Energy Demand Analysis

Energy Units
Common short names for large numbers
Name Symbol Exp Name Symbol Exp

Kilo k 103 milli m 10-3

Mega M 106 micro µ 10-6

Giga G 109 nano n 10-9

Tera T 1012 pico p 10-12

Peta P 1015 femto f 10-15

Exa E 1018 atto a 10-18

Zetta Z 1021 zepto z 10-21

Yotta Y 1024 yocto y 10-24

Energy measurements

Symbol Name Equivalents

J Joule 1 J = 1 Ws
kJ Kilojoule 1 kJ = 103 J 0.278 Wh 0.9479 BTU
MJ Megajoule 1 MJ = 106 J 278 Wh
GJ Gigajoule 1 GJ = 109 J 278 kWh 0.0341 tce
TJ Terajoule 1 TJ = 1012 J 278 MWh 34.1 tce
PJ Petajoule 1 PJ = 1015 J 278 GWh 34,100 tce
EJ Exajoule 1 EJ = 1018 J 278 TWh 34.1 Mtce
kWh Kilowatthour 1 kWh = 3.6*106 J 3412 BTU
MWh Megawatthour 1 MWh = 3.6*109 J

TWh Terawatthour 1 TWh = 3.6*1015 J

BTU British Thermal Unit 1 BTU = 1055 J 252 cal
bbl 1ballel = 42 gallons 1 bbl = 158,984 lt 1581 kWh 5687*106 J
toe Ton of oil equivalent 1 toe = 41.8*109 J 1.428 tce 7.35 bbl

tce Ton of coal equivalent 1 tce = 29.3*109 J 0.7 toe 8.14 MWh
Power measurements

Symbol Name Equivalents

W Watt
kW Kilowatt 1 kW = 103 W 0.948 BTU/s 1.341 HP

MW Megawatt 1 MW = 106 W

GW Gigawatt 1 GW = 109 W

HP Horse power 1 HP = 0.746 kW 0.7068 BTU/s

Wth Thermal
power
Wel Electrical
power
Weight, Pressure & Temperature measurements
Symbol Name Equivalents
Weight T Tonne (metric ton) 1000 kg or 2,204 lbs

kt Kilotonne 1 kt = 103 t
Mt Megatonne 1 Mt = 106 t

Pressure Pa Pascal 1 N/m2

psi Pound-force/square inch 1 psi = 6.9 kPa

Atm Atmosphere 1 atm = 101 kPa

Bar Bar 1 bar = 100 kPa

Temperature ºC Degrees Celsius 0 ºC = 32 ºF = 273.15 K = 491.67 R

ºF Degrees Fahrenheit 0 ºF = -17.78 ºC = 255.37 K = 459.69 R

K Degrees Kelvin 0 oK = -273.15 oC = -459.67 oF = 0 R

R Degrees Rankine 0 oR = -273.15 oC = -459.67 oF – 0 K
Energy Contents of fuels
Fuel Typical Heating Value (LHV) Fuel Typical Heating Value (LHV)
Volumetric Gravimetric Volumetric Gravimetric
Electricity 1 kWh LPG 12.64 kWh/kg

Coal - 8.06 kWh/kg Propane 25.89 kWh/m3 12.88 kWh/kg

Crude oil 11.6 kWh/kg Butane 34.39 kWh/m3 12.7 kWh/kg

Diesel 10 kWh/l 11.9 kWh/kg Hydrogen 3.0 kWh/m3 33.33 kWh/kg

Gasoline 8.8 kWh/l 12.0 kWh/kg Methane 9.97 kWh/m3 13.9 kWh/kg

Kerosene 9.8 kWh/l 11.94 kWh/kg Town gas 4.54 kWh/m3 7.57 kWh/kg

Methanol 4.44 kWh/l 5.47 kWh/kg Biogas 6.5 kWh/m3 5.56 kWh/kg

Ethanol 5.86 kWh/l 7.42 kWh/kg Charcoal - 7.89 kWh/kg

Natural gas 8.8-10.4 kWh/m3 10.6-13.1 kWh/kg Fire wood - 4.28 kWh/kg
Load curves
 A load curve/profile is a graph of the
variation in the electrical load versus
time.
 A load profile will vary according to
customer type (typical examples include
residential, commercial and industrial),
temperature and holiday seasons.
 Power producers use this information to
plan how much electricity they will
need to make available at any given
time
 With the traditional curves, use of
power plants was predictable with
baseload units running all day,
intermediate load units starting in the
morning, and peaking units dispatched
to meet the seasonal load peaks.
In a power system, a load curve or load profile is a chart illustrating the variation in
demand/electrical load over a specific time. Generation companies use this information
to plan how much power they will need to generate at any given time.

