TTBR (Topics To Be Read) 23 December 2023

Today's Topics To Be Read (TTBR)

1
Parched Punjab (The Tribune)
2
In India, what women who run need (Indian Express)
3
The regulator’s challenge in the age of AI (Indian Express)
4
Awards for words: On the Sahitya Akademi awards (The Hindu)
5
Israel is fighting in the dark in Gaza (The Hindu)
6
Tax ‘HFSS’ foods, view it as a public health imperative (The Hindu)
7
Reserve Bank of India: A sledgehammer approach (Financial
Express)
8
Economists as detectives: Claudia Goldin tells us how economists
unearth knowledge from data (Financial Express)
9
Why tar all foreign universities with the same brush? (Business Line)
10
AI regulation needs to get serious and global (Business Line)
TTBR (Topics To Be Read) 23 December 2023

Parched Punjab (The Tribune)

Groundwater extraction rate remains alarming

WITH groundwater extraction exceeding water recharge by an alarming 163 per cent
in Punjab, the state is the worst off in the country, as per the Dynamic Ground Water
Resource of India report, which was tabled in the Lok Sabha during the just-concluded
winter session of Parliament. Rajasthan (148.77 per cent) is second, followed by
Haryana (135.74 per cent). The national average is around 59 per cent. The Central
Ground Water Board has warned that at the current rate of extraction, groundwater
at an average depth of up to 100 metres will be exhausted in Punjab by 2029 and will
drop below 300 metres 10 years later, even as many parts of the state have already
reached the 150-200-metre stage. The decline must be urgently arrested as water
below this level is considered unfit for both drinking and irrigation.
It is well documented that this grim situation stems from the cultivation of paddy, a
water-guzzling crop. Farmers opt for paddy in view of a robust procurement system
and the inability of the state and Central governments to promote viable alternatives
such as millets. This is evident from the high density of tubewells — one for every six
acres of Punjab’s cultivable area — as well as diesel pumps. The Punjab State Power
Corporation Limited has flagged the fact that districts with a critical water table have
the highest number of tubewells.
This trend of overexploitation of groundwater is worrisome. It indicates that
successive governments have failed to address the factors responsible for the
accelerating water depletion rate. Effective steps have not been taken to save states
such as Punjab from impending desertification. The water stress must be reduced as
the nation’s food security is also at stake.
TTBR (Topics To Be Read) 23 December 2023

In India, what women who run need (Indian

Express)

Some requirements — safe public spaces, well-established training

programmes, and a culture which encourages women to occupy space in
our streets and in our parks

What does it mean to be an Indian woman who is a runner? To earn a living practising
an athletic craft, in a country where simply being outdoors, for most women, is a
deeply circumscribed activity. One regulated by family, society and the law. For that
matter, what does it mean to be a woman who is a runner or a biker or a wrestler or
an athlete or a cricketer? Well, sadly, we now know what it means to be a champion
woman wrestler.
But, let’s come back to my original question: What does it mean to be an Indian woman
who is a runner? The book that I review in this column answers this question. Sohini
Chattopadhyay’s book, The Day I Became a Runner not only answers this question, but
also does much more. While introducing us to some champion women runners and
their life stories, the book also tells you a story about our country. The book, like the
runners it profiles, speedily weaves its way through political happenings over the many
decades since Independence.
Chattopadhyay is a powerful writer, a deep thinker and has a keen eye for detail. Her
book states it is “a women’s history of India through the lens of sport”. In each chapter,
the author profiles a runner and, through research and conversations with most of the
subjects, tells you of their challenges, their hardships and the many obstacles that
were thrown their way; patriarchy, poverty, identity, caste and even testosterone.
The opening chapter is about Chattopadhyay herself who took to running later in life,
and her experiences of being the only woman runner in most parks or roads in various
cities in India. For any woman who has run on roads in India, or the parks in her cities,
her story is a familiar one — of gossipy uncles, walking aunties, many male runners
and being the only woman running along. Of trying to run without being noticed.
TTBR (Topics To Be Read) 23 December 2023

