangays.
2. Determine the level and history of the previous five storm surges in the locality.
3. Using the Quantum Geographic Information System, this study aims to provide a
map of vulnerable areas in terms of 10 meters to 90 meters of rising sea level during
a storm surge.
4. The study's goal is to map out built-up areas vulnerable to storm surge.
a. A 10-meter distance
b. A 30-meter exposure
c. 60-meter range
d. 90-meter exposition

Significance of the Study

The study's significance is to provide knowledge to the residents of the aforementioned

barangays and to assist them in some way when a storm surge warning is issued.

The study may also help the LGU of Lawaan Eastern Samar understand how to respond in
the event of a storm surge. The research will yield valuable information that will be useful in
future projects.

The study may also be of assistance to other students or researchers studying the same
topic, and it may be used as a reference for a larger study or project. This may assist
MDRRMO in conducting storm surge awareness trainings and seminars for the municipality.

Scope and Delamination of the Study

The study focuses on the Población of Lawaan, which is made up of ten barangays. The
digital elevation model will be created without regard to any other specific goal. The
distance of the storm surge is taken into account during the buffering process. Buffing is
taking place between 10 and 90 meters from the shore. The land cover will be determined
by the built-up exposure, whether residential, commercial, government buildings, or
industrial.

Chapter II: Review of Related Literature and Studies

This chapter includes the different literatures and researchers gathered after a thorough
search done by the proponent. This covers the different related literatures and studies that
will guide the readers understand the main purpose of this research. This also serves as the
foundation of this research.

General Literature

Storm surge is primarily caused by strong winds in a hurricane or tropical storm. According
to PAGASA the low storm pressure makes only a minor contribution. The wind circulation
around the hurricane's eye reaches the ocean's surface and creates a vertical circulation.
Storms generate strong winds that push the water into the shore, potentially resulting in
flooding. Storm surges are therefore extremely dangerous for coastal areas (National
Geographic Encyclopedia Entry). The greatest surge appears to occur near the "maximum
wind radius," or the location of the hurricane's strongest winds (National Weather Service).

Because of its long coastlines, the Philippines, as a littoral country, is one of the countries
most vulnerable to the dangers posed by a storm surge. Storm surges are most likely to hit
areas near the coast. People a few kilometers away may also be affected, depending on the
elevation of their location (NDRRMC, 2021). Typhoon Haiyan locally known as Yolanda was
the most powerful storm surge to strike the Philippines in modern history (Naranjo, A.,
2017). The damage caused by Super Typhoon Yolanda's storm surge had a long-lasting
impact not only on the residents of Leyte, but on every Filipino who saw the storm surge on
television (Luma-Ang, C., 2019).
General Studies

In a study conducted by Hubbert (1999). They proposed an alternate solution is to handle a

shifting boundary of the land-water interface with flooding in land grid cells as sea levels rise
on the coast due to rising tides or storm surges, and drainage as the water recedes. This
method is the most appropriate for high resolution forecasting or flood level analysis,
coastal planning and engineering applications where information on flood levels and flood
range arc is needed at relatively high horizontal resolution (Hubbert, G., et al., 1999). An
increasing concern about anthropogenic climate change has given rise to a greater
understanding of the need for impact studies in potentially vulnerable coastal regions.
Storm surge inundation mode ls arc and l-idea tool to fix this problem. The effects of an
average sea level rise and potential improvements to the frequency and severity of extreme
storm surges are important factors. In terms of worst-case flooding scenarios, storm surge
inundation models can be used to investigate the effects of future changes and can provide
a framework for formulating mitigation strategies. (Hubbert, G., et al.,1999)

