Philippine Journal of Science

147 (3): 463-471, September 2018

ISSN 0031 - 7683
Date Received: 22 May 2017

Flood Susceptibility Assessment of Mt. Makiling, Philippines

Using Two-Dimensional Meteorological
and Hydrological Modelling

Richard L. Ybañez, Bernard Alan B. Racoma, Audrei Anne B. Ybañez,

and Maria Ines Rosana D. Balangue-Tarriela

National Institute of Geological Sciences, University of the Philippines Diliman,

Quezon City 1101 Philippines

In a data-poor, hazard-prone country like the Philippines, interpolating distant data points and
computer modelling have become the go-to methods for determining the hazards that may affect an
area. The absence of monitoring stations and gauges necessitates the application of modelling techniques
to build on the little data available and generate reliable hazard maps. In this study – the devastating
Sep 2009 Tropical Cyclone Ketsana (local name: Ondoy) event, its atmospheric characteristics, and
its effects near Mt. Makiling, Laguna – is analyzed utilizing two modelling software: the Weather
Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to assess the amount of rainfall, and FLO-2D to map the
flood hazard areas around the volcano using the output of the WRF. A lone meteorological observation
station on Mt. Makiling provided rainfall data for comparison with the results of the meteorological
and hydrological models. The WRF model yielded a mean rainfall amount in the study area of 129.92
mm over 24 h for the storm against the observed rainfall amount for the same duration at 182.3 mm
from the meteorological station. The flood model using the WRF data yielded minimal inundated areas,
while the flood model of the observed rainfall data showed several low-lying urban areas inundated
by up to 1.5 m of floodwaters. Comparison with flood data collected by responding agencies and
groups after the event shows good correlation of affected areas and flood heights, with discrepancies
being attributed to the swelling of Laguna de Bay because of excess runoff from other surrounding
provinces – a factor that the models could not consider. Despite this, the WRF model generated from
global atmospheric data and the flood model using the WRF product appears as a feasible substitute
in the absence of on-site observation points and monitoring stations.

Key words: computer modelling, flooding, hazard mapping, rainfall

INTRODUCTION much as 20 TCs enter annually with seven to eight of

Located in the tropics, the Philippines is subject yearly
to tropical cyclones (TCs) and monsoon rains. In the
Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) – an area
stretching from Taiwan to Palau in which the Philippine
Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomic Services
Administration (PAGASA) monitors TC activity – as
*Corresponding author: rich.ybañez@nigs.upd.edu.ph
these making landfall (Yumul et al. 2011). While the
total number of TCs that pass through the Philippines has
slightly decreased in recent years according to David and
colleagues (2014), the current 10-year moving average
number of TCs is listed at 28.4 annually. Based on this
number, TC formation in the Western Pacific, and east
to west movement of most of the TCs, the Philippines is
at significant risk from TCs and extreme rainfall related

