Journal of Earth System Science

New Earthquake Zone Map of India

--Manuscript Draft--

Manuscript Number: JESS-D-23-00897

Full Title: New Earthquake Zone Map of India

Article Type: Original Study

Keywords: IS1893; Earthquake Zones; Zone Map; probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis;
deterministic earthquake hazard analysis; site amplification

Abstract: The paper describes the procedure employed for developing a new earthquake zone
map of India as part of the seventh revision of the Indian Earthquake Standard IS 1893
(Part 1). This new zone map is based primarily on a probabilistic earthquake hazard
analysis performed at a grid spacing of 0.1°×0.1° in longitudes and latitudes of the
entire country. But, for grid locations with small probabilistic hazard estimates, a
minimum level of hazard has been estimated deterministically for the most likely
maximum magnitude of an earthquake on the nearest mapped fault. Based on the
results, the Indian landmass is grouped into five zones, designated as Earthquake
Zones II, III, IV, V and VI. The peak ground accelerations corresponding to a return
period of 2,475 years in these zones are estimated as 0.15g, 0.30g, 0.45g, 0.60g and
0.75g, which includes site amplification effect. Common normalized response spectra
are recommended for all five zones, one for each of the three different site soil
conditions, as an interim measure.

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1 New Earthquake Zone Map of India

2
3 Raghukanth,S.T.G., Bhargavi,P., Sreejaya,K.P., Gupta,I.D., Roshan,A.D., Sinha,R., Chopra,S.,
1 4 Srinagesh,D., Sheth,A.R., Goswami,R., Mandal,H.S.,Ramjivan Singh, Chaudhary,J.K.,
2 5 ArunKumar,S., and Murty,C.V.R.
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7 9 *For correspondence:
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9 10 Email: bhargavi19892@gmail.com
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56 Abstract
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58 The paper describes the procedure employed for developing a new earthquake zone map of
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2 59 India as part of the seventh revision of the Indian Earthquake Standard IS 1893 (Part 1). This new
3 60 zone map is based primarily on a probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis performed at a grid
4 61 spacing of 0.1°×0.1° in longitudes and latitudes of the entire country. But, for grid locations with
5 62 small probabilistic hazard estimates, a minimum level of hazard has been estimated deterministically
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7 63 for the most likely maximum magnitude of an earthquake on the nearest mapped fault. Based on the
8 64 results, the Indian landmass is grouped into five zones, designated as Earthquake Zones II, III, IV, V
9 65 and VI. The peak ground accelerations corresponding to a return period of 2,475 years in these zones
10 66 are estimated as 0.15g, 0.30g, 0.45g, 0.60g and 0.75g, which includes site amplification effect.
11 67 Common normalized response spectra are recommended for all five zones, one for each of the three
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13 68 different site soil conditions, as an interim measure.
14 69
15 70 Keywords
16 71 IS1893, Earthquake Zones, Zone Map, probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis, deterministic
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72 earthquake hazard analysis, site amplification
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 77 1. INRODUCTION

78 The Indian plate can be divided into three main tectonic domains, namely: (a) the Himalaya in the
79 north, (b) the Indo-Gangetic Plains adjoining the Himalaya (to its south), and (c)
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80 the peninsular India in the south. Each of these broad geographical regions of India is characterized
3 81 by distinctly different levels of earthquake hazard and the associated earthquake risks. Thus, the first
4 82 earthquake regionalization map of India prepared in 1935 by the Geological Survey of India [Auden,
5 83 1959], which has demarcated landmass into heavy, moderate, and light-to-no damage, conforms
6 84 closely to the three geographical divisions of India. The entire Himalayan region is vulnerable to
7
8 85 high-magnitude earthquakes due to the building up and release of stresses by the continuing
9 86 movement of the Indian Plate towards the Eurasian Plate at a pace of ~50 mm per year, of which
10 87 ~20mm per year is exhibited in the form of contraction across the Himalaya [Jade et al., 2017]. Since
11 88 the late 1800s, the Himalayan region has a recorded history of four great earthquakes, namely the
12
89 1897 Shillong (M8.1) Earthquake, the 1905 Kangra (M7.9) Earthquake, the 1934 Bihar–Nepal
13
14 90 (M8.3) Earthquake, and the 1950 Assam–Tibet (M8.6) earthquake; three of which (other than the
15 91 1897 Shillong earthquake) are associated directly with the Himalayan plate boundary. Many of the
16 92 Himalayan segments have been identified as seismic gaps, where disastrous earthquakes are
17 93 suspected to occur anytime in the future [Khattri, 1987; Bilham et al., 2001].
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19 94 The densely populated Indo-Gangetic Plains adjoining the Himalayan Collision Zone are highly
20 95 vulnerable to the major Himalayan as well as the strong local earthquakes due to thick sediments
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96 amplifying the ground motions. Also, isolated parts of Peninsular India are prone to moderate-
23 97 magnitude earthquakes that may cause significant loss of life and property. These corroborations
24 98 have been amply demonstrated by several more recent damaging earthquakes between the years
25 99 1988-2015 in different parts of the country and the neighbouring areas. These include the 1988
26 100 Bihar-Nepal (M6.8), 1991 Uttarkashi (M6.8), 1993 Killari (M6.3), 1997 Jabalpur (M6.1), 1999
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28 101 Chamoli (M6.5), 2001 Bhuj (M7.7), 2002 Diglipur (M6.5), 2004 Indian Ocean (M9.3), 2005
29 102 Kashmir (M7.6), 2011 Sikkim (M6.9) and 2015 Nepal (M7.9) Earthquakes. The reconnaissance
30 103 studies after the above earthquakes revealed that most deaths were caused primarily by the collapse
31 104 of buildings and structures that did not comply with provisions of earthquake-resistant design. A
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105 similar magnitude of earthquakes in many other parts of the world did not lead to such enormous
34 106 losses of lives, where the buildings and structures were built with virtues for earthquake resistance
35 107 and under the supervision of strict techno-legal regimes. Thus, it is prudent to make earthquake risk
36 108 mitigation an integral part of the development process in India through the earthquake-resistant
37 109 design of buildings and infrastructure facilities based on quantitatively derived, more realistic zone
38
39 110 maps of the country that are developed using data-driven earthquake hazard analysis methods.
40 111 The need for earthquake-resistant design of structures was felt strongly at the beginning of the 20th
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42 112 century as an aftermath of several destructive earthquakes in different parts of the world.
43 113 Development of building design codes began in Italy following the 1908 Messina disaster, in Japan
44 114 following the 1923 Kanto disaster, and in California after the 1925 Santa Barbara earthquake. The
45 115 first design code that was introduced in Japan in 1924, proposed to define the earthquake effects by
46
116 an equivalent static horizontal force equal to a small fraction (termed as seismic coefficient) of the
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48 117 weight of the building. In India, the values of seismic coefficients first suggested were in the range of
49 118 0.05–0.15 [Kumar, 1935] after the 1931 M7.4 Mach earthquake. However, the recommendations for
50 119 earthquake loads were not formulated in India till the first code for earthquake-resistant design of
51 120 structures that was published in 1962 (IS 1893 – 1962), which proposed the values of seismic
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121 coefficients for different types of structures in each zone. Since then, the zone map and the seismic
54 122 coefficients in the Indian code have been revised three times in 1966, 1970, and 2002. The original
55 123 map of 1962 as well as the subsequent revisions was based mainly on the distribution of the
56 124 epicenters and the associated macro-seismic intensity levels due to significant past earthquakes with
57 125 only limited use of the tectonic and geological setup of the country [ISI, 1982]. Due to the
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59 126 inadequacy of the required input data so far, no formal earthquake hazard analyses were adopted in
60 127 developing these zone maps of India.
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62 128 Many of the international earthquake design codes (e.g., Eurocode 8 and ASCE 07-16) also started
63 129 with zone maps based on the historic occurrence of damaging earthquakes. But, over the years, they
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 130 updated the zones to reflect the resulting relative hazard based on a stated quantitative method. For
131 instance, Eurocode 8 sub-divides the national territories into zones based on the local seismicity and
132 describes the hazard in terms of a single parameter, namely PGA (peak ground acceleration) on Site
133 Class A corresponding to a reference return period of the earthquake action. On the other
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2 134 hand, ASCE 07-16 and UBC (Uniform Building Code) evolved from zone maps to spectral
3 135 acceleration maps for periods of 0.2s, and 1s, all corresponding to a 2,475-year return period.
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5 136 Though several probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis studies had been attempted in India since
6 137 the late 1970s till the last revision of the zone map in 2002 [e.g., Basu and Nigam, 1977; Khattri et
7 138 al., 1984; Bhatia et al., 1999], these were mainly of academic interest and none could be utilized to
8 139 have a quantitative zone map for Indian code. But, a sufficiently comprehensive database on past
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140 seismicity, tectonic and geologic setup, and strong motion acceleration records has become available
11 141 in India since 2002, which has facilitated much improved probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis in
12 142 several recent studies [e.g., Jaiswal and Sinha, 2007; NDMA, 2010; Nath and Thingbaijam, 2012;
13 143 Sitharam and Sreevalsa, 2013; Mandal et al., 2013; Sreejaya et al., 2022].
