Weather and Disturbance

TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS Introduction

 A tornado is a violent, dangerous, rotating
column of air in contact with both the surface
of the earth and a cumulonimbus cloud
(otherwise known as a thundercloud) or, in
rare cases, the base of a cumulus cloud.
 Tornadoes come in many sizes but are
typically in the form of a visible condensation
funnel, whose narrow end touches the earth
and is often encircled by a cloud of debris
and dust.
 Most tornadoes have wind speeds between
40 and 110 mph (64 and 180 km/h), are
approximately 250 feet (76 m) across, and
travel a few miles (several kilometers) before
dissipating. Some attain wind speeds of more
than 300 mph (480 km/h), stretch more than
one mile (1.6 km) across, and stay on the
ground for dozens of miles (more than 100
km.

 Waterspouts have similar characteristics as

tornadoes, characterized by a spiralling
 funnel-shaped wind current that form over
bodies of water, connecting to large
Cumulonimbus clouds.

 Waterspouts are generally classified as

forms of tornadoes, or more specifically,
non-supercelled tornadoes that develop
over large bodies of water. These spiralling
columns of air are frequently developed
within tropical areas close to the equator,
 but are less common within areas of high
latitude

FLOODS
Introduction
Philippines has a well-defined wet season
added with other precipitation-producing
weather phenomena: tropical cyclones,
thunderstorms, the ITCZ, frontal passages,
etc. all these can generate large amounts of
precipitation. In combination with each other
or, in particular with the monsoon, these
phenomena are capable of bringing intense
and excessive precipitation. Under certain
conditions, a surfeit of rainfall results in a
potentially disastrous phenomenon - flood.
Floods are the most common and widespread
of all weather-related natural disasters.
Damaging flooding may happen with only a
few inches of water, or it may cover a house to
the rooftop. Floods can occur within minutes
or over a long period, and can last days,
weeks, or longer.

Flood Causes
Flood causes could be natural or artificial as
shown on the table below.

NATURAL ARTIFICIAL
 Meteorological Events - an intense and
prolonged rainfall spells - unusually high
coastal and estuarine waters due to storm
surges, seiches, etc.
 Seismic Activities - tsunamis (seismic sea
waves) - sinking of land due to earthquakes
reduces the elevation of land areas -
uplifting of lake and river beds from seismic
causes sometime results in the overflowing
of these bodies of water
 Atronomically- Influenced Phenomena high
tides coinciding with the occurrence of
heavy rainfall .

ARTIFICIAL

 Blasting - causes landslides in the slopes of

hills and mountains which may result in the
unintentional damming of rivers and
streams
 Construction of temporary dams - produces
an impediment to the flow of a river or
stream which then results in an overflow

 Failure of hydraulic and other control

structures - accidents like the breaking of a
dike result in the entry of an enormous
quantity of water in a protected area

 Mismanagement of hydraulic structures -

may necessitate an untimely and sudden
release of large amounts of excess water


 Denudation of forest and watershed areas -

alter the ecological system in a river basin
will have an impact on the hydrology of the
catchment.

FLOOD TYPES

Minor Flooding
 Inundation may or may not be due to
overbanking
 When there is no bank overflow, flooding is
simply due to the accumulation of excessive
surface runoff in low lying flat areas
 Floodwaters are usually confined to the
flood plain of the river along the channel,
on random low-lying areas and depressions
in the terrain .
 Floodwater is usually shallow and there may
not be a perceptible flow Major Flooding
 Flooding is caused by the over-flowing of
rivers and lakes; by serious breaks in dikes,
levees, dams and other protective
structures; by uncontrollable releases of
impounded water in reservoirs and by the
accumulation of excessive runoff.
 Floodwaters cover a wide contiguous area
and spread rapidly to adjoining areas of
relatively lower elevation .
 Flooding is relatively deep in most parts of
the stricken areas.
  There is a highly perceptible current as the
flood spreads to other areas

