Developing the Project Plan

Developing the Project Plan

• The Project Network
– A flow chart that graphically depicts the sequence,
interdependencies, and start and finish times of the
project job plan of activities that is the critical path
through the network.
• Provides the basis for scheduling labor and equipment.
• Enhances communication among project participants.

• Provides an estimate of the project’s duration.

• Provides a basis for budgeting cash flow.

• Identifies activities that are critical.

• Highlights activities that are “critical” and can not be delayed.

• Help managers get and stay on plan.

6–3
 The Gantt Chart

The chart is named after Henry Gantt (1861–1919), who designed his chart around the years 1910–1915.
Gantt originally created his tool for systematic, routine operations. He designed this visualization tool to more
easily measure productivity levels of employees and gauge which employees were under- or over-performing.
6–4
 History of CPM / PERT

• Critical Path Method (CPM)

– E I Du Pont de Nemours & Co. (1957) for construction of new chemical plant
and maintenance shut-down adopted this for the first time

– Deterministic task times

– Activity-On-Node (AON) network construction

– Repetitive Nature of jobs

• Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

– U S Navy (1958) for the POLARIS missile program

– Multiple task time estimates (probabilistic nature)

– Activity-On-Arrow (AOA) network construction

– Non-repetitive jobs (R & D Work)

6–5
 Constructing a Project Network

• Terminology
– Activity: an element of the A
project that requires time.
– Merge Activity: an activity that
has two or more preceding B D
activities on which it depends.
– Parallel (Concurrent)
Activities: Activities that can C
occur independently and, if
desired, not at the same time.

6–6
 Constructing a Project Network (cont’d)
• Terminology
– Path: a sequence of connected, dependent activities.
– Critical path: the longest path through the activity
network that allows for the completion of all project-
related activities; the shortest expected time in which
the entire project can be completed. Delays on the
critical path will delay completion of the entire project.

A B D

(Assumes that minimum of A + B > minimum of C in length of times to complete activities.)

6–7
 Constructing a Project Network (cont’d)
• Terminology
– Event: a point in time when an activity is started
or completed. It does not consume time.
– Burst Activity: an activity that has more than one
activity immediately following it (more than one
dependency arrow flowing from it).
B
• Two Approaches
– Activity-on-Node (AON)
• Uses a node to depict an activity. A C
– Activity-on-Arrow (AOA)
• Uses an arrow to depict an activity.
D

6–8
 Precedence Relationships
 Precedence relationships determine a sequence
for undertaking activities, and specify that any given
activity cannot start until a preceding activity has
been completed.
Activity On Node approach

In the AON approach, the AON

nodes (circles) represent
activities, and the arcs
represent the precedence S T U
relationships between
them. “S” precedes “T” which
precedes “U”
9/81
AOA vs AON

6–10
 Basic Rules to Follow in Developing
Project Networks

1. Networks typically flow from left to right.

2. An activity cannot begin until all preceding
connected activities are complete.
3. Arrows indicate precedence and flow
and can cross over each other.
4. Each activity must have a unique identify number
that is greater than any of its predecessor activities.
5. Looping is not allowed.
6. Conditional statements are not allowed.
7. Use common start and stop nodes.

6–11
Activity-on-Node Fundamentals

6–12
Activity-on-Node Fundamentals (cont’d)

6–13
 Activity Relationships

S & T must be completed T & U cannot begin until S

before U can be started. has been completed.

S T

U S

T U

14/81
 Activity Relationships

U cannot begin until S & T have

U & V can’t begin until S & T been completed. V cannot begin
have been completed. until T has been completed.

S U S U

T V T V

15/81
Activity Relationships

T & U cannot begin until S has been

completed; V cannot begin until both T &
U have been completed.

S T V

16/81
 Dummy Activity
• A dummy activity shows a precedence relationship but reflects
no passage of time.

• The purpose of dummy activity is to maintain the logic of a

network diagram.

• Since no real activity takes place between two such events,

the dummy activity does not consume any resources.

• It also does not consume time duration.

• Dummy activities are used only in case of absolute necessity.

17/81
 A Hospital Facility

Immediate
Activity Description Predecessor(s) Responsibility

A Select administrative and medical staff.

B Select site and do site survey.
C Select equipment.
D Prepare final construction plans and layout.
E Bring utilities to the site.
F Interview applicants and fill positions in
nursing, support staff, maintenance,
and security.
G Purchase and take delivery of equipment.
H Construct the hospital.
I Develop an information system.
J Install the equipment.
K Train nurses and support staff.