Mary D’Souza, who participated in the Helsinki Olympic Games as a member of the
track team for India, is the first professional runner profiled. She had also represented
India as part of its hockey team. At the age of 82, D’Souza received the Dhyan Chand
Award in 2013 for a lifetime of achievement in hockey. But in 1952, she was the part
of the first set of women who ever represented India at the Olympics. The book then
moves onto Kamaljit Sandhu who won a gold medal for the 400m event at the 1970
Asian Games in Bangkok.
Pilavullakandi Thekkeparambil Usha or simply P T Usha follows Sandhu in the book.
For anyone who grew up in the 1980s like myself, P T Usha was synonymous with
athletic prowess. She was a symbol of possibilities for women and men alike. In 1984,
Usha became the first Indian woman and fourth Indian ever to qualify for an Olympic
athletics final for an individual event. As we all know, she missed the bronze in the
400m hurdles by one-hundredth of a second. She was an extraordinary athlete,
winning four gold medals in the 1986 Seoul Asian Games and five gold medals in the
Asian Championships in Jakarta. As Chattopadhyay tells the story of Usha’s life,
sporting trials and victories, based on conversations with her, she weaves in
contemporary political moments from India.
Santhi Soundarajan — to whom the book is dedicated — follows Usha. She won a silver
medal at the Doha Asian Games in 2006 for the 800 metres run. Soundarajan was
stripped of the medal for allegedly failing a so-called “sex test” or a test checking a set
of biological parameters set out by the World Athletics to define a woman at a given
time. At the time, the Indian government, instead of challenging the test and its
findings, seemingly gave up on Soundarajan. Pinki Pramanik’s story follows
Soundarajan, also one that necessitated a “sex test”, although of the kind used in
criminal law.
Times have fortunately changed as the government supported and challenged the
findings of the “sex test” when it was conducted on Dutee Chand in 2014. Chand and
the government won their case at the Court of Arbitration for Sport in Lausanne,
Switzerland. As the author writes, “The landmark verdict underlined that the World
Athletics rules for female athletes discriminated against women by setting a threshold
for testosterone.” The book notes that quite apart from being a stellar athlete, Chand
had also been brave in coming out as queer.
Lalita Babar, who qualified and ran in the finals of the 3,000m steeplechase event at
the 2016 Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, has a chapter devoted to her. It was in these
Games that Sakshi Malik, the champion wrestler, won a bronze for India in the 58 Kg
category. The Sunrise Project, a training programme for long distance running started
in 2005, and Ila Mitra, a communist activist, politician, and star track athlete in the
1930s, are written up in the book.
TTBR (Topics To Be Read) 23 December 2023

Chattopadhyay’s book is both gripping and tough — gripping, so you don’t want to put
it down, and tough, since the lives written up have been hard ones. There is no fairy-
tale running story. And the training programme is not what makes these lives harsh.
It’s the many obstacles that these women must clear to simply do what they love —
to run.
To be a woman runner in India means to be someone who will persevere in the face
of tremendous odds. Running is that seemingly effortless, low-cost sport which, in fact,
needs the most investment. Running requires safe public spaces, well-established
training programmes, and a culture which encourages women to occupy space in our
streets and in our parks. Meanwhile, as the year comes to an end, I wish you, dear
reader, the season’s greetings and a very happy new year.
The writer Menaka Guruswamy is a Senior Advocate at the Supreme Court

The regulator’s challenge in the age of AI (Indian

Express)

As a variety of professions adopt AI, regulatory agencies must be

nimble. They need to be provided with skills to keep in step with the
fast-changing technology

The past couple of months have seen a flurry of activity related to the regulation of
artificial intelligence. The US White House issued an executive order for the regulation
of AI, the European Parliament and the European Council have agreed on a legislation
to regulate AI, the UK hosted a summit on AI safety that resulted in the Bletchley
Declaration, and at the GPAI summit in Delhi this week, participating countries agreed
to create a global framework on AI trust and safety, among other things.
This wave of high level discussions will soon begin to highlight the downstream
challenge — the urgent need for regulatory skill-building in the digital age. This is the
TTBR (Topics To Be Read) 23 December 2023

problem of being able to develop capabilities at roughly the same pace as the pace of
new risks emanating from new technology. While governments, as a whole, have a
role in confronting the nascent challenges being thrown up, the specific arms of
governments, regulatory agencies, will be at the forefront dealing with this issue.
This piece discusses the need to rethink regulatory capabilities given the potentially
transformative impact of AI in sectors like banking, telecommunications, and
insurance. Regardless of whether AI has the potential to be self-sustaining in the
future, two consequences of the deployment of generative AI products have already
become apparent. The first is the vast scope of use for the technology. The second is
the rapid improvement in the quality of services on offer. ChatGPT is a whole lot better
than it was on the day it was launched. This in turn means that the potential for
adoption across the economy becomes even stronger.
The Economist Intelligence Unit reports that banks and credit card companies have
started using AI for fraud detection, risk assessment and digital marketing. E-
commerce companies are using AI to predict credit risk and personalise services. The
Indian insurance industry now uses AI for risk-management. Similar uses are being
adopted in other parts of the economy. While these are examples of limited use, AI
usage may become much more prevalent soon as the technology improves and people
start understanding how to use the technology better.
The Reserve Bank of India and the Securities and Exchange Board of India have both
recently begun to develop AI tools for regulatory supervision. Since 2019, SEBI has
required mutual funds to disclose the use of AI in their product offerings and product
managements. However, they and other regulators will need to do much more to
prepare for potentially transformative changes.
AI may also alter professional practices and norms. The use of AI for book-keeping and
accounting practices will potentially change the way a chartered accountant and an
auditor works. Similarly, AI-drafted contracts will reshape the work of corporate
lawyers. These changes may be slow at first, but will soon reach an inflection point.
With the change in the way the professions work, the role of professional bodies in
charge of maintaining the integrity of professional norms and practices is also likely to
undergo a change.
Governments and regulators in some countries have so far implemented nascent
regulatory frameworks for the use of AI. While these and other frameworks focus on
the substance of AI regulation, regulatory agencies that have to implement these
frameworks have to build the capabilities to implement them.
These capabilities are not easy to build in-house. Regulatory agencies will have to be
nimble and proactive in order to acquire the necessary skills. The RBI for example,
reportedly, has entered into a contract with McKinsey and Accenture to provide
TTBR (Topics To Be Read) 23 December 2023