14
15 144 This paper focuses on how a new zone map has been derived using the results of our recent
16 145 probabilistic earthquake hazard assessment (PEHA) study for India and the neighbouring regions
17 146 [Sreejaya et al., 2022]. The more common current practice is to present the results of earthquake
18
19 147 hazard analysis as contour maps of a ground motion parameter, say PGA or Response Spectral
20 148 Acceleration (Sa) at specific natural periods of interest (0.2s, 0.5s, and 1s). But, for ease of use by the
21 149 practicing engineers, the results of the detailed earthquake hazard analysis have been judiciously
22 150 optimised into a single zone map similar to the existing one, rather than the multiple contour
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151 maps. The present study provides the reader with a clear illustration of the procedure involved in
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25 152 obtaining the zone map, especially the qualitative aspects (like the considerations adopted, the
26 153 negotiations undertaken, and the broad-brush approximations made to address the absence of needed
27 154 data, like the thickness of sediment deposits). The zone map presented herein has been accepted by
28 155 the BIS (Bureau of Indian Standards) for inclusion in the new revision of IS 1893 (Part 1).
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31 157
32 158 2. BRIEF HISTORY OF ZONE MAPS
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34 159 Understanding the earth, its varying attributes and complexity, and seismicity pattern are foci of
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160 worldwide research. To differentiate the areas of risk for the common man, the concept of
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37 161 earthquake zones was implemented. Many countries worldwide captured the past earthquake activity
38 162 to produce Earthquake Zone Maps. Several different systems are developed ranging from numerical
39 163 zones to colored zones, where numbers or colors represent different levels of earthquake shaking
40 164 intensity expected therein.
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42 165 India too has diverse geology spread over its 3.287 million km2 land area. Initial attempts to
43 166 prepare an earthquake hazard zone map of the country date back to the 1930s. These
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167 were subjective and based on deterministic assessments. Based on the history of earthquake events
46 168 on its landmass, India began to demarcate land areas to reflect the likelihood of damaging
47 169 earthquakes. The early efforts of earthquake safety in India were motivated by
48 170 two great earthquakes, namely the 1897 Assam and the 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquakes, whose
49 171 damage was reported in literature through intensity maps. Also, another devastating event occurred
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51 172 in 1931 near Quetta (now in Pakistan) with an intensity of VIII on the Rossi Forel (RF) scale. The
52 173 aftermath of this event resulted in a new project entailing the design of earthquake-resistant housing
53 174 quarters for the railways. The outcome of the project was the first-ever earthquake zone map for
54 175 India [Kumar, 1933]. According to this zone map (Figure 1), the region was divided into violent,
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176 strong, and weak earthquake regions. The early Earthquake Zone Map of India by a government
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57 177 agency was developed in 1935 through the Geological Survey of India (GSI) after the event of the
58 178 great Bihar-Nepal (M8.3) Earthquake of 15 January 1934. It reflected the damages incurred during
59 179 the 1897 Assam and the 1931 Quetta Earthquakes. It placed India in three zones, which demarcate
60 180 land areas where slight, moderate, and severe damages are expected. The area demarcated
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62 181 as severe experienced earthquake shaking corresponding to intensity VIII or more on the Modified
63 182 Mercalli Intensity (MMI) scale, where significant damages are expected.
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 183 The early zone maps of India proposed by several different investigators [e.g., West, 1937; Tandon,
184 1956; Krishna, 1959; Guha, 1962; Mithal and Srivastava, 1959; Srivastava, 1969 and Gubin 1971]
185 were all concerned with delineating the regions prone to different levels of damage on a qualitative
186 basis or the expected levels of a selected non-instrumental macro-seismic intensity scale [Gupta and
1
2 187 Todorovska, 1995; Mohapatra and Mohanty, 2010]. Later between 1977 and 1999, three important
3 188 studies [Basu and Nigam, 1977; Khattri et al., 1984; Bhatia et al., 1999] attempted to prepare PGA
4 189 maps using a probabilistic earthquake hazard approach. The first probabilistic zone map of India
5 190 [Basu and Nigam, 1977] presented PGA contours for a 100-year return period. This work was
6
7 191 improved by considering India’s landmass in 24 tectonic source zones and a zone PGA contour map
8 192 was proposed corresponding to a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years [Khatri et al., 1984]. In
9 193 another effort, 86 tectonic source zones were considered and a different map was proposed, which
10 194 was based on probabilistic considerations of major tectonic features and seismic trends [Bhatia et al.,
11 195 1999]. However, both of these studies were based on meager data on past seismicity, and the
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13 196 attenuation relations used were not calibrated for the Indian condition. Another important study on
14 197 the seismic zoning of India [Parvez et al., 2003] was based on the deterministic computation of the
15 198 synthetic seismograms by dividing the country into 15 regional polygons based on structural models,
16 199 seismogenic zones, Q structure, focal mechanism, and earthquake catalog, which had not been
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200 adequately validated with the recorded strong motion data.
19 201 In 2007, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) of India commissioned a study to
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202 examine all the past studies and update the earthquake hazard of the country. That study proposed
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22 203 the probabilistic design of PGA values for the nation by dividing the country into 32 seismogenic
23 204 source zones [NDMA, 2010]. In 2019, NDMA commissioned another study under the umbrella of
24 205 the BIS to improve and finalise the earthquake hazard in India based on consultations with the
25 206 organizations estimating earthquake hazard in India. Two important studies carried out in the
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27 207 meantime [Nath and Thingbaijam, 2012; Sitharam and Sreevalsa, 2013] were considered and the
28 208 most updated probabilistic zone maps of India were evolved [Sreejaya et al., 2022]. The outcome of
29 209 that study has been used in this paper to arrive at the latest version of the zone map of India included
30 210 in the Indian Earthquake code – IS 1893.
31
32 211 The first formal Earthquake Zone Map of India was published by the BIS in 1962 as part of
33 212 its standard IS 1893, titled Recommendations for Earthquake Resistant Design of
34 213 Structures [IS:1893, 1962]. This map was produced through a committee of experts from various
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36 214 organizations based mainly on the observed intensity values during the major past earthquakes. It
37 215 placed India in seven zones, namely Zones 0, I, II, III, IV, V, and VI corresponding to expected MMI
38 216 levels of V (or less), V, VI, VII, VIII, IX, and X (and above), respectively. Zone 0 was considered to
39 217 be a non-seismic zone (where no damage is expected) and Zone VI (where extensive damages are
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218 expected) (Figure 2a). Most of the North-East India and the Kutch region of Gujarat were sorted
42 219 under Zone VI and most of the peninsular shield was classified as Zone 0.
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220 The second Earthquake Zone Map was published in 1966 [IS:1893, 1966] with some modifications
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45 221 in the peninsular region, but did not digress significantly from the 1962 version. The revision of 1966
46 222 followed the same general approach as that in the 1962 map, except that some weight was given to
47 223 the tectonic features. It moved only the margins between these zones; the broad features of the 1962
48 224 version were retained (Figure 2b). It attempted to address the gap of the previous map, namely the
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50 225 presence of zones around the Gujarat region with narrow land masses having MMI of V, VI, and VII;
51 226 the modification was made without changing the zones and method.
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227 The third Earthquake Zone Map was released in 1970 [IS:1893, 1970], based on the levels of
54 228 intensities sustained during damaging earthquakes in the interim period in regions considered to be
55 229 low seismic areas (e.g., 1967 M6.5 Koyna and 1969 M5.7 Bhadrachalam Earthquakes). It reduced
56 230 the number of zones from seven to five (namely I, II, III, IV to V) (Figure 2c). Significant changes
57 231 were made in the peninsular region along the western and eastern coastal margins, where these 1967
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59 232 and 1969 earthquakes occurred. Zone 0 abolished the concept of a zone with no likelihood of
60 233 occurrence of earthquakes. Moreover, due to the devastating 1967 earthquake, the Koyna region was
61 234 upgraded to Zone III. Parts of the Himalayan boundary in the north and northeast and the Kachchh
62 235 area in the west were classified as zone V. The maximum Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) of
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 236 earthquake shaking expected in the five zones I, II, III, IV, and V were stated to be V (or
237 less), VI, VII, VIII, and IX (and above), respectively. The 1975 revision of the standard did not
238 change the zone map, but introduced the concepts of seismic zone factor and importance factor. No
239 change in the zone map was made in the 1984 revision also.
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2 240 The fourth Earthquake Zone Map was released in 2002 immediately after the devastating 2001 Bhuj
3 241 (M7.7) Earthquake (Figure 2d). Also, public uproar following the 1993 Killari (Maharashtra,
4
5 242 Central India) earthquake that occurred in the erstwhile earthquake zone I, with about 8,000
6 243 fatalities, again raised questions on the validity of the earthquake zone map in peninsular India. The
7 244 2001 Bhuj earthquake in the most severe earthquake zone V of the country caused about 13,805
8 245 fatalities. These two events in particular pressured the Bureau of Indian Standards to revise the
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246 earthquake zone map again in 2002. It involved three major modifications. Firstly, it reduced the
11 247 total number of seismic zones from five to four, by merging areas under Zone I in the 1970 map with
12 248 those in Zone II. Secondly, the region of Zone III in Maharashtra was extended to reflect the
13 249 devastating damage caused by the 1993 M6.3 Killari earthquake; this was the major reason for the
14 250 revision of the zone map. Earlier, Killari village was in Zone I, where the likelihood of earthquake
15
16 251 shaking was the least; but, ~8,000 lives were lost owing to the collapse of houses. Thirdly, Chennai
17 252 city was placed in seismic zone III as against zone II in the 1970 version of the map. The four zones
18 253 II, III, IV, and V were stated to expect Medvedev-Sponheuer-Karnik (MSK) Intensity levels of VI (or
19 254 lower), VII, VIII, and IX (and above), respectively. For design, the peak ground accelerations
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255 considered in Earthquake Zones II, III, IV, and V are 0.10g, 0.16g, 0.24g, and 0.36g, respectively.
