Professional Documents
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Introduction
Understanding Climate Change: Lesson Plans for the Classroom Fraser Institute © 2009 www.fraserinstitute.org 11
Correlation Is Not Causation
when searching for any links between CO2 and Greenhouse gases
the earth’s complex weather systems.
Although they comprise less than 5% of the
The scientific method helps us to differentiate atmosphere (when water vapor is included),
between correlation and causation by testing greenhouse gases are critical to life on earth.
hypotheses. Whether our hypotheses are confirmed Water vapor, CO2, methane, ozone, nitrous oxide,
or discredited, our knowledge and understanding and some human-made compounds affect surface
of the world will be expanded through the process. and atmospheric temperatures by increasing the
amount of heat energy that is captured.
Learning about the atmosphere and its major
components will improve students’ understand- Approximately 70% of the sun’s energy (solar
ing of the interplay between human actions and radiation) is absorbed by earth’s surface, oceans,
climate. and atmosphere. The remaining 30% is reflected
back into space. As solar radiation is absorbed at
Atmosphere the earth’s surface, infrared radiation is released
back into the atmosphere. When this radiation
The atmosphere is the blanket of air that sur- comes in contact with greenhouse gases, a simi-
rounds earth and reaches upwards of 500 km into lar exchange of energy occurs: the gases both
space (though about 99% of its mass exists within absorb and radiate energy. Part of this energy
31 km of earth’s surface). This air is composed of escapes into space and part of it radiates back
multiple layers, each with varying temperatures, toward earth’s surface. As the concentration of
gas compositions, and densities. The atmosphere greenhouse gases increases, the amount of heat
2 protects us from the sun’s ultraviolet radiation,
insulates us from extreme heat and cold, and
energy radiating in the atmosphere increases, and
more of that energy is likely to remain near the
plays a critical role in the cycling of carbon, surface of the earth, causing temperatures there
Introduction water, and other components that are vital to life. to increase.
The dry atmosphere is primarily composed of The term “greenhouse effect” is a misnomer,
nitrogen (78%) and oxygen (20.9%), with argon however. The radiation of energy in the atmo-
and other gases accounting for less than 1%. sphere is quite different from the warming
On its own, carbon dioxide accounts for only dynamics in an actual greenhouse. In a green-
0.038%. Other gases, including ozone, methane, house, heat becomes trapped because the glass
and various natural and synthetic molecules, are restricts an exchange of air between the inside
also present, but comprise less than 0.0002% and the outside of the structure. The interaction
of the atmosphere. Water vapor is a small but between the sun’s heat and greenhouse gases
important component of air that is found in could be more accurately described as the “atmo-
differing amounts throughout the atmosphere— sphere” effect. In the atmosphere, greenhouse
from just a trace in cold and arid regions to as gases facilitate the mixing of air through the
much as 4% in tropical regions. exchange of energy between space, the atmo-
sphere, and earth’s surface.
The troposphere is the layer of atmosphere clos-
est to earth, extending from the surface to about Water vapor is the most common greenhouse
18 km at the equator and 6.5 km at the poles. It gas. Water vapor condenses into clouds, which
contains the air we breathe, our weather (includ- can both warm and cool the planet. Clouds warm
ing clouds), and most of the atmosphere’s water the planet by trapping heat near earth’s surface.
vapor and other greenhouse gases. Alternatively, clouds cool the planet by reflecting
the sun’s radiation back into space. A multitude
12 Understanding Climate Change: Lesson Plans for the Classroom Fraser Institute © 2009 www.fraserinstitute.org
Correlation Is Not Causation
of other environmental factors, including wind Methane makes up about 0.00017% of the atmo-
and topography, also affect the impact of clouds sphere. An estimated 60% of methane emissions
on temperatures. originate from fossil fuel production, rice cultiva-
tion, livestock, burning of biomass, and landfill
The primary source of water vapor in the emissions. [7] Natural sources include wetlands,
atmosphere is evaporation from surface waters, permafrost, termites, oceans, wildfires, and soils.
including oceans, lakes, rivers, ponds, and even Atmospheric concentrations of methane have
puddles and dew. Other sources include volcanic varied widely over time, but have remained rela-
eruptions, forest fires, and the combustion of tively stable since 1998.
fossil fuels.