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disasters. As such, the occurrence of these storms defines
the types and frequencies of natural hazards – such as flash
floods and landslides – that the Philippines experiences.
With enormous amounts of rainfall, buildup of runoff
into floodwaters is inevitable; for a country whose major
city centers are dominantly located along rivers and on
floodplains, this causes regular occurrences of inundation
and flash floods.
In the month of Feb 2018 alone, three tropical storms
(Kai-tak, Tembin, and Sanba) that made landfall in the
Philippines caused 220 fatalities plus 96 injuries and
affected nearly three million people. Numerous flash
floods and landslides caused by these storms contributed
to the damage caused by these TCs (NDRRMC 2018).
This study focuses on Mt. Makiling, whose high-relief and
large spatial extent of approximately 60 km2 pose flood
hazards to communities located in its ridges and valleys
(Figure 1). Four different municipalities can be found in
and around Mt. Makiling, with the municipality of Los
Baños occupying the volcano’s northwest-northeast-
southeast flanks and foothills – the largest area of all.
The entire southwest quadrant of the volcano is found
at the municipality of Santo Tomas in the province of
Figure 1. Location map of the study area.
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Ybañez et al.: Flood Susceptibility Assessment of Mt. Makiling
Batangas. The city of Calamba and municipality of Bay
also contain some of Makiling’s foothills to the northwest
and southeast, respectively. Calamba, Los Baños, and Bay
are all part of the province of Laguna and share a coast
with Laguna de Bay, making these areas the drainage
outlets of Mt. Makiling. While the southwest quadrant
of Makiling drains into Santo Tomas, there are no outlets
into any large body of water here. The stream thus flows
north into the city of Calamba before draining into Laguna
de Bay.
Like most other provinces in the Philippines, Laguna is
vulnerable to flooding caused by consistent and strong
rainfall (GMANews.TV 2009; Benaning 2013). During
the wet season of Jun to Oct, a monthly average of 248.4
mm of rainfall is precipitated in the province (IRRI 2015).
Laguna de Bay, an expansive lake north of the province,
serves as the drainage basin for the adjacent provinces of
Metro Manila, Rizal, and Laguna itself. As such, flooding
in Laguna is nearly inevitable in extreme cases of rainfall.
As an example, in Sep 2009, Tropical Storm (TS) Ondoy
– a TC with 62-118 kph winds – passed through central to
southern Luzon and precipitated unprecedented amounts
of rainfall unto affected provinces (Ramos et al. 2009);
in Metro Manila, the recorded rainfall reached 448.5 mm
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Vol. 147 No. 3, September 2018
in only 12 h (Abon et al. 2011). The extreme rainfall in
these provinces resulted in an increased amount of runoff
draining into Laguna de Bay. Swelling of the lake occurred
resulting in water moving inland into the coastal areas
of Laguna where reclaimed land and floodplains were
inundated by floodwaters up to several meters (Inquirer
Southern Luzon 2012). Since drainage into Laguna de Bay
ceased because of the swelling, floodwaters accumulated
at the coastal and lowland areas remaining in place for
months to come. It was through this event that Laguna
province’s flood hazard along its coastal areas was
observed and understood, as the volume of floodwaters
coupled with lake water level rise resulted in the coastal
areas’ inundation (Carcamo 2013).
Rapid development of the province of Laguna has led to
unintended consequences such as pollution and flooding
(Cinco et al. 2016). With calls for rapid rehabilitation
being made, tools and models that may shed light between
the interactions of the lake and nearby settlements are
needed to help manage hydrological risk in light of urban
planning (Morelli et al. 2012). Geographic Information
Systems (GIS)-based analyses can produce information
that can help rapidly help public administrations with
their assessments for hazard prone areas (Morelli et al.
2014). Finally, models accompanied with local community
knowledge can help bolster a community’s response in
cases of impending hazards (Tran et al. 2008).
The lack of a dense rainfall observation network in
the study area for use in creating hydrologic models
necessitates the utilization of a meteorological model to
approximate atmospheric conditions to get an estimate of
rainfall distribution over the area. The rainfall product, in
turn, is fed into the hydrological model to approximate
the flood hazards that may affect the area. With the lack
of monitoring stations for torrential rain and increasing
stream levels, this modelling tandem may prove useful
as an alternative to determining the possible hydrological
hazards in a study area.
METHODOLOGY
This study uses GIS-based and modelling-derived of the
two referenced natural hazards to present a consolidated
and advanced analysis of areas susceptible to rainfall and
flooding near Mt. Makiling. With the help of advanced
computer modelling techniques – coupled with standard
GIS processes – accurate and reliable data for potential
rainfall and flooding was produced for the study area.
Computer-modelled hazard maps could play a significant
role in disaster preparedness, mitigation, and response
for the local and national government as well as the
public. Analysis of the products of each model product
Ybañez et al.: Flood Susceptibility Assessment of Mt. Makiling
provides new perspective into an accurate understanding
of Mt. Makiling’s susceptibility to torrential rainfall and
subsequent flooding. These maps will allow engineers
and urban planners to design better strategies for disaster
management against flooding events.
Case Study: Precipitation Modelling of Tropical
Storm Ondoy
By 2009, a total of only 57 synoptic weather stations
were installed by PAGASA and made available via the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s
National Centers for Environmental Information (https://
www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/). Unfortunately, there is a
lack of density of rainfall observation points with only
one – the University of the Philippines Los Baños Agromet
station – located in Mt. Makiling and the next one located
in Sangley Point Cavite, 45 km away from the study site.
As such, because of the lack detailed rainfall data for the
