CW R4B Annotated Bibliography

Eli Gendreau-Distler

Dr. Freeman

October 25, 2023

As society adapts to a warming climate, it will be essential to understand how global

warming progresses and when Earth’s climate could change very rapidly. There are a wide range

of mathematical models available for this task, and I want to learn about one specific

model—nonlinear dynamical systems—in this project. Nonlinear dynamical systems are

particularly well-suited to climate modeling because they are mathematically well-understood

and are able to account for many observed phenomena, such as the large (nonlinear) responses of

the climate to small perturbations. In my research paper, I would like to focus on how nonlinear

dynamical systems can be used to model climate tipping points and how we should interpret the

predictions of these models. In addition, I hope to explore the benefits of climate models as a

tool for teaching students about climate science, the scientific method, and more. I also want to

understand the potential applications of climate models to public policy in order to help students

and educators recognize how their course content connects to the outside world. All in all, I will

research both the technical and the educational sides of climate modeling so that I can present the

topic in a way that will be helpful to middle and high school teachers who are interested in using

climate models in their classrooms.

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1. Schneider SH. Climate Modeling. Scientific American. 1987;256(5):72-T9.

In this article, Schneider explains how paleoclimatic simulations can be used to

test the reliability of climate models designed to predict global warming. He focuses on

the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) model, which tracks climatic

variables on a three-dimensional grid of points (latitude, longitude, and altitude) and uses

a technique called parameterization to account for sub-grid-scale phenomena. Schneider

compares the model’s predictions for the Younger Dryas, the Cretaceous period, and

modern global warming to predictions made by other models and to geologic evidence.

The NCAR predictions generally agree with the geologic evidence and with the

predictions of other models, but the discrepancies that do arise highlight the uncertainty

inherent in any climate model.

I think this article will provide insight into how climate modeling was explained

to the general public during the earliest days of the field. Since all of my other sources are

more recent (after 2008), this source will provide historical context and will illustrate

how the field of climate modeling has evolved over time. This source also demonstrates

how climate modeling can be explained to a popular audience outside of the classroom,

which will be important when considering how the educational benefits of climate

models can be extended to a broader audience. In addition, I hope to reference

Schneider’s discussion of methods for testing the predictions of climate models in my

introduction when I explain the basic features of a climate model and its predictions.

2. Bhattacharya D, Carroll Steward K, Forbes CT. Climate education in secondary science:

comparison of model-based and non-model-based investigations of Earth’s climate.
International Journal of Science Education. 2021;43(13):2226–2249.
doi:10.1080/09500693.2021.1958022

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 In this study, the authors seek to determine whether students learn more about

global climate change when the subject is taught using climate models. The researchers

designed a curriculum module containing model-based and non-model-based data

analysis activities to be implemented in a high school Geoscience course. The students’

learning outcomes were assessed using the Evidence-Based Reasoning framework, which

focuses on students’ ability to establish a premise, interpret the evidence, and formulate a

claim. By collecting student tasks and interviews, the researchers determined that

students were better prepared to establish a premise and interpret the available evidence

after completing the model-based activities and were equally prepared to formulate a

claim after completing the model-based and non-model-based activities.

I think this source will be helpful for my inquiry into the use of climate models

for education because it provides quantitative metrics on how the use of climate models

affects student learning outcomes. The model-based activities used in this study were

based on the EzGCM model, which is a simplified version of the EdGCM model

discussed in Chandler. In addition, the findings of this study complement the findings of

Bush et al., in which the authors conclude that teachers generally find climate models to

be a beneficial educational tool. I intend to present these three sources together in a

section of my research paper devoted to the use of climate models in education. In this

section, I hope to show (a) what sort of climate models might be used for educational

purposes and (b) that students and teachers agree on the benefits of using climate models

in the classroom.

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3. Kaper HG. Mathematics and climate / Hans Kaper, Hans Engler. Philadelphia,
Pennsylvania: Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics SIAM Market Street,
Floor 6, Philadelphia, PA 19104; 2013.

