UNIVERSITY OF MALTA

FACULTY OF SCIENCE
Department of Statistics & Operations Research
January/February 2022 Examination Session

SOR1211 – PROBABILITY Monday 31st January 2022

Time of Examination: 10:00 – 11:30 + 30 extra minutes for uploading

In case of difficulty during the examination (issues with exam paper, electricity power cut,
internet connection, etc.), you may contact the Faculty of Science on the following:

Main Office Telephone Numbers: 2340 2450; 2340 2362

Office Number of the Secretary: 23402457
Faculty Mobile Number: 79010274 (CALLS ONLY)
Email address: science@um.edu.mt

Please note that for immediate feedback it is best to communicate using telephone. Use
email only if there are circumstances when the use of telephone is not possible. You should
also write down these numbers in case there is a power cut and will not have access to this
document.

Keep your mobile phone handy since important communications during the examination may
be communicated by the University through SMS.

Before submitting your work, it is imperative that you check that you are uploading the correct
file by using the preview function.

Please make sure that you have disabled any pop-up blockers and VPN before submitting to
Wiseflow as these might create problems.

By sitting for this examination, you acknowledge that you are aware of the provisions of the
regulations regarding conduct during examinations and you pledge to observe them.

Students may not obtain or seek to obtain advantage in an examination, or give or endeavour
to give assistance to other students.

Students who are found guilty of a breach of the University Assessment Regulations are liable
to disciplinary action which may result in the examination being cancelled and other
consequences.

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Other Important Points:
• Attempt any number of questions. Each question carries 28 marks.
• You can submit ONLY handwritten answers by writing down your answers on A4
sheets of paper.
• Write down your name and ID number on the first page of your script.
• Each page and each question need to be clearly numbered. A space for marking should
be left on the right-hand side of every page. Kindly refer to the template that is
available on VLE.
• Any material sent needs to be clearly legible. Kindly make sure that photos are taken in
good lighting conditions.
• Solutions pertaining to the same question should be presented together.
• Every question should start on a new page.
• Double-check that your script contains all the pages that you need to upload.
• Unless otherwise stated, you may use the lecture notes or other material provided to
answer these questions. You may also use any desired software of choice to arrive to
the requested answer. No credit will be given to examples lifted off lecture notes,
tutorial sheets and past papers.
• Answers should be given to 2 decimal places, where appropriate.
• Any relevant data files are provided in SOR1211 Jan 2022 Data Files.zip on Wiseflow.
• Once you have completed the examination, you are to send your answers in one pdf
using software such as Adobe Scan app, FastScanner and Microsoft Office Lens app and
upload it within the time indicated for the examination. The name you should assign to
the pdf file you are going to upload to Wiseflow should include the study-unit code.
• You have been allowed extra time to upload your responses. Make sure that you
upload the correct material as soon as possible in the allocated extra time.

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1. a. A number plate consists of three letters followed by three digits (the ordering of the
symbols is important). Assume that there are 26 different letters and 10 different digits
and that each letter and digit can be used more than once.
i. Write down an appropriate description of the set of all possible number plates.
[2 marks]
ii. What is the probability that the number plate starts with the letter A and ends with
the digit 0? [2 marks]
iii. What is the probability that all symbols in the number plate are different? [3 marks]

SOR1211 – JAN/FEB 2022 – M.B.I./M.S. Page 2 of 5

 b. A couple is ordering a three-course dinner at a restaurant. They may choose from 6
starters, 10 entrées and 5 desserts. Assume that the couple order a starter each, an
entrée each and a dessert each.
i. How many different meal combinations can the couple order? [2 marks]
ii. What is the probability that they order different starters, different entrées and
different desserts? [3 marks]
iii. What is the probability that they order either the same starter (and different entrées
and desserts) or the same entrée (and different starters and desserts)? [3 marks]

c. In a poll, 500 individuals of different ages were asked to specify if they are in favour with
a newly proposed law. The poll results, categorized by age group, are displayed in the
following table:

In Favour? \ Age Group 16 – 39 40 – 59 60+

Yes 98 72 56
No 43 75 84
Unsure 32 19 21

Find the probability that an individual picked at random:

i. falls in the age group 16-39 and is in favour of the proposed law; [1 mark]
ii. is against the proposed law given that they fall in the age group 60+; [2 marks]
iii. falls in the age groups below 60 years given that they are unsure. [3 marks]

d. In a trial, the probability that a defendant is convicted of a crime given that they are guilty is
89%, while the probability that a defendant is convicted of a crime given that they are innocent
is 6%. Suppose that 80% of all defendants are indeed guilty. Find the probability that a
particular defendant is:
i. guilty given that they are convicted of a crime; [4 marks]
ii. not convicted of a crime, regardless of whether they are guilty or innocent. [3 marks]

2. a. A group of travellers were asked which of the following three countries they have visited: Italy,
Germany and Sweden. Based on their responses, it was deduced that the probability of having
visited Italy is 0.78, the probability of having visited Germany is 0.7, and the probability of
having visited Sweden is 0.59. The probability of having visited Italy and Germany is 0.51, the
probability of having visited Italy and Sweden is 0.43, while that of having visited Germany and
Sweden is 0.36. The probability of a traveller having visited all three countries is 0.22. By

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 drawing a Venn diagram, find the probability that a traveller selected at random from this
group has visited:
i. none of these three countries; [3 marks]
ii. exactly one country; [3 marks]
iii. at least two countries. [2 marks]

b. A discrete random variable X has probability mass function given by P ( X = x) = k ( x 3 + 2)

for x = 1, 2,3, 4. Find:
i. the value of k ; [2 marks]
ii. the cumulative distribution function of X; [4 marks]
iii. P( X  2). [2 marks]

c. Let X denote a random variable with mean 2 and variance 1.21. If Y = 2X + 1, calculate the
mean and variance of the random variable Y. [2 marks]

d. A continuous random variable X has probability density function given by

kx 2 ln( x) for 1  x  3,
f ( x) = 
 0 otherwise.
Find:
i. the value of k ; [2 marks]
ii. E ( X ) and Var ( X ). [8 marks]

3. a. Suppose that 10% of the chips produced by a computer hardware manufacturer are defective.
A shipment of 100 such chips, is ordered.
i. Explain why, if the functioning of successive chips is independent, the random
variable X, representing the number of defective chips in the shipment, can be
assumed to follow a binomial distribution and hence write down the equation for
𝑃[𝑋 = 𝑥]. [3 marks]
ii Compute E ( X ) and Var ( X ) . [4 marks]
iii. Find the probability that at most 3 of the ordered chips are defective. [3 marks]

b. The probability that a bit transmitted through a digital transmission channel is received in
error is 0.1. Assume the transmissions are independent events and let the random
variable X denote the number of bits transmitted until the first error occurs.
i. Explain why X can be assumed to follow a geometric distribution. [2 marks]

SOR1211 – JAN/FEB 2022 – M.B.I./M.S. Page 4 of 5

 ii. Calculate the average number of bits that need to be transmitted before an error occurs.
[2 marks]
iii. Find the probability that between 3 and 7 bits are transmitted before an error occurs.
[3 marks]
iv. Find the probability that an error occurs after 20 bits are transmitted. [2 marks]

c. In a particular country, the number of policemen killed on the job in one month over a
period of 200 months is given in the following table:

Number of policemen killed 0 1 2 3 4 5 or more

Observed Frequencies 109 65 22 3 1 0

i. Fit a Poisson distribution to this data. [3 marks]

ii. Calculate the expected frequencies for the above table using the fitted Poisson
distribution. [6 marks]

4. a. The density function of a continuous random variable X is given by

1  x2 
f ( x) = exp  −  for x  .
2  2

 x2  
Given that  exp  −  = , show that E( X ) = 0 and Var ( X ) = 1 . [8 marks]
0  2 2

b. The decay rate, X, of Americium has an exponential distribution with a mean of 600 years.
Find the probability that a randomly chosen Americium particle will decay:
i. in less than 540 years; [3 marks]
ii. in more than 725 years; [3 marks]
iii. between 495 and 700 years. [3 marks]
iv. Calculate Var ( X ) . [2 marks]

c. The random variable X, representing the thickness of oak tree bark, is assumed to follow a
normal distribution with a mean of 15mm and a standard deviation 2.5mm. Find the
probability that an oak tree chosen at random will have bark thickness which is:
i. more than 15mm; [3 marks]
ii. between 14.3mm and 17.2mm; [3 marks]
iii. less than 14.3mm or more than 17.2mm. [3 marks]

SOR1211 – JAN/FEB 2022 – M.B.I./M.S. Page 5 of 5