21
22 256 This map is based on deterministic considerations (with no probabilities assigned to the exceedance
23 257 of shaking levels during earthquakes expected in the zones). This current Earthquake Zone
24 258 Map places ~59% of India’s land area to be susceptible to MSK Intensity VII and above
25 259 representing moderate to severe earthquake ground shaking [Mohapatra and Mohanty, 2010].
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27 260 The revision of IS 1893 in 2016 did not make any change in the zone map from its 2002 version. Six
28 261 decades from 1962 saw the development of the Indian Earthquake Codes, and along with it changed
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262 the Earthquake Zones and Earthquake Zone Maps (Table 1). The first four earthquake zone maps
31 263 were based on maximum earthquake intensities likely to be experienced at different locations. These
32 264 maps attempted in a qualitative sense to reflect the regions of varying damages, which is governed
33 265 significantly by the geology in addition to the earthquake magnitude. Recently, the BIS has approved
34 266 a new Fifth Earthquake Zone Map of India as part of the seventh revision of IS 1893, developed
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36 267 using the probabilistic hazard analysis method, which accounts for the effects of the expected
37 268 seismicity and the local site condition quantitatively to obtain the PGA estimates throughout the
38 269 country for a return period of 2,475 years. This paper presents the procedure adopted to arrive at the
39 270 said map using the results of a study carried out for the purpose described elsewhere [Sreejaya et al.,
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271 2022].
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43 273
44 274 3. PROBABILISTIC EARTHQUAKE HAZARD ANALYSIS
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275 The detailed Probabilistic Earthquake Hazard Analysis (PEHA) carried out for generating the new
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48 276 zone map of India comprises four basic elements, namely: (i) Identifying and defining seismic
49 277 sources; (ii) Characterising source probability; (iii) Characterising ground motion probability; and
50 278 (iv) Deriving hazard in terms of exceedance probabilities [Yu et al., 2011].
51 279
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53 280 3.1 Identifying and Defining Seismic Sources
54 281 Seismic sources are defined generally from an analysis of the seismotectonic features and the
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282 association of past seismicity with them. India has diverse seismotectonic features across its large
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57 283 landmass, and complex interaction at the junction of Indian and neighboring tectonic plates. The
58 284 Indian plate (on which the Indian subcontinent lies) is moving in a northeast direction concerning the
59 285 Eurasian plate at the rate of 3-28 mm/year [Jade et al., 2017]. This junction between the two plates
60 286 (called the Himalayas) is an active tectonic region of the world. The major faults identified in this
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62 287 region include the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT), the Main Central Thrust (MCT), and the Main
63 288 Boundary Thrust (MBT). Most earthquakes in this region occurred in the active shallow crust; these
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 289 include the 1897 M8.1 Shillong Plateau, the 1905 M7.9 Kangra, the 1934 M8.3 Bihar-Nepal,
290 the 1950 M8.6 Assam, the 1991 M6.8 Uttarkashi, the 1999 M6.5 Chamoli, the 2011 M6.9 Sikkim and
291 the 2015 M7.9 Nepal earthquakes. The Peninsular India (called the Indian Shield) is separated from
292 the Himalaya by the deep alluvial basin of Gangetic Plains. Most of Peninsular India is considered to
1
2 293 be a stable continental region owing to its relatively limited earthquake activity. Major faults in this
3 294 region include a system of almost E-W trending faults of regional extent in the Kutch and the Son-
4 295 Narmada-Tapti rift basins with several isolated faults of local nature in the rest of the area. The most
5 296 devastating (intraplate) earthquakes, that occurred in this region, include the 1967 M6.5 Koyna,
6
7 297 the 1993 M6.3 Killari, the 1997 M6.1 Jabalpur, and the 2001 M7.7 Bhuj earthquakes.
8 298 The eastern boundary of the Indian mainland is characterized by an active inland subduction zone
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299 termed the Indo-Burmese Subduction zone, which forms part of the great Burma-Andaman-Nicobar-
11 300 Sunda arc [Gupta, 2006] that resulted in the 2004 M9.3 Sumatra earthquake and is the source of the
12 301 high level of seismicity in Andaman Nicobar area. The Indo-Burmese subduction plate boundary has
13 302 resulted in many deep subduction earthquakes in northeast India. All the major faults in the
14 303 foregoing tectonic domains of India are mapped in the Seismo-tectonic Atlas of India [GSI, 2000]. In
15
16 304 addition, the faults in Sri Lanka and the Himalaya-Tibet region [Styron et al., 2010] are included in
17 305 the database for better analysis in Southern India and trans-Himalaya, respectively [Sreejaya et al.,
18 306 2022]. The fault map of India thus obtained constitutes 1,838 faults in total (Figure 3). But, the
19 307 information on the maximum earthquake potential and the average recurrence times of the largest
20
308 earthquakes possible on these faults is lacking, to model properly those as individual seismic sources.
21
22 309 Therefore, hazard analysis was based on using area types of seismic sources only.
23
310 Based on a study of the historic seismic activity, and of the tectonic and geological settings, India is
24
25 311 identified to have 33 area types of seismic source regions: the active regions of the Himalayas into
26 312 Source Zones (SZ) 1-4; the Andaman & Nicobar Island regions into SZs 10-15 and 32; the North-
27 313 East India region into SZs 5-8; the Chaman Fault region into SZs 21-26; the Hindukush-Pamir
28 314 region into SZ 30; the peninsular regions in South India into SZs 17, 20 and 29; the peninsular region
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30
315 in Central India into SZs 16, 18 and 19; the Kutch region into SZ 27; and the Tibet region (to provide
31 316 a well-rounded analysis of the Himalayan zones) into SZ 33. All these 33 seismic source zones are
32 317 shown in Figure 3.
33
34 318 The past seismicity of the region was compiled in the form of an updated earthquake catalogue based
35 319 on the earthquake register [NDMA, 2010], and consisted of 69,519 earthquakes for the period from
36 320 2600 BC to December 2019. The compiled catalogue was homogenized to moment magnitude (Mw)
37 321 [Scordilis, 2006; Yenier et al., 2008; and Baruah et al., 2012] and de-clustered to make sure that the
38
39 322 considered catalogue follows Poisson distribution. The Gardner-Knopoff algorithm [Gardner and
40 323 Knopoff, 1974] with Urhammer space-time window was adopted for declustering the catalogue. This
41 324 identified a large number of events (40,749) as the dependent events, leaving behind only 28,770 as
42 325 the main shocks and background events used in the present hazard analysis. The epicenters of the
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326 main shocks in the resulting declustered catalogue are superimposed over the major tectonic features
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45 327 in Figure 4, which indicates that the identified area sources conform well to the tectonic features as
46 328 well as the observed past seismicity.
47 329
48 330 3.2. Characterizing Source Probability
49
50 331 Since fault recurrence characteristics of all the mapped faults are not available readily, seismic
51 332 recurrence characteristics are quantified source zone-wise (33 seismogenic source zones) using the
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53
333 truncated Gutenberg Richter's (G-R) relation:
54 log10 Nm  a  bm (1)
55
56 334 Where
57
 e  m  e M max 
N m   N m0   m 
58
e (2)
59 0  e  M max 
60  
61
62
335
63
64 7
65
 336 wherein the controlling seismicity parameters include the upper bound of source magnitude Mmax and
337 the recurrence parameter   b ln10 , and N (m0 ) represents the cumulative occurrence rate of
338 earthquakes with magnitude greater than or equal to m0 .The quantity within the parenthesis in Eq.(2)
1 339 represents the probability distribution FM (m) , of magnitude having values greater than or equal to a
2
3 340 specified value m . The associated probability density f M (m) is given by dFM (m) / dm .
4
5 341 To characterize the source probability for all 33 source zones, the available data on the main shocks
6 342 within each seismic source were analysed for periods of completeness over different magnitude
7 343 intervals using approaches proposed in the literature [Stepp, 1972; Tinti and Mulargia, 1985]. A
8
9 344 detailed description of this analysis is available elsewhere [NDMA, 2020; Dhanya et al., 2021]. The
10 345 data reported as 'complete' in different magnitude intervals were used to estimate the parameter b of
11 346 the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) recurrence relation Eq.(1) for each source zone using two popular
12 347 maximum likelihood methods proposed in the literature [Kijko and Graham, 1998; Weichert, 1980].
13
14 348 For use in Eq.(2), the Mmax estimates for most of the seismogenic source zone have been obtained by
15 349 suitable increments in the observed maximum magnitude values from the earthquake catalogue. But,
16
350 as the magnitudes of many past earthquakes have been fixed based on historical transcripts and other
17
18 351 geological evidence, there is a large variation in them. Therefore, in addition to assigning
19 352 the Mmax values using the above principle, some of the source zones with very large observed
20 353 earthquake magnitudes have been subdivided further to provide reasonable Mmax values that can be
21 354 concurrent with the recently recorded data. Accordingly, the Source Zones 27, 28, and 8 are
22
23 355 subdivided further with a higher Mmax for the Kutch, Aravalli ranges, and Shillong Plateau subzones
24 356 respectively. Further, the Mmax value obtained for the Himalayan region was Mw8.8. But, in the past
25 357 ~700 years, the highest magnitude event that the Himalayas experienced is Mw8.2 in Nepal. In
26 358 general, the great magnitude Himalayan earthquakes are not expected to have a recurrence period
27 359 larger than about 250–500 years. Therefore, based on expert elicitation, the Mmax value for
28
29 360 Himalayan source zones is fixed at 8.3. Based on these parameters, the probability density function
30 361 for Mw is obtained. The estimates of the b-value and the maximum magnitude Mmax obtained for all
31 362 33 source zones are given in Table 2.