The first few chapters of this textbook motivate the application of mathematical

models to climate change and discuss a few simple but fundamental models. The models

introduced thus far include energy balance models and box models, and the modeling

concepts introduced include bifurcations and equilibrium states. In chapter 4, the authors

provide mathematical background on autonomous differential equations and dynamical

systems. While the primary goal of the text is to introduce the reader to the theory behind

climate modeling, all the models presented are designed to fit real-world data.

I think this book will be helpful as a reference for concepts used in the more

complex climate models discussed in Sunny et al., Wilson et al., and Bastiaansen et al. In

particular, the explanations of energy balance models and disturbances from equilibrium

will be relevant for my presentation of the basic features of a climate model. I intend to

use this source early on in my section on the technical aspects of climate modeling so that

readers can become more familiar with the fundamental concepts that go into climate

modeling before grappling with any real models. This source is similar to Ditlevsen’s

book chapter in that both focus on explaining the underlying concepts of climate

modeling, but differs in that Kaper and Engler focus on climate models more broadly

whereas Ditlevsen focuses on climate tipping points.

4. Sunny EM, Balakrishnan J, Kurths J. Predicting climatic tipping points. Chaos: An

Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science. 2023;33(2):021101.
doi:10.1063/5.0135266

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 This article focuses on modeling climatic tipping points, which are the conditions

under which Earth’s climate shifts irreversibly from one dynamical state into another. The

authors consider tipping points that are caused by rapid changes in system parameters as

well as tipping points caused by exceeding threshold levels of carbon dioxide. To do so,

they modify the logistic growth equation using two measurable parameters—carbon

dioxide levels and the speed at which system variables change—and track the boundaries

that must be crossed in order for the climate to shift to a new equilibrium state. The

authors found that based on the speed at which system variables change, a climate tipping

point is likely to be reached in early 2022, but that this tipping point will not be crossed

unless carbon dioxide levels also exceed a certain threshold.

I think this article provides an excellent example of a real-world climate model

and the type of predictions it can make. For my research project, I am planning to pick

one specific model and paper to work through very carefully while focusing only on the

main points of the others. I am considering this article for my more in-depth study

because it uses nonlinear dynamical systems to model climate tipping points (which is the

type of climate model I want to focus on) and makes interesting, tangible predictions

using that model. If I pursue this plan, then Sunny et al. would feature prominently in my

section on the technical aspects of climate modeling. It would probably come towards the

end of that section, after Kaper and Engler’s textbook has been used to introduce

fundamental concepts of climate modeling. While discussing this article, I may draw on

Bastiaansen et al. to highlight the nonlinear features of this model as well as the

limitations of predictions made with it.

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5. Wilson EA, Bonan D, Thompson A, Armstrong N, Riser S. Mixed layer depth
seasonality modulates summertime SST variability in the Southern Ocean.
Oceanography; 2022. https://essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10.1002/essoar.10511825.1.
doi:10.1002/essoar.10511825.1

In this article, the authors seek to explain the transition in recent years from

surface cooling to surface warming in the Southern Ocean using the extreme warming

events that occurred during the summers of 2016 and 2019. To determine whether these

phenomena could be explained with internal variability, they compared observed

warming events to outputs from the Community Earth System Model Version 1 Large

Ensemble (CESM1-LE) generated by applying the same evolution to systems with

slightly different initial conditions. The authors also employ a one-dimensional ocean

mixing model to learn about how weak circumpolar westerlies would impact mixed layer

shoaling and warming. They conclude that the observed surface warming anomalies were

due to unusually high air-sea heating and unusually low northward Ekman transport, both

of which are caused by weaker circumpolar westerlies. However, the authors caution that

the observed warming anomalies could conceivably be explained by internal variability

alone.

