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IO/DW2G3
Abstract
The purpose of current study is to investigate whether a relationship exists between credit risk and Islamic banks’
profitability in the MENA region. For this purpose, the sample selected is obtained from 12 MENA countries
covering 20 Islamic banks as panel data over ten years period from 2011 till 2020. The fixed effect models were
relied upon to analysis data. This study discusses the results of two profitability measures (ROA and ROE) to
explain how they are distinct from each other. Using credit risk as independent variable. The results show that
credit risk has a significant negative impact on the profitability of Islamic banks measured by ROA and ROE.
Keywords: Islamic Banks, Profitability, Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE), Panel Data, MENA
Region Countries.
1. INTRODUCTION
Banks have an essential and important role in countries through the development of various
commercial and non-commercial sectors and to create economic development, living in a world
without the services of the banking sector is impossible, this is an unimaginable life. (Alfityani,
A. M. I., & Ali, M. A., 2019) Whereas all financial transactions whether it's individual and
business that we participate in are done through banks, they participate in the economy of the
country through implementing the tools of the monetary system of the central banks (Asad
Ullah et al. 2020).
Islamic finance system represents any institution, firm, and tool that achieve profits without
dealing with interest in their operations and share any profit or loss generated with all parties
involved. Therefore, the risks and returns of investments are shared by all parties, therefore,
(MANSUR, H., RAHMAN, A. A. A., SHATNAWI, A., ALFITYANI, A., ALMASRI, B., &
ALSAAIDEH, F., 2020) this system provides justice by sharing actual profits with the
participating parties based on the amount they invested (Alzoubi, 2018).
The Islamic and conventional banks mainly differ in the principles followed in their
transactions, (Alsmadi, A., Alfityani, A., Alhwamdeh, L., Al_hazimeh, A., & Al-Gasawneh, J.
(2022) Islamic financial transactions follow basic principles; first, financing purpose must not
include any activity which is prohibited by Islamic laws. Second, it must not involve any type
of Reba. Third, (Al-Gasawneh, J., Alfityani, A., Al-Okdeh, S., Almasri, B., Mansur, H.,
Nusairat, N., & Siam, Y. (2022).) economic activity must not include any type of oppression
(Zulm). Fourth, the activity should not consist of speculation. (Al-lozi, E., Alfityani, A.,
Alsmadi, A., Al_Hazimeh, A., & Al-Gasawne, J. (2022)) Fifth, Zakat payments must be done.
Sixth, products and services that oppose the laws of Islam must be avoided (Inyangala, 2014).
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While conventional banks perform operations based on interest, clients’ installments are based
on fixed interest on their facilities (loans) balance (Alzoubi, 2018).
This study will examine the impact most threatening risk to the Islamic banks’ profitability,
(Almajali, D., Maali, H., & Almajali, H. (2022)) because the mismanagement of risks may lead
to an effect on their profitability in a negative or unfavorable way (Mennawi. 2020).
1.1 The problem of the study
Due to the increase in the Muslims population around the world, and the increase of non-
Muslim customers who are interested and intend to deal with Islamic banks, Islamic finance
has gained great and important attention on the global stage, especially in resisting the recent
global crisis. As a result, different risk types appeared such as credit hence, a major issue is
identified which is represented by the problem of this articles: “the mismanaging of credit risk
by Islamic banks shall potentially affect their profitability in unfavorable or negative way”.
Consequently, this leads to a negative impact extending to banks’ owners, management, funds’
depositors, and other stakeholders.
1.2 Important of the study
The research is important to several parties including the government and management. It is
vital to government since banks are considered the backbone of the economy. Combating
inflation and recession occurs by the implementation of the monetary policies through the
banks, hence, understanding the risks faced by these financial institutions will help the
government to properly deal with any unforeseeable concerns. Moreover, understanding these
risks will help the government in setting the regulations that will assure the continuity of the
banks and avoid going bankrupt. Regarding the management, understanding how these risks
affect profitability will help in managing them effectively. Management will be able to make
the appropriate decisions accordingly. Appropriately setting credit policies to reduce credit
risk.
1.3 Objectives of the study
The prime goal of this study to investigate the effect of credit risk on Islamic banks’
profitability in the MENA region, between (2011–2020) and determine whether it has a
positive or negative impact based on several statistical methods
1.4 Research Questions
This part contains a prime question that needs answer to determine if risks impact the
profitability of Islamic banks, the main question is going to be:
- What is the impact of credit risk on the Islamic bank’s profitability?
