SINDH-PAKISTAN IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS

Natural shocks (drought and inadequate rainfall), high food prices, reduced JULY – DECEMBER 2022
employment and income opportunities and livestock diseases/deaths are
driving acute food insecurity in nine districts of Sindh. Published on December 30, 2022

CURRENT ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY PROJECTED ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY

JULY - AUGUST 2022 SEPTEMBER - DECEMBER 2022
Phase 5 0 Phase 5 0
People in Catastrophe People in Catastrophe
3.23M Phase 4 907,000 5.24M Phase 4 1,778,000
30% of the rural People in Emergency 49% of the rural People in Emergency
population analysed in population analysed in
Phase 3 2,320,000 Phase 3 3,466,000
9 rural districts of Sindh 9 rural districts of Sindh
People in Crisis People in Crisis
People facing high Phase 2 3,648,000 People facing high Phase 2 3,173,000
acute food insecurity People Stressed acute food insecurity People Stressed
(IPC Phase 3 or above) (IPC Phase 3 or above)
Phase 1 3,841,000 Phase 1 2,229,000
IN NEED OF URGENT People in food IN NEED OF URGENT People in food
ACTION security ACTION security

Overview
For years, Sindh has been experiencing a high prevalence of food insecurity, malnutrition, poverty, and other natural shocks. In 2022, the food security
situation further deteriorated because of high food and fuel prices, drought, heavy monsoon rains, livestock diseases and reduced employment
opportunities. Around 3.23 million people (30 percent of the rural population analysed) are estimated to be in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or Phase 4 (Emergency)
in the current period (July-August 2022), which corresponds to the kharif crop season/monsoon period. These include around 2.32 million people (22
percent of the rural population) in IPC Phase 3 and around 0.91 million people (8 percent of the rural population) in IPC Phase 4 across the nine districts
analysed. Badin, Sanghar, Tharparkar, Thatta, and Umerkot have 30-40 percent of the population in IPC Phases 3 and 4, whereas Dadu, Jamshoro, Mirpur
Khas and Sujawal have 15-25 percent of the population in this situation. Urgent action is therefore required to protect livelihoods and reduce food
consumption gaps of people in cCrisis and to save lives and livelihoods of people in Emergency.
Out of nine districts analysed, seven districts, namely Badin, Mirpur Khas, Sanghar, Sujawal, Tharparakar, Thatta, and Umerkot were classified in IPC Phase
3 (Crisis), whereas Dadu and Jamshoro were classified in IPC Phase 2 (Stressed) during the current analysis period.
The analysis of the projection period (September-December 2022), which corresponds to the harvesting of Kharif season crops and sowing of Rabi
season crops, indicates that the number of people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) phases is expected to increase to 5.24 million
from 3.23 million. It represents 49 percent of the rural population, and an increase of 2.01 million or 62 percent more people compared to the current
period. Out of nine districts analyzed, four districts, namely Jamshoro, Sujawal, Tharparakar and Thatta, are classified in IPC Phase 3, whereas Badin, Dadu,
Mirpur Khas, Sanghar, and Umerkot are classified in IPC Phase 4. The primary driver for the deterioration in food security was the large-scale flooding
that occurred from July to September 2022, affecting several of the analyzed districts.
The analyzed districts experienced multiple shocks that include high inflation, associated with the country’s internal economic situation and the Russia-
Ukraine crisis, drought/inadequate rainfall/heat wave during the first half of 2022, heavy monsoon rains/flooding since the beginning of July, and
livestock diseases/deaths, which resulted in poor food security outcomes for the current period. The food security situation in the projection period is
likely to deteriorate further due to the devastating impacts of one of the worst monsoon flooding which has damaged the Kharif crops, caused livestock
losses and adversely affected food production, availability of food, and livelihood opportunities. Food access will be challenging because of continuous
increases in food commodity prices and reduced livelihood opportunities post-flooding will likely contribute to higher food insecurity during the
projection period.

Key Drivers Current situation July – Aug 2022 Projected situation Sep - Dec 2022
High food prices
of commodities and high inflation, as a
result of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, other
domestic and international factors and the
2022 flooding, led to low purchasing power
of households.
Reduced employment/income
opportunities
due to drought during the first half of 2022,
floods since July, local conflicts and political
and economic uncertainties.

Drought and flooding

Most districts experienced drought and
unexpected and unusual monsoon rains/
flash flooding.

Livestock diseases/deaths
Limited/unavailability of water, veterinary
services, and declining of pastures/fodder
caused livestock diseases and deaths.
 SINDH - PAKISTAN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS 2

CURRENT ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY SITUATION MAP

1 - Minimal AND POPULATION

TABLE (JULY – AUGUST 2022) 2 - Stressed

3 - Crisis
4 - Emergency

Key for the Map

5 - Famine

IPC Acute
Areas with Food
inadequateInsecurity
evidence
Phase Classification
Areas not analysed
(mapped
Map SymbolsPhase represents highest
severity affecting
Urban settlement at least 20% of the
classification
population)
IDPs/other settlements
1classification
- Minimal
Area receives significant
2 - Stressed
humanitarian food assistance
3 -forCrisis
(accounted in Phase classification)
> 25% of households meet 25-50%
4of -caloric
Emergency
needs through assistance
5>-25%
Famine
of households meet > 50%
of caloric needs through assistance
Areas with inadequate evidence
Evidence Level
Areas not analysed
Acceptable
** *Medium
** Medium
High
***
Map Symbols
Scarce evidence due to limited or
no humanitarian access
Urban settlement
classification
IDPs/other settlements
classification

Area receives significant

humanitarian food assistance
(accounted for in Phase classification)
> 25% of households meet 25-50%
of caloric needs through assistance
> 25% of households meet > 50%
of caloric needs through assistance
Evidence Level
* Acceptable
** Medium
*** High
Scarce evidence due to limited or
no humanitarian access

Population table for the current period: July – August 2022

District Total Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Area Phase 3+

population Phase
analysed* #people % #people % #people % #people % #people % #people %