The climate modeling techniques discussed in this article are not directly related

to my primary focus on modeling climate tipping points with nonlinear dynamical

systems. However, the notion of internal variability or natural fluctuations in a climate

system is relevant in all climate models, including those discussed in Sunny et al. and

Bastiaansen et al. I think it will be helpful to discuss this article briefly as an example of

how related climate modeling techniques can be applied to systems that go beyond the

specific type I am focusing on in my paper. The authors’ overarching goal of determining

whether the observed warming anomalies could have been caused by internal variability

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 may also be relevant to my discussion of climate models in education (see Bhattacharya

et al. and Bush et al.), since climate models can help students understand when a result is

statistically significant and when it is most likely due to fluctuations in the data.

6. Bastiaansen R, Ashwin P, von der Heydt AS. Climate response and sensitivity: time
scales and late tipping points. Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical,
Physical and Engineering Sciences. 2023;479(2269):20220483.
doi:10.1098/rspa.2022.0483

In this article, the authors explore the difficulties of using data from short time

spans to estimate long-term equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS)—the increase in

equilibrium temperature that would result from doubling the carbon dioxide

concentration in the atmosphere. To do so, they first examine the limiting behavior of

climate systems and highlight the importance of the time scales over which various

approximations are valid. Next, the authors delve into nonlinearities in the ECS, focusing

on the phenomenon of late tipping points. They ultimately conclude that ECS is difficult

to measure both because of the timescales relevant, even for linear behavior, and because

of the ubiquity of nonlinear behavior.

I think this article will be relevant for my discussion of the nonlinear nature of

climate dynamics, which I will use to motivate the application of nonlinear dynamical

systems to climate models. I intend to present this source alongside Ditlevsen’s book

chapter to help my reader understand what climate tipping points are and why linear

models are insufficient. The concerns raised by Bastiaansen et al. regarding the

nonlinearity of climate responses—alongside the terminology from Ditlevsen—will be

useful context to present to my reader before diving into the details of any specific

nonlinear model. I plan to situate this discussion in the beginning of my section on the

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 technical aspects of climate modeling. However, the idea of nonlinearity is one of the key

points to convey to students when using climate models for education, and consequently

this source is also related to Bhattacharya et al., Bush et al., and Chandler.

7. Ditlevsen P. Tipping Points in the Climate System. In: Franzke CLE, O’Kane TJ, editors.
Nonlinear and Stochastic Climate Dynamics. 1st ed. Cambridge University Press; 2016.
p. 33–53.
https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/CBO9781316339251A010/type/book
_part. doi:10.1017/9781316339251.003

In this book chapter, Ditlevsen discusses two distinct but important types of

climate tipping points: bifurcation-induced tipping (due to changes in the external

system) and noise-induced tipping (due to internal fluctuations). He demonstrates a

method for identifying early warning signs of climate tipping based on changes in a

readily observable control parameter. He emphasizes that early warning signs do not exist

for noise-induced tipping, but nevertheless explores the time scales over which

noise-induced tipping is likely to occur. Ditlevsen applies these results to

Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events in the paleoclimatic record to conclude that DO-type

events are noise-induced and thus hard to predict.

I think this chapter will be a helpful reference for explaining what climate tipping

points are and for highlighting the distinction between bifurcation-induced and

noise-induced tipping points, which must be handled differently in climate models. This

discussion will be most useful near the beginning of my section on the technical aspects

of climate modeling so that my reader can understand what we are modeling before

learning how to model it. I anticipate that this article will provide helpful context for the

discussions of the nonlinearity of climate tipping points (from Bastiaansen et al.) and of a

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 specific model for climate tipping points (from Sunny et al.). There is also a connection

between this article and Schneider’s article in that both test the validity of climate models

by using them to predict past events and comparing the results to geologic evidence. This

technique should be emphasized when using climate models as an educational tool, and is

therefore also relevant to my discussion on climate models in education (see

Bhattacharya et al., Bush et al., and Chandler).