18/81
 A Hospital Facility

Immediate
Activity Description Predecessor(s) Responsibility

A Select administrative and medical staff. — Johnson

B Select site and do site survey. — Taylor
C Select equipment. A Adams
D Prepare final construction plans and layout. B Taylor
E Bring utilities to the site. B Burton
F Interview applicants and fill positions in A Johnson
nursing, support staff, maintenance,
and security.
G Purchase and take delivery of equipment. C Adams
H Construct the hospital. D Taylor
I Develop an information system. A Simmons
J Install the equipment. E,G,H Adams
K Train nurses and support staff. F,I,J Johnson

19/81
 A Hospital Facility

Immediate
Predecessor
I
A —
B —
C A A F K
D B
E B
F A
G C Start C G Finish
H D
I A
J E,G,H
K F,I,J
B D H J

20/81
 A Hospital Facility

I
Paths are the sequence of
activities between a
project’s start and finish. A F K

Path Time (wks)

Start C G Finish

A-I-K 33
A-F-K 28
B D H J
A-C-G-J-K 67
B-D-H-J-K 69
B-E-J-K 43
E

21/81
 Example

22/81
 Solution

23/81
 Hospital Facility – Developing the Schedule

• The project team must make time estimates for

each activity.
• Activity times may be risky, in which case a
probability distribution can be used (CPM).
• For this project the times will be certain.
• Activity slack is the maximum length of time
that an activity can be delayed without delaying
the entire project.
– For Hospital facility, we can’t go beyond 69 weeks.
24/81
 Network Computation Process
• Forward Pass—Earliest Times
– How soon can the activity start? (early start—ES)
– How soon can the activity finish? (early finish—EF)
– How soon can the project finish? (expected time—ET)

• Backward Pass—Latest Times

– How late can the activity start? (late start—LS)
– How late can the activity finish? (late finish—LF)
– Which activities represent the critical path?
– How long can activity be delayed? (slack or float—SL)

• For simplicity, all projects start at time zero. 6–25

 What AON Nodes look like
Determined by the earliest finish
Slack is the difference, if any,
time of the precedent activity. If
between the earliest start and latest
there are two or more precedent
start times (or the earliest finish and
activities, this time is the same as
latest finish times).
precedent activity with the latest
“Earliest Finish” time. S = LS – ES or S = LF– EF
Slack
The earliest you can complete
an activity -- determined by
Activity
adding the activity time to the
Earliest Earliest
Start Finish
earliest start time.
This is the Latest
Latest Latest
Finish time minus Finish
Start Activity The latest you can finish an
the activity time.
Duration activity without delaying the
project completion date. It is the
same as the Latest Start time of
the next activity. If there are two
or more subsequent activities,
this time is the same as the
earliest of those “Latest Start”
26/81
times.
 Forward Pass Computation

• Add activity times along each path in the

network (ES + Duration = EF).

• Carry the early finish (EF) to the next activity

where it becomes its early start (ES) unless…

• The next succeeding activity is a merge activity,

in which case the largest EF of all preceding
activities is selected.
6–27
 Earliest Start and Earliest Finish Times
12
I 27

Earliest start time

15 Earliest finish time

0 A 12 12 F 22 63 K 69
12 10 6

12
C 22 22
G 57
Start Finish
10 35

0
B 9 9
D 19 19
H 59 59
J 63

9 10 40 4

9 E 33
24
28/81
 Backward Pass Computation

• Subtract activity times along each path in the

network (LF - Duration = LS).

• Carry the late start (LS) to the next activity

where it becomes its late finish (LF) unless

• The next succeeding activity is a burst activity,

in which case the smallest LF of all preceding
activities is selected.
6–29
 Determining the longest path
12
I 27 The Critical Path
15 takes 69 weeks

A
0 12 12 F 22 63 K 69
12 10 6

12
C 22 22
G 57
Start Finish
10 35

0
B 9 9
D 19 19
H 59 59
J 63
Critical Path 9 10 40 4

9 E 33
24
30/81
 Latest Start and Latest Finish Times
12
I 27
48 15 63

A
0 12 12 F 22 Latest 63 K 69 Latest
2 12 14 53 10 63 start 63 6 69
finish
time time
C
12 22 22 G 57
Start Finish
14 10 24 24 59
35

0
B 9 9
D 19 19
H 59 59
J 63
19
0 9 9 9 10 19 40 59 59 4 63

9 E 33
35 24 59

31/81
 A Hospital Facility

The critical path is the

longest path! I

Path Time (wks) A F K

A-I-K 33
A-F-K 28 Start C G Finish
A-C-G-J-K 67
B-D-H-J-K 69
B-E-J-K 43 B D H J

Project Expected
E
Time is 69 wks.
32/81
 The Project Network
Earliest start time I Earliest finish time
12 27
48 15 63 Latest finish time
Latest start time