Carbon dioxide is the second most abundant
The atmosphere can only hold a finite amount greenhouse gas, though it only makes up approx-
of water. Once water vapor reaches a saturation imately 0.038% of the total atmosphere. [8] Like
point in the atmosphere, it condenses into clouds water vapor, carbon and carbon dioxide are
and water droplets, eventually precipitating back continuously cycling through the atmosphere,
to the earth in the form of rain, sleet, hail, or oceans, and land through both human and natural
snow. As temperatures increase, the atmosphere processes. Plants and other vegetation remove
is able to hold more water before reaching the CO2 from the atmosphere during photosynthesis.
saturation point. Hence, water vapor concentra- The carbon is then used to produce energy and
tions generally increase with temperature. In biomass—the same biomass that is consumed
other words, if temperatures remain constant, by humans and other organisms. Plants, animals,
then increased evaporation or emissions of water and humans release CO2 into the atmosphere
vapor will have virtually no impact on atmo-
spheric concentrations. Instead, more clouds
through respiration and decay. Other natural
sources of emissions include wildfires, volca-
2
will form and water will precipitate out of the noes, and oceans, which also absorb significant
atmosphere. amounts of CO2 from the air. In total, natural Introduction
sources of CO2 make up roughly 96.2% of all
Water vapor is present in widely varying amounts CO2 emissions into the air. The other 3.8% can be
around the globe depending on temperature, attributed directly to human activities, primarily
latitude, and altitude. Generally, the air above deforestation and the burning of fossil fuels. [9]
tropical regions contains more water vapor than
the air above polar regions; the air at lower Whether carbon dioxide emissions resulting
elevations contains more water vapor than the from human actions have contributed to climate
air at higher altitudes. [3] Estimating global change is a matter of intense debate. The fact
average levels of water vapor has been difficult; that the climate is always changing is often
in fact, the accuracy of such estimates is thought overlooked.
to be between 10% and 30%. [4] Despite our
inability to accurately measure global levels, Earth’s climate is driven by myriad factors,
there is little doubt that water vapor is the most including solar activity, variations in the earth’s
abundant and most important greenhouse gas in orbit and rotation, and changes in ocean and wind
the atmosphere. [5] Moreover, there is significant currents. Current research is focused on the role
evidence that water vapor levels have been of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in climate
increasing in recent decades. [6] change; however, scientists are also exploring
other factors and, in doing so, are helping us to
refine our understanding of the climate system.
Understanding Climate Change: Lesson Plans for the Classroom Fraser Institute © 2009 www.fraserinstitute.org 13
Correlation Is Not Causation
Figure 2.1: Estimated temperature and carbon dioxide levels in Antarctica over the past 650,000 years
- 50 220
- 56
- 62
Source: Physics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland. Adapted from Fretwell, Holly (2007). The Sky’s Not Fall-
ing: Why It’s Okay to Chill about Global Warming. World Ahead Media.
14 Understanding Climate Change: Lesson Plans for the Classroom Fraser Institute © 2009 www.fraserinstitute.org
Correlation Is Not Causation
References
2
5 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] (2007).
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Intergov-
ernmental Panel on Climate Change. <http://www.ipcc.ch/
ipccreports/ar4-wg1.htm>.
6 IPCC (2007).
Introduction
7 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] (2001). Cli-
mate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Work-
ing Group I to the Third Assessment of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
4 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (2008). Trends
in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide - Mauna Loa. <http://www.esrl.
noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/>.
This CO2 concentration (383.9 ppm) is the average of monthly
mean CO2 data for the period July 2007 to June 2008.