8. Bush D, Sieber R, Chandler MA, Sohl LE. Teaching anthropogenic global climate change
(AGCC) using climate models. Journal of Geography in Higher Education.
2019;43(4):527–543. doi:10.1080/03098265.2019.1661370

In this article, the authors seek to evaluate the pros and cons of using the

Columbia University/NASA GISS Educational Global Climate Model (EdGCM) in a

classroom setting. To address this issue, the authors sent a survey to people who had

purchased or registered for EdGCM containing questions about their experience with the

software. The survey respondents had a wide range of reasons and methods for using

EdGCM in their classrooms. However, the survey results showed that most teachers who

had used EdGCM with students believed that doing so had improved the students’

understanding of climate science as well as their belief in AGCC despite technical

difficulties.

I expect that this article will be central to my discussion of climate models in

education. The specific model used in this study, EdGCM, is explained in great detail in

Chandler’s lecture. The findings of this study complement the findings of Bhattacharya et

al., in which the authors conclude that students’ Evidence-Based Reasoning benefits

more from model-based activities than from non-model-based activities. I intend to

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 present these three sources together in order to show (a) what sort of climate models

might be used for educational purposes and (b) that students and teachers agree on the

benefits of using climate models in the classroom.

9. Chandler MA. The Educational Global Climate Model (EdGCM). In: Our Warming
Planet. Vol. Volume 1. World Scientific; 2016. p. 411–428. (Lectures in Climate Change).
https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/10.1142/9789813148796_0020.
doi:10.1142/9789813148796_0020

Chandler’s lecture provides an overview of the features of EdGCM and discusses

how students can use and benefit from the software. The lecture is structured around the

central goal of explaining how different aspects of EdGCM help students gain familiarity

with the five steps of the scientific process: experimental design, simulation setup,

running experiments, analyzing output, and communicating results. Chandler ultimately

argues that EdGCM is a useful tool for teaching students not only about computer

modeling but also about climate science and the scientific process.

I think this article will be helpful in my section on the use of climate models for

education because it provides a specific example of what a climate model designed for

educational purposes might look like. Furthermore, this lecture discusses the exact model

used in the studies conducted by Bhattacharya et al. and Bush et al.. Therefore, it will

provide helpful context for the findings of these studies, which ultimately support the use

of climate models in education. Since Chandler focuses so clearly on how EdGCM

enables students to explore the scientific process, I might be able to draw parallels

between the scientific process used in real-world research on climate modeling and the

scientific process used by students working with EdGCM. For example, Schneider and

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 Ditlevsen's method for testing climate models by predicting past events is an example of

the “analyzing output” stage of Chandler’s scientific process.

10. Lenton TM, Held H, Kriegler E, Hall JW, Lucht W, Rahmstorf S, Schellnhuber HJ.
Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences. 2008;105(6):1786–1793. doi:10.1073/pnas.0705414105

In this article, the authors present the concept of a tipping element—a subsystem

of Earth’s climate system that can transition to a new state due to small

perturbations—and discuss several of the most important examples of tipping elements.

They offer a formal definition of a tipping element as well as four criteria for

policy-relevant tipping elements. Using these criteria, they identify the most concerning

tipping elements as Arctic sea-ice and the Greenland Ice Sheet. The authors conclude that

tipping elements near their tipping points should inform public policy. However, they

caution that such efforts require a better understanding of whether we can prevent or

adapt to changes in parameters that control tipping.

I anticipate drawing on this source during both of the main sections of my paper

(technical details of climate modeling and climate models for education). In the first

section, I will focus primarily on tipping points, but I will bring in Lenton et al.’s

examples of tipping elements to illustrate some of the most pressing instances of climate

tipping. These examples will complement the introduction to tipping points from

Ditlevsen, the discussion of the nonlinearity of tipping points from Bastiaansen et al., and

the specific model used to predict climate tipping points in Sunny et al. In the second

section of my paper (focused on climate models for education), I will reference this

article as an example of how climate models can be used to inform public policy. The

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connection to public policy is an essential component of climate education because it is

important for students to understand how the climate models they are learning about can

be used to make a real difference in the world.

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