9.13 In the Australian legal system, a defendant is presumed innocent until proven guilty.

Consider a null hypothesis, H0, that the defendant is innocent, and an alternative hypothesis,
H1, that the defendant is guilty. A jury has two possible decisions: convict the defendant (i.e.
reject the null hypothesis) or do not convict the defendant (i.e. do not reject the null
hypothesis). Explain the possible consequences of committing either a Type I or a Type II
error in this example.

H0: Defendant is innocent

H1: Defendant is guilty

Type 1 error= the defendant is guilty while he is actually innocent.an innocent ends up
convicted. An innocent is jailed (meskine)

Type 2 error= you consider the defendant as innocent when it is not the case. you don’t
convict someone who is guilty a criminal is free.

9.14 Suppose the defendant in problem 9.13 is presumed guilty until proven innocent, as in
some other judicial systems. How do the null and alternative hypotheses differ from those in
problem 9.13? What are the possible consequences of committing either a Type I or a Type II
error here?

H0: the defendant is guilty

H1: the defendant is innocent

Type 1 error = you consider the defendant innocent while the latter is guilty.  a criminal is
freed.

Type 2 error = you consider the defendant as guilty when actually the latter is innocent. an
innocent ends up in jail.

9.28 The director of manufacturing at a fabric mill needs to determine whether a new machine
is producing a particular type of cloth according to the manufacturer’s specifications, which
indicate that the cloth should have a mean breaking strength of 30 kg and a standard deviation
of 3.5 kg. A sample of 49 pieces of cloth reveals a sample mean breaking strength of 29.3 kg.
a. Is there sufficient evidence that the machine is not meeting the manufacturer’s
specifications for mean breaking strength? (Use a 0.05 level of significance.)

b. Calculate the p-value and interpret its meaning.

c. What is your answer in (a) if the standard deviation is 1.8 kg?

d. What is your answer in (a) if the sample mean is 29 kg and the standard deviation is 1.7 kg?

a.H0 :µ=30kg H1 :µ≠30kg

z= (29.3-30)/(3.5/√49)=(-0.7/0.5)= -1.4 critical value -1.96 and 1.96 ; the non-rejection region
fail to reject H0 there is no evidence that the machine is not meeting the manufacturer
specifications for mean breaking strength . in others words keep H0 (cuz -1.4 is higher than -
1.96 and is included in the interval)

b. z=-1.4 ;+1.4=0.0808*2=0.1616 ; 0.0808 *2 =0.1616>0.05 you accept the null hypothesis

c. H0 :µ=30kg H1 :µ≠30kg

z= (29.3-30)/(1.8/√49)= -2.72 ; critical value -1.96 and 1.96 ; inside the rejection region . we
reject H0 . the cloth doesn’t have a mean breaking strength of 30kg. There is evidence of a
difference . With p value 0.0033*2=0.0066 reject h0

d. H0 :µ=30kg H1 :µ≠30kg

z= (29-30)/(1.7/√49)= -4.11 ; critical value -1.96 and 1.96 ; inside the rejection region . we
reject H0 . the cloth doesn’t have a mean breaking strength of 30kg.

9.29 The quality-control manager at a factory that manufactures memory cards for digital
cameras needs to determine whether a large shipment of UHS cards has a mean write speed
equal to 90 MB per second. The population standard deviation is 8 MB/s. A random sample
of 64 cards indicates a sample mean write speed of 87.5 MB/s.

a. At the 0.05 level of significance, is there sufficient evidence that the mean write speed is
different from 90 MB/s?

b. Calculate the p-value and interpret its meaning.

c. Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate of the population mean write speed of the
memory cards.

d. Compare the results of (a) and (c). What conclusions do you reach?

a. H0 :µ=90MB H1 :µ≠90MB

z= (87.5-90)/(8/√64)=-2.5/1=-2.5 ; critical value -1.96 and 1.96 ; inside the rejection region .
we reject H0. The mean write speed is different from 90MB.

b. 0.0062*2=0.0124<0.05 reject H0 . The mean write speed is different from 90MB.

c. 87.5+/- 1.96* (8/√64) 85.54≤µ≤89.46 the mean is indeed different from 90MB.

d. The mean write speed is different from 90MB with the two approaches .
9.43 The Glendale Steel Company manufactures steel bars. If the production process is
working properly, it turns out steel bars with a mean length of at least 855 mm and a standard
deviation of 65 mm (as determined from engineering specifications on the production
equipment involved). Longer steel bars can be used or altered, but shorter bars must be
scrapped. You select a sample of 25 bars and the mean length is 832 mm. Do you need to
adjust the production equipment?

a. If you want to test the hypothesis at the 0.05 level of significance, what decision would you
make using the critical value approach to hypothesis testing?

b. If you want to test the hypothesis at the 0.05 level of significance, what decision would you
make using the p-value approach to hypothesis testing?

c. Interpret the meaning of the p-value in this problem.

d. Compare your conclusions in (a) and (b).

a.