Cascading Effects
Floods are among the most destructive
calamities man has to cope with. Even the
most minor flooding poses some
inconveniences. A really big flood can result in
millions even billions of pesos of damages to
roads and bridges, buildings and other
economic infrastructure, in the loss of
agricultural crops and livestock, loss of
productivity in industry, commerce and trade.
To this is added the incalculable loss of human
lives directly attributable to floods as well as
the hardship and attendant socioeconomic
problems of forced human displacement and
the emotional impact on those affected by
floods Aside from the direct damages brought
by a flood there are also those cascading
effects which follow in the wake of the
calamity. Among the immediate problems
caused by flood are the lack of basic utilities
and essential necessities, particularly, food and
potable water. Flood also disrupts the sanitary
regime in a community. This almost always
results in the contamination of the water
supply. Thus, in a flood-stricken area an
epidemic of gastro-intestinal diseases
frequently breaks out. Respiratory ailments
due to exposure are also quite common.
Monitoring and Prediction:
 For obviously practical reasons, man has
always preferred a riverine environment.
Almost always naturally fertile and,
therefore, able to provide him with an
abundance of his needs, flood plains have
always attracted man as a place to settle
down.
 The river or a lake, in addition to being a
source of his livelihood, also serves as a
convenient means of communications, an
avenue for trade and commerce. However,
 a river is not always placid, serenely flowing
along. It has its moods. And it changes its
moods, quite regularly. When it does, man
comes face to face with the phenomenon of
the flood.
 Modern flood forecasting is now based on
the standard procedure of monitoring and
analyzing the hydrological and
meteorological conditions in a river basin.
While the tools and methods of monitoring
may have been modernized with the use of
sensitive, telemeterized gauging
 instruments to effect better observation and
faster transmission of data, it is still
basically an attempt to paint a bread picture
of what is currently happening,
hydrologically and meteorologically, in a
river basin.
 The simple method of associating the
weather to the behavior of the river has
given way to the more modern
sophisticated analytical methods aided by
the computerized flood forecasting models.
With further evaluation of the results of the
 various analysis, hydrologists are able to
come up with a prediction of the future
state of the river.

Flood Forecast
 The preparation, issuance and
dissemination of an adequate and timely
warning is the ultimate purpose of flood
forecasting. Timeliness is an essential
requirement for a flood warning. A sufficient
lead time enables the ultimate user to take
the necessary precautionary
countermeasures. The hydrological and
meteorological conditions in a river basin
and the consequent state of its river system
is never constant. The behavior of the river
itself is the resultant of the interaction of all
 hydrological processes and conditions in the
river basin.
 A flooding situation is not a daily
occurrence. However, flood forecasting
operations must, of necessity, be a
continuous activity. It is carried out from
day to day even when the possibility of a
flood is highly improbable. This mode of
operation enables flood forecasters to
pinpoint the beginning of a potential flood-
generating situation
Like storm bulletins which are issued only
during the presence of tropical cyclones,
flood forecast and warning bulletins are
prepared only when a potential flooding
situation is definitely present. They are
issued regularly at specified hours of the
day for the duration of the flooding period
until the flood recedes or when all hazards
and dangers associated with the
phenomenon are no longer present.
 The prevailing hydrometeorological situation
in a given river basin defines the
operational environment under which flood
forecasting and warning operations are
carried out Conviniently categorized into:

 Normal Situation
 Alert Phase
 Warning Phase

These operational situations are dependent

for their implementation on the behavior
and state of the river with respect to a set
of criteria known as flood assessment
levels. In practice, flood bulletins are issued
as soon as the development of a flooding
exists. The initial bulletin serves merely to
alert the people in the threatened basin to
the possibility of a flood. It is never
intended to categorically state that there
will be flooding but only of the possibility.
The initial bulletin is issued as soon as the
operational situation passes fro the alert to
the warning phase. The transition from one
 operational status to another is based on
the pre-determined criteria.

A flood forecasting operation consists of the

following;
MONITORING
This requires the collection, at regular interval,
of the real-time data on rainfall, water level
and other information that affect the
hydrological condition of the river basin and
the state of the river system. This provides a
broad picture of the current situation in a river
basin.
ANALYSIS
The data are analysed and related to other
available information such as storm data from
radar and satellite observation. The general
objective here is to deduce the probable
development in the hydrological situation in
the river basin in the near future. This part of
the operation involves a variety of hydrological
analyses as well as the use of flood forecasting
models to provide an objective estimate of the
fore-cast situation.
PREPARATION OF FORCASTING AND
WARNING
Upon receipt of the coded messages, they are
decoded and each set of observations is
plotted in symbols or numbers on weather
charts over the respective areas or regions.
Observations made over land and sea are
plotted on the surface or mean sea level charts
which are prepared four times a day.
Radiosonde, theodolite, aircraft and satellite
wind observations are plotted on upper level
charts which are prepared twice daily.
DISSEMINATION OF THE FLOOD AND
FORECAST WARNING
Flood forecasts are completed in time for
release at regular preset time of issuance.
Dissemination is made through disseminating
agencies such as the OCD, DSWD, NDCC, and
thru the mass media, particularly radio and
television

