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 Contents    vii

Chapter 3 Decision Analysis 65 4.8 Multiple Regression Analysis 128

3.1 Introduction 66 Evaluating the Multiple Regression Model 129
3.2 The Six Steps in Decision Making 66 Jenny Wilson Realty Example 130
3.3 Types of Decision-Making Environments 67 4.9 Binary or Dummy Variables 131
3.4 Decision Making Under Uncertainty 68 4.10 Model Building 132
Optimistic 68 Stepwise Regression 133
Pessimistic 69 Multicollinearity 133
Criterion of Realism (Hurwicz Criterion) 69 4.11 Nonlinear Regression 133
Equally Likely (Laplace) 70 4.12 Cautions and Pitfalls in Regression
Minimax Regret 70 Analysis 136
3.5 Decision Making Under Risk 71 Summary 137 Glossary 137
Key Equations 138 Solved Problems 139
Expected Monetary Value 71 Self-Test 141 Discussion Questions and
Expected Value of Perfect Information 72 Problems 141 Case Study: North–South
Expected Opportunity Loss 74 Airline 146 Bibliography 147
Sensitivity Analysis 74 Appendix 4.1: Formulas for Regression Calculations 147
3.6 A Minimization Example 75
3.7 Using Software for Payoff Table Problems 77 Chapter 5 Forecasting 149
QM for Windows 77 5.1 Introduction 150
Excel QM 78 5.2 Types of Forecasting Models 150
3.8 Decision Trees 79 Qualitative Models 150
Efficiency of Sample Information 84 Causal Models 151
Sensitivity Analysis 84 Time-Series Models 151
3.9 How Probability Values Are Estimated 5.3 Components of a Time-Series 151
by Bayesian Analysis 85
5.4 Measures of Forecast Accuracy 153
Calculating Revised Probabilities 85
5.5 Forecasting Models—Random Variations
Potential Problem in Using Survey Results 87 Only 156
3.10 Utility Theory 88 Moving Averages 156
Measuring Utility and Constructing Weighted Moving Averages 156
a Utility Curve 89
Exponential Smoothing 158
Utility as a Decision-Making Criterion 92
Using Software for Forecasting Time Series 160
Summary 94 Glossary 94
Key Equations 95 Solved Problems 95 5.6 Forecasting Models—Trend and Random
Self-Test 100 Discussion Questions and Variations 163
Problems 101 Case Study: Starting Right Exponential Smoothing with Trend 163
Corporation 109 Case Study: Blake Trend Projections 165
Electronics 110 Bibliography 112
5.7 Adjusting for Seasonal Variations 167
Chapter 4 Regression Models 113 Seasonal Indices 168
4.1 Introduction 114 Calculating Seasonal Indices with No
Trend 168
4.2 Scatter Diagrams 114
Calculating Seasonal Indices with Trend 169
4.3 Simple Linear Regression 115
5.8 Forecasting Models—Trend, Seasonal, and
4.4 Measuring the Fit of the Regression Model 117 Random Variations 170
Coefficient of Determination 118
The Decomposition Method 170
Correlation Coefficient 118
Software for Decomposition 173
4.5 Assumptions of the Regression Model 120 Using Regression with Trend and Seasonal
Estimating the Variance 121 Components 174
4.6 Testing the Model for Significance 121 5.9 Monitoring and Controlling Forecasts 175
Triple A Construction Example 123 Adaptive Smoothing 177
The Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) Table 123 Summary 177 Glossary 178
Triple A Construction ANOVA Example 124 Key Equations 178 Solved Problems 179
4.7 Using Computer Software for Regression 124 Self-Test 180 Discussion Questions and
Problems 181 Case Study: Forecasting Attendance
Excel 2013 124 at SWU Football Games 184
Excel QM 125 Case Study: Forecasting Monthly
QM for Windows 127 Sales 185 Bibliography 186
viii   Contents

Chapter 6 Inventory Control Models 187 Chapter 7 Linear Programming Models: Graphical
6.1 Introduction 188 and Computer Methods 239
6.2 Importance of Inventory Control 189 7.1 Introduction 240
Decoupling Function 189 7.2 Requirements of a Linear Programming
Storing Resources 189 Problem 240
Irregular Supply and Demand 189 7.3 Formulating LP Problems 241
Quantity Discounts 189 Flair Furniture Company 241
Avoiding Stockouts and Shortages 189 7.4 Graphical Solution to an LP Problem 243
6.3 Inventory Decisions 190 Graphical Representation of Constraints 243
6.4 Economic Order Quantity: Determining How Isoprofit Line Solution Method 247
Much to Order 191 Corner Point Solution Method 250
Inventory Costs in the EOQ Situation 192 Slack and Surplus 252
Finding the EOQ 194 7.5 Solving Flair Furniture’s LP Problem Using
Sumco Pump Company Example 194 QM for Windows, Excel 2013, and Excel
QM 253
Purchase Cost of Inventory Items 195
Using QM for Windows 253
Sensitivity Analysis with the EOQ Model 196
Using Excel’s Solver Command to Solve
6.5 Reorder Point: Determining When LP Problems 254
to Order 197
Using Excel QM 257
6.6 EOQ Without the Instantaneous Receipt
Assumption 198 7.6 Solving Minimization Problems 259
Annual Carrying Cost for Production Run Holiday Meal Turkey Ranch 259
Model 199 7.7 Four Special Cases in LP 263
Annual Setup Cost or Annual Ordering No Feasible Solution 263
Cost 199 Unboundedness 263
Determining the Optimal Production Redundancy 264
Quantity 200
Alternate Optimal Solutions 265
Brown Manufacturing Example 200
7.8 Sensitivity Analysis 266
6.7 Quantity Discount Models 202 High Note Sound Company 267
Brass Department Store Example 204
Changes in the Objective Function
6.8 Use of Safety Stock 206 Coefficient 268
6.9 Single-Period Inventory Models 211 QM for Windows and Changes in Objective
Marginal Analysis with Discrete Function Coefficients 268
Distributions 212 Excel Solver and Changes in Objective Function
Café du Donut Example 213 Coefficients 269
Marginal Analysis with the Normal Changes in the Technological Coefficients 270
Distribution 214 Changes in the Resources or Right-Hand-Side
Newspaper Example 214 Values 271
6.10 ABC Analysis 216 QM for Windows and Changes in Right-Hand-
6.11 Dependent Demand: The Case for Material Side Values 272
Requirements Planning 216 Excel Solver and Changes in Right-Hand-Side
Material Structure Tree 217 Values 272
Gross and Net Material Requirements Summary 274 Glossary 274
Plan 218 Solved Problems 275 Self-Test 279
Discussion Questions and Problems 280
Two or More End Products 219 Case Study: Mexicana Wire Works 288
6.12 Just-In-Time Inventory Control 221 Bibliography 290
6.13 Enterprise Resource Planning 222
Summary 223 Glossary 223
Chapter 8 Linear Programming Applications 291
Key Equations 224 Solved Problems 225 8.1 Introduction 292
Self-Test 227 Discussion Questions and 8.2 Marketing Applications 292
Problems 228 Case Study: Martin-Pullin Bicycle Media Selection 292
Corporation 235 Bibliography 236
Marketing Research 293
Appendix 6.1: Inventory Control with QM for Windows 237 8.3 Manufacturing Applications 296
Production Mix 296
Production Scheduling 297
 Contents    ix

8.4 Employee Scheduling Applications 301 Limiting the Number of Alternatives

Labor Planning 301 Selected 372
8.5 Financial Applications 303 Dependent Selections 372
Portfolio Selection 303 Fixed-Charge Problem Example 372
Truck Loading Problem 306 Financial Investment Example 374
8.6 Ingredient Blending Applications 308 10.4 Goal Programming 374
Diet Problems 308 Example of Goal Programming: Harrison Electric
Company Revisited 376
Ingredient Mix and Blending Problems 309
Extension to Equally Important Multiple
8.7 Other Linear Programming Applications 311 Goals 377
Summary 313 Self-Test 313 Ranking Goals with Priority Levels 377
Problems 314 Case Study: Cable &
Moore 321 Bibliography 322 Goal Programming with Weighted Goals 378
10.5 Nonlinear Programming 379
Chapter 9 Transportation, Assignment, and Network Nonlinear Objective Function and Linear
Models 323 Constraints 380
9.1 Introduction 324 Both Nonlinear Objective Function and
9.2 The Transportation Problem 325 Nonlinear Constraints 380
Linear Program for the Transportation Linear Objective Function with Nonlinear
Example 325 Constraints 382
Solving Transportation Problems Using Summary 382 Glossary 383
Computer Software 325 Solved Problems 383 Self-Test 386
Discussion Questions and Problems 387
A General LP Model for Transportation Case Study: Schank Marketing
Problems 326 Research 392 Case Study: Oakton River
Facility Location Analysis 327 Bridge 393 Bibliography 394
9.3 The Assignment Problem 330
Linear Program for Assignment Example 330
Chapter 11 Project Management 395
9.4 The Transshipment Problem 332 11.1 Introduction 396
Linear Program for Transshipment Example 332
11.2 PERT/CPM 397
General Foundry Example of PERT/CPM 397
9.5 Maximal-Flow Problem 335
Drawing the PERT/CPM Network 399
Example 335
Activity Times 399
9.6 Shortest-Route Problem 337
How to Find the Critical Path 400
9.7 Minimal-Spanning Tree Problem 338
Probability of Project Completion 405
Summary 342 Glossary 343
Solved Problems 343 Self-Test 345 What PERT Was Able to Provide 406
Discussion Questions and Problems 346 Using Excel QM for the General Foundry
Case Study: Andrew–Carter, Inc. 357 Example 406
Case Study: Northeastern Airlines 358 Sensitivity Analysis and Project Management 407
Case Study: Southwestern University Traffic
Problems 359 Bibliography 360 11.3 PERT/Cost 409
Planning and Scheduling Project Costs:
Appendix 9.1: Using QM for Windows 360 Budgeting Process 409
Chapter 10 Integer Programming, Goal Programming, Monitoring and Controlling Project Costs 412
and Nonlinear Programming 363 11.4 Project Crashing 414
10.1 Introduction 364 General Foundary Example 415
10.2 Integer Programming 364 Project Crashing with Linear Programming 416
Harrison Electric Company Example of Integer 11.5 Other Topics in Project Management 419
Programming 364 Subprojects 419
Using Software to Solve the Harrison Integer Milestones 419
Programming Problem 366 Resource Leveling 419
Mixed-Integer Programming Problem Software 419
Example 368
Summary 419 Glossary 420
10.3 Modeling with 0–1 (Binary) Variables 370 Key Equations 420 Solved Problems 421
Capital Budgeting Example 370
x   Contents
Self-Test 423 Discussion Questions and
Problems 424 Case Study: Southwestern
University Stadium Construction 429
Case Study: Family Planning Research Center of
Nigeria 430 Bibliography 432
Appendix 11.1: Project Management with QM
for Windows 432
Chapter 12 Waiting Lines and Queuing Theory
Models 435
12.1 Introduction 436
12.2 Waiting Line Costs 436
Three Rivers Shipping Company Example 437
12.3 Characteristics of a Queuing System 438
Arrival Characteristics 438
Waiting Line Characteristics 438
Service Facility Characteristics 439
Identifying Models Using Kendall Notation 439
12.4 Single-Channel Queuing Model with Poisson
Arrivals and Exponential Service Times
(M/M/1) 442
Assumptions of the Model 442
Queuing Equations 442
Arnold’s Muffler Shop Case 443
Enhancing the Queuing Environment 447
12.5 Multichannel Queuing Model with Poisson
Arrivals and Exponential Service Times
(M/M/m) 447
Equations for the Multichannel Queuing
Model 448
Arnold’s Muffler Shop Revisited 448
12.6 Constant Service Time Model (M/D/1) 450
Equations for the Constant Service Time
Model 450
Garcia-Golding Recycling, Inc. 451
12.7 Finite Population Model (M/M/1 with Finite
Source) 452
Equations for the Finite Population Model 452
Department of Commerce Example 453
12.8 Some General Operating Characteristic
Relationships 454
12.9 More Complex Queuing Models and the Use
of Simulation 454
Summary 455 Glossary 455
Key Equations 456 Solved Problems 457
Self-Test 460 Discussion Questions and
Problems 461 Case Study: New England
Foundry 465 Case Study: Winter Park
Hotel 467 Bibliography 467
Appendix 12.1: Using QM for Windows 468
Chapter 13 Simulation Modeling 469
13.1 Introduction 470
13.2 Advantages and Disadvantages
of Simulation 471
13.3 Monte Carlo Simulation 472
Harry’s Auto Tire Example 472
Using QM for Windows for Simulation 477
Simulation with Excel Spreadsheets 478
13.4 Simulation and Inventory Analysis 480
Simkin’s Hardware Store 480
Analyzing Simkin’s Inventory Costs 483
13.5 Simulation of a Queuing Problem 484
Port of New Orleans 484
Using Excel to Simulate the Port of New Orleans
Queuing Problem 486
13.6 Simulation Model for a Maintenance
Policy 487
Three Hills Power Company 487
Cost Analysis of the Simulation 489
13.7 Other Simulation Issues 492
Two Other Types of Simulation Models 492
Verification and Validation 493
Role of Computers in Simulation 494
Summary 494 Glossary 494
Solved Problems 495 Self-Test 498
Discussion Questions and Problems 499
Case Study: Alabama Airlines 504
Case Study: Statewide Development
Corporation 505 Case Study: FB Badpoore
Aerospace 506 Bibliography 508
Chapter 14 Markov Analysis 509
14.1 Introduction 510
14.2 States and State Probabilities 510
The Vector of State Probabilities for Three
Grocery Stores Example 511
14.3 Matrix of Transition Probabilities 512
Transition Probabilities for the Three Grocery
Stores 513
14.4 Predicting Future Market Shares 513
14.5 Markov Analysis of Machine Operations 514
14.6 Equilibrium Conditions 515
14.7 Absorbing States and the Fundamental
Matrix: Accounts Receivable Application 518
Summary 522 Glossary 523
Key Equations 523 Solved Problems 523
Self-Test 527 Discussion Questions
and Problems 527 Case Study: Rentall
Trucks 532 Bibliography 533
Appendix 14.1: Markov Analysis with QM for Windows 533
Appendix 14.2: Markov Analysis With Excel 535
Chapter 15 Statistical Quality Control 537
15.1 Introduction 538
15.2 Defining Quality and TQM 538
15.3 Statiscal Process Control 539
Variability in the Process 539
 Contents    xi