32
33 363 For the present hazard analysis, the activity rate N (m0 ) in Eq.(2) has been defined for a grid of size
34 364 0.1°×0.1° covering the entire study region. The observed number of earthquakes greater than or
35
36 365 equal to a threshold magnitude (m0) of 4.0 is counted in each grid cell from the homogenized and
37 366 declustered catalogue. These are used along with the respective effective periods of completeness to
38 367 obtain the cumulative occurrence rate per cell; with the rate for the ith cell denoted by ni (m0 ) . The
39
40 368 activity rates ni (m0 ) for the entire grid cells in each of the 33 area sources are smoothed spatially
41 369 using fault-oriented elliptical Gaussian distribution [Lapajne et al., 2003] to get the smoothed
42
43 370 activity rate ni (m0 ) for the ith grid cell, which is taken to represent the activity rate N (m0 ) for this
44 371 grid cell. Thus, the activity rates of earthquakes in the present study are distributed non-uniformly
45 372 over the area of each source zone in a physically realistic manner.
46
373
47
48 374 3.3. Characterizing Ground Motion Probability
49
375 The probability density function for the ground motion intensity parameter is derived using several
50
51 376 local and global ground motion models (GMMs) applicable for the region, using a logic tree
52 377 approach, to account for epistemic uncertainties. Since the Indian subcontinent constitutes different
53 378 tectonics, such as the active and subduction regions in the north, and north-east, and stable
54 379 continental regions in the south, appropriate GMMs are selected and the analysis is carried out for B-
55
56
380 C type Site Classes (as per National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program Vs30 = 760 m/s). Local
57 381 GMMs include SSSA17 [Singh et al., 2017] for the Indo-Gangetic Plains, GT18 [Gupta and
58 382 Trifunac, 2018], and DR20 [Dhanya and Raghukanth, 2020] for the Himalayan regions. However,
59 383 due to the unavailability of local GMMs for other tectonic regions, global GMMs are considered for
60 384 Peninsular India. Since the Himalayan and Indo-Gangetic Plains are considered active tectonic
61
62 385 regions, NGA West 2 models are considered, namely: ASK14 [Abrahamson et al., 2014], BSSA14
63 386 [Booreet al., 2014], CB14 [Campbell and Bozorgnia, 2014], and CY14 [Chiou and Youngs, 2014].
64 8
65
 387 In addition, subduction GMMs are used for North-East India, namely KNMF06 [Kanno et al., 2006],
388 ZJSX06 [Zhao et al., 2006], Y97 [Youngs et al., 1997], AB03 [Atkinson and Boore, 2003], and
389 Bchydro16 [Abrahamson et al., 2016]. Further, GMMs that are applicable to the stable continental
390 regions are used for Peninsular India, namely AB06 [Atkinson and Boore, 2006], and NGA East
1
2 391 model [Goulet et al., 2021]. Further, the weights of this logic tree were obtained using the
3 392 normalized ranking method proposed in literature [Kale et al., 2019]. A detailed explanation
4 393 regarding the logic trees considered for the analysis is available elsewhere [Sreejaya et al., 2022].
5 394 After obtaining all the necessary probability density functions, the exceedance probability is
6
7 395 calculated of Sa for a particular return period. The probability of a ground motion intensity exceeding
8 396 a particular level was calculated based on the probability of that intensity level occurring at a site, for
9 397 a magnitude distance combination PPGA y *|Ri , Mw  and the probability of occurrence of the same
10 398 magnitude event within the vicinity of the site.
11
12 399
13 400 3.4. Hazard Estimation
14
15 401 After obtaining the probability density functions for magnitude as well as PGA, integration is
16 402 performed to obtain the final probability of exceedances concerning the required return periods.
17
18 403 Here, the Cornell-McGuire procedure [Cornell, 1968; McGuire, 1974] assumes the earthquake
19 404 occurrences as independent Poisson processes. According to this approach, the probability that the
20 405 PGA exceeds a particular level ‘y*’ in a return period of ‘T’ years is given by:
21 406
22  y *T
23 407 PPGA  y * in T years  1  e , and (3)
24
25
26
27 408 (4)
28
29 409 Here  y * is the mean annual rate of exceedance of ground motion parameter y * ,   the
ni m0
30
31 410 elliptically smoothed seismic activity rate for the ith grid cell, PPGA y *|Ri , Mw  the conditional
32
33
411 probability that the parameter y * would be exceeded for distance Ri and magnitude Mw , and
34 412 f M i M w  the probability density function for source magnitude. Thus, mean annual rate of
35
36 413 exceedances and the resulting uniform hazard response spectrum (UHRS) curves are obtained for the
37 414 entire country on a 0.1°×0.1° grid. A detailed description of this method is given in literature
38 415 [NDMA, 2020; Sreejaya et al., 2022]. The resulting hazard map, derived for PGA for a return period
39 416 of 2,475 years, is reported in Figure 5. The site-specific PGA values thus obtained from the above
40
41 417 analysis are almost twice to that of the zone factors specified by the current earthquake code
42 418 [IS1893; 2016], for some of the cities in Himalaya and North-East India.
43 419
44 420
45
421 4. LOWER-BOUND DETERMINISTIC HAZARD ESTIMATES
46
47
48 422 The PEHA performed to prepare the PGA contour map of Figure 5 is based on the spatially
49 423 smoothed distribution of the past seismicity only, because the information required to use individual
50 424 faults as seismic sources is lacking. Therefore, the probabilistic PGA estimates given in Figure 5 are
51 425 seen to be unrealistically small at many of the locations with little or no past seismicity, despite the
52
53 426 existence of mapped faults in the vicinity. To improve upon the situation, the Deterministic
54 427 Earthquake Hazard Assessment (DEHA) method was applied to provide due weightage to the
55 428 mapped faults.
56
57 429 The DEHA method is intended traditionally to arrive at the upper bound of the earthquake hazard at
58 430 a site by identifying a controlling maximum credible earthquake (MCE) magnitude and assuming it
59 431 to occur at the shortest possible distance on the associated fault. The likelihood of realizing the MCE
60
432 magnitude during life periods of engineering interest is expected to be extremely small. However, it
61
62 433 is not possible to define MCE magnitudes for most of the faults in the region in a widely accepted
63 434 way without strong personal judgment. Therefore, it is proposed to use the DEHA method using
64 9
65
 435 maximum frequent earthquake (MFE) magnitude for each area source, which can unquestionably be
436 assumed to occur at any time in the future on any of the mapped faults in the source zone. In general,
437 the MFE magnitude in a source zone may be lower than even the observed maximum magnitude in
438 the source zone. The estimates of MFE magnitudes for all the area sources considered in this study
1
2 439 are arrived at from elicitation as listed in Table 3 along with their focal depths.
3 440 To estimate the lower-bound deterministic estimate of PGA at each grid point, the MFE magnitudes
4
5 441 listed in Table 3 are assumed to occur on the nearest fault to the grid point in the respective source.
6 442 If no fault exists within 25 km of the grid point, the MFE is assumed to occur at a minimum distance
7 443 of 25 km following the concept of a floating earthquake. The MFE magnitude and distance
8 444 combinations for all the source zones are used to identify the controlling M and R combination. The
9
10
445 controlling M and R pairs for all the grid points are used to compute the hazard using all the GMPEs
11 446 that were used in PEHA. Finally, the weighted average hazard values are computed using the logic
12 447 tree discussed in the literature [Sreejaya et al., 2022]. The hazard map thus obtained for median
13 448 estimates (50% confidence levels) is shown in Figure 6. This DEHA map is governed mainly by the
14 449 contributions of the specific faults, which have not been included in the PEHA map of Figure 5 due
15
16 450 to the reasons mentioned before.
17 451
18
19 452
20 453 5. FINALISING THE EARTHQUAKE HAZARD MAP
21
22 454 The final hazard map is obtained by using the larger of the deterministic and the probabilistic hazard
23 455 analyses estimates at each of the grid sites; the resulting hazard contour map is shown in Figure 7.
24
25
456 As the deterministic estimates are made only at the 50th percentile level and are based on the MFE
26 457 magnitude in each area type of source zone, the deterministic estimates control the hazard over
27 458 limited areas where a fault exists with no past seismicity associated with it. Thus, the map in Figure
28 459 7 is dominated by the probabilistic hazard only, except for at some isolated locations. This map
29 460 provides the PGA values estimated corresponding to the assumed engineering bedrock type (B-C
30
31 461 type) of surface site condition. Therefore, the amplifications at sites with other soil categories as well
32 462 as basin characteristics need to be evaluated.