 There are three categories of flood

information intended for the general public.
 All are issued under the general title of
"Flood Bulletin". A distinct series of bulletins
is issued for each threatened river basin
where the forecasting and warning service is
already extended and operational. As already
stated, bulletins are issued only when
conditions, i.e., there is a potential flooding
situation, so warrant their issuance. When
required, flood bulletins are prepared twice
daily.
 They are completed and readied for issuance
and dissemination at 5:00 AM. and 5:00 PM,
 respectively, when it is deemed early enough
to provide vital information for concerned
users to take necessary countermeasures
before they leave for work in the morning or
before they retire at night

Countermeasure and Mitigation of Flood

Damage
 A "Flood Advisory" is a warning that states
the imminence of a flood situation. Thus, it
also contains suggested necessary actions
 that may have to be taken by the residents
and the community in the threatened basin.
An advisory is issued when the hydrological
situation deteriorates further. It is also issued
when condition is definitely improving but
caution is still necessary.
 A "Flood Warning" is issued when a
flooding situation is a definite reality at least
24 hours before actual flooding occurs. This
category is maintained in succeeding bulletins
as long as the affected areas are inundated
and the attendant dangers are present. Aside
 from the forecast, a warning states the
necessary precautionary measures and
actions residents as well as the affected
community must take.

 Flood bulletins are specifically directed to

the public. They are intended to apprise the
people in the threatened area of the present
situation and of the expected development. It
suggests the appropriate actions the
community may have to take to prevent or
mitigate the disastrous effects of a flood. As
 in any kind of disaster, the best
countermeasures for flood damage
prevention and mitigation are those which
are community efforts.

 As in any kind of disaster, the best

countermeasures for flood damage
prevention and mitigation are those which
are community efforts.
 Floods cannot be prevented. To a large
extent, however, they can be controlled
effectively. By this is meant keeping the river
from overflowing. There are a number of
ways of accomplishing this before and during
a flood:
A. Increasing the flow capacity of a river by
cleaning the channel of debris, by dredging,
by straightening of channels, etc.;
B. Construction of dikes and levees; and
C. Sandbagging during floods.
 Indidvidually and collectively, people in a
flood-stricken area must take precautionary
measures to ensure personnel safety and
health:
A. People, particularly children, should avoid
wading in floodwaters.
B. Where houses are expected to be
flooded, people should move to higher
places.
C. Electrically operated appliances should be
transferred to upper storeys of buildings.
 D. When electrical fines and outlets will be
submerged in floodwater, power should be
switched off.
E. Flood damage mitigation and protection is
a concern not only during the disaster. It
should be practiced before, during and after
the occurrence of a flood
Basic Safety Rules
BEFORE THE FLOOD
 Find out how often your location is likely to
be flooded.
 Know the flood warning system in your
community and be sure your family knows it.
 Keep informed of daily weather condition.
 Designate an evacuation area for the family
and livestock.
  Assign family members instructions and
responsibilities according to an evacuation
plan.
 Keep a stock of food which requires little
cooking and refrigeration; electric power may
be interrupted.
 Keep a transistorized radio and flashlight
with spare batteries, emergency cooking
equipment, candies, matches and first aid kit
handy in case of emergency.
 Store supplies and other household effects
above expected flood water level.
 Securely anchor weak dwellings and items.

WHEN WARNED OF FLOOD

 Watch for rapidly rising flood waters
 Listen to your radio for emergency intructions
 If you find it necessary to evacuate, move to
a safe area before access is cut off by flood
waters
 Store drinking water in containers, water
service maybe interrupted
 Move household belongings to upper levels
 Get livestock to higher ground
 Turn off electricity at the main switch in the
building before evacuating and also lock your
house.