15.4 Control Charts for Variables 541 M2.3 Dynamic Programming Terminology M2-6
The Central Limit Theorem 541 M2.4 Dynamic Programming Notation M2-8
Setting x-Chart Limits 542 M2.5 Knapsack Problem M2-9
Setting Range Chart Limits 545 Types of Knapsack Problems M2-9
15.5 Control Charts for Attributes 546 Roller’s Air Transport Service Problem M2-9
p-Charts 546 Summary M2-16 Glossary M2-16 Key
c-Charts 548 Equations M2-16 Solved Problems M2-16
Self-Test M2-18 Discussion Questions
Summary 550 Glossary 550 and Problems M2-19 Case Study:
Key Equations 550 Solved Problems 551 United Trucking M2-22 Internet Case
Self-Test 552 Discussion Questions and Study M2-22 Bibliography M2-22
Problems 552 Bibliography 555
Appendix 15.1: Using QM for Windows for SPC 555 Module 3 Decision Theory and the Normal
Distribution M3-1
appendices 557 M3.1 Introduction M3-2
Appendix A Areas Under the Standard M3.2 Break-Even Analysis and the Normal
Normal Curve 558 Distribution M3-2
Appendix B Binomial Probabilities 560 Barclay Brothers Company’s New Product
Decision M3-2
Appendix c Values of e-l for Use in the Poisson Probability Distribution of Demand M3-3
Distribution 565
Using Expected Monetary Value to Make a
Appendix D F Distribution Values 566 Decision M3-5
Appendix E Using POM-QM for Windows 568 M3.3 Expected Value of Perfect Information and the
Normal Distribution M3-6
Appendix F Using Excel QM and Excel Add-Ins 571
Opportunity Loss Function M3-6
Appendix G Solutions to Selected Problems 572 Expected Opportunity Loss M3-6
Appendix H Solutions to Self-Tests 576 Summary M3-8 Glossary M3-8
Key Equations M3-8 Solved Problems M3-9
index 579 Self-Test M3-9 Discussion Questions and
Problems M3-10 Bibliography M3-11
Appendix M3.1: Derivation of the Break-Even Point M3-11
ONLINE Modules
Appendix M3.2: Unit Normal Loss Integral M3-12
Module 1 Analytic Hierarchy Process M1-1
Module 4 Game Theory M4-1
M1.1 Introduction M1-2
M4.1 Introduction M4-2
M1.2 Multifactor Evaluation Process M1-2
M4.2 Language of Games M4-2
M1.3 Analytic Hierarchy Process M1-4
M4.3 The Minimax Criterion M4-3
Judy Grim’s Computer Decision M1-4
M4.4 Pure Strategy Games M4-4
Using Pairwise Comparisons M1-5
M4.5 Mixed Strategy Games M4-5
Evaluations for Hardware M1-7
M4.6 Dominance M4-6
Determining the Consistency Ratio M1-7
Summary M4-7 Glossary M4-7 Solved
Evaluations for the Other Factors M1-9 Problems M4-7 Self-Test M4-8
Determining Factor Weights M1-10 Discussion Questions and Problems M4-8
Overall Ranking M1-10 Bibliography M4-10
Using the Computer to Solve Analytic Hierarchy
Process Problems M1-10 Module 5 Mathematical Tools: Determinants
M1.4 Comparison of Multifactor Evaluation and and Matrices M5-1
Analytic Hierarchy Processes M1-11 M5.1 Introduction M5-2
Summary M1-12 Glossary M1-12 Key M5.2 Matrices and Matrix
Equations M1-12 Solved Problems M1-12 Operations M5-2
Self-Test M1-14 Discussion Questions and Matrix Addition and Subtraction M5-2
Problems M1-14 Bibliography M1-16 Matrix Multiplication M5-3
Appendix M1.1: Using Excel for the Analytic Hierarchy Matrix Notation for Systems
Process M1-16 of Equations M5-6
Module 2 Dynamic Programming M2-1 Matrix Transpose M5-6
M2.1 Introduction M2-2 M5.3 Determinants, Cofactors, and Adjoints M5-7
M2.2 Shortest-Route Problem Solved using Determinants M5-6
Dynamic Programming M2-2 Matrix of Cofactors and Adjoint M5-8
xii   Contents
M5.4 Finding the Inverse of a Matrix M5-10
Summary M5-11 Glossary M5-11
Key Equations M5-11 Self-Test M5-12
Discussion Questions and Problems M5-12
Bibliography M5-13
Appendix M5.1: Using Excel for Matrix Calculations M5-13
Module 6 Calculus-Based Optimization M6-1
M6.1 Introduction M6-2
M6.2 Slope of a Straight Line M6-2
M6.3 Slope of a Nonlinear Function M6-3
M6.4 Some Common Derivatives M6-5
Second Derivatives M6-6
M6.5 Maximum and Minimum M6-6
M6.6 Applications M6-8
Economic Order Quantity M6-8
Total Revenue M6-9
Summary M6-10 Glossary M6-10
Key Equations M6-10 Solved Problem M6-11
Self-Test M6-11 Discussion Questions and
Problems M6-12 Bibliography M6-12
Module 7 Linear Programming: The Simplex
Method M7-1
M7.1 Introduction M7-2
M7.2 How to Set Up the Initial Simplex
Solution M7-2
Converting the Constraints to Equations M7-3
Finding an Initial Solution Algebraically M7-3
The First Simplex Tableau M7-4
M7.3 Simplex Solution Procedures M7-8
M7.4 The Second Simplex Tableau M7-9
Interpreting the Second Tableau M7-12
M7.5 Developing the Third Tableau M7-13
M7.6 Review of Procedures for Solving LP
Maximization Problems M7-16
M7.7 Surplus and Artificial Variables M7-16
Surplus Variables M7-17
Artificial Variables M7-17
Surplus and Artificial Variables in the Objective
Function M7-18
M7.8 Solving Minimization Problems M7-18
The Muddy River Chemical Company
Example M7-18
Graphical Analysis M7-19
Converting the Constraints and Objective
Function M7-20
Rules of the Simplex Method for Minimization
Problems M7-21
First Simplex Tableau for the Muddy River
Chemical Corporation Problem M7-21
Developing a Second Tableau M7-23
Developing a Third Tableau M7-24
Fourth Tableau for the Muddy River Chemical
Corporation Problem M7-26
M7.9 Review of Procedures for Solving LP
Minimization Problems M7-27
M7.10 Special Cases M7-28
Infeasibility M7-28
Unbounded Solutions M7-28
Degeneracy M7-29
More Than One Optimal Solution M7-30
M7.11 Sensitivity Analysis with the Simplex
Tableau M7-30
High Note Sound Company Revisited M7-30
Changes in the Objective Function
Coefficients M7-31
Changes in Resources or RHS Values M7-33
M7.12 The Dual M7-35
Dual Formulation Procedures M7-37
Solving the Dual of the High Note Sound
Company Problem M7-37
M7.13 Karmarkar’s Algorithm M7-39
Summary M7-39 Glossary M7-39
Key Equation M7-40 Solved Problems M7-41
Self-Test M7-44 Discussion Questions and
Problems M7-45 Bibliography M7-53
Module 8 Transportation, Assignment, and ­Network
Algorithms M8-1
M8.1 Introduction M8-2
M8.2 The Transportation Algorithm M8-2
Developing an Initial Solution: Northwest Corner
Rule M8-2
Stepping-Stone Method: Finding a Least-Cost
Solution M8-4
M8.3 Special Situations with the Transportation
Algorithm M8-9
Unbalanced Transportation Problems M8-9
Degeneracy in Transportation Problems M8-10
More Than One Optimal Solution M8-13
Maximization Transportation Problems M8-13
Unacceptable or Prohibited Routes M8-13
Other Transportation Methods M8-13
M8.4 The Assignment Algorithm M8-13
The Hungarian Method (Flood’s
Technique) M8-14
Making the Final Assignment M8-18
M8.5 Special Situations with the Assignment
Algorithm M8-18
Unbalanced Assignment Problems M8-18
Maximization Assignment Problems M8-19
M8.6 Maximal-Flow Problem M8-20
Maximal-Flow Technique M8-20
M8.7 Shortest-Route Problem M8-23
Shortest-Route Technique M8-23
Summary M8-25 Glossary M8-25
Solved Problems M8-26 Self-Test M8-32
Discussion Questions and Problems M8-33
Cases M8-42 Bibliography M8-42
 Preface

Overview

Welcome to the twelfth edition of Quantitative Analysis for Management. Our goal is to provide
undergraduate and graduate students with a genuine foundation in business analytics, quantitative
methods, and management science. In doing so, we owe thanks to the hundreds of users and scores
of reviewers who have provided invaluable counsel and pedagogical insight for more than 30 years.
To help students connect how the techniques presented in this book apply in the real world,
computer-based applications and examples are a major focus of this edition. Mathematical ­models,
with all the necessary assumptions, are presented in a clear and “plain-English” manner. The ensuing
solution procedures are then applied to example problems alongside step-by-step ­“how-to” instruc-
tions. We have found this method of presentation to be very effective and students are very apprecia-
tive of this approach. In places where the mathematical computations are intricate, the details are
presented in such a manner that the instructor can omit these sections without interrupting the flow
of material. The use of computer software enables the instructor to focus on the managerial problem
and spend less time on the details of the algorithms. Computer output is provided for many examples
throughout the book.
The only mathematical prerequisite for this textbook is algebra. One chapter on probability and
another on regression analysis provide introductory coverage on these topics. We employ standard
notation, terminology, and equations throughout the book. Careful explanation is provided for the
mathematical notation and equations that are used.

New to This Edition

● An introduction to business analytics is provided.

● Excel 2013 is incorporated throughout the chapters.
● The transportation, assignment, and network models have been combined into one chapter
focused on modeling with linear programming.
● Specialized algorithms for the transportation, assignment, and network methods have been
combined into Online Module 8.
● New examples, over 25 problems, 8 QA in Action applications, 4 Modeling in the Real World
features, and 3 new Case Studies have been added throughout the textbook. Other problems
and Case Studies have been updated.

xiii
xiv   Preface

Special Features

Many features have been popular in previous editions of this textbook, and they have been updated
and expanded in this edition. They include the following:

● Modeling in the Real World boxes demonstrate the application of the quantitative analysis
approach to every technique discussed in the book. Four new ones have been added.
● Procedure boxes summarize the more complex quantitative techniques, presenting them as a
series of easily understandable steps.
● Margin notes highlight the important topics in the text.
● History boxes provide interesting asides related to the development of techniques and the
­people who originated them.
● QA in Action boxes illustrate how real organizations have used quantitative analysis to solve
problems. Several new QA in Action boxes have been added.
● Solved Problems, included at the end of each chapter, serve as models for students in solving
their own homework problems.
● Discussion Questions are presented at the end of each chapter to test the student’s understand-
ing of the concepts covered and definitions provided in the chapter.
● Problems included in every chapter are applications oriented and test the student’s ability to
solve exam-type problems. They are graded by level of difficulty: introductory (one bullet),
moderate (two bullets), and challenging (three bullets). More than 40 new problems have been
added.
● Internet Homework Problems provide additional problems for students to work. They are
available on the Companion Website.
● Self-Tests allow students to test their knowledge of important terms and concepts in prepara-
tion for quizzes and examinations.
● Case Studies, at the end of each chapter, provide additional challenging managerial
applications.
● Glossaries, at the end of each chapter, define important terms.
● Key Equations, provided at the end of each chapter, list the equations presented in that
chapter.
● End-of-chapter bibliographies provide a current selection of more advanced books and
articles.
● The software POM-QM for Windows uses the full capabilities of Windows to solve quantita-
tive analysis problems.
● Excel QM and Excel 2013 are used to solve problems throughout the book.
● Data files with Excel spreadsheets and POM-QM for Windows files containing all the
­examples in the textbook are available for students to download from the Companion Website.
Instructors can download these plus additional files containing computer solutions to the rel-
evant end-of-chapter problems from the Instructor Resource Center Web site.
● Online modules provide additional coverage of topics in quantitative analysis.
● The Companion Website, at www.pearsonhighered.com/render, provides the online modules,
additional problems, cases, and other material for almost every chapter.

Significant Changes to the Twelfth Edition

In the twelfth edition, we have introduced Excel 2013 in all of the chapters. Screenshots are
­integrated in the appropriate sections so that students can easily learn how to use Excel for the
calculations. The Excel QM add-in is used with Excel 2013 allowing students with limited Excel
experience to easily perform the necessary calculations. This also allows students to improve their
Excel skills as they see the formulas automatically written in Excel QM.
 Preface    xv

From the Companion Website, students can access files for all of the examples used in the
textbook in Excel 2013, QM for Windows, and Excel QM. Other files with all of the end-of-chapter
problems involving these software tools are available to the instructors.
Business analytics, one of the hottest topics in the business world, makes extensive use of the
models in this book. A discussion of the business analytics categories is provided, and the relevant
management science techniques are placed into the appropriate category.
The transportation, transshipment, assignment, and network models have been combined into
one chapter focused on modeling with linear programming. The specialized algorithms for these
models have been combined into a new online module.
Examples and problems have been updated, and many new ones have been added. New screen-
shots are provided for almost all of the examples in the book. A brief summary of the other changes
in each chapter are presented here.

Chapter 1 Introduction to Quantitative Analysis. A section on business analytics has been added,
the self-test has been modified, and two new problems were added.

Chapter 2 Probability Concepts and Applications. The presentation of the fundamental concepts
of probability has been significantly modified and reorganized. Two new problems have been added.

Chapter 3 Decision Analysis. A more thorough discussion of minimization problems with payoff
tables has been provided in a new section. The presentation of software usage with payoff tables
was expanded. Two new problems were added.

Chapter 4 Regression Models. The use of different software packages for regression analysis has
been moved to the body of the textbook instead of the appendix. Five new problems and one new
QA in Action item have been added.

Chapter 5 Forecasting. The presentation of time-series forecasting models was significantly

revised to bring the focus on identifying the appropriate technique to use based on which time-
series components are present in the data. Five new problems were added, and the cases have been
updated.

Chapter 6 Inventory Control Models. The four steps of the Kanban production process have been
updated and clarified. Two new QA in Action boxes, four new problems, and one new Modeling in
the Real World have been added.

Chapter 7 Linear Programming Models: Graphical and Computer Methods. More discussion of
Solver is presented. A new Modeling in the Real World item was added, and the solved problems
have been revised.

Chapter 8 Linear Programming Applications. The transportation model was moved to Chapter 9,
and a new section describing other models has been added. The self-test questions were modified;
one new problem, one new QA in Action summary, and a new case study have been added.

Chapter 9 Transportation, Assignment, and Network Models. This new chapter presents all of
the distribution, assignment, and network models that were previously in two separate chapters.
The modeling approach is emphasized, while the special-purpose algorithms were moved to a new
online module. A new case study, Northeastern Airlines, has also been added.

Chapter 10 Integer Programming, Goal Programming, and Nonlinear Programming. The use of
Excel 2013 and the new screen shots were the only changes to this chapter.

Chapter 11 Project Management. Two new end-of-chapter problems and three new QA in Action
boxes have been added.

Chapter 12 Waiting Lines and Queuing Theory Models. Two new end-of-chapter problems were
added.

Chapter 13 Simulation Modeling. One new Modeling in the Real World vignette, one new QA in
Action box, and a new case study have been added.
xvi   Preface

Chapter 14 Markov Analysis. One new QA in Action box and two new end-of-chapter problems
have been added.

Chapter 15 Statistical Quality Control. One new Modeling in the Real World vignette, one new
QA in Action box, and two new end-of-chapter problems have been added.

Modules 1–8 The only significant change to the modules is the addition of Module 8:
Transportation, Assignment, and Network Algorithms. This includes the special-purpose algorithms
for the transportation, assignment, and network models.