33
34 463
35 464 5.1. Hazard Map with Site Amplification Accounted
36
37
465 The PGA values given in the map of Figure 7 correspond to the engineering bedrock type of surface
38 466 site condition characterized by Shear Wave Velocity VS more than 760 m/s, hereinafter called Site
39 467 Class B. But, many of the grid sites would in reality be characterized by lower VS values towards the
40 468 surface, which would amplify the PGA estimates. The effects of site amplification are expected to be
41 469 prominent in all basins (including those along the Himalayas), the Indo-Gangetic Plains, and the
42
43 470 river estuaries in Peninsular India. However, the depths are unavailable for the quaternary deposits
44 471 on the Indian landmass; even the digitized map showing the contour plan of the land area with the
45 472 lateral extent and depth of quaternary deposits is not available yet. Because of this, though
46 473 theoretically viable, the site amplification could not be incorporated straight away into the hazard
47
474 estimate. Hence, as a first approximation, the Lithological Map of India given in Figure 8 is used to
48
49 475 assign site amplification factors to the PGA estimates at four major lithological units, namely
50 476 metamorphic and volcanic rocks, sedimentary rocks, laterite, and alluvium. It is well recognized that
51 477 the various lithological units do not necessarily reflect the thickness of soils at those locations, but
52 478 those are used as proxies to various site classes for use in this version of the PEHA of India for want
53
54 479 of any better information.
55 480 Towards estimating the expected amplification in earthquake waves, two more site classes were
56
57 481 considered with average Shear Wave Velocities VS of 360–760 m/s and 180–360 m/s; these are
58 482 called Site Classes C & D, respectively. A preliminary study was conducted to estimate the
59 483 amplification factors for these two site classes concerning site classes A & B. In this study, one-
60 484 dimensional site response analysis was carried out using DEEPSOIL software [Hashash et al., 2017]
61
485 for several soil columns representing site classes C and D with depths varying from 5 to 150
62
63 486 m. Figure 9 shows the histogram of the average shear wave velocity and depth of column for the 250
64 10
65
 487 profiles generated by randomization of the limited number of actual profiles. The shear wave
488 velocities and soil properties, such as G/Gmax [Seed and Idriss, 1970] and dynamic density, are
489 randomized throughout the depth of the soil column. To perform the analysis, three standard bedrock
490 time histories are considered from the PEER NGA database. The original time histories are scaled to
1
2 491 generate 30-time histories, such that the considered scenarios cover the range of input PGAs (say
3 492 0.1g to 1g). Further, the analysis is performed and the surface-level time histories are obtained for
4 493 each of the 30 time histories and 250 soil profiles. These have been used to obtain the amplification
5 494 factors for site classes C and D for different levels of PGA at the bedrock as given in Table 4. In
6
7 495 keeping with values given in Table 4, and based on engineering judgment, the values as reported
8 496 in Table 5 are considered to amplify PGA estimates obtained at grid locations in different
9 497 lithological groups. For alluvium/soil sites, similar values are reported in the literature [e.g., Idriss,
10 498 1991]. This approximation is considered to absorb the effects of thick deposits overlying the
11 499 bedrock, i.e., the effects of site period on the PGA values. Understandably, this will lead to higher
12
13 500 PGA even in those areas where there are no quaternary deposits as well as for those structures which
14 501 are founded on engineering rock.
15
16 502 The PGA estimates at the grid sites with different lithological units in the map of Figure 7 are scaled
17 503 by the corresponding amplification factors as given in Table 5 to obtain the final hazard map
18 504 reported in Figure 10. This contour map with site amplification effects accounted is used as the basis
19 505 for developing the new zone map of India.
20
506
21
22 507 5.2. Smoothening and Removal of Islands
23
508 The finalized contour map of Figure 10 after accounting for soil amplification is used to prepare a
24
25 509 raw zone map by enclosing areas with PGA values in five ranges of 0.0 – 0.15g (Zone II), 0.15g –
26 510 0.30g (Zone III), 0.30g – 0.45g (Zone IV), 0.45g – 0.60g (Zone V) and 0.60g and higher (Zone VI).
27 511 This zone map is given in (Figure 11), which is seen to be characterized by several inliers of
28 512 adjacent higher or lower zones. Therefore, the zone map obtained is smoothed out as per the
29
30
513 following considerations:
31 514 (1) Zone boundaries are rounded to have smooth transitions between the five zones. Also, the
32
33
515 boundaries of the higher zones are enlarged to include the major cities in the adjacent lower zone
34 516 within 50 km of the boundaries of the higher zone.
35 517 (2) A land strip of ~50 km width along the southwest coast of India is upgraded to earthquake zone
36 518 III, though the PEHA work indicated this area to be ideally in earthquake zone II. This is adopted to
37 519 account for possible hazards due to offshore faults;
38
39 520 (3) At zone boundaries, inliers of smaller zones are in general merged into the higher zone, but very
40 521 small size of inliers of the higher zone are merged into the lower zone only if no past seismicity is
41 522 noted at those locations.
42
43 523 The smoothed zone boundaries thus arrived at are shown in Figure 12, which results in the new zone
44 524 map of India with five seismic zones as given in Figure 13. In addition, the new zone map is plotted
45 525 against the seismicity and fault maps of India in Figures A1 and A2 of the Appendix, respectively.
46
526 This map is found to be adequately consistent with the past seismicity as well as the mapped faults in
47
48 527 the region of study.
49 528
50 529
51 530 6. ZONE FACTORS
52
53
54 531 The new zone map of India in Figure 13 is based on the five intervals of the PGA hazard for the
55 532 return period of 2,475 years. Though the earthquake zone VI with the highest seismic hazard in the
56 533 country is defined for PGA estimates greater than 0.6g and encompasses areas with PGA values up
57 534 to about 1.0 g, it is proposed to consider an optimum value of 0.75g as the design PGA for this zone.
58
535 Further, to overcome the peculiarities due to uncertainties in the various input parameters to the
59
60 536 hazard analysis, the range of PGAs in the other four zones is replaced with the upper bound values to
61 537 represent the PGA value at all the locations in that zone. The PGA values for earthquake zones II,
62
63
64 11
65
 538 III, IV, V, and VI thus become 0.15g, 0.30g, 0.45g, 0.60g, and 0.75g, respectively. These values
539 represent the reference zone factors for a return period TRP of 2,475 years as listed in Table 6.
540
1 541 The Earthquake Design Philosophy adopted in the 2023 revision of the Indian Standards related to
2 542 earthquake safety, namely IS1893 on Design Earthquake Hazard and Criteria for Earthquake
3 543 Resistant Design of Structures, IS13920 on Specifications for Earthquake Resistant Design and
4
5 544 Detailing of Structures, and IS13935 Principles for Earthquake Safety Assessment and Retrofit of
6 545 Structures, required structures to be placed under five categories, namely: (a) Normal Structures, (b)
7 546 Important Structures, (c) Critical and Lifeline Structures, (d) Special Structures, and (e) Nuclear
8 547 Power Plant Structures. The relative hazard levels for the design of these different categories of
9
10
548 structures are proposed to be differentiated as per the return periods listed in Table 7. Thus, it is
11 549 necessary to know the values of the zone factors for seven different TRP of 73, 225, 475, 975, 2,475,
12 550 4,995, and 9,975 (say) years in all. Under the assumption of Poisson distribution, these return periods
13 551 correspond to different probabilities of exceedance during a design life of 50 years as given in Table
14 552 8. In principle, it could have been possible to obtain the zone factors for all the return periods by
15
16 553 computing the hazard directly for those return periods like that for 2,475 years. However, a more
17 554 convenient/practical approach is recommended for use in IS 1893 (Part 1) in which the zone factors
18 555 for other return periods are obtained from that for 2,475 years by developing an empirical
19 556 relationship as described in the further text.
20
21 557 Following the approach adopted by the EURO Code, the scaling factor s to get the zone factor
22 558 ZTRP for a desired return period of TRP from the zone factor Z 2,475 for reference return period of 2475
23
24 559 years is defined as:
25 k
26 ZTRP  T 
27 560 s   RP  , (5)
28 Z 2,475  2, 475 
29
30 561 where factor k is estimated empirically by carrying out the PEHA for several different TRP values.
31 562 The parameter k is found to vary over a wide range of 0.28–0.60, with higher value in areas of low
32
33 563 seismicity and vice-versa. When k is high, s is less than 1.0 for TRP lower than 2,475 years and more
34 564 than 1.0 for TRP higher than 2,475 years. On the other hand, when k is small, s is comparatively
35
36 565 higher for lower TRP and lower for higher TRP . Thus, the use of too high a k-value for low seismicity
37 566 areas may unduly underestimate and overestimate the PGA values for lower and higher return
38
567 periods, respectively. Similarly, the effect of using too low a k-value will unduly overestimate and
39
40 568 underestimate the PGA values for lower and higher return periods than 2,475 years, respectively.
41 569 The thin curves in Figure 14 for k values of 0.26 and 0.42 can be considered to approximate well the
42 570 scale factors for the higher three zones (IV, V, and VI) and the lower two zones (II and III),
43 571 respectively. These k values provide balanced estimates of the scaling factors for different return
44
45 572 periods and are in line with values cited in classical literature [Lubkowski, 2010]. The scale factors
46 573 based on these k values for seven different return periods rounded off to the nearest fractions are
47 574 given in Table 9. The values of the zone factors for the same return periods for all five seismic zones
48 575 are given in Table 10.