Badin 1,605,438 481,631 30 481,631 30 401,360 25 240,816 15 0 0 3 642,176 40

Dadu 1,260,395 441,138 35 630,198 50 126,040 10 63,020 5 0 0 2 189,060 15
Jamshoro 596,244 298,122 50 208,685 35 89,437 15 0 0 0 0 2 89,437 15
Mirpur khas 1,217,894 487,158 40 426,263 35 182,684 15 121,789 10 0 0 3 304,473 25
Sanghar 1,660,835 664,334 40 498,251 30 415,209 5 83,042 5 0 0 3 498,251 30
Sujawal 779,720 389,860 50 233,916 30 116,958 15 38,986 5 0 0 3 155,944 20
Tharparkar 1,757,595 527,279 30 527,279 30 527,279 30 175,760 10 0 0 3 703,039 40
Thatta 906,721 272,016 30 362,688 40 181,344 20 90,672 10 0 0 3 272,016 30
Umer Kot 931,066 279,320 30 279,320 30 279,320 30 93,107 10 0 0 3 372,427 40
Total 10,715,908 3,840,858 36 3,648,230 34 2,319,629 22 907,191 8 0 0 3,226,820 30

Note: A population in Phase 3+ does not necessarily reflect the full population in need of urgent action. This is because some households may be in Phase 2 or even 1 but only because of receipt of
assistance, and thus, they may be in need of continued action. Marginal inconsistencies that may arise in the overall percentages of totals and grand totals are attributable to rounding.
 SINDH - PAKISTAN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS 3

CURRENT ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY SITUATION OVERVIEW, KEY DRIVERS

AND LIMITING FACTORS (JULY – AUGUST 2022)

Current Situation Overview

This IPC analysis focuses on the rural population of nine districts of Sindh province, namely, Badin, Dadu, Jamshoro, Mirpur Khas,
Sanghar, Sujawal, Tharparakar, Thatta, and Umerkot. Badin, Sanghar, Tharparkar, and Umerkot districts share a border with India;
Sanghar, Tharparkar, and Umerkot have desert areas, Dadu, Thatta, and Jamshoro have rain-fed areas, whereas Thatta, Badin, and
Sujawal are also coastal districts. Overall, an estimated 2.32 million people are in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and around 0.91 million people
are in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). Furthermore, 3.8 million people are in IPC Phase 2 (Stressed). A total of seven districts are classified in
IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and two districts in IPC Phase 2 (Stressed). Dadu, Jamshoro, Mirpur Khas, and Sujawal have 15-25 percent of their
population in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or above, while Badin, Sanghar, Tharparakar, Thatta, and Umerkot have between 30-40 percent of
their population in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or above.

Hazard and Vulnerability

Around half (47 percent) of the population of Sindh is multidimensionally poor. Overall, more than half (67 percent) of the surveyed
households reported agriculture and livestock-based activities as their primary source of livelihood in the analysed districts during
the household assessment in April 20221. Twenty-three percent reported non-agriculture wage labor, 6 percent are self-employed/
employees/business in the non-agriculture sector, 2 percent have other sources (pension allowance, charity/zakat/gifts, and
remittances) and 1 percent reported having no income source and surviving on debts.
The main shocks affecting the areas have been drought during the first half of 2022, unprecedented 2022 monsoon rains/flooding
since July, a high inflation rate, reduced employment opportunities, reduced crop production, and livestock diseases affecting
purchasing power and access to food. Most of the analyzed districts received 3-4 spells of light to moderate rains in winter, which
helped in reducing the moderate to severe drought conditions that were prevailing in all analyzed districts (except Jamshoro in 2021).
However, already in the second quarter of 2022, mild drought conditions prevailed, affecting food production and pasture conditions.
. As per the “Drought Alert” issued by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) on May 16, 2022, mild drought conditions were
prevailing in all analyzed districts except Jamshoro. From the beginning of July, several spells of heavy monsoon rains/flooding, have
caused human deaths, severe damage to bridges, houses, and crop areas, livestock losses and damage to irrigation infrastructure
including in the analyzed districts. The Government of Sindh has declared 23 districts of Sindh as natural calamity-hit (flood) owing
to the heavy monsoon rainfall and flooding in July-September 2022. Of those 23 districts, eight out of the nine districts covered by
the IPC analysis, namely, Badin, Dadu, Jamshoro, Mirpur Khas, Sanghar, Sujawal, Thatta, and Umerkot are also notified and have been
badly affected by unprecedented monsoon rains/floods, particularly Dadu, Badin, Sanghar, Mirpur Khas and Umerkot districts. As per
the latest statistics issued by the provincial government, overall, 14.5 million people are affected as well as 3.8 million acres of crop
area, 432,000 livestock perished and 21,500 animal shelters were damaged in the flood-affected districts of Sindh.
Furthermore, rural households’ ability to earn income or produce food for self-consumption was affected by much higher than
usual food and fuel prices, sickness or death of a household member/breadwinner, animal diseases, lost employment or work
opportunities, and plant diseases, as reported by surveyed households in the Food Security and Livelihood Assessment (FSLA).
Overall, 58 percent of the surveyed households reported a reduction in their income from their main source of livelihood due to
multiple crises/shocks. Around 85 percent of surveyed farming households faced crop production difficulties. Of those who faced
crop production difficulties, 76 percent reported lack of access to fertilizers, 58 percent reported insufficient irrigation/rainfall water,
24 percent reported plant diseases, 21 percent reported low-quality seeds, 13 percent reported lack of access to fuel or electricity, 11
percent reported lack of access to seeds and 8 percent reported crop damages. Furthermore, 43 percent of the surveyed households
reported their livelihood/income was affected by limited rainfall/drought--7 percent reported being severely affected, 17 percent
reported being moderately affected, 19 percent reported being slightly affected and 57 percent reported not being affected by
limited rainfall/drought.
The overwhelming majority of livestock holders (71 percent) also reported difficulties in livestock production in the past three months
preceding the assessment. The constrained access to pasture, access to veterinary services, purchase of feed (prices or market access),
constrained access to water, livestock diseases or death, and access to veterinary inputs are the major difficulties reported.