Online Modules

To streamline the book, eight topics are contained in modules available on the Companion Website
for the book.
1. Analytic Hierarchy Process
2. Dynamic Programming
3. Decision Theory and the Normal Distribution
4. Game Theory
5. Mathematical Tools: Determinants and Matrices
6. Calculus-Based Optimization
7. Linear Programming: The Simplex Method
8. Transportation, Assignment, and Network Algorithms

Software

Excel 2013 Instructions and screen captures are provided for, using Excel 2013, throughout the
book. Instructions for activating the Solver and Analysis ToolPak add-ins in Excel 2013 are pro-
vided in an appendix. The use of Excel is more prevalent in this edition of the book than in previous
editions.

Excel QM Using the Excel QM add-in that is available on the Companion Website makes the use
of Excel even easier. Students with limited Excel experience can use this and learn from the formu-
las that are automatically provided by Excel QM. This is used in many of the chapters.

POM-QM for Windows This software, developed by Professor Howard Weiss, is available to
students at the Companion Website. This is very user-friendly and has proven to be a very popular
software tool for users of this textbook. Modules are available for every major problem type pre-
sented in the textbook.

Companion Website

The Companion Website, located at www.pearsonhighered.com/render, contains a variety of mate-

rials to help students master the material in this course. These include the following:

Modules There are eight modules containing additional material that the instructor may choose to
include in the course. Students can download these from the Companion Website.

Files for Examples in Excel, Excel QM, and POM-QM for Windows Students can down-
load the files that were used for examples throughout the book. This helps them become familiar
with the software, and it helps them understand the input and formulas necessary for working the
examples.
 Preface    xvii

Internet Homework Problems In addition to the end-of-chapter problems in the textbook,

there are additional problems that instructors may assign. These are available for download at the
Companion Website.

Internet Case Studies Additional case studies are available for most chapters.

POM-QM for Windows Developed by Howard Weiss, this very user-friendly software can be
used to solve most of the homework problems in the text.

Excel QM This Excel add-in will automatically create worksheets for solving problems. This is
very helpful for instructors who choose to use Excel in their classes but who may have students
with limited Excel experience. Students can learn by examining the formulas that have been cre-
ated, and by seeing the inputs that are automatically generated for using the Solver add-in for linear
programming.

Instructor Resources

● Instructor Resource Center: The Instructor Resource Center contains the electronic files
for the test bank, PowerPoint slides, the Solutions Manual, and data files for both Excel
and POM-QM for Windows for all relevant examples and end-of-chapter problems.
(www.pearsonhighered.com/render).
● Register, Redeem, Login: At www.pearsonhighered.com/irc, instructors can access a variety
of print, media, and presentation resources that are available with this text in downloadable,
digital format. For most texts, resources are also available for course management platforms
such as Blackboard, WebCT, and Course Compass.
● Need help? Our dedicated technical support team is ready to assist instructors with questions
about the media supplements that accompany this text. Visit http://247pearsoned.custhelp
.com/ for answers to frequently asked questions and toll-free user support phone numbers.
The supplements are available to adopting instructors. Detailed descriptions are provided on
the Instructor Resource Center.

Instructor’s Solutions Manual The Instructor’s Solutions Manual, updated by the authors, is
available for download from the Instructor Resource Center. Solutions to all Internet Homework
Problems and Internet Case Studies are also included in the manual.

PowerPoint Presentation An extensive set of PowerPoint slides is available for download from
the Instructor Resource Center.

Test Bank The updated test bank is available for download from the Instructor Resource Center.

TestGen The computerized TestGen package allows instructors to customize, save, and generate
classroom tests. The test program permits instructors to edit, add, or delete questions from the test bank;
edit existing graphics and create new graphics; analyze test results; and organize a database of test and
student results. This software allows the instructors to benefit from the extensive flexibility and ease of
use. It provides many options for organizing and displaying tests, along with search and sort features.
The software and the test banks can be downloaded at www.pearsonhighered.com/render.

Acknowledgments

We gratefully thank the users of previous editions and the reviewers who provided valuable sugges-
tions and ideas for this edition. Your feedback is valuable in our efforts for continuous improvement.
The continued success of Quantitative Analysis for Management is a direct result of instructor and
student feedback, which is truly appreciated.
The authors are indebted to many people who have made important contributions to this pro-
ject. Special thanks go to Professors Faizul Huq, F. Bruce Simmons III, Khala Chand Seal, Victor E.
Sower, Michael Ballot, Curtis P. McLaughlin, and Zbigniew H. Przanyski for their contributions to
the excellent cases included in this edition.
xviii   Preface

We thank Howard Weiss for providing Excel QM and POM-QM for Windows, two of the most
outstanding packages in the field of quantitative methods. We would also like to thank the review-
ers who have helped to make this textbook the most widely used one in the field of quantitative
analysis:

Stephen Achtenhagen, San Jose University Shahriar Mostashari, Campbell University

M. Jill Austin, Middle Tennessee State University
Raju Balakrishnan, Clemson University
Hooshang Beheshti, Radford University
Jason Bergner, University of Central Missouri
Bruce K. Blaylock, Radford University
Rodney L. Carlson, Tennessee Technological University
Edward Chu, California State University, Dominguez Hills
John Cozzolino, Pace University–Pleasantville
Ozgun C. Demirag, Penn State–Erie
Shad Dowlatshahi, University of Wisconsin, Platteville
Ike Ehie, Southeast Missouri State University
Richard Ehrhardt, University of North Carolina–Greensboro
Sean Eom, Southeast Missouri State University
Ephrem Eyob, Virginia State University
Mira Ezvan, Lindenwood University
Wade Ferguson, Western Kentucky University
Robert Fiore, Springfield College
Frank G. Forst, Loyola University of Chicago
Ed Gillenwater, University of Mississippi
Stephen H. Goodman, University of Central Florida
Irwin Greenberg, George Mason University
Nicholas G. Hall, Ohio State University
Robert R. Hill, University of Houston–Clear Lake
Gordon Jacox, Weber State University
Bharat Jain, Towson University
Vassilios Karavas, University of Massachusetts Amherst
Darlene R. Lanier, Louisiana State University
Kenneth D. Lawrence, New Jersey Institute of Technology
Jooh Lee, Rowan College
Richard D. Legault, University of Massachusetts–Dartmouth
Douglas Lonnstrom, Siena College
Daniel McNamara, University of St. Thomas
Peter Miller, University of Windsor
Ralph Miller, California State Polytechnic University
David Murphy, Boston College
Robert C. Myers, University of Louisville
Barin Nag, Towson State University
Nizam S. Najd, Oklahoma State University
Harvey Nye, Central State University
Alan D. Olinsky, Bryant College
Savas Ozatalay, Widener University
Young Park, California University of Pennsylvania
Cy Peebles, Eastern Kentucky University
Yusheng Peng, Brooklyn College
Dane K. Peterson, Southwest Missouri State University
Sanjeev Phukan, Bemidji State University
Ranga Ramasesh, Texas Christian University
William Rife, West Virginia University
Bonnie Robeson, Johns Hopkins University
Grover Rodich, Portland State University
Vijay Shah, West Virginia University–Parkersburg
L. Wayne Shell, Nicholls State University
Thomas Sloan, University of Massachusetts–Lowell
Richard Slovacek, North Central College
Alan D. Smith, Robert Morris University
John Swearingen, Bryant College
F. S. Tanaka, Slippery Rock State University
Jack Taylor, Portland State University
Madeline Thimmes, Utah State University
M. Keith Thomas, Olivet College
Andrew Tiger, Southeastern Oklahoma State University
Chris Vertullo, Marist College
James Vigen, California State University, Bakersfield
William Webster, University of Texas at San Antonio
Larry Weinstein, Eastern Kentucky University
Fred E. Williams, University of Michigan–Flint
Mela Wyeth, Charleston Southern University
Oliver Yu, San Jose State University

We are very grateful to all the people at Pearson who worked so hard to make this book a suc-
cess. These include Donna Battista, editor in chief; Mary Kate Murray, senior project manager; and
Kathryn Dinovo, senior production project manager. We are also grateful to Tracy Duff, our project
manager at PreMediaGlobal. We are extremely thankful to Annie Puciloski for her tireless work in
error checking the textbook. Thank you all!

Barry Render
brender@rollins.edu

Ralph Stair

Michael Hanna
hanna@uhcl.edu

Trevor S. Hale
halet@uhd.edu
 Chapter 1
Introduction to
Quantitative Analysis

Learning Objectives
After completing this chapter, students will be able to:

1. Describe the quantitative analysis approach.
2. Understand the application of quantitative analysis
in a real situation.
3. Describe the three categories of business analytics.
4. Describe the use of modeling in quantitative
analysis.
5. Use computers and spreadsheet models
to perform quantitative analysis.
6. Discuss possible problems in using quantitative
analysis.
7. Perform a break-even analysis.

Chapter Outline
1.1 Introduction 1.6 The Role of Computers and Spreadsheet Models
1.2 What Is Quantitative Analysis? in the Quantitative Analysis Approach
1.3 Business Analytics 1.7 Possible Problems in the Quantitative Analysis
Approach
1.4 The Quantitative Analysis Approach
1.8 Implementation—Not Just the Final Step
1.5 How to Develop a Quantitative Analysis Model

Summary • Glossary • Key Equations • Self-Test • Discussion Questions and Problems • Case Study: Food and
Beverages at Southwestern University Football Games • Bibliography

1
2   Chapter 1 • Introduction to Quantitative Analysis
1.1 Introduction
1.2 What Is Quantitative Analysis?
Quantitative analysis uses a
scientific approach to decision
making.
Both qualitative and quantitative
factors must be considered.
People have been using mathematical tools to help solve problems for thousands of years; how-
ever, the formal study and application of quantitative techniques to practical decision making
is largely a product of the twentieth century. The techniques we study in this book have been
applied successfully to an increasingly wide variety of complex problems in business, govern-
ment, health care, education, and many other areas. Many such successful uses are discussed
throughout this book.
It isn’t enough, though, just to know the mathematics of how a particular quantitative tech-
nique works; you must also be familiar with the limitations, assumptions, and specific applica-
bility of the technique. The successful use of quantitative techniques usually results in a solution
that is timely, accurate, flexible, economical, reliable, and easy to understand and use.
In this and other chapters, there are QA (Quantitative Analysis) in Action boxes that provide
success stories on the applications of management science. They show how organizations have
used quantitative techniques to make better decisions, operate more efficiently, and generate more
profits. Taco Bell has reported saving over $150 million with better forecasting of demand and bet-
ter scheduling of employees. NBC television increased advertising revenue by over $200 million
between 1996 and 2000 by using a model to help develop sales plans for advertisers. Continental
Airlines saves over $40 million per year by using mathematical models to quickly recover from
disruptions caused by weather delays and other factors. These are but a few of the many companies
discussed in QA in Action boxes throughout this book.
To see other examples of how companies use quantitative analysis or operations research
methods to operate better and more efficiently, go to the website www.scienceofbetter.org. The
success stories presented there are categorized by industry, functional area, and benefit. These
success stories illustrate how operations research is truly the “science of better.”
Quantitative analysis is the scientific approach to managerial decision making. This field of
study has several different names including quantitative analysis, management science, and op-
erations research. These terms are used interchangeably in this book. Also, many of the quantita-
tive analysis methods presented in this book are used extensively in business analytics.
Whim, emotions, and guesswork are not part of the quantitative analysis approach. The ap-
proach starts with data. Like raw material for a factory, these data are manipulated or processed
into information that is valuable to people making decisions. This processing and manipulating
of raw data into meaningful information is the heart of quantitative analysis. Computers have
been instrumental in the increasing use of quantitative analysis.
In solving a problem, managers must consider both qualitative and quantitative factors. For
example, we might consider several different investment alternatives, including certificates of
deposit at a bank, investments in the stock market, and an investment in real estate. We can use
quantitative analysis to determine how much our investment will be worth in the future when de-
posited at a bank at a given interest rate for a certain number of years. Quantitative analysis can
also be used in computing financial ratios from the balance sheets for several companies whose
stock we are considering. Some real estate companies have developed computer programs that
use quantitative analysis to analyze cash flows and rates of return for investment property.
In addition to quantitative analysis, qualitative factors should also be considered. The
weather, state and federal legislation, new technological breakthroughs, the outcome of an elec-
tion, and so on may all be factors that are difficult to quantify.
Because of the importance of qualitative factors, the role of quantitative analysis in the
decision-making process can vary. When there is a lack of qualitative factors and when
the ­problem, model, and input data remain the same, the results of quantitative analysis can
­automate the decision-making process. For example, some companies use quantitative inventory
models to determine automatically when to order additional new materials. In most cases, how-
ever, quantitative analysis will be an aid to the decision-making process. The results of quantita-
tive analysis will be combined with other (qualitative) information in making decisions.
Quantitative analysis has been particularly important in many areas of management. The
field of production management, which evolved into production/operations management (POM)
 1.3
1.3 Business Analytics
The three categories of business
analytics are descriptive,
predictive, and prescriptive.
Table 1.1
Business Analytics and
Quantitative Analysis
Models
Business Analytics   3
as society became more service oriented, uses quantitative analysis extensively. While POM
focuses on internal operations of a company, the field of supply chain management takes a more
complete view of the business and considers the entire process of obtaining materials from sup-
pliers, using the materials to develop products, and distributing these products to the final con-
sumers. Supply chain management makes extensive use of many management science models.
Another area of management that could not exist without the quantitative analysis methods pre-
sented in this book, and perhaps the hottest discipline in business today, is business analytics.
Business analytics is a data-driven approach to decision making that allows companies to make
better decisions. The study of business analytics involves the use of large amounts of data, which
means that information technology related to the management of the data is very important. Sta-
tistical and quantitative analysis are used to analyze the data and provide useful information to
the decision maker.
Business analytics is often broken into three categories: descriptive, predictive, and pre-
scriptive. Descriptive analytics involves the study and consolidation of historical data for a
business and an industry. It helps a company measure how it has performed in the past and how
it is performing now. Predictive analytics is aimed at forecasting future outcomes based on
patterns in the past data. Statistical and mathematical models are used extensively for this pur-
pose. Prescriptive analytics involves the use of optimization methods to provide new and better
ways to operate based on specific business objectives. The optimization models presented in this
book are very important to prescriptive analytics. While there are only three business analytics
categories, many business decisions are made based on information obtained from two or three
of these categories.
Many of the quantitative analysis techniques presented in the chapters of this book are used
extensively in business analytics. Table 1.1 highlights the three categories of business analytics,
and it places many of the topics and chapters in this book in the most relevant category. Keep in
mind that some topics (and certainly some chapters with multiple concepts and models) could
possibly be placed in a different category. Some of the material in this book could overlap two or
even three of these categories. Nevertheless, all of these quantitative analysis techniques are very
important tools in business analytics.
Quantitative Analysis Technique
Business Analytics Category (Chapter)
Descriptive analytics ● Statistical measures such as means and standard
deviations (Chapter 2)
● Statistical quality control (Chapter 15)
Predictive analytics ● Decision analysis and decision trees (Chapter 3)
● Regression models (Chapter 4)
● Forecasting (Chapter 5)
● Project scheduling (Chapter 11)
● Waiting line models (Chapter 12)
● Simulation (Chapter 13)
● Markov analysis (Chapter 14)
Prescriptive analytics ● Inventory models such as the economic order
quantity (Chapter 6)
● Linear programming (Chapters 7, 8)
● Transportation and assignment models (Chapter 9)
● Integer programming, goal programming, and
nonlinear programming (Chapter 10)
● Network models (Chapter 9)
4   Chapter 1 • Introduction to Quantitative Analysis

History The Origin of Quantitative Analysis

Q uantitative analysis has been in existence since the beginning

of recorded history, but it was Frederick W. Taylor who in the early
1900s pioneered the principles of the scientific approach to man-
agement. During World War II, many new scientific and quantita-
tive techniques were developed to assist the military. These new
developments were so successful that after World War II many
companies started using similar techniques in managerial decision
making and planning. Today, many organizations employ a staff
of operations research or management science personnel or con-
sultants to apply the principles of scientific management to prob-
lems and opportunities.
The origin of many of the techniques discussed in this book
can be traced to individuals and organizations that have applied
the principles of scientific management first developed by Taylor;
they are discussed in History boxes scattered throughout the book.