5 IPCC (2007).
6 Fischer, Hubertus, Martin Wahlen, Jesse Smith, Derek Mastroi-
anna, and Bruce Deck (1999). Ice Core Records of Atmospheric
Carbon Dioxide Around the Last Three Glacial Terminations.
Science 283, 5408: 1712–14.
Understanding Climate Change: Lesson Plans for the Classroom Fraser Institute © 2009 www.fraserinstitute.org 15
Correlation Is Not Causation
Lesson 2-A
Correlation and causation
Procedure
16 Understanding Climate Change: Lesson Plans for the Classroom Fraser Institute © 2009 www.fraserinstitute.org
Correlation Is Not Causation
Visual 2.1
Correlation and causation
Correlation
Correlation is a systematic pattern that may emerge when we observe
two variables over time. It does not imply causation, however, because
other unmeasured variables may be producing the result.
2
vs. Visual
2.1
Causation
Understanding Climate Change: Lesson Plans for the Classroom Fraser Institute © 2009 www.fraserinstitute.org 17
Correlation Is Not Causation
Worksheet 2.1
Correlation is not causation
Observation: Levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have risen and the Mid-
western United States has been hit by massive floods.
Form three alternate hypotheses to explain the cause of the flooding in the
Midwest.
2
3
Worksheet
2.1
Pick one of the three alternate hypotheses and briefly describe how you might
test it. What data might be relevant?
If you were to test each of your alternative hypotheses and found evidence
to support each, would this be sufficient to reject the hypothesis that global
warming, caused by higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, caused
flooding in the Midwest?
18 Understanding Climate Change: Lesson Plans for the Classroom Fraser Institute © 2009 www.fraserinstitute.org
Correlation Is Not Causation
Observation: Levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have risen and the Mid-
western United States has been hit by massive floods.
Form three alternate hypotheses to explain the cause of the flooding in the
Midwest.
3 A wet spring delayed farm plantings, which meant that there were fewer
fields of crops to catch run-off.
2
Worksheet
Pick one of the three alternate hypotheses and briefly describe how you might 2.1
test it. What data might be relevant? Answer
Key
The El Nina effect, the result of cooler-than-normal ocean temperatures,
increased snowfall. The snowmelt in spring subsequently swelled rivers.
Testing the El Nina effect would require data on ocean temperatures, as well
as measurements of snowfall for various years. Data on the rise of rivers also
would be needed to determine the impact on flooding.
If you were to test each of your alternative hypotheses and found evidence
to support each, would this be sufficient to reject the hypothesis that global
warming, caused by higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, caused
flooding in the Midwest?
No. Support for one hypothesis does not mean that another hypothesis is
incorrect. More than one factor may be at play. However, the existence of
flooding during periods when carbon dioxide levels were lower and tempera-
tures were cooler would cast doubt on the global warming hypothesis.
Understanding Climate Change: Lesson Plans for the Classroom Fraser Institute © 2009 www.fraserinstitute.org 19
Correlation Is Not Causation
20 Understanding Climate Change: Lesson Plans for the Classroom Fraser Institute © 2009 www.fraserinstitute.org
Correlation Is Not Causation
The troposphere is the layer of atmosphere clos- Water vapor is the most common greenhouse
est to earth, extending from the surface to about gas. Water vapor condenses into clouds, which
18 km at the equator and 6.5 km at the poles. It can both warm and cool the planet. Clouds warm
contains the air we breathe, our weather (includ- the planet by trapping heat near earth’s surface.
ing clouds), and most of the atmosphere’s water Alternatively, clouds cool the planet by reflecting
vapor and other greenhouse gases. the sun’s radiation back into space. A multitude
of other environmental factors, including wind
Greenhouse gases and topography, also affect the impact of clouds
on temperatures.
Although they comprise less than 5% of the
atmosphere (when water vapor is included), The primary source of water vapor in the
greenhouse gases are critical to life on earth. atmosphere is evaporation from surface waters,
Water vapor, CO2, methane, ozone, nitrous oxide, including oceans, lakes, rivers, ponds, and even
and some human-made compounds affect surface puddles and dew. Other sources include volcanic
and atmospheric temperatures by increasing the eruptions, forest fires, and the combustion of
amount of heat energy that is captured. fossil fuels.
