Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Nikos Kokonas1
University of Bath
Department of Economics
Semester 1
2020-21
1
I would like to thank Andreas Schaefer for sharing his slides with me
Contents
Topic 2) Consumption and Savings: Diamond versus Ramsey
1. Introduction
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1. Introduction
Literature
Remark:
Solow does not contain the first two sections of the lecture. Again you
should read what you like most. Acemoglu is again very detailed.
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1. Introduction
• The question we try to solve here and in the next topic has far
reaching implications for many applications
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1. Introduction
• savings decisions of households (and investment decisions of
firms) are forward looking
• they are inherently dynamic and not static
→ If you are looking ahead, you are the master of the day
(Goethe, "Wer vorsieht ist der Herr des Tages")
• the literature suggests two views
(1) overlapping generations (OLG) models with life-cycle savings
(Diamond)
(2) optimal savings decision maximizing the welfare of a dynasty
(Ramsey)
• the fundamental difference between the two
• the degree of altruism of agents with respect to the impact of their
decisions on the welfare of future generations
• OLG models [(1)] consider rather selfish agents which care only
about their own life cycle
• dynastic frameworks [(2)] maximize the welfare of a dynasty from
time 0...∞
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1. Introduction
• the application of both concepts depends on the research
question
• sustainability of pension funds and social security systems is
usually analyzed with OLG models
• insights regarding sustainable development depend obviously on
how altruistic agents are
• life cycle models are more appropriate for modeling of
intergenerational interactions like educational investments of
parents into their kids
• the Ramsey setup is the workhorse model in the endogenous
growth literature because of its demographic simplicity
• we proceed as follows
• Microeconomic foundations of savings
• Diamond model
• Ramsey model
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2. Microeconomic Foundations of Savings
• the micro-economic foundation of savings decisions requires a
utility function and a budget constraint
• trick: consumption today (c1 ) and consumption tomorrow (c2 )
are considered as different goods
• utility function
u = u(c1 , c2 ) (1)
• budget constraint
(a) consumption in period 2
c2 = w2 + (w1 − c1 )(1 + r ) (2)
r: interest rate
w1 , w2 : income in period 1,2
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2. Microeconomic Foundations of Savings
Graphical illustration of a two-period model (1)
2: Die reale Makroökonomik
c2 income is w1 and w2
suppose household can neither borrow nor save
M
w2
‐(1+r)
c1
0 w1
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2. Microeconomic Foundations of Savings
Graphical illustration of a two-period model (2)
2: Die reale Makroökonomik
c2
Only by accident, M would constitute
a utility maximum
M
w2
ICM
‐(1+r)
c1
0 w1
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2. Microeconomic Foundations of Savings
Graphical illustration of a two-period model (3)
2: Die reale Makroökonomik
c2
More likely event ...
which is not a utility maximum
M
w2
ICR1
‐(1+r)
c1
0 w1
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2. Microeconomic Foundations of Savings
Graphical illustration of a two-period model (4)
2: Die reale Makroökonomik
c2
utility maximum requires transition
from M to R
M
w2
ICR2
ICR1
‐(1+r)
c1
0 w1
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2. Microeconomic Foundations of Savings
Graphical illustration of a two-period model (5)
Teil 2: Die reale Makroökonomik
c2
M
w2
(i)
ICR2
ICR1
‐(1+r)
c1
0 w1 c1
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2. Microeconomic Foundations of Savings
Graphical illustration of a two-period model (6)
Teil 2: Die reale Makroökonomik
c2
(i)
ICR2
ICR1
‐(1+r)
c1
0 w1 c1
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2. Microeconomic Foundations of Savings
Graphical illustration of a two-period model (7)
Teil 2: Die reale Makroökonomik
c2
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2. Microeconomic Foundations of Savings
Graphical illustration of a two-period model (8)
Teil 2: Die reale Makroökonomik
c2
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
• individuals at different stages of their life-cycles interact on
markets
• simplest form of an OLG model is sufficient for many applications
[Allais (1947), Samuelson (1958), and Diamond (1965)]
• individuals live for two periods; one period amounts to around 30
years
• at any point in time, the economy is composed of two cohorts
(=generations): young and old
• first period of life
• individuals work and supply one unit of labor earning a real
wage of wt
• individuals consume and save part of their income for
second-period consumption.
