UNIVERSITY OF MALTA

FACULTY OF SCIENCE
Department of Statistics & Operations Research

January/February 2018 Examination Session

SOR1211 – PROBABILITY Thursday 18th January 2018

Time of Examination: 10:00 – 11:35

 Attempt any number of questions, each question carries 28 marks.
 Aids allowed: calculator provided, statistical formulae booklet for non-statistics students,
computer provided.
 Do not use your personal UM IT account. Log in the computer using the Username and
Password provided. Log off when the examination is over.
 Data file and R Command Sheet are located in Q:/SOR1211 - Probability Jan 2018
 You may perform workings using your desired software application. Remember to frequently
save any temporary workings in Z:\Exam to safeguard your progress.
Note: The content of the Z:\Exam folder is NOT collected by the examiner and will not be
assessed.
 Answers obtained by computer software should be written on the script together with any
relevant working.
 Answers should be given to 2 decimal places where appropriate.

1. a. A code consists of two letters followed by two digits. Assume that there are 26 different
letters (5 vowels and 21 consonants) and 10 different digits and that each letter and digit
can be used only once.
i. Write down the set of all possible codes. [2 marks]
ii. Find the probability that the code consists of two vowels followed by two prime digits.
[3 marks]
iii. Find the probability that the code consists of two consonants followed by two odd
digits. [3 marks]

b. If X, Y and Z are three independent events, prove that

i. P  X  Y  Z '  P  X  P Y  P  Z ' , [2 marks]
ii. P  X  Y ' Z '  P  X  P Y ' P  Z ' . [3 marks]

c. Repairs of electric drillers were scrutinized. From this exercise some probability measures were
established about the following events:

Event B: the brushes require replacement

Event C: the coil requires replacement
Event S: the switch requires replacement.

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 The events B, C and S are independent and P  B   0.4, P  C   0.3 , P  S   0.2 . If a driller
is chosen for repair at random, find the probability that
i. the coil only needs replacement, [2 marks]
ii. exactly two components need replacement, [3 marks]
iii. the coil and the switch need to be replaced given that just two components require
replacement. [3 marks]
d. Let events B1 , B2 ,..., Bk constitute a partition of the sample space S, then for any event A in
S, prove that

P  Br  P  A Br 
P  Br A  k
. [7 marks]
 PB  P A B 
i 1
i i

2. a. If X is a discrete random variable with probability mass function P  X  x  and a, b are

constants, prove that
i. E  aX  b   aE  X   b , [2 marks]
ii. Var  aX  b   a 2Var  X  . [4 marks]

b. A fair die is tossed four times. The variable X is the number of sixes obtained in the four
tosses.
4
i. Prove that  P  X  x  1.
x 0
[3 marks]

ii. Write down the probability mass function of X. [2 marks]

iii. Find the cumulative distribution function of X. [2 marks]
iv. Find E  X  and var  X  . [4 marks]

c. A continuous random variable X has probability density function given by

f  x   k ln x for 1  x  e .
i. Find the value of k. [3 marks]
ii. Find the cumulative distribution function of X. [3 marks]
iii. Find P(1.5  X  2.5) . [2 marks]
iv. Find E ( X ) . [3 marks]

3. a. A discrete random variable X has a binomial distribution with parameters n and p and
its probability mass function is given by P[ X  x]  nCx p x (1  p)n x . Show that
n
i.  P[ X  x]  1 ,
x 0
[2 marks]

ii. E[ X ]  np and Var[ X ]  np(1  p) . [8 marks]

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 b. The number of complaints that a shop receives is a random variable having a Poisson
distribution, and the mean number of complaints per day is 0.33. Find the probability that
i no complaints are received in one day, [2 marks]
ii. less than 4 complaints are received in 10 days, [3 marks]
iii. more than five complaints are received in 15 days. [3 marks]

c. The following table shows the number of attempts required by a class of 200 students to
pass a compulsory examination.

Number of attempts 1 2 3 4 5 or more

Number of students 154 30 12 4 0

i. Fit a geometric distribution to this data. [4 marks]

ii. Calculate the expected frequencies for the above table assuming a geometric distribution.
[6 marks]

4. a. The probability density function of a continuous random variable X is given by

2
1  x 
1   
2  
f ( x)  e for    x   .
 2

  y2
Given that  
e 2
dy  2 , show that

i.  f  x dx  1 , [3 marks]


ii. E ( X )   and var( X )   2 . [8 marks]

b. The Swieqi local council wants to install new electric lamps in the streets of its locality.
The lifetime of these lamps is known to be exponentially distributed with a mean of 1000
burning hours. Find the probability that the lifetime of a lamp is
i. less than 700 burning hours, [2 marks]
ii. more than 1200 burning hours, [2 marks]
iii. between 900 and 1300 burning hours . [2 marks]

c. At Mater Dei Hospital, the distribution of blood pressure of patients in a particular ward is
normally distributed with mean 120mmHg and standard deviation 15mmHg. Find the probability
that
i. a patient has a blood pressure that is less than 90mmHg, [2 marks]
ii. a patient has a blood pressure that is more than 140mmHg, [2 marks]
iii. a patient’s blood pressure is between 110mmHg and 130mmHg. [2 marks]

d. Using the probability obtained in c(iii) and using the normal approximation to the binomial
distribution, find the probability that among 120 patients in the ward, less than 63 patients
will have a blood pressure between 110 mmHg and 130 mmHg. [5 marks]

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