The National Weather Service (NWS) uses the storm surge model, Shore, Lake, and Overland
Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH), in providing storm surge guidance. The National Hurricane
Center (NHC) runs SLOSH to estimate real-time storm surges while a hurricane is
threatening. The model is used along the U.S. coasts of the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico;
Oahu, Hawaii; Puerto Rico; and the Virgin Islands for 38 separate coastal areas, called
basins. SLOSH is also used to construct simulation studies to support the Federal Emergency
Management Agency (FEMA), the U.S., in the "hazard analysis" section of hurricane
evacuation preparation. Army Mechanics Corps, and state and local emergency managers.
To provide manageable planning data sets, two composite products are made, Maximum
Water Envelopes (MEOW) and Maximum MEOWs (MOM). By comprising an ensemble of
SLOSH forecasts, the Probabilistic Storm Surge model (P-surge) overcomes the limitations of
a single deterministic SLOSH storm surge prediction. Based on the NHC forecast and past
errors associated with NHC forecasts, the members of the ensemble differ in speed,
direction, strength, and scale. When the NHC issues a hurricane watch for the Atlantic or
Gulf coasts, P-surge is encouraged to fly. SLOSH is used to simulate storm surges from
extratropical cyclones in the Extratropical Storm Surge (ET Surge) model.The ET surge model
utilizes surface wind and pressures generated as driving forces by the Global Forecast
System (GFS) model of NWS (Glahn, B., et al., 2017).

A study by Peng et al., suggests a three-dimensional storm surge model is used to research
the asymmetry of tropical cyclone-induced maximum coastal sea level rise (positive surge)
and fall (negative surge). The negative surge caused by offshore winds is found to be more
susceptible to changes in wind speed and direction than the positive surge from onshore
winds (Peng, M., et al.). As a consequence, because there is variability in tropical storm wind
predictions, negative surges are generally more difficult to predict than positive surges. In
shallow water areas, the asymmetry of negative and positive surges under parametric wind
force is clearer (Peng, M., et al.). With decreasing storm translation speed, the surge
asymmetry increases for tropical cyclones with fixed central pressure. A weaker tropical
cyclone is expected to achieve a higher AI (asymmetry index) value for those with the same
translation speed, although its induced maximum surge and fall are smaller. The relationship
between central pressure and AI is heterogeneous with fixed RMW (radius of maximum
wind) and depends on the RMW value. The wind inflow angle of tropical cyclones can also
cause surge asymmetry. To illustrate the surge asymmetry, a collection of idealized cases as
well as two historic tropical cyclones are used (Peng, M., et al.,).

Conceptual Framework

The concept of the study is to assess the storm surge risk mapping, extent of inundation of
the barangays of Lawaan Eastern Samar using QGIS Software.
 Figure 1 Conceptual Framework of the Study

The input will start with the data gathering procedure with the areas that had been affected
by storm surge in the previous five typhoons that had occurred in the area. It will then go to
the data processing of land integrity and digital elevation of the barangay’s in Lawaan
Eastern. The next process will involve the identification of areas that are vulnerable to storm
surge and are in low land. The expected output of the study will be a mapping with 10
meters, 30 meters, 60 meters, and 90 meters buffer zone of those area stated.

Definition of Terms

The following are terms that is being used in this study:

 Geographic Information System (GIS) - is a system designed to capture, store,

manipulate, analyze, manage, and present all types of geographical data. The key
word to this technology is Geography – this means that some portion of the data is
spatial
 Storm Surge - is the abnormal rise in seawater level during a storm, measured as the
height of the water above the normal predicted astronomical tide. The surge is
caused primarily by a storm's winds pushing water onshore.
 Google Earth - is the software used to analyze and digitize the coastal barangays
data that affected from storm surge.
  Digital Elevation Model – a 3D computer graphics representation of elevation data
to represent terrain.

Chapter III: Research Methodology

This chapter discusses the required data, the research design, the location, the instruments,
and how the data was processed using the Quantum Geographic Information System (QGIS).
The Geographic Information System (GIS) principle was the primary method used
throughout the research to create the output map.

Research Design

The descriptive and qualitative research methods will be used in this study. The descriptive
and qualitative designs will concentrate on gathering attribute data and spatial information
for the creation of storm surge exposure and vulnerability maps.