A
0 12 12 F 22 63 K 69
2 12 14 53 10 63 63 6 69

C
12 22 22 G 57
Start Finish
14 10 24 24 59
35

0
B 9 9
D 19 19
H 59 59
J 63
19
0 9 9 9 10 19 40 59 59 4 63

9 E 33
35 24 59

33/81
Node Duration ES LS Slack

A 12 0 2 2
Activity Slack Analysis
B 9 0 0 0
C 10 12 14 2
I
D 10 9 9 0 12 27
E 24 9 35 26 48 15 63
F 10 12 53 41
G 35 22 24 2
H 40 19 19 0 A
0 12 12 F 22 63 K 69
I 15 12 48 36
53 63 6 69
J 4 59 59 0 2 12 14 10 63
K 6 63 63 0

C
12 22 22 G 57
Start Finish
14 10 24 24 59
35

0
B 9 9
D
19 19
H 59 59
J 63
19
0 9 9 9 10 19 40 59 59 4 63

9 E 33
35 24 59
34/81
 Floats
• Float is one of the very basic concepts essential for building network
diagrams and in turn a project schedule.

• The term “Float” implies “Fluid”, which in turn implies “Flexibility“. In

Project Scheduling, Float refers to the amount of scheduling
flexibility. Float is also popularly called “Slack“.

– Start Float (SF)

– Finish Float (FNF)

– Total Float (TF)

– Free Float (TF)

– Interfering Float (INTF)

– Independent Float (INDF)

 Start Float and Finish Float

• Start Float = SFi = LSi – ESi = Late Start - Early

Start

• Finish Float = FNFi = LFi – EFi = Late Finish -

Early Finish

• Is there any difference between SF, FNF and

Total Float?
 Total Float
• Total float is the amount of time an activity can be delayed
without delaying the project completion date. This is the type of
Float that is commonly referred to as “Float”.

• So, Total Float is about flexibility at the project level. It is about the
flexibility that an activity has in its execution without delaying the
Project finish date.

• Total float is calculated by subtracting the Early Start date of an

activity from its Late Start date (Late Start date – Early Start date),
or Early Finish date from its Late Finish date (Late Finish date –
Early Finish date).

– Total Float or Float = LS – ES or LF – EF

What are A,B and C’s Total Float?
5 7
B 2
7 9

2 4
TFA = 5-2 = 3
A 2
TFB = 7-5 = 2
5 7
TFC = 9-6 = 3

6 12

C 6
9 15
 Free Float?

• Free Float is “The amount of time that a schedule

activity can be delayed without delaying the early start
date of any successor”

• Free Float is about flexibility at the activity level. It is

about the flexibility that an activity has in its execution
without delaying its successor activity.
– Free Float = ES (of successor) – EF (of current)

– FFi = Min ESj – EFi ,  j

 What is A’s Free Float?

5 7
B 2
7 9

2 4
FFA = Min [(5-4), (6-4)]
A 2
5 7
FFA = 1

6 12

C 6
9 15
 Interfering Float
• Interfering Float is the time span in which the completion of an
activity may occur and not delay the termination of the project, but
within which completion will delay the start of some following activity

• Interfering Float is the amount of time a schedule activity can be

delayed or extended from its early start date without delaying the
project finish date

• The portion of total float which affects other activities but not the
project finish date.
– Interfering Float = Total Float – Free Float

– Interfering float = LFT (present) – EST (succeeding)

– INTFi = TFi – FFi

 What is A’s interfering float?

5 7
B 2
7 9

2 4
TFA = 3
A 2
FFA = 1
5 7
INTFA = 3-1 = 2

6 12

C 6
9 15
 Independent Float
• Independent Float is the time an activity might delay and not delay
the termination of the project, not delay the start of any following
activity and not be delayed by any preceding activity

• Maximum amount of time an activity can be delayed without

delaying the early start of the succeeding activities and without
being affected by the allowable delay of any predecessor activity

• Amount of float that can be used without affecting either of the

succeeding or preceding activity
– Independent Float (INDF) = Earliest Successors’ Early Start – Earliest
Predecessors’ Late Finish – Activity’s duration

– EST (succeeding) – LFT (preceding) – Duration (present)

– INDFj = Min ESk ( k) – Max LFi ( i) - Tj

 What is C’s independent float?

20 22
A 2 D 2
14

C 2

22 28

B 6 E 6
16
 C’s Independent Float

A
INDC = 20–16–2=2
B

C
D

E
Time
14 16 18 20 22
Example 2

47/81
Example 2

Calculate the ES, LS, EF, LF of all activities and also

determine the various floats

48/81
 Example 2 - Critical Path and Project Duration
Interferring Independent
Task Name Duration Predecessors Early Start Early Finish Late Start Late Finish Total Slack Free Slack
Float Float

