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Recent Social Security Initiatives in India

Jean Dreze and Reetika Khera

(Abstract)

There has been a major expansion of social security programmes in India during the last fifteen

years or so, along with wider recognition of economic and social rights. This paper discusses

five programmes that can be seen as partial foundations of a possible social security system

for India: school meals, child care services, employment guarantee, food subsidies and social

security pensions. The record of these programmes varies a great deal between Indian states,

but there is growing evidence that they make an important contribution to human well-being,

and also that the achievements of the leading states are gradually spreading to other states as

well. Much scope remains for extending these efforts: despite the recent expansion, India’s

social security system is still very limited in international perspective. The paper also discusses

some general issues of social policy in India, such as the arguments for universalization versus

targeting and the value of a rights approach to social security.

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Recent Social Security Initiatives in India

Until recently, India’s social security system was largely confined to the formal sector of the

economy. Social benefits such as old-age pensions, health insurance and maternity benefits did

not extend much beyond the public sector. The unorganised workforce – more than 90 per cent

of all workers – was largely left to its own devices (National Commission for Enterprises in

the Unorganised Sector, 2006).

During the last fifteen years, however, there have been important initiatives to put in place

more inclusive forms of social security. Today, India has five major programmes that can be

seen as partial foundations of a possible social security system: school meals; the Integrated

Child Development Services; the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act; the public

distribution system; and social security pensions for widows, the elderly and disabled persons.

Some of them, like the public distribution system, existed earlier, but in a very limited and

ineffective form. As discussed further on, there is an important complementarity between these

different interventions, both in terms of the needs they address and in terms of the form of

support involved. Other elements, such as maternity entitlements, are in the process of being

put in place.1 As things stand, however, these five programmes account for the bulk of public

expenditure on social protection. Our aim in this review is to give the reader a sense of how

these programmes were initiated, what they have achieved so far, and the debates that have

surrounded them. Given the broad sweep of the paper, it will not be possible to go into the

details of all these issues, but we shall try to provide interested readers with some guidance to

further readings.

Before examining each of these foundational programmes, we shall discuss some overarching

features of India’s recent social security initiatives. Two issues are of particular interest. First,

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the reference period has been associated with a growing emphasis on legal entitlements as

opposed to discretionary benefits. In fact, except for social security pensions, the benefits of

all these programmes are now protected by national legislations or Supreme Court orders.

Second, this period has seen important changes in the methods used to define and identify

households eligible to various social benefits. Specifically, there has been a move away from

targeting “below poverty line” (BPL) households, in favour of alternative methods. These

issues are discussed in the next two sections.

This article draws not only on the academic literature but also on the insights we have gained

from monitoring these social security initiatives in a number of Indian states. In particular, we

have learnt a great deal from a series of field surveys conducted with student volunteers from

2002 onwards. These include, for instance, a 2011 survey of the public distribution system in

nine major Indian states, and a 2013 survey of the five programmes mentioned earlier in ten

states. We shall use the findings of these surveys along with those of national surveys such as

the National Sample Survey, the India Human Development Survey and the National Family

Health Survey.

Eight Indian states figured in many of these field surveys: Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Himachal

Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odisha, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh. We shall use this

reference group of eight states (the ‘reference states’ for short) from time to time to give the

reader a sense of the diversity of social policies across the country, without giving cumbersome

details for all Indian states. The reference states account for nearly half of India’s population,

and include states with widely varying degrees of involvement in the field of social policy.

However, this group is not meant to be representative of India as a whole, and indeed it is

somewhat biased towards poorer and less well-governed states.

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The eight reference states include two (Tamil Nadu and Himachal Pradesh) that are known,

from earlier literature, to have a relatively good record of efficient and equitable provision of

public services, and better social indicators than most other Indian states. They also include

some states (Bihar, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh) that are known to have the opposite records

– poor governance, massive corruption, extreme inequality and dismal social indicators.2 When

presenting comparative data for the reference states, we shall place these two groups at the top

and bottom of the list, respectively, to make the contrasts clearer. In between are three

intermediate states (Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Rajasthan) that also used to have a very poor

record of social development, but have significantly improved in recent years. As discussed

further on, there is some evidence of a growing ability of the lagging states to emulate the

achievements of the pioneer states in the field of social policy. This development has an

important bearing on the scope for further progress in the future.

1. The Rights Approach to Social Security

The coverage of the five social security programmes mentioned earlier has markedly expanded

in the last 15 years or so. The trend is illustrated in Table 1, based on the first two rounds of

the India Human Development Survey, a useful source of comparable data for 2004-5 and

2011-2 respectively.3 This expansion has been associated with a gradual recasting of Indian

social security programmes in a rights framework. More precisely, this applies to ‘centrally-

sponsored’ programmes, initiated by the central government. At the state level, some Indian

states have adopted important social security legislations (e.g. the Chhattisgarh Food Security

Act 2012), others have continued to implement social security schemes at the discretion of the

government.

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Except for social security pensions, other benefits discussed in this paper are now legal

entitlements under the National Food Security Act 2013 (NFSA) and the National Rural

Employment Guarantee Act 2005 (NREGA). Some (notably midday meals and child

development services) initially became legal rights under Supreme Court orders, and were later

included in the NFSA.4 Aside from these two social security legislations, other important laws

aimed at guaranteeing economic and social rights have been enacted in India during the last

fifteen years, notably the Right to Information Act 2005 and the Right to Education Act 2009.

The basic argument for the rights approach is that it gives some power to the unprivileged

(Drèze, 2004; Joshi, 2010). Impressive as it is in many respects, Indian democracy often gives

little weight to the needs and demands of disadvantaged groups.5 Social security legislations

help them to secure some basic entitlements, e.g. those mentioned in the Indian Constitution

under the Directive Principles of State Policy. The rights approach also helps to impart a

continuity and durability that is often sorely lacking in ad hoc ‘schemes’.

[Table 1 around here]

Table 1
Expansion of Social Security Programmes, 2004-12
2004-5 2011-2
Midday meals: Proportion of children aged 6-14 years who are
receiving a midday meal at school (%)

All children 37 50
Children enrolled in government schools 62 81

Integrated Child Development Services: Proportion of pregnant


women and young children who receive any benefits from ICDS

Pregnant womena 20 53
Young children 27 57

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Employment guarantee: Proportion of rural households that worked


on NREGA or similar local public works in the past 12 months (%) 0.5b 29

Public Distribution System: Proportion of households that bought


rice or wheat from the PDS in the past 30 days (%) 27 52

Social security pensions: Proportion of widows and elderly persons


(age 60+) receiving a social security pension (%)

Widows 7 22
Elderly women 7 19
Elderly men 6 22

a
Proportion of women who received some benefit from ICDS during pregnancy, among those
who gave birth during the preceding five years. The next row indicates whether the
corresponding child received any benefits from ICDS.
b
Under ‘Sampoorna Grameen Rozgar Yojana’ and Food-for-Work programmes.
Source: India Human Development Survey (IHDS-1 and IHDS-2), special tabulations.

Giving legal rights to the underprivileged empowers them in at least three ways (Drèze, 2004).

First, it enables them, in principle at least, to defend their rights in court if need be. Second,

legal rights place clear responsibilities on the government, and help to hold the government

accountable to these responsibilities through democratic means (for instance, elections),

without necessarily going to court. Third, legal rights can influence public perceptions and

social norms. These can make a difference even in the absence of organised action. To

illustrate, India’s Right to Information Act has not only created a powerful right of access to

public records for all citizens but also promoted a culture of transparency in public

administration. Government documents are now routinely placed in the public domain even

without anyone invoking the Act to access them.

This is not to say that the rights approach is unproblematic. There are obvious limits to what it

can achieve in the absence of larger administrative, legal and political reforms (Aiyar and

Walton, 2014). Legal entitlements, for instance, lose some of their cutting edge when the legal

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system is largely dysfunctional: Indian courts are clogged with millions of pending cases. 6 The

fact that a law is difficult to modify helps to protect social programmes from being diluted or

withdrawn, but it also imparts some rigidity in social policy. Further, national laws often lead

to excessive centralization. We shall return to some of these issues.

2. Targeting, Universalization and Self-Selection

The rights approach has implications for one of the most difficult aspects of many social

security programmes: the identification of eligible persons or households. It may help to

discuss the problem with initial reference to a specific scheme, say social security pensions for

widows. Like many other welfare schemes in India, this one used to be restricted to poor

households: only ‘below poverty line’ (BPL) widows were eligible. If a widow from a well-off

household secured a pension, this would have counted as an ‘inclusion error’. If a poor widow

failed to get a pension, that might have been called an ‘exclusion error’. But exclusion errors

did not matter much, because it was understood that only some widows could be helped (even

within the BPL category), due to financial constraints.

In the rights approach, on the other hand, exclusion errors are a major concern. If all poor

widows are deemed to have a right to social support, then it is important to ensure that as few

as possible are left behind. This can be seen as an argument for relaxing the eligibility criteria,

and perhaps even for ‘universalization’ of widow pensions. Indeed, the Indian experience with

identifying BPL households has been very sobering. Typically, BPL households are sought to

be identified through proxy criteria such as housing characteristics or land ownership. This

process is fraught with conceptual as well as practical problems. At least three independent

national surveys (the National Sample Survey, the third National Family Health Survey and

the first India Human Development Survey) suggest that nearly half of all poor households in

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rural India did not have a BPL card around 2005.7 In this situation, one way of reducing

exclusion errors is to cast the net wider than the restrictive and unreliable BPL category, or

even to extend pensions to all widows.

Further, one can take the view that pensions should be regarded, in any case, as a right of all

widows – not just poor widows. Indeed, Indian widows often lead very deprived lives even in

relatively well-off households (Chen, 1998, 2000). Having some secure income of their own

can help them to avoid extreme hardship and enhance their status within the household. This

would reinforce the case for universalization.

