Unit 12.

Landslide Hazards and Prevention

CIVL 1100
Discovering Civil and Environmental Engineering • Classification of landslides

Unit 12: Landslide Hazards and Prevention • Causes of landslides

• Slope stability analysis

• Landslide risk assessment

• Slope safety in Hong Kong

Professor Limin Zhang, PhD, FASCE
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering • Slope safety in the Wenchuan earthquake zone
The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

Man-made slope failures and natural

hillside landslides in Hong Kong 2
2

Landslides in Hong Kong 18 June 1972 – A Dark Day in Hong Kong

• Landslides are No. 1 natural http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nvcs80Ty7WE
hazards in Hong Kong
• More than 57,000 landslides
have been identified
• A single storm event can
trigger more than 400
landslides
• Systematic landslide risk
mitigation measures have
been implemented since 1977
• The current annual budget for
landslide prevention is The terrain in Hong Kong is mostly hilly, with Landslide at Sau Mau Ping on 18 June 1972
approximately HK$2.0 billion over 30% of the land steeper than 30 (Fatality = 67)
degrees, and most densely populated areas
extend as far as slopes that are too steep to
develop Landslide at Po Shan Road on 18 June 1972
(Fatality = 71)

3 4
 Classification of Landslides Rock Falls

5
5 6

Soil Slides Taipei, 2010 Rock Slide

Many cases such as
the Po Shan Road
landslide and the Siu
Mau Ping landslide

Taipei, 2010

Sliding body = 200,000 m3,

buried 3 cars and killed
4 people
7 8
 Rock Avalanche Debris Flow

9 10

Debris flows in Hong Kong Debris Flow – California USA

Natural terrain landslides and debris flows due to 7 June 2008 rainstorm La Conchita, CA, USA, 1995
A small seaside community
along Highway 101 north of
Santa Barbara. This landslide
and debris flow occurred in
the spring of 1995 due to
rainfall. Many people were
evacuated because of the
slide and the houses nearest
the slide were completely
destroyed. Fortunately, no
one was killed or injured.
11
12
 2006 Philippines Landslide Debris flow at Zhouqu, China
8 Aug. 2010
Fatality: 1400

Before

Sourthern Leyte, The Philippines, 17 Feb. 2006

10‐day heavy rain and a minor earthquake of Mag 2.6 induced this landslide with After
an official death toll of 1,126.
13

Causes of Landslides Causes of Landslides

• Human activities – cut slopes

• Human activities –
23 July 1994, Kwun Lung Lau,
slope cutting, deep Kennedy Town. Five fatalities
excavations, mining
• Rainfall/water
infiltration
• Ground water level
changes
• Earthquakes

15 16
15
 Causes of Landslides

• Rainfall‐induced landslides • Ground water level

Rainfall is the #1 cause of landslides in Hong Kong changes
Landslide at Qianjiangping Landslide
Sau Mau Ping was triggered by the
on 18 June
1972 (Fatality rising water level of the
Landslide at Sau = 67) Three‐Gorge Reservoir
Mau Ping in 1972 zone on 14 July 2003. The
(Fatality = 67) landslide had a volume of
about 24 x 106 m3,
covering an area of 1200 x
1976 Sau Mau 1000 x 20 m.
Ping Landslide
(Fatality = 18)

1972 Po Shan Road Landslide (Fatality = 71)

18
17

Slope Stability Analysis

• Earthquakes • Civil engineers are expected to check the safety of natural
ƒ A major earthquake slopes, cut slopes, and compacted embankments.
can induce tens of
thousands of
landslides. • This process, called slope stability analysis, involves
ƒ The 2008 Wenchuan determining and comparing the shear stress developed
earthquake induced along the most likely rupture surface with the shear
approximately 50,000
strength of the soil.
large landslides

19 20
Stability of an Infinite Slope: Factor of Safety Effect of Ground Water
Factor of safety, FS, is defined as The shear strength of soil depends on Ground water table at
the ratio of the shear strength of effective stress. the surface
the soil at the slip plane, τf, to
the mobilized shear stress to When the ground water table is at the
maintain stability, τm: ground surface:

τf can be calculated using the

Mohr‐Coulomb equation:
τ f = c '+ (σ n − u w ) tan φ'
where c’ = effective cohesion; φ’ =
friction angle; σn = normal stress; uw
= pore water pressure.
Forces on a slice of soil in an infinite slope
X and E components cancel For most soils, γ’ ≈ 1/2γsat; hence FS is
halved when the groundwater table is
at the ground surface.