DURING FLOOD
 Avoid areas subject to sudden flooding.
 Do not attempt to cross rivers of flowing
streams where water is above the knee.
 Beware of water-covered roads and
bridges.
  Avoid unnecessary exposure to the
elements.
 Do not go swimming or boating in swollen
rivers.
 Eat only well-cooked food. Protect leftovers
against contamination.
 Drink clean or preferably boiled water
ONLY.

AFTER THE FLOOD

 Re-enter the dwellings with caution using
flashlights, not lanterns or tourchers.
Flammables maybe inside
 Be alert for fire hazards like broken wires
 Do not eat food and drink water until they
have been checked for flood water
contamination
 Report broken utility lines ( electricity, water,
gas, and telephone) to appropriate agencies
authorities
 Do not turn on the main switch or use
appliances and other equipment until they
 have been checked by a competent
electrician
 Consult health authorities for immunization
requirements
 Do not go in disaster areas. Your presence
might hamper rescue and other emergency
operations.

 Flood are aggravated by factors resulting

from the carelessness and indifference of
people usually before floods occur.
THINGS ONE CAN DO TO MITIGATE
FLOOD
 Regulate cutting of trees
 Report illegal loggers and kaingeros.
 Report illegal construction of fishponds and
other establishments in waterways.
 Do not throw garbage in esteros and
rivers.
 Help clean the neighborhood.
 Support community activities intended to
lessen the occurrence of floods.
  Avoid throwing anything like plastic
wrappers anywhere which may clog or block
the drainage system Socio-Economic
Impacts of Flood
 It is easy to say, and admittedly, floods have
a tremendous socio-economic impact.
Its main effect is to retard development. A
flood-stricken area must first be restored to
normal before and development activity can
be carried out. Restoration can take time.

 The social and emotional trauma inflicted on

the people usually have a short-term
inhibiting effect on the community's drive.
Hence, a little time can elapse before any
 concerted move for normalization can take
place

 Flood damage is incalculable. Assessment of

damage attributable to floods alone is
difficult. Floods usually occur in association
with other natural destructive phenomena
such as tropical cyclones. Except in rare
cases such as the Angat River disaster of the
late 70's where loss of lives and property is
identifiably due to the flood alone, it is
difficult to segregate damages caused by a
flood and those which resulted from the
associated phenomenon. Therefore, precise
quantifiable damage is always difficult to
estimate. In addition to the directly
determinable losses may be added the
indirect potential losses. These results from
unproductivity in many areas - in business, in
trade, in commerce, etc. All these losses can
wipe out whatever gains that may have been
achieved in economic development.
DROUGHT
INTODUCTION
 While it is relatively easy to define what a
hurricane or earthquake is, defining a
drought is more subjective. Droughts do not
have the immediate effects of floods, but
sustained droughts can cause economic
stress throughout an area. The word
"drought" has various meanings, depending
on a person's perspective. To a farmer, a
drought is a period of moisture deficiency
that affects the crops under cultivation—even
two weeks without rainfall can stress many
crops during certain periods of the growing
cycle. To a meteorologist, a drought is a
prolonged period when precipitation is less
than normal. To a water manager, a drought
is a deficiency in water supply that affects
water availability and water quality. To a
hydrologist, a drought is an extended period
of decreased precipitation and streamflow.

When does a drought begin?

 The beginning of a drought is difficult to
determine. Several weeks, months, or even
years may pass before people know that a
drought is occurring. The end of a drought
can occur as gradually as it began. Dry
periods can last for 10 years or more.
 The first evidence of drought usually is seen
in records of rainfall. Within a short period of
time, the amount of moisture in soils can
begin to decrease. The effects of a drought
on flow in streams and reservoirs may not be
noticed for several weeks or months. Water
levels in wells may not reflect a shortage of
rainfall for a year or more after a drought
begins (Moreland, 1993).
 Unlike with sudden weather events such as
hurricanes, tornadoes, and thunderstorms, it
is often difficult to pinpoint when a drought
 has started or when it has ended. The initial
effects of a drought may be difficult to
identify right away, so it may take weeks or
months to determine that a drought has
started.
 The end of a drought is hard to identify for
the same reason. A drought may last for
weeks, months, or even years.
Effects of drought
Droughts affect people in a several ways.
Access to clean drinking water is essential for
all life, and sources of water may dwindle
during a drought. Without the presence of
water, people must bring in enough water
from elsewhere to survive. Water is also
needed for crops to grow. When not enough
precipitation falls to naturally water crops,
they must be watered by irrigation. Irrigation
is possible only when there is enough water
 in nearby rivers, lakes, or streams, or from
groundwater. During a drought, these water
sources are diminished and may even dry up,
preventing crops from being irrigated and
causing them to die off.
 Crop failure
 Livestock death
 Water scarcity
 Wildfires
 Lower power generation
 Economic impact
 Public health
 Migration
Types of Drought
Droughts are categorized according to how
they develop and what types of impact they
have.
1. Meteorological drought. Meteorological
drought occurs when a region’s rainfall falls far
short of expectations. Hydrometeorology
2. Agricultural drought. When available water
supplies are unable to meet the needs of crops
or livestock at a particular time, agricultural
drought may ensue.
3. Hydrological drought. A hydrological
drought occurs when a lack of rainfall persists
long enough to deplete surface water—rivers,
reservoirs, or streams—and groundwater
supplies