area during Tropical Storm Ondoy, the WRF Model 3.5
was used to simulate the spatial extent of Tropical Storm
Ondoy’s accumulated precipitation along Laguna. The
WRF Model is used both by researchers and forecasters
to simulate atmospheric conditions such as wind speed
and direction, amount of precipitation, humidity, and
temperature (Skamarock et al. 2005). Deriving from
simulated and observed data, WRF can capture the
extent of mesoscale events of specified resolutions. A
two-dimensional, 1 x 1 km accumulated precipitation
map of TS Ondoy was produced in this study and was
used to evaluate climate induced hazards particularly
flood hazards in Mt Makiling. While the rainfall
distribution of the WRF model along the area captured
the distribution of the rainfall pretty well, the validation
of the aforementioned precipitation dataset was done in a
separate study by Racoma and co-workers (2016).
Flood Modelling of WRF Product
The flood modelling component of this study was generated
using the software FLO-2D version 2009.06, a flood routing
software used to map flood extent and hazard. With given
input conditions, FLO-2D uses hydrological equations to
produce a two-dimensional map of flood extent, depth,
and hazard over an affected area (O’Brien et al. 1993).
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) data such as Digital
Elevation Models (DEM), watershed boundary and stream
shapefiles, and land use shapefiles are used to create a
virtual environment for the simulation. Rainfall data is then
introduced to simulate a complete rainfall event and the
subsequent drainage and runoff process. Simulated flooding
is monitored and recorded, producing a generalized flood
hazard map derived from horizontal flood extent and flow
depth and velocity.
For the simulation used in this study, a resampled digital
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terrain model derived from Interferometric Synthetic
Aperture Radar (IfSAR) with a resolution of 30 x 30 m
was used as the topographic base of the model. The final
resolution of the product flood hazard map is defined
by the resolution as set by the digital elevation model.
All watersheds draining Mt. Makiling were included
in the simulation. Surface roughness – defined by the
n-Manning’s coefficient – was set at a value of 0.03 for
streams, 0.01 for urban surfaces, 0.20 for agricultural
lands, 0.30 for grasslands, and 0.40 for forested areas;
these values were derived and generalized from the more
specific surface cover features and their corresponding
coefficients found in the FLO-2D Pocket Guide. Rainfall
data used was from the precipitation output of the WRF
model over the area which, for the duration of 0800 h
Figure 2. Accumulated rainfall over Mt. Makiling (26-27 Sep 2009)
Figure 3. Point rainfall over Mt. Makiling (26-27 Sep 2009).
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Ybañez et al.: Flood Susceptibility Assessment of Mt. Makiling
26 Sep 2009 to 0800 h 27 Sep 2009, is at 129.92 mm
for the 24-hr period. This value was then applied as
10-min point rainfall using the United States Natural
Resources Conservation Service rainfall distribution for
a 24-hour model storm as seen in Figure 2 (Merkel et al.
2015). For comparison, rainfall data from the University
of the Philippines Los Baños (UPLB) Agromet station
during the same period, 182.3 mm, was also used. The
accumulated rainfall for the two rainfall scenarios are
shown in Figure 3.
Outflow nodes were set along the boundary of the watershed
at the coast of Laguna de Bay. This boundary assumes
unimpeded flow into the lake and does not consider possible
backflow by tide, lake water level, or surge.
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Vol. 147 No. 3, September 2018
RESULTS
WRF Modelling for Precipitation Estimation
Based on the WRF model, during TS Ondoy, as much as
326.06 mm of accumulated rain over 24 h fell over the
northern boundaries of Calamba, Laguna and Laguna de
Bay (Figure 4) while the average accumulated rainfall
across the WRF simulation grid points is 129.92 mm. The
nearest Agromet station in UPLB recorded 182.3 mm in
24 h, a value not too far from the WRF simulation average.
While the storm’s center did not directly pass over the
Laguna area with a distance of roughly 90 km away from
the northern tip of Laguna (red track in Figure 4), the
precipitation it brought was enough to cause an overflow in
the lake that directly affected coastal areas (Ubalde 2009).
FLO-2D Modelling
The flood hazard map (Figure 5) generated for southwest
Laguna where the study area is located shows drainage
of numerous tributaries into Laguna de Bay to the north.
Most sources of runoff are located around Mt. Makiling, as
well as some high-relief areas to the west going into Cavite
province. Tributaries located along Makiling’s flank only
run for a few kilometers before draining into the lake. An
Figure 4. WRF model extent of accumulated rainfall near Laguna for Tropical Storm Ondoy from 15:00, 24 Sep 2009 to
12:00, 26 Sep 2009; 6-hourly TS tracks in red taken from International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship
(Knapp et al. 2010).
Ybañez et al.: Flood Susceptibility Assessment of Mt. Makiling
exception is the nearly 40 km-long San Juan River, which
serves as drainage for areas farther south into Batangas
province as well as the southern to western flanks of Mt.
Makiling. With rainfall from the WRF product, minimal
flooding is observed in the study area. Small pockets of
inundation are observed along flood plains and urban areas
near the tip of the tributaries leading into Laguna de Bay.
Figure 6 shows the flood hazard map using data from the
Agromet Station. There is significantly more flooding along
tributaries to the east and along coastal areas at the foot
of Mt. Makiling in this map compared to the WRF flood
hazard map. Flood heights of up to 1.5 m high are observed
along coastal urban areas beside tributaries between the
foothills of Mt. Makiling and the coastline of Laguna de
Bay – an area approximately 1.5 km wide and 8.0 km long.
DISCUSSION
Owing to its regional climate, the location of Laguna
province and Mt. Makiling in the Philippine archipelago
renders it vulnerable to both regular and extreme rainfall
events for a large part of the year particularly during the
wet months of Jul to Sep. Several tributaries formed from
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Vol. 147 No. 3, September 2018