For a dry infinite slope of zero cohesion, Conclusion: Unfavorable ground water
FS > 1.0 Stable conditions can greatly reduce the
FS = 1.0 Limit equilibrium stability of soil slopes !
FS < 1.0 Failure
21 22

Slope Stability Analysis Examples

Example 1:
Evaluate the stability of a very long dry sand slope. Slope angle αs = 30°; friction
angle of soil φ’ = 35 °.
Answer: FS = tanφ’/tanαs = tan35°/tan30° = 0.70/0.58 = 1.21 (>1.0, stable)
Example 2:
If the ground water table is at the ground surface, γsat = 19.8 kN/m3, γ’ = γsat –
9.8 = 10 kN/m3, evaluate the stability of the slope again.
Answer: FS = γ’/γsat tanφ’/tanαs = 10/19.8 x 1.21 = 0.61 (<1.0, instable)
Why does a slope fail due to rainfall infiltration?
It is generally recognised that rainfall‐induced landslides are caused by
changes in pore water pressures and seepage forces. Two distinct failure
mechanisms have been observed and analysed.
• Mechanism 1: The soil is initially in an unsaturated state, and slope
failure is due mainly to rainfall infiltration and a loss in shear strength
when soil suctions are decreased or dissipated.
• Mechanism 2: Significant build‐up of positive pressures is observed in
a low area on the slope or along the soil/bedrock interface.
Movements along the sliding surface lead to liquefaction along this
surface, resulting in rapid movements, long run‐out distances and
finally a complete liquefaction of the failed mass.

(Collins and Znidarcic, 2004; Zhang et al. 2011)

24
23 24
 Landslide Risk Assessment

Landslide Risk Assessment Human risk, denoted by annual loss of life, is

Civil engineers need to answer the following questions in R=P V E

managing landslide risks:
P = annual probability of the landslide;
• What might happen? V = vulnerability of the person to the landslide event;
• How likely is it? E = number of persons at risk.
• What is the damage or injury if it happens?
• What can be done about it?

25 26
25 26

Real‐time Profiles of Factor of Safety Real‐time Profiles of Probability of Failure

TT == 26 h,
0,h, rain
rain = ==
rain 20
2020 mm/h
mm/h
mm/h 6 h, rain = 20 mm/h
T=2
0
Unstable: FS < 1.0 Almost certain:
Critical: FS = 1.0 –1 .15 pf > 1 x 10-1
Stable: FS > 1.15 Likely:
pf = 10-1 – 10-2
Possible:
pf = 10-2 – 10-3
Unlikely:
pf < 10-3

Almostcertain
Almost
Almost certain
certain
Unstable
Unstable
Unstable
Likely
Likely
Likely
Critical
Critical
Critical Possible
Possible
Possible
Stable
Stable
Stable Unlikely
Unlikely
Unlikely
27 28
Zhang et al. 2011) 27 28
 HK’s Interim Risk Standards (GEO Report No. 75)
Societal Risk Criteria (500 m)
F/yr

10- 3
Personal Individual
Unacceptable
UNACCEPTABLE
Risk (IR) Criteria
10- 4

ALARP (“As low as

New Facility:
10- 5 ALARP
reasonably practicable)
IR with 10‐5 per yr
10- 6
Existing Facility:
10- 7 IR with 10‐4 per yr

scrutiny
REGION
INTENSE
SCRUTINY
Intense
10- 8

1 10 100 1,000
29 Fatality ≥ N 30
30

Risk Mitigation Strategies Landslide Warning Indicators

1.00E+00 Measurement Measurement
240mm/12h of surface of movement/
140mm/12h
movements stress related
1.00E-01 70mm/12h
features
30mm/12h
15mm/12h
Frequency of N or more fatalities (per year)

1.00E-02 Image system for

5mm/12h Advanced vibration
debris flow
monitors
monitoring
Warning/ 1.00E-03
Evacuation Measurement
1.00E-04 of triggering
Walls/barriers Slope
Unacceptable factors such
/Debris flow stabilization as rainfall
channels
1.00E-05
Crack gauge
Automatic rain
ALARP gauge
1.00E-06
Avoidance Measurement of
Broadly
underground
Scrutiny

Acceptable
Region
Intense

1.00E-07
movements

1.00E-08
1 10 100 1000 10000
Number of fatalities (N) Inclinometer
Piezometer
32
31 32
 Slope Safety in Hong Kong Debris Flows on Lantau Island, 2008
• Affected by black rainfall
Man‐made slope on 7 June 2008
failures and (140mm on Lantau)
natural hillside
landslides in
• In Hong Kong 300 mm
Hong Kong
rainfall on that day only,
Over 57,000 triggered 400 landslides
registered slopes on Lantau alone

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=R2uTKyK1c9k
33
33 34

Key Strategies for Reducing Landslide Risk in HK

Overall Landslide R=P V E
Risk in HK
Slope Safety System Minimize risk arising
from new
set up in Hong Kong developments
• Check new slopes
• Plan land use

• Upgrade &
maintain government Reduce risk by
slopes
improving the
• Promote private stability of existing
slope maintenance slopes