A 7 days 0 7 0 7 0 days 0 days 0 days 0 days

B 2 days A 7 9 9 11 2 days 2 days 0 days 2 days

C 4 days A 7 11 7 11 0 days 0 days 0 days 0 days

D 4 days C 11 15 11 15 0 days 0 days 0 days 0 days

E 4 days D 15 19 15 19 0 days 0 days 0 days 0 days

F 3 days E 19 22 21 24 2 days 2 days 0 days 2 days

G 5 days E 19 24 19 24 0 days 0 days 0 days 0 days

49/81
 Find TF, FF, INDF and INTF for all activities

B 8 E 7

0 0
Start A 4 C 3 G 1 Finish
0 0

D 2 F 5
 Critical Path Calculations

4 12 12 19
B 8 E 7
4 0 12 12 0 19

0 0 0 4 4 7 19 20 20 20

Start A 4 C 3 G 1 Finish
0 0 0 0 0 4 9 5 12 19 0 20 20 0 20

4 6 7 12

D 2 F 5
10 6 12 14 7 19
 Floats

Activity ES EF LS LF TF FF INTF INDF

A 0 4 0 4 0 0 0 0

B 4 12 4 12 0 0 0 0

C 4 7 9 12 5 0 5 0

D 4 6 10 12 6 1 5 1

E 12 19 12 19 0 0 0 0

F 7 12 14 19 7 7 0 2

G 19 20 19 20 0 0 0 0
 So What’s the big deal about Float?
• The CPM can give the project duration
– The Critical Path has the longest duration

• The planner gets some insights on the schedule

– Can understand how much buffer each activity has

– Can allocate scarce resources better

– Also allows rescheduling activities while retaining

dependencies
 4 days late – Who’s fault?

7 15 15 22
B 8 E 7
0 0

0 0 7 7 13 23 24 24

Start A 4 C 3 G 1 Finish
0 0 5 0 0

7 10 13 23

D 2 F 5
6 7
Practice example : Stadium Case

6–55
 Assessing Risks
• Risk is a measure of the probability and
consequence of not reaching a defined project goal.

• A major responsibility of the project manager at the

start of a project is to develop a risk-management
plan.

• A Risk-Management Plan identifies the key risks to

a project’s success and prescribes ways to
circumvent them.
56/81
 Categories of Project Risk
• Strategic Fit: Projects should have a purpose that
supports the strategic goals of the firm.
1. Service/Product Attributes: If the project involves new service or
product, several risks can arise.
• Market risk comes from competitors.

• Technological risk can arise from advances made once the project has
started, rendering obsolete the technology chosen for service or product.

• Legal risk from liability suits or other legal action.

2. Project Team Capability: Involves risks from the project team itself
such as poor selections and inexperience.

3. Operations Risk: Information accuracy, communications, and

project timing.
57/81
 Statistical Analysis
• The Statistical Analysis approach requires that
activity times be stated in terms of three reasonable
time estimates for each activity.
1. Optimistic Time (a) is the shortest time in which a activity
can be completed if all goes exceptionally well.

2. Most Likely Time (m) is the probable time for an activity.

3. Pessimistic Time (b) is the longest time required.

• The expected time for an activity thus becomes…

a + 4m + b
te = 6
58/81
Probabilistic Time Estimates

Beta
Distribution
Probability

a m b Time
Optimistic Mean Pessimistic

59/81
Probabilistic Time Estimates

Normal
Distribution

Area under curve

Probability

between a and b is
99.74%

3s 3s Time
a m b
Mean
60/81
 Hospital Facility - Probabilistic Time Estimates

Calculating Means and Variances

Mean A F K
a + 4m + b
te = 6 Start C G Finish

Variance B D H J

2
s2 = ( b–a
6 ) E

61/81
 A Hospital Facility

Immediate
Activity Description Predecessor(s) Responsibility

A Select administrative and medical staff. — Johnson

B Select site and do site survey. — Taylor
C Select equipment. A Adams
D Prepare final construction plans and layout. B Taylor
E Bring utilities to the site. B Burton
F Interview applicants and fill positions in A Johnson
nursing, support staff, maintenance,
and security.
G Purchase and take delivery of equipment. C Adams
H Construct the hospital. D Taylor
I Develop an information system. A Simmons
J Install the equipment. E,G,H Adams
K Train nurses and support staff. F,I,J Johnson

62/81
 A Hospital Facility

Time Estimates (Weeks)

Optimistic Likely Pessimistic
Activity (a) (m) (b)
A 11 12 13
B 7 8 15
C 5 10 15
D 8 9 16
E 14 25 30
F 6 9 18
G 25 36 41
H 35 40 45
I 10 13 28
J 1 2 15
K 5 6 7

63/81
 A Hospital Facility

Calculating Means and Variances

I
Activity B
Most A F K
Optimistic Likely Pessimistic
(a) (m) (b)
C G
7 8 15 Start Finish

B D H J
7 + 4(8) + 15
te = 6
= 9 weeks
E
2
s2 = ( 15 - 7
6 ) = 1.78
64/81
 A Hospital Facility