advanced analytics to help it discharge its supervisory functions. Even if regulators are
able to hire external firms and experts with the necessary skills, they will have to
develop the capabilities to evaluate the inputs from these external resources.
For example, some regulators globally have begun exploring the concept of
algorithmic auditing. Algorithmic auditing is the audit of each part of a model’s
lifecycle to gain a better understanding of how the model works, and whether its use
leads to potentially problematic outcomes. However, in order to make use of this
practice, regulators will have to develop the capability to understand algorithmic
auditing. Similarly, disclosure related requirements will only be useful if regulators
know how to evaluate the information being reported.
While market dynamics and consumer preferences may naturally mitigate AI’s rapid
adoption, this underscores rather than diminishes the necessity for regulation.
Effective regulation can facilitate market acceptance of AI products and services.
Relying solely on private sector incentives for regulation, particularly in specific parts
of critical sectors like banking and insurance,
will be inadequate.
The important question is not whether this capability should be developed, but how it
can be developed at the scale of the Indian state and at speed. In the absence of a
central coordinating function, the development of such capabilities will be uneven and
ad-hoc. Enterprising regulators will devise mechanisms to rely on the expertise
available in the private sector. This is, however, not a sustainable strategy in the long-
term. Relying on outside expertise for the discharge of core regulatory functions can
become problematic over a period of time.
Therefore, building these capabilities on a systemic scale will require deep thinking.
The Indian state has managed to transition from an analog state to a significantly
digital one over the last two decades. However, there is no significant body of
knowledge that explains how this transition was achieved, that can in turn be
replicated to build a new set of capabilities. In the absence of this body of knowledge,
the central government must take on the mantle of understanding how to build this
capability across government. The main challenge in AI regulation therefore seems to
be to develop the capability to develop capabilities.
The writer Anirudh Burman is associate research director at Carnegie India. Views
are personal
TTBR (Topics To Be Read) 23 December 2023

Awards for words: On the Sahitya Akademi

awards (The Hindu)

The Sahitya Akademi must do more to promote Indian literature

Literary borders should be porous and the Sahitya Akademi awards, which have been
honouring writers of 24 Indian languages down the years, should be seen in that light.
This year the Akademi has picked nine books of poems, six novels, five short stories,
three essays and one literary study in Dogri, Gujarati, Kashmiri, Manipuri, Odia,
Punjabi, Rajasthani, Sanskrit, Sindhi, Assamese, Bodo, Bengali, Telugu, Malayalam,
Kannada, Santali and others. It is a prize to be welcomed just for the sheer linguistic
diversity it acknowledges in a country where there is a change in dialect every few
square kilometres, and no dearth of marginalised communities or languages facing
extinction. The possibilities are immense: in a country where not everyone has the
ability to whip up a PR frenzy, a Sahitya Akademi award is encouragement to keep
pursuing the craft; writers can expect to see a rise in sales and be taught in schools
and universities; and readers can hope to discover some hidden gems. Writers also
have the opportunity to be translated into other regional languages, and into English
too. Neelum Saran Gour, who has won this year for her English novel, Requiem in Raga
Janki, which had also bagged The Hindu Fiction Prize in 2018, can look forward to her
story being translated into other Indian languages.
However, it is a pity that the Sahitya Akademi awards, first conferred in 1955, do not
have top-of-the-mind recall such as the Booker Prize or the Pulitzer. The National
Academy of Letters was established in 1954 and its stated goal was to be “the central
institution for literary dialogue, publication and promotion in the country and the only
institution that undertakes literary activities in 24 Indian languages, including English”.
To that end, the Sahitya Akademi does hold lectures, readings, discussions, exchange
programmes, and workshops, including all communities, but it is so woefully promoted
that few get to know of the programmes. Though the Sahitya Akademi award is the
pinnacle, there are other awards such as the Bal Sahitya award, the Yuva Puraskar and
TTBR (Topics To Be Read) 23 December 2023

the Bhasha Samman or translation prize. But not enough is being done to promote its
activities. The Akademi’s website is not updated and is bristling with grammatical
errors; its social media presence is abysmal. It has brought out thousands of books,
but the fact is that the publications, though affordable, are hard to come by. At a time
when children particularly are glued to screens and losing their reading habits, the
Sahitya Akademi with its extensive network should do more to spread the word about
India’s rich literary tradition.

Israel is fighting in the dark in Gaza (The Hindu)

Israel’s main narrative is that Hamas is like the Islamic State, but this
sweeping claim overlooks some fundamental complexities in West Asia

“The Jewish state would form a part of a wall of defence for Europe in Asia, an outpost
of civilisation against barbarism,” Theodor Herzl, one of the founders of modern
political Zionism, wrote in Der Judenstaat (The Jewish State), a pamphlet published in
1896. In the pamphlet, he argued that security for Jews could be guaranteed only by
the creation of a separate national state for them, and requested the Ottoman Sultan
to give Palestine to the Jews. He promised, in return, to undertake the regulations of
the whole of Turkey’s finances. The movement Herzl began culminated in the creation
of the state of Israel in historical Palestine in 1948. More than 75 years later, the
civilisational outpost Herzl had imagined, which continues its illegal occupation of
Palestinian territories, is fighting a calamitous war on the Gaza Strip.
In just 10 weeks, Israel, which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu calls the “people
of light”, has killed 20,000 Palestinians, a vast majority of them women and children,
wounded over 50,000 and displaced almost 90% of the enclave’s population. While
Israel has managed to turn Gaza into what the United Nations called a “graveyard for
children and a living hell for everyone else”, it also faces questions on whether it is
meeting its objectives after two and a half months of bombing and invasion.
TTBR (Topics To Be Read) 23 December 2023

