Fall 2022

Course Title: Investment Analysis

Course Code: FIN4013

Quiz No. 3
Course Instructor: Mr. Mushtaq Hassan

Section: A Program: BBA Date: 24th January 2024

Time Allowed: 45 Minutes Maximum Marks: 15 Obtained Marks:

Program Objective: Course Objective: Course Learning Objective:

PEO1, PEO2, PEO3 C2, C3 CLO3, CLO4, CLO5

TO BE FILLED IN BY THE STUDENT

Student Name: Hamza zafar Registration No: L1F19BBAM0594 Sr. No:

Instructions:

Cheating will be strictly penalized

Exchange of any material is not allowed.
No extra time will be given to students.
Use your own understanding to answer the questions.
Question 1

Why are the cyclical and structural changes important to consider while doing
industry analysis?

Ans: Cyclical and structural changes are crucial factors to consider in industry analysis because
they can significantly impact the performance and prospects of businesses within a particular
sector. Here's why each of these factors is important:

1. Cyclical Changes

Economic Sensitivity: Industries often go through economic cycles, experiencing periods of

expansion and contraction. Understanding the cyclical nature of an industry helps investors
anticipate how the demand for its products or services might change during different phases of
the economic cycle.

Impact on Revenue and Profitability: Cyclical changes can affect a company's revenue and
profitability. For example, during economic downturns, consumer spending may decrease,
impacting industries like retail and luxury goods. Conversely, industries like construction may
thrive during economic upswings.

2. Structural Changes:

Long-Term Trends: Structural changes refer to shifts in the underlying dynamics of an

industry that can be longer-term in nature. These changes may result from technological
advancements, regulatory shifts, demographic trends, or changes in consumer preferences.

Adaptability and Innovation: Industries that can adapt to structural changes are likely to
thrive, while those that resist or are slow to adapt may face challenges. Investors need to assess
how well companies within an industry are positioned to navigate and capitalize on structural
changes.

Competitive Landscape: Structural changes can alter the competitive landscape, creating
opportunities for new entrants or leading to the decline of established players. Analyzing the
competitive dynamics within an industry is essential for making informed investment decisions.

Considering both cyclical and structural changes allows investors to develop a more
comprehensive understanding of the risks and opportunities associated with a particular industry.
This analysis is fundamental for making informed investment decisions, as it helps investors
align their investment strategies with the expected trends and challenges that an industry may
face over time.

Question 2

Discuss the following 2 risk factors with relevant examples:

1. Business Risk:

Definition:

Business risk refers to the potential for financial loss or operational disruption arising from
uncertainties and challenges inherent in the nature of a particular industry or company. It
encompasses factors such as competition, market demand, regulatory changes, technological
shifts, and management effectiveness.

Examples:

Cyclical Industries: Companies operating in cyclical industries, such as automotive or

construction, face business risk due to their sensitivity to economic cycles. During economic
downturns, demand for their products may decline, impacting revenue and profitability.
Conversely, during economic upswings, they may experience increased demand.

Technological Disruption: Companies relying heavily on specific technologies may face

business risk if those technologies become obsolete. For instance, traditional print media
companies faced significant challenges with the rise of digital platforms, impacting their revenue
models and market positions.

Regulatory Changes: Industries subject to frequent or unpredictable regulatory changes, such

as healthcare or finance, encounter business risk. Alterations in regulations can affect operating
costs, market access, and compliance requirements, impacting financial performance.

2. Liquidity Risk

Liquidity Risk:

Definition:
Liquidity risk refers to the potential inability of a company to meet its short-term financial
obligations due to insufficient cash or easily marketable assets. It arises when a firm cannot
convert its assets into cash quickly enough to cover its liabilities.

Examples:

Working Capital Constraints: Companies with inadequate working capital management may
face liquidity risk. If a company has slow inventory turnover or delayed accounts receivable
collections, it may struggle to meet short-term obligations, risking disruptions to operations.

Debt Maturity Mismatch: A company with mismatched debt maturities may encounter
liquidity risk. If a significant portion of a company's debt is due in the short term, it could
struggle to refinance or repay its obligations if market conditions or credit availability
deteriorate.

Market Conditions: Economic downturns or financial crises can impact a company's ability to
access credit or sell assets quickly. Illiquid markets can exacerbate liquidity risk, making it
challenging for companies to raise capital or adjust their asset portfolios in response to changing
circumstances.

Understanding and managing these risks is crucial for investors and decision-makers. Mitigating
business risk often involves strategic planning, diversification, and effective risk management
practices. On the other hand, managing liquidity risk requires prudent financial management,
maintaining adequate reserves, and ensuring a well-structured balance between short-term assets
and liabilities.

Question 3

One of advantages of technical analysis is “fundamental analyst must process new

information and quickly determine a new intrinsic value, but technical analyst merely has
to recognize a movement to a new equilibrium”. Explain this statement.

The statement highlights a perceived advantage of technical analysis over fundamental analysis,
emphasizing the difference in the analytical approaches when processing new information.

Explanation:
Fundamental Analysis Perspective:

Fundamental analysts assess a company's intrinsic value by examining various financial and
economic factors, such as earnings, revenue, dividends, and macroeconomic conditions.

When new information becomes available (e.g., earnings reports, economic data, or management
announcements), fundamental analysts need to interpret and incorporate this information into
their models to reevaluate the intrinsic value of the asset.

This process requires a detailed analysis, often involving complex calculations and judgments
about the impact of new information on the company's future cash flows and overall financial
health.

The fundamental analyst must adjust their valuation model to reflect the changing fundamentals
of the company.

Technical Analysis Perspective:

Technical analysts, on the other hand, focus on historical price and volume data to identify trends
and patterns in the market.

The statement suggests that when new information emerges, technical analysts do not need to
reevaluate the intrinsic value of an asset in the same comprehensive manner as fundamental
analysts.

Instead, technical analysts are concerned with recognizing changes in the equilibrium between
buying and selling forces in the market. They observe price movements and patterns, aiming to
identify trends or shifts in market sentiment.

Technical analysis assumes that historical price movements repeat, allowing analysts to make
predictions based on chart patterns and trend analysis without delving into the intrinsic value of
the underlying asset.

Implication:

The advantage suggested here is that technical analysts may be able to react more quickly to
changing market conditions without the need for a detailed reassessment of a company's
fundamentals. This is because technical analysis focuses on observable patterns and trends,
allowing practitioners to respond to shifts in market sentiment without the depth of analysis
required by fundamental analysts.

It's essential to note that the effectiveness of technical analysis versus fundamental analysis is a
subject of ongoing debate in the financial community. Some investors may prefer one approach
over the other, while others use a combination of both to make well-informed investment
decisions.