• old agents retire and consume their savings plus accrued
interests.
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
Graphical illustration of a two-period OLG model
1 2 3 4 5
time
young
1
generation/cohort
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
Graphical illustration of a two-period OLG model
1 2 3 4 5
time
young old
1
generation/cohort
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
Graphical illustration of a two-period OLG model
1 2 3 4 5
time
young old
1
young old
2
young old
3
young old
4
generation/cohort
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
Graphical illustration of a two-period OLG model
1 2 3 4 5
time
young old
1
young and old
young old individuals interact
2 on markets
young old
3
young old
4
generation/cohort
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
• so far we illustrated the intertemporal decision of households to
save
• and the demographic structure of a two period OLG model
• we now turn to the general equilibrium structure
• remember that again I = S
• in contrast to the previous chapter we consider discrete time, i.e.
t = 1, 2, 3, .., ∞
• the change in the capital stock from one period to another is
positive, if aggregate investment exceed aggregate capital
depreciation
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
Graphical illustration of a two-period OLG model
firms produce ,
period period
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
Graphical illustration of a two-period OLG model
firms produce ,
period period
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
Graphical illustration of a two-period OLG model
firms produce ,
period period
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
Graphical illustration of a two-period OLG model
old agents own and young agents supply labor old agents own and young agents supply labor
receive capital incomes and receive capital incomes and
recieve labor incomes recieve labor incomes
old agents consume their young agents consume old agents consume their young agents consume
capital incomes part of their income capital incomes part of their income
period period
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
• lifetime utility: individuals derive utility out of first and
second-period consumption c1t and c2t+1
1
U(c1t , c2t+1 ) = u(c1t ) + u(c2t+1 ) (5)
1+θ
• agents work only in their first period of life and supply one unit of
time
→ wage income wt equals the present value of consumption
expenditures
c2t+1
wt = c1t + (6)
1 + rt+1
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
• savings (s1t ) equal the present value of future consumption, i.e.
c2t+1
s1t = 1+r t+1
• solving (6) for c1t and substituting for c1t in (5) yields a modified
utility function (you can also use Lagrange)
c2t+1 1
Ū = u(wt − )+ u(c2t+1 ), (7)
1 + rt+1 1+θ
• from ∂ Ū
∂c2t+1 = 0 we obtain
1 + rt+1 0
u 0 (c1t ) = u (c2t+1 ) (8)
1+θ
→ Euler equation
→ economic interpretation???
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
• Euler equation
1 + rt+1 0
u 0 (c1t ) = u (c2t+1 ) (9)
| {z } 1 + θ | {z }
marg. utility in 1 marg. utility in 2
1+rt+1
• if 1+θ = 1 → u 0 (c1t ) = u 0 (c2t+1 ) which implies c1t = c2t+1
• 1 + rt+1 expresses the discount factor of the market (c1t versus
c2t+1 )
• 1 + θ expresses the psychological discount factor of an
individual (c1t versus c2t+1 )
• if 1+rt+1
1+θ > 1 the compensation for forgone current consumption
by the market is higher than the individual compensation, such
that the willingness to save increases
1+rt+1
• if 1+θ < 1 the willingness to save shrinks
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
• the savings decision (s1t ) of a household is obtained from the
Euler equation and the budget constraint
• in this general form, an analytical solution for s1t does not exist
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
Canonical form of the OLG model
• budget constraint
• final output
Yt = Ktα L1−α
t , α ∈ (0, 1) (15)
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
Optimal decisions of households (1)
old agents own and young agents supply labor old agents own and young agents supply labor
receive capital incomes and receive capital incomes and
recieve labor incomes recieve labor incomes
old agents consume their young agents consume old agents consume their young agents consume
capital incomes part of their income capital incomes part of their income
period period
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
Profit maximizing decisions of firms (1)
π = Ktα L1−α
t − wt Lt − (rt + δ)Kt (20)
αktα−1 = rt + δ (21)
Kt
with kt = Lt .