Time Estimates (wk) Activity Statistics

Optimistic Likely Pessimistic Expected Variance
Activity (a) (m) (b) Time (te ) (s2 )
A 11 12 13 12 0.11
B 7 8 15 9 1.78
C 5 10 15 10 2.78
D 8 9 16 10 1.78
E 14 25 30 24 7.11
F 6 9 18 10 4.00
G 25 36 41 35 7.11
H 35 40 45 40 2.78
I 10 13 28 15 9.00
J 1 2 15 4 5.44
K 5 6 7 6 0.11
65/81
 A Hospital Facility

Probabilities
Critical Path = B - D - H - J - K
T = 72 days TE = 69 days
T – TE
s2 =  (variances of activities) z=
s2
s2 = 1.78 + 1.78 + 2.78 + 5.44 + 0.11 = 11.89
72 – 69
z= From Normal Distribution appendix
11.89
Pz = .8078  .81

66/81
A Hospital Facility - Probability of Completing Project On Time

Length of Normal distribution:

critical path Mean = 69 weeks;
s = 3.45 weeks

Probability of
meeting the Probability of
schedule is exceeding 72
0.8078 weeks is 0.1922

69 72
Project duration (weeks)

67/81
 The House Construction Problem
On the basis of company history, Build-Rite’s management has
determined the following time estimates for each activity.
Most
Immediate Optimistic Pessimistic
Activity Predecessors
Probable
Time ( a ) Time ( b )
Time ( m )
1 2 3 5 7
2 - 2 3 4
3 1 1 2 3
4 3 1 2 9
5 1 4 4 4
6 4 4 8 12
7 8 1 3 17
8 1 1 2 3
9 6, 7, 10 2 2 2
10 8, 5 2 3 4
 Questions

1) Determine the slacks and the critical path.

2) What is the probability that all the activities on the

current critical path(s) will be completed within 25
days?
 Critical Path Method (CPM)

Step 1: Forward pass

Step 2: Backward pass
Step 3: Calculating

Identify the critical path(s).

interpret the meaning of slacks and critical
activities.
 Notations

ES: Earliest Start LS: Latest Start TS: Total Slack

ES EF EF: Earliest Finish LF: Latest Finish FS: Free Slack

LS LF

2 3 8

3 4 6

2 0
0 3 5
3
4
9 END
Start 2 1
5 10

2
5

8
7
 Step 1: Forward Pass
8 10 10 13 13 21

2 3 8

3 4 6
21 23 23 23

0 0 0 3 3 8
8 12 12 15
2 0
0 3 5
3
4
9 END
Start 2 1
5 10

8 10 10 15

2
5

8
7

Notations

ES EF
ES: Earliest Start LS: Latest Start TS: Total Slack
LS LF EF: Earliest Finish LF: Latest Finish FS: Free Slack
 Step 2: Backward Pass
8 10 10 13 13 21
8 10 10 13 13 21
2 3 8

3 4 6
21 23 23 23

0 0 21 23 23 23
0 3 3 8 12 15
8 12
0 0 0 3 3 8
14 18 18 21 2 0
0 3 5
3
4
9
EN
Star 2 1 D
t 5 10

8 10 10 15
14 16 16 21
2
5

8
7

Notations

ES EF ES: Earliest Start LS: Latest Start TS: Total Slack

LS LF EF: Earliest Finish LF: Latest Finish FS: Free Slack
 Step 3: Calculating Slacks
TS = 0 TS = 0
The slacks are equal to zero for all the critical FS = 0
activities. 8 10 10 13 13 21 FS = 0
TS = 0
8 10 10 13 13 21
FS = 0 2 3 8 TS = 0 TS = 0
TS = 0 TS = 0 FS = 0 FS = 0
TS = 0 3 4 6
FS = 0 FS = 0 FS = 0
21 23 23 23

0 0 21 23 23 23
0 3 3 8
8 12 12 15 TS = 6
0 0 0 3 3 8
0 3 5
14 18 18 21 FS = 6 2 0
3
4
TS = 6 9
EN
Star 2 1 D
t 5
FS = 0 10

8 10
TS = 6 10 15 TS = 6
14 16 FS = 0 16 21 FS = 6
2
5

8
7

Notations

ES EF

LS LF
ES: Earliest Start LS: Latest Start TS: Total Slack
EF: Earliest Finish LF: Latest Finish FS: Free Slack
House Construction Problem
What is the probability that all the activities on the current critical path(s) will
be completed within 25 days?
Task Activity Optimistic Most Pessimistic
Time Probable Time
(a) Time ( m ) (b)
1 Walls and Ceiling 3 5 7
2 Foundation 2 3 4
3 Roof Timbers 1 2 3
4 Roof Sheathing 1 2 9
5 Electrical Wiring 4 4 4
6 Roof Shingles 4 8 12
7 Exterior Siding 1 3 17
8 Windows 1 2 3
9 Paint 2 2 2
10 Inside Wall Board 2 3 4
 Beta Distribution