Israel’s objectives
Israel had two declared objectives when it launched the attack on Gaza, which
followed Hamas’s October 7 cross-border raid in which at least 1,200 Israelis were
killed, most of them civilians. One was to free the hostages — Hamas had taken some
240 hostages during its raid. And the other, as repeatedly claimed by Mr. Netanyahu
and his Ministers, was to “dismantle” Hamas. A third, undeclared, but self-evident,
objective was to rebuild Israel’s deterrence so that another October 7 would not
happen.
On paper these were achievable goals. In terms of military capabilities, Hamas does
not stand even for a distant comparison with Israel, West Asia’s most powerful
country. A nuclear power and a developed economy, which is politically and militarily
backed by the United States, Israel, equipped with some of the world’s most advanced
offensive and defensive weapons, had taken quick victories in the past against its
conventional rivals. Israel also controls all of Gaza’s border except the Rafah crossing
in the south into Egypt. Hamas, on the other side, has roughly 50,000 fighters with
assault rifles and short- to medium-range rockets. Unsurprisingly, Israel has showered
fire and fury on Gaza. But is it close to dismantling Hamas?
Before the war began, Israel had said Hamas leaders in Gaza, especially Yahya Sinwar
and Mohamed Deif, were dead men walking. Apparently, they are still walking. So far,
Israel has managed to free only one hostage through its military operation (it shot
dead three hostages by mistake). The over 100 hostages who were released were part
of a brief ceasefire deal that Israel had struck with Hamas. When Israel launched its
ground invasion, its initial thrust was into northern Gaza, which pushed over one
million people towards the south. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) claimed that the Al
Shifa hospital, Gaza’s largest medical facility, in the north, had hosted a top Hamas
command centre in underground bunkers. The IDF stormed the hospital in November
despite a global uproar, but is yet to show any evidence that Hamas’s top command
was based in the hospital.
Asymmetric wars
While Israel has an excellent track record against its conventional rivals in the region,
its record against non-state actors has always been mixed. Israel has not fought a
conventional war in 50 years. In 1982, when it invaded Lebanon to push the Palestine
Liberation Organization (PLO) out of the country, Israeli Prime Minister Menachem
Begin said the war would bring “40 years of peace”. But the war itself lasted 18 years,
even after Israel pushed the PLO out of Lebanon. In 2006, it invaded Lebanon again,
this time to crush Hezbollah. After a month of intense ground battle, Israel had to
accept a ceasefire, leaving Hezbollah politically stronger. Ever since, Hezbollah has
rebuilt its military strength many times. After it withdrew from Gaza in 2005 following
TTBR (Topics To Be Read) 23 December 2023

the second intifada, Israel carried out at least four major bombing campaigns in the
enclave, barring the current war, aimed at weakening Hamas, Still, it could not prevent
the October 7 attack, the deadliest cross-border attack since 1948.
In the current war, Israel’s main narrative is that Hamas is like the Islamic State (IS).
Just as the physical structures of the IS was destroyed, Israel wants Hamas to be
destroyed as well. But this sweeping narrative overlooks some fundamental
complexities in West Asia. The IS, essentially an Islamist death cult, was an outgrowth
of al-Qaeda which exploited the chaos and mayhem in the region to capture territories
and spread terror. The IS, which imposed itself on the peoples of Syria and Iraq from
the top, was extremely unpopular and lacked any social or political cause. A vast
majority of the IS’s victims were Muslims and Muslim armies, be it the Kurds, Syrian
troops, Iran-backed Shia militias or the Iraqi army, were in the forefront of the battle
against the IS.
But in the case of Israel-Palestine, the fundamental contradiction is Israel’s continuing
occupation of the Palestinian territories. Hamas might be a terrorist outfit for Israel
and its western allies, but for a vast majority of other regional actors, it is fighting
Israel’s violent occupation. Hamas has a social and political cause — the liberation of
Palestine — and is deeply entrenched in Palestinian society. This makes it extremely
difficult, if not impossible, to dismantle Hamas through military means, at least as long
as Israel continues the occupation of Palestinian territories.
Hamas’s goals
This time, Hamas appears to be more prepared and planned for a long resistance
against the Israelis. Its strategy is to deny Israel a quick military victory — or just to
survive — which it thinks would be politically self beneficial. A long war would expose
Israel’s weaknesses, which it already does. Israel has mobilised some 3,00,000
reservists, which is adding stress to its economy. Hamas, which uses Gaza’s extensive
tunnel networks to hide and fight, continues to fire rockets into Israel, terrorising
communities and disrupting local economies. The high civilian casualties and the sheer
brutality of Israel’s offensive in Gaza have isolated the Jewish state globally. The U.S.
still stands with Israel, but recent remarks by U.S. President Joe Biden that Israel’s
“indiscriminate bombing” would isolate it globally suggests that even Washington is
coming under pressure. The Arab-Israel normalisation, on which Mr. Biden was betting
big until recently, is dead, at least for now. And the Houthis, the pro-Iran Shia rebels
who control much of Yemen, are widening the war by targeting tankers in the Red Sea,
threatening one of the busiest global shipping lanes and drawing the U.S. deeper into
the conflict. West Asia is now a tinderbox.
If Israel’s objective is to kill as many Palestinians as possible and turn Gaza inhabitable
without caring for the consequences, its invasion is on track. But if its objective is to
TTBR (Topics To Be Read) 23 December 2023

