 Conditional Probability

 In the formula for the multiplication rule for dependent events, the
probability of event B occurring given that event A has occurred is the
conditional probability

 Conditional Probability Formula

𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 and 𝐵𝐵)
𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵|𝐴𝐴) =
𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴)

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 Example 2 : Given the following table
Conservative Liberal New Democrat
Female 5 10 13
Male 15 10 7
 Find the probability of selecting a male (M) given that the individual is
a Conservative (C).
15 15
P( M and C )
P( M | C ) = = 60 = = 0.75
P(C ) 20 20
60
 Find the probability of selecting a Conservative (C) given that the
individual is male (M)
15 15
P(C and M )
P(C | M ) = = 60 = ≈ 0.469
P( M ) 32
60 32
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 The multiplication rule can be used with the complementary event
rule to solve probability problems involving “at least”.

 Example : A password consisting of 3 different digits is generated

randomly. Find the probability that the password includes at least
one digit ≥ 7.
 𝐸𝐸 = the password includes at least one of the digits 7, 8, or 9
 E = all digits in the password are among 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6

7 6 5
̄ = 𝑃𝑃(all digits between 0 and 6) =
𝑃𝑃(𝐸𝐸) ⋅ ⋅ ≈ 0.292
10 9 8
̄ ≈ 1 − 0.292 = 0.708
𝑃𝑃(𝐸𝐸) = 𝑃𝑃(at least one digit ≥ 7) = 1 − 𝑃𝑃(𝐸𝐸)

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Engineering applications

1. The probability that a signal is received correctly at a station is 0.99. Given that it is
received correctly, the probability that a signal is transmitted correctly by the station is
0.98. Find the probability that a signal is received correctly and transmitted correctly by
the station.
2. 8% of the items produced at a factory are defective. 70% of the defective items are
detected by the quality control officer and do not reach the market. All other items
(defective or not) reach the market. Find the probability that…
a) An item is defective and reaches the market.
b) An item reaches the market.
c) An item is defective, given that it reaches the market.

1. 0.9702
2. a) 0.024 b) 0.944 c) 0.02542
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 Male Female Totals
Officer 𝟓𝟓𝟓𝟓. 𝟑𝟑𝟑𝟑𝟑𝟑𝟑 7.656% 𝟔𝟔𝟔𝟔𝟔
Civilian 13.362% 𝟐𝟐𝟐𝟐. 𝟔𝟔𝟔𝟔𝟔𝟔𝟔 34%
Totals 71.706% 28.294% 𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏

© 2011 McGraw-Hill Ryerson, Limited 4-31

Exercise. A password consisting of 4 different characters is randomly
generated. The characters are taken among the small letters (a to z), capital
letters (A to Z), and digits (0 to 9). Find these probabilities.

a. All characters are vowels.

b. All characters are small letters.
c. All characters are letters.

10 9 8 7 42
a. ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ = ≈ 0.00038
62 61 60 59 111,569
26 25 24 23 2990
b. ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ = ≈ 0.02680
62 61 60 59 111,569
52 51 50 49 54,145
c. ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ = ≈ 0.48531
62 61 60 59 111,569

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