A further argument for universalization is that targeting (whether based on the BPL category

or other criteria) is divisive. When everyone has a stake in the system, it has a much greater

chance to work. As Richard Titmuss pointed out long ago, ‘services for the poor will always

be poor services’.8

Universalization, of course, tends to be expensive, since it involves a major expansion of

coverage compared with targeted benefits. In India, about one third of all rural households

belonged to the BPL category in 2005 (Drèze and Khera, 2010, Table 1), implying that, keeping

per-capita benefits constant, universalization would be about three times as expensive as BPL

targeting. This is one reason why the principle did not make much headway in India for a long

time (except in a few states, notably Tamil Nadu). Over time, however, universalization

became more affordable and acceptable in various contexts.

All the social security initiatives discussed in this paper were sought to be restricted to BPL

households at some stage. In every case, BPL targeting proved problematic or undesirable and

was abandoned in due course. In some cases, ‘self-selection’ came to the rescue. For instance,

NREGA is based on the principle of self-selection: every rural adult is entitled to apply for

employment. As discussed below, the self-selection approach seems to work in this case, in the

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sense that most of those who are willing to do manual labour for a subsistence wage belong to

poor households. Similarly, there is a strong element of self-selection in the midday meal

programme, in so far as children attending government schools tend to come from

underprivileged households. As far as social security pensions are concerned, the trend today

is towards universalization.

It is mainly the Public Distribution System (PDS) that has triggered much debate on targeting

versus universalization. Targeting led to massive exclusion errors, but universalization of the

PDS is an expensive affair. In recent years, many states have moved towards a more inclusive

PDS, without necessarily going all the way to universalization as Tamil Nadu did (with some

success) a long time ago. Under the National Food Security Act, some states are adopting a

new approach known as the ‘exclusion approach’.9 This approach is based on the idea that

instead of targeting poor households, it is safer to exclude well-off households (using simple

and transparent exclusion criteria), and include everyone else. This reduces the risk of

exclusion errors, but is not as expensive as universalization. In at least some of the states that

have followed this route, the transition from BPL targeting to the exclusion approach has been

associated with a major improvement in the PDS.10 However, excluding well-off households

is not a simple operation by any means. It also tends to create a relatively powerful constituency

of households that have no stake in the PDS and may even try to sabotage it.

In India as elsewhere, the debate on targeting versus universalization is far from settled. The

merits of each approach need to be seen in context – the case for, say, universal pensions is not

the same as the case for a universal PDS. The context includes the state’s capability to collect

and handle household data. There have been significant developments in this regard, such as

the completion of the Socio-Economic and Caste Census in 2011 (in a more systematic and

professional mode than the earlier BPL Censuses) as well as state-specific attempts to create

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reliable databases for social security programmes. Detailed studies of these experiments,

however, are still awaited.

Finally, it is important to mention that universalization does not mean ‘uniformity’ of

entitlements. The basic principle is that everyone should be included in the system, but this

does not preclude special provisions for the most vulnerable groups. India’s PDS, for instance,

includes special food entitlements for the poorest of the poor, known as ‘Antyodaya’

households. This does not conflict with the universalization principle.

3. School Meals

Turning to specific programmes, we begin with school meals because it is the simplest and

perhaps most successful of the five initiatives being discussed. The idea is not new: in some

Indian states, notably Tamil Nadu and Gujarat, school meals have been in place for a long time.

They were supposed to be extended across the country under the National Programme of

Nutritional Support for Primary Education (NPNSPE), initiated by the central government in

1995. For several years, however, only dry rations (monthly quotas of wheat or rice) were

distributed to school children under the NPNSPE. On 28 November 2001, in response to a

public-interest petition on the right to food, the Supreme Court of India directed all state

governments to start providing cooked midday meals in primary schools.11

The implementation of Supreme Court orders on midday meals was far from instantaneous.

Initially, many states pleaded financial penury. In some states, the scheme also faced opposition

from teachers and upper-caste parents. However, the progress of the scheme was closely

watched by the Supreme Court, the ‘commissioners’ appointed by the Court for this purpose,

India’s ‘right to food campaign’, and the media. Within three years or so, school meals were in

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place across the country. Initially, they were very frugal (sometimes just rice and turmeric), but

the menu improved steadily over time.

The scheme received a further boost in 2004, when the National Common Minimum

Programme of the first United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government expressed a strong

commitment to a ‘national cooked nutritious mid-day meal scheme’. In pursuance of that

commitment, there was a substantial increase in financial allocations for midday meals in the

2005-6 Union Budget (see Figure 1 below). This helped the state governments to continue

improving the quality of midday meals. In 2008-9, central assistance for midday meals was

extended to the upper-primary stage (Classes 6 to 8). Today, India’s midday meal scheme

covers more than 100 million children at a cost of Rs 97 billion per year (a little less than 0.1

per cent of GDP).12

Aside from pulses and vegetables, many states have started providing eggs with the school

meal at least once a week – up to five times a week in Tamil Nadu. This has further enhanced

the nutrition value of midday meals. Eggs are not only an excellent source of protein for

growing children but also a compact source of other nutrients such as vitamin A, fat and

calcium – in fact, virtually all essential nutrients except vitamin C (Applegate, 2000; American

Council on Science and Health, 2002). The compactness aspect is significant as young children

have small stomachs and need nutrient-dense food. Eggs also have the advantage of a longer

shelf life than comparable alternatives such as milk or bananas. Further, they cannot be diluted

or adulterated, and the quantity is easy to monitor, reducing the risk of corruption. Some states,

however, are resisting the provision of eggs in school meals, partly for fear of antagonising

upper-caste vegetarian lobbies.

School meals have at least four types of potential social benefits. First, they help to reduce

classroom hunger, and, if the meal is nutritious, contribute to better child nutrition. Second,

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school meals often enhance school participation, and possibly also pupil achievements, in so

far as better-fed children are better learners. Third, school meals can contribute to social equity.

For instance, they help to counter caste prejudices, by teaching children to sit together and

share a common meal. Class inequalities, too, are attenuated when midday meals facilitate

school participation among unprivileged children. Finally, school meals have significant

gender-related benefits. For instance, they create a valuable source of remunerative

employment for women: about 2.4 million women in India work as cooks or helpers under the

midday meal programme.13 Further, school meals liberate women (especially those employed

outside the house) from the burden of having to feed children during the day.

Some of these benefits are relatively well established, including the positive effects of midday

meals on school attendance, pupil achievements, food security and child nutrition (Drèze and

Kingdon, 2001; Drèze and Goyal, 2003; Khera, 2006, 2013; Drèze and Khera, 2009a; Afridi,

2010, 2011; Afridi, et al., 2013; Singh et al., 2014; Jayaraman and Simroth, 2015; Chakraborty

and Jayaraman, 2016). For instance, one early study (Afridi, 2010) based on random

assignment of dietary recalls between school and non-school days in Madhya Pradesh found

that the school meal reduced the daily calorie deficit among school children by 30 per cent and

the protein deficit by 100 per cent. Similarly, Jayaraman and Simroth (2015), using ‘difference

in differences’ methods involving comparisons between areas within and without school meals

as well as between private and government schools, found significant effects of school meals

on school enrolment, especially in Grade 1. Using a similar method, Chakraborty and

Jayaraman (2016) find that ‘midday meals have a dramatic positive effect on learning

achievement’. All three studies suggest that India’s school-meal programme is highly cost-

effective (in terms of enhancing nutrition, school participation and learning achievements,

respectively).

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The benefits of school meals in terms of better socialization of children are a little more

speculative. Since restrictions on food sharing (or ‘inter-dining’) play an important part in the

enforcement of the caste system, midday meals probably help to break down caste barriers. On

the other hand, the midday meal itself is sometimes a site of caste discrimination, for instance

when upper-caste parents object to the meal being prepared by a Dalit (scheduled-caste) woman

(Thorat and Lee, 2005; Ramachandran and Naorem, 2013). The value of midday meals as a

means of bringing about greater social equity depends on how these prejudices are handled by

school authorities and the local community.

India’s midday meal scheme still has some way to go in achieving satisfactory quality

standards, particularly in the worst-governed states. On 16 July 2013, twenty-three school

children died in Bihar after ingesting cooking oil that had been carried in a bottle formerly used

for storing insecticide (Khera, 2013). Milder incidents of food poisoning have also occurred in

other states from time to time. Each of these incidents is a setback for the scheme, but also a

wake-up call that often leads to stronger safeguards and tighter supervision. India’s midday

meal scheme is unlikely to be withdrawn – it is now a permanent legal right of school children

under the National Food Security Act. Judging from the experience so far, the scheme is likely

to make a growing contribution to the nutrition, education and wellbeing of Indian children.

4. The Integrated Child Development Services

India’s Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS) provides nutrition, health and pre-

school education services for children under the age of six years. These services are delivered

through child care centres (or anganwadis) staffed by trained local women known as

anganwadi workers and helpers.14 Children in the age group of 3-6 years are expected to go to

the anganwadi every day for food, games, health checkups and so on. For younger children,

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monthly or weekly ‘take-home rations’ (THR) are provided along with some health services

such as immunization. ICDS also provides some nutrition and health services to pregnant and

lactating women as well as adolescent girls.

Though the ICDS had an earlier start (in 1975) than the midday meal scheme, it has been slower

to take root. The Supreme Court order of 2001 on midday meals, mentioned earlier, also called

for nutritious food to be provided to all children below the age of six years under ICDS. In

December 2006, the Court declared that all children under six (as well as all pregnant women,

lactating mothers and adolescent girls) were entitled to all ICDS services as a matter of right.

These orders led to a massive expansion in the reach of ICDS: there are nearly 1.4 million

anganwadis in India today, serving more than 90 million children (the cost is around 0.1 per

cent of India’s GDP). However, progress in the quality of services has been slower.