eradicate Hamas, free hostages and bolster its own deterrence, the Jewish state is
nowhere close to meeting those goals, even after 10 weeks of one of the most intense
bombing campaigns of the century.

Tax ‘HFSS’ foods, view it as a public health

imperative (The Hindu)

Combined with nutrition literacy and effective food labelling, tax on

High-Fat Sugar Salt (HFSS) foods can help improve health outcomes

The consumption of High Fat Sugar Salt (HFSS) foods is one of the major risk factors to
a host of health issues that include obesity, diabetes and high blood pressure.
According to a World Bank report of 2019, worldwide, 70% of all overweight and obese
people live in Low- and Middle-Income Countries, with a 55% rise in rural areas across
the globe, dispelling the perception that overweight/obesity is only a problem in high-
income countries and urban and affluent communities. The Non-Communicable
Diseases (NCDs) burden in India has skyrocketed from 38% in 1990 to 65% in 2019. The
global burden of diseases study shows that annually, 1.2 million deaths in India can be
attributed to dietary risks alone. The economic impact of overweight and obesity in
India was estimated at $23 billion in 2017. If unattended, this is likely to rise to $480
billion by 2060.
India’s shift in dietary habits
The ultra-processed food sector in India witnessed a compounded annual growth rate
of 13.4% between 2011 and 2021. As the world’s largest producer and consumer of
sugar in 2022, the country has seen an alarming surge in consumption of HFSS foods.
About 50%-60% of edible sugar, salt and fat produced in India is consumed by the
TTBR (Topics To Be Read) 23 December 2023

processed food industry. Sales of snacks and soft drinks have tripled over the past
decade, exceeding $30 billion last year, indicating a disturbing trend in dietary habits.
This not only poses severe health risks but also impacts productivity and economic
growth, necessitating urgent interventions to curtail the rising consumption of these
products.
There is a global trend of utilising fiscal measures to combat obesity. Taxation is
considered to be an effective means to reduce the consumption of these products as
most consumers are price responsive towards them. While taxation on sugar-
sweetened beverages (SSBs) is far more wide and used in more than 60 countries,
taxation on HFSS food is less common, although rapidly increasing. Some 16 countries
including Denmark, France, Hungary, Mexico, South Africa, the United Kingdom and
the United States, among others, now have a dedicated tax on HFSS foods. Most
recently, Colombia’s “junk food law” introduced a gradually increasing levy on ultra-
processed foods, providing a model for other nations. In India, Kerala had also
introduced a ‘fat tax’ way back in 2016, which later got subsumed into India’s Goods
and Services Tax in 2017.
Case for high HFSS tax
The imperative for taxing HFSS arises from significant market failures associated with
their consumption, contributing to negative externalities and internalities. Negative
externalities manifest as societal costs in the form of increased health-care
expenditures. For example, the escalation of diabetes and obesity due to increased
HFSS consumption leads to external costs imposed on society, necessitating
substantial health-care expenditures, borne through elevated taxes to finance public
health insurance such as the Ayushman Bharat Yojana. Meanwhile, internalities,
stemming from consumers’ limited understanding, influenced by aggressive
marketing, result in inadvertent harm to themselves. Taxes can offer a targeted and
effective means to curb detrimental consumption habits, thereby reducing societal
burdens. Implementing such taxes has shown promise in various countries,
demonstrating a reduction in the purchase of unhealthy items.
Unlike the taxation of other sin goods such as tobacco and alcohol, the HFSS taxation
need not be viewed as a means for raising revenue, but should be seen as a fiscal tool
to incentivise the industry to reformulate the products more in favour of healthier
alternatives and for people to reorganise their food consumption basket in favour of
a healthier diet. If properly designed, HFSS food tax can be both non-regressive, and
fiscally neutral. A recent study on South Africa’s Health Promotion Levy showed that
there were larger relative reductions in purchases of taxable beverages among lower
socio-economic status (SES) households compared with reductions observed in higher
SES households, making such taxes non-regressive. Tax rates need to be differentiated
TTBR (Topics To Be Read) 23 December 2023

based on the nutritional quality of the food so as to incentivise product reformulations.

