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How Do Leaders Make Decisions A Poliheuristic Perspective
How Do Leaders Make Decisions A Poliheuristic Perspective
: A Poliheuristic Perspective
Author(s): Alex Mintz
Source: The Journal of Conflict Resolution , Feb., 2004, Vol. 48, No. 1, The Poliheuristic
Theory of Foreign Policy Decision Making (Feb., 2004), pp. 3-13
Published by: Sage Publications, Inc.
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The Journal of Conflict Resolution
A POLIHEURISTIC PERSPECTIVE
ALEX MINTZ
Department of Political Science
Texas A&M University
Yale University
Poliheuristic theory (PH) bridges the gap between cognitive and rational theories of decision making. PH
postulates a two-stage decision process. During the first stage, the set of possible options is reduced by
applying a "noncompensatory principle" to eliminate any alternative with an unacceptable return on a criti-
cal, typically political, decision dimension. Once the choice set has been reduced to alternatives that are
acceptable to the decision maker, the process moves to a second stage, during which the decision maker uses
more analytic processing in an attempt to minimize risks and maximize benefits. In this article, the author
applies poliheuristic theory to individual, sequential, and interactive decision settings. Subsequent articles in
this issue offer theoretical extensions and multiple tests of the theory using multiple methods (formal, statis-
tical, experimental).
How do foreign leaders, such as Yasser Arafat and Bashir Assad, make decisions?
How did American presidents, such as George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Dwight
Eisenhower, and Ronald Reagan, decide to use force or to refrain from using force?
The leading decision paradigm in international relations is the rational actor, expected
utility theory. According to this theory, nations are led by rational, forward-looking
leaders who seek to maximize the expected gains of policy choices in a holistic and
compensatory (additive) fashion (Bueno de Mesquita and Lalman 1992).'
This special issue offers an alternative to the expected utility (EU) theory of deci-
sion and other rational-analytic decision models. Poliheuristic (PH) choice theory
postulates a two-stage decision process in which the menu for choice is narrowed ini-
tially by a noncompensatory analysis that eliminates options by the use of one or more
heuristics (cognitive shortcuts). Remaining alternatives are then evaluated in an
attempt to minimize risks and maximize benefits (Mintz 1993). Examples of the
noncompensatory heuristic that guides the elimination of options are threats to a
leader's political survival and political constraints on the use of force.
1. Other important decision theories are bureaucratic politics, cybernetic theory, and prospect theory.
TABLE 1
TABLE 2
TABLE 3
Hafez al-Assad Syria Syria's peace and war decisions Astorino-Courtois and Trusty
vis-a-vis Israel (2000)
Yasser Arafat Palestinian Patterns of conflictual and Clare (2003)
Authority cooperative interactions
with Israel
Yasser Arafat Palestinian Decisions during the Palestinian Mintz and Mishal (2003)
Authority Intifada of 2000-2002
Saddam Hussein Iraq Gulf War of 1991 Mintz (2000)
Netanyahu, Peres, Israel Decisions before and after the Clare (2003)
Rabin Oslo Accord of 1993
Ariel Sharon Israel Decisions during the Intifada Mintz and Mishal (2003)
satisfied for fear of political repercussions." Mintz and Geva (1993) showed that the
noncompensatory principle of poliheuristic theory helps explain the democratic peace
phenomenon because leaders of democracies refrain from attacking another democ-
racy because it is politically too costly. However, no such constraint is placed on demo-
cratic leaders when the opponent is nondemocratic (Mintz and Geva 1993). The
authors also showed that the noncompensatory principle played a role in President
Bush's 1991 war termination decision not to pursue Saddam Hussein in Baghdad
when then-president Bush was enjoying very high levels of public approval (Mintz
and Geva 1998).
Studies of poliheuristic theory have thus far only used case studies and experimen-
tal analysis. The contributors to this special issue offer multiple tests of poliheuristic
theory with multiple methods (formal, statistical, and experimental).
The term poliheuristic can be broken down into "the roots poly (ma
tic (shortcuts), which alludes to the cognitive mechanisms used by de
to simplify complex foreign policy decisions" (Mintz et al. 1997, 55
refers to the notion that political leaders measure gains and losses in
Poliheuristic theory postulates that when making decisions, policy m
two-stage decision process consisting of (a) rejecting alternatives that
able to the policy maker on a critical dimension or dimensions and
alternative from the subset of remaining alternatives while maximizi
minimizing risks (see Mintz 1993, 2003; Mintz and Geva 1997; Mintz et al. 19
Payne, Bettman, and Johnson 1993).2
Poliheuristic theory sees domestic politics as "the essence of decision." High
cal audience costs are nonadditive. Avoiding major loss is noncompensatory (se
Goertz 2004). Domestic political audience costs are an integral part of foreign
decision making. Policy makers are political actors whose self-interest in politic
vival is paramount (Russett and Barzilai 1992; Sathasivam 2003). Consequently
icy makers are likely to reject outright any alternative that poses potentially ver
political costs, even if that same alternative also yields potentially high benef
other dimensions (although military and strategic considerations are also no
pensatory under certain conditions).