1 The household assessment was conducted in collaboration with the Provincial Disaster Management Authorities (PDMAs) of Sindh, Balochistan and Khyber Pakh-
tunkhwa and Food Security and Agriculture Working Group (FSAWG) members (Islamic Relief, Welthungerhilfe, Tameer-e-Khalq Foundation, CESVI and others), by
FAO, in 28 districts of Sindh, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in April 2022.
 SINDH - PAKISTAN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS 4

Availability
Agriculture is one of the most important sources of livelihood for rural households in the analyzed districts. The unprecedented
rains and flash flooding have adversely affected the already limited food production in the flood-affected districts. Due to the
limited availability of water and small landholdings, most farmers are engaged in small-scale subsistence-level crop production. The
distribution of agricultural land ownership shows that 19 percent of households own between one and three acres, 23 percent own
between three and five acres, and 14 percent own more than five acres of agricultural land, while 44 percent of households do not
own any agricultural land. As far as the 2021-22 Rabi season, 1 percent of households cultivated up to one acre of land, 37 percent
cultivated between one and three acres, 33 percent between three and five acres, and 30 percent more than five acres. Regarding
the households’ cereal production during 2021-22, around 39 percent of farming households have stocks lasting six months or more,
29 percent of households for 3-6 months and 16 percent either for 1-3 months or less than one month. The limited stocks of own-
produced cereals make households dependent on markets for their food needs. Although food is generally available in the markets,
access to food is a major problem for households.
The main cereal crops grown in the analyzed areas are: wheat (the major cereal crop grown in all areas in winter (Rabi 2021-22)
season), rice (mainly grown in Badin, Dadu, Thatta, and Sujawal), millet (cultivated mainly in Badin, Jamshoro, Mirpur Khas, Sujawal,
Thatta, and Sanghar), maize (mainly grown in Dadu, Thatta, Sujawal, Sanghar, Jamshoro, and Umerkot), sorghum (cultivated in Badin,
Dadu, Jamshoro, Mirpur Khas and Sanghar). Except for Tharparkar, all districts also produce different varieties of vegetables and fruits,
whereas the major cash crop--cotton is mainly grown in Sanghar, Mirpurkhas, and Umerkot districts. Official data from the Crop
Reporting Services (CRS) of the Sindh Agriculture Department shows that wheat cultivation area (in hectares) has decreased by 2
percent and wheat production (in tonnes) decreased by 16 percent in the analyzed districts compared to the previous year. Out of
the nine districts analyzed, Sanghar, Mirpur Khas, Dadu, and Jamshoro districts have produced relatively more wheat compared to
the other districts. In normal conditions, Sindh has been self-sufficient in producing wheat (the staple cereal crop) and does not need
to import wheat from Punjab. However, this year, due to a reduction in wheat production as recorded in all analyzed districts in Rabi
2021-22, import of wheat would be required from Punjab or overseas.
The province is facing a significant reduction in the production of main staples. Around 45 percent of the farming households
reported a reduction in the planted area under the main crop and more than 77 percent reported a reduction in the production of
the main crop of Rabi season 2021-22 due to multiple shocks compared to a normal year. Agricultural support required by farming
households to improve crop and livestock production in the next 3-6 months includes cash assistance, fertilizers, seeds, animal feed,
veterinary services, access to irrigation water, pesticides, restocking of animals, veterinary inputs, and agricultural loans.
Livestock is one of the core assets for rural households in the analyzed areas and is kept as a source of livelihood as well as for meeting
household consumption needs. The livestock sector has also been adversely affected due to 2022 monsoon rains and flooding. As
per the household assessment, around 55 percent of households own cattle, 43 percent own goats and 1 percent own sheep, the
three most owned livestock. Around 27 percent of livestock holders who own livestock reported the death of their main livestock
during the six months preceding the household assessment, more than one-third (35 percent) reported the death of their second
main livestock, whereas 30 percent reported the death of the third main livestock2. The three main reasons for the death of livestock
reported are: livestock diseases, shortage of fodder/feed and limited availability of drinking water for animals. Among the households
that sold livestock3, 27 percent reported distress selling to meet food and other needs, 10 percent reported distress selling due to
poor health of animals, 4 percent reported distress selling due to limited availability of fodder, 1 percent reported distress selling due
to limited availability of drinking water for livestock, whereas 44 percent reported normal sale for earning a livelihood.
Nearly 65 percent of livestock holders reported a reduction in the availability of pastures in the analyzed areas compared to the three
months preceding the assessment, which could be mainly due to drought and lack/limited rainfall in the areas. Around half of the
livestock holders (49 percent) also reported difficulties in selling their livestock during the three months preceding the assessment
and the main difficulties reported are: selling prices are too low (70 percent), higher marketing costs (such as transportation) reported
by 55 percent, and usual traders or local customers are not buying as much as usual reported by 21 percent4.
According to the Seasonal Agro-Climate Outlook for June – October 2022, issued by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD),
“lower Sindh (where most of these districts are located) would receive light rainfall spells during July. These rains will benefit the
kharif crops like cotton, sugarcane, etc. in providing good soil moisture in the crop life cycle.” However, the situation has completely
changed due to several spells of monsoon rains in these districts. Eight out of nine analyzed districts, Badin, Dadu, Jamshoro, Mirpur
Khas, Sanghar, Sujawal, Thatta, and Umerkot, are notified as a calamity (flood) affected by the Government of Sindh.
The above evidence suggests that though own food production for household consumption might not be available or does not
last for long due to adverse impacts of flooding, sufficient food is available in the markets which is challenging to access due to low
purchasing power and high food prices.