For example, it is possible to have a GST system with HFSS foods in the highest rate
structure while their healthier alternatives have either zero or minimal tax rates so
that the net tax burden on a household’s food consumption basket remains the same.
This would create a level-playing field between HFSS and their healthier alternatives,
making healthier food choices more affordable and accessible.
GST and nutritional content
Current GST rates on ultra-processed foods, such as salty snacks and SSBs, do not
adequately align with nutritional content. For example, tax on SSBs with a 28% GST
rate and 12% compensation cess, overlooks sugar content. All aerated beverages are
taxed uniformly as well. Similarly, juices face a flat 12% rate, irrespective of their fruit
and sugar content. Salty snacks are taxed at 12% regardless of their salt content. Such
inconsistencies fail to consider the varying nutritional impact of these products and
hence show limited impact on altering consumption baskets in favour healthier
alternatives.
HFSS taxation in India should not be merely seen as an economic or fiscal policy
concern but it deserves to be considered a public health imperative. Effectively
designed taxes can reap multiple benefits — they can act as a deterrent to consuming
HFSS; promote healthier food choices; prompt manufacturers to reformulate foods;
improve public health outcomes; reduce the burden on the health-care system, and
foster the nation’s well-being. When combined with other measures such as
promotion of nutrition literacy and effective food labelling, it can be a more potent
tool to combat the rising epidemic of overweight and obesity by creating a more
sustainable and equitable food system.
Rijo M. John is an Adjunct Professor at the Rajagiri College of Social Sciences, Kochi,
Kerala. SubbaRao M. Gavaravarapu is Scientist F and Head, Nutrition Information,
Communication and Health Education (NICHE) Division, Indian Council of Medical
Research (ICMR)-National Institute of Nutrition, Hyderabad. The views expressed are
personal
TTBR (Topics To Be Read) 23 December 2023

Reserve Bank of India: A sledgehammer

approach (Financial Express)

RBI’s crackdown on AIFs is well-intentioned, but the practicability of the

extreme move is debatable

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) decision to come down heavily on banks and non-
banking finance companies (NBFCs) to curb “evergreening” of loans is full of good
intentions. Per its latest circular, a regulated entity will not be allowed to invest in the
schemes of any Alternative Investment Fund (AIF) that has invested in a borrower or
investee of that lender. A debtor or a borrower would mean a company to which the
lender currently has, or previously had, a loan or investment exposure anytime in the
previous 12 months. The RBI said that entities regulated by the central bank invest in
units of AIFs as part of their regular investment operations, but certain transactions
have raised regulatory concerns, necessitating the move.
Under the arrangement, some of the regulated entities invest in an AIF, which in turn
routes the money to the borrower so that the latter can repay the loan or a portion of
it to the regulated entity. As a result, a loan does not turn into a non-performing asset,
which helps the borrower retain creditworthiness. The bank too is able to show a low
NPA ratio. To be sure, the RBI isn’t the only regulator to red-flag such evergreening
practices.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India had also released a consultation paper in
May this year, saying that such schemes could help hide stressed loan books, through
tranching of securities that leads to a lack of transparency for investors, much like the
tranching of collateralised debt obligations (CDOs) did during the 2008 financial crisis.
Sebi had also asked the AIFs to stop the ‘junior-senior’ structures. Both the regulators
have been investigating quite a few cases of AIFs allegedly being used to circumvent
regulations. The sums at stake are unknown but Sebi’s investigation throws up a
ballpark figure of well over Rs20,000 crore.
TTBR (Topics To Be Read) 23 December 2023

Thus, the concerns of the RBI aren’t unfounded. The question is whether a
sledgehammer approach was the solution. The directives—covering all kinds of AIFs
with retrospective effect impacting existing exposures—will hurt many lenders, which
had put money in AIFs as part of asset diversification, better returns, etc. The industry
is justifiably concerned about institutions with existing lending relationships with
investee portfolio entities facing a tight 30-day timeline to liquidate investments,
failing which they must provision 100% for such investments. The practicality of the
move is also questionable. Industry experts cite the absence of an active secondary
market in India for AIF units. The challenge lies in selling AIF units, given that they are
not listed, and there is no readily available market for offloading such investments.
The circular even discourages regulated entities from investing in AIFs, even for
legitimate reasons such as risk diversification. Unless these measures are further
calibrated, they could serve as significant barriers for lenders to participate in AIFs.
An unintended consequence of this regulatory measure would be that the flow of bank
money into domestic AIFs could completely freeze for a time, till the matter is fully
resolved. After all, domestic venture and private equity AIFs get 5-10% of the money
from banks, and these monies are invested in companies who in turn, could borrow
from the very same bank. While Sebi was looking at a more targeted approach, going
only after the bad and not the good guys, the RBI has taken a more extreme step.

Economists as detectives: Claudia Goldin tells us

how economists unearth knowledge from data
(Financial Express)

The difference between the actual “economist detective” and the

fictional Henry Spearman is clear.
TTBR (Topics To Be Read) 23 December 2023

Recently, I got interested in a quartet of detective novels jointly written by two