The Focus on Children Under Six (FOCUS) report presents a detailed picture of ICDS in 2004,

based on a survey of about 200 randomly-selected anganwadis in six states.15 As with other

programmes, striking inter-state variations emerged. Three of the six sample states (Himachal

Pradesh, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu) were classified as ‘active’, and the other three

(Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh) as ‘dormant’ as far as ICDS is concerned. The

active states, by and large, had lively and widely appreciated anganwadis where children were

receiving most of the prescribed services. In the dormant states, however, anganwadis were

seen mainly as feeding centres. The feeding programmes themselves left much to be desired,

especially in states like Uttar Pradesh where low-quality ‘ready-to-eat’ products (supplied by

corrupt contractors) were being served instead of hot cooked food. Even in the dormant states,

however, a majority of mothers appreciated the potential value of the programme.

A resurvey conducted in the same districts ten years later found significant quality

improvements (Centre for Equity Studies, 2016). For instance, two of the formerly dormant

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states (Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan) had a much more active ICDS programme by 2014.

Overall, taking all six states together, the improvements (e.g. in quantity and quality of food

supplements, maintenance of growth charts, regularity of child attendance) are modest, as

Table 2 illustrates. Nevertheless, it is interesting that quality improvements took place during

a phase of rapid quantitative expansion. As quantitative expansion becomes less urgent, there

is likely to be greater scope for qualitative improvements in the near future.

[Table 2 around here]

Table 2
Small Leap Forward: India’s Anganwadis in 2004 and 2014
2004 2014
Proportion (%) of sample AWCs with their own building 33 87
Perceptions of sample mothers
Proportion (%) who stated that their child attends the AWC ‘regularly’ 50 80
Proportion (%) who said that the following services were provided at the
AWC:

Supplementary nutrition 76 79
Immunization 43 81
Home visits 29 46
Referral service 28 24
Growth monitoring 63 70
Pre-school education 45 53

Proportion (%) who:

Were dissatisfied with the quality of food provided at the AWC 24 12


Felt that the quantity of food was adequate 59 79
Reported that PSE activities are taking place at the AWC 45 53
Felt that PSE activities benefit their child 54 82
Felt that ICDS is important for their child’s welfare 48 84

Perceptions of survey teams


Proportion (%) of sample AWCs whose overall functioning was rated as 34 23
‘poor’ or ‘very poor’
Proportion (%) of sample villages where the motivation of mothers to 33 50
send their children to the AWC appears to be ‘high’ or ‘very high’
AWC = anganwadi centre PSE = pre-school education

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Source: Centre for Equity Studies (2016), based on the FOCUS survey and re-survey. The
FOCUS survey, conducted in 2004, involved unannounced visits to about 200 randomly-
selected anganwadis of six states (Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan,
Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh) and interviews with a random sample of about 500 women with
at least one child below six years.

Further evidence of slow but steady progress in the performance of ICDS has recently emerged

from the Rapid Survey on Children 2013-14. Table 3 presents a sample of ICDS-related

indicators for the reference states based on that survey (and also, where available, the

corresponding figures for 2005-6). Here again, striking contrasts between different states are

evident. To illustrate, a useful indicator of the functionality of anganwadis is whether growth

charts are being maintained for children under three. This is now the norm in the leading states

– not only Tamil Nadu and Himachal Pradesh, but also Chhattisgarh and Odisha, where the

standards of functionality of ICDS now look quite similar to those of Tamil Nadu and Himachal

Pradesh. On the other hand, growth charts are still rarely maintained in Bihar, Jharkhand and

Uttar Pradesh.

Looking at change over time, over a period of eight years (2005-6 to 2013-14), the

improvements look relatively modest once again, yet significant considering that they took

place at a time of rapid quantitative expansion of ICDS. More importantly perhaps, there have

been major improvements in some of the states where ICDS used to be virtually non-functional,

such as Bihar. In fact, among all major states, Bihar achieved the largest improvements in child

immunization and coverage of antenatal care during this period, starting of course from a very

low base (Drèze and Khera, 2015b). To put it another way, there are tentative signs of some

sort of ‘convergence’ over time towards the standards of the leading states. One can read a

similar pattern in the context of midday meals: fifteen years ago, midday meals were confined

to a few better-governed states such as Tamil Nadu and Gujarat, but today they are in place

across the country.

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[Table 3 around here]

Among other recent experiences of interest, in terms of emulation of the leading states, is that

of Odisha – one of India’s poorest states, not known for exemplary governance. In a recent

survey of ICDS in four districts of Odisha, discussed in Khera (2015), we found that

anganwadis opened regularly and provided most of the prescribed services: supplementary

nutrition is part of the daily routine, with an improved menu (including eggs twice or thrice a

week), and pre-school education is taking root (at more than three-quarters of anganwadis,

children were able to recite a poem when asked). Health services such as growth monitoring,

immunization and ante-natal care were also provided regularly in the sample anganwadis, with

the help of the local Auxiliary Nurse Midwife (ANM) and Accredited Social Health Activist

(ASHA), India’s frontline health workers. Odisha has also developed a relatively successful

model of decentralized THR production through women’s self-help groups. THR in Odisha

also includes eggs for children below the age of three as well as pregnant and lactating women.

This is an important innovation: children below three are the most critical age group, yet ICDS

has tended to be more focused, so far, on children in the age group of three to six years

(Gragnolati et al., 2006).

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Table 3 ICDS In The Reference States, 2013-14


Infrastructure indicators (% of Proportion of Children Pregnant women who had Pregnant women
anganwadis with specified facility) AWCs where aged 12-23 ante-natal checkupsa (%) who receive
growth charts of months who supplementary
children below 3 are fully nutrition from the
Functional Toilet Electricity years was immunized At least one Three or anganwadi (%)
baby prepared (%) (%) more
weighing
scale
Tamil Nadu 86 58 83 78 76 (81) 98 (99) 92 (97) 46 (50)
Himachal P. 87 71 46 65 80 (74) 91 (90) 58 (63) 66 (34)
Chhattisgarh 88 35 23 64 67 (49) 96 (89) 80 (55) 65 (64)
Odisha 89 21 25 67 62 (52) 92 (87) 75 (61) 61 (45)
Rajasthan 58 32 15 35 61 (27) 82 (76) 51 (41) 34 (17)
Bihar 57 20 14 17 60 (33) 85 (34) 33 (17) 22 (1)
Jharkhand 58 27 23 20 65 (34) 81 (61) 47 (36) 47 (35)
Uttar Pradesh 50 (46)b 20 12 47 (23) 62 (67) 39 (26) 24 (10)
Reference 63 38 28 32 59 (38) 79 (69) 52 (41) 34 (21)
statesc
INDIA 72 43 32 44 65 (44) 85 (77) 63 (51) 41 (21)
a
Base: Women who had a live birth during the 35 months preceding the survey. b In Uttar Pradesh, many anganwadis are run from private homes.
c
Population-weighted average of state-specific figures.
AWC = Anganwadi centre; ANM = Auxiliary Nurse Midwife; AWW = Anganwadi worker; ASHA = Accredited Social Health Activist
Sources: Rapid Survey on Children 2013-14, state factsheets (available at http://wcd.nic.in/acts/rapid-survey-children-rsoc-2013-14); figures in brackets are the
corresponding figures for 2005-6 (from the third National Family Health Survey), where available.

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Turning from processes to outcomes, evidence has recently emerged of the impact of ICDS on

child nutrition and related indicators. The expansion of ICDS during the last ten years has been

associated with accelerated improvement in anthropometric indicators of child nutrition as well

as in other outcomes relevant to ICDS, such as child vaccination and institutional deliveries

(Drèze, 2015; Sinha, 2015; Narayan, 2016). Several econometric studies based on household

survey data have also found evidence of positive effects of ICDS on child nutrition (Kandpal,

2011; Hazarika and Viren, 2013; Jain, 2015; Mittal, 2015; Nandi and Laxminarayan, 2016;

Nandi et al., 2016). For instance, Kandpal (2011), using propensity score matching methods to

control for endogenous programme placement, finds that ICDS increases children’s average

height-for-age z-score by 6 per cent. Using similar methods, but looking specifically at daily

feeding of children below the age of two years, Monica Jain (2015) also finds that nutrition

supplements have a substantial effect on height, especially among girls. Both studies point out,

based on tentative cost-benefit calculations, that ICDS has substantial economic returns. Note

also that both studies are based on data from the third National Family Health Survey, collected

in 2005-6 – at an early stage of recent efforts to expand and improve ICDS. If the programme

already had substantial effects on child nutrition and high economic returns at that time, it is

likely to be all the more valuable today.

5. The National Rural Employment Guarantee Act16

The use of public works as a tool of social security, particularly in the context of drought relief,

has a long history in India and elsewhere (Drèze, 1990; Subbarao et al., 2013). Compared with

other approaches, public works have two useful features: self-selection (people decide for

themselves whether they need social support) and the creation (or at least possible creation) of

productive assets. After a prolonged drought in the early 1970s, when relief works reached an

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unprecedented scale, the state of Maharashtra in India enacted a pioneering Employment

Guarantee Act in 1977. Maharashtra’s ‘employment guarantee scheme’ employed nearly half

a million persons on an average day in the late 1970s and 1980s, but declined sharply from the

early 1990s onwards (Mahendra Dev and Ranade, 2001).

In August 2005, a National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA) inspired by

Maharashtra’s employment guarantee scheme was passed unanimously by the Indian

Parliament.17 The Act came into force on 2 February 2006 in 200 of India’s poorest districts,

and was extended to the whole country on 1 April 2008. Under the Act, any adult residing in

rural areas who demands work has to be employed on local public works within 15 days.

Failing that, an unemployment allowance is due. Other important entitlements under the Act

include payment of wages within 15 days, basic worksite facilities, and minimum wages. The

minimum wage guarantee, however, was withdrawn in 2009, when the central government

started exercising its right to fix NREGA wages in different states instead of endorsing the

states’ own minimum wages. The practice, since then, is to revise NREGA wages upward every

year based on state-specific price indexes (keeping real wages constant).