2 Death of one or more main, second or third main livestock during the past six months.
3 Percentage of livestock holders who sold one or more livestock during the past six months.
4 A multiple response question
 SINDH - PAKISTAN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS 5

Access The Outcome Indicators

Pakistan is going through high levels of inflation, including food inflation, which
is most likely to have adverse impacts on the purchasing power of the population
Food Consumption Score– Overall, two-
and their access to food, particularly for poor and middle-income groups, for fifths (39 percent) of households have
some time. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data released by the Pakistan ‘acceptable’ food consumption, 28 percent
Bureau of Statistics (PBS) in July 2022 shows, that CPI inflation (General) in Pakistan have ‘borderline’ and one-third (33 percent)
increased by 24.9 percent on a year-over-year basis in July 2022. Food prices went have ‘poor’ food consumption.
up by 27.4 percent for urban consumers and 29.6 percent for rural consumers, The Household Dietary Diversity Score
on a year-over-year basis in July 2022. In particular, prices of essential food items, (HDDS)—overall, 64 percent of households
such as wheat flour, rice, cooking oil, pulses, milk, and meat, have spiked since consumed five or more food groups during
January 2022. In the three major markets surrounding the analyzed districts, on the past 24 hours reference period, 20
average, the price of wheat flour rose by 11 percent, rice (13 percent), cooking oil percent consumed between three and four
food groups, while 15 percent consumed
/ vegetable ghee (20), masoor (22), moong pulses (4), mash pulse (4), gram pulse
two or less food groups.
(6), beef (8), mutton (11), milk (4), eggs (-19), whereas prices of chicken increased
by 72 percent. Reduced Coping Strategy Index (rCSI)
– Overall, 17 percent of the households
The Russia-Ukraine crisis and other domestic and international factors are adopted High food-based (reduced) coping
contributing to increasing prices of essential food and non-food items (fuel and strategies and had a score greater than 19,
fertilizer), which represent a major driver of acute food insecurity and are also 58 percent had a score of 4-18 (Medium),
expected to erode households’ purchasing power. Pakistan imports wheat, pulses, whereas 25 percent had a score of 0-3 (Low).
Households with an rCSI score 0f 4-18 or 19+
edible oil, milk and dairy products, fuel, and fertilizers to meet its local demand
indicates that food gaps exist in these areas
and the rise in international prices of these items also contribute to high local and households are adopting short-term
prices. coping strategies to meet their food needs.
Although food is generally available in the markets, the purchasing power of The Prevalence of Moderate or Severe Food
households is considerably low due to low income, high food and fuel prices, Insecurity based on the Food Insecurity
a high incidence of poverty, and the distance to food markets, which may have Experience Scale (FIES) is also an important
adverse impacts on access to food. The access to food markets has been further indicator to assess people’s experience of
food insecurity. Overall, around half (47
challenged by flooding, which caused damages to road infrastructure.
percent) of the households had a FIES score
Around two-thirds (62 percent) of the households travel more than 30 minutes lower than -0.58, which corresponds to IPC
to reach the food markets. Nearly three-fourths of the households (73 percent) Phase 1, 29 percent had a FIES score between
reported that they face problems reaching the market such as destroyed roads, -0.58 and 0.36, corresponding to IPC Phase 2,
whereas 24 percent had a FIES score higher
unavailability of transport, high cost of transportation, and long distances to
than 0.36, which corresponds to IPC Phase
markets. 3-5.
Households have also contracted new debts to meet basic needs during the The households also resorted to Livelihood-
three months preceding the assessment. Overall, 56 percent of the households based coping strategies to meet their food
accumulated new debts, mainly to: cover food needs, medical expenses, purchase needs. Overall, 9 percent of the households
of livestock /agricultural inputs, contribution to ceremonies and business. adopted ‘emergency’ livelihood coping
Considering the already limited household income in the area and high inflation, strategies, 45 percent adopted ‘crisis’, 18
percent adopted ‘stress’, whereas 28 percent
people are likely to remain in a debt cycle for some time, as their monthly income
households did not adopt any coping
is not enough to cover the outstanding debt. strategy.
The above evidence indicates that access to food is the major issue in these areas Household Hunger Score (HHS)—Overall,
and contributes to households’ food insecurity. 12 percent of the households experienced
moderate hunger, 16 percent experienced
slight hunger, whereas around 3 out of 4 (72
Utilization
percent) households experienced no hunger
Though the overwhelming majority of households (86 percent) have access to during the past 30 days reference period.
improved sources of water in the analyzed districts, the quality of water based
on any lab test was not assessed in the assessment. Out of the households who
access improved water sources, 56 percent access water from other safe sources (tube well/boreholes/treatment plant/hand pump)
followed by piped water (13 percent), public tap (12 percent) and protected well (5 percent). Around 66 percent of households easily
access water from the main sources of drinking water. Access to improved sources of sanitation is more limited as around 40 percent
of households reported they usually use flush toilets; 18 percent of households use dry pit latrines; 20 percent use the open pit, 4
percent use the communal latrine and 18 percent of households reported open field defecation. Access to water and sanitation has
also been affected adversely due to monsoon rains/flooding, particularly in the most flood-affected areas.
 SINDH - PAKISTAN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS 6

As far as the housing status of households is concerned, 50 percent live in non-cemented (Kaccha) houses, 20 percent live in semi-
cemented homes (Semi Pakka), 21 percent in cemented (Pakka) houses and 9 percent live in chhorra/wooden/thatch houses. Overall,
76 percent of the households have access to electricity from government sources and solar panels/generators, 18 percent use lamps/
petrol lamps and 5 percent have no access to electricity. The unprecedented monsoon rains/flooding caused damages to kachha
and semi-pakka houses and the housing situation has drastically changed in the flood-affected areas.
The limiting factors for the key dimensions of food security (Availability, Access and Utilization) vary across the analyzed districts.
Overall, food availability is considered a ‘major’ limiting factor for Badin, Tharparkar and Umerkot districts only, as these districts have
limited production of staple cereals, vegetables and fruits. For other districts, availability was considered a minor or not a limiting
factor. Access is considered a ‘major’ limiting factor for all districts. The major limiting factors in term of accessibility are attributed to
several factors such as: low income, higher share of food expenditure in total household expenditure, limited sufficiency of cereal
crops, high cost of transportation, long distance to markets, reduction in income and rising food and fuel prices. Similarly, utilization
is considered a ‘major’ limiting factor for Mirpur Khas, Sujawal, Tharparkar, Thatta and Umerkot districts.