49
50 576 The zone factors with different return periods for the five earthquake zones in the new zone map of
51 577 India provide the basic horizontal PGA estimates for use in earthquake-resistant design or safety
52 578 evaluation of different categories of structures in each of these zones. The code has also proposed the
53
54 579 normalized design response spectral shapes for three different site classes, which are used along with
55 580 the zone factor to get the design earthquake coefficient required for earthquake-resistant design.
56 581
57
58 582
59
60 583 8. THE TASKS AHEAD
61
62 584 Despite the very good general understanding of the spatial locations of occurrence of earthquakes
63 585 and the possible upper limit of their magnitude at the inter-plate boundaries, specific prediction in
64 12
65
 586 terms of the exact time, location, and magnitude by earth scientists is still elusive. On the other hand,
587 a similar broad understanding of the earthquake-prone locations and possible maximum magnitudes
588 is in general lacking for the intra-plate environment. Hence, over the last three decades, the emphasis
589 worldwide has been on earthquake hazard assessment, which provides an effective basis for risk
1
2 590 mitigation by way of earthquake-resistant design of buildings and infrastructure facilities. Due to the
3 591 random and stochastic nature of the processes involved in the generation of earthquakes in a seismic
4 592 source and the resulting ground motion intensities at a site, the earthquake hazard is commonly
5 593 estimated currently using the PEHA method; it has been used for the first time to prepare a zone map
6
7 594 for India in this study. In this method, the seismicity at the earthquake sources and the expected
8 595 ground motion at a site are both defined using suitable probabilistic models developed using the data
9 596 and information available at any given point in time. Due to limited data and information available
10 597 compared to the ideal requirement, any hazard analysis is considered to have only short-term validity
11 598 and is required to be updated periodically (say, every 5–10 years) by collecting additional data and
12
13 599 developing improved models for the input to the hazard analysis.
14 600 In reality, surprise earthquakes will continue to be witnessed in areas with no past seismicity and
15
16 601 active fault known to exist, and the damaging earthquake may not happen where expected (e.g.,
17 602 postulated seismic gap areas along plate boundaries) even much after the contemplated natural
18 603 period [Geller, 2011]. Nevertheless, the PEHA also provides a method to account for the effects of
19 604 such eventualities in a balanced way by taking the uncertainties into account. To improve upon the
20
605 situation further, even after having sufficiently large databases available, more intensified data
21
22 606 collection is being continued in many parts of the world and the hazard maps are being updated
23 607 frequently using new data. For example, the first version of the United States National Seismic
24 608 Hazard Map in 1996 has been revised four times over a short period of 22 years (Petersen et al.,
25 609 2020). Though, the proposed quantitative zone map of India developed using the PEHA method can
26
27 610 be considered a significant update over the existing qualitative map, further updating is essential by
28 611 identifying the specific faults as the seismic sources for the occurrence of the largest possible
29 612 magnitudes in different tectonic domains and by selecting the GMPEs representative of different
30 613 regions of the country and updating those further using the available recorded strong motion
31
614 acceleration data.
32
33 615 The PEHA performed to prepare the proposed zone map of India is based solely on the area type of
34 616 seismic sources, the results of which are dominated by the available data on past earthquakes. Also,
35
36 617 the GMPEs used are based on only limited validation using the recorded strong-motion data. To
37 618 enhance the reliability of this zone map, it is necessary to supplement the area sources of background
38 619 seismicity with the fault sources of the largest possible earthquakes collate all the strong-motion data
39 620 available in the country, and initiate a comprehensive program for strong-motion data recording at
40
41
621 the national level and to develop region-specific GMPEs.
42 622
43
44 623 The tasks ahead to have the next updating of the hazard zoning of India in the future and the
45 624 subsequent regular revisions in a consistent manner are:
46
625 (i) The earthquake catalogue to be used in PEHA has to meet the requirements of
47
48 626 comprehensiveness, quality, and uniformity. To meet these requirements, it is necessary to compile a
49 627 critically scrutinized earthquake catalogue for India and neighbouring regions from all available
50 628 indigenous and international sources of instrumental as well as historical earthquakes. Also, the
51 629 catalogue should be extended as much as possible in the past to the pre-historical earthquakes using
52
53
630 available publications on paleoseismic studies and the nontechnical ancient literature.
54 631 (ii) The catalogue compiled under (i) above should homogenize to moment magnitude using
55 632 region-specific conversion relations with standard deviations taken into account and then declustered
56 633 judiciously to avoid excessive removal of the dependent events. This homogenized and declusterd
57 634 catalogue should be used in the earthquake hazard analysis.
58
59 635 (iii) The PEHA requires accurate information on all the tectonic and geological features that may
60 636 be the sources of the earthquakes. A comprehensive geotectonic map of India and neighbouring areas
61 637 should thus be prepared by starting with the tectonic map of India by the Geological Survey of India
62 638 [GSI, 2000] and incorporating additional tectonic features from the published literature. Available
63
64 13
65
 639 focal mechanism solutions from the GCMT catalogue [Ekström et al., 2012] and various published
640 papers should be superimposed over the tectonic map to infer the dominant focal mechanisms of the
641 earthquakes associated with the potentially active known faults.
642 (iv) As it will not be possible generally to identify all the active faults and their maximum
1
2 643 seismic potential in all parts of the country and as all the past earthquakes are not seen to be
3 644 associated with the known faults only, the use of area type of seismic sources of diffused seismicity
4 645 will continue to play important role in PEHA for all times to come. Thus, a physically plausible set
5 646 of area types of seismic source zones must be identified by interpretation of the correlation between
6
7 647 past earthquakes and tectonic features following the process of expert elicitation so that it may need
8 648 only minor changes in the future.
9 649 (v) For each area source, a realistic estimate of the maximum earthquake magnitude should be
10 650 arrived at by applying all possible methods commonly used worldwide for the purpose. A suitable
11 651 earthquake recurrence model should be defined for each source using available data on past
12
13 652 seismicity with the completeness of the data in different magnitude ranges taken into account. Before
14 653 finalization, the recurrence model should be validated by the GPS-based strain rate data, if available.
15 654 (vi) The magnitudes within a small interval close to the largest possible earthquake in an area
16 655 source are expected to be associated with specific faults only. Thus, each area source must identify
17
18
656 the active faults with their detailed geometry, possible maximum magnitude, slip rate, and average
19 657 recurrence period of the maximum magnitude to be used as independent seismic sources. A project
20 658 on active fault mapping in Earthquake Zones IV and V of the existing seismic zone map (Zones V
21 659 and VI in the new map) is being executed already by the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of
22 660 India, which may be extended to vulnerable areas in lower zones in the future. As the active fault
23
24 661 mapping project is going to be of a long-term nature, in the interim, active faults for earthquake
25 662 hazard mapping must be finalized by expert elicitation.
26 663 (vii) Realistic hazard assessment requires developing GMPEs specific to different source-to-site
27 664 path characteristics, as a minimum for prediction of ground motion due to: (a) local earthquakes in
28
665 the Himalayan plate boundary region, (b) local earthquakes in the plate vicinity region of northeast
29
30 666 India, (c) local earthquakes in intraplate area of Indo-Gangetic Plains, (d) Himalayan earthquakes in
31 667 the Indo-Gangetic Plains, (e) Indo-Burmese subduction zone earthquakes in northeast India, and (f)
32 668 local earthquakes in the intraplate region of Peninsular India. To collect the necessary data for this
33 669 purpose, a centrally coordinated multi-organizations national program for installing and recording
34
35 670 strong motion data in all parts of the country must be initiated immediately. Ensuring the continued
36 671 operational readiness of an already installed strong motion network is also of the essence.
37 672 (viii) Deep sediments can amplify or de-amplify the earthquake shaking induced at the basement
38 673 rock level, depending upon the intensity and frequency of shaking. Detailed soil columns above the
39
674 bedrock should also be characterized at every strong motion recording site to develop realistic
40
41 675 amplification factors for the ground motion at different types of site soil conditions. To quantify
42 676 realistically the basin effects in the ground motion prediction, the thickness of sediments up to the
43 677 basement rock and its stratification are required to be collected underneath each strong motion
44 678 recording site. Additionally, there is an urgent need to plan and implement the work for a collection
45
46
679 of soil column characteristics including stratification and depth to bedrock for the entire Indian land
47 680 mass at a closer grid spacing. This would enable the implementation of soil amplification in PEHA
48 681 in a more realistic manner.
49 682 (ix) As the studies under items (vii) and (viii) above are of a long-term nature, an attempt must be
50 683 made in the meantime to create a strong motion database by collating the data available with
51
52 684 different organizations and individual researchers in the country. This database is expected to be
53 685 significantly large, which can be used in combination with suitably selected limited data from other
54 686 regions of the world to develop the required GMPEs for many regions of the country. Reasonably
55 687 realistic GMPEs also may be developed using a hybrid empirical method [Campbell, 2003] or the
56
57
688 referenced empirical approach [Atkinson, 2008] with the limited data available. Alternatively, data-
58 689 driven methods may be used with the available database to select appropriate GMPEs from other
59 690 data-rich regions of the world.
60 691
61 692 The implementation of the short-term components of the foregoing tasks may be initiated right away
62
63 693 to improve the characterization of seismic sources using a combination of area and fault sources, to
64 14
65
 694 improve earthquake recurrence models for area sources by validation with the GPS-based strain rate
695 data and for the fault sources by literature review and expert elicitation, and to have improved
696 GMPEs by making use of the available strong motion data. Over about five years, this should enable
697 the updated probabilistic seismic hazard maps of India in terms of the contour maps for PGA and
1
2 698 response spectrum amplitudes at selected natural periods as per the current international practice.