Understanding Climate Change: Lesson Plans for the Classroom Fraser Institute © 2009 www.fraserinstitute.org 21
Correlation Is Not Causation
The atmosphere can only hold a finite amount continuously cycling through the atmosphere,
of water. Once water vapor reaches a saturation oceans, and land through both human and natural
point in the atmosphere, it condenses into clouds processes. Plants and other vegetation remove
and water droplets, eventually precipitating back CO2 from the atmosphere during photosynthesis.
to the earth in the form of rain, sleet, hail, or The carbon is then used to produce energy and
snow. As temperatures increase, the atmosphere biomass—the same biomass that is consumed
is able to hold more water before reaching the by humans and other organisms. Plants, animals,
saturation point. Hence, water vapor concentra- and humans release CO2 into the atmosphere
tions generally increase with temperature. In through respiration and decay. Other natural
other words, if temperatures remain constant, sources of emissions include wildfires, volca-
then increased evaporation or emissions of water noes, and oceans, which also absorb significant
vapor will have virtually no impact on atmo- amounts of CO2 from the air. In total, natural
spheric concentrations. Instead, more clouds sources of CO2 make up roughly 96.2% of all
will form and water will precipitate out of the CO2 emissions into the air. The other 3.8% can be
atmosphere. attributed directly to human activities, primarily
deforestation and the burning of fossil fuels. [7]
Water vapor is present in widely varying amounts
around the globe depending on temperature, Whether carbon dioxide emissions resulting
latitude, and altitude. Generally, the air above from human actions have contributed to climate
tropical regions contains more water vapor than change is a matter of intense debate. The fact
the air above polar regions; the air at lower that the climate is always changing is often
elevations contains more water vapor than the overlooked.
2 air at higher altitudes. [1] Estimating global
average levels of water vapor has been difficult; Earth’s climate is driven by myriad factors,
in fact, the accuracy of such estimates is thought including solar activity, variations in the earth’s
Student to be between 10% and 30%. [2] Despite our orbit and rotation, and changes in ocean and wind
Reading inability to accurately measure global levels, currents. Current research is focused on the role
there is little doubt that water vapor is the most of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in climate
abundant and most important greenhouse gas in change; however, scientists are also exploring
the atmosphere. [3] Moreover, there is significant other factors and, in doing so, are helping us to
evidence that water vapor levels have been refine our understanding of the climate system.
increasing in recent decades. [4]
What does the evidence tell us?
Methane makes up about 0.00017% of the atmo-
sphere. An estimated 60% of methane emissions It may appear that temperatures rise and fall
originate from fossil fuel production, rice cultiva- in tandem with levels of carbon dioxide in the
tion, livestock, burning of biomass, and landfill atmosphere. Look at Figure 2.1. The bottom line
emissions. [5] Natural sources include wetlands, represents the estimated temperature in Antarc-
permafrost, termites, oceans, wildfires, and soils. tica over the past 650,000 years. The top line is
Atmospheric concentrations of methane have the estimated level of carbon dioxide in the atmo-
varied widely over time, but have remained rela- sphere over the same period.
tively stable since 1998.
The data were calculated by analyzing the com-
Carbon dioxide is the second most abundant position of air bubbles trapped within ice cores.
greenhouse gas, though it only makes up approx- As snow falls and freezes year after year, air
imately 0.038% of the total atmosphere. [6] Like bubbles get trapped between layers. Scientists
water vapor, carbon and carbon dioxide are have drilled into the ice in Antarctica and Green-
22 Understanding Climate Change: Lesson Plans for the Classroom Fraser Institute © 2009 www.fraserinstitute.org
Correlation Is Not Causation
Figure 2.1: Estimated temperature and carbon dioxide levels in Antarctica over the past 650,000 years
- 50 220
- 56
- 62
Source: Physics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland. Adapted from Fretwell, Holly (2007). The Sky’s Not Fall-
ing: Why It’s Okay to Chill about Global Warming. World Ahead Media.