Causes of Drought
A. Natural Causes.
Droughts have plagued humankind
throughout much of our history, and until
recently they were often natural phenomena
triggered by cyclical weather patterns, such
as the amount of moisture and heat in the
air, land, and sea.

1. Fluctuating ocean and land

temperatures. Ocean temperatures largely
dictate global weather patterns, including dry
and wet conditions on land, and even tiny
temperature fluctuations can have huge
ripple effects on climate systems. Research
shows that dramatic and prolonged
temperature changes in the North Pacific and
North Atlantic Oceans correspond directly to
extreme weather patterns on land, including
persistent droughts in North America and the
eastern Mediterranean—the latter of which
has been described as the region’s worst
drought in 900 years. Fluctuating ocean
temperatures are also behind El Niño and La
Niña weather phenomena, with La Niña
notorious for drying out the southern United
States.
2. Altered weather patterns. The
distribution of rainfall around the world is
also impacted by how air circulates through
the atmosphere. When there is an anomaly in
surface temperatures— particularly over the
sea—air circulation patterns are altered,
changing how and where precipitation falls
around the world

3. Reduced soil moisture. Soil moisture

can impact cloud formation, and hence
precipitation. When water from wet soil
evaporates, it contributes to the formation of
rain clouds, which return the water back to
the earth. When land is drier than usual,
moisture still evaporates into the
atmosphere, but not at a volume adequate to
form rain clouds.

B. Manmade Causes
While drought occurs naturally, human
activity—from water use to greenhouse gas
emissions—is having a growing impact on
their likelihood and intensity.
 1. Climate change. Climate change—and
global warming, specifically—impacts drought
in two basic ways: Rising temperatures
generally make wet regions wetter and dry
regions drier. For wetter regions, warm air
absorbs more water, leading to larger rain
events. But in more arid regions, warmer
temperatures mean water evaporates more
quickly. In addition, climate change alters
large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns,
which can shift storm tracks off their typical
paths.
2. Excess water demand.
Drought often reflects an imbalance in water
supply and demand. Regional population
booms and intensive agricultural water use
can put a strain on water resources, even
tipping the scale enough to make the threat
of drought a reality. consumption of water
increased the frequency of drought in North
America by 25 percent. What’s more, once
rainfall dwindles and drought conditions take
hold, persistent water demand—in the form
of increased pumping from groundwater,
rivers, and reservoirs—can deplete valuable
water resources that may take years to
replenish and permanently impact future
water availability.

3. Deforestation and soil degradation.

When trees and plants release moisture into
the atmosphere, clouds form and return the
moisture to the ground as rain. When forests
and vegetation disappear, less water is
available to feed the water cycle, making
entire regions more vulnerable to drought.

Drought Prevention and Preparation

 Weather cannot be controlled but by
limiting the climate change contributions,
reducing water waste, and using water
 more efficiently, we can prepare for—and
maybe even curb—future dry spells

Climate change mitigation

 The impact of climate change, including
more severe drought, can be mitigated
only when countries, cities, businesses,
and individuals shift away from the use of
climate-warming fossil fuels to cleaner
renewable energy sources. The Paris
Agreement, which was adopted by nearly
every nation in 2015 and aims to limit the
 earth’s warming over the next century to 2
degrees Celsius, or 1.5 degrees if possible,
lays the framework for global climate
action.