Variance
2 Mean
s2 = ( b–a
6 ) te =
a + 4m + b
6
Expected Activity Time Variance
Task Optimistic Most Pessimisti Expected
Time Probable c Time Activity Variance
(a) Time ( m ) (b) Time
1 3 5 7 5 0.444
2 2 3 4 3 0.111
3 1 2 3 2 0.111
4 1 2 9 3 1.778
5 4 4 4 4 0.000
6 4 8 12 8 1.778
7 1 3 17 5 7.111
8 1 2 3 2 0.111
9 2 2 2 2 0.000
10 2 3 4 3 0.111
Variance b–a 2

( )
Mean a + 4m + b
te = 6 s2 = 6
 House Construction Problem
What is the probability that all the activities on
Task Expected Standard
the current critical path(s) will be completed
Activity Deviation
Time within 25 days? 2 3 8

1 5 0.667
3 4 6
2 3 0.333
3 2 0.333 2
3 5
4 3
4 3 1.333 9
2 1
10
5 4 0
5

6 8 1.333
7 5 2.667 2
5

8 2 0.333
8
7
9 2 0
10 3 0.333
 House Construction Problem

Task Expected Variance

• Assume that the activity times are
Activity independent random variables.
Time • The expected project duration is
1 5 0.444 E(X) = 5 + 3 + 2 + 3 + 8 + 2 = 23 days
2 3 0.111 • The corresponding variance is
3 2 0.111 V(X) =
0.444+0.111+0.111+1.778+1.778+0.000
4 3 1.778
= 4.222
5 4 0.000 • Assume that the project duration is normally
6 8 1.778 distributed (Based on the Central Limit
Theorem)
7 5 7.111
8 2 0.111
9 2 0.000
10 3 0.111
 House Construction Problem
If we plot for all T =12,13,…,32,
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
Probability
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32
Project Duration
• If the value of z is negative, first the value is to be taken from the z table same as the positive case and the
corresponding value of probability is subtracted from 1.
• Example : If T in above example was 18 days, z = -2.4342. From z table, probability for z = 2.4342 is 0.9925. So for
-2.4342 we get probability as 1-0.9925 = 0.0075 or 0.75%
• The project duration estimates could be more complicated when the effect of the other paths on the project duration
become significant.
Example 2

83/81
Example 2

84/81
Example 2

85/81
 Example 2

86/81
 Practical Considerations

• Network Logic Errors

• Activity Numbering

• Use of Computers to
Develop Networks

• Calendar Dates

• Multiple Starts and

Multiple Projects

6–87
Network Logic Errors: Illogical Loop

FIGURE 6.9

6–88
 Extended Network Techniques
to Come Close to Reality
• Laddering
– Activities are broken into segments so the following
activity can begin sooner and not delay the work.

• Lags
– The minimum amount of time a dependent activity
must be delayed to begin or end.
• Lengthy activities are broken down to reduce the delay
in the start of successor activities.
• Lags can be used to constrain finish-to-start, start-to-start,
finish-to-finish, start-to-finish, or combination relationships.
6–89
Example of Laddering Using
Finish-to-Start Relationship

6–90
 Precedence Network Analysis

• Extension of AON Network

– Allows concurrent activities to overlap

– Restraints not required to model logical relationships

– Schedule logic is easier and quicker to develop

– Easier to modify

– Better represents work flow in continuous operations

 Use of Lags

Finish-to-Start Relationship

FIGURE 6.13

Start-to-Start Relationship

FIGURE 6.14

6–92
Use of Lags Cont’d

Use of Lags to Reduce

Project Duration

FIGURE 6.15

6–93
New Product Development
Process

6–94
Use of Lags (cont’d)

Finish-to-Finish
Relationship

Start-to-Finish
Relationship

Combination
Relationship

6–95
 Types of Task Relationship

 FS – Finish to Start

Finish Start
• SS – Start to Start

Start Start

• FF – Finish to Finish

Finish Finish

• SF – Start to Finish
Start
Finish
 Leads & Lags

• Activity Lead – Lag

– Lag = time that a following activity is delayed from the
start of the previous activity

– Lead = time that an activity precedes the start or

finish of the next activity
 Leads & Lags

 Normal  Finish – Start  Finish – Start

 Finish - Start  Modified by a Lead  Modified by a Lag

 Lead and Lag are used to Modify Relationships

 Lead and Lag Can be used with any Relationship Type (FS, FF,
SS)
Network Using Lags

FIGURE 6.20

6–99
 Hammock Activities
• Hammock Activity
– A Hammock Activity is a schedule or project planning term for
grouping smaller subtasks that hang between two dates.

– Spans over a segment of a project.

– Has a duration that is determined after the network plan is drawn.