The NREGA includes a number of provisions aimed at ensuring that the local administration

is accountable to rural workers. That is the purpose, for instance, of the unemployment

allowance. Similarly, if wages are not paid within 15 days, workers are entitled to

compensation. A penalty clause also makes NREGA functionaries liable to a fine if they fail

to do their duty under the Act. Central and state governments, however, have tended to resist

these accountability provisions, and short of going to court (which is cumbersome and

expensive), NREGA workers have no obvious way of putting pressure on the government to

enforce them. As a result, lack of administrative accountability has been a serious problem for

NREGA since its inception (Ambasta et al., 2008; Khera, 2011a; Aggarwal, 2016).

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A couple of examples may help. One of the main challenges in making good use of NREGA

funds is corruption. Early on, ‘muster rolls’ (work attendance sheets) used to be routinely

inflated by corrupt functionaries or middlemen as a means of siphoning off NREGA funds.

Later on, safeguards were introduced, such as mandatory ‘social audits’ of NREGA works.

These safeguards, though not always enforced as intended, helped to curb corruption, but their

effectiveness has been severely compromised by the reluctance of state governments to take

action against corrupt officials.18

Another example relates to the lack of timeliness in wage payments. Delays in wage payments

have plagued NREGA ever since the central government made it compulsory for wages to be

paid through banks or post offices, in mid-2008. Bank payments greatly helped to contain

corruption, but they also led to much foot-dragging: with the corruption tap turned off or at

least tightened, many functionaries lost interest in the scheme. Since there are many steps in

the payment process (filing of attendance data, work measurement, preparation of payment

advice, and so on), serial foot-dragging can cause long delays. Bank processes themselves often

take time and add to the chain of delays. Here again, the resilience of the problem reflects a

lack of accountability at every level: while NREGA workers wait week after week (or even

month after month) for their wages, no-one is held responsible.

In spite of these and other hurdles, the NREGA has led to some major achievements. According

to official data, the programme generated more than two billion person-days of work every

year from 2008-9 to 2013-4, with a peak of 2.8 billion (54 days each for 53 million rural

households) in 2009-10 – see Table 4.19 Independent data from the National Sample Survey

suggest lower figures, but the gap between the two sources has narrowed over time. By 2011-

2, about 68 to 78 per cent of official NREGA employment was reflected in National Sample

Survey data, and about 90 per cent of it was reflected in the second Indian Human Development

Survey.20 About half of all NREGA workers are women (much in contrast with low rates of

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female participation in the Indian workforce as a whole), and more than half belong to

scheduled castes or scheduled tribes. The effectiveness of NREGA ‘self-targeting’ is

reasonably well established.21

[Table 4 around here]

Table 4: NREGA Factsheet

2009-10 2014-15
Employment generation (person-days)
Total (million) 2836 1662
Per household employed under NREGA 54 40
Per rural householda 17 10

Work participation
Number of persons employed (million) n/a 62
Proportion of rural households employed (%) 31 25

Share of marginalized groups in NREGA employment


(%)
Women 48 55
Scheduled tribes 21 17
Scheduled castes 30 22
Expenditure on NREGA
Total expenditure (Rs billion) 379 360
Total expenditure as a proportion of GDP (%) 0.6 0.3
Share of wages in total expenditure (%) 67 67
a
Total person-days divided by number of rural households as per Census of India 2011.
Sources: Government of India (2012), Table A, p.4, for 2009-10. Official NREGA website
(nrega.nic.in), ‘At a Glance’ section, for 2014-5. The exchange rate for Indian rupees (Rs) was
around 46 per US dollar in 2009-10 and 65 per US dollar in 2014-5.

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Table 5, based on National Sample Survey data, presents a sample of NREGA indicators for

the reference states. As earlier studies have noted (Dutta et al., 2012), NREGA employment

and expenditure are not particularly well correlated with poverty across states – the self-

targeting process operates mainly within states. The main reason is that some of the poorer

states, like Bihar, have low levels of NREGA employment due to political inertia and weak

administrative capabilities. Similarly, the participation of women in NREGA, though high in

most states, is quite low (even below the mandatory minimum of 33 per cent) in some of the

poorest states, such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. In 2009-10, NREGA wage rates were lower

than market wages in some states and higher in others, with little difference between the two

at the all-India level.

[Table 5 around here.]

As one might expect, the expansion of public employment under NREGA led to some

acceleration in the growth of agricultural wages. After stagnating for the first half of the 2000s,

agricultural wages grew at around 3 to 4 per cent per year in real terms during the second half

(Drèze and Sen, 2013, Table 7.1). The break was particularly sharp for women workers. In

itself, this pattern does not establish that NREGA was the driving force behind the acceleration

of wage growth, but several econometric studies confirm that the programme had a substantial

impact on rural wages (Azam, 2011; Berg et al., 2012; Imbert and Papp, 2015b; Muralidharan

et al., 2016). By raising wages in the private sector, NREGA also generates important second-

round income increases for rural workers (Imbert and Papp, 2015b). One recent study, based

on a large-scale randomized controlled trial (RCT) in Andhra Pradesh, even suggests that the

second-round effects account for the bulk of the impact of NREGA on the earnings of low-

income households (Muralidharan et al., 2016). In some areas, upward pressure on private-

sector wages has generated some opposition to NREGA from employers, including large

farmers and the corporate sector.

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Large-scale employment generation, effective self-targeting and second-round wage increases

have produced substantial benefits for the rural poor. These benefits are best-documented for

Andhra Pradesh (and to some extent Tamil Nadu), where the state government has actively

promoted NREGA and extensive survey data are available.22 For other states, the evidence is

patchy, but consistent with the hypothesis that NREGA has a substantial impact on rural

poverty. Klonner and Oldiges (2014), for instance, estimate (based on a regression

discontinuity model) that NREGA reduces lean-season poverty by half for scheduled-caste and

scheduled-tribe households. However, in states with low levels of NREGA employment

generation and high levels of corruption, such as Bihar, the impact of the programme on rural

poverty is very limited as things stand (Dutta et al., 2014).

On the productive value of NREGA assets, there is a major information gap. Media reports,

focusing as they tend to do on negative stories, often create an impression that most NREGA

assets are useless. This impression is not borne out by recent research. 23 The most

comprehensive study on this, a detailed survey of 4,100 NREGA assets scattered over 100

villages of Maharashtra (Ranaware et al., 2015) found that 87% of the sample works were

functional and 75% contributed directly or indirectly to better agriculture. An overwhelming

majority (90%) of the users of these NREGA works considered them “very useful” or

“somewhat useful”. Similarly, an analysis of 100 randomly-selected NREGA wells in

Jharkhand (Bhaskar et al., 2016) estimates that the wells have a financial rate of return of 6 per

cent or so in real terms, based on their impact on agricultural productivity alone. It is, however,

difficult to generalize from this limited evidence.

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Table 5: NREGA in the Reference States, 2009-10

Person-days of Per-capita Proportion of rural households working on Share of women Average wage rate
employment expenditure on NREGAa (%) in NREGA (Rs/day)
NREGA (Rs) employment (%)

Per Per rural All Scheduled Scheduled NREGA Casual


employed household households castes tribes labour
household
Tamil Nadu 58 25 555 34 52 (29) 83 72 111
Himachal P. 64 22 936 33 41 39 46 110 140
Chhattisgarh 44 24 723 48 44 52 49 82 69
Odisha 38 7 281 22 22 32 36 106 76
Rajasthan 69 47 1,133 62 65 82 67 87 126
Bihar 32 7 214 10 19 (9) 30 98 79
Jharkhand 43 18 586 19 27 20 34 98 101
Uttar Pradesh 58 14 389 16 33 (14) 22 100 94
INDIA 54 17 464 25 34 42 48 90 93
a
Figures in brackets may be unreliable due to small sample (less than 100 households). The overall proportion of rural households employed on NREGA in
2009-10 according to NSS data (25% – last row of this table) is a little lower than the corresponding figure from official NREGA statistics (31% - see Table 4).
Sources: Person-days of employment: Government of India (2012), Table 6.4, and Government of India (2009). Other figures: Dutta et al. (2012) Tables 1, 2,
6 and 7 (all based on National Sample Survey data, except for ‘per-capita expenditure on NREGA’, calculated from official data available at http:\ \nrega.nic.in).

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The value of NREGA goes much beyond these relatively standard economic benefits. For

instance, the programme has helped to revive the institutions of local democracy in rural India,

such as Gram Panchayats (village councils) and Gram Sabhas (village assemblies). These

institutions, indeed, play a central role in the implementation of NREGA at every step, from

planning of works to social audits. Similarly, NREGA makes important contributions to

women’s empowerment and gender equality, bearing in mind that a vast majority of women in

rural India have very limited opportunities for remunerated employment (Srivastava and

Srivastava, 2010; Drèze and Sen, 2013). One survey found that only 30 per cent of female

NREGA workers had earned any cash income other than NREGA wages during the preceding

three months. Most collected their own wages (today, they would also have their own bank

account), and kept them.24 Further, NREGA has important liberating effects for rural workers

in general: it makes them less dependent on local landlords for survival, enhances their

bargaining power vis-à-vis private employers, helps them to resist oppression from the upper

castes, and also gives them an opportunity to organise around common interests. As Indrajit

Roy (2014) observes, NREGA helps workers ‘to live and work in the villages without adhering

to its habits [including] caste-based discrimination and the servility associated with it’.25

While NREGA appears to have substantial benefits whenever employment is actually

provided, the basic principle of “work on demand” is far from being fulfilled. Indeed, there is

a large unmet demand for NREGA work (Dutta et al., 2012). Other NREGA entitlements are

also routinely violated, from basic worksite facilities to payment within 15 days (Khera,

2011a). In areas where workers were relatively organised to start with, or where NREGA was

used as an opportunity to organise rural workers, the programme has tended to do better.26 The

Act was partly intended to facilitate the formation of workers’ organisations in rural areas, but

this has happened to a very limited extent so far.