Humanitarian Food Assistance

In some districts, United Nations, along with international and local non-governmental organizations (NGOs), provided support to
help improve the livelihoods and food security situation of vulnerable households in 2022.
NGOs, such as SRSO, partnered with ACF, provided cash assistance to 17,921 people in Badin, Mirpurkhas and Thatta. The UN and
NGO partners of the Food Security and Agriculture sector are also implementing flood response in the analysed districts, however,
the scale of the response is not big enough to meet the food needs of all IPC Phase 3 and 4 population in the affected districts.

The Conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine and its Possible Impacts on Food and Agriculture
Markets in Pakistan
Both the Russian Federation and Ukraine are major players in agricultural production and suppliers of two critical inputs to production, namely
fertilizers and energy. In 2021, both countries stood among the top ten exporters of wheat, maize, oilseeds, and vegetable oils globally. Given a
considerable concentration of exportable surplus of agricultural commodities and inputs to agricultural production in the Russian Federation
and Ukraine, the conflict between the two countries has exposed global food and agricultural markets to increased volatility and vulnerability
to shocks.
Pakistan imports significant amounts of wheat, pulses, and oilseeds from the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Last year, imports from Russia
and Ukraine contributed to 77.3 percent of total wheat imports, 19.3 percent of total pulses imports, and 10.4 percent of total oilseed im-
ports into the country. Moreover, although Pakistan is not primarily dependent on these two countries for fertilizers and fossil fuels, it suffers
withstanding the negative effects of rising international prices for fertilizers and energy. Pakistan continues to bear the brunt of the conflict
between the Russian Federation and Ukraine in terms of rising prices for wheat, edible oils, chicken meat, fertilizers, and fossil fuels. During
the third week of June 2022, the domestic price of wheat went up by 31 percent, edible oils by 82 percent, chicken meat by 51 percent, DAP
fertilizer by 82 percent, petrol by 110 percent, diesel by 133 percent, and Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG) by 61 percent, compared to their levels
12 months ago.
Due to high fertilizer prices and below-average rainfall in some parts of the country, Pakistan did not meet its wheat production target of 28.9
million metric tons (MMT) for the 2021-22 season. Therefore, the government has decided to import 3 MMT of wheat in the next few months.
Wheat prices were already rising to historic levels, but with the ongoing conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine, international
wheat prices are at their highest level in the last few decades. The increased cost of production domestically due to increased fertilizer and
energy costs are expected to raise the price of wheat in the Pakistani market.
Cooking oil and ghee are also essential food commodities in Pakistan. In 2021, Pakistan produced only 8 percent of the edible oil required for
domestic consumption, and the remaining 92 percent was imported. Since the beginning of the conflict, the price of cooking oil in Pakistan
has increased by 25 percent, and that of vegetable ghee has risen by 35 percent. This increasing trend is likely to persist as the international
edible oils market may experience a considerable shortfall due to the conflict.
Pulses are classified as essential food commodities in Pakistan. Pakistan caters to a major portion of pulses demand through imports. In 2021,
the country imported $758 million worth of pulses, out of which 17 percent were from Russia and 2.25 percent from Ukraine. Any shock to the
global supply of pulses is likely to impact the availability and prices of pulses in Pakistan.
The rise in global prices will ultimately affect local food prices and access to food, especially for low-income groups. There will be severe impli-
cations for the poor population who spend a significant portion of their incomes on food.
(Source: FAO)
 SINDH - PAKISTAN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS 7

PROJECTED ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY SITUATION1 - Minimal

MAP AND POPULATION
TABLE (SEPTEMBER - DECEMBER 2022) 2 - Stressed
3 - Crisis
4 - Emergency

Key for the Map

5 - Famine

IPC Acute
Areas with Food
inadequateInsecurity
evidence
Phase Classification
Areas not analysed
(mapped
Map SymbolsPhase represents highest
severity affecting
Urban settlement at least 20% of the
classification
population)
IDPs/other settlements
1classification
- Minimal
Area receives significant
2 - Stressed
humanitarian food assistance
3 -forCrisis
(accounted in Phase classification)
> 25% of households meet 25-50%
4of -caloric
Emergency
needs through assistance
5>-25%
Famine
of households meet > 50%
of caloric needs through assistance
Areas with inadequate evidence
Evidence Level
Areas not analysed
Acceptable
** *Medium
** Medium
High
***
Map Symbols
Scarce evidence due to limited or
no humanitarian access
Urban settlement
classification
IDPs/other settlements
classification

Area receives significant

humanitarian food assistance
(accounted for in Phase classification)
> 25% of households meet 25-50%
of caloric needs through assistance
> 25% of households meet > 50%
of caloric needs through assistance
Evidence Level
* Acceptable
** Medium
*** High
Scarce evidence due to limited or
no humanitarian access

Population table for the projected period: September – December 2022

District Total Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Area Phase 3+

population Phase
analysed* #people % #people % #people % #people % #people % #people %

Badin 1,605,438 321,088 20 481,631 30 481,631 30 321,088 20 0 0 4 802,719 50

Dadu 1,260,395 189,059 15 315,099 25 504,158 40 252,079 20 0 0 4 756,237 60
Jamshoro 596,244 208,685 35 178,873 30 149,061 25 59,624 10 0 0 3 208,685 35
Mirpur khas 1,217,894 121,789 10 426,263 35 426,263 35 243,579 20 0 0 4 669,842 55
Sanghar 1,660,835 332,167 20 415,209 25 581,292 35 332,167 20 0 0 4 913,459 55
Sujawal 779,720 233,916 30 272,902 35 155,944 20 116,958 15 0 0 3 272,902 35
Tharparkar 1,757,595 527,279 30 439,399 25 615,158 35 175,760 10 0 0 3 790,918 45
Thatta 906,721 272,016 30 317,352 35 226,680 25 90,672 10 0 0 3 317,352 35
Umer Kot 931,066 93,107 10 325,873 35 325,873 35 186,213 20 0 0 4 512,086 55
Total 10,715,908 2,299,106 21 3,172,601 30 3,466,061 32 1,778,140 17 0 0 5,244,201 49