American economics professors between 1978 and 2016 under the pseudonym
Marshall Jevons. Henry Spearman, their amateur detective, is a Harvard professor and
a Nobel laureate economist. In the novels, Spearman, clearly modelled after legendary
economist Milton Friedman, uses microeconomic frameworks to solve the mysteries
by assuming that humans frequently act irrationally and make mistakes.
In contrast, we now have a real-life Nobel Prize-winning economist from Harvard who,
in a 1998 paper titled The Economist as Detective, claimed that she had “always
wanted to be a detective and have finally succeeded.” She is Claudia Goldin, an
American labour economist and economic historian who has just been awarded the
2023 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for “having advanced our
understanding of women’s labour market outcomes.”
Can an economist (or statistician) who works with data be related to a detective due
to her pursuit of extracting the truth hidden therein? I studied the Goldin essay from
1998 to learn how she relates to the role of a “detective.” In fact, her Nobel-winning
research involved collecting and processing tonnes of data in an effort to discover the
“truth” about the female labour force from 1790 to the present. “I heard the clarion
call for the economist detective,” she said.
The difference between the actual “economist detective” and the fictional Henry
Spearman is clear. While Goldin theorises by using data insight, which is much more
challenging, Spearman uses conventional theories to unravel the mysteries.
In her 1998 essay, Goldin wrote: “I recall the precise moment when I switched my
attention to the evolution of the female labor force. I had few ideas about the location
of evidence; fewer still on what the evolution was. But I knew it would be a story of
importance, relevant to the current period, and a project for which my detective work
would pay off. I also knew that I was the one to do it.” But does an “economist
detective” just adopt Joe Friday’s style, which was to always seek the “facts,” or
Sherlock Holmes’, which was to pursue theorising with the “facts”? Actually, no. “They
may have been great detectives, but they would have made lousy economists,” Goldin
perceived. An “economics detective” requires math and statistics, and she should have
both theory and evidence to support her findings. “Go back and forth among theory,
empirics, and stories until you iterate on the very best truth you can tell,” Goldin
advises.
Since Adam Smith’s time, economic theories have not always been developed by
sifting through vast amounts of data. Earlier, there was a dearth of data as well.
However, some outstanding contemporary economists might be regarded as
“detectives” in Goldin’s perspective. Amartya Sen used data on famines in Bengal,
Ethiopia, the Sahel, and Bangladesh to conclude that in many cases, social and
TTBR (Topics To Be Read) 23 December 2023

economic factors such as declining wages, unemployment, rising food prices, and poor
food distribution rather than food supplies were what caused starvation among
certain groups in society. Milton Friedman, who won the 1976 Nobel Prize, was
unquestionably an expert in empirical modelling. The 2015 economics Nobel laureate
Angus Deaton measured poverty using tonnes of data, including our NSSO data. Data
insights were frequently a source of inspiration for 2002 economics Nobel laureate
Daniel Kahneman during his research career. Robert Lucas Jr. (1995 Nobel laureate in
economics), Daniel McFadden (2000 Nobel laureate in economics), Richard H. Thaler
(2017 Nobel prize-winner in economics), and Joshua Angrist (2021 economics Nobel-
winner), to name a few, are other renowned “economist detectives” of our time. In
fact, labour economists and behavioural economists are more inclined to base their
theories on empirical insights.
What about statisticians? Incidentally, the American Statistical Association defines
“statistics” as the “science of learning from data.” As a result, a statistician should, by
definition, be a data-detective. In fact, data insights were instrumental for many early
findings in statistics. Francis Galton developed the crucial ideas of regression and
correlation coefficient in the late nineteenth century while analysing data on more
than 10,000 individuals. Under the alias “Student,” William Gosset used data from the
Guinness brewery to introduce the Student’s t-distribution in the early 1900s. A
thorough examination of anthropometric data helped PC Mahalanobis develop his
renowned D-squared statistic. And many more examples are there. Legendary
statisticians like Karl Pearson and Ronald Fisher also used data insights to develop their
ideas. Well, were they “statistician detectives”?
Statistics, the subject, has undergone significant change over time. The discipline of
data science, however, has emerged within the last few decades, ostensibly to
comprehend the pulse of data. The demand for data scientists has undoubtedly been
boosted by the ever-expanding data universe and the digital and AI revolutions.
However, data science frequently appears to be just a brutal tool for slicing and dicing
through vast amounts of data with already accessible statistical and computational
techniques.
What about science, in general? We know that scientists like Charles Darwin and
Gregor Mendel meticulously collected data and developed their theories and laws
using empirical evidence. So, historically, science has been data-driven when a
“scientist detective” has used relevant scientific expertise to extract knowledge from
data. Overall, there are some Sherlock Holmeses in the fields of statistics, economics,
and science in general. Claudia Goldin aided in our comprehension of that.
Atanu Biswas, professor of statistics, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata. Views are
personal.
TTBR (Topics To Be Read) 23 December 2023

Why tar all foreign universities with the same

brush? (Business Line)

The UGC should instead give automatic approval for recognised foreign
institutes that offer specialised courses