Demand Climate Action

 There’s plenty of room for individuals who
produce about four times more carbon
pollution than citizens elsewhere, on
 average—to fight climate change as well.
Actions include speaking to local and
congressional leaders about regional
environmental policies and finding ways to
cut carbon pollution from your daily life.
Urban water conservation and effiency
 Aging infrastructure—faulty meters,
crumbling pipes, leaky water mains lost
plenty of drinkable and potable water each
year. Meanwhile, a single leaky faucet—
releasing just three drips a minute—
wastes more than 100 gallons of water in
 a year. Local government units, cities,
water utilities, businesses, and citizens can
curb water waste by investing in climate-
smart strategies.

EL NIŇO – SOUTHERN OSCILLATION

(ENSO) CYCLE
Description
El Niño is defined by prolonged differences in
Pacific Ocean Sea surface temperatures when
compared with the average value. The
accepted definition is a warming or cooling of
at least 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) averaged over the
east-central tropical Pacific Ocean. Typically,
this anomaly happens at irregular intervals of
3– 7 years and lasts nine months to two years.
The average period length is 5 years. When
this warming or cooling occurs for only seven
to nine months, it is classified as El Niño/La
Niña "conditions"; when it occurs for more
than that period, it is classified as El Niño/La
Niña "episodes".The first signs of an El Niño
are:
 1. Rise in surface pressure over the Indian
Ocean, Indonesia, and Australia
2. Fall in air pressure over Tahiti and the rest
of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean
3. Trade winds in the south Pacific weaken or
head east
4. Warm air rises near Peru, causing rain in
the northern Peruvian deserts.

Warm water spreads from the west Pacific

and the Indian Ocean to the east Pacific. It
takes the rain with it, causing extensive
drought in the western Pacific and rainfall in
the normally dry eastern Pacific. El Niño's
warm rush of nutrient-poor tropical water,
heated by its eastward passage in the
Equatorial Current, replaces the cold, nutrient-
rich surface water of the Humboldt Current.
When El Niño conditions last for many months,
extensive ocean warming and the reduction in
Easterly Trade winds limits upwelling of cold
nutrient-rich deep water and its economic
impact to local fishing for an international
market can be serious.

Southern Oscillation
The Southern Oscillation is the atmospheric
component of El Niño. This component is an
oscillation in surface air pressure between the
tropical eastern and the western Pacific Ocean
waters. The strength of the Southern
Oscillation is measured by the Southern
Oscillation Index (SOI). The SOI is computed
from fluctuations in the surface air pressure
difference between Tahiti and Darwin,
Australia. El Niño episodes are associated with
negative values of the SOI, meaning that the
pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin
is relatively small. Low atmospheric pressure
tends to occur over warm water and high
pressure occurs over cold water, in part
because of deep convection over the warm
water. El Niño episodes are defined as
sustained warming of the central and eastern
tropical Pacific Ocean. This results in a
decrease in the strength of the Pacific trade
winds, and a reduction in rainfall over eastern
and northern Australia.

Effects of ENSO's Cool Phase (La Niña)

La Niña is the name for the cold phase of
ENSO, during which the cold pool in the
eastern Pacific intensifies and the trade winds
strengthen. The name La Niña originates from
Spanish, meaning "the girl", analogous to El
Niño meaning "the boy". It has also in the past
been called anti-El Niño, and El Viejo (meaning
"the old man").
Africa. La Niña results in wetter-than-normal
conditions in Southern Africa from December
to February, and drier-than-normal conditions
over equatorial East Africa over the same
period.
 Asia. During La Niña years, the formation of
tropical cyclones, along with the subtropical
ridge position, shifts westward across the
western Pacific ocean, which increases the
landfall threat to China. In March 2008, La
Niña caused a drop in sea surface
temperatures over Southeast Asia by an
amount of 2 °C. It also caused heavy rains
over Malaysia, Philippines, and Indonesia.
South America. During a time of La Niña,
drought plagues the coastal regions of Peru
and Chile. From December to February,
northern Brazil is wetter than normal.