– Is used to aggregate sections of the project to facilitate getting the

right amount of detail for specific sections of a project.

– Is very useful in assigning and controlling indirect project costs.

– The size of the hammock, or the duration of the hammock is

calculated by the start date of the earliest task, and the finish date
of the last task.
6–100
Hammock Activity Example

FIGURE 6.21

6–101
 Dangling Activities

• Dangling activities
– Dangling activities (also known as dangles) are loosely-tied
activities in project schedules.

– They are activities with either open start dates or open end dates.

– All activities, except the first activity of a network, need to have a

predecessor; otherwise, they will have open start dates.

– Similarly, all activities, except the last activity of a network, need

to have a successor; otherwise, they will have open end dates
(also known as open-ended or open-end activities).
6–102
 Dangling Activities

• Dangling activities

6–103
 Finish to Start Lag

• Most common type of sequencing

• Shown on the line joining the modes
– Added during forward pass
– Subtracted during backward pass

0 A 6 6 B 11 Lag 4 15 C 22
Spec Design Design Check Blueprinting
6 5 7

This lag is not

the same as
activity slack
 Finish to Finish Lag

Two activities share a similar completion point

– The mechanical inspection cannot happen until wiring,
plumbing, and HVAC installation are complete

15 A 21
Lag 3
Wiring
6

10 B 16 16 C 24 24 D 25
Plumbing HVAC Inspection
6 5 1

10-105
 Start to Start Lag

Logic must be
maintained by both
forward and backward
30 A 36 pass
Wiring
6

Lag 3
33 C 38 38 D 39
31 B 32 HVAC Inspection
Plumbing 5 1
1

10-106
 Start to Finish Lag

• Least common type of lag relationship

• Successor’s finish dependent on predecessor’s start

30 A 36
Wiring
6
Lag 3

22 B 28 28 C 33 33 D 34
Plumbing HVAC Inspection
6 5 1

10-107
 Precedence Time Calculations

• Earliest Start Time

– A. EST of first Work Item (W.I.) is zero (by definition).

– B. EST of all other W.I.’s is the greater of these times

• 1) EST of a preceding W.I. if start-start relation.

• 2) EFT of a preceding W.I. if finish-start relation.

• 3) EFT of a preceding W.I., less the duration of the W.I. itself,

if finish-finish relation.

• 4) EST of a preceding W.I., plus the lag, if there is a lag

relation.
6–108
 Precedence Time Calculations

• Earliest Finish Time

– A. For first Work Item, EFT = EST + Duration.

– B. EFT of all other W.I.’s is the greater of these times

• 1) EST of W.I. plus its duration.

• 2) EFT of preceding W.I. if finish-finish relation.

6–109
 Precedence Time Calculations

• Latest Finish Time

– A. LFT for last Work Item is set equal to its EFT.

– B. LFT for all other W.I.’s is the lesser of these items:

• 1) LST of following W.I. if finish-start relation.

• 2) LFT of following W.I. if finish-finish relation.

• 3) LST of following W.I., plus the duration of the W.I. itself, if

there is a start-start relation.

• 4) LST of following W.I., less the lag, plus the duration of the
W.I. itself, if there is a lag in a start-start relation.
6–110
 Precedence Time Calculations

• Latest Start Time

– A. LST of first Work Item = LFT - Duration.

– B. LST of all other W.I.’s is the lesser of these items:

• 1) LFT of W.I. less its duration.

• 2) LST of following W.I. if start-start relation.

• 3) LST of following W.I. if less the lag, if there is a lag

relation.

6–111
 Floats on multiple dependency networks

• Total float = LFT – EST – Duration

• Free float shall be calculated in the same way as

earlier networks in CPM
 Find A’s SF and FNF

A 2

Lag = 4
Lag = 3

B 6
3 11
 A’s SF and FNF

0 2
SFA=0-0=0
FNFA=7-2=5 A 2
TFA=? 0 7

Lag = 4
Lag = 3

3 9

B 6
3 11
 Dependencies can be used in combination

Start-to-start & finish-to-finish:

5
? ?
0 ? 3 5 ? 9

a b
0 3 3 7 2 9

6
Example:
a: marketing action
b: measuring the effect of the action
lags: the effect needs time to appear, and to fade out
 Solution

0 0 3 5 2 9

a b
0 3 3 7 2 9

6
 Example 1

No Activities Duration Relationship Type

1 A 2 days

2 B 6 days 1 FS

3 C 11 days 1SS + 1 day lag

4 D 7 days 2SS+2 day lag, 2FF

5 E 4 days 2FS, 3FF+5 days

6 F 8 days Check G

7 G 3 days 4FS, 5FS, 6FF+4 day lag

Example 1
 Example 1 – Forward Pass
1. Start the project at activity A. ES = 0. EF= 0+2 = 2.
2. Activity B can start as soon as activity A is finished. ES = 2. EF=2+6=8.
3. Activity C can start 1 day after A has started. ES = 1. EF = 1+11 = 12.
4. Activity D can start 2 days after activity B has started. Also activity D finishes with B. Hence,
EST of D is greater of
• Early start of B + lag = 2 + 2 = 4 or Early Finish of B-duration of D = 8 - 7= 1. Hence we chose
EST of D = 4. Therefore EFT of D = 4+7= 11.