In an electricity distribution grid, the load profile of electricity usage is important to the
efficiency and reliability of power transmission.
The power transformer or battery-to-grid are critical aspects of power distribution and
sizing and modelling of batteries or transformers depends on the load profile.

The factory specifications of transformers for the optimization of load losses versus no-
load losses is dependent directly on the characteristics of the load profile that the
transformer is expected to be subjected to.
This includes such characteristics as average load factor, diversity factor, utilization factor,
and demand factor, which can all be calculated based on a given load profile.
 With the growth of utility-scale
renewables, system operators
move from just looking at the
load curve to studying the net
load curve – the amount of
load that will served by
traditional generating units
after variable renewable supply
has been subtracted.
 In most regions, growth of DERs
has yet to show a significant
impact on load curves.
 But it is just a matter of time in
regions with fast growth in
rooftop solar.
Calculating and recording load profiles

Load profiles can be determined by direct metering but on smaller devices such as
distribution network transformers this is not routinely done.
Instead a load profile can be inferred from customer billing or other data. An example
of a practical calculation used by utilities is using a transformer's maximum demand
reading and taking into account the known number of each customer type supplied by
these transformers. This process is called load research.

Actual demand can be collected at strategic locations to perform more detailed load
analysis; this is beneficial to both distribution and end-user customers looking for
peak consumption.
Smart grid meters, utility meter load profilers, data logging sub-meters and portable
data loggers are designed to accomplish this task by recording readings at a set
interval.
Kenya’s load profile
Load factor

The load factor is defined as the average load divided by the peak load in a
specified time period.
It is a measure of the utilization rate, or efficiency of electrical energy usage; a
high load factor indicates that load is using the electric system more efficiently,
whereas consumers or generators that underutilize the electric distribution will
have a low load factor.
 Demand factor
The term demand factor is used to refer to the fractional amount of some quantity
being used relative to the maximum amount that could be used by the same system.
The demand factor is always less than or equal to one.
As the amount of demand is a time dependent quantity so is the demand factor.

Example: If a residence has equipment which could draw up to 6,000 W when all equipment was drawing a full
load, the it drew a maximum of 3,000 W in a specified time, the demand factor is hence = 3,000 W / 6,000 W = 0.5
Capacity factor
The capacity factor is the unit-less ratio of actual electrical energy output over a given
period of time to the theoretical maximum electrical energy output over that period.
The theoretical maximum energy output of a given installation is defined as that due to
its continuous operation at full nameplate capacity over the relevant period.

Nuclear power plant

Wind farm

Photovoltaic power station

Diversity factor
The diversity factor is the ratio of the sum of the individual non-coincident maximum
loads of various subdivisions of the system to the maximum demand of the complete
system.

Utilization factor
The utilization factor or use factor is the ratio of the time that a piece of equipment is
in use to the total time that it could be in use. It is often averaged over time in the
definition such that the ratio becomes the amount of energy used divided by the
maximum possible to be used.
Demand Estimation

Drivers of energy demand

Increase in the demand for energy is as a result of;

 Rapid development in industry, agriculture, transport and other sectors

 Increase in populations
 Gross national products
 Import and export figures

Estimations are made regarding the amounts of energy that a country will
need in the future and plans are formulated based on these estimations
Statistical methods are used for Demand Estimation

 Simple regression methods - E.g. State Planning models

 Econometric models
Model for the Analysis of the Energy Demand (MAED), Optimal Renewable Energy
Mathematical Model (OREM) & Energy Simulation Model (ESM) use changes in population
and GNP/GDP.

 Multiple linear regression analysis

When the explanatory variables are related to one another, the estimates made can be
biased and inconsistent (multicollinearity).
Partial Least Squares (PLSR) and Ridge Regression (RR) methods are used to overcome this.
Thank you