Figure 5. Flood hazard map for Mount Makiling from the WRF model product (129.92 mm rainfall).

Figure 6. Flood hazard map for Mount Makiling from the Agromet station (182.30 mm rainfall).

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the flanks of Mt. Makiling serve as pathways for excess
runoff that can, in turn, inundate low-lying urban areas
at the foothills of Makiling. The lack of a dense network
of hydrometeorological monitoring stations around Mt.
Makiling makes the WRF model a workable substitute
for determining rainfall distribution in the area for use in
monitoring and hazards mapping.
Flood hazards from the model using WRF data are
minimal, indicating that the average 24-hour value of
rainfall at 129.92 mm is not enough to cause severe
flooding in the area. Drainage to Laguna de Bay is
adequate to prevent significant inundation of urban areas.
However, in the flood hazard map using the Agromet
Station data of 182.3 mm in a 24-hour period, significant
– though not widespread flooding – can be observed
along low-lying urban areas indicating the inadequacy of
tributaries to drain the increase in runoff due to rainfall.
When compared to a situation map produced by the
National Mapping and Resource Information Authority
(NAMRIA) from data collected on the ground by the
National Disaster Coordinating Council, the Agromet
Figure 7. Affected barangays by TS Ondoy and Typhoon Pepeng with corresponding water levels (NAMRIA 2009). This paper’s study
area enclosed in red.
Ybañez et al.: Flood Susceptibility Assessment of Mt. Makiling
flood hazard map appears accurate in its depiction of
affected areas. Coastal barangays in the study area are all
marked as having experienced knee-high floodwaters after
TS Ondoy (Figure 7), while the same area in the Agromet
data flood model has urban areas that were inundated by
0.5-1.5 m of floodwaters (Figure 6).
As FLO-2D only models riverine flooding, the products
shown above do not reflect lake waters that may have
inundated coastal urbanized areas because of the swelling
of Laguna de Bay in the hours and days after TS Ondoy
as reported by news articles. The discrepancy between
affected areas based on the flood models and those that are
described in news articles and disaster response maps can
be attributed to this limitation, indicating that inundated
areas not shown on the map were caused by lake swelling
and not river swelling from the various tributaries in the
area. Similarly, while the WRF model captures the spatial
distribution of rainfall quite well, it tends to overestimate
the amount of rainfall in the modeled areas (Racoma et al.
2016). Future studies should take into consideration the
propagation of error, especially when models are used as
inputs for other models.
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CONCLUSIONS
In this study, rainfall data from the 26 Sep 2009 TS Ondoy
event was taken from a hydrometeorological station in Mt.
Makiling as well as modelled through WRF. The lack of
a dense network of rain gauges in the area necessitates
the use of a meteorological model to approximate the
mean rainfall from the TS Ondoy event. The WRF model
resulted in a coarse rainfall distribution of the study area
with an average amount of 129.92 mm, compared to
the observed 182.3 mm in the Agromet Station. These
two were then used as input for hydrologic modelling to
ascertain the flood hazards that low-lying communities
experienced during that event. The mean rainfall amount
of the WRF model was insufficient in generating the actual
observed flood hazards and may hence be underestimated.
The model from the Agromet Station data reflected more
inundated areas depicting more accurately the observed
flooding along the tributaries. However, the lack of
hydrologic input from coastal swelling proved to be a
significant limitation in closely recreating the floodwaters
of the TS Ondoy event in the Mt. Makiling area.
For countries like the Philippines where the density of
meteorological observation stations is lacking, the WRF
model can provide rainfall distribution of a study area for
use in hazards monitoring and modelling. The FLO-2D
model can then utilize this generated rainfall data, in the
absence of rainfall gauges or records in the study area, to
simulate flood hazards that can possibly affect floodplains
and other low-lying area.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authors would like to thank the following people
and groups: the Local Government Units of Barangays
Pansol, Camaligan, and Saimsim for providing valuable
information and support, the drivers of the National
Institute of Geological Sciences; the Geosciences
Foundation Incorporated for providing us with some
funds for our fieldworks; Project NOAH for providing
the technical skills and capabilities to produce the data
presented here; and finally, the other members of our team:
Julius Judan, Karizz Morante, and Raymond Leuterio for
conducting the fieldwork with us.
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