5. Activity E can start as soon as B is finished. Also activity E finishes with 5 days of lag from C’s
finish. Hence EST of E is greater of
• Early finish of E = 13 or Early Finish of C + lag-duration of E = 12+5-4= 13. Hence we chose
EST of E = 13. Therefore EFT of E = 13+4= 17.

6. Activity F has no restriction for its start (dangling activity). ES=0. EF = 0+8=8.
7. Activity G can start after both D and E are finished. ES (for G) = 17 (the greater of 11 and 17).
EF of G is greater of = 17+3 = 20 and EF (for F) + 4-day lag = 8+4=12. We chose EF = 20.
8. The calculated early finish date for the project is day 20 (Project duration is 20 days)
 Example 1 – Backward Pass

1. Start at activity G. LF = 20. LS = 20-3 = 17.

2. Activity F must finish 4 days prior to the finish of G i.e., LF = 20 – 4 = 16; LS = 16 – 8 = 8.
3. Activity E must finish before G can start. LF = 17. LS = 17 – 4 = 13.
4. Activity D must finish before G can start. LF = 17. LS = 17 – 7 = 10.
5. Activity C must finish 5 days before the finish of E. LF = 17 – 5 = 12. LS = 12 – 11 = 1
6. Activity B must finish before D has finished, on day 17, and before E has started, on day 13.
LF of B is the earlier of
• Latest Start of E = 13 or Latest Start of D – lag + duration of B = 10 – 2 + 6 = 14 or Latest Finish
of D = 17. Hence we chose LFT of B = 13. Therefore LST of B = 13 – 6 = 7.

7. Activity A must finish before B can start and Activity A must start before the start of C. Latest
Finish of A is earlier of
• LS of B = 7 or LS for C – 1 day lag + duration of A = 1 – 1 + 2 = 2. We choose LF = 2. Latest
Start of A = LF – duration = 2 – 2 = 0

8. Critical path is A-C-E-G

 Example 1 - Solution

2 8 4 11

10 17 17 20
7 13
0 2

13 17
17 20
0 2
1 12

13 17

0 8

1 12

8 16
 Example 2

1
4
b d
3 2

0 0 4 2
5
a e
0 4 4 4

3
c
7
ES TF EF

LS D LF
 Example 2 - Solution

4 9 7 1 8 9 10
4
b d
13 3 16 17 2 19

0 0 4 2 19 0 23
5
a e
0 4 4 19 4 23
9 0 16
3
c
9 7 16
 Example 3

3
b
3 1
f
3
0 2
4 5
a c e h
0 3 3 3 3

g
3
ES TF EF 1 2
d
a
3
LS D LF
 Calculations with finish-to-start lags

6 6 9
3
b
20 0 23
12 3 15 1
f
20 3 23
0 0 3 7 0 10 15 0 18 24 0 27
2
4 5
a c e h
0 3 3 7 3 10 15 3 18
3 24 3 27
18 3 21

g
4 6 7 21 3 24
1 2
d
10 3 13
 Example 4

3
b
2 5 1
f
1
0
2
4 5 h
a c e
0 1 3 4 3

2 2
g
5
1
d
4
 Example 4 Various dependencies

4 10 6
3
b
18 1 19
14 2 16 5 1
f
19 1 20
0 0 1 5 0 8 13 0 17 21 0 24
2
4 5 h
a c e
0 1 1 5 3 8 13 4 17 21 3 24
17 0 22
2 2
g
2 13 6 17 5 22
1
d
15 4 19
 EMR Project Case
No Activities Duration Predecessor
1 Electronic Medical Reference Project

2 Architectural Decision 5 days

3 Specification

4 Internal Specification 12 days 2

5 External Specification 7 days 2

6 Feature Specification 10 days 2

7 Design Phase

8 Voice Recognition 10 days 4SS+7 and 5

9 Case 4 days 4 and 5FS+1

10 Screen 2 days 4,5

11 Database 25 days 6

12 Microphone-soundcard 5 days 6 and 11FF-4

13 Digital Devices 7 days 6

14 Computer I/O 5 days 6

15 Review Design 5 days 8,9,10,11,12,13,14

 Key Terms

Activity Gantt chart

Activity-on-arrow (AOA) Hammock activity

Activity-on-node (AON) Lag relationship

Burst activity Merge activity

Concurrent engineering Parallel activity

Critical path Sensitivity

Early and late times Total slack

Free slack
6–129