TWO-STAGE GAMES
2. Experimental studies have shown that analytic decision models, such as expected utilit
likely to be employed by decision makers when the number of alternatives available to the leader
Poliheuristic theory can be refuted and falsified by finding the decision process to
be compensatory, alternative based, holistic, or order insensitive. As the authors of
articles in this issue show, however, the theory is quite robust.
AN EXAMPLE OF
PO,IHEURISTIC DECISION MAKING
3. In these situations, the poliheuristic (PH) model resembles the logic of the iterat
elimination procedure in game theory, yet the PH model specifically predicts that the po
noncompensatory, assumes a two-stage process rather than an iterated elimination process co
eral steps, uses decision weights, and is also applicable to very complex decision situatio
players with multiple options. In dynamic situations, the PH model often predicts outcomes
from those reached using games of strategic interactions that are based on rational choi
settings, PH eliminates from the outset unacceptable alternatives (such as doing nothing),
tives do not reappear during the decision process.
nomic benefits, and the deployment of force alternative was not approved by m
of the parliament. In noncompensatory terms, there were no substitution eff
trade-offs between the political and economic dimensions of the decision.4
Turkey has been torn between widespread public opposition to a war agai
fellow Muslim state and intense pressure from Washington. At the time the d
was made, the expectations, according to Reuters (March 1, 2003), were that
would, "almost certainly, lose an almost concluded financial aid package amoun
some $6 billion in U.S. grants and up to $24 billion in loan guarantees." The p
for deployment of U.S. forces was rejected by the Turks, even in face of a ma
package from the United States and military-strategic commitment to Turkey f
United States and Great Britain. Opposition leader Deniz Baykal welcomed t
come and said, "This has shown again that the whole world now has to give impo
to national [public] opinion and show understanding of parliament when appr
Turkey" (Reuters, March 1, 2003).
Once the option to deploy U.S. forces on Turkish soil had been rejected by
ment, the Turkish government evaluated the remaining alternatives that adva
the second stage of the decision process and decided, in an attempt to minimize
costs and maximize benefits, to allow air passage over Turkey's airspace to co
planes.
The noncompensatory political loss aversion variable in poliheuristic theory can be
operationalized in several ways as follows:
4. A reviewer of this article has pointed out that a much larger amount of economic aid to Tu
have eventually "compensated" for domestic opposition to the deployment of U.S. troops.
* Identify poliheuristic equilibria, that is, spell out the conditions under which players in a
strategic setting reach an equilibrium in an interactive two-stage poliheuristic process.
* Compare PH conceptually and empirically to cybernetic and expected utility models of
the use of force. For example, compare PH findings to Ostrom and Job's (1986) and
Bueno de Mesquita and Lalman's (1992) findings.
* Assess whether bureaucratic/organizational political constraints or domestic political
constraints are more salient and influential as noncompensatory domestic dimensions of
decision making.
* Examine the impact of framing and marketing on poliheuristic choice. In contrast to
expected utility, PH is order sensitive. Is it also affected by the way alternatives, dimen-
sions, and implications are framed? Examine the link between affect and PH decision
making.
* Extend the PH model to group decision making and sequential decision making, which
characterize many foreign policy situations. The simplest representation of PH is as a sin-
gle individual making choices based on the noncompensatory decision principle. How-
ever, political choices in bureaucratic or democratic settings are often the product of
group and societal processes in which an individual leader must interact with others to
make and implement choices.
5. Consistent with the policy of the Journal of Conflict Resolution, articles in this issue
by at least two anonymous referees.
Specifically, in this special issue, Goertz (2004) uses formal theory and spatial
analysis to formalize and extend poliheuristic theory. Dacey and Carlson (2004) use a
formal model to compare decision making of experts and nonexperts in foreign policy.
DeRouen and Sprecher (2004) use probit analysis on a data set of N-nations' initial
reaction to international crisis. Christensen and Redd (2004) and Mintz (2004) use
experimental tests of the theory, and Stern (2004) provides a qualitative overview of
poliheuristic theory relating it to other emerging theories of foreign policy decision
making: problem representation, decision units, and cognitive constructivism.
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