The University Grants Commission (UGC) has stirred a serious debate within India’s
higher education landscape. It has reiterated, through circular dated December 12,
that no foreign higher educational institution (FHEI) can offer any programme in India
without the prior approval of the Commission.
The UGC circular also takes aim at EdTech companies that have been advertising
degree and diploma programmes in association with foreign universities/institutions.
Such arrangements, termed “franchisee arrangements”, are deemed impermissible
under the new regulations, and any programme or degree offered through them will
not have UGC recognition. The UGC has pledged to act against defaulting EdTech
companies and HEIs under applicable laws and regulations.
Indian educational institutions have always been criticised for their slow response in
developing market-driven curricula. For instance, it’s surprising that not even a
handful of colleges or higher schools offer full-degree programmes in cutting-edge
fields like artificial intelligence (AI), data analytics, cloud computing, or even in latest
advancements like GPT technology. Meanwhile, several global universities have taken
the lead in developing both short and elaborate courses in these domains. The country
even lags in offering simple, full-degree programmes or courses in foreign languages.
This leaves students with limited options to explore and excel in languages beyond
their native tongues, restricting their potential for global communication and
opportunities.
Crucial regulations
In its quest to encourage collaborations with FHEIs, the UGC recently issued two crucial
regulations: the University Grants Commission (Academic Collaboration between
Indian and Foreign Higher Education Institutions to offer Twinning Programme, Joint
TTBR (Topics To Be Read) 23 December 2023

Degree, Dual Degree Programmes) Regulations, 2022, and the University Grants
Commission (Setting up and Operation of Campuses of Foreign Higher Educational
Institutions in India) Regulations, 2023. These regulations mandate prior approval of
the UGC before offering any programme in India.
While there is no doubt that regulations are necessary to stop the misuse of
educational collaborations, an outright ban on all collaborations with foreign
universities/colleges may not be the correct approach. Instead, a more balanced
strategy could be adopted, on the lines of how FDI is allowed under the FDI policy,
namely (a) automatic route, and (b) approval route. Also, the question is do we have
the bandwidth to meaningfully scrutinise hundreds of such applications?
Automatic route for recognised FHEIs: The UGC could allow FHEIs recognised in their
home country to collaborate with Indian institutes/ universities/colleges under
automatic route. The least UGC could do is to allow on automatic basis certain select
degree courses — in highly technical subjects, for instance — that clearly need support
from FHEIs. This approach will promote genuine international partnerships and
encourage Indian students to access high-quality global education.
Scrutiny for non-recognised institutions: However, FHEIs not recognised in their home
country should undergo a rigorous scrutiny process to obtain approval from the UGC.
This scrutiny should focus on verifying their credentials, educational quality, and
commitment to ethical practices.
In its pursuit of ensuring the authenticity of educational programmes and degrees in
India, the UGC’s latest two regulations are a commendable step. We have shown our
commitment to align our education with international education, however, we cannot
afford to create another maze of red tape. We need to welcome recognised FHEIs and
scrutinise those that lack any recognition, and create a robust and genuine
international education ecosystem. This approach will not only protect students but
also allow them to access world-class education, aligning with the evolving needs of
the job market and fostering global competitiveness..
We’re already late on the journey to catch up with the rest of the world and equip our
youth with the best knowledge and skills.
The writer NITIN POTDAR is Corporate Partner, J Sagar Associates. Views are
personal
TTBR (Topics To Be Read) 23 December 2023

AI regulation needs to get serious and global

(Business Line)

While healthy competition can drive innovation, an unregulated race

can lead to a fragmented landscape where standards, ethics, and
accountability are overlooked

The recently concluded Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence (GPAI) summit in

Delhi marked a significant milestone. The meet — attended by representatives from
diverse nations, industry leaders, and experts — recognised the importance of
establishing ethical guidelines and standards for AI technologies. It also rightly stressed
the need for international collaboration in navigating the evolving landscape of
artificial intelligence.
It is clear that there is a global race for AI dominance. Nations across the world are
investing heavily in AI research, development, and deployment. While healthy
competition can drive innovation, an unregulated race can lead to a fragmented
landscape where standards, ethics, and accountability are overlooked. In this race,
countries may prioritise advancements without considering the potential risks and
societal impact. To prevent a dystopian future and ensure a collaborative approach, it
is essential to establish international agreements and standards for AI development
and use. The summit participants agreed that AI systems should be developed in a
manner that upholds human rights, fairness, and accountability.
Recent global initiatives have taken significant steps towards establishing a regulatory
framework that balances innovation with ethical considerations. Notable among these
initiatives are the Bletchley Declaration, the US White House Executive Order, and the
legislative efforts by the European Parliament and Council. There are many initiatives
being undertaken by private players to put in place a framework to limit the negative
impact of AI. For example, tech giants including Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Google and
OpenAI have signed a voluntary agreement to emphasise safety, security and trust
TTBR (Topics To Be Read) 23 December 2023

when developing AI technologies. In India, industry body Nasscom has come out with
a framework listing out the obligations of all stakeholders in the development of AI.
But the biggest challenge is that no one knows for certain what’s going to happen next
with AI. This technology is evolving so fast that stakeholders are falling behind
miserably when it comes to putting safeguards. Therefore, it is essential to recognise
that the success of these regulatory efforts hinges on their implementation.
International cooperation that prevents regulatory fragmentation and ensures a level
playing field for AI developers and users worldwide is crucial. The global community
has acknowledged the need to bridge the digital divide. Recognising the potential for
AI to exacerbate existing inequalities, participants committed to promoting diversity
in AI research and development, as well as addressing the socio-economic impacts of
automation. Implementing the principles and agreements reached at the summit will
require sustained effort and coordination among participating nations. The global
community must remain vigilant in monitoring developments in AI and adapting
regulatory frameworks to address emerging challenges. The GPAI summit has laid the
groundwork for a collaborative approach.