• Clear squatters
from hilly terrain
Reduce risk by
• Educate the minimizing the
public to take possible
precaution
consequences of
landslide
| | | | | |
1950 1960 1970 1977 1980 1990 2000 Year 30 Years of Efforts on Slope Safety, Geotechnical Engineering Office, Civil Engineering
36
35 and Development Department 36
 Landslide Prevention Measures Formulate Post‐2010 Slope Safety Strategy
(Natural Terrain Landslide Risk)
Pre‐1977 Stabilization by
old cut slope Upgraded to current
slope engineering
(Substandard) (~US$130 M/yr) standard)

2700 nos. 1945

~10,000 nos. catchments
other catchments (~ 5 km2) with 1966
(~ 100 km2) recent landslides
bordering close to
Retrofitted by year 2010 development development
18,000 nos.
engineered (550 slopes/yr)
(post‐1977)
~ 50%
39,000 nos. old
(pre‐1977)

By Catchment Number By Societal Risk (Total ~ 5

(Total > 10,000 nos.) PLL per yr)
37
(Ho & Ko 2008)

Airborne LiDAR
Multi‐return LiDAR is able to • Landslip Warning is
penetrate dense vegetation, broadcast on radio and
produce accurate ground profile television to alert the public
to the high risk of many
landslides as a result of
Heavy vegetated persistent heavy rainfall.
ground cover (Ho & Ko 2008)
Landslip Warnings are issued
by the Hong Kong
Observatory in consultation
with the Geotechnical
Engineering Office (GEO) of
the Civil Engineering and
Development Department.

LiDAR DEM overlaid by

LIC map and landslide
records 39
40
 Hong Kong Slope Safety Website
http://hkss.cedd.gov.hk

41 42
41 42

Four-Girl
Mountains
Slope Safety in the Wenchuan Earthquake Zone 6250 m
Jiuzhai /
Huanglong

• The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake triggered over 50,000

landslides, which caused tremendous damage.
• Engineers faced landslide hazards during the
reconstruction in the quake zone.
• HKUST assisted in the post‐earthquake construction in the
quake zone.

Wolong Giant
Panda Reserve
Yingxiu
Epicenter
2008-05-12 Ms8级强震

43 44
43
Topographic Conditions along Province Road PR303 Niumian
Gully

Yingxiu
Town
5100m

Hongchun
3700m
Ravine Province
1620m
Road 303

K34

Gengda
K19
Wolong Bauhinia tunnel
K14 K11 K6
3120m Nanhua tunnel
4000m K1
880m
2760m Yingxiu

ƒ 80% of the road from Yingxiu to Gengda (18 km) was buried or severely damaged.
45 46
45 ƒ The main hazards are collapses and associated loose soil deposits on the steep terrains. 46

Hazards shortly after the

earthquake

Tang et al. 2011

Time: August 14, 2010 at 3:00 A.M.
Basin area: 5.35 km2
Basin relief: 1.26 km
Landslide volume: 3.84 x 106 m3 47 48
Debris fan volume: 0.71 x 106 m3
Illustrated Incidents at Bauhinia Tunnel
6 July 2010

7.6

4 July 2011
22/6/2010
22/6/2010

49 50
49 50

Debris Flows on 13 August 2010 Debris Flows on 4 July 2011

ƒ Debris volume: around

1 million m3
ƒ Damaged road length:
1100 m
2m
ƒ The water level rose
nearly 21 m
ƒ The outlet of the
Nanhua Tunnel was
buried

51 52
51
 Ranking of the Risks of Soil Deposits Effectiveness of Risk Mitigation Measures
We identified 305 hanging soil deposits along the We evaluated the effectiveness of various engineering measures for risk
road, and ranked them mitigation, and assisted in the establishment of a landslide warning system.
1.00E-01 1.00E-01
Shortly after the earthquake Shortly after the earthquake
17
After cleaning Long tunnel scheme
1.00E-02 1.00E-02
After installation of barriers With warning system
18
9

Frequency of N or more fatalities per year

Frequency of N or more fatalities per year

Long tunnel scheme
10 11
1.00E-03
1 With warning system 1.00E-03
6 22
16 Unacceptable
23 20 5
25 3 1.00E-04 Unacceptable 1.00E-04
12 8

1.00E-05 1.00E-05
24 13
2 ALARP
14 19 ALARP
1.00E-06 1.00E-06
15
4 7 21

Scrutiny

Scrutiny
Intense
Region
1.00E-07 Broadly

Intense
Region
1.00E-07 Broadly
Acceptable Acceptable

1.00E-08 1.00E-08
0 1 10 100 1000 10000 0 1 10 100 1000 10000
Number of fatalities, N Number of fatalities, N

Landslides Debris flows

53 54

Summary Thank you!

• Main causes of landslides

– Rainfall is the #1 cause for landslides in Hong Kong
– Human activities
– Groundwater level changes
– Earthquakes
• Landslide risk can be quantified in terms of societal risk and
individual risk
• Great effort has been made to mitigate the landslide risk in
Hong Kong
• We need to learn to live with landslides

55
55 56