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The future of NREGA is somewhat uncertain. Ten years on, there is no reason to give up the

basic idea that people without an adequate means of livelihood can be helpfully employed on

local public works. The experience so far also shows that effective implementation of NREGA

has wide-ranging benefits, well beyond poverty alleviation. However, realising this potential

(especially in the poorer states) poses huge organisational and political challenges. Much

remains to be done to achieve the initial objectives of the Act.

6. The Public Distribution System

India’s public distribution system (PDS), initiated in the 1940s, provides monthly rations of

rice or wheat at subsidized prices to eligible households through a network of government-

regulated outlets. In some states, PDS outlets also supply other subsidized food commodities

such as pulses, oil, sugar and salt. More recently, some states have started experimenting with

maize and millets. The PDS also provides subsidized kerosene, across the country, but our

main focus in this section is on food and especially on foodgrains.

As mentioned earlier, the question whether the PDS should be universal (at least in rural areas)

or targeted has been a subject of lively debate. Until the nineties, though universal in principle,

the PDS actually had a patchy coverage and a major urban bias (Howes and Jha, 1992; Jha and

Ramaswami, 1992). By the late nineties, as arguments for explicit targeting gained ground, the

central government decided to restrict the PDS to poor households, to be identified by state

governments. Under the ‘targeted PDS’ (TPDS), there were two categories of ration cards, for

‘below poverty line’ (BPL) and ‘above poverty line’ (APL) households respectively. A third

category, ‘Antyodaya’ (poorest of the poor), was created in 2000. In 2001, APL issue prices

were increased, effectively driving out APL households from the system in most states, though

they continued to receive subsidized kerosene. Later on, as market prices increased while PDS

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issue prices did not, APL distribution picked up again. Some states, notably Tamil Nadu,

rejected the TPDS from the beginning in favour of a universal system.

The APL-BPL system proved problematic from the beginning. Stringent caps on the number

of BPL cards set by the central government, combined with a very unreliable identification

process, led to massive inclusion and exclusion errors (Ram et al., 2009; Drèze and Khera,

2010). The caps themselves were somewhat arbitrary, as they were tied to statistical poverty

estimates that had little to do with food security (Drèze 2010b). In recent years, many states

have moved towards a more inclusive (even near-universal) PDS coverage using their own

resources (see Tables 1 and 7). This move was consolidated by the enactment of the National

Food Security Act 2013, of which the PDS is one component, with an enhanced coverage of

75% in rural areas and 50% in urban areas.

Another important debate relates to corruption in the PDS. The difference between market

prices and PDS issue prices creates a strong incentive for intermediaries (especially the

‘dealers’ who manage PDS outlets) to embezzle foodgrains from the system and sell them on

the open market. ‘Leakages’ can be estimated by matching National Sample Survey (NSS) data

on household purchases from the PDS with official data on PDS offtake (Khera, 2011b).

Estimates based on successive NSS surveys from 1999-2000 to 2011-12 suggest that all-India

leakages were as high as 50 per cent or so at the beginning of that period, declining to 40 per

cent or so by the end of it. Estimates based on the India Human Development Surveys suggest

a somewhat faster rate of decline in PDS leakages, from 49 per cent in 2004-5 to 32 per cent

in 2011-2 (Drèze and Khera, 2015a).

NSS-based leakage estimates for the reference states are presented in Table 6. In 2004-5, the

leakages were massive in all these states except Tamil Nadu, and to a lesser extent Himachal

Pradesh. By 2011-12, the leakages were lower, but more importantly, the decline in leakages

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was driven by huge improvements in a few states that are known to have initiated PDS reforms

during that period. Here again, we see evidence of an ability of some of the lagging states to

emulate the achievements of the pioneer states.

Chhattisgarh is an important and well-researched example (Drèze and Khera, 2010; Puri, 2012;

Garg, 2013; Krishnamurthy et al., 2014; Joshi et al., 2016). In 2004-5, about half of the PDS

grain in Chhattisgarh was diverted by corrupt intermediaries (Table 6). Around that time,

however, the political leadership started taking interest in fixing the PDS.27 Chhattisgarh

emulated two important initiatives from Tamil Nadu’s reasonably successful PDS: an

expansion in the coverage (though Chhattisgarh stopped short of universalization) and a

reduction in issue prices. Both have the effect of increasing pressure on the system - from

below. Other voice-enhancing measures included simplifying entitlements (e.g., 35 kg per

month per card at a token price of Rs. 3/kg). This simplification enabled greater awareness of

entitlements, further enhanced by other innovative methods (e.g., by marking cardholders’

homes with a symbol indicating their entitlements).

The state government also took measures to streamline the supply chain. When the reforms

were initiated, PDS outlets were under the control of a corrupt nexus of private dealers and

politicians. The monopoly of private dealers was broken by handing over PDS outlets to

community-based institutions, such as Gram Panchayats, cooperative societies and women’s

self-help groups. To improve their viability, official commissions were enhanced. Transport

agencies were separated from distribution agencies, so that the latter keep an eye on the former.

Computerization of records also helped, especially by tightening accounting practices. Finally,

credible grievance redressal mechanisms with effective disciplinary action were put in place.

By 2011-12, estimated leakages had come down to less than 10 per cent. In three successive

surveys of the PDS in Chhattisgarh (in 2011, 2013 and 2016 respectively), we found that

cardholders were receiving more than 95 per cent of their foodgrain entitlements.28

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The Chhattisgarh experience provided a roadmap for PDS reform in other states. Over time,

Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh and Odisha borrowed from the Chhattisgarh experience

with significant results. In Odisha, between 2004-5 and 2011-12, leakages came down from 75

per cent to 25 per cent or so. In other states, where only part of the package of reforms has been

implemented, the results are less dramatic: e.g., Jharkhand implemented the voice-enhancing

measures, but not much else. In the same period, leakages have halved in Jharkhand (from 85

per cent to 44 per cent – see Table 6).

Around the same time as the 68th Round of the NSS, on which the latest leakage estimates are

based, we conducted a survey of the PDS (hereafter PDS Survey 2011) in nine states, including

the eight reference states.29 Selected findings are presented in Table 7, along with those of a

2013 survey called Public Evaluation of Entitlement Programmes (PEEP), which had a wider

focus but included PDS data. The figures suggest that, by then, BPL and Antyodaya households

were receiving the bulk of their PDS entitlements, not only in Tamil Nadu and Himachal

Pradesh but also in other states, though significant shortfalls remained in Bihar, Jharkhand and

Uttar Pradesh. In the APL quota, large leakages continued, a pattern that can also be inferred

from NSS data (Drèze and Khera, 2015a).

The National Food Security Act 2013 gave further momentum to PDS reforms in many states.

The Act includes three sets of entitlements: maternity entitlements in the form of cash transfers,

nutritious food for children (under the midday meal and ICDS programmes), and subsidized

grain through the PDS. The PDS-related provisions in the NFSA create transparent entitlements

(5 kg per person per month) across the country, with broad coverage (75% in rural areas) and

low issue prices (Rs. 3/kg for rice and Rs. 2/kg for wheat).30 They also incorporate many of the

reforms that proved effective in Chhattisgarh. The implementation of the NFSA (including the

phasing out of the leaky APL quota) is an important opportunity to consolidate and extend the

PDS improvements achieved in specific states over the past decade. Early evidence suggests

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that some states at least are making relatively good use of this opportunity. Madhya Pradesh

and West Bengal, for instance, have recently joined the league of active PDS reformers, and

continued progress is also observed in many of India’s poorest states (Drèze et al., 2016).

[Tables 6 and 7 around here.]

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Table 6: Estimates of PDS Leakages and Poverty Impact

Estimated PDS leakages (%) Estimated impact of the


PDS on rural poverty, 2009-
10a (percentage reduction in
2004-5 2011-2 the poverty-gap index)

Tamil Nadu 7 12 61

Himachal Pradesh 27 27 35

Chhattisgarh 52 9 39

Odisha 76 25 23

Rajasthan 94 61 12

Bihar 91 24 4

Jharkhand 85 44 13

Uttar Pradesh 58 58 11

INDIA 54 42 18

a
Using the all-India ‘Tendulkar poverty line’ for rural areas (Rs 673/month in 2009–10).
Source: Drèze and Khera (2013, 2015a). The impact of the PDS on rural poverty was evaluated
from National Sample Survey (NSS) data, by comparing the poverty-gap index with and
without adding the implicit value of food subsidies to NSS estimates of ‘monthly per-capita
expenditure’. Leakages were estimated by matching NSS data on household purchases from
the PDS with official data on PDS offtake.

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Table 7: The PDS in the Reference States


PDS coveragea Proportion of Purchase-entitlement Proportion of Proportion of
respondents who did ratio in last 3 months, respondents who feel respondents who would
not get any PDS grain BPL householdsb (%) that the quality of PDS prefer cash (%)
in the last 3 months (%) grain is ‘poor’ (%)

2011 2013 2011 2013 2011 2013 2011 2013


Tamil Nadu Universal 3 1 92 96 17 47 11 18
Himachal Pradesh Universal 0 1 92-100 100 4 17 9 12
Chhattisgarh Near-universal 2 0 95 98 14 0 2 9
Odisha Expanded 0 0 97-100 98 14 15 6 1
Rajasthan Expanded 1 1 86-100 99 19 27 15 12
Bihar Targeted 27 4 45 69 31 13 54 6
Jharkhand Targeted 3 2 71 75 19 14 22 23
Uttar Pradesh Targeted 2 10 77-88 86 11 5 34 29
EIGHT STATESc - 7 5 76-81 87 17 16 28 18
a
‘Targeted’: coverage is restricted to BPL households. ‘Expanded’: coverage has been extended beyond BPL households by state government,
but is not universal.
b
Average foodgrain purchases of BPL households, as a proportion of entitlements. In some states, BPL entitlements in 2011 were a little ambiguous
due to temporary extra allocations under Supreme Court orders; for these states, a range is presented instead of a point estimate.
c
Population-weighted average of state-specific figures.
Sources: PDS Survey 2011 and PEEP Survey 2013.31 Base: households with a BPL or Antyodaya card, except for purchase-entitlement ratio (BPL
households only). For further details, see Khera (2011c) and Drèze and Khera with the PEEP team (2014).