3 699
4 700
5 701 9. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION
6
7
8 702 Currently, over 79% of India’s population lives on ~57% of its land that is under the threat of
9 703 moderate to severe earthquake hazard. Also, by 2046, the urban population in India is estimated to
10 704 cross the rural population; which is only 30% at present. The growing population and the rural-to-
11 705 urban migration pose extreme pressure for a fast pace of development in urban India, especially
12
706 because of the large infrastructure requirement. If all these developments are to be sustainable, the
13
14 707 revision of earthquake hazard is an urgent need.
15
708 The existing zone map of India is based mainly on the observed MSK64 Intensity levels of
16
17 709 earthquake ground shaking at different locations during past earthquakes. The Earthquake Zones II,
18 710 III, IV, and V correspond to the intensity of VI (or less), VII, VIII, and IX (and above) and are
19 711 assigned PGA values of 0.1g, 0.16g, 0.24g, and 0.36g, respectively. These PGA values are NOT
20 712 derived based on any quantitative earthquake hazard assessment and are abysmally low, especially
21
22
713 for the higher earthquake zones. For example, the regions of the Himalayan plate boundary and
23 714 northeast India with the potential to produce earthquakes exceeding magnitude 8.0 are covered by
24 715 Earthquake Zones IV and V with design PGA values of 0.24g and 0.36g, respectively, whereas the
25 716 1897 Great Shillong Plateau Earthquake in northeast India is reported to have resulted in PGA values
26 717 more than 1.0g. The design accelerations in similar areas worldwide are taken to be two times (or
27
28 718 more) compared to that in the existing zone map of India.
29 719 A new earthquake zone map of India is therefore developed based on PGA values corresponding to a
30
31 720 return period of 2,475 years from the state-of-the-art PEHA with a lower threshold value in areas of
32 721 no past seismicity determined by a deterministic analysis. The landmass of the entire country is
33 722 divided into five seismic zones (Zone II: 0-0.15g; III: 0.15-0.3g; IV: 0.3-0.45g; V: 0.45-0.6g; VI:
34 723 0.6-0.75g) with the upper bound of the PGA value as the Earthquake Zone Factor of that zone. The
35
724 new zones and their zone factors can be considered to represent the level and spatial distribution of
36
37 725 earthquake hazard more realistically vis-à-vis what can be experienced during the expected
38 726 maximum magnitudes of future earthquakes in different parts of the countries.
39
40 727 A major limitation of the current map is that the effect of the active faults could not be modeled
41 728 explicitly due to a lack of knowledge about the fault recurrence characteristics. However, this has
42 729 been compensated to a very good extent by using an elliptical gridded seismicity model over all the
43 730 area source zones of high seismicity. This method has been adopted for regions elsewhere in the
44
45
731 world, and sometimes with even coarser quality of data. Further, it was a compulsion to use global
46 732 ground motion prediction models in the parameter estimation set-up due to the lack of sufficient
47 733 strong motion records and robust ground motion models. Also, due to a lack of basin structure and
48 734 site soil information, the site amplification factors could be accounted for only approximately with
49 735 slight conservatism. As discussed in the previous section, substantial improvements in infrastructure
50
51 736 for data collection, apart from processing and easy dissemination are needed before future revisions
52 737 of earthquake hazard, to upscale the quality of the next edition of earthquake hazard estimate of
53 738 India. Additionally, physics-based earthquake hazard estimates coupled with realistic measured slip
54 739 rates may become necessary, especially to capture the effects of characteristics of near-fault ground
55
740 motions at distances away from the fault.
56
57 741
58 742
59 743 References
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 906 68. Yenier, E., Erdoğan, O., & Akkar, S., (2008), Empirical relationships for magnitude and source-
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908 The 14th world conference on earthquake engineering, 1-8
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6
7 914 Society of America, 96(3), 898–913
8 915
9 916
10 917
11 918
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13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
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30
31
32
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64 19
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 Table 1. Earthquake Zones of India reduced with each subsequent revision, owing to increased
perception of earthquake threat.
Year of Release of Zone Maps
1 1962 1966 1984 2002
2 0 0
3 I
4 I I II
5 II II II
6 III III III III
7 IV IV VI IV
8
9 V V
V V
10 VI VI
11
12 919
13
14 920
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64 20
65
 921 Table 2. Recurrence parameters and the maximum magnitudes for various area type of source zones.
922
Weichert Method
Kijko's Method
1 No.of (1980)
Source
2 Zones Mmax earth-
No. b std (b b std (b
3 quakes N(4) N(4)
4 value value) value value)
5
6 SZ 1 Western Himalaya 8.3 1153 0.82 0.02 6.33 0.89 0.04 5.61
7 SZ 2 Central Himalaya I 8.3 455 0.81 0.03 5.89 0.77 0.06 3.16
8 Central Himalaya
9
10
SZ 3 II 8.3 477 0.78 0.03 5.80 0.79 0.06 2.89
11 SZ 4 Eastern Himalaya 8.3 222 0.71 0.04 5.17 0.72 0.07 1.93
12 SZ 5 Mishmi Block 8.6 221 0.82 0.05 5.62 0.68 0.06 3.49
13 AltyaTegh&
14
15 SZ 6 Karakoram 7.5 908 0.98 0.03 6.89 0.92 0.05 8.51
16 SZ 7 Naga Thrust 6.8 37 0.72 0.11 4.45 0.68 0.16 0.35
17 SZ 8a Shillong Plateau & 8 74 0.76 0.08 4.89 0.75 0.08 0.89
18
19 SZ 8b Assam Valley 6.5 124 0.67 0.05 4.79 0.73 0.08 0.91
20 SZ 9 Bengal Basin 7.8 331 0.69 0.03 5.27 0.76 0.07 2.06
21 13.9
22 Indo-Burmese Arc
SZ 10 7.8 1030 0.97 0.03 6.90 0.84 0.04 0
23
24 Shan-Sagaing
25 SZ 11 Fault 8.3 253 0.76 0.04 5.43 0.70 0.07 4.01
26 SZ 12 West Andaman I 8.2 225 0.81 0.05 5.59 0.71 0.06 3.57
27
28
SZ 13 East Andaman I 7 323 0.79 0.04 5.66 0.64 0.06 5.30
29 SZ 14 West Andaman II 8.2 145 0.82 0.06 5.45 0.71 0.04 3.32
30 12.1
31 East Andaman II
SZ 15 7.3 930 0.84 0.03 6.31 0.63 0.02 5
32
33 SZ 16 SONATA 6.6 36 0.69 0.10 4.30 0.64 0.16 0.40
34 Eastern Passive
35 SZ 17 Margin 6.4 58 0.80 0.10 4.98 0.86 0.15 0.30
36 Mahanandi Graben
37
38 SZ 18 & Eastern Craton 6 16 0.76 0.17 4.25 0.75 0.19 0.29
39 SZ 19 Godavari Graben 6.3 10 0.92 0.28 4.66 0.86 0.20 0.16
40 Western Passive
41
42
SZ 20 Margin 6.5 155 0.86 0.07 5.64 0.91 0.12 0.48
43 SZ 21 Sindh-Punjab 6.5 115 0.76 0.06 5.10 0.84 0.11 0.81
44 SZ 22 Upper Punjab 7.8 292 0.83 0.04 5.78 1.03 0.08 2.23
45 SZ 23 Koh-e-Sulaiman 8 510 0.91 0.04 6.36 0.90 0.06 5.82
46
47 SZ 24 Quetta-Sibi 8 378 0.81 0.04 5.81 0.80 0.07 4.00
48 Southern
49 SZ 25 Baluchistan 8 306 0.85 0.05 5.90 0.77 0.08 3.76
50
51
Eastern
52 SZ 26 Afghanistan 7.8 744 0.98 0.04 6.81 0.96 0.06 6.90
53 SZ 27a 8.2 71 0.63 0.07 4.36 0.88 0.11 0.68
54 Gujarat Region
SZ 27b 6.3 34 0.64 0.10 4.11 0.88 0.13 0.24
55
56 SZ 28a Aravali- 6.6 72 0.78 0.08 4.99 0.88 0.12 0.55
57 SZ 28b Bundelkhand 6.3 79 0.71 0.07 4.72 0.84 0.12 0.38
58 SZ 29 Southern Craton 6.3 67 0.78 0.09 4.93 1.11 0.16 0.36
59
60
Hindukush and 80.3
61 SZ 30 Pamirs 8.3 7835 1.04 0.01 8.06 0.96 0.02 9
62 SZ 31 Gangetic region 6.8 35 0.70 0.11 4.35 0.87 0.17 0.19
63
64 21
65
 SZ 32 Bay of Bengal 6.6 62 0.73 0.08 4.72 0.60 0.14 0.94
18.2
Tibet region
SZ 33 8 1065 0.86 0.02 6.45 0.87 0.05 8
1 923
2 924
3
4 925 Table3. Maximum Frequent Earthquake (MFE) magnitudes and focal depths for the various source
5 926 zones considered to arrive at the lower-bound DEHA hazard estimates.