Understanding Climate Change: Lesson Plans for the Classroom Fraser Institute © 2009 www.fraserinstitute.org 23
Correlation Is Not Causation
Visual 2.2
Atmosphere
r that surrounds
What is the e a i th
e
Th
Atmosphere?
ea
rth
a nd
reaches int
• Protects us from ultraviolet
radiation and meteors
o s
2
pa
• Insulates the planet from extreme
c
temperatures
e
Visual
2.2
• 78.1% nitrogen
• 20.9% oxygen
• 0.9% argon
24 Understanding Climate Change: Lesson Plans for the Classroom Fraser Institute © 2009 www.fraserinstitute.org
Correlation Is Not Causation
Visual 2.3
Greenhouse gases
• Atmospheric CO2 and water vapor are part of the global carbon and hydrologic cycles.
Understanding Climate Change: Lesson Plans for the Classroom Fraser Institute © 2009 www.fraserinstitute.org 25
Correlation Is Not Causation
Visual 2.4
Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
2
other gases – 99.966%
Visual
2.4
Source: Blasing, T.J. (2008). Recent Greenhouse Gas Concentrations. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.
<http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/pns/current_ghg.html>. Updated December 2008.
26 Understanding Climate Change: Lesson Plans for the Classroom Fraser Institute © 2009 www.fraserinstitute.org
Correlation Is Not Causation
Visual 2.5
Human CO2 emissions
Human – 3.4%
2
Visual
2.5
Natural – 96.6%
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science
Basis. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. <http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg1.htm>.
Understanding Climate Change: Lesson Plans for the Classroom Fraser Institute © 2009 www.fraserinstitute.org 27
Correlation Is Not Causation
Worksheet 2.2
CO2 and temperature correlation
Looking at the graph below, what can you conclude about the relationship
between atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and temperature?
Estimated temperature and carbon dioxide levels in Antarctica over the past 650,000 years
2
260
Temperature (°C)
- 50 220
- 56
Worksheet - 62
2.2
600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Source: Physics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland. Adapted from Fretwell, Holly (2007). The Sky’s Not
Falling: Why It’s Okay to Chill about Global Warming. World Ahead Media.
Form two hypotheses that may explain the correlation between CO2 and
temperature.
28 Understanding Climate Change: Lesson Plans for the Classroom Fraser Institute © 2009 www.fraserinstitute.org
Correlation Is Not Causation
Looking at the graph below, what can you conclude about the relationship
between atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and temperature?
There is a simple correlation between CO2 levels and temperature in that they
tend to increase and decrease in a similar pattern. In the natural world, many
observable events are correlated. There are times when one event may directly
or partially cause the other, in which case correlation does mean causation.
Other times, the events are caused by external variables or they may be purely
coincidental. The graph shows a correlation but does not provide enough evi-
dence to determine causation. There is little doubt that humans have caused
the increase in CO2 levels in the last 100 years; however, it is unclear what
effect, if any, this increase has had on temperatures.
Estimated temperature and carbon dioxide levels in Antarctica over the past 650,000 years
380
2
CO2 concentration (ppm)
340
300
260
- 50
Temperature (°C)
220
Worksheet
- 56 2.2
- 62 Answer
Key
600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Form two hypotheses that may explain the correlation between CO2 and
temperature.
Understanding Climate Change: Lesson Plans for the Classroom Fraser Institute © 2009 www.fraserinstitute.org 29
Correlation Is Not Causation
Visual 2.6
Climate variation
- 50 220
- 56
- 62
2
Visual
But CO2 follows temperature change
2.6
- 50 220
- 56
- 62
30 Understanding Climate Change: Lesson Plans for the Classroom Fraser Institute © 2009 www.fraserinstitute.org