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Evidence of the impact of the PDS on nutrition is limited as things stand. Kaul (2013) studies

the effect of the PDS on calorie consumption and finds that a one per cent increase in the value

of the implicit subsidy increases calorie consumption by 0.14%. Krishnamurty et al. (2015)

find that the PDS in Chhattisgarh has helped households to diversify their food consumption

and increase their intake of protein-rich food items. Aside from this, there is little evidence of

significant nutrition gains from the PDS as things stand (Kochar, 2005; Tarozzi, 2005; Kaushal

and Muchomba, 2013; Rahman, 2014; Narayanan and Gerber, 2016). This may reflect

methodological difficulties in establishing these effects as well as the dismal functioning of the

PDS until reforms were initiated in the mid-2000s; available studies focus largely on the pre-

reform period.

The PDS, however, does seem to have a substantial impact on rural poverty. In earlier work

based on NSS data (Drèze and Khera, 2013), we found that implicit transfers through the PDS

reduced the all-India rural ‘poverty gap index’ by one fifth or so in 2009-10 (see Table 6). The

corresponding reduction was very small in states that had a poorly functioning PDS at that

time, such as Bihar (less than 5%), but quite large in states with a well-functioning PDS,

notably Tamil Nadu (61%) and Chhattisgarh (39%).32 Quite likely, recent PDS reforms in the

laggings states have consolidated the programme’s impact on rural poverty.

7. Social Security Pensions

Non-contributory pensions for widows, the elderly and disabled persons are provided under

three sister schemes sponsored by India’s central government: the Indira Gandhi National

Widow Pension Scheme (IGNWPS), Indira Gandhi National Old Age Pension Scheme

(IGNOAPS) and Indira Gandhi National Disability Pension Scheme (IGNDPS). All three are

part of the National Social Assistance Programme (NSAP) initiated in 1995.33 Many states use

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their own resources to expand these programmes beyond the central guidelines (either in terms

of coverage or in terms of pension amounts), or to supplement them with pension schemes of

their own. The financial allocation for NSAP in the last Union Budget, for 2016-7, is around

0.06 per cent of India’s GDP.

As with the PDS before the National Food Security Act, central support for social security

pensions extends – to this day – to BPL households only. This helps to contain the costs, but it

is problematic for two reasons. First, as discussed earlier, the process of identifying BPL

households is extremely unreliable. Second, the aim of social security pensions is not to support

poor households but to help vulnerable persons. Even among households above the poverty

line, widows and the elderly are often exposed to severe deprivation or insecurity. This applies

especially to widows, who have a very low status in Indian society (Chen and Drèze 1995;

Chen, 1998, 2000). Further, the poverty line in India is really a kind of destitution line: it falls

far short of the minimum required for dignified living in any plausible sense of the term (Drèze

and Sen, 2013). Thus, even if the process of identifying BPL households were perfectly reliable

and widows received fair treatment within the household, there would still be an argument for

extending social security pensions beyond BPL households.

Even for BPL households, the central contribution to social security pensions is very modest.

For instance, old-age pensions have stagnated at 200 rupees per month since 2006 even as

inflation reduced their real value by half or so (today, 200 rupees roughly corresponds to 10

kilograms of rice, or one day’s earnings at the minimum wage). To address this problem of

restricted coverage and low pension amounts, many states have expanded pension benefits

using their own resources (see Table 8). Even the enhanced amounts, however, leave

pensioners well below the poverty line unless they have other sources of earnings.

[Table 8 around here.]

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Accepted for publication in World Development.

Table 8: Social Security Pensions in the Reference States


Proportion of Approximate Old-age Proportion of Reported delays in pension payments (%) Main mode of
confirmed pension pension pensioners who had payment
No delay Less than a More than a
beneficiaries coverageb amount to pay a bribe to get
monthc month or no
in the official (%) (Rs/month) their pension
pattern
lista (%) sanctioned (%)
Tamil Nadu 97 26 1,000 51 10 98 2 Postal money orders
Himachal Pradesh 100 47 400 8 0 1 99 Postal money orders
Chhattisgarh 100 34 300 11 2 96 4 Post office accounts
Odisha 100 79 300 19 99 99 1 Cash through GP
Rajasthan 92 31 500-750 15 1 3 97 Post office accounts
Bihar 97 72 300-500 37 0 0 100 Cash through GP
Jharkhand 93 51 400 38 3 50 50 Bank accounts
Uttar Pradesh 100 34 300 50 0 0 100 Bank accounts
EIGHT STATESd 98 44 458 38 9 28 72
GP = Gram Panchayat (village council)
a
Percentage of persons in the 64 sample villages’ official lists of pensioners (about 3,253 names) who confirmed that they were getting a pension.
b
Proportion of sample households with at least one member aged above 60 where someone is getting a pension (widow or old-age).
c
Including ‘no delay’.
d
Population-weighted average of state-specific figures.
Source: PEEP Survey 2013; the survey included a special module on pensions, which covered 735 pensioners in the reference states (the initial
target was 12 per village, in 64 villages) selected at random from the pension lists. The figures in the first column are based on a full verification
of the pension lists.

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Accepted for publication in World Development.

India’s pension schemes have faced significant implementation problems. (Nayak et al., 2002;

Bhattacharya et al., 2015). The pensioner selection process tends to be slow and cumbersome,

forcing applicants to wait anxiously for years, if they are able to apply at all. In some states,

payments are irregular and unpredictable, or made once or twice a year instead of every month.

Further, given the limited reach of India’s banking system, collecting pensions is an ordeal for

many pensioners, especially if they are not in good health. Post offices (also used for pension

payments) are closer to homes, but the convenience comes at a price: in some states, corrupt

post-office employees often expect an inducement.

Delays in pension payments deserve special mention, because they tend to defeat the purpose

of providing some security to the pensioners. In November 2001, the Supreme Court directed

the state governments to ensure that pensions are paid by the 7th of each month without fail.

Fifteen years later, this goal is still elusive, as Table 8 illustrates. In three states (Tamil Nadu,

Chhattisgarh and Odisha), pensions are almost always paid within a month of being due, but in

other states, long delays are the norm. The only state where pensions are paid on time every

month is Odisha, where payments are made in cash on the 15th of each month at the local Gram

Panchayat office and the process is strictly monitored. This effective payment system is one

aspect of Odisha’s special commitment to social security pensions in recent years (Chopra and

Pudussery, 2014). Like PDS reforms in Chhattisgarh, Odisha’s recent experience with social

security pensions is an interesting example of how social programmes can be improved, even

in states that are not particularly well governed, when they become a political priority.

Delayed payments aside, a series of recent studies indicate that India’s pension schemes are

doing well in some important respects (Dutta et al., 2010; Gupta, 2013; Kaushal, 2013; Chopra

and Pudussery, 2014; Drèze and Khera, 2014; Marulasiddappa et al., 2014; Bhattacharya et al.,

2015). Modest as they are, the pensions tend to be highly valued by the recipients. Most of

them live in penury, and the monthly pension is a chance to enjoy small comforts – relieving

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Accepted for publication in World Development.

their pain with some medicine, getting their sandals repaired or simply avoiding hunger. The

administrative costs are very low, compared with other social security initiatives reviewed in

this paper. Further, recent surveys found little evidence of serious corruption in pension

schemes. To illustrate, in a detailed verification of randomly-selected pension lists in ten states,

we found – in 2013 - that 98 per cent of the 3,789 persons on the lists were alive and receiving

their pension (see Table 8, first column, for the reference states).34 There are leakages here and

there, for instance when post-office employees take a cut to disburse pensions, but nothing like

the scams that plague many other forms of government expenditure in India.

In the light of these findings, there is a case for consolidating the recent trend towards more

inclusive and effective pension schemes for widows, the elderly and disabled persons.

However, the central government seems to be taking a different view. The NSAP budget, after

rising steadily between 2010-11 and 2014-5, remained much the same (in money terms) for

three years in a row. The central government, it seems, lost interest in NSAP to focus on a new

pension scheme (the Pradhan Mantri Atal Pension Yojana), initiated in 2015 in a very different

mode – contributory and largely self-financed. Under this scheme, there is a minimum

contribution period of 20 years, when monthly contributions are to be paid through auto-debit

from a bank account. The modalities are not particularly advantageous, even for someone with

a secure monthly income.35 For those who live on the margin of subsistence, like so many

beneficiaries of the non-contributory schemes discussed earlier, the package is even less

attractive. So far, there have been few takers: about 2.4 million, compared with 32 million for

NSAP according to official data.36

As things stand, central and state governments are pulling in different directions. State

governments are consolidating non-contributory pensions under NSAP, at the cost of bearing

an ever-larger share of the payments. The central government is promoting its own contributory

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Accepted for publication in World Development.

pension scheme, without much success so far. A clear and effective national strategy for social

security pensions is yet to emerge.

8. What About the Costs?

Brief reference has already been made to the cost of some of the social programmes discussed

in this paper. A fuller view of the costs, as a ratio of GDP, is presented in Figure 1 for midday

meals, ICDS, NREGA and social security pensions. This figure must be read in light of the fact

that India’s GDP was growing at about 7.5 per cent per year in real terms over this period.

Also, the figure focuses on central government expenditure. This accounts for the bulk of total

public expenditure on these four programmes, because the contribution of state governments

is only 10 per cent or so for NREGA, the costliest item by far. But state governments do make

a significant additional contribution to public expenditure on specific programmes, e.g. 25 per

cent of the total (recently raised to 40 per cent) in the case of school meals.