H0 : µ≥855 mm

H1 : µ<855 mm

Z= (832-855)/(65/√25)=-23/13=-1.76

Critical value <- 1.645 then reject H0 the steel bars mean length is less than 855 mm

b. p value=0.0392<0.05 reject H0 the steel bars mean length is less than 855 mm

c. the p value is below 0.05 which means that the company should make an investigation
regarding its steel bar .

d. the two methods converge to the same point.

9.44 You are the manager of a restaurant that delivers pizza to customers. You have just
changed your delivery process in an effort to reduce the mean time between the order and
completion of delivery from the current 25 minutes. From past experience, you can assume
that the population standard deviation is 6 minutes. A sample of 36 orders using the new
delivery process yields a sample mean of 22.4 minutes.

a. Using the six-step critical value approach, at the 0.05 level of significance, is there
sufficient evidence that the mean delivery time has been reduced below the previous value of
25 minutes?

b. At the 0.05 level of significance, use the five-step p-value approach.

c. Interpret the meaning of the p-value in (b).

d. Compare your conclusions in (a) and (b)

a.

H0 : µ≥25 min

H1 : µ<25 min

Z=(22.4-25) /(6/√36)=-2.6/1= -2.6 rejection h0 the delivery takes less than 25 min

Critical value -1.645

b. 0.0047<0.05 reject h0 the delivery takes less than 25 min

c. the delivery takes less than 25 min.

d. they both converge to the same point

9.53 A large supermarket chain has a target average waiting time of 90 seconds for customers
who queue to use the self-service checkouts. To test that a particular store is meeting this
target, the waiting time for a random sample of 50 customers in this queue is recorded during
a one-day trading period. The average waiting time is found to be 101 seconds with a standard
deviation of 26.5 seconds. Using a 0.10 level of significance, is there sufficient evidence to
show that the actual waiting time is different from the target of 90 seconds?

H0 : µ=90s

H1 : µ≠90s

critical values -1.6766 and 1.6766

t=(101-90)/(26.5/√50)=2.93 reject h0 the average waiting time is different than 90

seconds.

9.54 You are the manager of a fast-food franchise. Last month the mean waiting time at the
counter, as measured from the time a customer places an order until the time the customer
receives the order, was 3.7 minutes. The franchise helped you to institute a new process
intended to reduce waiting time. You select a random sample of 64 orders. The sample mean
waiting time is 3.57 minutes with a sample standard deviation of 0.8 minutes. At the 0.05
level of significance, is there sufficient evidence that the population mean waiting time is
now less than 3.7 minutes?

H0 : µ ≥ 3.7min critical value t<-1.6694

H1 : µ<3.7 min t=(3.57-3.7)/(0.8/√64)= -1.3 keep H0

9.67 The Environmental Protection Authority in New South Wales published a paper which
discussed plastic shopping bags. The paper referred to a 2015 Omnipoll survey which showed
64% of NSW respondents supported a total ban on single-use plastic shopping bags
(Environmental Protection Authority, Plastic Shopping Bags: Options Paper, EPA 2016,
accessed 27 April 2018). Assume that a follow-up study is undertaken to see whether the
support for a ban on single-use plastic bags in NSW has increased. A random sample of 300
shoppers is surveyed and 205 support a ban on single-use plastic shopping bags.

a. At the 0.05 level of significance, use the six-step hypothesis-testing method to try to test
whether the proportion of shoppers using alternative bags is significantly higher.

b. Use the five-step p-value approach. Interpret the meaning of the p-value.

c. Repeat (a) and (b) using a sample size of 1,000 and the same sample proportion.

d. Discuss the effect that sample size had on the outcome of this analysis and, in general, on
the effect sample size plays in hypothesis testing.

a. p=205/300=0.6833 π=0.64

H0 :π≤0.64 critical value≥1.645

H1 : π>0.64

Z=(0.6833-0.64)/[(0.64*0.36)/300]^0.5=1.56 do not reject

b.P value >1.56 =1-(z=1.56)=1-0.9406 =0.0594 ; p value=0.0594 >0.05 do not reject

c. p=205/300=0.6833 π=0.64

H0 :π≤0.64 critical value>1.645

H1 : π>0.64

Z=(0.6833-0.64)/[(0.64*0.36)/1000]^0.5=2.85 reject H0

P value >2.85= 1- (z=2.85)= 1-0.9978 =0.0022 p value =0.0022 reject h0

d. sample size influence analysis and can change conclusions in terms of hypothesis testing .
9.68 The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that, for the year 2015–16, 38.2% of
businesses had a social media presence (Australian Bureau of Statistics, Business Use of
Information Technology, 2015–16, Cat. No. 8129.0). Assume a recent survey has been carried
out of 3,996 Australian businesses . Results show that 1,595 of them have a social media
presence.

a. At the 0.05 level of significance, use the six-step hypothesis-testing method to try to prove
that the percentage of businesses with a social media presence has increased from 38.2%.

b. Use the five-step p-value approach. Interpret the meaning of the p-value.

a. p=1596/3996 =0.3993 π=38.2%

H0 : π≤38.2%

H1 : π>38.2% critical value z>1.645

Z=(0.3993-0.382)/√[(0.382*0.618)/3996]=2.25 reject h0

b. 1-(z=2.25)=1-0.9878=0,0122 <0.05 reject h0