Note: A population in Phase 3+ does not necessarily reflect the full population in need of urgent action. This is because some households may be in Phase 2 or even 1 but only because of receipt of
assistance, and thus, they may be in need of continued action. Marginal inconsistencies that may arise in the overall percentages of totals and grand totals are attributable to rounding.
 SINDH - PAKISTAN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS 8

PROJECTED SITUATION OVERVIEW (SEPTEMBER-DECEMBER 2022)

During the projection period (September - December 2022), corresponding to

the harvesting of Kharif season crops and sowing of Rabi season crops, the total Key Assumptions:
population facing high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) is expected to Price levels (food and fuel prices) are
increase to 5.24 million from 3.23 million, representing 49 percent of the analyzed expected to increase further due to
population. This shows a 2.01 million or 62 percent increase of people facing the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis, other
high levels of acute food insecurity from the current to the projection period. Out domestic and international factors and
of nine analyzed districts, four districts will remain in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and five the 2022 flooding.
districts (Badin, Dadu, Mirpur Khas, Sanghar and Umerkot) will fall in IPC Phase 4
Low purchasing power is expected to
(Emergency). An increase of 0.88 million people in the number of people in IPC
continue for rural households because
Phase 4 (Emergency) due to the continuous rise in prices of food and non-food
of lingering effects of high food prices,
items, reduced employment opportunities/income, reduced food production due
fuel prices and damages/losses due to
to recent monsoon rains and flooding which have caused crop damages, livestock
2022 flooding.
losses and irrigation infrastructure damages on a large scale, and an emergency has
been declared in Sindh province. Flood emergency has been declared
in Sindh and livestock diseases are
Furthermore, own production of wheat, other cereals and pulses are not expected
increasing due to flooding.
to meet sufficient levels to ensure adequate household consumption, even if the
stocks remain safe after the monsoon/flooding season. Therefore, the majority of The damages of agricultural land
households is likely to remain dependent on markets to access food during the with ripe crops flooded with water and
projected period. losses of livestock caused by monsoon
rains/flooding will contribute to the
Half of the analyzed districts have desert or rain-fed regions and do not receive
high levels of acute food insecurity in
adequate and timely rainfall at critical stages of crop production, resulting in low
the projection period.
production of cereals and vegetables. In this monsoon season, all districts except
Tharparkar have received 300 percent more rain than normal, which resulted in Food stocks are not expected to
flooding, but at the same time, it is also anticipated that it will help to increase the improve because of damaged Kharif
production of cereals and vegetables, and the level of groundwater in the future. crops, and delay in sowing of Rabi crops
during the projection period, however,
Food access is dependent on markets. High food prices, low food production, low
food markets could be accessed to
purchasing power and flooding conditions are the primary factors exacerbating the
meet food needs.
high levels of food insecurity. Considering the current inflation trends and economic
situation, factors such as rising food prices, and high fuel and electricity costs would Livelihood opportunities for farming
place further stress on the food security of vulnerable households. households are expected to increase
slightly due to the planting season
General as well as food inflation are likely to continue and are expected to result in
during the last two months of the
low purchasing power of households, particularly for low-income groups, e.g. small
projection period.
farmers, wage laborers, households relying on petty trades, etc. (especially those
affected by recent monsoon rains/flooding), and might place further stress on the
food security of vulnerable households, ending up with food consumption gaps.
Livestock diseases such as lumpy skin and other infectious diseases are also likely to surface post floods which will have adverse
impacts on the health, production, and sale of livestock.
The cultivation of Rabi (winter) crops will be completed during November/December and food stocks of farming households from
their own production will be finishing during the projection period. Labor opportunities are expected to increase slightly during the
plantation period in November-December, contributing to the food and income for the people associated with the wage sector for
some periods. On the other hand, due to the recent flooding situation, if agriculture conditions improve, there may be a positive
impact on agriculture, livestock, and wage labor opportunities.
Considering the above-mentioned factors, less opportunities for agriculture and non-agriculture-based livelihoods and market-
related activities are expected, which would result in less income, lower food consumption, and high food insecurity during the
projection period (September-December 2022).
Based on all the factors mentioned above, the phas e classification of five districts (Badin, Dadu, Mirpurkhas, Sanghar, and Umerkot)
is expected to change from Phase 2 (Stressed) and Phase 3 (Crisis) to Phase 4 (Emergency) in the projection period (September-
December 2022). Therefore, it is likely that there will be an increase in the number of people (by 1.93 million or about 60 percent)
facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) during the projection period.
 SINDH - PAKISTAN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS 9

COMPARISON WITH PREVIOUS IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSES

The previous IPC Acute Food Insecurity (AFI) analysis was conducted in the same nine districts of Sindh in October 2021. The previous
AFI analysis was conducted mainly in the context of drought and COVID-19. Due to the analysis periods being different in the
previous round and a slight change in the context, a direct comparison with the previous round is not suitable. However, some of
the key drivers identified in the last analysis were also key factors for this round, as high food prices, drought conditions, and livestock
diseases/deaths continue to impact households’ food security.
Compared to the previous analysis in October 2021, the acute food insecurity has increased overall. More specifically, it has:
• Increased: in Badin, Mirpurkhas, Sanghar, Tharparkar, Thatta and Umerkot.
• Decreased: in Jamshoro and Sujawal.
• No change: in Dadu.
 SINDH - PAKISTAN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS 10