Impact of El Niño in the Philippines

 ENSO has detrimental impacts on the
Philippine people, economy, poverty
levels, and agricultural sector. The country
has taken actions and enacted policies to
respond to ENSO events, but these have
not adequately mitigated the costs of
 ENSO impacts. That said, there are further
actions the country can take to better
prepare for these impacts.
 The Philippines is highly exposed to ENSO-
related climate and agricultural shocks.
ENSO describes naturally occurring ocean
and atmospheric temperature fluctuations,
which have major implications on global
weather patterns. Since 1980 there were
seven severe ENSO events, which include
both El Niño, ENSO’s warm phase, and La
Niña, ENSO’s cold phase. In 1982–1983, El
Niño– related droughts affected 450,000
hectares of farmland in the Philippines.
The most severe El Niño
ENSO’s most notable effect is on average
rainfall, which declines during El Niño and rises
during La Niña. These average rainfall
variations are most pronounced during the
driest six months of the year, December to
May. During El Niño in the Philippines, average
rainfall decreased by 14 percent in Luzon, the
northern island chain; 21 percent in Visayas,
the central island chain; and 35 percent in
Mindanao, the southern-most island chain.
During La Niña, by contrast, rainfall increased
by 31 percent in Luzon, 41 percent in Visayas,
and 19 percent in Mindanao (see Figure A for
El Nino’s rainfall patterns and El Niño–affected
areas in the Philippines).
Some evidence shows that ENSO events affect
the livestock and fisheries sectors. A report by
the Philippine Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic
Resources shows El Niño may reduce annual
fish catches by 20 percent in open waters and
by 23 percent in waters within 15 kilometers of
the shoreline. Despite this, national production
data also show fish production, from 1980 to
2015, has consistently risen in the Philippines
despite numerous ENSO events, seemingly
contradicting the ENSOfisheries link. ENSO’s
links with livestock declines is also poorly
established. That said, La Niña increases
annual “hot” days by 25, which can cause
increased heat stress on livestock and related
cost increases for producers.
ENSO’s impacts on agriculture have economy-
wide implications. Over 7 million hectares of
the Philippines’ 30 million hectares are devoted
to agriculture. Agriculture was only 12.5
percent of total gross domestic product (GDP)
in 2011. But, when downstream agricultural
processing, input production, and agriculture-
related trading and transporting are included,
the contribution of the entire agriculture food
system (AFS) was over 30 percent of GDP
Strong El Niño events lead to GDP losses,
while strong La Niña events lead to smaller
GDP gains. Simulations for this report show
that national GDP losses during a strong El
Niño event are $3.3 billion, while national GDP
gains during La Niña are $0.5 billion.
Percentage losses are larger in agriculture,
where GDP falls by nearly 7 percent. Sub-
nationally, GDP losses vary across regions
within the Philippines: agricultural GDP falls by
1.9 percent in Luzon during a strong El Niño,
but by 1.4 percent in Mindanao. Moderate La
Niña events saw some gains in Luzon and
Visayas, but small losses in Mindanao. Overall,
most of El Niño’s economic losses occur
outside of agriculture, while La Niña’s
agricultural impacts cause slightly greater
economic benefits in agriculture than the wider
economy. (Sutton et. al. 2019)
Health Consequences
of El Niño The health consequences of El Niño
is summarize below as shown in the next
diagram.
 Both droughts and flooding may trigger food
insecurity, increase malnutrition and thus
enhance vulnerability to infectious diseases;
  Droughts, flooding and intense rainfall
(including cyclones) may cause loss of life,
significant population displacement, water and
vector-borne disease outbreaks and may
damage or close health facilities, thus reducing
regular health service delivery and restricting
access to healthcare during the emergency
and well beyond the event;
 El Niño-related warmer temperatures may
result in vector-borne disease epidemics in
highland areas, which are too cold for vector
survival and disease transmission at other
times;
 Damaged or flooded sanitation
infrastructure may lead to water-borne
diseases;
 Extremely hot and dry conditions may lead
to heat waves, wildfires, increased smoke and
deteriorated air quality, causing or
exacerbating respiratory diseases and heat
stress;
 Populations already affected by a
humanitarian situation (e.g. in internally
displaced persons and refugee camps) face
heightened risk of suffering health
consequences of either wet or dry conditions.
 Globally, natural disasters such as droughts,
floods and storms kill more women than men,
and tend to kill women at a younger age.
These effects also interact with the nature of
the event and social status. The gender-gap
effects on life expectancy tend to be greater in
more severe disasters, and in places where the
socioeconomic status of women is particularly
low.