1.4 The Quantitative Analysis Approach

Defining the problem can be the The quantitative analysis approach consists of defining a problem, developing a model, acquir-
most important step. ing input data, developing a solution, testing the solution, analyzing the results, and implement-
ing the results (see Figure 1.1). One step does not have to be finished completely before the
Concentrate on only a few
problems. next is started; in most cases, one or more of these steps will be modified to some extent before
the final results are implemented. This would cause all of the subsequent steps to be changed.
Figure 1.1 In some cases, testing the solution might reveal that the model or the input data are not correct.
The Quantitative This would mean that all steps that follow defining the problem would need to be modified.
Analysis Approach
Defining the Problem
Defining
the Problem
The first step in the quantitative approach is to develop a clear, concise statement of the
problem. This statement will give direction and meaning to the following steps.
In many cases, defining the problem is the most important and the most difficult step. It is
Developing essential to go beyond the symptoms of the problem and identify the true causes. One problem
a Model may be related to other problems; solving one problem without regard to other related problems
can make the entire situation worse. Thus, it is important to analyze how the solution to one
problem affects other problems or the situation in general.
Acquiring It is likely that an organization will have several problems. However, a quantitative analysis
Input Data
group usually cannot deal with all of an organization’s problems at one time. Thus, it is usually
necessary to concentrate on only a few problems. For most companies, this means selecting
Developing those problems whose solutions will result in the greatest increase in profits or reduction in costs
a Solution to the company. The importance of selecting the right problems to solve cannot be overempha-
sized. Experience has shown that bad problem definition is a major reason for failure of manage-
ment science or operations research groups to serve their organizations well.
Testing the When the problem is difficult to quantify, it may be necessary to develop specific, measur-
Solution
able objectives. A problem might be inadequate health care delivery in a hospital. The objectives
might be to increase the number of beds, reduce the average number of days a patient spends
Analyzing
in the hospital, increase the physician-to-patient ratio, and so on. When objectives are used,
the Results however, the real problem should be kept in mind. It is important to avoid obtaining specific and
measurable objectives that may not solve the real problem.

Implementing Developing a Model

the Results
The types of models include
physical, scale, schematic, and
mathematical models.
Once we select the problem to be analyzed, the next step is to develop a model. Simply stated, a
model is a representation (usually mathematical) of a situation.
Even though you might not have been aware of it, you have been using models most of your
life. You may have developed models about people’s behavior. Your model might be that friend-
ship is based on reciprocity, an exchange of favors. If you need a favor such as a small loan, your
model would suggest that you ask a good friend.
Of course, there are many other types of models. Architects sometimes make a physical model
of a building that they will construct. Engineers develop scale models of chemical plants, called
pilot plants. A schematic model is a picture, drawing, or chart of reality. Automobiles, lawn mow-
ers, gears, fans, typewriters, and numerous other devices have schematic models (drawings and
 1.4 The Quantitative Analysis Approach   5

In Action Operations Research and Oil Spills

O perations researchers and decision scientists have been in-

vestigating oil spill response and alleviation strategies since long
before the BP oil spill disaster of 2010 in the Gulf of Mexico. A
four-phase classification system has emerged for disaster re-
sponse research: mitigation, preparedness, response, and recov-
ery. Mitigation means reducing the probability that a disaster will
occur and implementing robust, forward-thinking strategies to
reduce the effects of a disaster that does occur. Preparedness is
any and all organization efforts that happen a priori to a disaster.
Response is the location, allocation, and overall coordination of
resources and procedures during the disaster that are aimed at
preserving life and property. Recovery is the set of actions taken
to minimize the long-term impacts of a particular disaster after
the immediate situation has stabilized.
Many quantitative tools have helped in areas of risk analysis,
insurance, logistical preparation and supply management, evacu-
ation planning, and development of communication systems.
­Recent research has shown that while many strides and discover-
ies have been made, much research is still needed. Certainly each
of the four disaster response areas could benefit from additional
research, but recovery seems to be of particular concern and per-
haps the most promising for future research.
Source: Based on N. Altay and W. Green. “OR/MS Research in Disaster
­Operations Management,” European Journal of Operational Research 175, 1
(2006): 475–493.

pictures) that reveal how these devices work. What sets quantitative analysis apart from other
techniques is that the models that are used are mathematical. A mathematical model is a set of
mathematical relationships. In most cases, these relationships are expressed in equations and in-
equalities, as they are in a spreadsheet model that computes sums, averages, or standard deviations.
Although there is considerable flexibility in the development of models, most of the models
presented in this book contain one or more variables and parameters. A variable, as the name
implies, is a measurable quantity that may vary or is subject to change. Variables can be control-
lable or uncontrollable. A controllable variable is also called a decision variable. An example
would be how many inventory items to order. A parameter is a measurable quantity that is
inherent in the problem. The cost of placing an order for more inventory items is an example of
a parameter. In most cases, variables are unknown quantities, while parameters are known quan-
tities. All models should be developed carefully. They should be solvable, realistic, and easy to
understand and modify, and the required input data should be obtainable. The model developer
has to be careful to include the appropriate amount of detail to be solvable yet realistic.

Acquiring Input Data

Garbage in, garbage out means
that improper data will result in
misleading results.
Once we have developed a model, we must obtain the data that are used in the model (input
data). Obtaining accurate data for the model is essential; even if the model is a perfect represen-
tation of reality, improper data will result in misleading results. This situation is called garbage
in, garbage out. For a larger problem, collecting accurate data can be one of the most difficult
steps in performing quantitative analysis.
There are a number of sources that can be used in collecting data. In some cases, company
reports and documents can be used to obtain the necessary data. Another source is interviews
with employees or other persons related to the firm. These individuals can sometimes provide
excellent information, and their experience and judgment can be invaluable. A production super-
visor, for example, might be able to tell you with a great degree of accuracy the amount of time
it takes to produce a particular product. Sampling and direct measurement provide other sources
of data for the model. You may need to know how many pounds of raw material are used in
producing a new photochemical product. This information can be obtained by going to the plant
and actually measuring with scales the amount of raw material that is being used. In other cases,
statistical sampling procedures can be used to obtain data.

Developing a Solution
Developing a solution involves manipulating the model to arrive at the best (optimal) solution
to the problem. In some cases, this requires that an equation be solved for the best decision. In
other cases, you can use a trial and error method, trying various approaches and picking the one
that results in the best decision. For some problems, you may wish to try all possible values for
6   Chapter 1 • Introduction to Quantitative Analysis
The input data and model
determine the accuracy of the
solution.
Testing the data and model
is done before the results are
analyzed.
Sensitivity analysis determines
how the solutions will change
with a different model or
input data.
the variables in the model to arrive at the best decision. This is called complete enumeration.
This book also shows you how to solve very difficult and complex problems by repeating a few
simple steps until you find the best solution. A series of steps or procedures that are repeated is
called an algorithm, named after Algorismus, an Arabic mathematician of the ninth century.
The accuracy of a solution depends on the accuracy of the input data and the model. If the
input data are accurate to only two significant digits, then the results can be accurate to only two
significant digits. For example, the results of dividing 2.6 by 1.4 should be 1.9, not 1.857142857.
Testing the Solution
Before a solution can be analyzed and implemented, it needs to be tested completely. Because
the solution depends on the input data and the model, both require testing.
Testing the input data and the model includes determining the accuracy and completeness of
the data used by the model. Inaccurate data will lead to an inaccurate solution. There are several
ways to test input data. One method of testing the data is to collect additional data from a differ-
ent source. If the original data were collected using interviews, perhaps some additional data can
be collected by direct measurement or sampling. These additional data can then be compared
with the original data, and statistical tests can be employed to determine whether there are dif-
ferences between the original data and the additional data. If there are significant differences,
more effort is required to obtain accurate input data. If the data are accurate but the results are
inconsistent with the problem, the model may not be appropriate. The model can be checked to
make sure that it is logical and represents the real situation.
Although most of the quantitative techniques discussed in this book have been computer-
ized, you will probably be required to solve a number of problems by hand. To help detect both
logical and computational mistakes, you should check the results to make sure that they are con-
sistent with the structure of the problem. For example, (1.96)(301.7) is close to (2)(300), which
is equal to 600. If your computations are significantly different from 600, you know you have
made a mistake.
Analyzing the Results and Sensitivity Analysis
Analyzing the results starts with determining the implications of the solution. In most cases, a
solution to a problem will result in some kind of action or change in the way an organization is
operating. The implications of these actions or changes must be determined and analyzed before
the results are implemented.
Because a model is only an approximation of reality, the sensitivity of the solution to
changes in the model and input data is a very important part of analyzing the results. This type
of analysis is called sensitivity analysis or postoptimality analysis. It determines how much the
solution will change if there were changes in the model or the input data. When the solution is
sensitive to changes in the input data and the model specification, additional testing should be
performed to make sure that the model and input data are accurate and valid. If the model or data
are wrong, the solution could be wrong, resulting in financial losses or reduced profits.
The importance of sensitivity analysis cannot be overemphasized. Because input data may
not always be accurate or model assumptions may not be completely appropriate, sensitivity
analysis can become an important part of the quantitative analysis approach. Most of the chap-
ters in the book cover the use of sensitivity analysis as part of the decision-making and problem-
solving process.
Implementing the Results
The final step is to implement the results. This is the process of incorporating the solution into
the company. This can be much more difficult than you would imagine. Even if the solution is
optimal and will result in millions of dollars in additional profits, if managers resist the new so-
lution, all of the efforts of the analysis are of no value. Experience has shown that a large number
of quantitative analysis teams have failed in their efforts because they have failed to implement a
good, workable solution properly.
After the solution has been implemented, it should be closely monitored. Over time, there
may be numerous changes that call for modifications of the original solution. A changing econ-
omy, fluctuating demand, and model enhancements requested by managers and decision makers
are only a few examples of changes that might require the analysis to be modified.
 1.4 The Quantitative Analysis Approach   7

Railroad Uses Optimization

Modeling in the Real World ­Models to Save Millions

Defining
Defining the Problem
the Problem CSX Transportation, Inc., has 35,000 employees and annual revenue of $11 billion. It provides rail freight
services to 23 states east of the Mississippi River, as well as parts of Canada. CSX receives orders for rail
delivery service and must send empty railcars to customer locations. Moving these empty railcars results
in hundreds of thousands of empty-car miles every day. If allocations of railcars to customers is not done
properly, problems arise from excess costs, wear and tear on the system, and congestion on the tracks and
at rail yards.

Developing Developing a Model

a Model In order to provide a more efficient scheduling system, CSX spent 2 years and $5 million developing its
Dynamic Car-Planning (DCP) system. This model will minimize costs, including car travel distance, car han-
dling costs at the rail yards, car travel time, and costs for being early or late. It does this while at the same
time filling all orders, making sure the right type of car is assigned to the job, and getting the car to the
destination in the allowable time.

Acquiring Acquiring Input Data

Input Data In developing the model, the company used historical data for testing. In running the model, the DCP uses
three external sources to obtain information on the customer car orders, the available cars of the type
needed, and the transit-time standards. In addition to these, two internal input sources provide informa-
tion on customer priorities and preferences and on cost parameters.

Developing Developing a Solution

a Solution This model takes about 1 minute to load but only 10 seconds to solve. Because supply and demand are
constantly changing, the model is run about every 15 minutes. This allows final decisions to be delayed
until absolutely necessary.

Testing the Testing the Solution

Solution The model was validated and verified using existing data. The solutions found using the DCP were found
to be very good compared to assignments made without DCP.

Analyzing Analyzing the Results

the Results Since the implementation of DCP in 1997, more than $51 million has been saved annually. Due to the
­improved efficiency, it is estimated that CSX avoided spending another $1.4 billion to purchase an addi-
tional 18,000 railcars that would have been needed without DCP. Other benefits include reduced conges-
tion in the rail yards and reduced congestion on the tracks, which are major concerns. This greater efficiency
means that more freight can ship by rail rather than by truck, resulting in significant public benefits. These
benefits include reduced pollution and greenhouse gases, improved highway safety, and reduced road
maintenance costs.

Implementing Implementing the Results

the Results Both senior-level management who championed DCP and key car-distribution experts who supported the
new approach were instrumental in gaining acceptance of the new system and overcoming problems dur-
ing the implementation. The job description of the car distributors was changed from car allocators to cost
technicians. They are responsible for seeing that accurate cost information is entered into DCP, and they
also manage any exceptions that must be made. They were given extensive training on how DCP works so
they could understand and better accept the new system. Due to the success of DCP, other railroads have
implemented similar systems and achieved similar benefits. CSX continues to enhance DCP to make DCP
even more customer friendly and to improve car-order forecasts.

Source: Based on M. F. Gorman, et al. “CSX Railway Uses OR to Cash in on Optimized Equipment Distribution,” Interfaces
40, 1 (January–February 2010): 5–16.
8   Chapter 1 • Introduction to Quantitative Analysis

The Quantitative Analysis Approach and Modeling in the Real World

The quantitative analysis approach is used extensively in the real world. These steps, first seen in
Figure 1.1 and described in this section, are the building blocks of any successful use of quanti-
tative analysis. As seen in our first Modeling in the Real World box, the steps of the quantitative
analysis approach can be used to help a large company such as CSX plan for critical scheduling
needs now and for decades into the future. Throughout this book, you will see how the steps of
the quantitative analysis approach are used to help countries and companies of all sizes save
millions of dollars, plan for the future, increase revenues, and provide higher-quality products
and services. The Modeling in the Real World boxes in every chapter will demonstrate to you the
power and importance of quantitative analysis in solving real problems for real organizations.
Using the steps of quantitative analysis, however, does not guarantee success. These steps must
be applied carefully.

1.5 How to Develop a Quantitative Analysis Model

Developing a model is an important part of the quantitative analysis approach. Let’s see how we
can use the following mathematical model, which represents profit:

Profit = Revenue - Expenses

Expenses include fixed and In many cases, we can express revenues as price per unit multiplied times the number of units
variable costs. sold. Expenses can often be determined by summing fixed costs and variable cost. Variable cost
is often expressed as variable cost per unit multiplied times the number of units. Thus, we can
also express profit in the following mathematical model:

Profit = Revenue - 1Fixed cost + Variable cost2

Profit = 1Selling price per unit21Number of units sold2
- 3Fixed cost + 1Variable cost per unit21Number of units sold24
Profit = sX - 3 f + nX4
Profit = sX - f - nX (1-1)

where
s = selling price per unit
f = fixed cost
n = variable cost per unit
X = number of units sold

The parameters in this model are f, n, and s, as these are inputs that are inherent in the model.
The number of units sold (X) is the decision variable of interest.

Example: Pritchett’s Precious Time Pieces We will use the Bill Pritchett clock repair shop
example to demonstrate the use of mathematical models. Bill’s company, Pritchett’s Precious
Time Pieces, buys, sells, and repairs old clocks and clock parts. Bill sells rebuilt springs for a
price per unit of $8. The fixed cost of the equipment to build the springs is $1,000. The variable
cost per unit is $3 for spring material. In this example,

s = 8
f = 1,000
n = 3

The number of springs sold is X, and our profit model becomes

Profit = +8X - +1,000 - +3X

If sales are 0, Bill will realize a $1,000 loss. If sales are 1,000 units, he will realize a profit
of +4,000 1+4,000 = 1+8211,0002 - +1,000 - 1+3211,00022. See if you can determine the
profit for other values of units sold.
 1.5 How to Develop a Quantitative Analysis Model   9

In addition to the profit models shown here, decision makers are often interested in the
The BEP results in $0 profits. break-even point (BEP). The BEP is the number of units sold that will result in $0 profits. We
set profits equal to $0 and solve for X, the number of units at the BEP:

0 = sX - f - nX

This can be written as

0 = 1s - n2X - f

Solving for X, we have

f = 1s - n2X
f
X =
s - n
This quantity (X) that results in a profit of zero is the BEP, and we now have this model for the BEP:
Fixed cost
BEP =
1Selling price per unit2 - 1Variable cost per unit2
f
BEP =  (1-2)
s - n
For the Pritchett’s Precious Time Pieces example, the BEP can be computed as follows:

BEP = +1,000>1+8 - +32 = 200 units, or springs, at the BEP.

The Advantages of Mathematical Modeling

There are a number of advantages of using mathematical models:
1. Models can accurately represent reality. If properly formulated, a model can be extremely
accurate. A valid model is one that is accurate and correctly represents the problem or sys-
tem under investigation. The profit model in the example is accurate and valid for many
business problems.
2. Models can help a decision maker formulate problems. In the profit model, for example,
a decision maker can determine the important factors or contributors to revenues and
­expenses, such as sales, returns, selling expenses, production costs, and transportation costs.
3. Models can give us insight and information. For example, using the profit model from the
preceding section, we can see what impact changes in revenues and expenses will have on
profits. As discussed in the previous section, studying the impact of changes in a model,
such as a profit model, is called sensitivity analysis.
4. Models can save time and money in decision making and problem solving. It usually takes
less time, effort, and expense to analyze a model. We can use a profit model to analyze the
impact of a new marketing campaign on profits, revenues, and expenses. In most cases,
­using models is faster and less expensive than actually trying a new marketing campaign in
a real business setting and observing the results.
5. A model may be the only way to solve some large or complex problems in a timely fash-
ion. A large company, for example, may produce literally thousands of sizes of nuts, bolts,
and fasteners. The company may want to make the highest profits possible given its manu-
facturing constraints. A mathematical model may be the only way to determine the highest
profits the company can achieve under these circumstances.
6. A model can be used to communicate problems and solutions to others. A decision analyst
can share his or her work with other decision analysts. Solutions to a mathematical model
can be given to managers and executives to help them make final decisions.

Mathematical Models Categorized by Risk

Some mathematical models, like the profit and break-even models previously discussed, do not
Deterministic means with involve risk or chance. We assume that we know all values used in the model with complete cer-
complete certainty. tainty. These are called deterministic models. A company, for example, might want to minimize
10   Chapter 1 • Introduction to Quantitative Analysis

manufacturing costs while maintaining a certain quality level. If we know all these values with
certainty, the model is deterministic.
Other models involve risk or chance. For example, the market for a new product might be
“good” with a chance of 60% (a probability of 0.6) or “not good” with a chance of 40% (a prob-
ability of 0.4). Models that involve chance or risk, often measured as a probability value, are
called probabilistic models. In this book, we will investigate both deterministic and probabilis-
tic models.

1.6 T he Role of Computers and Spreadsheet Models

in the Quantitative Analysis Approach
Developing a solution, testing the solution, and analyzing the results are important steps in the
quantitative analysis approach. Because we will be using mathematical models, these steps
­require mathematical calculations. Excel 2013 can be used to help with these calculations, and
some spreadsheets developed in Excel will be shown in some chapters. However, some of the
techniques presented in this book require sophisticated spreadsheets and are quite tedious to
­develop. Fortunately, there are two software programs available from the Companion Website
for this book that makes this much easier. These are:
1. POM-QM for Windows is an easy-to-use decision support program that was developed
POM and quantitative methods (QM) courses. POM for Windows and QM for Windows
were originally separate software packages for each type of course. These are now com-
bined into one program called POM-QM for Windows. As seen in Program 1.1, it is
­possible to display all the modules, only the POM modules, or only the QM modules. The
images shown in this textbook will typically display only the QM modules. Hence, in this
book, reference will usually be made to QM for Windows. ­Appendix E at the end of the
book provides more information about QM for Windows.
To use QM for Windows to solve the break-even problem presented earlier, from
the Module drop-down menu select Breakeven/Cost-Volume Analysis. Then select New-
Breakeven Analysis to enter the problem. When the window opens, enter a name for the
problem and select OK. Upon doing this, you will see the screen shown in Program 1.2A.
The solution is shown in Program 1.2B. Notice the additional output available from the
Window drop-down menu.

Program 1.1
The QM for Windows
Main Menu

Select a module from the

drop-down menu

To see the modules relevant

for this book, select Display
QM Modules
 1.6 The Role of Computers and Spreadsheet Models in the Quantitative Analysis Approach   11

Program 1.2A 
Entering the Data for
Pritchett’s Precious Time
Pieces Example into QM
Click Solve to run
for Windows the program.

Enter the data.

Program 1.2B 
Additional output is available
QM for Windows
from the Window menu.
Solution Screen for
Pritchett’s Precious Time
Pieces Example

Files for the QM for Windows examples throughout the book can be downloaded from
the Companion Website. Opening these files will demonstrate how data are input for the
various modules of QM for Windows.
2. Excel QM, an add-in for Excel, can also be used to perform the mathematical calculations
for the techniques discussed in each chapter. When installed, in Excel 2013, Excel QM
will appear as a tab on the ribbon. From this tab, the appropriate model can be selected
from a menu as shown in Program 1.3. Appendix F has more information about this.
Excel files with the example problems shown can be downloaded from the Companion
Website.
To use Excel QM in Excel 2013 to solve the break-even problem presented earlier,
from the Alphabetical Menu (see Program 1.3) select Breakeven Analysis. When this is
done, a worksheet is prepared automatically and the user simply inputs the fixed cost,
­variable cost, and revenue (selling price per unit) as shown in Program 1.4. The solution
is calculated when all the inputs have been entered.
Excel 2013 contains some functions, special features, formulas, and tools that help
with some of the questions that might be posed in analyzing a business problem. Once such
feature, Goal Seek, is shown in Program 1.5 as it is applied to the break-even example.
Excel 2013 also has some add-ins that must be activated before using them the first time.
These include the Data Analysis add-in and the Solver add-in, which will be discussed in
later chapters.
12   Chapter 1 • Introduction to Quantitative Analysis

Program 1.3
Excel QM in Excel 2013 Ribbon and Menu of Techniques

Select the Excel

QM tab.

Select the Alphabetical menu

to see the techniques.

Program 1.4
Entering the Data for Pritchett’s Precious Time Pieces Example into Excel QM in Excel 2013

The problem data

is entered here.

The results are

shown here.
 1.7 Possible Problems in the Quantitative Analysis Approach   13

Program 1.5
Using Goal Seek in the Break-Even Problem to Achieve a Specified Profit

From the Data tab, select What-if Analysis. From the menu
that drops down, select Goal Seek.

If the goal is $175 profit (B23), and this is

obtained by changing the volume (B13), the
Goal Seek window inputs are these.

Major League Operations Research

In Action at the Department of Agriculture

I n 1997, the Pittsburgh Pirates signed Ross Ohlendorf because

of his 95-mph sinking fastball. Little did they know that Ross pos-
sessed operations research skills also worthy of national merit.
Ross Ohlendorf had graduated from Princeton University with a
3.8 GPA in operations research and financial engineering.
Indeed, after the 2009 baseball season, when Ross applied
for an 8-week unpaid internship with the U.S. Department of
Agriculture, he didn’t need to mention his full-time employer
because the Secretary of the Department of Agriculture at the
time, Tom ­Vilsack, was born and raised in Pittsburgh and was an
avid ­Pittsburgh Pirates fan. Ross spent 2 months of the ­ensuing
off-­season utilizing his educational background in operations
­research, helping the Department of Agriculture track disease
migration in livestock, a subject Ross has a vested interest in as
his family runs a cattle ranch in Texas. Moreover, when ABC News
asked Ross about his off-season unpaid internship experience,
he replied, “This one’s been, I’d say, the most exciting off-season
I’ve had.”
Source: Rick Klein, “Ross Ohlendorf: From Major League Pitcher to Unpaid
Intern,” ABCnews.go.com, December 15, 2009.

1.7 Possible Problems in the Quantitative Analysis Approach

We have presented the quantitative analysis approach as a logical, systematic means of tackling
decision-making problems. Even when these steps are followed carefully, there are many diffi-
culties that can hurt the chances of implementing solutions to real-world problems. We now take
a look at what can happen during each of the steps.

Defining the Problem

One view of decision makers is that they sit at a desk all day long, waiting until a problem
arises, and then stand up and attack the problem until it is solved. Once it is solved, they sit
down, ­relax, and wait for the next big problem. In the worlds of business, government, and
14   Chapter 1 • Introduction to Quantitative Analysis
All viewpoints should be
considered before formally
defining the problem.
An optimal solution to the wrong
problem leaves the real problem
unsolved.
education, problems are, unfortunately, not easily identified. There are four potential roadblocks
that quantitative analysts face in defining a problem. We use an application, inventory analysis,
throughout this section as an example.
Conflicting Viewpoints The first difficulty is that quantitative analysts must often consider
conflicting viewpoints in defining the problem. For example, there are at least two views that
managers take when dealing with inventory problems. Financial managers usually feel that in-
ventory is too high, as inventory represents cash not available for other investments. Sales man-
agers, on the other hand, often feel that inventory is too low, as high levels of inventory may
be needed to fill an unexpected order. If analysts assume either one of these statements as the
problem definition, they have essentially accepted one manager’s perception and can expect re-
sistance from the other manager when the “solution” emerges. So it’s important to consider both
points of view before stating the problem. Good mathematical models should include all perti-
nent information. As we shall see in Chapter 6, both of these factors are included in inventory
models.
Impact on Other Departments The next difficulty is that problems do not exist in isolation
and are not owned by just one department of a firm. Inventory is closely tied with cash flows and
various production problems. A change in ordering policy can seriously hurt cash flows and up-
set production schedules to the point that savings on inventory are more than offset by increased
costs for finance and production. The problem statement should thus be as broad as possible and
include input from all departments that have a stake in the solution. When a solution is found,
the benefits to all areas of the organization should be identified and communicated to the people
involved.
Beginning Assumptions The third difficulty is that people have a tendency to state problems
in terms of solutions. The statement that inventory is too low implies a solution that inventory
levels should be raised. The quantitative analyst who starts off with this assumption will prob-
ably indeed find that inventory should be raised. From an implementation standpoint, a “good”
solution to the right problem is much better than an “optimal” solution to the wrong problem.
If a problem has been defined in terms of a desired solution, the quantitative analyst should ask
questions about why this solution is desired. By probing further, the true problem will surface
and can be defined properly.
Solution Outdated  Even with the best of problem statements, however, there is a fourth
danger. The problem can change as the model is being developed. In our rapidly changing busi-
ness environment, it is not unusual for problems to appear or disappear virtually overnight. The
analyst who presents a solution to a problem that no longer exists can’t expect credit for provid-
ing timely help. However, one of the benefits of mathematical models is that once the original
model has been developed, it can be used over and over again whenever similar problems arise.
This allows a solution to be found very easily in a timely manner.
Developing a Model
Fitting the Textbook Models One problem in developing quantitative models is that a
manager’s perception of a problem won’t always match the textbook approach. Most inventory
models involve minimizing the total of holding and ordering costs. Some managers view these
costs as unimportant; instead, they see the problem in terms of cash flow, turnover, and levels of
customer satisfaction. Results of a model based on holding and ordering costs are probably not
acceptable to such managers. This is why the analyst must completely understand the model
and not simply use the computer as a “black box” where data are input and results are given
with no understanding of the process. The analyst who understands the process can explain to
the manager how the model does consider these other factors when estimating the different
types of inventory costs. If other factors are important as well, the analyst can consider these
and use sensitivity analysis and good judgment to modify the computer solution before it is
implemented.
Understanding the Model A second major concern involves the trade-off between the
complexity of the model and ease of understanding. Managers simply will not use the results
 1.7 Possible Problems in the Quantitative Analysis Approach   15
Obtaining accurate input data
can be very difficult.
Hard-to-understand mathematics
and one answer can be a problem
in developing a solution.
of a model they do not understand. Complex problems, though, require complex models. One
trade-off is to simplify assumptions in order to make the model easier to understand. The model
loses some of its reality but gains some acceptance by management.
One simplifying assumption in inventory modeling is that demand is known and constant.
This means that probability distributions are not needed and it allows us to build simple, easy-
to-understand models. Demand, however, is rarely known and constant, so the model we build
lacks some reality. Introducing probability distributions provides more realism but may put
comprehension beyond all but the most mathematically sophisticated managers. One approach
is for the quantitative analyst to start with the simple model and make sure that it is completely
understood. Later, more complex models can be introduced slowly as managers gain more con-
fidence in using the new approach. Explaining the impact of the more sophisticated models
(e.g., carrying extra inventory called safety stock) without going into complete mathematical
details is sometimes helpful. Managers can understand and identify with this concept, even
if the specific mathematics used to find the appropriate quantity of safety stock is not totally
understood.
Acquiring Input Data
Gathering the data to be used in the quantitative approach to problem solving is often not a
simple task. One-fifth of all firms in a recent study had difficulty with data access.
Using Accounting Data  One problem is that most data generated in a firm come from basic
accounting reports. The accounting department collects its inventory data, for example, in terms
of cash flows and turnover. But quantitative analysts tackling an inventory problem need to col-
lect data on holding costs and ordering costs. If they ask for such data, they may be shocked to
find that the data were simply never collected for those specified costs.
Professor Gene Woolsey tells a story of a young quantitative analyst sent down to account-
ing to get “the inventory holding cost per item per day for part 23456/AZ.” The accountant asked
the young man if he wanted the first-in, first-out figure, the last-in, first-out figure, the lower of
cost or market figure, or the “how-we-do-it” figure. The young man replied that the inventory
model required only one number. The accountant at the next desk said, “Hell, Joe, give the kid a
number.” The kid was given a number and departed.
Validity of Data  A lack of “good, clean data” means that whatever data are available must
often be distilled and manipulated (we call it “fudging”) before being used in a model. Unfortu-
nately, the validity of the results of a model is no better than the validity of the data that go into
the model. You cannot blame a manager for resisting a model’s “scientific” results when he or
she knows that questionable data were used as input. This highlights the importance of the ana-
lyst understanding other business functions so that good data can be found and evaluated by the
analyst. It also emphasizes the importance of sensitivity analysis, which is used to determine the
impact of minor changes in input data. Some solutions are very robust and would not change at
all for certain changes in the input data.
Developing a Solution
Hard-to-Understand Mathematics The first concern in developing solutions is that al-
though the mathematical models we use may be complex and powerful, they may not be com-
pletely understood. Fancy solutions to problems may have faulty logic or data. The aura of
mathematics often causes managers to remain silent when they should be critical. The well-
known operations researcher C. W. Churchman cautions that “because mathematics has been so
revered a discipline in recent years, it tends to lull the unsuspecting into believing that he who
thinks elaborately thinks well.”1
Only One Answer Is Limiting  The second problem is that quantitative models usually give
just one answer to a problem. Most managers would like to have a range of options and not be
1
C. W. Churchman. “Relativity Models in the Social Sciences,” Interfaces 4, 1 (November 1973).
16   Chapter 1 • Introduction to Quantitative Analysis

put in a take-it-or-leave-it position. A more appropriate strategy is for an analyst to present a

range of options, indicating the effect that each solution has on the objective function. This gives
managers a choice as well as information on how much it will cost to deviate from the optimal
solution. It also allows problems to be viewed from a broader perspective, since nonquantitative
factors can be considered.

Testing the Solution

Assumptions should be reviewed.
The results of quantitative analysis often take the form of predictions of how things will work
in the future if certain changes are made now. To get a preview of how well solutions will re-
ally work, managers are often asked how good the solution looks to them. The problem is that
complex models tend to give solutions that are not intuitively obvious. Such solutions tend to be
rejected by managers. The quantitative analyst now has the chance to work through the model
and the assumptions with the manager in an effort to convince the manager of the validity of the
results. In the process of convincing the manager, the analyst will have to review every assump-
tion that went into the model. If there are errors, they may be revealed during this review. In
addition, the manager will be casting a critical eye on everything that went into the model, and if
he or she can be convinced that the model is valid, there is a good chance that the solution results
are also valid.

Analyzing the Results

Once a solution has been tested, the results must be analyzed in terms of how they will affect
the total organization. You should be aware that even small changes in organizations are often
difficult to bring about. If the results indicate large changes in organization policy, the quantita-
tive analyst can expect resistance. In analyzing the results, the analyst should ascertain who must
change and by how much, if the people who must change will be better or worse off, and who
has the power to direct the change.

In Action PLATO Helps 2004 Olympic Games in Athens

T he 2004 Olympic Games were held in Athens, Greece, over

a period of 16 days. More than 2,000 athletes competed in 300
events in 28 sports. The events were held in 36 different venues
(stadia, competition centers, etc.), and 3.6 million tickets were
sold to people who would view these events. In addition, 2,500
members of international committees and 22,000 journalists and
broadcasters attended these games. Home viewers spent more
than 34 billion hours watching these sporting events. The 2004
Olympic Games was the biggest sporting event in the history of
the world up to that point.
In addition to the sporting venues, other noncompetitive ven-
ues, such as the airport and Olympic village, had to be considered. A
successful Olympics requires tremendous planning for the transpor-
tation system that will handle the millions of spectators. Three years
of work and planning were needed for the 16 days of the Olympics.
The Athens Olympic Games Organizing Committee (ATHOC)
had to plan, design, and coordinate systems that would be de-
livered by outside contractors. ATHOC personnel would later be
responsible for managing the efforts of volunteers and paid staff
during the operations of the games. To make the Athens Olym-
pics run efficiently and effectively, the Process Logistics Advanced
Technical Optimization (PLATO) project was begun. Innovative
techniques from management science, systems engineering, and
information technology were used to change the planning, de-
sign, and operations of venues.
The objectives of PLATO were to (1) facilitate effective orga-
nizational transformation, (2) help plan and manage resources
in a cost-effective manner, and (3) document lessons learned so
future Olympic committees could benefit. The PLATO project de-
veloped business-process models for the various venues, devel-
oped simulation models that enable the generation of what-if
scenarios, developed software to aid in the creation and manage-
ment of these models, and developed process steps for training
ATHOC personnel in using these models. Generic solutions were
developed so that this knowledge and approach could be made
available to other users.
PLATO was credited with reducing the cost of the 2004 Olym-
pics by over $69 million. Perhaps even more important is the fact
that the Athens games were universally deemed an unqualified
success. The resulting increase in tourism is expected to result in
economic benefit to Greece for many years in the future.
Source: Based on D. A. Beis et al. PLATO Helps Athens Win Gold: Olympic
Games Knowledge Modeling for Organizational Change and Resource Man-
agement,” Interfaces 36, 1 (January–February 2006): 26–42.
Another random document with
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 DANCE ON STILTS AT THE GIRLS’ UNYAGO, NIUCHI

Newala, too, suffers from the distance of its water-supply—at least

the Newala of to-day does; there was once another Newala in a lovely
valley at the foot of the plateau. I visited it and found scarcely a trace
of houses, only a Christian cemetery, with the graves of several
missionaries and their converts, remaining as a monument of its
former glories. But the surroundings are wonderfully beautiful. A
thick grove of splendid mango-trees closes in the weather-worn
crosses and headstones; behind them, combining the useful and the
agreeable, is a whole plantation of lemon-trees covered with ripe
fruit; not the small African kind, but a much larger and also juicier
imported variety, which drops into the hands of the passing traveller,
without calling for any exertion on his part. Old Newala is now under
the jurisdiction of the native pastor, Daudi, at Chingulungulu, who,
as I am on very friendly terms with him, allows me, as a matter of
course, the use of this lemon-grove during my stay at Newala.
 FEET MUTILATED BY THE RAVAGES OF THE “JIGGER”
(Sarcopsylla penetrans)

The water-supply of New Newala is in the bottom of the valley,

some 1,600 feet lower down. The way is not only long and fatiguing,
but the water, when we get it, is thoroughly bad. We are suffering not
only from this, but from the fact that the arrangements at Newala are
nothing short of luxurious. We have a separate kitchen—a hut built
against the boma palisade on the right of the baraza, the interior of
which is not visible from our usual position. Our two cooks were not
long in finding this out, and they consequently do—or rather neglect
to do—what they please. In any case they do not seem to be very
particular about the boiling of our drinking-water—at least I can
attribute to no other cause certain attacks of a dysenteric nature,
from which both Knudsen and I have suffered for some time. If a
man like Omari has to be left unwatched for a moment, he is capable
of anything. Besides this complaint, we are inconvenienced by the
state of our nails, which have become as hard as glass, and crack on
the slightest provocation, and I have the additional infliction of
pimples all over me. As if all this were not enough, we have also, for
the last week been waging war against the jigger, who has found his
Eldorado in the hot sand of the Makonde plateau. Our men are seen
all day long—whenever their chronic colds and the dysentery likewise
raging among them permit—occupied in removing this scourge of
Africa from their feet and trying to prevent the disastrous
consequences of its presence. It is quite common to see natives of
this place with one or two toes missing; many have lost all their toes,
or even the whole front part of the foot, so that a well-formed leg
ends in a shapeless stump. These ravages are caused by the female of
Sarcopsylla penetrans, which bores its way under the skin and there
develops an egg-sac the size of a pea. In all books on the subject, it is
stated that one’s attention is called to the presence of this parasite by
an intolerable itching. This agrees very well with my experience, so
far as the softer parts of the sole, the spaces between and under the
toes, and the side of the foot are concerned, but if the creature
penetrates through the harder parts of the heel or ball of the foot, it
may escape even the most careful search till it has reached maturity.
Then there is no time to be lost, if the horrible ulceration, of which
we see cases by the dozen every day, is to be prevented. It is much
easier, by the way, to discover the insect on the white skin of a
European than on that of a native, on which the dark speck scarcely
shows. The four or five jiggers which, in spite of the fact that I
constantly wore high laced boots, chose my feet to settle in, were
taken out for me by the all-accomplished Knudsen, after which I
thought it advisable to wash out the cavities with corrosive
sublimate. The natives have a different sort of disinfectant—they fill
the hole with scraped roots. In a tiny Makua village on the slope of
the plateau south of Newala, we saw an old woman who had filled all
the spaces under her toe-nails with powdered roots by way of
prophylactic treatment. What will be the result, if any, who can say?
The rest of the many trifling ills which trouble our existence are
really more comic than serious. In the absence of anything else to
smoke, Knudsen and I at last opened a box of cigars procured from
the Indian store-keeper at Lindi, and tried them, with the most
distressing results. Whether they contain opium or some other
narcotic, neither of us can say, but after the tenth puff we were both
“off,” three-quarters stupefied and unspeakably wretched. Slowly we
recovered—and what happened next? Half-an-hour later we were
once more smoking these poisonous concoctions—so insatiable is the
craving for tobacco in the tropics.
Even my present attacks of fever scarcely deserve to be taken
seriously. I have had no less than three here at Newala, all of which
have run their course in an incredibly short time. In the early
afternoon, I am busy with my old natives, asking questions and
making notes. The strong midday coffee has stimulated my spirits to
an extraordinary degree, the brain is active and vigorous, and work
progresses rapidly, while a pleasant warmth pervades the whole
body. Suddenly this gives place to a violent chill, forcing me to put on
my overcoat, though it is only half-past three and the afternoon sun
is at its hottest. Now the brain no longer works with such acuteness
and logical precision; more especially does it fail me in trying to
establish the syntax of the difficult Makua language on which I have
ventured, as if I had not enough to do without it. Under the
circumstances it seems advisable to take my temperature, and I do
so, to save trouble, without leaving my seat, and while going on with
my work. On examination, I find it to be 101·48°. My tutors are
abruptly dismissed and my bed set up in the baraza; a few minutes
later I am in it and treating myself internally with hot water and
lemon-juice.
Three hours later, the thermometer marks nearly 104°, and I make
them carry me back into the tent, bed and all, as I am now perspiring
heavily, and exposure to the cold wind just beginning to blow might
mean a fatal chill. I lie still for a little while, and then find, to my
great relief, that the temperature is not rising, but rather falling. This
is about 7.30 p.m. At 8 p.m. I find, to my unbounded astonishment,
that it has fallen below 98·6°, and I feel perfectly well. I read for an
hour or two, and could very well enjoy a smoke, if I had the
wherewithal—Indian cigars being out of the question.
Having no medical training, I am at a loss to account for this state
of things. It is impossible that these transitory attacks of high fever
should be malarial; it seems more probable that they are due to a
kind of sunstroke. On consulting my note-book, I become more and
more inclined to think this is the case, for these attacks regularly
follow extreme fatigue and long exposure to strong sunshine. They at
least have the advantage of being only short interruptions to my
work, as on the following morning I am always quite fresh and fit.
My treasure of a cook is suffering from an enormous hydrocele which
makes it difficult for him to get up, and Moritz is obliged to keep in
the dark on account of his inflamed eyes. Knudsen’s cook, a raw boy
from somewhere in the bush, knows still less of cooking than Omari;
consequently Nils Knudsen himself has been promoted to the vacant
post. Finding that we had come to the end of our supplies, he began
by sending to Chingulungulu for the four sucking-pigs which we had
bought from Matola and temporarily left in his charge; and when
they came up, neatly packed in a large crate, he callously slaughtered
the biggest of them. The first joint we were thoughtless enough to
entrust for roasting to Knudsen’s mshenzi cook, and it was
consequently uneatable; but we made the rest of the animal into a
jelly which we ate with great relish after weeks of underfeeding,
consuming incredible helpings of it at both midday and evening
meals. The only drawback is a certain want of variety in the tinned
vegetables. Dr. Jäger, to whom the Geographical Commission
entrusted the provisioning of the expeditions—mine as well as his
own—because he had more time on his hands than the rest of us,
seems to have laid in a huge stock of Teltow turnips,[46] an article of
food which is all very well for occasional use, but which quickly palls
when set before one every day; and we seem to have no other tins
left. There is no help for it—we must put up with the turnips; but I
am certain that, once I am home again, I shall not touch them for ten
years to come.
Amid all these minor evils, which, after all, go to make up the
genuine flavour of Africa, there is at least one cheering touch:
Knudsen has, with the dexterity of a skilled mechanic, repaired my 9
× 12 cm. camera, at least so far that I can use it with a little care.
How, in the absence of finger-nails, he was able to accomplish such a
ticklish piece of work, having no tool but a clumsy screw-driver for
taking to pieces and putting together again the complicated
mechanism of the instantaneous shutter, is still a mystery to me; but
he did it successfully. The loss of his finger-nails shows him in a light
contrasting curiously enough with the intelligence evinced by the
above operation; though, after all, it is scarcely surprising after his
ten years’ residence in the bush. One day, at Lindi, he had occasion
to wash a dog, which must have been in need of very thorough
cleansing, for the bottle handed to our friend for the purpose had an
extremely strong smell. Having performed his task in the most
conscientious manner, he perceived with some surprise that the dog
did not appear much the better for it, and was further surprised by
finding his own nails ulcerating away in the course of the next few
days. “How was I to know that carbolic acid has to be diluted?” he
mutters indignantly, from time to time, with a troubled gaze at his
mutilated finger-tips.
 Since we came to Newala we have been making excursions in all
directions through the surrounding country, in accordance with old
habit, and also because the akida Sefu did not get together the tribal
elders from whom I wanted information so speedily as he had
promised. There is, however, no harm done, as, even if seen only
from the outside, the country and people are interesting enough.
The Makonde plateau is like a large rectangular table rounded off
at the corners. Measured from the Indian Ocean to Newala, it is
about seventy-five miles long, and between the Rovuma and the
Lukuledi it averages fifty miles in breadth, so that its superficial area
is about two-thirds of that of the kingdom of Saxony. The surface,
however, is not level, but uniformly inclined from its south-western
edge to the ocean. From the upper edge, on which Newala lies, the
eye ranges for many miles east and north-east, without encountering
any obstacle, over the Makonde bush. It is a green sea, from which
here and there thick clouds of smoke rise, to show that it, too, is
inhabited by men who carry on their tillage like so many other
primitive peoples, by cutting down and burning the bush, and
manuring with the ashes. Even in the radiant light of a tropical day
such a fire is a grand sight.
Much less effective is the impression produced just now by the
great western plain as seen from the edge of the plateau. As often as
time permits, I stroll along this edge, sometimes in one direction,
sometimes in another, in the hope of finding the air clear enough to
let me enjoy the view; but I have always been disappointed.
Wherever one looks, clouds of smoke rise from the burning bush,
and the air is full of smoke and vapour. It is a pity, for under more
favourable circumstances the panorama of the whole country up to
the distant Majeje hills must be truly magnificent. It is of little use
taking photographs now, and an outline sketch gives a very poor idea
of the scenery. In one of these excursions I went out of my way to
make a personal attempt on the Makonde bush. The present edge of
the plateau is the result of a far-reaching process of destruction
through erosion and denudation. The Makonde strata are
everywhere cut into by ravines, which, though short, are hundreds of
yards in depth. In consequence of the loose stratification of these
beds, not only are the walls of these ravines nearly vertical, but their
upper end is closed by an equally steep escarpment, so that the
western edge of the Makonde plateau is hemmed in by a series of
deep, basin-like valleys. In order to get from one side of such a ravine
to the other, I cut my way through the bush with a dozen of my men.
It was a very open part, with more grass than scrub, but even so the
short stretch of less than two hundred yards was very hard work; at
the end of it the men’s calicoes were in rags and they themselves
bleeding from hundreds of scratches, while even our strong khaki
suits had not escaped scatheless.

NATIVE PATH THROUGH THE MAKONDE BUSH, NEAR

MAHUTA

I see increasing reason to believe that the view formed some time
back as to the origin of the Makonde bush is the correct one. I have
no doubt that it is not a natural product, but the result of human
occupation. Those parts of the high country where man—as a very
slight amount of practice enables the eye to perceive at once—has not
yet penetrated with axe and hoe, are still occupied by a splendid
timber forest quite able to sustain a comparison with our mixed
forests in Germany. But wherever man has once built his hut or tilled
his field, this horrible bush springs up. Every phase of this process
may be seen in the course of a couple of hours’ walk along the main
road. From the bush to right or left, one hears the sound of the axe—
not from one spot only, but from several directions at once. A few
steps further on, we can see what is taking place. The brush has been
cut down and piled up in heaps to the height of a yard or more,
between which the trunks of the large trees stand up like the last
pillars of a magnificent ruined building. These, too, present a
melancholy spectacle: the destructive Makonde have ringed them—
cut a broad strip of bark all round to ensure their dying off—and also
piled up pyramids of brush round them. Father and son, mother and
son-in-law, are chopping away perseveringly in the background—too
busy, almost, to look round at the white stranger, who usually excites
so much interest. If you pass by the same place a week later, the piles
of brushwood have disappeared and a thick layer of ashes has taken
the place of the green forest. The large trees stretch their
smouldering trunks and branches in dumb accusation to heaven—if
they have not already fallen and been more or less reduced to ashes,
perhaps only showing as a white stripe on the dark ground.
This work of destruction is carried out by the Makonde alike on the
virgin forest and on the bush which has sprung up on sites already
cultivated and deserted. In the second case they are saved the trouble
of burning the large trees, these being entirely absent in the
secondary bush.
After burning this piece of forest ground and loosening it with the
hoe, the native sows his corn and plants his vegetables. All over the
country, he goes in for bed-culture, which requires, and, in fact,
receives, the most careful attention. Weeds are nowhere tolerated in
the south of German East Africa. The crops may fail on the plains,
where droughts are frequent, but never on the plateau with its
abundant rains and heavy dews. Its fortunate inhabitants even have
the satisfaction of seeing the proud Wayao and Wamakua working
for them as labourers, driven by hunger to serve where they were
accustomed to rule.
But the light, sandy soil is soon exhausted, and would yield no
harvest the second year if cultivated twice running. This fact has
been familiar to the native for ages; consequently he provides in
time, and, while his crop is growing, prepares the next plot with axe
and firebrand. Next year he plants this with his various crops and
lets the first piece lie fallow. For a short time it remains waste and
desolate; then nature steps in to repair the destruction wrought by
man; a thousand new growths spring out of the exhausted soil, and
even the old stumps put forth fresh shoots. Next year the new growth
is up to one’s knees, and in a few years more it is that terrible,
impenetrable bush, which maintains its position till the black
occupier of the land has made the round of all the available sites and
come back to his starting point.
The Makonde are, body and soul, so to speak, one with this bush.
According to my Yao informants, indeed, their name means nothing
else but “bush people.” Their own tradition says that they have been
settled up here for a very long time, but to my surprise they laid great
stress on an original immigration. Their old homes were in the
south-east, near Mikindani and the mouth of the Rovuma, whence
their peaceful forefathers were driven by the continual raids of the
Sakalavas from Madagascar and the warlike Shirazis[47] of the coast,
to take refuge on the almost inaccessible plateau. I have studied
African ethnology for twenty years, but the fact that changes of
population in this apparently quiet and peaceable corner of the earth
could have been occasioned by outside enterprises taking place on
the high seas, was completely new to me. It is, no doubt, however,
correct.
The charming tribal legend of the Makonde—besides informing us
of other interesting matters—explains why they have to live in the
thickest of the bush and a long way from the edge of the plateau,
instead of making their permanent homes beside the purling brooks
and springs of the low country.
“The place where the tribe originated is Mahuta, on the southern
side of the plateau towards the Rovuma, where of old time there was
nothing but thick bush. Out of this bush came a man who never
washed himself or shaved his head, and who ate and drank but little.
He went out and made a human figure from the wood of a tree
growing in the open country, which he took home to his abode in the
bush and there set it upright. In the night this image came to life and
was a woman. The man and woman went down together to the
Rovuma to wash themselves. Here the woman gave birth to a still-
born child. They left that place and passed over the high land into the
valley of the Mbemkuru, where the woman had another child, which
was also born dead. Then they returned to the high bush country of
Mahuta, where the third child was born, which lived and grew up. In
course of time, the couple had many more children, and called
themselves Wamatanda. These were the ancestral stock of the
Makonde, also called Wamakonde,[48] i.e., aborigines. Their
forefather, the man from the bush, gave his children the command to
bury their dead upright, in memory of the mother of their race who
was cut out of wood and awoke to life when standing upright. He also
warned them against settling in the valleys and near large streams,
for sickness and death dwelt there. They were to make it a rule to
have their huts at least an hour’s walk from the nearest watering-
place; then their children would thrive and escape illness.”
The explanation of the name Makonde given by my informants is
somewhat different from that contained in the above legend, which I
extract from a little book (small, but packed with information), by
Pater Adams, entitled Lindi und sein Hinterland. Otherwise, my
results agree exactly with the statements of the legend. Washing?
Hapana—there is no such thing. Why should they do so? As it is, the
supply of water scarcely suffices for cooking and drinking; other
people do not wash, so why should the Makonde distinguish himself
by such needless eccentricity? As for shaving the head, the short,
woolly crop scarcely needs it,[49] so the second ancestral precept is
likewise easy enough to follow. Beyond this, however, there is
nothing ridiculous in the ancestor’s advice. I have obtained from
various local artists a fairly large number of figures carved in wood,
ranging from fifteen to twenty-three inches in height, and
representing women belonging to the great group of the Mavia,
Makonde, and Matambwe tribes. The carving is remarkably well
done and renders the female type with great accuracy, especially the
keloid ornamentation, to be described later on. As to the object and
meaning of their works the sculptors either could or (more probably)
would tell me nothing, and I was forced to content myself with the
scanty information vouchsafed by one man, who said that the figures
were merely intended to represent the nembo—the artificial
deformations of pelele, ear-discs, and keloids. The legend recorded
by Pater Adams places these figures in a new light. They must surely
be more than mere dolls; and we may even venture to assume that
they are—though the majority of present-day Makonde are probably
unaware of the fact—representations of the tribal ancestress.
 The references in the legend to the descent from Mahuta to the
Rovuma, and to a journey across the highlands into the Mbekuru
valley, undoubtedly indicate the previous history of the tribe, the
travels of the ancestral pair typifying the migrations of their
descendants. The descent to the neighbouring Rovuma valley, with
its extraordinary fertility and great abundance of game, is intelligible
at a glance—but the crossing of the Lukuledi depression, the ascent
to the Rondo Plateau and the descent to the Mbemkuru, also lie
within the bounds of probability, for all these districts have exactly
the same character as the extreme south. Now, however, comes a
point of especial interest for our bacteriological age. The primitive
Makonde did not enjoy their lives in the marshy river-valleys.
Disease raged among them, and many died. It was only after they
had returned to their original home near Mahuta, that the health
conditions of these people improved. We are very apt to think of the
African as a stupid person whose ignorance of nature is only equalled
by his fear of it, and who looks on all mishaps as caused by evil
spirits and malignant natural powers. It is much more correct to
assume in this case that the people very early learnt to distinguish
districts infested with malaria from those where it is absent.
This knowledge is crystallized in the
ancestral warning against settling in the
valleys and near the great waters, the
dwelling-places of disease and death. At the
same time, for security against the hostile
Mavia south of the Rovuma, it was enacted
that every settlement must be not less than a
certain distance from the southern edge of the
plateau. Such in fact is their mode of life at the
present day. It is not such a bad one, and
certainly they are both safer and more
comfortable than the Makua, the recent
intruders from the south, who have made USUAL METHOD OF
good their footing on the western edge of the CLOSING HUT-DOOR
plateau, extending over a fairly wide belt of
country. Neither Makua nor Makonde show in their dwellings
anything of the size and comeliness of the Yao houses in the plain,
especially at Masasi, Chingulungulu and Zuza’s. Jumbe Chauro, a
Makonde hamlet not far from Newala, on the road to Mahuta, is the
most important settlement of the tribe I have yet seen, and has fairly
spacious huts. But how slovenly is their construction compared with
the palatial residences of the elephant-hunters living in the plain.
The roofs are still more untidy than in the general run of huts during
the dry season, the walls show here and there the scanty beginnings
or the lamentable remains of the mud plastering, and the interior is a
veritable dog-kennel; dirt, dust and disorder everywhere. A few huts
only show any attempt at division into rooms, and this consists
merely of very roughly-made bamboo partitions. In one point alone
have I noticed any indication of progress—in the method of fastening
the door. Houses all over the south are secured in a simple but
ingenious manner. The door consists of a set of stout pieces of wood
or bamboo, tied with bark-string to two cross-pieces, and moving in
two grooves round one of the door-posts, so as to open inwards. If
the owner wishes to leave home, he takes two logs as thick as a man’s
upper arm and about a yard long. One of these is placed obliquely
against the middle of the door from the inside, so as to form an angle
of from 60° to 75° with the ground. He then places the second piece
horizontally across the first, pressing it downward with all his might.
It is kept in place by two strong posts planted in the ground a few
inches inside the door. This fastening is absolutely safe, but of course
cannot be applied to both doors at once, otherwise how could the
owner leave or enter his house? I have not yet succeeded in finding
out how the back door is fastened.

MAKONDE LOCK AND KEY AT JUMBE CHAURO

 This is the general way of closing a house. The Makonde at Jumbe
Chauro, however, have a much more complicated, solid and original
one. Here, too, the door is as already described, except that there is
only one post on the inside, standing by itself about six inches from
one side of the doorway. Opposite this post is a hole in the wall just
large enough to admit a man’s arm. The door is closed inside by a
large wooden bolt passing through a hole in this post and pressing
with its free end against the door. The other end has three holes into
which fit three pegs running in vertical grooves inside the post. The
door is opened with a wooden key about a foot long, somewhat
curved and sloped off at the butt; the other end has three pegs
corresponding to the holes, in the bolt, so that, when it is thrust
through the hole in the wall and inserted into the rectangular
opening in the post, the pegs can be lifted and the bolt drawn out.[50]

MODE OF INSERTING THE KEY

With no small pride first one householder and then a second

showed me on the spot the action of this greatest invention of the
Makonde Highlands. To both with an admiring exclamation of
“Vizuri sana!” (“Very fine!”). I expressed the wish to take back these
marvels with me to Ulaya, to show the Wazungu what clever fellows
the Makonde are. Scarcely five minutes after my return to camp at
Newala, the two men came up sweating under the weight of two
heavy logs which they laid down at my feet, handing over at the same
time the keys of the fallen fortress. Arguing, logically enough, that if
the key was wanted, the lock would be wanted with it, they had taken
their axes and chopped down the posts—as it never occurred to them
to dig them out of the ground and so bring them intact. Thus I have
two badly damaged specimens, and the owners, instead of praise,
come in for a blowing-up.
The Makua huts in the environs of Newala are especially
miserable; their more than slovenly construction reminds one of the
temporary erections of the Makua at Hatia’s, though the people here
have not been concerned in a war. It must therefore be due to
congenital idleness, or else to the absence of a powerful chief. Even
the baraza at Mlipa’s, a short hour’s walk south-east of Newala,
shares in this general neglect. While public buildings in this country
are usually looked after more or less carefully, this is in evident
danger of being blown over by the first strong easterly gale. The only
attractive object in this whole district is the grave of the late chief
Mlipa. I visited it in the morning, while the sun was still trying with
partial success to break through the rolling mists, and the circular
grove of tall euphorbias, which, with a broken pot, is all that marks
the old king’s resting-place, impressed one with a touch of pathos.
Even my very materially-minded carriers seemed to feel something
of the sort, for instead of their usual ribald songs, they chanted
solemnly, as we marched on through the dense green of the Makonde
bush:—
 “We shall arrive with the great master; we stand in a row and have
no fear about getting our food and our money from the Serkali (the
Government). We are not afraid; we are going along with the great
master, the lion; we are going down to the coast and back.”
With regard to the characteristic features of the various tribes here
on the western edge of the plateau, I can arrive at no other
conclusion than the one already come to in the plain, viz., that it is
impossible for anyone but a trained anthropologist to assign any
given individual at once to his proper tribe. In fact, I think that even
an anthropological specialist, after the most careful examination,
might find it a difficult task to decide. The whole congeries of peoples
collected in the region bounded on the west by the great Central
African rift, Tanganyika and Nyasa, and on the east by the Indian
Ocean, are closely related to each other—some of their languages are
only distinguished from one another as dialects of the same speech,
and no doubt all the tribes present the same shape of skull and
structure of skeleton. Thus, surely, there can be no very striking
differences in outward appearance.
 Even did such exist, I should have no time
to concern myself with them, for day after day,
I have to see or hear, as the case may be—in
any case to grasp and record—an
extraordinary number of ethnographic
phenomena. I am almost disposed to think it
fortunate that some departments of inquiry, at
least, are barred by external circumstances.
Chief among these is the subject of iron-
working. We are apt to think of Africa as a
country where iron ore is everywhere, so to
speak, to be picked up by the roadside, and
where it would be quite surprising if the
inhabitants had not learnt to smelt the
material ready to their hand. In fact, the
knowledge of this art ranges all over the
continent, from the Kabyles in the north to the
Kafirs in the south. Here between the Rovuma
and the Lukuledi the conditions are not so
favourable. According to the statements of the
Makonde, neither ironstone nor any other
form of iron ore is known to them. They have
not therefore advanced to the art of smelting
the metal, but have hitherto bought all their
THE ANCESTRESS OF
THE MAKONDE
iron implements from neighbouring tribes.
Even in the plain the inhabitants are not much
better off. Only one man now living is said to
understand the art of smelting iron. This old fundi lives close to
Huwe, that isolated, steep-sided block of granite which rises out of
the green solitude between Masasi and Chingulungulu, and whose
jagged and splintered top meets the traveller’s eye everywhere. While
still at Masasi I wished to see this man at work, but was told that,
frightened by the rising, he had retired across the Rovuma, though
he would soon return. All subsequent inquiries as to whether the
fundi had come back met with the genuine African answer, “Bado”
(“Not yet”).
 BRAZIER

Some consolation was afforded me by a brassfounder, whom I

came across in the bush near Akundonde’s. This man is the favourite
of women, and therefore no doubt of the gods; he welds the glittering
brass rods purchased at the coast into those massive, heavy rings
which, on the wrists and ankles of the local fair ones, continually give
me fresh food for admiration. Like every decent master-craftsman he
had all his tools with him, consisting of a pair of bellows, three
crucibles and a hammer—nothing more, apparently. He was quite
willing to show his skill, and in a twinkling had fixed his bellows on
the ground. They are simply two goat-skins, taken off whole, the four
legs being closed by knots, while the upper opening, intended to
admit the air, is kept stretched by two pieces of wood. At the lower
end of the skin a smaller opening is left into which a wooden tube is
stuck. The fundi has quickly borrowed a heap of wood-embers from
the nearest hut; he then fixes the free ends of the two tubes into an
earthen pipe, and clamps them to the ground by means of a bent
piece of wood. Now he fills one of his small clay crucibles, the dross
on which shows that they have been long in use, with the yellow
material, places it in the midst of the embers, which, at present are
only faintly glimmering, and begins his work. In quick alternation
the smith’s two hands move up and down with the open ends of the
bellows; as he raises his hand he holds the slit wide open, so as to let
the air enter the skin bag unhindered. In pressing it down he closes
the bag, and the air puffs through the bamboo tube and clay pipe into
the fire, which quickly burns up. The smith, however, does not keep
on with this work, but beckons to another man, who relieves him at
the bellows, while he takes some more tools out of a large skin pouch
carried on his back. I look on in wonder as, with a smooth round
stick about the thickness of a finger, he bores a few vertical holes into
the clean sand of the soil. This should not be difficult, yet the man
seems to be taking great pains over it. Then he fastens down to the
ground, with a couple of wooden clamps, a neat little trough made by
splitting a joint of bamboo in half, so that the ends are closed by the
two knots. At last the yellow metal has attained the right consistency,
and the fundi lifts the crucible from the fire by means of two sticks
split at the end to serve as tongs. A short swift turn to the left—a
tilting of the crucible—and the molten brass, hissing and giving forth
clouds of smoke, flows first into the bamboo mould and then into the
holes in the ground.
The technique of this backwoods craftsman may not be very far
advanced, but it cannot be denied that he knows how to obtain an
adequate result by the simplest means. The ladies of highest rank in
this country—that is to say, those who can afford it, wear two kinds
of these massive brass rings, one cylindrical, the other semicircular
in section. The latter are cast in the most ingenious way in the
bamboo mould, the former in the circular hole in the sand. It is quite
a simple matter for the fundi to fit these bars to the limbs of his fair
customers; with a few light strokes of his hammer he bends the
pliable brass round arm or ankle without further inconvenience to
the wearer.
SHAPING THE POT

SMOOTHING WITH MAIZE-COB

CUTTING THE EDGE

 FINISHING THE BOTTOM

LAST SMOOTHING BEFORE

BURNING

FIRING THE BRUSH-PILE

 LIGHTING THE FARTHER SIDE OF
THE PILE

TURNING THE RED-HOT VESSEL

NYASA WOMAN MAKING POTS AT MASASI

Pottery is an art which must always and everywhere excite the
interest of the student, just because it is so intimately connected with
the development of human culture, and because its relics are one of
the principal factors in the reconstruction of our own condition in
prehistoric times. I shall always remember with pleasure the two or
three afternoons at Masasi when Salim Matola’s mother, a slightly-
built, graceful, pleasant-looking woman, explained to me with
touching patience, by means of concrete illustrations, the ceramic art
of her people. The only implements for this primitive process were a
lump of clay in her left hand, and in the right a calabash containing
the following valuables: the fragment of a maize-cob stripped of all
its grains, a smooth, oval pebble, about the size of a pigeon’s egg, a
few chips of gourd-shell, a bamboo splinter about the length of one’s
hand, a small shell, and a bunch of some herb resembling spinach.
 Nothing more. The woman scraped with the
shell a round, shallow hole in the soft, fine
sand of the soil, and, when an active young
girl had filled the calabash with water for her,
she began to knead the clay. As if by magic it
gradually assumed the shape of a rough but
already well-shaped vessel, which only wanted
a little touching up with the instruments
before mentioned. I looked out with the
MAKUA WOMAN closest attention for any indication of the use
MAKING A POT. of the potter’s wheel, in however rudimentary
SHOWS THE a form, but no—hapana (there is none). The
BEGINNINGS OF THE embryo pot stood firmly in its little
POTTER’S WHEEL
depression, and the woman walked round it in
a stooping posture, whether she was removing
small stones or similar foreign bodies with the maize-cob, smoothing
the inner or outer surface with the splinter of bamboo, or later, after
letting it dry for a day, pricking in the ornamentation with a pointed
bit of gourd-shell, or working out the bottom, or cutting the edge
with a sharp bamboo knife, or giving the last touches to the finished
vessel. This occupation of the women is infinitely toilsome, but it is
without doubt an accurate reproduction of the process in use among
our ancestors of the Neolithic and Bronze ages.
There is no doubt that the invention of pottery, an item in human
progress whose importance cannot be over-estimated, is due to
women. Rough, coarse and unfeeling, the men of the horde range
over the countryside. When the united cunning of the hunters has
succeeded in killing the game; not one of them thinks of carrying
home the spoil. A bright fire, kindled by a vigorous wielding of the
drill, is crackling beside them; the animal has been cleaned and cut
up secundum artem, and, after a slight singeing, will soon disappear
under their sharp teeth; no one all this time giving a single thought
to wife or child.
To what shifts, on the other hand, the primitive wife, and still more
the primitive mother, was put! Not even prehistoric stomachs could
endure an unvarying diet of raw food. Something or other suggested
the beneficial effect of hot water on the majority of approved but
indigestible dishes. Perhaps a neighbour had tried holding the hard
roots or tubers over the fire in a calabash filled with water—or maybe
an ostrich-egg-shell, or a hastily improvised vessel of bark. They
became much softer and more palatable than they had previously
been; but, unfortunately, the vessel could not stand the fire and got
charred on the outside. That can be remedied, thought our
ancestress, and plastered a layer of wet clay round a similar vessel.
This is an improvement; the cooking utensil remains uninjured, but
the heat of the fire has shrunk it, so that it is loose in its shell. The
next step is to detach it, so, with a firm grip and a jerk, shell and
kernel are separated, and pottery is invented. Perhaps, however, the
discovery which led to an intelligent use of the burnt-clay shell, was
made in a slightly different way. Ostrich-eggs and calabashes are not
to be found in every part of the world, but everywhere mankind has
arrived at the art of making baskets out of pliant materials, such as
bark, bast, strips of palm-leaf, supple twigs, etc. Our inventor has no
water-tight vessel provided by nature. “Never mind, let us line the
basket with clay.” This answers the purpose, but alas! the basket gets
burnt over the blazing fire, the woman watches the process of
cooking with increasing uneasiness, fearing a leak, but no leak
appears. The food, done to a turn, is eaten with peculiar relish; and
the cooking-vessel is examined, half in curiosity, half in satisfaction
at the result. The plastic clay is now hard as stone, and at the same
time looks exceedingly well, for the neat plaiting of the burnt basket
is traced all over it in a pretty pattern. Thus, simultaneously with
pottery, its ornamentation was invented.
Primitive woman has another claim to respect. It was the man,
roving abroad, who invented the art of producing fire at will, but the
woman, unable to imitate him in this, has been a Vestal from the
earliest times. Nothing gives so much trouble as the keeping alight of
the smouldering brand, and, above all, when all the men are absent
from the camp. Heavy rain-clouds gather, already the first large
drops are falling, the first gusts of the storm rage over the plain. The
little flame, a greater anxiety to the woman than her own children,
flickers unsteadily in the blast. What is to be done? A sudden thought
occurs to her, and in an instant she has constructed a primitive hut
out of strips of bark, to protect the flame against rain and wind.
This, or something very like it, was the way in which the principle
of the house was discovered; and even the most hardened misogynist
cannot fairly refuse a woman the credit of it. The protection of the
hearth-fire from the weather is the germ from which the human
dwelling was evolved. Men had little, if any share, in this forward
step, and that only at a late stage. Even at the present day, the
plastering of the housewall with clay and the manufacture of pottery
are exclusively the women’s business. These are two very significant
survivals. Our European kitchen-garden, too, is originally a woman’s
invention, and the hoe, the primitive instrument of agriculture, is,
characteristically enough, still used in this department. But the
noblest achievement which we owe to the other sex is unquestionably
the art of cookery. Roasting alone—the oldest process—is one for
which men took the hint (a very obvious one) from nature. It must
have been suggested by the scorched carcase of some animal
overtaken by the destructive forest-fires. But boiling—the process of
improving organic substances by the help of water heated to boiling-
point—is a much later discovery. It is so recent that it has not even
yet penetrated to all parts of the world. The Polynesians understand
how to steam food, that is, to cook it, neatly wrapped in leaves, in a
hole in the earth between hot stones, the air being excluded, and
(sometimes) a few drops of water sprinkled on the stones; but they
do not understand boiling.
To come back from this digression, we find that the slender Nyasa
woman has, after once more carefully examining the finished pot,
put it aside in the shade to dry. On the following day she sends me
word by her son, Salim Matola, who is always on hand, that she is
going to do the burning, and, on coming out of my house, I find her
already hard at work. She has spread on the ground a layer of very
dry sticks, about as thick as one’s thumb, has laid the pot (now of a
yellowish-grey colour) on them, and is piling brushwood round it.
My faithful Pesa mbili, the mnyampara, who has been standing by,
most obligingly, with a lighted stick, now hands it to her. Both of
them, blowing steadily, light the pile on the lee side, and, when the
flame begins to catch, on the weather side also. Soon the whole is in a
blaze, but the dry fuel is quickly consumed and the fire dies down, so
that we see the red-hot vessel rising from the ashes. The woman
turns it continually with a long stick, sometimes one way and
sometimes another, so that it may be evenly heated all over. In
twenty minutes she rolls it out of the ash-heap, takes up the bundle
of spinach, which has been lying for two days in a jar of water, and
sprinkles the red-hot clay with it. The places where the drops fall are
marked by black spots on the uniform reddish-brown surface. With a
sigh of relief, and with visible satisfaction, the woman rises to an
erect position; she is standing just in a line between me and the fire,
from which a cloud of smoke is just rising: I press the ball of my
camera, the shutter clicks—the apotheosis is achieved! Like a
priestess, representative of her inventive sex, the graceful woman
stands: at her feet the hearth-fire she has given us beside her the
invention she has devised for us, in the background the home she has
built for us.
At Newala, also, I have had the manufacture of pottery carried on
in my presence. Technically the process is better than that already
described, for here we find the beginnings of the potter’s wheel,
which does not seem to exist in the plains; at least I have seen
nothing of the sort. The artist, a frightfully stupid Makua woman, did
not make a depression in the ground to receive the pot she was about
to shape, but used instead a large potsherd. Otherwise, she went to
work in much the same way as Salim’s mother, except that she saved
herself the trouble of walking round and round her work by squatting
at her ease and letting the pot and potsherd rotate round her; this is
surely the first step towards a machine. But it does not follow that
the pot was improved by the process. It is true that it was beautifully
rounded and presented a very creditable appearance when finished,
but the numerous large and small vessels which I have seen, and, in
part, collected, in the “less advanced” districts, are no less so. We
moderns imagine that instruments of precision are necessary to
produce excellent results. Go to the prehistoric collections of our
museums and look at the pots, urns and bowls of our ancestors in the
dim ages of the past, and you will at once perceive your error.
MAKING LONGITUDINAL CUT IN
BARK

DRAWING THE BARK OFF THE LOG

REMOVING THE OUTER BARK

 BEATING THE BARK

WORKING THE BARK-CLOTH AFTER BEATING, TO MAKE IT

SOFT

MANUFACTURE OF BARK-CLOTH AT NEWALA

To-day, nearly the whole population of German East Africa is
clothed in imported calico. This was not always the case; even now in
some parts of the north dressed skins are still the prevailing wear,
and in the north-western districts—east and north of Lake
Tanganyika—lies a zone where bark-cloth has not yet been
superseded. Probably not many generations have passed since such
bark fabrics and kilts of skins were the only clothing even in the
south. Even to-day, large quantities of this bright-red or drab
material are still to be found; but if we wish to see it, we must look in
the granaries and on the drying stages inside the native huts, where
it serves less ambitious uses as wrappings for those seeds and fruits
which require to be packed with special care. The salt produced at
Masasi, too, is packed for transport to a distance in large sheets of
bark-cloth. Wherever I found it in any degree possible, I studied the
process of making this cloth. The native requisitioned for the
purpose arrived, carrying a log between two and three yards long and
as thick as his thigh, and nothing else except a curiously-shaped
mallet and the usual long, sharp and pointed knife which all men and
boys wear in a belt at their backs without a sheath—horribile dictu!
[51]
Silently he squats down before me, and with two rapid cuts has
drawn a couple of circles round the log some two yards apart, and
slits the bark lengthwise between them with the point of his knife.
With evident care, he then scrapes off the outer rind all round the
log, so that in a quarter of an hour the inner red layer of the bark
shows up brightly-coloured between the two untouched ends. With
some trouble and much caution, he now loosens the bark at one end,
and opens the cylinder. He then stands up, takes hold of the free
edge with both hands, and turning it inside out, slowly but steadily
pulls it off in one piece. Now comes the troublesome work of
scraping all superfluous particles of outer bark from the outside of
the long, narrow piece of material, while the inner side is carefully
scrutinised for defective spots. At last it is ready for beating. Having
signalled to a friend, who immediately places a bowl of water beside
him, the artificer damps his sheet of bark all over, seizes his mallet,
lays one end of the stuff on the smoothest spot of the log, and
hammers away slowly but continuously. “Very simple!” I think to
myself. “Why, I could do that, too!”—but I am forced to change my
opinions a little later on; for the beating is quite an art, if the fabric is
not to be beaten to pieces. To prevent the breaking of the fibres, the
stuff is several times folded across, so as to interpose several
thicknesses between the mallet and the block. At last the required
state is reached, and the fundi seizes the sheet, still folded, by both
ends, and wrings it out, or calls an assistant to take one end while he
holds the other. The cloth produced in this way is not nearly so fine
and uniform in texture as the famous Uganda bark-cloth, but it is
quite soft, and, above all, cheap.
Now, too, I examine the mallet. My craftsman has been using the
simpler but better form of this implement, a conical block of some
hard wood, its base—the striking surface—being scored across and
across with more or less deeply-cut grooves, and the handle stuck
into a hole in the middle. The other and earlier form of mallet is
shaped in the same way, but the head is fastened by an ingenious
network of bark strips into the split bamboo serving as a handle. The
observation so often made, that ancient customs persist longest in
connection with religious ceremonies and in the life of children, here
finds confirmation. As we shall soon see, bark-cloth is still worn
during the unyago,[52] having been prepared with special solemn
ceremonies; and many a mother, if she has no other garment handy,
will still put her little one into a kilt of bark-cloth, which, after all,
looks better, besides being more in keeping with its African
surroundings, than the ridiculous bit of print from Ulaya.
MAKUA WOMEN