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ACTION

Response Priorities
This analysis shows a worsened food insecurity situation in the analyzed districts due to exposure to multiple shocks experienced
during 2022. In response to the Crisis and Emergency acute food insecurity situation in the analyzed districts, the following immediate
response actions are suggested to help save lives and livelihoods:
• Improve access to food through appropriate modalities such as food or cash and voucher assistance to reduce food consumption
gaps and to protect asset depletion for the populations classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
• Scale up the restoration of livelihoods and initiate income-generation/employment-creation livelihood support interventions and
recovery projects, to support families affected by multiple shocks, including monsoon flooding, persistent droughts, and price hikes.
• Provide in a timely manner quality seeds for high-yielding crops and vegetables, and agriculture tools, especially to subsistence-level
farmers.
• Train farmers on climate-smart crop and fodder production, including guidance on kitchen gardening.
• Scale up livestock protection and management interventions such as vaccination and deworming campaigns to prevent diseases,
and facilitate access to fodder, multi-nutritional feed, and pastures to help in preventing distress sales. Livestock programmes should
target vulnerable households and women farmers. Support seeding of rangelands to produce quality fodder.
• Provide livestock/poultry to vulnerable households.
• Build and rehabilitate water infrastructure for agriculture and livestock such as tube-wells, water channels, and reservoirs for better
conservation and management. De-silting of critical sections of irrigation channels would be required after the recent flooding.
Resilient water infrastructure can help in reducing the impact of recurring floods and droughts.
• Build and rehabilitate animal sheds/shelters damaged by recent flooding.
• Introduce livelihood diversification activities for local communities to increase income generation and employment opportunities.
• Integrate women in economic growth activities (agriculture and non-agriculture) to improve their livelihoods.
• Build communities’ capacity to process and preserve seasonal products to enable them to earn higher income from processed fruits
and vegetables and meet food requirements in the lean seasons.
• Initiate/scale up disaster preparedness interventions in recurring climate shocks prone districts, such as those affected by floods or
drought, etc.
• Initiate/scale up disaster resilience-building programmes and skill development trainings in different trades in the most vulnerable
areas, through conditional food/cash programmes, for households facing worsening socio-economic crisis conditions.
Situation Monitoring and Update
• The food security situation in the analyzed areas needs to be monitored regularly due to the high levels of acute food insecurity
and malnutrition, in addition to the high incidences of poverty and vulnerability of households.
• If macroeconomic trends persist in Pakistan, with rising inflation and climatic conditions (flooding), there could be more adverse
effects on the food security situation in the coming months. Projections may also be revised to reflect those changes if necessary.
• It is recommended to conduct regular or seasonal household food security and livelihood assessments/surveys and IPC Acute
Food Insecurity analyses to monitor the food security situation in these areas and other vulnerable districts of Sindh to inform
policymakers on the food security situation in the vulnerable areas. The next IPC Acute Food Insecurity analysis is planned for
February 2023.
• The IPC analysis guides on district vulnerability ranking and provides population numbers in Crisis and Emergency in the
current period as well as short-term projections, and can serve as an important tool for advocacy to prioritize the right areas
and population. It is recommended to use the IPC analysis findings for informing geographic targeting and prioritization of
Government-led social safety programme (BISP/EHSAS).
 SINDH - PAKISTAN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS 11

Risk Factors to Monitor

• Prices of essential food items- The increasing prices of essential food and non-food items is a major risk to the food security of
households, which is also expected to erode their purchasing power that needs to be monitored. The prolonged Russia-Ukraine
crisis and damages/losses of food due to the 2022 monsoon rains and flooding can further contribute to rising food, fuel and
fertilizer prices.
• Reduced food production- Food production will reduce due to floods and high prices of pesticides and fertilizers. Flash/riverine
flooding and torrential rains usually damage agriculture production, and could further reduce food production and damage
assets. These should be monitored.
• Climatic conditions- The climatic conditions are crucial to monitor, as they may impact agricultural production and livelihoods.
Mild drought conditions were prevailing in 8 out of the 9 analyzed districts. Monsoon rains/flood also caused a reduction in crop
production because of damages to agricultural land with ripe crops under water, damages to irrigation infrastructure, and losses
of livestock.
• Livestock diseases- Livestock diseases such as lumpy skin and other infectious diseases are also likely to surface post-floods.
• Loss of employment/income- Due to the economic instability and exchange rate depreciation, fuel prices and cost of production
are increasing, which may cause loss of employment and may affect the livelihoods further.
 SINDH - PAKISTAN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS 12

PROCESS AND METHODOLOGY

The IPC Acute Food Insecurity analysis was conducted for two time periods. The initial current period of analysis was July-November
2022 which was mainly based on data from household assessments conducted in April 2022 , along with other secondary information
sources. The initial projection period of analysis was December 2022-March 2023, which was based on data from household
assessments, other secondary information sources, and forward-looking assumptions on rainfall, food prices, crop harvests, and
livelihood opportunities. However, due to the unprecedented monsoon rains and flooding situation, which have caused a catastrophic
situation in almost the entire Sindh, the periods of the analysis have been changed and the projection period of analysis was updated
in September using the flood damages/losses data on the advice of the IPC Global Support Unit (GSU) and in consultation with the
IPC partners. The revised current period of analysis is now July-August 2022, whereas the revised projection period is September-
December 2022. The analysis covered the nine districts of Sindh, namely: Badin, Dadu, Jamshoro, Mirpur Khas, Sanghar, Sujawal,
Tharparakar, Thatta, and Umerkot.
A joint training and analysis workshop was held from 1-7 July 2022 in Karachi, Pakistan. The workshop was attended by officials/
staff of Federal and Provincial government ministries/departments, UN organizations, and international and local NGOs. This analysis
has been conducted in close collaboration with IPC stakeholders at national and provincial levels, including the Ministry of National
Food Security and Research (MNFSR), the Ministry of National Health Services, Regulations and Coordination (MNHR&C), the Pakistan
Agriculture Research Council (PARC), the Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives (MPD&SI), the National Disaster
Management Authority (NDMA), the Bureau of Statistics of Sindh, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the Provincial Disaster
Management Authorities (PDMAs) of Sindh, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the Agriculture and Livestock Departments of
Sindh, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, UN Organizations (FAO, WFP, UNICEF), and International and National NGOs (including:
Welthungerhilfe (WHH), Concern Worldwide, ACTED, Action Against Hunger (ACF), Secours Islamique France (SIF), Islamic Relief
(IR), HANDS, Tameer-e-Khalaq Foundation (TKF), Fast Rural Development Program (FRDP), Taraqee Foundation (TF), Foundation For
Rural Development (FRD), Balochistan Rural Support Programme (BRSP) and RDF. The analysis for the revised projection period has
also been updated by the same group of analysts. The active participation and support of officials/staff from the above ministries/
departments/organizations are highly acknowledged.
The data used in the analysis was organized according to the IPC analytical framework and included data on food security contributing
factors and outcome indicators. The data was collected from multiple sources listed below and the analysis was conducted in ISS.