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2. LITERATURE REVIEW
Mennawi (2020) investigates the impact of liquidity risk, credit risk, and financial leverage
risk on the profitability of Sudan Islamic banks between 2008 and 2018, he relied on a sample
consisting of 13 Islamic banks in Sudan. The result shows credit risk has negative effects on
the profitability of Islamic bank in Sudan. He recommends that Islamic banks in Sudan need
to manage credit risk through diversification of different investment portfolios also effective
credit strategy, also banks need to effectively manage liquidity tools and attract and generate
more stable cash to enhance and promote long-term investment and bank position. Saiful and
Puspita (2019) examine the impact of liquidity, efficiency ratio, and credit risk management
on financial performance in Indonesian banks, using a sample consisting of 11 Islamic banks
and 26 conventional banks during the period 2012-2016, the results indicate for conventional
banks, credit risk management has a positive impact on return on assets only, also liquidity risk
management has a positive impact on return on assets and return on equity, also result found
efficiency ratio has a positive impact on return on assets, return on equity and net interest
margin. Shair et al. (2019) examine whether profitability is positively or negatively or
insignificantly impacted by risks and competition covering 26 Islamic and foreign banks in
Pakistan. The sample relied upon consists of data collected from the World Bank and the
Ministry of Finance in Pakistan from 2007 to 2017.The results demonstrate that profitability
was positively impacted by size of the bank, however, negatively impacted by credit risk.
Alzoubi (2018) investigate which factors that impacts on profitability of both Islamic banks
and conventional banks by focusing on the internal factor, he relied on data extracted by sample
consisting of 26 conventional banks and 42 Islamic banks from 13 countries in MENA region
during period started from 2006 and end to 2016,whereas independent variable is represented
by cash to assets, capital adequacy, deposit to assets, loan to assets, securities to assets, and
bank size, additionally he relied on profitability measured by return on assets as a dependent
variable, thus, the results state profitability of Islamic banks has positively impacted by bank
size while they have a negative impact on profitability of conventional banks, on the other side
, he concludes the profitability of Islamic bank and conventional banks have insignificantly
affected by loans to assets , also the results show bank size it is managed in Islamic banks
better than in conventional banks. Suseno and Bamahriz (2017) examine and analyse the
effect of banks risk on profitability in Islamic banks, the sample used in this study consists of
75 Islamic banks in 24 countries in 2015, authors used in this study profitability as dependent
variable measure by Return on Average Equity (ROAE), Return on Average Assets (ROAA)
and value-added, also they choose the banks risk consists of liquidity risk, credit risk,
insolvency risk, and efficiency ratio as independent variables, while controlling variables
consists of bank size and inflation, the results indicate the profitability of Islamic banks is
significantly negatively affected by credit risk, On the other hand, the size of the bank has
insignificant impact on bank profitability.
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variables since the literature review provides evidence that ROA and ROE are common and
widely used measurements to explain the financial performance of Islamic banks throughout
profitability status, and were used by most authors.
**Return on assets: represent the ability of Islamic banks to use assets to generate profit.
Alzoubi (2018) defines the ROA as the ability of Islamic banks to invest each unit of money in
assets in order to generate profit. Also, Van Horne (2005) indicates that return on assets
measures the income on the banks’ assets after deducting all expenses and taxes.
Return on asset is calculated as the following:
ROA = (Net income after tax / Total Assets)…. (1)
**Return on Equity: Kabete (2012) indicates that the Return on Equity is used to represent
the level of return on the firm’s capital or the ability of the firm to use the effectiveness of
capital owners to generate profits. Hidayat and Abduh (2012) also indicate ROE that represents
the profit generated for each equity dollar. The ROE represents achieving profit based on
shareholders' investment. Also, it tells the shareholders of Islamic banks the percentage of
earnings achieved based on the book value of invested capital (Goudreau. 1992).
Return on equity is calculated as the following:
ROE = (Net income after tax / Total shareholder's equity)…. (2)
3.2.2 Independent Variable
**Credit risk: Suseno and Bamahriz (2017) define this risk as the risk that arises when the
borrower faces difficulties in repaying financing and interest. In this scenario, the lender or the
financier may lose the facility amount along with the profit related to it (interest).Moreover,
Mennawi (2020) indicates the Loan Loss Provision is established by the management of
Islamic banks to absorb any potential losses caused by failed collection or suspicious
collections from the parties dealing with the bank and non-performing loans. Also, he expects
that any change in the Loan Loss Provision ratio will lead to a change in the same direction on
credit risk.
Credit risks are calculated as the following:
Credit Risk (CR) = Financing Loss Provision / Gross Financing…. (3)
The quality of loans is measured by this ratio. An increase in this ratio means poorer loan
quality which requires the management of Islamic banks to make decisions in order to protect
the bank from credit risk.
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4. ANALYSIS
The analysis was drawn from the numbers taken from the financial statements and annual
reports of the Islamic banks, the analysis of the study variables is used in order to quantitatively
describe the main characteristics of the study variables through the use of measures of central
tendency and measures of dispersion, Arithmetic means, median, maximum and minimum
value, standard deviation, correlation, regression and more.