[Figure 1 around here.]

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Accepted for publication in World Development.

1.00

0.90
Central government expenditure (as % of GDP)

0.80
Four schemes combined
0.70

0.60

0.50

0.40
NREGA
0.30

0.20
MDM ICDS
0.10
Social security pensions
0.00
2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-7
Source: Budget at a Glance (various years) for social spending and Finance Ministry's annual Economic Survey for
GDP figures (the 2016-17 GDP figure is from the Reserve Bank of India's Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy).

Figure 1: Public expenditure on selected schemes (% of GDP)


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School meals, ICDS and social security pensions cost relatively little as a proportion of GDP

– somewhere around 0.1 per cent in each case. NREGA expenditure rose steadily in the initial

years of the programme, until 2009-10. Since then, it has remained more or less constant in

money terms, implying a sustained decline in real terms, although NREGA expenditure picked

up again in the last Union Budget. The combined central government expenditure on these four

programmes was around 0.5 per cent of GDP in 2016-7.

The National Food Security Act is not included in Figure 1, because the Act is difficult to cost.

India’s ‘food subsidy’ is large – about 1 per cent of GDP. This figure is often quoted as the

cost of the NFSA, but this is misleading because the food subsidy is partly farmer subsidy,

partly consumer subsidy, and partly a price stabilization scheme (Deuss and Narayanan, 2017).

Even if just half of the food subsidy is counted as the cost of NFSA, however, it would still

cost 0.5 per cent of GDP – as much as the other schemes combined.

India does not have much else in place by way of social security programmes. In international

perspective, it spends relatively little under this heading. According to the Asian Development

Bank (2013), India spent 1.7% of GDP on ‘social protection’ in 2009, compared with an

average of 3.4% in the lower-middle income countries of Asia (where India belongs), 5.4% in

China and 19.2% in Japan.37 Even among low-income countries of Asia, the corresponding

figure is 2.6% - much higher than in India. Clearly, there is some scope for further social

security initiatives in the near future.

9. The Cash Dilemma

There is an influential view, particularly among economists, that some or all of the programmes

discussed here should be replaced with cash transfers. The most radical version of this view is

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that they should all be replaced with a universal basic income (UBI).38 This would be hard to

justify, however, considering that some of these programmes (e.g. school meals) have well-

documented benefits that go much beyond what equivalent cash transfers might be able to

deliver. More plausible proposals involve retaining some of these programmes and replacing

others with cash transfers, universal or targeted.

UBI proposals for India are somewhat futuristic, since their estimated costs range between 3.5

and 10 per cent of India’s GDP (Bardhan, 2016; Joshi, 2016). Creating this sort of fiscal space

for cash transfers will take many years, if it is desirable at all. Meanwhile, in practical terms,

the argument for cash is relevant mainly to the PDS. The National Food Security Act does not

preclude food subsidies being replaced with a ‘food security allowance’ in cash. Many

economists feel that this would reduce costs, since the PDS remains quite expensive (in terms

of transaction costs as well as leakages) even in its reformed state. Narayanan (2011) presents

an insightful summary of the debate, and stresses the need to assess these arguments in context.

We explored poor people’s views on the respective merits of cash and in-kind transfers in the

PDS Survey 2011 as well as in the PEEP Survey 2013.39 The proportion of respondents who

expressed a preference for cash over food was only 28 per cent in 2011, and even lower – 18

per cent – in 2013 (Table 7, last column). In both surveys, one clear pattern emerged: where

the PDS delivered, people preferred food. Among the main reasons for preferring food were

lack of trust that cash transfers would keep up with the price level, fear that cash might be

misused, inadequate banking facilities, and concerns that food prices might increase if the PDS

is dismantled. Replacing the PDS with cash transfers is likely to be unpopular, unless the

transfers are much larger than the implicit value of food subsidies, but then the move to cash

transfers may not lead to significant savings for the government.

Pilot cash-transfer schemes have been launched during the last few years in Chandigarh, Dadra

and Nagar Haveli, Delhi, and Puducherry – small urbanised areas thought to be particularly

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well placed for the transition. According to media reports and one early survey, these pilot

schemes are chaotic and unpopular.40 Interim findings of an evaluation conducted by J-PAL

(2016) for the Indian government are also sobering. In phase 2 of the evaluation (mid-2016),

nearly one-fifth of the entitled respondents did not receive any cash. In Puducherry, the

situation got worse between the two phases — in phase 1, up to 25 per cent received no cash,

in phase 2, this rose to 37 per cent. Like our own surveys, the J-PAL evaluation finds that a

majority of respondents prefer food over cash. Even if the pilots eventually succeed, there are

good reasons to be cautious in extending them to other areas – especially in the poorer states –

where the conditions of success (including a good banking infrastructure) may not be met.

Meanwhile, little attention is given to the possibility of expanding cash transfer schemes that

have already proved their effectiveness. Social security pensions, discussed earlier, is one

example. Another important example is maternity entitlements. Two Indian states, Odisha and

Tamil Nadu, have implemented maternity entitlements with good effect (Balasubramanian and

Sundari Ravindran, 2012; Khera, 2015). The NFSA requires maternity entitlements to be

extended across the country, but this is yet to happen.

The debate on cash versus kind is far from settled, but what is now widely agreed at least is

that it is possible, in India, to put in place an effective system of income support – in cash or

kind – for poor households. That itself is a significant development.

10. Concluding Remarks

Most of the rich countries today have a comprehensive social security system that encompasses

education, health, shelter, pensions and unemployment benefits. This applies not only to

western Europe but also to other OECD countries (e.g. Australia, Canada, Iceland, Israel,

Japan, New Zealand), with a few notable exceptions such as the United States. This historical

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transition was associated with a rejection of the ‘poor law’ mindset, whereby social support

was restricted to a minority of poor people and confined to the bare minimum. This

comprehensive approach played an important role in ensuring the acceptability of higher

taxation as a means of financing these provisions. In contrast with the poor-law approach,

where a minority of rich people were expected to support a minority of poor, modern welfare

states build on principles of reciprocity and solidarity among large sections of the population

(Horton and Gregory, 2010; Judt, 2010).

Many developing countries, especially those with a relatively democratic political system, are

now heading in a similar direction. For instance, Brazil’s democratic constitution explicitly

recognises universal rights to health care and elementary education, and spells out the

implications of these rights in some detail. In India, however, a comprehensive vision for social

policy is yet to enter public debates in a significant manner (though there are traces of it in the

Constitution, under the Directive Principles of State Policy). One reason for this is the severe

resource constraint. India’s per-capita GDP is still very low, the income tax base is small (about

3% of the population, compared with 7-8% in Brazil and China) and the overall tax-GDP ratio

is also low in international perspective. However, the resource barrier has eased significantly

in the recent past due to high growth rates: public revenue at constant prices is more than four

times as large today as it was twenty-five years ago (Drèze and Sen, 2013). If this trend

continues, comprehensive social security will soon look much more affordable than it does

today.

While resource constraints are easing over time, political support for active social policies is

still far from assured. India is a very divided society, where privileged groups are not always

convinced that they have a responsibility towards the underprivileged. The country’s deep-

rooted caste hierarchy often reinforces the social distance between the privileged and the rest

(Drèze and Sen, 2013). And yet, as discussed in this paper, there have been significant steps in

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recent years (and earlier, in specific Indian states) towards a more extensive social security

system. There is no guarantee that this trend will continue, but the historical experience of other

democratic countries suggests that further expansion of social security provisions in the near

future is at least a strong possibility.

Two important lessons emerge from the empirical evidence reviewed in this paper. One is that

the standards of implementation of social security programmes in India can and do improve

over time. This is at variance with the narrative of cynicism that pervades the mainstream media

on this subject (midday meals, for instance, rarely make headlines except when there are

incidents of food poisoning). It is, of course, part of the media’s job to expose corruption and

waste where they occur. Opposition parties and civic organisations also have good reason to

demand much higher standards of delivery. However, it is also important to note the progress

that has been made, whether in terms of reforming the PDS, or making anganwadis come to

life, or improving the quality of midday meals. Indeed, cynicism tends to obscure the scope for

further progress in this field and stifle political support for social security initiatives.

The second lesson, which relates to the first, is that states with poor standards of governance

are capable, over time, of emulating the achievements of the leading states. Not so long ago,

Kerala stood out among Indian states as a case of relatively effective delivery of essential public

services. Today, Tamil Nadu and Himachal Pradesh are more or less in the same league. Many

other states also have significant achievements to their credit: Chhattisgarh has turned the PDS

around, Odisha has lively anganwadis, and even Bihar has made a leap forward in some aspects

of child development. In absolute terms, the quality of public services in India’s worst-

governed states are still abysmal in many cases, but recent experience suggests that this

situation is far from immutable.

Following on this, we end by noting an important limitation of the rights approach to social

security. As mentioned earlier, the rights framework has made an important contribution to the

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emergence of a semblance of social security system in India. The conversion of many social

benefits into legal entitlements has helped to enhance functionality and accountability in many

social programmes, including some (like the PDS) that were often considered beyond repair.

Having said this, the rights approach has a tendency to create some rigidity and centralization

in social policies. Laws and court orders tend to be difficult to modify. That is a strength in so

far as it protects social benefits from being withdrawn, but it is also a weakness: modifications

are often required or desirable with the passage of time, or simply because the initial legislation

turned out to be defective in some way. National laws also tend to lead to centralization, by

giving sweeping powers to the central government. Sometimes these powers can be well used,

e.g. to nudge reluctant states towards more active social policies. In some cases, however, they

have led to counter-productive restraints on the freedom of state governments to design social

programmes in tune with their own circumstances. The National Rural Employment Guarantee

Act, for instance, was intended as an enabling legislation (a foundation for state-specific

‘employment guarantee schemes’), but in recent years it has become more and more

centralized, with the union government remote-controlling and micro-managing ever more

numerous aspects of the programme. Of course, states can also enact their own laws, as

Chhattisgarh has already done with the Chhattisgarh Food Security Act. But there is a potential

tussle here between the centre and the states, which is yet to be resolved.41

In short, India is still far from having found its feet as far as social security programmes are

concerned. However, the initiatives, experiences and debates of the last fifteen years or so

(along with the sustained growth of public revenue) have opened up vast possibilities in this

field for the relatively near future. Making good use of these possibilities is one of the major

challenges for Indian democracy today.