6
7 Seismogenic Source Zones MFE Focal Depth (km)
8 Magnitude
9 SZs 1 to 4 (Himalayan Thrust Belt) 6.5 20
10 SZ 5 (Mishmi Block) 6.5 20
11
12 SZs 6 & 33 (Tibetan Plateau) 6.5 20
13 SZ 7 (Naga-Dishang Thrusts) 6.0 25
14 SZ 8a (Shillong Plateau) 6.5 30
15 SZ 8b (Brahmaputra Valley) 6.0 25
16
17 SZ 9 (Bengal Basin) 6.5 30
18 SZ 10 (Indo-Burmese Arc) 6.5 30
19 SZ 11 (Burmese Subduction) 7.0 100
20
21
SZs 12 to 15 (Andaman Subduction) 6.5 25
22 SZ 16 SONATA Zone 5.0 20
23 SZ 17 (Eastern Passive Margin) 5.0 15
24 SZ 18 (Mahanadi Graben) 5.0 15
25
26
SZ 19 (Godavari Graben) 5.0 15
27 SZ 20 (Western Passive Margin, North of 16N) 5.5 10
28 SZ 20 (Western Passive Margin, South of 16N) 5.0 15
29
30
SZ 21 (Punjab Shelf) 5.0 20
31 SZs 22 to 25 (Kirthar-Sulaiman Ranges) 6.5 20
32 SZ 26 (Afghan Block) 6.5 20
33 SZ 27a (Katchchh Rift) 6.0 20
34
35
SZ 27b (Saurashtra Horst) 5.0 15
36 SZ 28a (Delhi Fold Belt) 5.5 15
37 SZ 28b (Rajasthan & Uttar Pradesh Shelfs) 5.0 20
38 SZ 29 (Southern Craton) 5.0 15
39
40 SZ 30 (Hindukush& Pamir) 7.0 200
41 SZ 31 (Gangetic BasinNorth of 25N) 6.5 50
42 SZ 31 (Gangetic Basin South of 25N) 5.5 15
43
44
SZ 32 (Bay of Bengal) 6.0 20
45 927
46 928
47 929 Table 4. Amplification factors for PGA values at Site classes C and D
48 930
49
50 PGA at bedrock Amplification
51 (Site Classes A & Site Classes A & B Site Class C Site Class D
52 B)in units of g Vs> 760m/s 760m/s >Vs> 360m/s 360m/s >Vs> 180m/s
53
0.0 – 0.15 1.0 2.0 (1.83 ± 0.19) 2.50 (1.91 ± 0.60)
54
55 0.15 – 0.30 1.0 1.9 (1.73 ± 0.14) 2.20 (1.66 ± 0.55)
56 0.30 – 0.45 1.0 1.8 (1.65 ± 0.13) 2.00 (1.48 ± 0.51)
57 0.45 – 0.60 1.0 1.7 (1.58 ± 0.12) 1.85 (1.37 ± 0.50)
58
59
> 0.60 1.0 1.6 (1.48 ± 0.13) 1.70 (1.22 ± 0.49)
60 931
61 932
62 933
63
64 22
65
 934
935
936
937 Table 5. Proposed amplification factors for each of the lithological groups, to be used for obtaining
1
2 938 final hazard map
3 939
4 Lithological Groups Amplification Factor
5 Metamorphic and Volcanic Rocks 1.25
6
7 Sedimentary Rocks 1.50
8 Laterite Layers 1.75
9 Alluvium 1.85
10 940
11
12 941 Table 6. Proposed Reference Zone Factors Zref with respect to reference TRP of 2,475 years
13
14 Earthquake Zone Zref
15
16 II 0.15
17 III 0.30
18 IV 0.45
19
20 V 0.60
21 VI 0.75
22 942
23
24 943
25
26 944 Table 7. Return Period TRP (years) to be used for the Strength Design and Serviceability Check of
27 945 different Categories of Structures
28
29 Category of Structures Return Period TRP (years)
30 Strength Design Serviceability Check
31 Normal Structures 475 73
32 Important Structures 975 225
33
34 Critical and Lifeline Structures 2,475 475
35 Special Structures 4,995 975
36 Nuclear Power Plant Structures To be specified by the appropriate statutory authority
37
946
38
39 947
40 948 Table 8. Probability of exceeding the design PGA in different Earthquake Zones for different Return
41 949 Period TRP (years)
42
43 Design LifeTD Return Period TRP (years)
44 = 50 years 73 225 475 975 2,475 4,975 9,975
45 0.50 0.20 0.10 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.005
Probability of Exceeding
46
47 Design PGA
48 950
49 951
50 952 Table 9. Scaling Factors for Earthquake Zone Factors Z in different Earthquake Zones for different
51
52 953 Return Periods TRP (years)
53 954
54 Return Period TRP (years)
55 73 225 475 975 2,475 4,975 9,975
56
57 Z73 Z225 Z 475 Z975 Z 2 , 475 Z 4 ,975 Z9 ,975
58 Earthquake Zone Z2 , 475 Z2 , 475 Z2 , 475 Z2 , 475 Z 2 , 475 Z 2 , 475 Z 2 , 475
59
60 II and III 0.25 0.33 0.50 0.67 1.00 1.33 1.67
61 (1/4) (1/3) (1/2) (2/3) (4/3) (5/3)
62 IV, V and VI 0.40 0.50 0.67 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.50
63
64 23
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 (2/5) (1/2) (2/3) (4/5) (5/4) (6/4)
955
956
1
957 Table 10. Earthquake Zone Factors Z for different return periods TRP
2 958
3 Earthquake Zone Factors Z
4 Earthquake for different return periods TRP (years)
5
6
Zone 73 225 475 975 2,475 4,975 9,975
7 II 0.0375 0.0500 0.0750 0.1000 0.15 0.2000 0.2500
8 III 0.0750 0.1000 0.1500 0.2000 0.30 0.4000 0.5000
9 IV 0.1800 0.2250 0.3000 0.3600 0.45 0.5400 0.6750
10
11 V 0.2400 0.3000 0.4000 0.4800 0.60 0.7500 0.9000
12 VI 0.3000 0.3750 0.5000 0.6000 0.75 0.9375 1.1250
13 959
14 960
15
16
17
961
18
19 962
20
21 963
22
23 964
24
25
26
965
27
28 966
29
30 967
31
32 968
33
34
969
35
36
37 970
38
39 971
40
41 972
42
43
973
44
45
46 974
47
48 975
49
50 976
51
52
977
53
54
55 978
56
57 979
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59 980
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24 981
25 982 Figure 1. Early zone Map of India by a Railway Engineer [Kumar, 1933]
26
983
27
28 984
29 985
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31 986
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33 987
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35
36 988
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38 989
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40 990
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20 (a) (b)
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44
(c) (d)
45
46 Figure 2. Formal Earthquake Zone Maps of India since 1962 [Jain, 2016] (a) 1962 edition, (b) 1966
47 edition, (c) 1970 version, and (d) 2002 edition (Redrawn based on IS 1893:1962, IS 1893:1966,
48 IS 1893:1984 and IS 1893:2002)
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34 991
35 992
36 993 Figure 3. Fault map of India and adjoining regions showing the 33 Seismogenic Source Zones
37 994 considered in the study [GSI, 2000; Styron et al., 2010], and some cities with population
38
39
995 exceeding one million
40
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33 996
34 997
35 998 Figure 4. Epicenteral map of the homogenized and declusterd catalogue showing the 33
36 999 Seismogenic Source Zones along with some cities with population exceeding one million
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38 1000
39 1001 Figure 5. PEHA contour map of PGA corresponding to 2,475years return period
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34 1002
35 1003
36
1004 Figure 6. DEHA contour map of PGA for the median estimate (50% confidence level)
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35 1005
36 1006 Figure 7. Final contour map (max of DEHA and PEHA) of PGA corresponding to 2,475 years return
37 1007 period
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34 1008
35 1009 Figure 8. Principal lithological groups in India digitised as per [GSI, 2000]
36
1010
37
38 1011
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53 1012
54 1013 (a)
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11 1014
12 1015 (b)
13 1016 Figure 9. Variations in average shear wave velocity and depth of soil column in 250 profiles
14 1017 considered with Soil strata having: (a) 180 m/s ≤ Vs≤ 360 m/s, and (b) 360 m/s ≤ Vs≤ 760 m/s
15 1018
16 1019
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55 1020
56 1021
57 1022 Figure 10. Hazard map of India after multiplying the rock level PGA values with the amplification
58
59
1023 factors deduced for the various lithological units
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35 1024
36 1025
37 1026 Figure 11. Raw zone map of India based on the hazard map shown in Figure 10
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35 1027
36 1028 Figure 12. Earthquake zone map of India with (dark lines) and without (coloured areas)
37 1029 smoothening
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36 1030
37 1031 Figure 13. The newzone map of India finalized with smoothed zone boundaries
38 1032
39 1033
40 2.0
41
42
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44 1.5
45
Z / Z 2,475

46
47 1.0
48 0.42
49 0.26
50
51 0.5 II, III
52 IV, V, VI
53
54 0.0
55
56 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000
57
58
1034 Return Period T RP (Years)
59 Figure 14. Scaling Factor of Earthquake Zone Factors adopted by IS 1893 (Part 1) in 2023
60
61 1035
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 1036
1037
1038
1 1039 Appendix
2 1040
3 1041
4 1042
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46 1043
47 1044 Figure A1. Seismicity consistent with new Earthquake Zone Map of India
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37 1045
38 1046
39 1047 Figure A2. Faults consistent with new Earthquake Zone Map of India
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42 1049
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