Linear algebra ASSIGNMENT

MODELING LINEAR POPULATION

GROWTH USING LINEAR ALGEBRA
Done By : S.Anitesh
BL.EN.U4EAC19064
Introduction:
◦ Population that undergo a fixed set of age transitions can be modelled from which
age can be calculated.
◦ Leslie matrix is very popular in population ecology.
◦ Patrick H. Leslie
◦ A Leslie matrix uses age-specific or stage (class)-specific survival and fecundity rates for
a population to describe the way the population structure varies over time.
Working of Leslie Matrix
◦ As a brief review how the Leslie matrix works, a system of linear equations can be
represented as a matrix equation of the form Ax = b. In this form, ‘A’ is the set of
coefficients as some m × n matrix, ‘x’ is some input vector in Rn, and ‘b’ is the product
of ‘A’ and ‘x’ as an output vector in Rm, shown below:
Population growth of some spices
◦ To begin, let’s suppose that the members of a population are divided into two stages,
each one year in length.
◦ Species in the first stage produce no offspring and have a 70% chance of surviving to
the second stage. Species in the second stage produce an average of 3 female
offspring per year, but are guaranteed to die after one year in stage 2.
◦ Let’s also suppose that initially there are 100 species in the first stage and 100 species in
the second stage. What will the distribution of the female population look like in year 1?
Manual Calculation : Stage 1
◦ The number of stage 1 species in year 1 = (average number of offspring produced by
stage 1 species x 100) + (average number of offspring produced by stage 2 species x
100)
= (0 x 100) + (3 x 100) = 300.
◦ Also, the number of stage 2 species in year 1 = (probability of a stage 1 female
reaching stage 2 x 100) + (probability of a stage 2 female remaining in stage 2 x 100)
= (0.7 x 100) + (0 x 100) = 70.
◦ So, in year 1, there will be 300 species in stage 1 and 70 species in stage 2.
Stage 2
◦ We can repeat this process to find the distribution of the female population in year 2.
◦ In other words, the number of stage 1 species in year 2 = (average number of offspring
produced by stage 1 species x 300) + (average number of offspring produced by stage
2 species x 70)
= (0 x 300) + (3 x 70) = 210.
◦ Also, the number of stage 2 species in year 2 = (probability of a stage 1 female
reaching stage 2 x 300) + (probability of a stage 2 female remaining in stage 2 x 70)
= (.7 x 300) + (0 x 70) = 210.
◦ So, in year 2, there will be 210 species in stage 1 and 210 species in stage 2.
What do we do if there are more
than two stages for the population?
◦ Let us try to formulate this into a matrix
◦ In general, suppose the members of a population are divided into n stages or classes.
◦ Fi = the average number of offspring in the ith class
◦ Pi = the probability that in the ith class specie will survive to become a member of the
(i+1)st class.
 𝒙𝟏 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑘
𝒙𝟐 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 2 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑘
𝒙𝟑 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 3 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑘
◦ 𝐱𝐤 = =

𝒙𝒏 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑘

◦ Then a Leslie matrix that describes the change in the population over time is given by
Leslie Matrix
Let us try to explain using an
example
Consider a population of rabbits with the following characteristics:
◦ The maximum life span is 3 years
◦ Half of the rabbits survive their 1st year and of these half survive their 2nd year
◦ During the first year, the rabbits don’t produce any offspring. And during second 6
offspring's are produced and during 3rd 8 offspring's are produced
◦ If this population starts with 24 rabbits in their first year, 20 rabbits in their second year,
and 12 rabbits in their third year, how many rabbits will there be of each age after two
years?
How many rabbits will be there in the
2nd year??
◦ Leslie Matrix :

After 1 year, there will be 216 rabbits in their 1st year, 12 rabbits in their 2nd year,
and 10 rabbits in their 3rd year.
Conclusion
◦ Using this linear algebra we can easily formulated the linear population growth of
species and find their lifespan and their population at any required year or stage.
Refernces:
◦ https://medium.com/swlh/modeling-population-growth-with-linear-algebra-
abe978bc7c80
◦ http://archive.dimacs.rutgers.edu/Publications/Modules/Module07-3/dimacs07-3.pdf
◦ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leslie_matrix#:~:text=The%20Leslie%20matrix%20(also%20c
alled,usually%20the%20female%2C%20is%20considered.