4.1 Descriptive Analysis
In this study, the statistical tools will be applied in order to show the relationship between
dependent variables (ROA and ROE) and independent variable (CR) by performing descriptive
analysis according to the following table.
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is skewed towards the right. On the other hand, the variable (return on equity), has a mean that
is less than the median, therefore, the curve will be skewed to the left.
As for the observations, a sample of 20 banks was selected from the year 2011 to the year 2020,
meaning that we have 200 observations. This number of observations helps us to reduce
standard deviation, therefore, reducing errors and the results become better since the larger the
sample size, the fewer errors are noted.
4.2 Correlation Coefficients
This table measures the strength and type of relationship between the independent variable and
the dependent variable.
Table 4.2 correlation matrix
ROA ROE CR
ROA 1
ROE 0.6528 1
CR -0.2096 -0.3347 1
Note: the ROA in the table above represents the return on assets. Moving to the next column,
the ROE stands for return on equity. Regarding the CR represents credit risk.
The result of the correlation matrix shows that there is consistency in the results. Credit risk
has a negative or inverse impact that can be noted on the return on assets and return on equity
since the increase in credit risk means an increase in the expected credit loss and thus a decrease
in net income, which leads to a decrease in the return on assets and return on equity.
Based on the results of the above table, a very weak correlation was not noted, and this indicates
that the research variables are appropriate for the research problem. The data collected
measures the variables correctly, and the sample represents the population.
A correlation between the independent variable and the dependent variables was noted. If no
correlation was identified, the model used will be inappropriate. Furthermore, there is no
reverse cause-and-effect relationship between independent variable and dependent variables.
4.3 Regression Analysis
After implementing test tools for this sample, it was found that the fixed effect best fits ROA
and ROE.
Table 4-4 shows the regression results based on the ROA and ROE as the dependent variables
using the fixed effect as the testing tool
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ROA ROE
C 0.1996 * 0.9355
CR -0.0638 *** -1.5194 ***
Adjusted R Square 38.74% 35.82%
F – statistic 4.7008 *** 4.2667 ***
Hausman test 11.6023* 44.5786***
Likelihood ratio 63.4904 *** 91.7642 ***
Note: the CR represents the credit risk... The * represents the p-value at a significant level of
10%. While the ** represents the p-value at a significant level of l 5%. Finally, the ***
demonstrates a p-value at a significant level of 1%.
The acceptance or rejection of the hypothesis will be based on the results of the above table
and the p-value test. The p-value is used to determine the probability of obtaining extreme
results, assuming that the null hypothesis is true to determine whether I can accept or reject a
hypothesis. In general, cannot favour any variable over another and generalize the result to all
the samples only after doing this statistical analysis. Where a smaller probability value means
that there is stronger evidence to reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative
hypothesis. The results of the above table are illustrated below.
CR has a low probability P-value which tends to (0.01) and this is strong evidence in favour of
the alternative hypothesis and rejects the null hypothesis that states there is no significant
impact between bank profitability and credit risk of Islamic banks. This means a negative and
significant impact can be noted between the credit risk with the return on assets and return on
equity because the increase in credit risk means an increase in the expected credit loss and thus
a decrease in net income, which leads to a decrease in the return on assets and return on equity.
The R square represents a determination of the coefficient, based on the above table, the value
of the adjusted R square is 38.75% of the variance in the dependent variable return on assets,
which is explained and clarified by the independent variables in the model. The closer the R
square to (1), the independent variables will better clarify the dependent variables. It also
indicates that the independent variables are suitable for the research problem. However, the
independent variables clarify ROE by 35.82%.
Table 4.4 shows the results of accepting and rejecting hypotheses
Hypothesis ROA ROE
There is a significant impact between bank profitability and
credit risk of Islamic Banks. Accept Accept
Finally, based on the previous results, a consistency between the results of the return on assets
and the return on equity can be concluded. Whereas the credit risk has a negative impact on
both the return on assets and the return on equity.
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Based on the results of the study, it was found that credit risk had consistent results with Shair,
Mennawi, and Belkhawi, however, the results were different for Saiful which had a positive
impact on the credit risk on profitability. While Chong and Quan concluded that the impact of
credit risk on profitability is insignificant.
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5.3 Limitations
This study was faced with a few limitations, especially regarding the data set as data on Islamic
banks is not easily accessible since not all Islamic banks’ financial statements are available on
their websites or any other public source. In addition, some banks were excluded from the
sample since they are operating within a country under crisis and most of their financial
statements were not updated. Since the sample was obtained from several countries, there were
some difficulties due to the different terminology used in the financial statements. Moreover,
the study was limited to the coverage period from 2011 to 2020 whereas the sample did not
cover all the periods with different economic phases. The sample is limited to 20 banks, the
use of historical data and variables in the study does not cover all types of risks that may affect
Islamic banks. This could led to a broader dimension of the problem.
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