Locale of Investigation

The Municipality of Lawaan is one of the 23 towns in the province of Eastern Samar, located
in the province's southwestern corner, 113 kilometers from the capital town of Borongan
and about 80 kilometers from the province's border with the Philippines. To Tacloban City,
which is strategically the province's closest town to this central trade and commerce hub in
Region VIII, Lawaan is classified as a 5th class municipality with a total land area of 17,353
hectares. It is bounded on the north by the municipality of Llorente, on the east by the
municipality of Balangiga, on the west by the municipality of Marabut of Western Samar,
and on the south by the Leyte Gulf. The town is located on the coast and along the national
highway.

Respondents
The respondents of this propose study will be the Local Government Unit of Lawaan Eastern
Samar, specifically the Municipal Planning and Development Office. The LGU of the locality
shall have a firm understanding on how to respond in case of storm surge. The MPDO has
mandates from the local government unit to have the following functions: Formulate
integrated economic, social, physical and other development plans and policies for
consideration of the local government.

While the Regional Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services

Administration (PAG-ASA) will enable the researcher to have the necessary data and
information needed in the propose study. Such as models, predictions, table, risk maps, etc.

Research Instrument

Source of Data

 Municipal Planning and Development Office (MPDO) – the data of shapefiles of

Lawaan maps (storm surge prone map).

Materials and Software

 Quantum Geographic Information System (QGIS) – a useful tool to capture, store,

analyze, manage, and present all types of geographical data and it was used to
digitize the information on the scanned maps was overlaid to produce the desired
output.
 Google Earth – a useful tool to view the surface of the earth and digitize the coastal
barangays that affected from storm surge.

Data Gathering Procedure

The researcher will ask for data of the previous storm surge in the office of MPDO
and the regional PAGASA. This data and information will be about storm surge, the affected
areas of storm surge, and the location of the areas that are always affected by storm surge.
The researcher will use DEM to know the elevation of costal barangays. The researcher will
also gather data about the proximity of the area from the ocean. The researcher will collect
satellite image from google earth to serve as raw data for the buffering process.

Data Processing

For the storm surge vulnerability map, the gathered data from MPDO, PAGASA, and the
data from DEM will be compiled and manipulated to generate a desired output in the QGIS
program. The researcher used GPS to gather geographic coordinates to be inputted in
Google Earth. Using google earth the researcher will get a satellite image. The data collected
will be used to overlay the barangays expose during a storm surge.

In the storm surge exposure map. The downloaded image from Google Earth will be
georeferenced in the software. The loaded spatial data in QGIS software became the basis
for digitizing the factors that affect from storm surge. The researcher will start the
Geoprocessing tool-fixe buffer in QGIS to determine the areas that are affected if a storm
surge occur. The buffering process will be in terms of 10m, 30m, 60m, 90m, so that the
exposed areas and built ups exposed the storm surge will be known. After the
Geoprocessing the result will be used to create the storm surge exposure map.

References

Luma-Anh, C., (2019). THE ANALYSIS OF STORM SURGE IN MANILA BAY,

THE PHILIPPINES, Onternational Hydrographic Review,

https://journals.lib.unb.ca/index.php/ihr/article/download/31168/1882526424/188252834
4

National Geographic Encyclopedia Entry. Storm Surge.

https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/storm-surge/

Naranjo, A. (13 Jan 2017). The top 5 most devastating storm surge to hit the Philippines,
https://theresilientperspective.wordpress.com/2017/01/13/the-top-5-most-devastating-
storm-surge-to-hit-the-philippines/

NDDRMC (2021). What you need to remember about Storm Surges, Official Gazette of the
Philippines, https://www.officialgazette.gov.ph/laginghanda/storm-surges/#:~:text=Who
%20are%20susceptible%20to%20storm,hit%20by%20a%20storm%20surge.