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1
Maternity benefits (cash grants of Rs 6,000 per child, or US$ 90 at current exchange rates)

are a legal entitlement of Indian women under the National Food Security Act 2013. This

provision of the Act, however, is yet to be implemented.

2
On regional patterns of social development in India, see Drèze and Khera (2012), Drèze and

Sen (2013), Singh (2016), and the literature cited there.

3
In the case of midday meals (mandatory under Supreme Court orders from 28 November

2001), the phase of major expansion was 2002-4. Table 1, where the baseline is 2004-5, does

not capture that initial expansion, but it did happen within the last 15 years. In the case of

pensions, the expansion visible in Table 1 accelerated sharply in many states during the last

five years.

4
Strictly speaking, only some components of the Integrated Child Development Services (e.g.

nutrition supplements) are covered under the NFSA. Supreme Court orders, however, state that

all children below the age of six years are entitled to all ICDS services.

5
This aspect of Indian democracy is discussed in Kohli (2012), Corbridge et al. (2012), Drèze

and Sen (2013), among others. Dr. B.R. Ambedkar, architect of the Indian Constitution, had

anticipated it in a series of speeches and writings (see e.g. Rodriguez 2002).

6
Litigation is also expensive for poor people, and legal aid facilities in India are scarce. On the

other hand, India’s legal system provides ample room for ‘public interest litigations’ (PILs),

and these have been used from time to time to put pressure on the government to implement

social legislations (Bhuwania, 2016).

7
See Drèze and Khera (2010), Table 1, and Desai et al. (2010), Table A.13.1a.

8
Titmuss (1967), quoted in Horton and Gregory (2010), p. 273. This argument for

universalization is an important basis of the welfare state in Europe (Judt, 2010).

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9
This approach is made possible by the expanded coverage of the PDS under the Act, discussed

further on: 75% in rural areas and 50% in urban areas, adjusted state-wise so that the coverage

is higher in the poorer states (e.g. 85% in rural Bihar).

10
See e.g. Drèze, Khera and Pudussery (2015) on Bihar’s recent experience.

11
The order applies to government and government-aided private schools. This public interest

litigation is known as the ‘right to food case’ (People’s Union for Civil Liberties vs.

Government of India and Others, Writ Petition [Civil] 196 of 2001), and continues to this day.

The original demand was that the government’s gigantic food stocks should be used to protect

people from hunger.

12
Strictly speaking, this is the cost to the central government; state governments also contribute

(about 25 per cent of total costs, recently raised to 40 per cent).

13
March 2011 figures from the central government’s midday meal website (mdm.nic.in).

14
Some states have two anganwadi workers and one helper, but the norm is to have one each.

15
See Citizens’ Initiative for the Rights of Children Under Six (2006). On the status of ICDS

at that time, see also Drèze (2006) and the studies cited there.

16
The literature on NREGA is too vast for us to be able to do justice to it in this short paper.

On the experience of the initial years, see Khera (2011a), Government of India (2012), and the

literature cited there. There have been rapid developments during the last few years, and also a

flurry of research. Important contributions include Dutta et al. (2012, 2014), Afridi et al.

(2013), Yanyan Liu and Barrett (2013), Klonner and Oldiges (2014), Mookherjee (2014),

Bhaskar, Gupta and Yadav (2016), Imbert and Papp (2015b), Ranaware et al. (2015),

Muralidharan et al. (2016), among others.

17
For a brief history of the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (officially known today

as Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act), see Drèze (2010a). Full
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details of the Act, Schedules and Guidelines are available on the official NREGA website

(www.nrega.nic.in).

18
One state where the government often did take action against corrupt officials is Andhra

Pradesh. It is perhaps not an accident that NREGA has done relatively well in that state (see

the literature cited in note 23).

19
See also Government of India (2012), p. 4, and the ‘public data portal’ on the official NREGA

website (www.nrega.nic.in).

20
For further discussion, see Drèze (2014). The broad consistency between official NREGA

data and the second Indian Human Development Survey can also be verified from data

presented in Desai et al. (2015). On the gap between official figures and National Sample

Survey data, see also Imbert and Papp (2011, 2015a).

21
See particularly Yanyan Liu and Barrett (2013); also Drèze and Khera (2009b).

22
See Deininger and Yanyan Liu (2013), Dasgupta (2013), Ravi and Engler (2015),

Muralidharan et al. (2016), among others. On Tamil Nadu, see e.g. Narayanan (2008), Harriss

et al. (2010), Khera and Muthiah (2010), Jeyaranjan (2011), Carswell and De Neve (2010,

2014).

23
See e.g. Aggarwal et al. (2012), Bhaskar, Gupta and Yadav (2016), Ranaware et al. (2015);

also earlier studies cited in Drèze and Sen (2013), Chapter 7.

24
See Khera and Nayak (2009). The gender dimension of employment guarantee is a prominent

theme of the literature on NREGA in Tamil Nadu, cited earlier, and also of earlier writings on

Maharashtra’s employment guarantee scheme; see also Basu (2012), Naryananan (2008),

Narayanan and Das (2014), among others.

25
Roy (2014), p. 534. On the empowerment aspects of NREGA, see also Dhaktode (2016) and

Jenkins and Manor (2016).


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26
For an illustration, see Khera (2008) on the experience of NREGA in parts of Badwani

district, Madhya Pradesh. On related experiences elsewhere, see e.g. Pattenden (2015) and Roy

(2015).

27
The role of electoral politics as well as public mobilization in creating political will for PDS

reform in Chhattisgarh is discussed in Tillin, Saxena and Sisodia (2015).

28
On the first two surveys, see Table 6; on the third, see Drèze et al. (2016).

29
The PDS Survey took place in May-June 2011 in twenty districts – two of the poorest districts

in each of nine states (the eight “reference states” and Andhra Pradesh). In each district, we

selected two Blocks. In each Block, three villages were selected at random, and in each of the

120 sample villages, 12 households entitled to the PDS were selected at random. In six sample

states, where the PDS is targeted, sample households were selected from the BPL list. In the

remaining three, where the PDS is universal or quasi-universal, the voter list was used. In the

time available, the survey teams interviewed 1227 (out of a target of 1440) households. For

further details, see Khera (2011c).

30
The Antyodaya scheme, intended for the poorest of the poor, continues under the NFSA,

with foodgrain entitlements of 35 kg per household per month across the country.

31
The PEEP Survey took place in May-June 2013 in twenty districts – two of the poorest

districts in each of ten states (the eight “reference states” as well as Madhya Pradesh and

Maharashtra). It was geared to studying all the five social programmes discussed in this paper

– not just the PDS. In each district, we selected one Block where a local organisation was

available to facilitate the survey. In each Block, four villages were selected at random, and in

each of the 80 sample villages, 30 households were selected at random from the official list of

NREGA Job Cards. In the time available, the survey teams were able to locate and interview

1,926 of these 2,400 households. There were some methodological differences between the

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PDS Survey 2011 and the PEEP Survey 2013, but they are unlikely to matter much for the

purpose of the broad comparisons being made here.

32
These figures are based on the ‘Tendulkar poverty line’. Using a similar methodology,

Himanshu and Sen (2013) find that the PDS reduces the poverty gap for rural and urban areas

combined by 20 per cent or so.

33
This programme also includes two other schemes that are in the process of being phased out:

the National Family Benefit Scheme and Annapurna. We are not concerned, in this section,

with formal-sector pension schemes such as those available to public-sector employees.

34
These were the pension lists of the PEEP survey’s 80 sample villages. For further details,

see Chopra and Pudussery (2014).

35
An illustration may help. Under this scheme, a person aged 40 years today would have to

pay Rs 291 per month for 20 years in order to be eligible for a pension of Rs 1,000 per month

from then on. Assuming a life expectancy of 70 years and an inflation rate of 5 per cent or so

(reasonable assumptions for India), this person is better off putting the monthly contributions

in a bank account. Indeed, even with an interest rate of just 5 per cent in money terms (zero in

real terms), saving Rs 291 for 20 years from age 40 would enable him or her to spend Rs 1,000

for the next 10 years and end at age 70 with a good Rs 3,000.

36
See www.pradhanmantriyojana.co.in/atal-pension-yojana-apy and nsap.nic.in/, respectively.

37
The figure for India pertains to the central government only. However, even after adding a

generous margin (say 25 per cent) for state-government spending, social security expenditure

in India would look low compared with other Asian countries.

38
This is one possible reading of the chapter on UBI in the Government of India’s (2017) latest

Economic Survey. The chapter presents a UBI proposal costing about 5 per cent of India’s

GDP and lists a series of schemes and subsidies, including the five social programmes
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discussed in this paper, also costing about 5 per cent of India’s GDP. Phasing out these schemes

and subsidies is envisaged as one possible way of financing the UBI proposal.

39
See Khera (2014) for a more detailed discussion of the findings.

40
The Delhi pilot (called Annashree) was quietly discontinued and we are not aware of any

evaluation of it. According to a survey by the Centre for Equity Studies (New Delhi), the initial

Puducherry pilot was discontinued within eight weeks following public protests and other

hurdles, and the Chandigarh pilot also led to massive discontent due to erratic transfers and

large exclusion errors (Kalra, 2016; Nehra, 2016).

41
Under the Indian Constitution, social security is on the Concurrent List of items on which

both centre and states have the power to legislate, but with national laws superseding state laws.

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