Sources
Data sources used for this analysis included:
• The Household Food Security and Livelihood Assessment carried out in 28 districts of Sindh, Balochistan, and Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa in April 2022 . The assessment provided information on a wide range of indicators: both outcome and contributing
factors. The outcome indicators included in the analysis are the Food Consumption Score (FCS), the Household Dietary Diversity
Score (HDDS), the Household Hunger Scale (HHS), the reduced Coping Strategy Index (rCSI), Livelihood Coping Strategies, and
Prevalence of Moderate and Severe Food Insecurity based on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES);
• Crop production data from the Crop Reporting Services (CRS), Agriculture Department, Sindh;
• Food prices data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS);
• Projected population based on the 2017 Population Census by the Sindh Bureau of Statistics;
• Food and cash assistance, agriculture support, livelihood support/other distribution from WFP, FAO, INGOs, and NGOs;
• Precipitation/rainfall/flood sitreps and Seasonal Agro-Climate Outlook from PMD and PDMA Sindh;
• Flood damages/losses data on crop area affected, livestock perished, houses damaged and the number of people affected from
the provincial government departments (PDMA, Agriculture and Livestock Departments).

The Evidence Level of this analysis is Medium**.

5
The household assessment was conducted in collaboration with Provincial Disaster Management Authorities (PDMAs) of Sindh, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
and Food Security and Agriculture Working Group (FSAWG) members (Islamic Relief, Welthungerhilfe, Tameer-e-Khalq Foundation, CESVI and others) by FAO, in 28
districts of Sindh, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in April 2022.
6
See above footnote 5.
 SINDH - PAKISTAN | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS 13

Limitations of the analysis What is the IPC and IPC Acute

Food Insecurity?
Limitations of the Analysis and Recommendation for Future Analyses The IPC is a set of tools and procedures to clas-
• Due to the availability of a limited number of evidence informing the projection sify the severity and characteristics of acute
food and nutrition crises as well as chronic
and with quite a probabilistic weather forecast, the analysis was revised after
food insecurity based on international stan-
getting notifications regarding heavy rains/flooding. dards. The IPC consists of four mutually rein-
• Humanitarian Food Assistance (HFA) data was not available in the format allowing forcing functions, each with a set of specific
protocols (tools and procedures). The core IPC
to extrapolate Kilo-calories coverage. parameters include consensus building, con-
• The household assessment and the IPC analysis have covered only rural areas vergence of evidence, accountability, trans-
parency and comparability. The IPC analysis
of 9 districts. As such, the results should not be extrapolated or generalized as
aims at informing emergency response as
representative of the whole population in the area, but only of rural households. well as medium and long-term food security
• This IPC analysis was conducted in July 2022, just before the flood started. It policy and programming.
has been updated in September to account for flood damages/losses, yet this For the IPC, Acute Food Insecurity is defined
analysis does not fully capture the food insecurity situation in the province which as any manifestation of food insecurity found
in a specified area at a specific point in time of
has aggravated due to flooding. The next IPC AFI analysis is planned for February
a severity that threatens lives or livelihoods, or
2023. It will provide an updated food insecurity situation. Further, the discussion both, regardless of the causes, context or du-
is also ongoing with partners to consider the extrapolation of IPC findings of ration. It is highly susceptible to change and
flood-affected districts to flood-affected districts not covered by the IPC and can occur and manifest in a population within
prepare a consolidated snapshot. However, it will be decided based on the need a short amount of time, as a result of sudden
changes or shocks that negatively impact on
for this information, availability, and interest of the partners.
the determinants of food insecurity.
Acknowledgements
The IPC training was facilitated by Duaa Syed (IPC Food Security Analyst) and co-
facilitated by Raja Ajmal Jahangeer and Asifa Ghani (FAO), Aman ur Rehman Khan and Contact for further Information
Khadim Shah (WFP), Kazim Jafri (Sindh Bureau of Statistics), Shafqat Ullah (Concern
Jahangeer, Raja Ajmal
Worldwide), Mehvish Asghar (Ministry of Planning, Development & Special Initiatives)
and Amir Ali. IPC Coordinator - Pakistan
The IPC analysis for Sindh districts was facilitated by Duaa Syed (IPC Food Security Email: Raja.Jahangeer@fao.org
Analyst) and co-facilitated by Raja Ajmal Jahangeer, Kazim Jafri, Mehvish Asghar
and Sarfraz Bhutto (Sindh Agriculture Department). The support of Duaa Syed (IPC IPC Global Support Unit
Food Security Analyst) for data quality review, uploading evidence in ISS, revision of www.ipcinfo.org
analysis areas in ISS, and participating in the plenary discussion is highly appreciated.
The support of Muhammad Afzal (FAO) for uploading data in ISS and Areesha Asghar This analysis has been conducted under
the patronage of the Provincial Disaster
(FAO) for the preparation of maps is also highly appreciated. The critical support of
Management Authority (PDMA) Khyber
Asifa Ghani for organizing the IPC training & analysis workshop and preparing this Pakhtunkhwa. It has benefited from the
communication brief is highly acknowledged. The valuable support of the Provincial technical and financial support of IPC Global
Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) Sindh for providing coordination support Support Unit.
for household food security and livelihood assessment in April 2022 is also highly Classification of food insecurity and
acknowledged. malnutrition was conducted using the
IPC protocols, which are developed and
Further, financial support from the IPC GSU, WFP, Islamic Relief, WHH, and TKF for co- implemented worldwide by the IPC Global
financing this IPC workshop is also highly acknowledged. Partnership - Action Against Hunger, CARE,
CILSS, EC-JRC , FAO, FEWSNET, Global Food
Security Cluster, Global Nutrition Cluster,
IGAD, Oxfam, PROGRESAN-SICA, SADC, Save
the Children, UNICEF and WFP.

IPC Analysis Partners: