Assignment for Foundation Course 2

M2022APCCP044

Shravanthi Padmanaban

Question 4)

Demographic change is defined as the phenomenon which refers to the changes in birth and
death rates in societies due to technological advancement, education, and economic
growth. A demographic transition is observed in all communities with different fluctuations
due to various social, political, and economic factors.
There are three components of Demographic change: births, deaths, and migration. The first
factor for the change in population is Natural Change. The change in population due to the
difference between the number of births and deaths is referred to as a Natural increase or
Natural change. This element is responsible for the different population pyramids for
countries. For example- Developing countries like India and Indonesia have a bottom-heavy
pyramid due to high birth rates, whereas Japan has a wider middle and a narrow top and
bottom. This organisation represents the number of people in different age groups.
India’s demographics represent a young population. More than half of the population is
under 30 years of age. In the last few years, India’s birth and death rates have neared the
global average. However, one consequential reason for population growth in India has been
the declining death rate. The birth rate in India has been markedly reducing. The recent
NFHS survey shows that the Total Fertility Rate has declined to 2.0 in 2019-2021 and has
fallen below the Replacement Level.
However, population trends across states vary significantly regarding fertility, mortality, and
age structure. States of southern India, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, West Bengal, and
Maharashtra are advanced in demographic transition, with low Total Fertility Rate (TFR),
which limits the population in the young age groups. In contrast, the Northern states of
Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh are still in the
early stages of demographic transition, with a TFR greater than the national average.
The second factor contributing to the change in population is migration. This comprises both
internal and external migration. Internal migration is the movement of people within the
country. It can be either intra-state or inter-state. On the other hand, external migration is
the movement of people to another country. According to the World Migration Report by
the UN, India has the largest emigrant population in the world.
Demographic Change has been a long-studied area, and numerous research and theories
have been used to explain the phenomenon. The Classic Model of Demographic Transition
suggests that social and economic development affects the mortality and fertility of the
population. The Malthusian theory focuses on three ‘positive checks’ – war, famine, and
disease (Malthus, 1978) that would control the human population. He also propounded the
concept of ‘preventive checks’ – birth control and celibacy to contain population growth by
reducing fertility rates.
Understanding and quantifying the drivers of demographic change can help develop policies
and programmes with appropriate social, economic, and environmental objectives.
Demographic dividends can also be leveraged to enhance labour productivity and
channelise growth. A population decline can lead to better resource distribution, increasing
per capita income and resource availability. Reduction in fertility rates will help reallocate
resources towards ensuring quality resources for children, leading to human capital
formation and rising labour productivity. It also leads to an increase in the labour force and,
thus, an increase in per capita productivity and economic output.
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