• common assumption in two-period OLG models: δ = 1 →
1 + rt+1 = αktα−1
∂π
• ∂Lt = 0 implies
(1 − α)ktα = wt (22)
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
Profit maximizing decisions of firms (2)
old agents own and young agents supply labor old agents own and young agents supply labor
receive capital incomes and receive capital incomes and
recieve labor incomes recieve labor incomes
old agents consume their young agents consume old agents consume their young agents consume
capital incomes part of their income capital incomes part of their income
period period
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
Capital accumulation (1)
• as we imposed δ = 1
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
Capital accumulation (2)
old agents own and young agents supply labor old agents own and young agents supply labor
receive capital incomes and receive capital incomes and
recieve labor incomes recieve labor incomes
old agents consume their young agents consume old agents consume their young agents consume
capital incomes part of their income capital incomes part of their income
period period
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
Capital intensity (1)
Kt+1 β
= (1 − α)ktα (27)
Lt 1+β
Kt+1 Lt+1 β
= (1 − α)ktα (28)
Lt+1 L 1+β
| {zt }
1+n
(29)
β(1 − α)
kt+1 = kα (30)
(1 + β)(1 + n) t
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
Capital intensity (2)
• From
β(1 − α)
kt+1 = kα (31)
(1 + β)(1 + n) t
(32)
β(1 − α)
k∗ = kα (33)
(1 + β)(1 + n) ∗
h β(1 − α) i 1−α 1
⇒ k∗ = (34)
(1 + β)(1 + n)
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
Capital intensity (3)
Graphical solution of
β(1 − α)
kt+1 = kα (35)
(1 + β)(1 + n) t
(36)
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
Steady state of kt+1 (1)
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݇௧
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
Steady state of kt+1 (1)
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
Steady state of kt+1 (1)
steady state: ∗
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
Steady state of kt+1 (2): stability
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
Steady state of kt+1 (2): stability
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
Steady state of kt+1 (2): stability
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
Steady state of kt+1 (2): stability
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
Steady state of kt+1 (2): stability
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
Steady state of kt+1 (2): stability
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
Increase in savings (β ↑)
∗ ∗
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
Increase in population growth (n ↑)
∗ ∗
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
Remarks and further applications (1)
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3. The Diamond OLG Model
From selfish to altruistic agents (2)
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4. The Ramsey Model
Graphical illustration of the equilibrium
households consume ,
hold assets and
accumulate assets by
savings
firms
,
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4. The Ramsey Model
• the representative household maximizes
Z ∞
V (t) = e−ρt u(c(t))dt, (43)
0
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4. The Ramsey Model
• specifying u(c(t))
(
c(t)1−σ −1
u(c(t)) = 1−σ , if σ 6= 1 (45)
ln c(t), if σ = 1
u(c(t)) is a CIES utility function (constant intertemporal elasticity
of substitution)
• σ measures the elasticity of marginal utility, i.e. the willingness to
shift consumption from the present into the future
• σ is a measure for the curvature of the utility function
• you don’t need to know the solution method for the exam. I will
provide a mathematical appendix for those who are interested
• the maximization of V (t) subject to ȧ yields the famous
Keynes-Ramsey rule
ċ 1
= (r − ρ) (46)
c σ
→ economic intuition?
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4. The Ramsey Model
Economic intuition
k̇ = f (k ) − c − δk , (48)
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4. The Ramsey Model
Steady state (1)
ċ = k̇ = 0 (50)
ċ = 0→ f 0 (k ∗ ) = δ + ρ ⇒ k ∗ (51)
∗ ∗ ∗
k̇ = 0→ c = f (k ) − δk (52)
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4. The Ramsey Model
Some remarks (1)
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4. The Ramsey Model
Some remarks (2)
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4. The Ramsey Model
Some remarks (3)