UNIVERSITY OF MALTA

FACULTY OF SCIENCE
Department of Statistics & Operations Research

January/February 2020 Examination Session

SOR1211 – PROBABILITY Monday 3rd February 2020

Time of Examination: 14:30 – 16:05

 Attempt any number of questions, each question carries 28 marks.
 Aids allowed: calculator and computer provided. Statistical formulae booklet for non-
statistics students can be found in Q:\Statistics Booklets
 Do not use your personal UM IT account. Log in the computer using the Username and
Password provided. Log off when the examination is over.
 You may perform workings using your desired software application. Remember to frequently
save any temporary workings in Z:\Exam to safeguard your progress.
Note: The content of the Z:\Exam folder is NOT collected by the examiner and will not be
assessed.
 Answers obtained by computer software should be written on the script together with any
relevant working.
 Answers should be given to 2 decimal places where appropriate.

1. a. Given that A, B and C are independent events, prove that:

i. P  A ' B  C   P  A ' P  B  P  C  . [3 marks]
ii. P  A  B ' C '  P  A P  B ' P  C ' . [4 marks]

b. Anthony and Bernard play a game by tossing a die twice. Anyone who gets a double six wins
the game. Anthony plays first followed by Bernard. Find the probability that Anthony wins
the game. [5 marks]

c. In the Super Five lottery 5 numbers are drawn without replacement from a total of 45 distinct
numbers. Find the probability of guessing at least three of the five numbers drawn. [4 marks]

d. Let events B1 , B2 ,..., Bk constitute a partition of the sample space S, then for any event A
in S, prove that:
P  Br  P  A Br 
P  Br A  k [7 marks]
 P  Bi  P  A Bi 
i 1

e. Three machines X, Y and Z respectively manufacture 20%, 50% and 30% of the total output of
capacitors. The probability that a capacitor is defective is 0.01 given that it is produced by X;

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 0.04 given that it is produced by Y, and 0.06 given that it is produced by Z. If a capacitor is
picked at random, find the probability that:
i. it is manufactured by Y given that it is defective. [2 marks]
ii. it is manufactured by X or Z given that it is not defective. [3 marks]

2. a. A continuous random variable X has probability density function f  x  . Show that:

i. E  aX  b   aE  X   b . [3 marks]
ii. Var  aX  b   a Var  X  .
2
[3 marks]

b. A discrete random variable X is defined as ‘the number of heads obtained when three fair
coins are tossed simultaneously’.
i. Write out the probability mass function P  X  x  . [3 marks]
ii. Write out the cumulative distribution function P  X  x  . [2 marks]
iii. Find E  X  . [2 marks]
iv. Find Var  X  . [3 marks]

c. The density function of a continuous random variable X is given by:

f  x   k e0.1x for 0  x  2
Find
i. the value of k. [2 marks]
ii. the cumulative distribution function F ( x) . [2 marks]
iii. the median of X . [2 marks]
iv. P(0.5  X  1.5) . [2 marks]
v. E ( X ) . [4 marks]

3. a. The discrete variable X has a Geometric distribution with parameter p and probability mass
function P  X  x   p 1  p  .
x 1


i. Show that  P  X  x  1.
x 1
[2 marks]

1 1 p
ii Show that E  X   and Var  X   2 . [8 marks]
p p
iii. Find the range of values of p for which Var  X   5 . [3 marks]

b. It is known that on average a bank receives 6 bad cheques per day.

i. Explain why the number of bad cheques received by the bank per day has an approximate
Poisson distribution. [3 marks]
ii. Find the probability that less than 5 bad cheques are received on one day. [3 marks]
iii. Find the probability that more than 17 bad cheques are received on three days. [3 marks]

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 c. A company has five telephone operators. The number of busy telephone operators is a
random variable having a binomial distribution, and the probability that a telephone operator
is busy with an incoming call at any time of the day is 0.35. Find the probability that an
incoming call finds:
i. all of the telephone operators are busy. [2 marks]
ii. less than 4 telephone operators are busy. [2 marks]
iii. more than 2 telephone operators are busy. [2 marks]

4. a. The probability density function of a continuous random variable X is given by:

1
 2  x 
2
1
f ( x)  e 2
for x  ,   and   0.
2 2


/2 2
e y dy   2 , show that:
2
Given that

i. E[ X ]   . [4 marks]
ii. Var[ X ]   . 2
[6 marks]

b. In the region around a geological fault line, the time between aftershocks that follow a major
earthquake is a random variable having an exponential distribution with mean 36 hours. Find
the probabilities that the time between successive aftershocks will be:
i. less than 18 hours. [2 marks]
ii. more than 72 hours. [2 marks]
iii. between 40 hours and 100 hours. [2 marks]

c. The weights and heights of a group of students are each independent and has an approximate
normal distribution with means 55kg and 140cm and standard deviations of 7kg and 8cm.
Find the probability that a student chosen at random will have:
i. a weight greater than 60kg. [2 marks]
ii. a height greater than 150cm. [2 marks]
iii. both a weight greater than 60kg and a height greater than 150cm. [2 marks]

d. Use the normal approximation to the binomial distribution to determine the probability of
getting more than 32 sixes in 180 tosses of a fair die. [6 marks]

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